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And From The Other Side of the Pond… – politicalbetting.com

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  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,692
    kinabalu said:

    I view them as our equivalent (although thankfully a pale imitation both in nature and number) of the Trump MAGA base in the US.
    Hm. A bit. But the circumstances are very different.
    That said, the average Trump voter is a long way from the stereotype of the Jan 6th nutter. It probably is the case that the average Trump voter trying his best in his difficult life in his left-behind town, perceiving the contempt of the Democrat elite is not that different from his Nige-voting British equivalent.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,047

    Is this really the best you can do?
    Yes Lucky, yes it is.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    kle4 said:

    What I don't get is why people think Trump is less in decline. His ramblings, never the most coherent, are nothing but stream of consciousness self focused nonsense, yet even on his own side Biden is the one people worry about.
    Trump’s probably a few years behind Biden, but his deterioration often comes across as bombast. Perhaps iit’s their different personalities, but Trump’s also not falling up stairs, reaching for an imaginary chair, or being physically disorientated.

    Both parties need to knock some heads together, and come up with a better option for the person they want to have their finger on the big red button.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    So, Ref plus 7 and 5 with Surv and BMG, plus 2 everyone else. Is it a surge or a small jump?? Will it hold? Will it expand? Things just got decidedly more interesting
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,274

    LAB 30 REF 32???
    CON 6
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    Sandpit said:

    How’s the weather in Odessa?
    It’s v plez. I’m going to SPUNK my one photo on my dinner. As it were. A fantastic grilled dorade with lovely white wine on the Black Sea. I can see towers missiled by Putin from where I type this. Blackened hulks. And yet the douceur du vivre abides. God bless the Ukes. Slava Ukraini!!!!

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,066
    Leon said:

    It’s v plez. I’m going to SPUNK my one photo on my dinner. As it were. A fantastic grilled dorade with lovely white wine on the Black Sea. I can see towers missiled by Putin from where I type this. Blackened hulks. And yet the douceur du vivre abides. God bless the Ukes. Slava Ukraini!!!!

    Any news on the frontline venture?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Sub samples of the YouGov poll
    Meaningless as not a representative sample
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    And under Johnson it probably still would be.
    Possibly… though the downward trend was underway while he was in charge, and certainly nudging 30%. More time would have meant more mistakes, more poor party management. We might not be having the sub-20 numbers but I still think they’d be in a pretty bad way.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2024
    England’s final Euro 2024 squad has just been announced.

    Goalkeepers Dean Henderson (Crystal Palace), Jordan Pickford (Everton), Aaron Ramsdale (Arsenal).

    Defenders Lewis Dunk (Brighton & Hove Albion), Joe Gomez (Liverpool), Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace), Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa), Luke Shaw (Manchester United), John Stones (Manchester City), Kieran Trippier (Newcastle United), Kyle Walker (Manchester City).

    Midfielders Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Conor Gallagher (Chelsea), Kobbie Mainoo (Manchester United), Declan Rice (Arsenal), Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace).

    Forwards: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Jarrod Bowen (West Ham United), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Phil Foden (Manchester City), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa).

    If they knew Maguire was buggered, I think I might have called up Eric Dier. He is no world beater but is tried and test at the highest level and actually been playing every week.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,066
    rcs1000 said:

    If there was a charismatic, young, popular Democrat ready to stand in and take the fight to Trump, then yes, that would be possible.

    But there is no obvious successor. Harris is Vice President, but has the charisma of... well... something without charisma. She would certainly want her shot against Trump, but why would the Democrats dump Biden for her?

    I would love to see Trump against Ossoff or Buttigieg: an articulate, "next generation" candidate. But I also also don't see any path for them win the Presidency to become the nominee.

    So, unless Biden has a major health event, then I really don't see the path for an alternative candidate.
    Yep. Biden is the candidate.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,752

    As Silicon Valley Tv show called it you were brain raped.
    Yep, never give away your knowledge for free. Minimally explain how you do something, not what you will do if assigned to the project. I have been caught out once by this. Never again!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,456
    edited June 2024
    Cookie said:

    I don't think so. A lot of the Lab vote comes from a 'kick the Tories' place. A lot of the LD vote comes from a 'plague on both your houses' place. Both of these are easily transferable to Reform.
    Their messaging back in 2019 was often deliberately targeted at Labour voters.

    https://x.com/reformparty_uk/status/1149009483600932864

    https://x.com/reformparty_uk/status/1143821408021168129
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Meaningless as not a representative sample
    I agree entirely
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,276
    Sandpit said:

    Trump’s probably a few years behind Biden, but his deterioration often comes across as bombast. Perhaps iit’s their different personalities, but Trump’s also not falling up stairs, reaching for an imaginary chair, or being physically disorientated.

    Both parties need to knock some heads together, and come up with a better option for the person they want to have their finger on the big red button.
    Far too late for that in actuality even if not technically.

    A frail old man or a loony authoritarian old man are the choices.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,508

    Hard to say. Move to Reform might have been larger without it?

    Reform looking to be the home of the protest vote this election. Not the LibDems.

    Greens holding up. Protest vote from Labour?
    We often say it takes a week or more for the impact of events to show up in the polls, so much of the Green rise could be fallout from the Diane Abbott / Labour selections mess. If so, you'd expect it to drift back to Labour again when people start thinking specifically about their local constituency rather than national events.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031
    kle4 said:

    Getting to three figures is now a par result for them. A good result is 150.
    Oh come on, I reckon they'll get at least 500 votes across the country.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,276

    Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named

    They may not fill all of them, but they'll get most I think.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2024

    Yep, never give away your knowledge for free. Minimally explain how you do something, not what you will do if assigned to the project. I have been caught out once by this. Never again!
    I made this mistake a few years ago, there is a very successful company I won't name who used a lot of what I stupidly said to them for free.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,066
    kle4 said:

    They may not fill all of them, but they'll get most I think.
    Maybe the 54 tories are the Reform candidates?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440
    boulay said:

    Yes Lucky, yes it is.
    Well then I feel Sunak may soon ask you to find alternative employment.
  • rcs1000 said:

    If there was a charismatic, young, popular Democrat ready to stand in and take the fight to Trump, then yes, that would be possible.

    But there is no obvious successor. Harris is Vice President, but has the charisma of... well... something without charisma. She would certainly want her shot against Trump, but why would the Democrats dump Biden for her?

    I would love to see Trump against Ossoff or Buttigieg: an articulate, "next generation" candidate. But I also also don't see any path for them win the Presidency to become the nominee.

    So, unless Biden has a major health event, then I really don't see the path for an alternative candidate.
    So why schedule a debate for June? (and it's worth adding here that the Dems suggested the timing.) Of course, Kamala would want to take over but the delegates would not be bound to vote for her in the same way as they would for Biden.
  • Usual echo chamber caveats apply, but most of my right of centre friends would rather push hot needles into their genitalia than lend a vote to a man that many of us regard as a neo-fascist who was called out as a racist by none other than his housemaster at school and separately, the founder of UKIP, Alan Sked.

    (None of my friends are into CBT so far as I know)
    I 100% wholeheartedly agree with you.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286

    Any news on the frontline venture?
    I have several choices

    1. Go to actual frontline at Kherson complete with flak jacket and hear actual missiles landing

    But then I’ve heard bits of missiles landing ON MY ROAD sufficient to cause minor detonations so… what’s the point? The war is here. It is in Odessa, and it really is. This is an air/drone war as much as anything else and I can see it right here, from my nice seafood restaurants

    2. Stay here. Nice seafood restaurants! Fascinating and dreamy Odessa. The lack of power and often internet is a bitch but you get used to it, maybe, somehow. Disadvantage, I have to go home via Chisinau and I am done with that bus journey and Chisinau is boring

    3. Go insane and go to Kharkiv and face even more missiles but without the seafood restaurants and less power

    4. (My fave at the mo). couple more days in Odessa eating fish and dodging drones and then do Kyiv. Never been. Am fascinated. What is the great city of Kyiv like right now? Another plus: I can avoid Chisinau and go home via beautiful Lviv then Cracow
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    England’s final Euro 2024 squad has just been announced.

    Goalkeepers Dean Henderson (Crystal Palace), Jordan Pickford (Everton), Aaron Ramsdale (Arsenal).

    Defenders Lewis Dunk (Brighton & Hove Albion), Joe Gomez (Liverpool), Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace), Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa), Luke Shaw (Manchester United), John Stones (Manchester City), Kieran Trippier (Newcastle United), Kyle Walker (Manchester City).

    Midfielders Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Conor Gallagher (Chelsea), Kobbie Mainoo (Manchester United), Declan Rice (Arsenal), Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace).

    Forwards: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Jarrod Bowen (West Ham United), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Phil Foden (Manchester City), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa).

    If they knew Maguire was buggered, I think I might have called up Eric Dier. He is no world beater but is tried and test at the highest level and actually been playing every week.

    Ten forwards, jeez.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,392
    Ghedebrav said:

    Polling *gap* between Lab and Con seems to be pretty consistent across the polls. Reds 18-20pp ahead, even if the headline figures are more variable.

    Four weeks till polling day - we’ve had a third of the campaign done, and that’s without being drowned out by the footy noise. Looking bleak for the Blues.

    Only four more weeks of this bullshit??

    #JustKiddin'
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    kle4 said:

    They may not fill all of them, but they'll get most I think.
    I'd expect so too but they've only added about a dozen since the election was called...........
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2024
    Ghedebrav said:

    Ten forwards, jeez.
    And its not like England play like the 1970s Brazil teams with all that attacking talent. I am not going to be shocked if at some point it ends up with 5 at the back plus 2 holding midfielders.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,392

    Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named

    I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031
    Cookie said:

    Hm. A bit. But the circumstances are very different.
    That said, the average Trump voter is a long way from the stereotype of the Jan 6th nutter. It probably is the case that the average Trump voter trying his best in his difficult life in his left-behind town, perceiving the contempt of the Democrat elite is not that different from his Nige-voting British equivalent.
    There are plenty of Trump voters in California and even in New York City. There are young people, old people, people in work and people out of work.

    And I think the dominant reason why Trump is - and should be - narrow favorite is that (as is pretty much universal across the developed world in the last few years) wages have not kept up with prices.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,456
    @Samfr

    Need to be really clear, because I can see the myth building already, that there is no evidence in the underlying data of these polls that Labour votes are going to Reform.

    Nor of fewer Tory/Labour switchers.

    Small Labour drops in 3 of 5 polls are driven by others things.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    There are plenty of Trump voters in California and even in New York City. There are young people, old people, people in work and people out of work.

    And I think the dominant reason why Trump is - and should be - narrow favorite is that (as is pretty much universal across the developed world in the last few years) wages have not kept up with prices.
    The inflation he hit those with few assets the hardest. If you don't own stock or a home, you are massively behind the 8 ball now, and you can't even go to McDonald's for 99c burger, that will be $15.

    The US used to be the land of cheap day to day living. That isn't the case anymore.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,752

    And under Johnson it probably still would be.
    That fat deluded twat is the reason the Tory brand has been so degraded. If Johnson were still there the Tories would be genuinely doomed, much more so than they currently appear. Johnsons bullshit is way way past it's sell by date even with the terminally stupid. Well most of them anyway except for William Volte Face Glenn it would seem!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,569

    I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
    Go for it, Sunil!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
    73 to fill
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,392

    Go for it, Sunil!
    Why? I would rather eat glass!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    And its not like England play like the 1970s Brazil teams with all that attacking talent. I am not going to be shocked if at some point it ends up with 5 at the back plus 2 holding midfielders.
    It just seems a little intemperate, given a (potentially!) seven game tournament to not drop one or two of those forwards who are unlikely to play for someone more versatile towards the back.

    Or maybe the game is ahead of me these days; that is very possible.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    Which of course is made up of a significant proportion of traditional democrat voters.

    The shift is less right / left, more the winners vs losers of globalisation. The losers have tried all the traditional parties / politicians, are pissed off and willing to kick over the apple cart. That's Trump, that's Brexit, maybe now Farage.
    And traditional non voters. The common thread isn't left right as you say. IMO it's shallowness, stupidity, ignorance and gullibility. They have these traits to a relatively high degree. But the political leaders exploiting them, the likes of Trump and Farage, are (usually) creatures of the right. Not always though. Eg you get your Galloway and Melenchon types trying to make waves in that space too. Overripe old men of the trad left who mix backward statist economics with backward social attitudes. Either way, it's sad.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Leon said:

    I have several choices

    1. Go to actual frontline at Kherson complete with flak jacket and hear actual missiles landing

    But then I’ve heard bits of missiles landing ON MY ROAD sufficient to cause minor detonations so… what’s the point? The war is here. It is in Odessa, and it really is. This is an air/drone war as much as anything else and I can see it right here, from my nice seafood restaurants

    2. Stay here. Nice seafood restaurants! Fascinating and dreamy Odessa. The lack of power and often internet is a bitch but you get used to it, maybe, somehow. Disadvantage, I have to go home via Chisinau and I am done with that bus journey and Chisinau is boring

    3. Go insane and go to Kharkiv and face even more missiles but without the seafood restaurants and less power

    4. (My fave at the mo). couple more days in Odessa eating fish and dodging drones and then do Kyiv. Never been. Am fascinated. What is the great city of Kyiv like right now? Another plus: I can avoid Chisinau and go home via beautiful Lviv then Cracow
    Kiev’s lovely. Go to the cathedrals. Stay at the Intercontinental next to the ‘new’ cathedral.

    My one photo of the day, from last August:

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr

    Need to be really clear, because I can see the myth building already, that there is no evidence in the underlying data of these polls that Labour votes are going to Reform.

    Nor of fewer Tory/Labour switchers.

    Small Labour drops in 3 of 5 polls are driven by others things.

    And BMG aside, no sense it's coming from Tories, either. Freedman is just trying to brush off a drop in Labour's support and average lead because 'magical things'
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2024
    Ghedebrav said:

    It just seems a little intemperate, given a (potentially!) seven game tournament to not drop one or two of those forwards who are unlikely to play for someone more versatile towards the back.

    Or maybe the game is ahead of me these days; that is very possible.
    I think it would be have wise. Shaw is still a huge doubt, Stones breaks down regularly for Man City. Trippier has been injured for quite a while and only just back. Walker isn't a spring chicken anymore.

    I wouldn't fancy a defence of Gomez, Dunk, Guehi, Konsa.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    73 to fill
    Where do I go to find out which seats have yet to have candidates allocated? Asking for a friend.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,740
    I don't find it remotely surprising that a significant minority of voters are seduced by Farage's charms.
    But I still find it fucking depressing.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Where do I go to find out which seats have yet to have candidates allocated? Asking for a friend.
    I don't know tbf, I'm going off the figures Owen Winter provides, he links to where the I fo comes from on his twitter
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,403
    More on the effects of the crashing Nigerian economy:

    Nigerian students hit by a financial crisis make up the majority of clients at a food charity, its manager has said.

    An economic crash in Nigeria left international students struggling to afford tuition fees, with some at Teesside University blocked from their studies and ordered to return home.

    Manager Debbie Fixter said 75% of clients at Thornaby's Sprouts Community Food Charity (SCFC) were affected students and the situation had pushed it to "maximum capacity".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cljjwg5dw34o

    This story seems to hit various current issues.

    Teesside university is ranked 100/130, down from 92/130.

    https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/league-tables/rankings?tabletype=full-table
  • rcs1000 said:

    Well: Trump outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020. On the other hand, the Republicans meaningfully underperformed in 2022.

    My gut is that - like the last two elections- is that it's going to come down to a handful of states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.

    The polls show Michigan and Wisconsin as ties, but Trump leading in the others, albeit by very narrow margins. My gut says that Biden holds on in the rust belt, but loses in the sunshine States.
    That's the disaster scenario for the US. If Biden wins PA, MI, WI and Trump wins AZ,GA,NV then that would be 270-268 to Biden (or 269-269 if Trump won NE2). It would be a complete nightmare of lawsuits and faithless electors. We really need to hope that the winner (whoever that may be) sweeps the swing states.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,127

    I don't find it remotely surprising that a significant minority of voters are seduced by Farage's charms.
    But I still find it fucking depressing.

    No-one expected 25% of Dutch voters to be attracted by Geert Wilders.
  • England’s final Euro 2024 squad has just been announced.

    Goalkeepers Dean Henderson (Crystal Palace), Jordan Pickford (Everton), Aaron Ramsdale (Arsenal).

    Defenders Lewis Dunk (Brighton & Hove Albion), Joe Gomez (Liverpool), Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace), Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa), Luke Shaw (Manchester United), John Stones (Manchester City), Kieran Trippier (Newcastle United), Kyle Walker (Manchester City).

    Midfielders Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Conor Gallagher (Chelsea), Kobbie Mainoo (Manchester United), Declan Rice (Arsenal), Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace).

    Forwards: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Jarrod Bowen (West Ham United), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Phil Foden (Manchester City), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa).

    If they knew Maguire was buggered, I think I might have called up Eric Dier. He is no world beater but is tried and test at the highest level and actually been playing every week.

    Adam Wharton is a great choice.
  • It's that Ufo's time of year again.
    New Congressional hearing being planned with new witnesses.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,508

    All eyes on YouGov for the Times in the morning!

    We're all going to be suffering such bad withdrawal symptoms after the election, aren't we? Polling cold turkey....
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 998
    I understood that Biden was withdrawing in July - does that account for the weakness in his price?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,569
    Leon said:

    right I have to walk to my hotel, can I just say that this trip has renewed my fervour for the Ukrainian cause

    The slightly triumphant swagger of Lviv in 2023 has gone - we threw off Putin! We will hurl him into the Azov! Now it is much more gritty determination and sangfroid and fuck it, we endure. And, in its way, that is more admirable. That is true grace, courage under fire, endless endless fire

    They have lost 100,000s of their finest young men - and still they fight. And fight. And fight. And they will not fucking lie down. I am humbled by them. They need everything we can give them

    Well done, Leon. More joy in heaven, and all that.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I don't find it remotely surprising that a significant minority of voters are seduced by Farage's charms.
    But I still find it fucking depressing.

    Nobody liked the guy who got you knocked off stockings in the war, but they used him to get by
    He's a spiv, but he clearly knows how to do disillusionment.
    The Tories have done this to us. What a shameful party. I'm starting to hope they get destroyed utterly. We (Lab skeptics ) can work out what to do about Labour later
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,220
    Cookie said:

    I don't think so. A lot of the Lab vote comes from a 'kick the Tories' place. A lot of the LD vote comes from a 'plague on both your houses' place. Both of these are easily transferable to Reform.
    2019 was interesting in that it was a face-off between two anti-politics figures - Boris and Corbyn.

    Sunak and Starmer are both vanilla politico politicians. Farage has scope to steal votes because this time he's the only standard-bearer for anti-politics.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Seattle Times - GOP backers sue to keep fiscal impact of WA initiatives off the ballot

    OLYMPIA — The GOP backers of three initiatives that could repeal or alter a trio of significant state policies are suing to keep information about the possible budget implications of each measure from appearing on voters’ ballots in November.

    State analysts have said the initiatives, if passed, could reduce funding for education and environmental projects by billions of dollars. The long-term care initiative could potentially dismantle the state’s public long-term care insurance program.

    A 2022 state law requires the state attorney general to spell out how state funding and services could be affected by initiatives that repeal, impose or change any tax or fee, or cause a net change to state revenue. The upcoming general election is the first time the disclosure law has become a factor because no initiatives qualified for the ballot in 2022 or 2023.

    But the chairs of the state Republican Party and the Mainstream Republicans of Washington, Jim Walsh and Deanna Martinez, respectively, contend the law does not apply to the measures on Washington’s capital gains tax, carbon market and public long-term care insurance program. . . .

    SSI - My expectation is that WA State Republicans will fail in effort to keep fiscal impacts of their initiatives off the ballot. Meaning that voters will see these numbers in their state-issued voter pamphlets, which are a tradition in WA and heavily relied on by voters.

    NOT a good look for the GOP, obviously. And their legal arguments are NOT persuasive, methinks, for judges OR voters.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031
    Leon said:

    right I have to walk to my hotel, can I just say that this trip has renewed my fervour for the Ukrainian cause

    The slightly triumphant swagger of Lviv in 2023 has gone - we threw off Putin! We will hurl him into the Azov! Now it is much more gritty determination and sangfroid and fuck it, we endure. And, in its way, that is more admirable. That is true grace, courage under fire, endless endless fire

    They have lost 100,000s of their finest young men - and still they fight. And fight. And fight. And they will not fucking lie down. I am humbled by them. They need everything we can give them

    Ummm: haven't they lost 100,000s of their finest middle aged men? It's young Russians vs middle aged Ukrainians.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2024
    AlsoLei said:

    We're all going to be suffering such bad withdrawal symptoms after the election, aren't we? Polling cold turkey....
    I'll be taking a break until the LEs 2025 and the Holyrood/Sennedd the year after (Gething surviving notwithstanding)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    I don't know tbf, I'm going off the figures Owen Winter provides, he links to where the I fo comes from on his twitter
    Owen Winter works, thanks!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2024

    2019 was interesting in that it was a face-off between two anti-politics figures - Boris and Corbyn.

    Sunak and Starmer are both vanilla politico politicians. Farage has scope to steal votes because this time he's the only standard-bearer for anti-politics.
    Davey is also in the Sunak / Starmer camp. Albeit the Lib Dem are trying to show his more human / fun side, but nobody would describe him as standard-bearer for the outsider. He is centrist dad.

    It is why I believe Corbyn got such maomentum in 2017. You had the politician mainstream saying keep calm and carry on, no real change required. And huge proportion of the population, f##k that. And why Boris played into the bigger state, levelling up, i.e. very un-Tory things.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031

    Davey is also in the Sunak / Starmer camp. Albeit the Lib Dem are trying to show his more human / fun side, but nobody would describe him as standard-bearer for the outsider. He is centrist dad.
    Who?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,127
    Icarus said:

    I understood that Biden was withdrawing in July - does that account for the weakness in his price?

    Who would replace him?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,740
    Andy_JS said:

    No-one expected 25% of Dutch voters to be attracted by Geert Wilders.
    No-one expected the Spanish Inquisition either.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,127

    I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
    It won't lack a Tory candidate when nominations close. They aren't that stupid. 😊
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kle4 said:

    What I don't get is why people think Trump is less in decline. His ramblings, never the most coherent, are nothing but stream of consciousness self focused nonsense, yet even on his own side Biden is the one people worry about.
    Check out Trumps polling numbers in battleground states. AND his fundraising since his conviction,
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    edited June 2024
    Icarus said:

    I understood that Biden was withdrawing in July - does that account for the weakness in his price?

    Any chance you could PM me next week's winning lottery numbers? Please?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    rcs1000 said:

    Who?
    The future Leader of the Opposition.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    Luke Tryl at MiC musing that Farage might eat into a broader base like UKIP did rather than just nabbing Con as they had been. Might we start seeing 30s for Labour and Ref Con close in the low 20s?

    That’s what I’m wondering about. Step one in something very unusual playing out over 2-3 elections.

    And as you say in your next post, some really odd results (in the context of a Labour landslide). Lots of volatility to make money on if you can get the info.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Icarus said:

    I understood that Biden was withdrawing in July - does that account for the weakness in his price?

    You understood wrong. (NOT metaphysically, but politically).
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,569

    Why? I would rather eat glass!
    Yeah, but if you got in we'd have someone on the insideproviding us with a steady stream of tips. Do it.

    For us.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,127
    Don't post subsamples on PB unless you want to get up everyone's nose. 😊
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,826

    No-one expected the Spanish Inquisition either.
    The Dutch voting situation was entirely foreseeable and was foreseen.

    Pim Fortuyn for example.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,031
    Completely separately, it appears that Hunter Biden firearms case is going reasonably well for the defendant. The defence is a simple one: Hunter was clean at the time of purchasing the gun, having completed a rehabilitation programme, and living with a sober companion, and that the terms "drug abuser or addict" are not defined.

    It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

    For the record, I do wonder if a Not Guilty verdict may further incense and motivate MAGA Republicans who believe the whole legal system is biased against them.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,692
    kinabalu said:

    And traditional non voters. The common thread isn't left right as you say. IMO it's shallowness, stupidity, ignorance and gullibility. They have these traits to a relatively high degree. But the political leaders exploiting them, the likes of Trump and Farage, are (usually) creatures of the right. Not always though. Eg you get your Galloway and Melenchon types trying to make waves in that space too. Overripe old men of the trad left who mix backward statist economics with backward social attitudes. Either way, it's sad.
    Your second sentence - those characteristics aren't exactly absent from traditional parties' voters.
    As with Corbyn's voters - these people aren't voting Farage because they are wrong or misguided, they're doing so because the current settlement very much doesn't work for them.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,692
    kinabalu said:

    And traditional non voters. The common thread isn't left right as you say. IMO it's shallowness, stupidity, ignorance and gullibility. They have these traits to a relatively high degree. But the political leaders exploiting them, the likes of Trump and Farage, are (usually) creatures of the right. Not always though. Eg you get your Galloway and Melenchon types trying to make waves in that space too. Overripe old men of the trad left who mix backward statist economics with backward social attitudes. Either way, it's sad.
    Your second sentence - those characteristics aren't exactly absent from traditional parties' voters.
    As with Corbyn's voters - these people aren't voting Farage because they are wrong or misguided, they're doing so because the current settlement very much doesn't work for them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    US only need 160 to pull off a big upset in the T20 WC.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Andy_JS said:

    It won't lack a Tory candidate when nominations close. They aren't that stupid. 😊
    WERE YOU UP FOR WES? 🤣
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Leon said:

    I have several choices

    1. Go to actual frontline at Kherson complete with flak jacket and hear actual missiles landing

    But then I’ve heard bits of missiles landing ON MY ROAD sufficient to cause minor detonations so… what’s the point? The war is here. It is in Odessa, and it really is. This is an air/drone war as much as anything else and I can see it right here, from my nice seafood restaurants

    2. Stay here. Nice seafood restaurants! Fascinating and dreamy Odessa. The lack of power and often internet is a bitch but you get used to it, maybe, somehow. Disadvantage, I have to go home via Chisinau and I am done with that bus journey and Chisinau is boring

    3. Go insane and go to Kharkiv and face even more missiles but without the seafood restaurants and less power

    4. (My fave at the mo). couple more days in Odessa eating fish and dodging drones and then do Kyiv. Never been. Am fascinated. What is the great city of Kyiv like right now? Another plus: I can avoid Chisinau and go home via beautiful Lviv then Cracow
    Out of interest, is the border open for (insane) tourists or did you need the media credentials?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Check out Trumps polling numbers in battleground states. AND his fundraising since his conviction,
    Last number I saw was $200m, including $70m in small individual donations and $100m from the estate of Sheldon Adelson.

    Anecdotal evidence (from Twitter and commentators) of black Americans starting to say ‘he’s one of us’ after his conviction, which would be rather amusing if polling backs it up. The swing state polling last week all has Trump ahead.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,220
    rcs1000 said:

    Completely separately, it appears that Hunter Biden firearms case is going reasonably well for the defendant. The defence is a simple one: Hunter was clean at the time of purchasing the gun, having completed a rehabilitation programme, and living with a sober companion, and that the terms "drug abuser or addict" are not defined.

    It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

    For the record, I do wonder if a Not Guilty verdict may further incense and motivate MAGA Republicans who believe the whole legal system is biased against them.

    You can bank on it. Heaven forbid it should be another example of the Republicans putting all their legal/impeachment hopes into the wrong cases...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,826
    Cookie said:

    Your second sentence - those characteristics aren't exactly absent from traditional parties' voters.
    As with Corbyn's voters - these people aren't voting Farage because they are wrong or misguided, they're doing so because the current settlement very much doesn't work for them.
    But they are shallow, stupid, ignorant and gullible. Because they refuse to believe the *right kind* of lies from politicians. Despite those lies being repeated for them at regular intervals
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    AlsoLei said:

    We're all going to be suffering such bad withdrawal symptoms after the election, aren't we? Polling cold turkey....
    Yet with the conclusion of the football, Olympics, and euro elections still ahead to look forward to.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,569
    rcs1000 said:

    Completely separately, it appears that Hunter Biden firearms case is going reasonably well for the defendant. The defence is a simple one: Hunter was clean at the time of purchasing the gun, having completed a rehabilitation programme, and living with a sober companion, and that the terms "drug abuser or addict" are not defined.

    It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

    For the record, I do wonder if a Not Guilty verdict may further incense and motivate MAGA Republicans who believe the whole legal system is biased against them.

    Wouldn't they be further incensed and motivated by any kind of verdict?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2024
    biggles said:

    Out of interest, is the border open for (insane) tourists or did you need the media credentials?
    The border is open, and you don’t have to be (that) insane. I went last year, albeit with Ukranian Mrs Sandpit. Accept that you don’t have travel insurance though, but Lviv and Kiev are wonderful cities to visit.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    Don't post subsamples on PB unless you want to get up everyone's nose. 😊
    He managed to avoid the ‘Caledonian Crosssection’ —— otherwise it could have been curtains!!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    Andy_JS said:

    It won't lack a Tory candidate when nominations close. They aren't that stupid. 😊
    Keith will be having his arm twisted something rotten
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,868
    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr

    Need to be really clear, because I can see the myth building already, that there is no evidence in the underlying data of these polls that Labour votes are going to Reform.

    Nor of fewer Tory/Labour switchers.

    Small Labour drops in 3 of 5 polls are driven by others things.

    I think it's plausible enough that Farage is attracting some votes that would have gone to Labour otherwise.

    But in Starmer's position, given that the Tory strategy was 100% focussed on trying to regain votes from Reform, I think I would be very happy to sacrifice a few percentage points and have a 20-point lead over both the Tories and ReformUK evenly divided.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,127
    The Tories have about 18 hours to do a deal with RefUK, whereby they offer to stand down in about 100 seats where Reform are strongest in return for the party standing down in favour of the Tories in the other constituencies.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520
    IanB2 said:

    Keith will be having his arm twisted something rotten
    TSE had to invent an abscess requiring multiple days out of action to avoid being parachuted into a seat...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    US only need 160 to pull off a big upset in the T20 WC.

    Already knocked 10 off 1.3
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories have about 18 hours to do a deal with RefUK, whereby they offer to stand down in about 100 seats where Reform are strongest in return for the party standing down in favour of the Tories in the other constituencies.

    It's too late. Farage will say no, publically out the offer and decline it and voters will flood from weakness to perceived strength. He's got them by the balls
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286

    Well done, Leon. More joy in heaven, and all that.
    I’ve never NOT wanted Ukraine to prevail. I despise Putin and would like him and his cronies pushed out of a window. I’ve just doubted Ukraine can win and I still seriously doubt they can win. I’m fairly sure they can’t, in fact - in terms of regaining all Ukraine including Crimea it seems unlikely

    But what they can do - and, from being here, what I sense they might do - is prove such doughty and inconquerable opponents Putin will have to sue for a less than brilliant peace. Or lose another million men gaining 5 sq km

    I dunno. Perhaps Putin will seize Kyiv tomorrow. But in terms of human mood - and that is all you sense when you go places - the Ukrainians don’t seem minded to admit defeat. They are grimly set on defending the rest of their country, and fuck the suffering endured thereby

    Manpower is still their issue. They have no problem with courage. We must arm them to the teeth to make up for the lack of troops
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,868
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories have about 18 hours to do a deal with RefUK, whereby they offer to stand down in about 100 seats where Reform are strongest in return for the party standing down in favour of the Tories in the other constituencies.

    And campaign as the Tory-RefUK Alliance?

    I think Tories have to accept this is a no-win situation for them.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Chris said:

    And campaign as the Tory-RefUK Alliance?

    I think Tories have to accept this is a no-win situation for them.
    Any deal ends them. Utterly.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520
    edited June 2024
    Chris said:

    And campaign as the Tory-RefUK Alliance?

    I think Tories have to accept this is a no-win situation for them.
    Farage only returned because he scents blood and the complete destruction of the Tory party...
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories have about 18 hours to do a deal with RefUK, whereby they offer to stand down in about 100 seats where Reform are strongest in return for the party standing down in favour of the Tories in the other constituencies.

    Leading to a post-election merger, and Farage as LOTO?

    While I can understand some voters being up for that, is it what grassroots Conservative members really want?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,520
    kyf_100 said:

    Leading to a post-election merger, and Farage as LOTO?

    While I can understand some voters being up for that, is it what grassroots Conservative members really want?
    A number of surveys say that Farage would be their preferred leader.
This discussion has been closed.