Labour down four in Survation too. Reform have clearly had a nibble.
But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.
The voter who voted tory in 2019 cos they liked Johnson, Gonna vote Labour in 2024 because there is no Johnson and Richard Tice is too posh but now voting Farage as he is known and liked by this type of voter - hence the nibble from labour I think
Yup. You could easily see a scenario where Red Wall seats come into play, potentially. It needs those voters to realise what is going on, but if they do..,.
It's turning into the election that 2019 would have been without Johnson. The lack of enthusiasm for Starmer could turn out to be a very important factor.
Lack of enthusiasm for Starmer who in these polls has more support than the next two parties put together.
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Plus 7 but only -1 Tories.......... 2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
Yes, it's a mistake to think that Tory and Reform voters are fungible. In very special circumstances in 2019 Boris managed to attract both tribes, but in my view most Reform voters are normally Tory-sceptic if not outright Tory-hostile.
I view them as our equivalent (although thankfully a pale imitation both in nature and number) of the Trump MAGA base in the US.
Hm. A bit. But the circumstances are very different. That said, the average Trump voter is a long way from the stereotype of the Jan 6th nutter. It probably is the case that the average Trump voter trying his best in his difficult life in his left-behind town, perceiving the contempt of the Democrat elite is not that different from his Nige-voting British equivalent.
What’s the situation with Farage’s French girlfriend by the way? Is his push for power and then ban immigrants a really over complicated way of dumping her?
“Sorry darling, I love you and all that but I’ve just banned immigrants so we must part our ways.”
Just laid Biden for the Dem nomination. They can't keep this going, it's getting to the point where it is cruel.
It’s really awful to watch, on a human level.
I’m sure many of us have seen the deterioration of elderly relatives, but without it being headline news every day.
What I don't get is why people think Trump is less in decline. His ramblings, never the most coherent, are nothing but stream of consciousness self focused nonsense, yet even on his own side Biden is the one people worry about.
Trump’s probably a few years behind Biden, but his deterioration often comes across as bombast. Perhaps iit’s their different personalities, but Trump’s also not falling up stairs, reaching for an imaginary chair, or being physically disorientated.
Both parties need to knock some heads together, and come up with a better option for the person they want to have their finger on the big red button.
So, Ref plus 7 and 5 with Surv and BMG, plus 2 everyone else. Is it a surge or a small jump?? Will it hold? Will it expand? Things just got decidedly more interesting
It’s v plez. I’m going to SPUNK my one photo on my dinner. As it were. A fantastic grilled dorade with lovely white wine on the Black Sea. I can see towers missiled by Putin from where I type this. Blackened hulks. And yet the douceur du vivre abides. God bless the Ukes. Slava Ukraini!!!!
It’s v plez. I’m going to SPUNK my one photo on my dinner. As it were. A fantastic grilled dorade with lovely white wine on the Black Sea. I can see towers missiled by Putin from where I type this. Blackened hulks. And yet the douceur du vivre abides. God bless the Ukes. Slava Ukraini!!!!
Reform is taking a lot of 2019 Tories who had thought of voting Labour (or just not voting) it seems.
People keep talking past each other here. From one perspective (2019) yes that’s Reform eating into the Tory vote. But it’s part of the Tory vote that was on its way back to Labour, having voted for it pre-Brexit.
The Tories at 15-20% are at their floor. No further transfer to reform is possible and that got Reform to where is was: but the 2019 Tories can and are moving over to Farage, boosting them further.
That’s what I see in the numbers anyway.
2 years ago their "floor" was 30%
And under Johnson it probably still would be.
Possibly… though the downward trend was underway while he was in charge, and certainly nudging 30%. More time would have meant more mistakes, more poor party management. We might not be having the sub-20 numbers but I still think they’d be in a pretty bad way.
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Farage enters the fray... Lab and LibDems take the biggest hit. Which seems a little... odd...
I don't think so. A lot of the Lab vote comes from a 'kick the Tories' place. A lot of the LD vote comes from a 'plague on both your houses' place. Both of these are easily transferable to Reform.
Forwards: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Jarrod Bowen (West Ham United), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Phil Foden (Manchester City), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa).
If they knew Maguire was buggered, I think I might have called up Eric Dier. He is no world beater but is tried and test at the highest level and actually been playing every week.
On topic: I agree that Joe is value at this price. Esp because (and this is new information for people) I have done a deal with my God whereby I've agreed to give up 75 seats of Labour majority in return for Trump coming up short in November.
The key thing here is that they have scheduled the first Trump-Biden debate for June. That is unusually early and before the conventions. My take is that Biden is being given a trial run out. If the debate goes well and the polls narrow then great, if the debate goes badly and the polls widen, then enormous pressure will be brought to bear on him to stand down. A contested convention is risky but better than a surefire loser.
If there was a charismatic, young, popular Democrat ready to stand in and take the fight to Trump, then yes, that would be possible.
But there is no obvious successor. Harris is Vice President, but has the charisma of... well... something without charisma. She would certainly want her shot against Trump, but why would the Democrats dump Biden for her?
I would love to see Trump against Ossoff or Buttigieg: an articulate, "next generation" candidate. But I also also don't see any path for them win the Presidency to become the nominee.
So, unless Biden has a major health event, then I really don't see the path for an alternative candidate.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I think Baillie Gifford will come out of the Dissolution of the Book Festivals with its reputation enhanced. More people will know it sought to support book festivals & is a future-focused & environmentally friendly fund, & anyone sensible can see they're not the bad guys here
Once upon a time, I was a partner at a startup equity research company, Arete Research. Baillie Gifford had been a client, and my boss and I flew to Edinburgh to meet with them on their request. For 90 minutes, we presented on what we liked, and didn't like, and trends, etc. At the end of the presentation, the Baillie Gifford lead said to us "Thanks very much for that, much appreciated. Just so you know, we won't be paying you in future."
Getting fired is fine.
Being dragged up to Scotland, and then having our brains picked, and then not being paid for it...
Well, put it like this, I thought it was pretty poor behaviour.
As Silicon Valley Tv show called it you were brain raped.
Yep, never give away your knowledge for free. Minimally explain how you do something, not what you will do if assigned to the project. I have been caught out once by this. Never again!
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Farage enters the fray... Lab and LibDems take the biggest hit. Which seems a little... odd...
I don't think so. A lot of the Lab vote comes from a 'kick the Tories' place. A lot of the LD vote comes from a 'plague on both your houses' place. Both of these are easily transferable to Reform.
Their messaging back in 2019 was often deliberately targeted at Labour voters.
Just laid Biden for the Dem nomination. They can't keep this going, it's getting to the point where it is cruel.
It’s really awful to watch, on a human level.
I’m sure many of us have seen the deterioration of elderly relatives, but without it being headline news every day.
What I don't get is why people think Trump is less in decline. His ramblings, never the most coherent, are nothing but stream of consciousness self focused nonsense, yet even on his own side Biden is the one people worry about.
Trump’s probably a few years behind Biden, but his deterioration often comes across as bombast. Perhaps iit’s their different personalities, but Trump’s also not falling up stairs, reaching for an imaginary chair, or being physically disorientated.
Both parties need to knock some heads together, and come up with a better option for the person they want to have their finger on the big red button.
Far too late for that in actuality even if not technically.
A frail old man or a loony authoritarian old man are the choices.
Labour down four in Survation too. Reform have clearly had a nibble.
But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.
Hard to say. Move to Reform might have been larger without it?
Reform looking to be the home of the protest vote this election. Not the LibDems.
Greens holding up. Protest vote from Labour?
We often say it takes a week or more for the impact of events to show up in the polls, so much of the Green rise could be fallout from the Diane Abbott / Labour selections mess. If so, you'd expect it to drift back to Labour again when people start thinking specifically about their local constituency rather than national events.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
They may not fill all of them, but they'll get most I think.
I think Baillie Gifford will come out of the Dissolution of the Book Festivals with its reputation enhanced. More people will know it sought to support book festivals & is a future-focused & environmentally friendly fund, & anyone sensible can see they're not the bad guys here
Once upon a time, I was a partner at a startup equity research company, Arete Research. Baillie Gifford had been a client, and my boss and I flew to Edinburgh to meet with them on their request. For 90 minutes, we presented on what we liked, and didn't like, and trends, etc. At the end of the presentation, the Baillie Gifford lead said to us "Thanks very much for that, much appreciated. Just so you know, we won't be paying you in future."
Getting fired is fine.
Being dragged up to Scotland, and then having our brains picked, and then not being paid for it...
Well, put it like this, I thought it was pretty poor behaviour.
As Silicon Valley Tv show called it you were brain raped.
Yep, never give away your knowledge for free. Minimally explain how you do something, not what you will do if assigned to the project. I have been caught out once by this. Never again!
I made this mistake a few years ago, there is a very successful company I won't name who used a lot of what I stupidly said to them for free.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
They may not fill all of them, but they'll get most I think.
What’s the situation with Farage’s French girlfriend by the way? Is his push for power and then ban immigrants a really over complicated way of dumping her?
“Sorry darling, I love you and all that but I’ve just banned immigrants so we must part our ways.”
Is this really the best you can do?
Yes Lucky, yes it is.
Well then I feel Sunak may soon ask you to find alternative employment.
On topic: I agree that Joe is value at this price. Esp because (and this is new information for people) I have done a deal with my God whereby I've agreed to give up 75 seats of Labour majority in return for Trump coming up short in November.
The key thing here is that they have scheduled the first Trump-Biden debate for June. That is unusually early and before the conventions. My take is that Biden is being given a trial run out. If the debate goes well and the polls narrow then great, if the debate goes badly and the polls widen, then enormous pressure will be brought to bear on him to stand down. A contested convention is risky but better than a surefire loser.
If there was a charismatic, young, popular Democrat ready to stand in and take the fight to Trump, then yes, that would be possible.
But there is no obvious successor. Harris is Vice President, but has the charisma of... well... something without charisma. She would certainly want her shot against Trump, but why would the Democrats dump Biden for her?
I would love to see Trump against Ossoff or Buttigieg: an articulate, "next generation" candidate. But I also also don't see any path for them win the Presidency to become the nominee.
So, unless Biden has a major health event, then I really don't see the path for an alternative candidate.
So why schedule a debate for June? (and it's worth adding here that the Dems suggested the timing.) Of course, Kamala would want to take over but the delegates would not be bound to vote for her in the same way as they would for Biden.
Reform is taking a lot of 2019 Tories who had thought of voting Labour (or just not voting) it seems.
People keep talking past each other here. From one perspective (2019) yes that’s Reform eating into the Tory vote. But it’s part of the Tory vote that was on its way back to Labour, having voted for it pre-Brexit.
The Tories at 15-20% are at their floor. No further transfer to reform is possible and that got Reform to where is was: but the 2019 Tories can and are moving over to Farage, boosting them further.
That’s what I see in the numbers anyway.
Except the Tory floor is based on the assumption that they are the legitimate standard-bearer of the right. Crossover would kick that away and give permission to tribal voters to defect.
No, they won't. There are large numbers of Tories who would never vote for Farage.
That doesn't negate my point. Some wouldn't but some would.
Usual echo chamber caveats apply, but most of my right of centre friends would rather push hot needles into their genitalia than lend a vote to a man that many of us regard as a neo-fascist who was called out as a racist by none other than his housemaster at school and separately, the founder of UKIP, Alan Sked.
(None of my friends are into CBT so far as I know)
It’s v plez. I’m going to SPUNK my one photo on my dinner. As it were. A fantastic grilled dorade with lovely white wine on the Black Sea. I can see towers missiled by Putin from where I type this. Blackened hulks. And yet the douceur du vivre abides. God bless the Ukes. Slava Ukraini!!!!
Any news on the frontline venture?
I have several choices
1. Go to actual frontline at Kherson complete with flak jacket and hear actual missiles landing
But then I’ve heard bits of missiles landing ON MY ROAD sufficient to cause minor detonations so… what’s the point? The war is here. It is in Odessa, and it really is. This is an air/drone war as much as anything else and I can see it right here, from my nice seafood restaurants
2. Stay here. Nice seafood restaurants! Fascinating and dreamy Odessa. The lack of power and often internet is a bitch but you get used to it, maybe, somehow. Disadvantage, I have to go home via Chisinau and I am done with that bus journey and Chisinau is boring
3. Go insane and go to Kharkiv and face even more missiles but without the seafood restaurants and less power
4. (My fave at the mo). couple more days in Odessa eating fish and dodging drones and then do Kyiv. Never been. Am fascinated. What is the great city of Kyiv like right now? Another plus: I can avoid Chisinau and go home via beautiful Lviv then Cracow
Forwards: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Jarrod Bowen (West Ham United), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Phil Foden (Manchester City), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa).
If they knew Maguire was buggered, I think I might have called up Eric Dier. He is no world beater but is tried and test at the highest level and actually been playing every week.
Polling *gap* between Lab and Con seems to be pretty consistent across the polls. Reds 18-20pp ahead, even if the headline figures are more variable.
Four weeks till polling day - we’ve had a third of the campaign done, and that’s without being drowned out by the footy noise. Looking bleak for the Blues.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
They may not fill all of them, but they'll get most I think.
I'd expect so too but they've only added about a dozen since the election was called...........
Forwards: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Jarrod Bowen (West Ham United), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Phil Foden (Manchester City), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa).
If they knew Maguire was buggered, I think I might have called up Eric Dier. He is no world beater but is tried and test at the highest level and actually been playing every week.
Ten forwards, jeez.
And its not like England play like the 1970s Brazil teams with all that attacking talent. I am not going to be shocked if at some point it ends up with 5 at the back plus 2 holding midfielders.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Plus 7 but only -1 Tories.......... 2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
Yes, it's a mistake to think that Tory and Reform voters are fungible. In very special circumstances in 2019 Boris managed to attract both tribes, but in my view most Reform voters are normally Tory-sceptic if not outright Tory-hostile.
I view them as our equivalent (although thankfully a pale imitation both in nature and number) of the Trump MAGA base in the US.
Hm. A bit. But the circumstances are very different. That said, the average Trump voter is a long way from the stereotype of the Jan 6th nutter. It probably is the case that the average Trump voter trying his best in his difficult life in his left-behind town, perceiving the contempt of the Democrat elite is not that different from his Nige-voting British equivalent.
There are plenty of Trump voters in California and even in New York City. There are young people, old people, people in work and people out of work.
And I think the dominant reason why Trump is - and should be - narrow favorite is that (as is pretty much universal across the developed world in the last few years) wages have not kept up with prices.
Need to be really clear, because I can see the myth building already, that there is no evidence in the underlying data of these polls that Labour votes are going to Reform.
Nor of fewer Tory/Labour switchers.
Small Labour drops in 3 of 5 polls are driven by others things.
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Plus 7 but only -1 Tories.......... 2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
Yes, it's a mistake to think that Tory and Reform voters are fungible. In very special circumstances in 2019 Boris managed to attract both tribes, but in my view most Reform voters are normally Tory-sceptic if not outright Tory-hostile.
I view them as our equivalent (although thankfully a pale imitation both in nature and number) of the Trump MAGA base in the US.
Hm. A bit. But the circumstances are very different. That said, the average Trump voter is a long way from the stereotype of the Jan 6th nutter. It probably is the case that the average Trump voter trying his best in his difficult life in his left-behind town, perceiving the contempt of the Democrat elite is not that different from his Nige-voting British equivalent.
There are plenty of Trump voters in California and even in New York City. There are young people, old people, people in work and people out of work.
And I think the dominant reason why Trump is - and should be - narrow favorite is that (as is pretty much universal across the developed world in the last few years) wages have not kept up with prices.
The inflation he hit those with few assets the hardest. If you don't own stock or a home, you are massively behind the 8 ball now, and you can't even go to McDonald's for 99c burger, that will be $15.
The US used to be the land of cheap day to day living. That isn't the case anymore.
Reform is taking a lot of 2019 Tories who had thought of voting Labour (or just not voting) it seems.
People keep talking past each other here. From one perspective (2019) yes that’s Reform eating into the Tory vote. But it’s part of the Tory vote that was on its way back to Labour, having voted for it pre-Brexit.
The Tories at 15-20% are at their floor. No further transfer to reform is possible and that got Reform to where is was: but the 2019 Tories can and are moving over to Farage, boosting them further.
That’s what I see in the numbers anyway.
2 years ago their "floor" was 30%
And under Johnson it probably still would be.
That fat deluded twat is the reason the Tory brand has been so degraded. If Johnson were still there the Tories would be genuinely doomed, much more so than they currently appear. Johnsons bullshit is way way past it's sell by date even with the terminally stupid. Well most of them anyway except for William Volte Face Glenn it would seem!
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
Forwards: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Jarrod Bowen (West Ham United), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Phil Foden (Manchester City), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa).
If they knew Maguire was buggered, I think I might have called up Eric Dier. He is no world beater but is tried and test at the highest level and actually been playing every week.
Ten forwards, jeez.
And its not like England play like the 1970s Brazil teams with all that attacking talent. I am not going to be shocked if at some point it ends up with 5 at the back plus 2 holding midfielders.
It just seems a little intemperate, given a (potentially!) seven game tournament to not drop one or two of those forwards who are unlikely to play for someone more versatile towards the back.
Or maybe the game is ahead of me these days; that is very possible.
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Plus 7 but only -1 Tories.......... 2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
Yes, it's a mistake to think that Tory and Reform voters are fungible. In very special circumstances in 2019 Boris managed to attract both tribes, but in my view most Reform voters are normally Tory-sceptic if not outright Tory-hostile.
I view them as our equivalent (although thankfully a pale imitation both in nature and number) of the Trump MAGA base in the US.
Which of course is made up of a significant proportion of traditional democrat voters.
The shift is less right / left, more the winners vs losers of globalisation. The losers have tried all the traditional parties / politicians, are pissed off and willing to kick over the apple cart. That's Trump, that's Brexit, maybe now Farage.
And traditional non voters. The common thread isn't left right as you say. IMO it's shallowness, stupidity, ignorance and gullibility. They have these traits to a relatively high degree. But the political leaders exploiting them, the likes of Trump and Farage, are (usually) creatures of the right. Not always though. Eg you get your Galloway and Melenchon types trying to make waves in that space too. Overripe old men of the trad left who mix backward statist economics with backward social attitudes. Either way, it's sad.
It’s v plez. I’m going to SPUNK my one photo on my dinner. As it were. A fantastic grilled dorade with lovely white wine on the Black Sea. I can see towers missiled by Putin from where I type this. Blackened hulks. And yet the douceur du vivre abides. God bless the Ukes. Slava Ukraini!!!!
Any news on the frontline venture?
I have several choices
1. Go to actual frontline at Kherson complete with flak jacket and hear actual missiles landing
But then I’ve heard bits of missiles landing ON MY ROAD sufficient to cause minor detonations so… what’s the point? The war is here. It is in Odessa, and it really is. This is an air/drone war as much as anything else and I can see it right here, from my nice seafood restaurants
2. Stay here. Nice seafood restaurants! Fascinating and dreamy Odessa. The lack of power and often internet is a bitch but you get used to it, maybe, somehow. Disadvantage, I have to go home via Chisinau and I am done with that bus journey and Chisinau is boring
3. Go insane and go to Kharkiv and face even more missiles but without the seafood restaurants and less power
4. (My fave at the mo). couple more days in Odessa eating fish and dodging drones and then do Kyiv. Never been. Am fascinated. What is the great city of Kyiv like right now? Another plus: I can avoid Chisinau and go home via beautiful Lviv then Cracow
Kiev’s lovely. Go to the cathedrals. Stay at the Intercontinental next to the ‘new’ cathedral.
Need to be really clear, because I can see the myth building already, that there is no evidence in the underlying data of these polls that Labour votes are going to Reform.
Nor of fewer Tory/Labour switchers.
Small Labour drops in 3 of 5 polls are driven by others things.
And BMG aside, no sense it's coming from Tories, either. Freedman is just trying to brush off a drop in Labour's support and average lead because 'magical things'
Forwards: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Jarrod Bowen (West Ham United), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Phil Foden (Manchester City), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa).
If they knew Maguire was buggered, I think I might have called up Eric Dier. He is no world beater but is tried and test at the highest level and actually been playing every week.
Ten forwards, jeez.
And its not like England play like the 1970s Brazil teams with all that attacking talent. I am not going to be shocked if at some point it ends up with 5 at the back plus 2 holding midfielders.
It just seems a little intemperate, given a (potentially!) seven game tournament to not drop one or two of those forwards who are unlikely to play for someone more versatile towards the back.
Or maybe the game is ahead of me these days; that is very possible.
I think it would be have wise. Shaw is still a huge doubt, Stones breaks down regularly for Man City. Trippier has been injured for quite a while and only just back. Walker isn't a spring chicken anymore.
I wouldn't fancy a defence of Gomez, Dunk, Guehi, Konsa.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
73 to fill
Where do I go to find out which seats have yet to have candidates allocated? Asking for a friend.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
73 to fill
Where do I go to find out which seats have yet to have candidates allocated? Asking for a friend.
I don't know tbf, I'm going off the figures Owen Winter provides, he links to where the I fo comes from on his twitter
More on the effects of the crashing Nigerian economy:
Nigerian students hit by a financial crisis make up the majority of clients at a food charity, its manager has said.
An economic crash in Nigeria left international students struggling to afford tuition fees, with some at Teesside University blocked from their studies and ordered to return home.
Manager Debbie Fixter said 75% of clients at Thornaby's Sprouts Community Food Charity (SCFC) were affected students and the situation had pushed it to "maximum capacity".
On thread - ordinarily, in the UK, you get quite good odds on Republican candidates: the UK tends not to understand the attraction of, and therefore underestimate, the chances of a republican victory. (This is my long term general impression - happy to be corrected if anyone has actual data!) I wonder why it is not happening this time?
It might be still happening - ie the odds should be even shorter
Well: Trump outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020. On the other hand, the Republicans meaningfully underperformed in 2022.
My gut is that - like the last two elections- is that it's going to come down to a handful of states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.
The polls show Michigan and Wisconsin as ties, but Trump leading in the others, albeit by very narrow margins. My gut says that Biden holds on in the rust belt, but loses in the sunshine States.
That's the disaster scenario for the US. If Biden wins PA, MI, WI and Trump wins AZ,GA,NV then that would be 270-268 to Biden (or 269-269 if Trump won NE2). It would be a complete nightmare of lawsuits and faithless electors. We really need to hope that the winner (whoever that may be) sweeps the swing states.
right I have to walk to my hotel, can I just say that this trip has renewed my fervour for the Ukrainian cause
The slightly triumphant swagger of Lviv in 2023 has gone - we threw off Putin! We will hurl him into the Azov! Now it is much more gritty determination and sangfroid and fuck it, we endure. And, in its way, that is more admirable. That is true grace, courage under fire, endless endless fire
They have lost 100,000s of their finest young men - and still they fight. And fight. And fight. And they will not fucking lie down. I am humbled by them. They need everything we can give them
Forwards: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Jarrod Bowen (West Ham United), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Phil Foden (Manchester City), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa).
If they knew Maguire was buggered, I think I might have called up Eric Dier. He is no world beater but is tried and test at the highest level and actually been playing every week.
right I have to walk to my hotel, can I just say that this trip has renewed my fervour for the Ukrainian cause
The slightly triumphant swagger of Lviv in 2023 has gone - we threw off Putin! We will hurl him into the Azov! Now it is much more gritty determination and sangfroid and fuck it, we endure. And, in its way, that is more admirable. That is true grace, courage under fire, endless endless fire
They have lost 100,000s of their finest young men - and still they fight. And fight. And fight. And they will not fucking lie down. I am humbled by them. They need everything we can give them
Well done, Leon. More joy in heaven, and all that.
I don't find it remotely surprising that a significant minority of voters are seduced by Farage's charms. But I still find it fucking depressing.
Nobody liked the guy who got you knocked off stockings in the war, but they used him to get by He's a spiv, but he clearly knows how to do disillusionment. The Tories have done this to us. What a shameful party. I'm starting to hope they get destroyed utterly. We (Lab skeptics ) can work out what to do about Labour later
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Farage enters the fray... Lab and LibDems take the biggest hit. Which seems a little... odd...
I don't think so. A lot of the Lab vote comes from a 'kick the Tories' place. A lot of the LD vote comes from a 'plague on both your houses' place. Both of these are easily transferable to Reform.
2019 was interesting in that it was a face-off between two anti-politics figures - Boris and Corbyn.
Sunak and Starmer are both vanilla politico politicians. Farage has scope to steal votes because this time he's the only standard-bearer for anti-politics.
Seattle Times - GOP backers sue to keep fiscal impact of WA initiatives off the ballot
OLYMPIA — The GOP backers of three initiatives that could repeal or alter a trio of significant state policies are suing to keep information about the possible budget implications of each measure from appearing on voters’ ballots in November.
State analysts have said the initiatives, if passed, could reduce funding for education and environmental projects by billions of dollars. The long-term care initiative could potentially dismantle the state’s public long-term care insurance program.
A 2022 state law requires the state attorney general to spell out how state funding and services could be affected by initiatives that repeal, impose or change any tax or fee, or cause a net change to state revenue. The upcoming general election is the first time the disclosure law has become a factor because no initiatives qualified for the ballot in 2022 or 2023.
But the chairs of the state Republican Party and the Mainstream Republicans of Washington, Jim Walsh and Deanna Martinez, respectively, contend the law does not apply to the measures on Washington’s capital gains tax, carbon market and public long-term care insurance program. . . .
SSI - My expectation is that WA State Republicans will fail in effort to keep fiscal impacts of their initiatives off the ballot. Meaning that voters will see these numbers in their state-issued voter pamphlets, which are a tradition in WA and heavily relied on by voters.
NOT a good look for the GOP, obviously. And their legal arguments are NOT persuasive, methinks, for judges OR voters.
right I have to walk to my hotel, can I just say that this trip has renewed my fervour for the Ukrainian cause
The slightly triumphant swagger of Lviv in 2023 has gone - we threw off Putin! We will hurl him into the Azov! Now it is much more gritty determination and sangfroid and fuck it, we endure. And, in its way, that is more admirable. That is true grace, courage under fire, endless endless fire
They have lost 100,000s of their finest young men - and still they fight. And fight. And fight. And they will not fucking lie down. I am humbled by them. They need everything we can give them
Ummm: haven't they lost 100,000s of their finest middle aged men? It's young Russians vs middle aged Ukrainians.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
73 to fill
Where do I go to find out which seats have yet to have candidates allocated? Asking for a friend.
I don't know tbf, I'm going off the figures Owen Winter provides, he links to where the I fo comes from on his twitter
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Farage enters the fray... Lab and LibDems take the biggest hit. Which seems a little... odd...
I don't think so. A lot of the Lab vote comes from a 'kick the Tories' place. A lot of the LD vote comes from a 'plague on both your houses' place. Both of these are easily transferable to Reform.
2019 was interesting in that it was a face-off between two anti-politics figures - Boris and Corbyn.
Sunak and Starmer are both vanilla politico politicians. Farage has scope to steal votes because this time he's the only standard-bearer for anti-politics.
Davey is also in the Sunak / Starmer camp. Albeit the Lib Dem are trying to show his more human / fun side, but nobody would describe him as standard-bearer for the outsider. He is centrist dad.
It is why I believe Corbyn got such maomentum in 2017. You had the politician mainstream saying keep calm and carry on, no real change required. And huge proportion of the population, f##k that. And why Boris played into the bigger state, levelling up, i.e. very un-Tory things.
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Farage enters the fray... Lab and LibDems take the biggest hit. Which seems a little... odd...
I don't think so. A lot of the Lab vote comes from a 'kick the Tories' place. A lot of the LD vote comes from a 'plague on both your houses' place. Both of these are easily transferable to Reform.
2019 was interesting in that it was a face-off between two anti-politics figures - Boris and Corbyn.
Sunak and Starmer are both vanilla politico politicians. Farage has scope to steal votes because this time he's the only standard-bearer for anti-politics.
Davey is also in the Sunak / Starmer camp. Albeit the Lib Dem are trying to show his more human / fun side, but nobody would describe him as standard-bearer for the outsider. He is centrist dad.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
It won't lack a Tory candidate when nominations close. They aren't that stupid. 😊
Just laid Biden for the Dem nomination. They can't keep this going, it's getting to the point where it is cruel.
It’s really awful to watch, on a human level.
I’m sure many of us have seen the deterioration of elderly relatives, but without it being headline news every day.
What I don't get is why people think Trump is less in decline. His ramblings, never the most coherent, are nothing but stream of consciousness self focused nonsense, yet even on his own side Biden is the one people worry about.
Check out Trumps polling numbers in battleground states. AND his fundraising since his conviction,
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Farage enters the fray... Lab and LibDems take the biggest hit. Which seems a little... odd...
I don't think so. A lot of the Lab vote comes from a 'kick the Tories' place. A lot of the LD vote comes from a 'plague on both your houses' place. Both of these are easily transferable to Reform.
2019 was interesting in that it was a face-off between two anti-politics figures - Boris and Corbyn.
Sunak and Starmer are both vanilla politico politicians. Farage has scope to steal votes because this time he's the only standard-bearer for anti-politics.
Davey is also in the Sunak / Starmer camp. Albeit the Lib Dem are trying to show his more human / fun side, but nobody would describe him as standard-bearer for the outsider. He is centrist dad.
Luke Tryl at MiC musing that Farage might eat into a broader base like UKIP did rather than just nabbing Con as they had been. Might we start seeing 30s for Labour and Ref Con close in the low 20s?
That’s what I’m wondering about. Step one in something very unusual playing out over 2-3 elections.
And as you say in your next post, some really odd results (in the context of a Labour landslide). Lots of volatility to make money on if you can get the info.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
Go for it, Sunil!
Why? I would rather eat glass!
Yeah, but if you got in we'd have someone on the insideproviding us with a steady stream of tips. Do it.
Completely separately, it appears that Hunter Biden firearms case is going reasonably well for the defendant. The defence is a simple one: Hunter was clean at the time of purchasing the gun, having completed a rehabilitation programme, and living with a sober companion, and that the terms "drug abuser or addict" are not defined.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
For the record, I do wonder if a Not Guilty verdict may further incense and motivate MAGA Republicans who believe the whole legal system is biased against them.
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Plus 7 but only -1 Tories.......... 2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
Yes, it's a mistake to think that Tory and Reform voters are fungible. In very special circumstances in 2019 Boris managed to attract both tribes, but in my view most Reform voters are normally Tory-sceptic if not outright Tory-hostile.
I view them as our equivalent (although thankfully a pale imitation both in nature and number) of the Trump MAGA base in the US.
Which of course is made up of a significant proportion of traditional democrat voters.
The shift is less right / left, more the winners vs losers of globalisation. The losers have tried all the traditional parties / politicians, are pissed off and willing to kick over the apple cart. That's Trump, that's Brexit, maybe now Farage.
And traditional non voters. The common thread isn't left right as you say. IMO it's shallowness, stupidity, ignorance and gullibility. They have these traits to a relatively high degree. But the political leaders exploiting them, the likes of Trump and Farage, are (usually) creatures of the right. Not always though. Eg you get your Galloway and Melenchon types trying to make waves in that space too. Overripe old men of the trad left who mix backward statist economics with backward social attitudes. Either way, it's sad.
Your second sentence - those characteristics aren't exactly absent from traditional parties' voters. As with Corbyn's voters - these people aren't voting Farage because they are wrong or misguided, they're doing so because the current settlement very much doesn't work for them.
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Plus 7 but only -1 Tories.......... 2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
Yes, it's a mistake to think that Tory and Reform voters are fungible. In very special circumstances in 2019 Boris managed to attract both tribes, but in my view most Reform voters are normally Tory-sceptic if not outright Tory-hostile.
I view them as our equivalent (although thankfully a pale imitation both in nature and number) of the Trump MAGA base in the US.
Which of course is made up of a significant proportion of traditional democrat voters.
The shift is less right / left, more the winners vs losers of globalisation. The losers have tried all the traditional parties / politicians, are pissed off and willing to kick over the apple cart. That's Trump, that's Brexit, maybe now Farage.
And traditional non voters. The common thread isn't left right as you say. IMO it's shallowness, stupidity, ignorance and gullibility. They have these traits to a relatively high degree. But the political leaders exploiting them, the likes of Trump and Farage, are (usually) creatures of the right. Not always though. Eg you get your Galloway and Melenchon types trying to make waves in that space too. Overripe old men of the trad left who mix backward statist economics with backward social attitudes. Either way, it's sad.
Your second sentence - those characteristics aren't exactly absent from traditional parties' voters. As with Corbyn's voters - these people aren't voting Farage because they are wrong or misguided, they're doing so because the current settlement very much doesn't work for them.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
It won't lack a Tory candidate when nominations close. They aren't that stupid. 😊
It’s v plez. I’m going to SPUNK my one photo on my dinner. As it were. A fantastic grilled dorade with lovely white wine on the Black Sea. I can see towers missiled by Putin from where I type this. Blackened hulks. And yet the douceur du vivre abides. God bless the Ukes. Slava Ukraini!!!!
Any news on the frontline venture?
I have several choices
1. Go to actual frontline at Kherson complete with flak jacket and hear actual missiles landing
But then I’ve heard bits of missiles landing ON MY ROAD sufficient to cause minor detonations so… what’s the point? The war is here. It is in Odessa, and it really is. This is an air/drone war as much as anything else and I can see it right here, from my nice seafood restaurants
2. Stay here. Nice seafood restaurants! Fascinating and dreamy Odessa. The lack of power and often internet is a bitch but you get used to it, maybe, somehow. Disadvantage, I have to go home via Chisinau and I am done with that bus journey and Chisinau is boring
3. Go insane and go to Kharkiv and face even more missiles but without the seafood restaurants and less power
4. (My fave at the mo). couple more days in Odessa eating fish and dodging drones and then do Kyiv. Never been. Am fascinated. What is the great city of Kyiv like right now? Another plus: I can avoid Chisinau and go home via beautiful Lviv then Cracow
Out of interest, is the border open for (insane) tourists or did you need the media credentials?
Just laid Biden for the Dem nomination. They can't keep this going, it's getting to the point where it is cruel.
It’s really awful to watch, on a human level.
I’m sure many of us have seen the deterioration of elderly relatives, but without it being headline news every day.
What I don't get is why people think Trump is less in decline. His ramblings, never the most coherent, are nothing but stream of consciousness self focused nonsense, yet even on his own side Biden is the one people worry about.
Check out Trumps polling numbers in battleground states. AND his fundraising since his conviction,
Last number I saw was $200m, including $70m in small individual donations and $100m from the estate of Sheldon Adelson.
Anecdotal evidence (from Twitter and commentators) of black Americans starting to say ‘he’s one of us’ after his conviction, which would be rather amusing if polling backs it up. The swing state polling last week all has Trump ahead.
Completely separately, it appears that Hunter Biden firearms case is going reasonably well for the defendant. The defence is a simple one: Hunter was clean at the time of purchasing the gun, having completed a rehabilitation programme, and living with a sober companion, and that the terms "drug abuser or addict" are not defined.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
For the record, I do wonder if a Not Guilty verdict may further incense and motivate MAGA Republicans who believe the whole legal system is biased against them.
You can bank on it. Heaven forbid it should be another example of the Republicans putting all their legal/impeachment hopes into the wrong cases...
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Plus 7 but only -1 Tories.......... 2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
Yes, it's a mistake to think that Tory and Reform voters are fungible. In very special circumstances in 2019 Boris managed to attract both tribes, but in my view most Reform voters are normally Tory-sceptic if not outright Tory-hostile.
I view them as our equivalent (although thankfully a pale imitation both in nature and number) of the Trump MAGA base in the US.
Which of course is made up of a significant proportion of traditional democrat voters.
The shift is less right / left, more the winners vs losers of globalisation. The losers have tried all the traditional parties / politicians, are pissed off and willing to kick over the apple cart. That's Trump, that's Brexit, maybe now Farage.
And traditional non voters. The common thread isn't left right as you say. IMO it's shallowness, stupidity, ignorance and gullibility. They have these traits to a relatively high degree. But the political leaders exploiting them, the likes of Trump and Farage, are (usually) creatures of the right. Not always though. Eg you get your Galloway and Melenchon types trying to make waves in that space too. Overripe old men of the trad left who mix backward statist economics with backward social attitudes. Either way, it's sad.
Your second sentence - those characteristics aren't exactly absent from traditional parties' voters. As with Corbyn's voters - these people aren't voting Farage because they are wrong or misguided, they're doing so because the current settlement very much doesn't work for them.
But they are shallow, stupid, ignorant and gullible. Because they refuse to believe the *right kind* of lies from politicians. Despite those lies being repeated for them at regular intervals
Completely separately, it appears that Hunter Biden firearms case is going reasonably well for the defendant. The defence is a simple one: Hunter was clean at the time of purchasing the gun, having completed a rehabilitation programme, and living with a sober companion, and that the terms "drug abuser or addict" are not defined.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
For the record, I do wonder if a Not Guilty verdict may further incense and motivate MAGA Republicans who believe the whole legal system is biased against them.
Wouldn't they be further incensed and motivated by any kind of verdict?
It’s v plez. I’m going to SPUNK my one photo on my dinner. As it were. A fantastic grilled dorade with lovely white wine on the Black Sea. I can see towers missiled by Putin from where I type this. Blackened hulks. And yet the douceur du vivre abides. God bless the Ukes. Slava Ukraini!!!!
Any news on the frontline venture?
I have several choices
1. Go to actual frontline at Kherson complete with flak jacket and hear actual missiles landing
But then I’ve heard bits of missiles landing ON MY ROAD sufficient to cause minor detonations so… what’s the point? The war is here. It is in Odessa, and it really is. This is an air/drone war as much as anything else and I can see it right here, from my nice seafood restaurants
2. Stay here. Nice seafood restaurants! Fascinating and dreamy Odessa. The lack of power and often internet is a bitch but you get used to it, maybe, somehow. Disadvantage, I have to go home via Chisinau and I am done with that bus journey and Chisinau is boring
3. Go insane and go to Kharkiv and face even more missiles but without the seafood restaurants and less power
4. (My fave at the mo). couple more days in Odessa eating fish and dodging drones and then do Kyiv. Never been. Am fascinated. What is the great city of Kyiv like right now? Another plus: I can avoid Chisinau and go home via beautiful Lviv then Cracow
Out of interest, is the border open for (insane) tourists or did you need the media credentials?
The border is open, and you don’t have to be (that) insane. I went last year, albeit with Ukranian Mrs Sandpit. Accept that you don’t have travel insurance though, but Lviv and Kiev are wonderful cities to visit.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
It won't lack a Tory candidate when nominations close. They aren't that stupid. 😊
Keith will be having his arm twisted something rotten
Need to be really clear, because I can see the myth building already, that there is no evidence in the underlying data of these polls that Labour votes are going to Reform.
Nor of fewer Tory/Labour switchers.
Small Labour drops in 3 of 5 polls are driven by others things.
I think it's plausible enough that Farage is attracting some votes that would have gone to Labour otherwise.
But in Starmer's position, given that the Tory strategy was 100% focussed on trying to regain votes from Reform, I think I would be very happy to sacrifice a few percentage points and have a 20-point lead over both the Tories and ReformUK evenly divided.
The Tories have about 18 hours to do a deal with RefUK, whereby they offer to stand down in about 100 seats where Reform are strongest in return for the party standing down in favour of the Tories in the other constituencies.
Reform have 156 candidates to name before 4 tomorrow, how many of those they fill might be crucial in seat betting. I think it's 54 Tory held seats with no ref candidate yet named
I take it Ilford North isn't the only seat lacking a TORY candidate?
It won't lack a Tory candidate when nominations close. They aren't that stupid. 😊
Keith will be having his arm twisted something rotten
TSE had to invent an abscess requiring multiple days out of action to avoid being parachuted into a seat...
The Tories have about 18 hours to do a deal with RefUK, whereby they offer to stand down in about 100 seats where Reform are strongest in return for the party standing down in favour of the Tories in the other constituencies.
It's too late. Farage will say no, publically out the offer and decline it and voters will flood from weakness to perceived strength. He's got them by the balls
right I have to walk to my hotel, can I just say that this trip has renewed my fervour for the Ukrainian cause
The slightly triumphant swagger of Lviv in 2023 has gone - we threw off Putin! We will hurl him into the Azov! Now it is much more gritty determination and sangfroid and fuck it, we endure. And, in its way, that is more admirable. That is true grace, courage under fire, endless endless fire
They have lost 100,000s of their finest young men - and still they fight. And fight. And fight. And they will not fucking lie down. I am humbled by them. They need everything we can give them
Well done, Leon. More joy in heaven, and all that.
I’ve never NOT wanted Ukraine to prevail. I despise Putin and would like him and his cronies pushed out of a window. I’ve just doubted Ukraine can win and I still seriously doubt they can win. I’m fairly sure they can’t, in fact - in terms of regaining all Ukraine including Crimea it seems unlikely
But what they can do - and, from being here, what I sense they might do - is prove such doughty and inconquerable opponents Putin will have to sue for a less than brilliant peace. Or lose another million men gaining 5 sq km
I dunno. Perhaps Putin will seize Kyiv tomorrow. But in terms of human mood - and that is all you sense when you go places - the Ukrainians don’t seem minded to admit defeat. They are grimly set on defending the rest of their country, and fuck the suffering endured thereby
Manpower is still their issue. They have no problem with courage. We must arm them to the teeth to make up for the lack of troops
The Tories have about 18 hours to do a deal with RefUK, whereby they offer to stand down in about 100 seats where Reform are strongest in return for the party standing down in favour of the Tories in the other constituencies.
And campaign as the Tory-RefUK Alliance?
I think Tories have to accept this is a no-win situation for them.
The Tories have about 18 hours to do a deal with RefUK, whereby they offer to stand down in about 100 seats where Reform are strongest in return for the party standing down in favour of the Tories in the other constituencies.
And campaign as the Tory-RefUK Alliance?
I think Tories have to accept this is a no-win situation for them.
The Tories have about 18 hours to do a deal with RefUK, whereby they offer to stand down in about 100 seats where Reform are strongest in return for the party standing down in favour of the Tories in the other constituencies.
And campaign as the Tory-RefUK Alliance?
I think Tories have to accept this is a no-win situation for them.
Farage only returned because he scents blood and the complete destruction of the Tory party...
The Tories have about 18 hours to do a deal with RefUK, whereby they offer to stand down in about 100 seats where Reform are strongest in return for the party standing down in favour of the Tories in the other constituencies.
Leading to a post-election merger, and Farage as LOTO?
While I can understand some voters being up for that, is it what grassroots Conservative members really want?
Comments
That said, the average Trump voter is a long way from the stereotype of the Jan 6th nutter. It probably is the case that the average Trump voter trying his best in his difficult life in his left-behind town, perceiving the contempt of the Democrat elite is not that different from his Nige-voting British equivalent.
Both parties need to knock some heads together, and come up with a better option for the person they want to have their finger on the big red button.
Goalkeepers Dean Henderson (Crystal Palace), Jordan Pickford (Everton), Aaron Ramsdale (Arsenal).
Defenders Lewis Dunk (Brighton & Hove Albion), Joe Gomez (Liverpool), Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace), Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa), Luke Shaw (Manchester United), John Stones (Manchester City), Kieran Trippier (Newcastle United), Kyle Walker (Manchester City).
Midfielders Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Conor Gallagher (Chelsea), Kobbie Mainoo (Manchester United), Declan Rice (Arsenal), Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace).
Forwards: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Jarrod Bowen (West Ham United), Eberechi Eze (Crystal Palace), Phil Foden (Manchester City), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa).
If they knew Maguire was buggered, I think I might have called up Eric Dier. He is no world beater but is tried and test at the highest level and actually been playing every week.
https://x.com/reformparty_uk/status/1149009483600932864
https://x.com/reformparty_uk/status/1143821408021168129
A frail old man or a loony authoritarian old man are the choices.
1. Go to actual frontline at Kherson complete with flak jacket and hear actual missiles landing
But then I’ve heard bits of missiles landing ON MY ROAD sufficient to cause minor detonations so… what’s the point? The war is here. It is in Odessa, and it really is. This is an air/drone war as much as anything else and I can see it right here, from my nice seafood restaurants
2. Stay here. Nice seafood restaurants! Fascinating and dreamy Odessa. The lack of power and often internet is a bitch but you get used to it, maybe, somehow. Disadvantage, I have to go home via Chisinau and I am done with that bus journey and Chisinau is boring
3. Go insane and go to Kharkiv and face even more missiles but without the seafood restaurants and less power
4. (My fave at the mo). couple more days in Odessa eating fish and dodging drones and then do Kyiv. Never been. Am fascinated. What is the great city of Kyiv like right now? Another plus: I can avoid Chisinau and go home via beautiful Lviv then Cracow
#JustKiddin'
And I think the dominant reason why Trump is - and should be - narrow favorite is that (as is pretty much universal across the developed world in the last few years) wages have not kept up with prices.
Need to be really clear, because I can see the myth building already, that there is no evidence in the underlying data of these polls that Labour votes are going to Reform.
Nor of fewer Tory/Labour switchers.
Small Labour drops in 3 of 5 polls are driven by others things.
The US used to be the land of cheap day to day living. That isn't the case anymore.
Or maybe the game is ahead of me these days; that is very possible.
My one photo of the day, from last August:
I wouldn't fancy a defence of Gomez, Dunk, Guehi, Konsa.
But I still find it fucking depressing.
Nigerian students hit by a financial crisis make up the majority of clients at a food charity, its manager has said.
An economic crash in Nigeria left international students struggling to afford tuition fees, with some at Teesside University blocked from their studies and ordered to return home.
Manager Debbie Fixter said 75% of clients at Thornaby's Sprouts Community Food Charity (SCFC) were affected students and the situation had pushed it to "maximum capacity".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cljjwg5dw34o
This story seems to hit various current issues.
Teesside university is ranked 100/130, down from 92/130.
https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/league-tables/rankings?tabletype=full-table
The slightly triumphant swagger of Lviv in 2023 has gone - we threw off Putin! We will hurl him into the Azov! Now it is much more gritty determination and sangfroid and fuck it, we endure. And, in its way, that is more admirable. That is true grace, courage under fire, endless endless fire
They have lost 100,000s of their finest young men - and still they fight. And fight. And fight. And they will not fucking lie down. I am humbled by them. They need everything we can give them
New Congressional hearing being planned with new witnesses.
He's a spiv, but he clearly knows how to do disillusionment.
The Tories have done this to us. What a shameful party. I'm starting to hope they get destroyed utterly. We (Lab skeptics ) can work out what to do about Labour later
Sunak and Starmer are both vanilla politico politicians. Farage has scope to steal votes because this time he's the only standard-bearer for anti-politics.
OLYMPIA — The GOP backers of three initiatives that could repeal or alter a trio of significant state policies are suing to keep information about the possible budget implications of each measure from appearing on voters’ ballots in November.
State analysts have said the initiatives, if passed, could reduce funding for education and environmental projects by billions of dollars. The long-term care initiative could potentially dismantle the state’s public long-term care insurance program.
A 2022 state law requires the state attorney general to spell out how state funding and services could be affected by initiatives that repeal, impose or change any tax or fee, or cause a net change to state revenue. The upcoming general election is the first time the disclosure law has become a factor because no initiatives qualified for the ballot in 2022 or 2023.
But the chairs of the state Republican Party and the Mainstream Republicans of Washington, Jim Walsh and Deanna Martinez, respectively, contend the law does not apply to the measures on Washington’s capital gains tax, carbon market and public long-term care insurance program. . . .
SSI - My expectation is that WA State Republicans will fail in effort to keep fiscal impacts of their initiatives off the ballot. Meaning that voters will see these numbers in their state-issued voter pamphlets, which are a tradition in WA and heavily relied on by voters.
NOT a good look for the GOP, obviously. And their legal arguments are NOT persuasive, methinks, for judges OR voters.
It is why I believe Corbyn got such maomentum in 2017. You had the politician mainstream saying keep calm and carry on, no real change required. And huge proportion of the population, f##k that. And why Boris played into the bigger state, levelling up, i.e. very un-Tory things.
And as you say in your next post, some really odd results (in the context of a Labour landslide). Lots of volatility to make money on if you can get the info.
For us.
Pim Fortuyn for example.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
For the record, I do wonder if a Not Guilty verdict may further incense and motivate MAGA Republicans who believe the whole legal system is biased against them.
As with Corbyn's voters - these people aren't voting Farage because they are wrong or misguided, they're doing so because the current settlement very much doesn't work for them.
As with Corbyn's voters - these people aren't voting Farage because they are wrong or misguided, they're doing so because the current settlement very much doesn't work for them.
Anecdotal evidence (from Twitter and commentators) of black Americans starting to say ‘he’s one of us’ after his conviction, which would be rather amusing if polling backs it up. The swing state polling last week all has Trump ahead.
But in Starmer's position, given that the Tory strategy was 100% focussed on trying to regain votes from Reform, I think I would be very happy to sacrifice a few percentage points and have a 20-point lead over both the Tories and ReformUK evenly divided.
But what they can do - and, from being here, what I sense they might do - is prove such doughty and inconquerable opponents Putin will have to sue for a less than brilliant peace. Or lose another million men gaining 5 sq km
I dunno. Perhaps Putin will seize Kyiv tomorrow. But in terms of human mood - and that is all you sense when you go places - the Ukrainians don’t seem minded to admit defeat. They are grimly set on defending the rest of their country, and fuck the suffering endured thereby
Manpower is still their issue. They have no problem with courage. We must arm them to the teeth to make up for the lack of troops
I think Tories have to accept this is a no-win situation for them.
While I can understand some voters being up for that, is it what grassroots Conservative members really want?