But thankfully these two guys met. Z must be wondering what the F is happening in the the UK that he’s the fourth PM since the war started.
Starmer, assuming he becomes PM on July 5th, and that Sunak is still PM then to go to the Palace to recommend his appointment as his successor to the Monarch, will be the 6th PM since the Russian seizure of Crimea, and the 8th PM since Putin first became President of Russia.
That's the reaction of democratic politics to a tough time which the country's leaders haven't really had that great a handle on, and I think it's probably a good contrast with Putin's indefinite rule in Russia.
And remember that's the Sun's chief political reporter - emphasising that Rishi went home as SKS talked with Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Prime Ministerial
Didn’t know which of the many meetings Sunak has had with Zelensky to share a photo from but I thought you might like this, two men with a good solid relationship not afraid to be tactile.
Just too many to choose from it’s a shame we didn’t have one more photo from the fringes of a ceremony.
A German teachers’ union has warned against lowering the voting age to 16 for national elections, shortly after polling data showed that the youth in the country are shifting to the Right.
It was good seeing SKS and Macron hugging and chatting like old friends today. It made you dare hope......
A German teachers’ union has warned against lowering the voting age to 16 for national elections, shortly after polling data showed that the youth in the country are shifting to the Right.
It was good seeing SKS and Macron hugging and chatting like old friends today. It made you dare hope......
On much more interesting news I’ve just discovered that “Rule Britannia” was a rebellious song written against George II by his opponents led by his son, the future George III.
A German teachers’ union has warned against lowering the voting age to 16 for national elections, shortly after polling data showed that the youth in the country are shifting to the Right.
It was good seeing SKS and Macron hugging and chatting like old friends today. It made you dare hope......
SKS needs to make the most of it, it’s Le Pen next, he’s going to hug her yes?
A German teachers’ union has warned against lowering the voting age to 16 for national elections, shortly after polling data showed that the youth in the country are shifting to the Right.
It was good seeing SKS and Macron hugging and chatting like old friends today. It made you dare hope......
On much more interesting news I’ve just discovered that “Rule Britannia” was a rebellious song written against George II by his opponents led by his son, the future George III.
And leading to a Labour majority of 326, according to Electoral Calculus
But, smart cookies will note the right wing vote sums to 38% there.
The political divide hasn't gone away. It's stayed at home or split.
Labour very very easily lose their majority next time.
I would look at those figures in more detail if I was you - the Reform / UKIP / Brexit vote is very much Reform not Tory voters - you can see that going all the way back to 2015.
Where the Tory party gets votes is from the centre ground and those votes are what is destroying Rishi and co at the moment. They may come back to the Tory party in 2028 - but not if the Tories select a right wing leader...
Yes heaven forfend they elect an unelectable rightwinger like Margaret Thatcher.
What fools they were picking her to replace Heath in 1975. No wonder Callaghan was re elected by a landslide in 1979...oh wait.
In today's volatile economic circumstances nothing is certain
The leaders debate could have been a lot more interesting. For some of us.
>> Heated debate << A show of naked ambition
The ITV Leaders' Debate on Tuesday was a fairly unedifying spectacle, but we should take solace in the fact that it could have been worse. Much, much worse.
The studio it was filmed in? HQ2 at Dock10, Salford Media City. The same one that's usually home to Naked Attraction.
And leading to a Labour majority of 326, according to Electoral Calculus
Labour very very easily lose their majority next time.
If they win a majority over 150 it’s electorally very unlikely, however much you might wish otherwise.
Remember, the current majority was c. 80.
Anything over 100 usually takes two bites and that’s even if your reputation hasn’t been trashed and you haven’t got a divided Right.
You told me to brace but I think it’s you that might need to do that. You’re going to be out of power for at least 9 years, possibly more.
You haven't got a fucking clue what you're talking about.
But it's kind of cute, in a way.
Well let me go more slowly with you. Answer this question: what was the biggest ever majority by any party to have been lost at the subsequent General Election?
On the Summer UFO's hearings story, the Congressman Tim Burchett says they are working on new whistleblower protections, because too many people pulled out last yesr at the last minute for fear of legal action.
“We’re working with some legal people and try to get something a little better than what's out there."
David Grusch gave a list of cooperative and hostile witnesses, what have they done with this list?
“That'll be part of the next hearing. I'm not giving out too many names, because, as you know, what happened the last time was that we originally had 12 people that were coming in, but we were left with 3."
Legal action because they knew they were going to be lying…
On much more interesting news I’ve just discovered that “Rule Britannia” was a rebellious song written against George II by his opponents led by his son, the future George III.
And leading to a Labour majority of 326, according to Electoral Calculus
Tories main Opposition with nearly double the LD seat total though and well ahead of Reform on voteshare too
Put in the tactical voting numbers being picked up by the polls - a third of Labour supporters and 36% of LD supporters prepared to vote tactically and it ends up 55 LDs and 49 Conservatives.
You may be lucky - perhaps some Labour and LD voters will vote Conservative tactically to stop Reform winning some of your seats, who knows?
As a last thought or two on this, there's an interesting recent quote on the UFO's issue from Tim Burchett, who has been one of the main congressional forces behind the hearings, along with a couple of Democrats, and who has been liaising with the US Inspector-General of Intelligence for the last year on it.
"It might be the fact that it’s just plain arrogance — they don’t think we deserve it,” Burchett said.
“I can’t tell you how many conversations I’ve had with high-ranking officials that have told me that America really can’t handle this stuff. It’s not their position to tell me who or what I can handle; we’re Americans, we ought to be able to take it. Give it to us,” Burchett continued."
Too much polling. Seriously. Moratorium on polling for a few days at least. A week or two. Westminster Twitter has become a drugs bore, getting high on data and only able to talk about how good the shit is, or whose stash is better or where the next hit is coming from.
And leading to a Labour majority of 326, according to Electoral Calculus
Labour very very easily lose their majority next time.
If they win a majority over 150 it’s electorally very unlikely, however much you might wish otherwise.
Remember, the current majority was c. 80.
Anything over 100 usually takes two bites and that’s even if your reputation hasn’t been trashed and you haven’t got a divided Right.
You told me to brace but I think it’s you that might need to do that. You’re going to be out of power for at least 9 years, possibly more.
Five years ago we all said that an 80 seat majority couldn’t be overhauled in one go. All the old 1945-2017 assumptions are dying. Things are volatile.
Who knows. Starmer might the new messiah, or he might be a flash in the pan.
On topic: Were I to bet serious money on this election, I would spend some time looking at the popularity of the candidates below the president on the ballots in the swing states.
In 2016, after I was surprised by the result, I looked at the swing states, and found a consistent pattern: Republican candidates below Trump on those ballots had run ahead of him in total votes. This is uncommon; there is usually a drop off as you go down the ballot.
And that led me to theorize that Trump won swing states in part because of "reverse coattails". Some Republican voters came out to vote for a candidate for governor, or Senate, or the House, and then voted for Trump because he was, after all, the Republican candidate. Had he been the only Republican on the ballot, they might well have stayed home.
What was the biggest ever majority by any party to have been lost at the subsequent General Election?
I think I know the answer
It depends. Technically the transition from the wartime coalition to the Conservative caretaker government but otherwise Labour in 1950. I imagine the latter is what you were alluding to.
If the Tory press gives this Sunak story the coverage they would give it if a Labour PM had done the same, I reckon we're looking at a total Tory meltdown in the polls. But it is a big if.
What utter rubbish, Sunak was at Southsea yesterday with Starmer for the UK D Day commemorations.
The Normandy services today were mainly for heads of state. I have just come back from our Parish D Day Anniversary Remembrance in Moreton. Playing politics on a day we should be remembering those who gave their lives for freedom is beneath contempt!!!
Not sure you thought through your last sentence !!!
The King is UK head of state not Sunak or Sir Keir Starmer.
It was right Sunak paid his respects then left Normandy as the focus was on the King and US and French Presidents leading the memorial. Yesterday was the UK service which Sunak attended in full with other UK politicians
On the Summer UFO's hearings story, the Congressman Tim Burchett says they are working on new whistleblower protections, because too many people pulled out last yesr at the last minute for fear of legal action.
“We’re working with some legal people and try to get something a little better than what's out there."
David Grusch gave a list of cooperative and hostile witnesses, what have they done with this list?
“That'll be part of the next hearing. I'm not giving out too many names, because, as you know, what happened the last time was that we originally had 12 people that were coming in, but we were left with 3."
Legal action because they knew they were going to be lying…
On the Summer UFO's hearings story, the Congressman Tim Burchett says they are working on new whistleblower protections, because too many people pulled out last yesr at the last minute for fear of legal action.
“We’re working with some legal people and try to get something a little better than what's out there."
David Grusch gave a list of cooperative and hostile witnesses, what have they done with this list?
“That'll be part of the next hearing. I'm not giving out too many names, because, as you know, what happened the last time was that we originally had 12 people that were coming in, but we were left with 3."
Legal action because they knew they were going to be lying…
If they’re not getting Bob Lazar to turn up, under oath, then it’s pointless.
And leading to a Labour majority of 326, according to Electoral Calculus
Labour very very easily lose their majority next time.
If they win a majority over 150 it’s electorally very unlikely, however much you might wish otherwise.
Remember, the current majority was c. 80.
Anything over 100 usually takes two bites and that’s even if your reputation hasn’t been trashed and you haven’t got a divided Right.
You told me to brace but I think it’s you that might need to do that. You’re going to be out of power for at least 9 years, possibly more.
Five years ago we all said that an 80 seat majority couldn’t be overhauled in one go. All the old 1945-2017 assumptions are dying. Things are volatile.
Who knows. Starmer might the new messiah, or he might be a flash in the pan.
Well I never said that because, as you may recall, I never agreed that 2019 was a typical General Election. I argued that it was a unique Get Brexit Done election.
But, be that as it may, an 80-seat majority has been lost on more than one occasion in this country - that’s your supplementary question.
If Labour do get a 150+ majority this time then it becomes vanishingly unlikely that it could be overturned in one sitting, even if all the fair winds on earth blew behind a revived tory sail.
Too much polling. Seriously. Moratorium on polling for a few days at least. A week or two. Westminster Twitter has become a drugs bore, getting high on data and only able to talk about how good the shit is, or whose stash is better or where the next hit is coming from.
Too much? This is a lot less polling than I can remember in previous elections.
What was the biggest ever majority by any party to have been lost at the subsequent General Election?
I think I know the answer
It depends. Technically the transition from the wartime coalition to the Conservative caretaker government but otherwise Labour in 1950. I imagine the latter is what you were alluding to.
Yes 1931 is anomalous because it was a National Government.
In 1950 Attlee’s Labour lost their 144 seat majority by two seats, or one really.
And leading to a Labour majority of 326, according to Electoral Calculus
Labour very very easily lose their majority next time.
If they win a majority over 150 it’s electorally very unlikely, however much you might wish otherwise.
Remember, the current majority was c. 80.
Anything over 100 usually takes two bites and that’s even if your reputation hasn’t been trashed and you haven’t got a divided Right.
You told me to brace but I think it’s you that might need to do that. You’re going to be out of power for at least 9 years, possibly more.
Five years ago we all said that an 80 seat majority couldn’t be overhauled in one go. All the old 1945-2017 assumptions are dying. Things are volatile.
Who knows. Starmer might the new messiah, or he might be a flash in the pan.
Well I never said that because, as you may recall, I never agreed that 2019 was a typical General Election. I argued that it was a unique Get Brexit Done election.
But, be that as it may, an 80-seat majority has been lost on more than one occasion in this country - that’s your supplementary question.
If Labour do get a 150+ majority this time then it becomes vanishingly unlikely that it could be overturned in one sitting, even if all the fair winds on earth blew behind a revived tory sail.
Nah. The issue you’re struggling with is the lack of precedents for such a big majority.
We haven’t had a “normal” election since 2005. I don’t think we will for some time.
And leading to a Labour majority of 326, according to Electoral Calculus
Labour very very easily lose their majority next time.
If they win a majority over 150 it’s electorally very unlikely, however much you might wish otherwise.
Remember, the current majority was c. 80.
Anything over 100 usually takes two bites and that’s even if your reputation hasn’t been trashed and you haven’t got a divided Right.
You told me to brace but I think it’s you that might need to do that. You’re going to be out of power for at least 9 years, possibly more.
Five years ago we all said that an 80 seat majority couldn’t be overhauled in one go. All the old 1945-2017 assumptions are dying. Things are volatile.
Who knows. Starmer might the new messiah, or he might be a flash in the pan.
True.
But the Conservatives are in this hole because of a double whammy (as Chris Patten put it.) Lots of bad luck (Plague and War) and lots of bad judgement (Boris, Liz, Rishi.) Without that combination, it's not going to be easy to overturn a mega majority.
Oh, and then there's the intervention of the Grim Reaper. I think that the turnover of dead righties to young lefties since 2019 has been enough, of itself, to nix the 2019 majority. And the "getting more right wing as people age" pipeline seems blocked.
The Conservatives need to run very fast to stand still. And the performance enhancing drugs they took in the 2010s are wearing off, leaving some unpleasant side effects behind.
And leading to a Labour majority of 326, according to Electoral Calculus
Labour very very easily lose their majority next time.
If they win a majority over 150 it’s electorally very unlikely, however much you might wish otherwise.
Remember, the current majority was c. 80.
Anything over 100 usually takes two bites and that’s even if your reputation hasn’t been trashed and you haven’t got a divided Right.
You told me to brace but I think it’s you that might need to do that. You’re going to be out of power for at least 9 years, possibly more.
Five years ago we all said that an 80 seat majority couldn’t be overhauled in one go. All the old 1945-2017 assumptions are dying. Things are volatile.
Who knows. Starmer might the new messiah, or he might be a flash in the pan.
I agree with this, and yet, we had very extreme events to lead us to the 2019GE 80-seat majority likely being overturned. We've had:
1. A global pandemic. 2. The PM lying about breaking his own rules for controlling the pandemic. 3. The PM lying about what he knew about putting an alleged sex pest into a position of power over his MPs. 4. The next PM only lasting 49 days after causing government debt, sterling and pensions crises. 5. A major war in Europe triggering an energy crisis that precipitated inflation of 25% over two and a bit years.
Although there are some underlying challenges that are difficult to deal with - the demographic transition, national debt, productivity and competitiveness, infrastructure, etc - we can hope that the next five years might be a bit less dramatic.
And remember that's the Sun's chief political reporter - emphasising that Rishi went home as SKS talked with Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Prime Ministerial
Looks morbe like zelensky saying "if you dont support us I am going to wring your scrawny neck" to me but then I only spent a few years making a living out of reading body language so what do I know
Starmer looks as if he is cradling a small mouse against the wind. Which is thoughtful of him.
Hang on a minute, I was posting something similar to this about ChatGPT shortly after it was released. Can't believe it's still happening! That was 12 or 18 months ago.
And leading to a Labour majority of 326, according to Electoral Calculus
But, smart cookies will note the right wing vote sums to 38% there.
The political divide hasn't gone away. It's stayed at home or split.
Labour very very easily lose their majority next time.
I would look at those figures in more detail if I was you - the Reform / UKIP / Brexit vote is very much Reform not Tory voters - you can see that going all the way back to 2015.
Where the Tory party gets votes is from the centre ground and those votes are what is destroying Rishi and co at the moment. They may come back to the Tory party in 2028 - but not if the Tories select a right wing leader...
Yes heaven forfend they elect an unelectable rightwinger like Margaret Thatcher.
What fools they were picking her to replace Heath in 1975. No wonder Callaghan was re elected by a landslide in 1979...oh wait.
In today's volatile economic circumstances nothing is certain
It's quite amazing the capacity of some of PB's complete pillocks shrewd political commentators can look at what's in-front of their face and steadfastly refuse to draw the obvious conclusion. The Tories have come in, expanded immigration massively, leaked votes to Reform, are now in danger of being obliterated by Reform, and they still declare the issue is that the Tories aren't centrist enough. They 'bought into Reform's talking points', as if the Tories would have been fine if only they'd politely ignored the 1.5 million people pouring in like a great-aunt's fart at the tea table.
And remember that's the Sun's chief political reporter - emphasising that Rishi went home as SKS talked with Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Prime Ministerial
Looks morbe like zelensky saying "if you dont support us I am going to wring your scrawny neck" to me but then I only spent a few years making a living out of reading body language so what do I know
Starmer looks as if he is cradling a small mouse against the wind. Which is thoughtful of him.
That's not a mouse. It's the one working class person that they'll protect come July 5th.
What’s the situation with Farage’s French girlfriend by the way? Is his push for power and then ban immigrants a really over complicated way of dumping her?
“Sorry darling, I love you and all that but I’ve just banned immigrants so we must part our ways.”
Surely he'll only ban immigrants he doesn't like ( which I suspect is most of them) and allow in people he likes. When you are as important as Nigel, these trifles can be waved away.
And leading to a Labour majority of 326, according to Electoral Calculus
Labour very very easily lose their majority next time.
If they win a majority over 150 it’s electorally very unlikely, however much you might wish otherwise.
Remember, the current majority was c. 80.
Anything over 100 usually takes two bites and that’s even if your reputation hasn’t been trashed and you haven’t got a divided Right.
You told me to brace but I think it’s you that might need to do that. You’re going to be out of power for at least 9 years, possibly more.
Five years ago we all said that an 80 seat majority couldn’t be overhauled in one go. All the old 1945-2017 assumptions are dying. Things are volatile.
Who knows. Starmer might the new messiah, or he might be a flash in the pan.
True.
But the Conservatives are in this hole because of a double whammy (as Chris Patten put it.) Lots of bad luck (Plague and War) and lots of bad judgement (Boris, Liz, Rishi.) Without that combination, it's not going to be easy to overturn a mega majority.
Oh, and then there's the intervention of the Grim Reaper. I think that the turnover of dead righties to young lefties since 2019 has been enough, of itself, to nix the 2019 majority. And the "getting more right wing as people age" pipeline seems blocked.
The Conservatives need to run very fast to stand still. And the performance enhancing drugs they took in the 2010s are wearing off, leaving some unpleasant side effects behind.
But things don’t stay static. I might be wrong, but I’m not sure the coalition Starmer will win on is any more stable. Net zero on one side and Red Wall on the other. Fabians on one side and Brexit voters on the other.
All will need to be held together against a backdrop of spending cuts and tax rises, during a European war, and while Starmer makes friends with a U.S. President his party hates.
A German teachers’ union has warned against lowering the voting age to 16 for national elections, shortly after polling data showed that the youth in the country are shifting to the Right.
It was good seeing SKS and Macron hugging and chatting like old friends today. It made you dare hope......
It's a gay thing.
If you're writing this fanfic, I'll read it.
"ChatGPT vX, please take this image of Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron and generate a five-minute video of them wrestling naked in front of a fireplace with pronounced sweat and chiaroscuro, in the manner of the film "Women In Love" (1969)"
And leading to a Labour majority of 326, according to Electoral Calculus
But, smart cookies will note the right wing vote sums to 38% there.
The political divide hasn't gone away. It's stayed at home or split.
Labour very very easily lose their majority next time.
I would look at those figures in more detail if I was you - the Reform / UKIP / Brexit vote is very much Reform not Tory voters - you can see that going all the way back to 2015.
Where the Tory party gets votes is from the centre ground and those votes are what is destroying Rishi and co at the moment. They may come back to the Tory party in 2028 - but not if the Tories select a right wing leader...
And yet some of those I talk to on the centre right are talking about voting Tory through gritted teeth. They don’t want Farage and they don’t want Starmer to have too large a majority
Namecheck for our very own @RochdalePioneers on Sophy Ridge tonight - because they are covering the “mess” in the Aberdeenshire seat
What’s the betting for the seat? I’ve just had a quick glance and it looks a certain SNP gain.
As Duguid the outgoing MP would be a constituent, I wonder if rival candidate should visit with a get well soon card and gift? If news of that got in the local press, it would lift their profile and come across as decent and human and neighbourly?
We're all wishing him well. He's a thoroughly decent human being. Not a voter though, boundary changes means he lives in Gordon and Buchan
A German teachers’ union has warned against lowering the voting age to 16 for national elections, shortly after polling data showed that the youth in the country are shifting to the Right.
It was good seeing SKS and Macron hugging and chatting like old friends today. It made you dare hope......
It's a gay thing.
If you're writing this fanfic, I'll read it.
"ChatGPT vX, please take this image of Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron and generate a five-minute video of them wrestling naked in front of a fireplace with pronounced sweat and chiaroscuro, in the manner of the film "Women In Love" (1969)"
Really scared now that someone will train a large language model on PB….
A German teachers’ union has warned against lowering the voting age to 16 for national elections, shortly after polling data showed that the youth in the country are shifting to the Right.
It was good seeing SKS and Macron hugging and chatting like old friends today. It made you dare hope......
It's a gay thing.
If you're writing this fanfic, I'll read it.
"ChatGPT vX, please take this image of Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron and generate a five-minute video of them wrestling naked in front of a fireplace with pronounced sweat and chiaroscuro, in the manner of the film "Women In Love" (1969)"
Really scared now that seen one will train a large language model on PB….
What did you think the last "server upgrade" by RCS was for?
A German teachers’ union has warned against lowering the voting age to 16 for national elections, shortly after polling data showed that the youth in the country are shifting to the Right.
It was good seeing SKS and Macron hugging and chatting like old friends today. It made you dare hope......
It's a gay thing.
Why don't you return to the 1970s where you belong. Ooh er Mrs!
Even if they were an item, surely we are way past taking the piss.
The Sunak Debate Bounce appears to be a Reverse Bounce.
Hmm.
It’s the problems Sunak set up for the rest of the campaign with his lies to answer every question, that will prove the enduring take out.
No matter how batshit Penny knows these answers are, she must take the stage tomorrow and tell the voters boat crossings are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it. Etc etc.
After the lead on answers Sunak has firmly set, all opponents are ready and waiting now to debate Tories, wherever, whenever, and as often as they can. 🫣
The Sunak Debate Bounce appears to be a Reverse Bounce.
Hmm.
It’s the problems Sunak set up for the rest of the campaign with his lies to answer every question, that will prove the enduring take out.
No matter how batshit Penny knows these answers are, she must take the stage tomorrow and tell the voters boat crossings are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it. Etc etc.
After the lead on answers Sunak has firmly set, all opponents are ready and waiting now to debate Tories, wherever, whenever, and as often as they can. 🫣
You are right on this point. Mark Harper spent the beginning of BBCQT tonight defending the indefensible just as you describe.
And remember that's the Sun's chief political reporter - emphasising that Rishi went home as SKS talked with Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Prime Ministerial
Looks morbe like zelensky saying "if you dont support us I am going to wring your scrawny neck" to me but then I only spent a few years making a living out of reading body language so what do I know
Starmer looks as if he is cradling a small mouse against the wind. Which is thoughtful of him.
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
Farage enters the fray... Lab and LibDems take the biggest hit. Which seems a little... odd...
I don't think so. A lot of the Lab vote comes from a 'kick the Tories' place. A lot of the LD vote comes from a 'plague on both your houses' place. Both of these are easily transferable to Reform.
The electorate don't care if they shoot their load over Labour or Reform provided the bukkake is good.
Have DuraAce and CR got their identities mixed up?
Here in the hyper marginal constituency of East Ham where Sir Stephen Timms clings on by his fingertips to his 33,000 majority, the election campaign is finally underway.
Supporters of Tahir Mirza, running as an Independent candidate, were leafletting outside East Ham tube station this evening.
The A4 leaflet isn't too bad but I can't reproduce for fear of causing apoplexy or a surfeit of something among the more Conservatively-inclined. Not only are there three pictures of Mr Mirza, formerly chair of East Ham CLP, with Jeremy Corbyn, there is also one with George Galloway who "supports" Mr Mirza (no Workers' Party candidate for East Ham).
The two main topics for Tahir Mirza's rant are Newham Council, who are berated for parking permit charges and other anti-motorist actions which could be reproduced on any Conservative leaflet and Starmer's attitude on Gaza. It's the same line which has served the Newham Independents so well in recent Council by-elections in Boleyn and Plaistow.
Mirza's campaign is well funded and organised by former Labour activists who once helped the current Mayor of Newham overthrow her predecessor but who were dumped as quickly as a cold kebab at 3am. They've never forgiven Roksana Fiaz or forgotten how Labour treated them.
Tory MP texts tonight in total disgust about PM leaving the D Day commemorations early. Said when they saw the picture of Cameron with the other world leaders at the ceremony, they initially thought the BBC had chosen the wrong picture.
A German teachers’ union has warned against lowering the voting age to 16 for national elections, shortly after polling data showed that the youth in the country are shifting to the Right.
It was good seeing SKS and Macron hugging and chatting like old friends today. It made you dare hope......
It's a gay thing.
If you're writing this fanfic, I'll read it.
"ChatGPT vX, please take this image of Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron and generate a five-minute video of them wrestling naked in front of a fireplace with pronounced sweat and chiaroscuro, in the manner of the film "Women In Love" (1969)"
Really scared now that someone will train a large language model on PB….
Comments
Remember, the current majority was c. 80.
Anything over 100 usually takes two bites and that’s even if your reputation hasn’t been trashed and you haven’t got a divided Right.
You told me to brace but I think it’s you that might need to do that. You’re going to be out of power for at least 9 years, possibly more.
That's the reaction of democratic politics to a tough time which the country's leaders haven't really had that great a handle on, and I think it's probably a good contrast with Putin's indefinite rule in Russia.
Didn’t know which of the many meetings Sunak has had with Zelensky to share a photo from but I thought you might like this, two men with a good solid relationship not afraid to be tactile.
Just too many to choose from it’s a shame we didn’t have one more photo from the fringes of a ceremony.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/c4nne8zrg8nt#Scorecard
On a point of pedantry:
George III was not the son of George II.
You may be thinking of George II's actual son, Frederick Prince of Wales, who died in 1751.
Labour and Greens do.
SKS makes a pitch to Muslim voters not to defect. Not quite sure how this will be anything more than tokenism.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/06/keir-starmer-expected-push-palestinian-state-labour-manifesto
Great idea. Apart from being the right thing to do it'll bring a hell of a lot of votes and good people back.
But it's kind of cute, in a way.
Now who would have bet on that....apart of course from the Pakistan team?
What fools they were picking her to replace Heath in 1975. No wonder Callaghan was re elected by a landslide in 1979...oh wait.
In today's volatile economic circumstances nothing is certain
The leaders debate could have been a lot more interesting. For some of us.
>> Heated debate <<
A show of naked ambition
The ITV Leaders' Debate on Tuesday was a fairly unedifying spectacle, but we should take solace in the fact that it could have been worse. Much, much worse.
The studio it was filmed in? HQ2 at Dock10, Salford Media City. The same one that's usually home to Naked Attraction.
You may be lucky - perhaps some Labour and LD voters will vote Conservative tactically to stop Reform winning some of your seats, who knows?
What could possibly go wrong?
"It might be the fact that it’s just plain arrogance — they don’t think we deserve it,” Burchett said.
“I can’t tell you how many conversations I’ve had with high-ranking officials that have told me that America really can’t handle this stuff. It’s not their position to tell me who or what I can handle; we’re Americans, we ought to be able to take it. Give it to us,” Burchett continued."
@SkyNews
AI chatbot used by hundreds of millions stops answering questions about election results after wrong answers
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1798769608406761668
Too much polling. Seriously. Moratorium on polling for a few days at least. A week or two. Westminster Twitter has become a drugs bore, getting high on data and only able to talk about how good the shit is, or whose stash is better or where the next hit is coming from.
Who knows. Starmer might the new messiah, or he might be a flash in the pan.
Back to Farage.
In 2016, after I was surprised by the result, I looked at the swing states, and found a consistent pattern: Republican candidates below Trump on those ballots had run ahead of him in total votes. This is uncommon; there is usually a drop off as you go down the ballot.
And that led me to theorize that Trump won swing states in part because of "reverse coattails". Some Republican voters came out to vote for a candidate for governor, or Senate, or the House, and then voted for Trump because he was, after all, the Republican candidate. Had he been the only Republican on the ballot, they might well have stayed home.
For example, Marco Rubio may have helped Trump win Florida, since Rubio received 4,835,191 votes, Trump 4,617,886.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Rubio#Electoral_history
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida
(Incidentally, reverse coattails could help explain the problemswith the polls in those swing states.)
What was the biggest ever majority by any party to have been lost at the subsequent General Election?
I think I know the answer
But, be that as it may, an 80-seat majority has been lost on more than one occasion in this country - that’s your supplementary question.
If Labour do get a 150+ majority this time then it becomes vanishingly unlikely that it could be overturned in one sitting, even if all the fair winds on earth blew behind a revived tory sail.
In 1950 Attlee’s Labour lost their 144 seat majority by two seats, or one really.
We haven’t had a “normal” election since 2005. I don’t think we will for some time.
But the Conservatives are in this hole because of a double whammy (as Chris Patten put it.) Lots of bad luck (Plague and War) and lots of bad judgement (Boris, Liz, Rishi.) Without that combination, it's not going to be easy to overturn a mega majority.
Oh, and then there's the intervention of the Grim Reaper. I think that the turnover of dead righties to young lefties since 2019 has been enough, of itself, to nix the 2019 majority. And the "getting more right wing as people age" pipeline seems blocked.
The Conservatives need to run very fast to stand still. And the performance enhancing drugs they took in the 2010s are wearing off, leaving some unpleasant side effects behind.
1. A global pandemic.
2. The PM lying about breaking his own rules for controlling the pandemic.
3. The PM lying about what he knew about putting an alleged sex pest into a position of power over his MPs.
4. The next PM only lasting 49 days after causing government debt, sterling and pensions crises.
5. A major war in Europe triggering an energy crisis that precipitated inflation of 25% over two and a bit years.
Although there are some underlying challenges that are difficult to deal with - the demographic transition, national debt, productivity and competitiveness, infrastructure, etc - we can hope that the next five years might be a bit less dramatic.
“I’ll let you analyse that bowling”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/c4nne8zrg8nt
All will need to be held together against a backdrop of spending cuts and tax rises, during a European war, and while Starmer makes friends with a U.S. President his party hates.
It could be quite a wacky seat, but Lab hold I reckon. Webbe will hardly get any votes.
That might wind up anyone.
Especially since in practice it makes little difference. The dot ball is the key.
Even if they were an item, surely we are way past taking the piss.
No matter how batshit Penny knows these answers are, she must take the stage tomorrow and tell the voters boat crossings are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do most of it. Etc etc.
After the lead on answers Sunak has firmly set, all opponents are ready and waiting now to debate Tories, wherever, whenever, and as often as they can. 🫣
EXCL: In his first interview since Tuesday's debate, Sunak denies he is a "liar".
Starmer has repeatedly accused him of lying about Labour's tax plans.
“It’s desperate stuff. They are obviously very rattled", Sunak says.
Wow! #BBCQT
Mark Harper repeats Rishi Sunak's lie about the £2,000 Labour tax
Fiona Bruce calls him out on it
Mark Harper doubles down
Fiona Bruce reads out the letter
Mark Harper triples down on it
Shabana Mahmood jumps in and calls him out
Look at Mark Harpers face - he knows he's telling lies and yet he carries on, Shameful
It isn't! America win the super over!
(Mr Jones looks useful, by the way.)
Supporters of Tahir Mirza, running as an Independent candidate, were leafletting outside East Ham tube station this evening.
The A4 leaflet isn't too bad but I can't reproduce for fear of causing apoplexy or a surfeit of something among the more Conservatively-inclined. Not only are there three pictures of Mr Mirza, formerly chair of East Ham CLP, with Jeremy Corbyn, there is also one with George Galloway who "supports" Mr Mirza (no Workers' Party candidate for East Ham).
The two main topics for Tahir Mirza's rant are Newham Council, who are berated for parking permit charges and other anti-motorist actions which could be reproduced on any Conservative leaflet and Starmer's attitude on Gaza. It's the same line which has served the Newham Independents so well in recent Council by-elections in Boleyn and Plaistow.
Mirza's campaign is well funded and organised by former Labour activists who once helped the current Mayor of Newham overthrow her predecessor but who were dumped as quickly as a cold kebab at 3am. They've never forgiven Roksana Fiaz or forgotten how Labour treated them.
Tory MP texts tonight in total disgust about PM leaving the D Day commemorations early. Said when they saw the picture of Cameron with the other world leaders at the ceremony, they initially thought the BBC had chosen the wrong picture.
We all know Labour will raise your taxes after the election, and we haven't a clue how much.
This is if anything an understatement.