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And From The Other Side of the Pond… – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
And From The Other Side of the Pond… – politicalbetting.com

We’ve all forgotten (what with the excitement of Starmer v Sunak), but the US Presidential election continues… and on Betfair exchange, Trump has moved into a commanding lead.

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    First!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    Second like the LibDems?
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    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    Third
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    Just laid Biden for the Dem nomination. They can't keep this going, it's getting to the point where it is cruel.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,993
    Duguid civil war latest:

    "I want to express my sincere thanks to everyone who sent me messages of support after the news I shared last night about my not being put forward as the Scottish Conservative & Unionist candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
    I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand.
    It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis.
    Needless to say I am very saddened by the way this whole episode has unfolded and it would be wrong of me to pretend otherwise. But the process to adopt Douglas Ross to replace me as the candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is now well underway.
    For my part I would just like to say that it really has been an honour and privilege to serve you for the last 7 years."
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    There's a focaldata poll due later with post farage fieldwork and an ipsos Ecosse
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 290
    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/reform-uk-overtaking-conservatives-midlands-north-poll

    Reform ahead of the Tories in the Midlands and the North!
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863

    Duguid civil war latest:

    "I want to express my sincere thanks to everyone who sent me messages of support after the news I shared last night about my not being put forward as the Scottish Conservative & Unionist candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
    I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand.
    It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis.
    Needless to say I am very saddened by the way this whole episode has unfolded and it would be wrong of me to pretend otherwise. But the process to adopt Douglas Ross to replace me as the candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is now well underway.
    For my part I would just like to say that it really has been an honour and privilege to serve you for the last 7 years."

    That second from last sentence is far politer than I would have been
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,487
    2-1 is too much in a neck-and-neck two horse race, and while I suspect it also prices in a Biden withdrawal, tbh a Trump one (make your own jokes here), forced or otherwise, seems equally likely?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @e_casalicchio

    The @focaldataHQ polling puts Nigel Farage *one point* behind Rishi Sunak on who would make the best PM ... while for @RedfieldWilton Farage is preferred (albeit still in negative numbers)
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Plus 7 but only -1 Tories..........
    2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    eek said:

    Duguid civil war latest:

    "I want to express my sincere thanks to everyone who sent me messages of support after the news I shared last night about my not being put forward as the Scottish Conservative & Unionist candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
    I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand.
    It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis.
    Needless to say I am very saddened by the way this whole episode has unfolded and it would be wrong of me to pretend otherwise. But the process to adopt Douglas Ross to replace me as the candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is now well underway.
    For my part I would just like to say that it really has been an honour and privilege to serve you for the last 7 years."

    That second from last sentence is far politer than I would have been
    Indeed but perhaps he is biding his time. I suspect that a lot of hands are being stayed until 22:01 on polling day.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951
    edited June 6

    Duguid civil war latest:

    "I want to express my sincere thanks to everyone who sent me messages of support after the news I shared last night about my not being put forward as the Scottish Conservative & Unionist candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
    I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand.
    It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis.
    Needless to say I am very saddened by the way this whole episode has unfolded and it would be wrong of me to pretend otherwise. But the process to adopt Douglas Ross to replace me as the candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is now well underway.
    For my part I would just like to say that it really has been an honour and privilege to serve you for the last 7 years."

    Bit shit for him. Buuuuut he was a MP* of a party (eliding the SCUP/C&UP distinction) which adopted this sort of policy in government when it comes to the disabled:

    "They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis."

    *Haven't checked his actual voting record, to be fair.

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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,105

    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Plus 7 but only -1 Tories..........
    2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
    Is this the Survation or someone else?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,199
    tlg86 said:

    Just laid Biden for the Dem nomination. They can't keep this going, it's getting to the point where it is cruel.

    "It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so."

    Misattributed to Mark Twain, but probably apposite here.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073

    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Plus 7 but only -1 Tories..........
    2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
    Labour have lost their monopoly on the working class anti-Tory vote.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,374

    Duguid civil war latest:

    "I want to express my sincere thanks to everyone who sent me messages of support after the news I shared last night about my not being put forward as the Scottish Conservative & Unionist candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
    I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand.
    It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis.
    Needless to say I am very saddened by the way this whole episode has unfolded and it would be wrong of me to pretend otherwise. But the process to adopt Douglas Ross to replace me as the candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is now well underway.
    For my part I would just like to say that it really has been an honour and privilege to serve you for the last 7 years."

    Back in ‘97 upsetting a significant part of the Local Association cost the Conservatives the Castle Point seat.
    Subsequently a deal of humble pie was eaten.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906

    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Plus 7 but only -1 Tories..........
    2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
    Yes, it's a mistake to think that Tory and Reform voters are fungible. In very special circumstances in 2019 Boris managed to attract both tribes, but in my view most Reform voters are normally Tory-sceptic if not outright Tory-hostile.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290
    I totally agree with @rcs1000
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,532

    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Plus 7 but only -1 Tories..........
    2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
    And Con LibDem switchers going Reform???
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132
    Reform is taking a lot of 2019 Tories who had thought of voting Labour (or just not voting) it seems.

    People keep talking past each other here. From one perspective (2019) yes that’s Reform eating into the Tory vote. But it’s part of the Tory vote that was on its way back to Labour, having voted for it pre-Brexit.

    The Tories at 15-20% are at their floor. No further transfer to reform is possible and that got Reform to where is was: but the 2019 Tories can and are moving over to Farage, boosting them further.

    That’s what I see in the numbers anyway.

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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Just laid Biden for the Dem nomination. They can't keep this going, it's getting to the point where it is cruel.

    "It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so."

    Misattributed to Mark Twain, but probably apposite here.
    Quite probably, but the debates will be a complete car crash.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    Focal data is
    Lab 44 (+1)
    Con 25 (-1 )
    Ref 14 (+2)
    No other figs yet
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Which pollster!?!
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,395

    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Plus 7 but only -1 Tories..........
    2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
    Yes, a bit that, but also 2019 Con DKs switching to Reform would cut the Labour share more than the Tory one, even with Labour not losing any voters at all. So possibly not as dramatic as it looks in the headline figures.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,418

    Focal data is
    Lab 44 (+1)
    Con 25 (-1 )
    Ref 14 (+2)
    No other figs yet

    CON might get three figures on that!
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,216
    Labour down four in Survation too. Reform have clearly had a nibble.

    But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 290
    BMG has it

    LAB 42 CON 23 REF 16 LD 9

    Reform totals are not outliers
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @HugoGye
    🚨 NEW POLL 🚨

    Farage effect has taken hold - Tories fall by 4pts and Reform rises by 5pts compared to last week, leaving Labour with a 19pt lead

    @BMGResearch
    findings - Lab 42% Con 23% Ref 16% LD 9% Grn 6%
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,418
    USA: I can only see Biden winning. And possibly comfortably.

    But WARNING I have been wrong before!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    I think Baillie Gifford will come out of the Dissolution of the Book Festivals with its reputation enhanced. More people will know it sought to support book festivals & is a future-focused & environmentally friendly fund, & anyone sensible can see they're not the bad guys here

    https://x.com/HJoyceGender/status/1798752317141041227
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,532

    Labour down four in Survation too. Reform have clearly had a nibble.

    But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.

    Hard to say. Move to Reform might have been larger without it?

    Reform looking to be the home of the protest vote this election. Not the LibDems.

    Greens holding up. Protest vote from Labour?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    Poll Overload! Poll Overload, Poll Overload!...
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906
    On thread - ordinarily, in the UK, you get quite good odds on Republican candidates: the UK tends not to understand the attraction of, and therefore underestimate, the chances of a republican victory. (This is my long term general impression - happy to be corrected if anyone has actual data!) I wonder why it is not happening this time?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887

    Labour down four in Survation too. Reform have clearly had a nibble.

    But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.

    Survation had implausible high Lab shares the last couple of polls. They had 44% a month ago, so an element of reversion to mean on top of the Farage bubble.

    I suspect 43% would make Starmer very happy.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,841
    On topic: I agree that Joe is value at this price. Esp because (and this is new information for people) I have done a deal with my God whereby I've agreed to give up 75 seats of Labour majority in return for Trump coming up short in November.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,374
    boulay said:

    What’s the situation with Farage’s French girlfriend by the way? Is his push for power and then ban immigrants a really over complicated way of dumping her?

    “Sorry darling, I love you and all that but I’ve just banned immigrants so we must part our ways.”

    Well, his wife was German.
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,550
    Cookie said:

    On thread - ordinarily, in the UK, you get quite good odds on Republican candidates: the UK tends not to understand the attraction of, and therefore underestimate, the chances of a republican victory. (This is my long term general impression - happy to be corrected if anyone has actual data!) I wonder why it is not happening this time?

    It might be still happening - ie the odds should be even shorter
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,096
    edited June 6

    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Plus 7 but only -1 Tories..........
    2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
    I think several things going on. Move to Reform probably from both Con and Lab. Move Lab to Green. Possibly Con getting back a bit of previous support , cancelling out move to Reform.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    biggles said:

    Reform is taking a lot of 2019 Tories who had thought of voting Labour (or just not voting) it seems.

    People keep talking past each other here. From one perspective (2019) yes that’s Reform eating into the Tory vote. But it’s part of the Tory vote that was on its way back to Labour, having voted for it pre-Brexit.

    The Tories at 15-20% are at their floor. No further transfer to reform is possible and that got Reform to where is was: but the 2019 Tories can and are moving over to Farage, boosting them further.

    That’s what I see in the numbers anyway.

    Except the Tory floor is based on the assumption that they are the legitimate standard-bearer of the right. Crossover would kick that away and give permission to tribal voters to defect.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,532

    USA: I can only see Biden winning. And possibly comfortably.

    But WARNING I have been wrong before!

    The focus by November will be on the economy.

    Trump will be trying to stand in the way of an express train.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887

    Labour down four in Survation too. Reform have clearly had a nibble.

    But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.

    Hard to say. Move to Reform might have been larger without it?

    Reform looking to be the home of the protest vote this election. Not the LibDems.

    Greens holding up. Protest vote from Labour?
    Have you met any Reform voters yet, or do you still think it myth and hype?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    boulay said:

    What’s the situation with Farage’s French girlfriend by the way? Is his push for power and then ban immigrants a really over complicated way of dumping her?

    “Sorry darling, I love you and all that but I’ve just banned immigrants so we must part our ways.”

    He seems to like a bit of the foreign. His first wife was Irish, his second German, now a French long term girlfriend.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    Unsurprising. It was always a question if Red Wall advances could be retained, but the total abandonment coupled with underperformance in the southern Shires will be devastating.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    The Reform surge is on.

    With that kind of movement surely next YouGov will be Crossover?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    Taz said:

    I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.

    Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
    Ross is *already* both an MSP and Scottish Tory leader. He had announced he was quitting Westminster to focus on Holyrood. And refereeing. But obviously has changed his mind...
    The way the two main parties have treated candidate selection in this election is just awful. Completely treating local parties and local democracy as an inconvenience. Local members must do what they are instructed to.
    I love it - not that they are riding roughshod, but that they cannot ignore that the centralised power was always there for potential use.

    They can now properly decide as Members if they want to do something about it, to change the way the party operates. It would a long grind to have that happen. Or do they just kowtow?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Three polls with big reform gains now and all of them showing a substantial fall for Labour. Thats…interesting

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1798754156959653998
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,315
    Ghedebrav said:

    2-1 is too much in a neck-and-neck two horse race, and while I suspect it also prices in a Biden withdrawal, tbh a Trump one (make your own jokes here), forced or otherwise, seems equally likely?

    The higher than normal risk of either party withdrawing suggests this might be a market in which to lay the other one, rather than backing your own fancy.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,532
    edited June 6
    Foxy said:

    Labour down four in Survation too. Reform have clearly had a nibble.

    But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.

    Hard to say. Move to Reform might have been larger without it?

    Reform looking to be the home of the protest vote this election. Not the LibDems.

    Greens holding up. Protest vote from Labour?
    Have you met any Reform voters yet, or do you still think it myth and hype?
    Still only found two! And they were not exactly shy....
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,550
    edited June 6

    Labour down four in Survation too. Reform have clearly had a nibble.

    But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.

    The voter who voted tory in 2019 cos they liked Johnson, Gonna vote Labour in 2024 because there is no Johnson and Richard Tice is too posh but now voting Farage as he is known and liked by this type of voter - hence the nibble from labour I think. Reform will get more of these voters in the Red Wall and I suggest that seat calculators have too much of a uniform approach to Reform votes when they will actually concentrate in certain red wall seats and hence win more than predicted by uniform swing - perhaps up to 10
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682

    I think Baillie Gifford will come out of the Dissolution of the Book Festivals with its reputation enhanced. More people will know it sought to support book festivals & is a future-focused & environmentally friendly fund, & anyone sensible can see they're not the bad guys here

    https://x.com/HJoyceGender/status/1798752317141041227

    Once upon a time, I was a partner at a startup equity research company, Arete Research. Baillie Gifford had been a client, and my boss and I flew to Edinburgh to meet with them on their request. For 90 minutes, we presented on what we liked, and didn't like, and trends, etc. At the end of the presentation, the Baillie Gifford lead said to us "Thanks very much for that, much appreciated. Just so you know, we won't be paying you in future."

    Getting fired is fine.

    Being dragged up to Scotland, and then having our brains picked, and then not being paid for it...

    Well, put it like this, I thought it was pretty poor behaviour.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    Three polls with big reform gains now and all of them showing a substantial fall for Labour. Thats…interesting

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1798754156959653998

    OTOH there's BMG
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    edited June 6

    USA: I can only see Biden winning. And possibly comfortably.

    But WARNING I have been wrong before!

    I hope you're right, but it was so narrow last time, Biden is underperforming with some groups, Trump bizarrely remains unassailable with 90% of Republicans, and this time he is planning in advance how to use state power to challenge results.

    That Trump has succeeded in avoiding trial for seeking to overthrow an election or pressure election officials to change results is barmy, but is another reason he could win.
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,105
    kinabalu said:

    On topic: I agree that Joe is value at this price. Esp because (and this is new information for people) I have done a deal with my God whereby I've agreed to give up 75 seats of Labour majority in return for Trump coming up short in November.

    The key thing here is that they have scheduled the first Trump-Biden debate for June. That is unusually early and before the conventions. My take is that Biden is being given a trial run out. If the debate goes well and the polls narrow then great, if the debate goes badly and the polls widen, then enormous pressure will be brought to bear on him to stand down. A contested convention is risky but better than a surefire loser.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,532

    biggles said:

    Reform is taking a lot of 2019 Tories who had thought of voting Labour (or just not voting) it seems.

    People keep talking past each other here. From one perspective (2019) yes that’s Reform eating into the Tory vote. But it’s part of the Tory vote that was on its way back to Labour, having voted for it pre-Brexit.

    The Tories at 15-20% are at their floor. No further transfer to reform is possible and that got Reform to where is was: but the 2019 Tories can and are moving over to Farage, boosting them further.

    That’s what I see in the numbers anyway.

    Except the Tory floor is based on the assumption that they are the legitimate standard-bearer of the right. Crossover would kick that away and give permission to tribal voters to defect.
    No, they won't. There are large numbers of Tories who would never vote for Farage.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    Luke Tryl at MiC musing that Farage might eat into a broader base like UKIP did rather than just nabbing Con as they had been. Might we start seeing 30s for Labour and Ref Con close in the low 20s?
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,216

    BMG has it

    LAB 42 CON 23 REF 16 LD 9

    Reform totals are not outliers

    That’s LAB -1 CON -4 REF +5 LIB =0

    The Faragasm is real.

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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,418

    Three polls with big reform gains now and all of them showing a substantial fall for Labour. Thats…interesting

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1798754156959653998

    But given the split in the right wing voter would 33% be enough for LAB? They didn't get that last time and no one likes LAB really.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    rcs1000 said:

    I think Baillie Gifford will come out of the Dissolution of the Book Festivals with its reputation enhanced. More people will know it sought to support book festivals & is a future-focused & environmentally friendly fund, & anyone sensible can see they're not the bad guys here

    https://x.com/HJoyceGender/status/1798752317141041227

    Once upon a time, I was a partner at a startup equity research company, Arete Research. Baillie Gifford had been a client, and my boss and I flew to Edinburgh to meet with them on their request. For 90 minutes, we presented on what we liked, and didn't like, and trends, etc. At the end of the presentation, the Baillie Gifford lead said to us "Thanks very much for that, much appreciated. Just so you know, we won't be paying you in future."

    Getting fired is fine.

    Being dragged up to Scotland, and then having our brains picked, and then not being paid for it...

    Well, put it like this, I thought it was pretty poor behaviour.
    As Silicon Valley Tv show called it you were brain raped.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628

    boulay said:

    What’s the situation with Farage’s French girlfriend by the way? Is his push for power and then ban immigrants a really over complicated way of dumping her?

    “Sorry darling, I love you and all that but I’ve just banned immigrants so we must part our ways.”

    He seems to like a bit of the foreign. His first wife was Irish, his second German, now a French long term girlfriend.
    What did they do to the poor man to make him so scared of foreigners?
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,487
    Polling *gap* between Lab and Con seems to be pretty consistent across the polls. Reds 18-20pp ahead, even if the headline figures are more variable.

    Four weeks till polling day - we’ve had a third of the campaign done, and that’s without being drowned out by the footy noise. Looking bleak for the Blues.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,216
    The Sunak Debate Bounce appears to be a Reverse Bounce.

    Hmm.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Farage enters the fray... Lab and LibDems take the biggest hit. Which seems a little... odd...
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884

    Labour down four in Survation too. Reform have clearly had a nibble.

    But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.

    The voter who voted tory in 2019 cos they liked Johnson, Gonna vote Labour in 2024 because there is no Johnson and Richard Tice is too posh but now voting Farage as he is known and liked by this type of voter - hence the nibble from labour I think
    Yup. You could easily see a scenario where Red Wall seats come into play, potentially. It needs those voters to realise what is going on, but if they do..,.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073

    biggles said:

    Reform is taking a lot of 2019 Tories who had thought of voting Labour (or just not voting) it seems.

    People keep talking past each other here. From one perspective (2019) yes that’s Reform eating into the Tory vote. But it’s part of the Tory vote that was on its way back to Labour, having voted for it pre-Brexit.

    The Tories at 15-20% are at their floor. No further transfer to reform is possible and that got Reform to where is was: but the 2019 Tories can and are moving over to Farage, boosting them further.

    That’s what I see in the numbers anyway.

    Except the Tory floor is based on the assumption that they are the legitimate standard-bearer of the right. Crossover would kick that away and give permission to tribal voters to defect.
    No, they won't. There are large numbers of Tories who would never vote for Farage.
    That doesn't negate my point. Some wouldn't but some would.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited June 6
    tlg86 said:

    Just laid Biden for the Dem nomination. They can't keep this going, it's getting to the point where it is cruel.

    It’s really awful to watch, on a human level.

    I’m sure many of us have seen the deterioration of elderly relatives, but without it being headline news every day.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354

    BMG has it

    LAB 42 CON 23 REF 16 LD 9

    Reform totals are not outliers

    That’s LAB -1 CON -4 REF +5 LIB =0

    The Faragasm is real.

    Is it lasting?

    I don't think it matters massively - if it means they end up at say 10, rather than start at 10 and get squeezed to 5, it's job done of Tory destruction.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073

    Labour down four in Survation too. Reform have clearly had a nibble.

    But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.

    The voter who voted tory in 2019 cos they liked Johnson, Gonna vote Labour in 2024 because there is no Johnson and Richard Tice is too posh but now voting Farage as he is known and liked by this type of voter - hence the nibble from labour I think
    Yup. You could easily see a scenario where Red Wall seats come into play, potentially. It needs those voters to realise what is going on, but if they do..,.
    It's turning into the election that 2019 would have been without Johnson. The lack of enthusiasm for Starmer could turn out to be a very important factor.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628
    Foxy said:

    Labour down four in Survation too. Reform have clearly had a nibble.

    But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.

    Hard to say. Move to Reform might have been larger without it?

    Reform looking to be the home of the protest vote this election. Not the LibDems.

    Greens holding up. Protest vote from Labour?
    Have you met any Reform voters yet, or do you still think it myth and hype?
    I posted earlier with my struggle about the reform figure and Mark’s experiences show the weirdness as there must be plenty of constituencies where their appeal is close to zero so there must be ones where they are 99%. I’m hoping but doubting there is a snafu in all the polls but that’s hoping rather than belief.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,841
    Cookie said:

    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Plus 7 but only -1 Tories..........
    2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
    Yes, it's a mistake to think that Tory and Reform voters are fungible. In very special circumstances in 2019 Boris managed to attract both tribes, but in my view most Reform voters are normally Tory-sceptic if not outright Tory-hostile.
    I view them as our equivalent (although thankfully a pale imitation both in nature and number) of the Trump MAGA base in the US.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 6
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Plus 7 but only -1 Tories..........
    2019 Con Lab switchers going reform??
    Yes, it's a mistake to think that Tory and Reform voters are fungible. In very special circumstances in 2019 Boris managed to attract both tribes, but in my view most Reform voters are normally Tory-sceptic if not outright Tory-hostile.
    I view them as our equivalent (although thankfully a pale imitation both in nature and number) of the Trump MAGA base in the US.
    Which of course is made up of a significant proportion of traditional democrat voters.

    The shift is less right / left, more the winners vs losers of globalisation. The losers have tried all the traditional parties / politicians, are pissed off and willing to kick over the apple cart. That's Trump, that's Brexit, maybe now Farage.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    Lee Andersons prospects just shot up anyway
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,072
    rcs1000 said:

    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Farage enters the fray... Lab and LibDems take the biggest hit. Which seems a little... odd...
    LibDems yoyoing up and down 2% here and there is MoE stuff really.

    The 4% Labour seems odd, but I could believe there's a cohort of generically disaffected voters who've switched from "we're going to give those Tories a kicking by voting for the boring grey lawyer" to "we're going to give those Tories a kicking by voting for the affable geezer who likes a pint".
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877
    biggles said:

    Reform is taking a lot of 2019 Tories who had thought of voting Labour (or just not voting) it seems.

    People keep talking past each other here. From one perspective (2019) yes that’s Reform eating into the Tory vote. But it’s part of the Tory vote that was on its way back to Labour, having voted for it pre-Brexit.

    The Tories at 15-20% are at their floor. No further transfer to reform is possible and that got Reform to where is was: but the 2019 Tories can and are moving over to Farage, boosting them further.

    That’s what I see in the numbers anyway.

    2 years ago their "floor" was 30%
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354

    Focal data is
    Lab 44 (+1)
    Con 25 (-1 )
    Ref 14 (+2)
    No other figs yet

    CON might get three figures on that!
    Getting to three figures is now a par result for them. A good result is 150.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,096
    rcs1000 said:

    I think Baillie Gifford will come out of the Dissolution of the Book Festivals with its reputation enhanced. More people will know it sought to support book festivals & is a future-focused & environmentally friendly fund, & anyone sensible can see they're not the bad guys here

    https://x.com/HJoyceGender/status/1798752317141041227

    Once upon a time, I was a partner at a startup equity research company, Arete Research. Baillie Gifford had been a client, and my boss and I flew to Edinburgh to meet with them on their request. For 90 minutes, we presented on what we liked, and didn't like, and trends, etc. At the end of the presentation, the Baillie Gifford lead said to us "Thanks very much for that, much appreciated. Just so you know, we won't be paying you in future."

    Getting fired is fine.

    Being dragged up to Scotland, and then having our brains picked, and then not being paid for it...

    Well, put it like this, I thought it was pretty poor behaviour.
    I know someone who worked for Baillie Gifford. Didn't like them much as an employee for similar reasons to yours.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286
    Is this based on sub-samples or is it genuine?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    Farooq said:

    biggles said:

    Reform is taking a lot of 2019 Tories who had thought of voting Labour (or just not voting) it seems.

    People keep talking past each other here. From one perspective (2019) yes that’s Reform eating into the Tory vote. But it’s part of the Tory vote that was on its way back to Labour, having voted for it pre-Brexit.

    The Tories at 15-20% are at their floor. No further transfer to reform is possible and that got Reform to where is was: but the 2019 Tories can and are moving over to Farage, boosting them further.

    That’s what I see in the numbers anyway.

    2 years ago their "floor" was 30%
    And under Johnson it probably still would be.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,487
    rcs1000 said:

    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Farage enters the fray... Lab and LibDems take the biggest hit. Which seems a little... odd...

    rcs1000 said:

    ToryJim said:

    NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.

    LAB 43 (-4)
    CON 23 (-1)
    LD 9 (-2)
    GRN 5 (+2)
    RFM 15 (+7)
    SNP 3 (-)
    OTH 3 (-1)

    F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.

    Farage enters the fray... Lab and LibDems take the biggest hit. Which seems a little... odd...
    LibDems yoyoing up and down 2% here and there is MoE stuff really.

    The 4% Labour seems odd, but I could believe there's a cohort of generically disaffected voters who've switched from "we're going to give those Tories a kicking by voting for the boring grey lawyer" to "we're going to give those Tories a kicking by voting for the affable geezer who likes a pint".
    It seems straightforward to me. Con-Lab switchers now becoming Con-Ref switchers.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951

    Farooq said:

    biggles said:

    Reform is taking a lot of 2019 Tories who had thought of voting Labour (or just not voting) it seems.

    People keep talking past each other here. From one perspective (2019) yes that’s Reform eating into the Tory vote. But it’s part of the Tory vote that was on its way back to Labour, having voted for it pre-Brexit.

    The Tories at 15-20% are at their floor. No further transfer to reform is possible and that got Reform to where is was: but the 2019 Tories can and are moving over to Farage, boosting them further.

    That’s what I see in the numbers anyway.

    2 years ago their "floor" was 30%
    And under Johnson it probably still would be.
    Under Peel it would be even better. But both of them ran into reasons ...
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Hahahahahahahahahahah

    Sorry. Sober cough, It’s wrong to laugh at the misf

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    *ejaculates*
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    Andy_JS said:

    Is this based on sub-samples or is it genuine?
    Sub samples of the YouGov poll
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Just laid Biden for the Dem nomination. They can't keep this going, it's getting to the point where it is cruel.

    It’s really awful to watch, on a human level.

    I’m sure many of us have seen the deterioration of elderly relatives, but without it being headline news every day.
    What I don't get is why people think Trump is less in decline. His ramblings, never the most coherent, are nothing but stream of consciousness self focused nonsense, yet even on his own side Biden is the one people worry about.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,374
    Two years ago I could have been persuaded to stand for the local Council. Now, no way.
    And although I’m older than Biden I think I come across as a bit more on the ball.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    edited June 6
    Andy_JS said:

    Is this based on sub-samples or is it genuine?
    Subsamples from yesterday's Yougov...,
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682

    Cookie said:

    On thread - ordinarily, in the UK, you get quite good odds on Republican candidates: the UK tends not to understand the attraction of, and therefore underestimate, the chances of a republican victory. (This is my long term general impression - happy to be corrected if anyone has actual data!) I wonder why it is not happening this time?

    It might be still happening - ie the odds should be even shorter
    Well: Trump outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020. On the other hand, the Republicans meaningfully underperformed in 2022.

    My gut is that - like the last two elections- is that it's going to come down to a handful of states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.

    The polls show Michigan and Wisconsin as ties, but Trump leading in the others, albeit by very narrow margins. My gut says that Biden holds on in the rust belt, but loses in the sunshine States.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,934
    edited June 6

    biggles said:

    Reform is taking a lot of 2019 Tories who had thought of voting Labour (or just not voting) it seems.

    People keep talking past each other here. From one perspective (2019) yes that’s Reform eating into the Tory vote. But it’s part of the Tory vote that was on its way back to Labour, having voted for it pre-Brexit.

    The Tories at 15-20% are at their floor. No further transfer to reform is possible and that got Reform to where is was: but the 2019 Tories can and are moving over to Farage, boosting them further.

    That’s what I see in the numbers anyway.

    Except the Tory floor is based on the assumption that they are the legitimate standard-bearer of the right. Crossover would kick that away and give permission to tribal voters to defect.
    No, they won't. There are large numbers of Tories who would never vote for Farage.
    That doesn't negate my point. Some wouldn't but some would.
    Usual echo chamber caveats apply, but most of my right of centre friends would rather push hot needles into their genitalia than lend a vote to a man that many of us regard as a neo-fascist who was called out as a racist by none other than his housemaster at school and separately, the founder of UKIP, Alan Sked.

    (None of my friends are into CBT so far as I know)
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,418
    Don't forget during GE 2010 there were one or two polls where LD were ahead...
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    edited June 6
    If RefCon start getting 40 plus (BMG is 39 as is Survation) and Labour dip under 40 some very weird scenarios and results become possible - individual seat wise, NOT overall result
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    Labour down four in Survation too. Reform have clearly had a nibble.

    But no Debate Bounce for Sunak.

    The voter who voted tory in 2019 cos they liked Johnson, Gonna vote Labour in 2024 because there is no Johnson and Richard Tice is too posh but now voting Farage as he is known and liked by this type of voter - hence the nibble from labour I think
    Yup. You could easily see a scenario where Red Wall seats come into play, potentially. It needs those voters to realise what is going on, but if they do..,.
    It's turning into the election that 2019 would have been without Johnson. The lack of enthusiasm for Starmer could turn out to be a very important factor.
    Lay the turnout.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 6
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Just laid Biden for the Dem nomination. They can't keep this going, it's getting to the point where it is cruel.

    It’s really awful to watch, on a human level.

    I’m sure many of us have seen the deterioration of elderly relatives, but without it being headline news every day.
    What I don't get is why people think Trump is less in decline. His ramblings, never the most coherent, are nothing but stream of consciousness self focused nonsense, yet even on his own side Biden is the one people worry about.
    Because physically he still looks in reasonable shape. He doesn't have to be led by his wife (not that she would) around and unable to work out where he is. The fact he is a large man and a chubster I think makes him look physically strong, where as Biden looks very thin and frail.

    His ramblings are incoherent because he is making stuff up on the spot and bullshitting, also a lot of those rallies he is a bit like a comedian trying new material. He spews all sorts of shit and see what sticks i.e. get the crowd cheering. Then that gets filtered down into his greatest hits like lock her up.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    Leon said:

    Hahahahahahahahahahah

    Sorry. Sober cough, It’s wrong to laugh at the misf

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    *ejaculates*

    How’s the weather in Odessa?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286

    Three polls with big reform gains now and all of them showing a substantial fall for Labour. Thats…interesting

    https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1798754156959653998

    It isn't particularly interesting IMO. Farage was always going to be attractive to some Labour voters.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884

    Don't forget during GE 2010 there were one or two polls where LD were ahead...

    And at that point the Tory media went nuts and there was a rather sustained campaign against Clegg.

    Would they bother this time if the challenger is Farage? I think they’d be more likely to try and accentuate the surge rather than defeat it.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    All eyes on YouGov for the Times in the morning!
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,069
    boulay said:

    What’s the situation with Farage’s French girlfriend by the way? Is his push for power and then ban immigrants a really over complicated way of dumping her?

    “Sorry darling, I love you and all that but I’ve just banned immigrants so we must part our ways.”

    Is this really the best you can do?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    edited June 6

    kinabalu said:

    On topic: I agree that Joe is value at this price. Esp because (and this is new information for people) I have done a deal with my God whereby I've agreed to give up 75 seats of Labour majority in return for Trump coming up short in November.

    The key thing here is that they have scheduled the first Trump-Biden debate for June. That is unusually early and before the conventions. My take is that Biden is being given a trial run out. If the debate goes well and the polls narrow then great, if the debate goes badly and the polls widen, then enormous pressure will be brought to bear on him to stand down. A contested convention is risky but better than a surefire loser.
    If there was a charismatic, young, popular Democrat ready to stand in and take the fight to Trump, then yes, that would be possible.

    But there is no obvious successor. Harris is Vice President, but has the charisma of... well... something without charisma. She would certainly want her shot against Trump, but why would the Democrats dump Biden for her?

    I would love to see Trump against Ossoff or Buttigieg: an articulate, "next generation" candidate. But I also also don't see any path for them win the Presidency to become the nominee.

    So, unless Biden has a major health event, then I really don't see the path for an alternative candidate.
This discussion has been closed.