Tories still quite some way off a full slate of candidates?
Reform on 465, strangely DOWN 5… are they waiting for something to happen tomorrow?
I don't understand this twitter post. How can anyone know what a particular party is going to do wrt nominations? Declared candidates is totally different to whether or not a party has a candidate ready to be nominated.
Tories still quite some way off a full slate of candidates?
Reform on 465, strangely DOWN 5… are they waiting for something to happen tomorrow?
I hadn't realised they were that far behind.
Nominations are normally submitted by the local conservative associations, aren't they? CCHQ must be starting to panic at this point - this could dominate tomorrow's news agenda, even if they do eventually manage to submit papers in most constituencies in time.
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey is the clear successor seat to Moray. ANME is the clear successor seat to Duguid's old Banff & Buchan. It's objectively more a move than it is staying put. From Forres (western part of Moray) to Peterhead (eastern part of ANME) it's more than a 2 hour drive.
A chicken run is usually defined as moving to a seat which doesn't contain any of the MP's previous seat. That isn't the case here. For example Richard Holden moving from North West Durham to Basildon & Billericay.
OK it's not a 100% chicken run, but using a combination of your position in the party to push out the existing candidate because they are ill doesn't make a good look..
Curious as to why? 41 seats seems eminently achievable for the Lib Dems given the strength of their ground game and the depressed Tory vote.
The latter is much more difficult of course but 6.6 for something that is coming up repeatedly in MRPs does not seem bad at all…
41 seats is definitely achievable. I've pinned my colours to them getting 42. But 1.6 for 41 or over looks like a value sell. Similarly, if we're around the 40 mark, I don't see a route to second place. I feel the Reform effect is exaggerated and I don't think they'll get 15%. Tory clawback of Reform vote both helps themselves and hurts the Lib Dem seat count.
But good luck with your bets, I won't be sad to be wrong in either case.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
What is the 'VAT Bounce' when it is at home?
I believe MoonRabbit predicted a significant recovery in Con polling when they went big on the Lab private school VAT policy and the masses were horrified by this assault on aspiration.
That, IIRC, was her prediction. But if you don't like that prediction, she has others.
By chance when looking for something else I found this: So though she obviously changed her mind there was a time when she predicted July4th. So well done Moon. You really are the messiah!!
MoonRabbit Posts: 12,914 May 16
Anabobazina said:
» show previous quotes She is now (or was) certain it will be in July and cannot possibly be any other month. I dare say her serial certainty will continue all bloody year.
It won’t be July 4th now, it’s already too late to call it with close down next week.
I think Sunak likes being Prime Minister, and it eats him up he’s getting chucked out. Even if experts point to the optimum day in 2024 he will lose less seats and help the party by choosing that, I still think he’ll hang on till the end based on self interest. I wouldn’t even rule out January. Flag Quote · 1Like
To be fair to MR, she is open to changing her mind (see today's posts on the debate compared to those during the debate). I find her an entertaining poster.
@leon you visited Paris at the wrong time. We cycled around the sights before setting off for Orleans and the prep for the Olympics is impressive. Only beggar we saw was being escorted away by 3 Gendarmes, all the litter has been picked up and the buildings hosed down. Every blade of grass is being cut to an inch of its life. The stands and decorations are going up. See surfer in the picture.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
Again you make sound points. Do I detect a wobble in your Tory vote? Are you heading back into the warm embrace of Wavey Davey?
No. The election being called was a horrible shock. Even though I did predict both the shock announcement and the actual day. I now think he should have waited. Then the polls, and the spread markets, and everyone on PB excited at Conservative wipe out event made me feel sick for a week.
Now I think, at least it draws a line, and Conservatives can go back to being proper Conservatives again. Slowly. So there is no point me posting anything other than the true history of this election, and cut through everybody’s spin.
The Conservative debates and leadership election that come after is the important thing.
As usual, I agree with very little of this.
There's still four weeks to go and plenty of time for events but the current situation remains dire for the Conservatives.
It's not a big journey from 150 to 100 or even 50 if MRP numbers are to be believed (I don't). The topline polls continue to show Labour in the low to mid 40s and the Conservatives in the low to mid 20s. The Conservative objective must now be to finish second in terms of seats (votes don't matter) and remain His Majesty's Loyal Opposition. The possibility that may not happen exists if tactical voting plays the part some think it will.
As to what will happen after the election and let's assume for now the Conservatives do finish second with between 100-150 seats (not unreasonable from where we are now). The options will either be to quickly unite behind a new leader (improbable) or have that time-honoured phrase - "a battle for the soul of the party".
Will the Conservatives use their autumn conference as a kind of leadership hustings? Seems reasonable - no one outside the party or forums like this will care very much. Perhaps you should join to have a vote in any membership ballot and try to work out which of the undeserving is nearest your version of "Conservatism" (whatever that is).
The individual who emerges from that sea of electoral hazard will face a party in ruins and the first question won't be how to deal with Labour or even the LDs but how to deal with Reform - again, let's assume Farage is their sole MP. Will someone like a Braverman basically grovel to him to get him back in the fold - propose a merger between the two parties to fight the common "progressive" enemy?
Here's a thought - the Reform leadership may sound like post-Thatcherites but the Reform membership is or are very different and many of them aren't conservative by any measure.
As we know, leaders "evolve" - look at Kinnock and how he shifted in opposition from 1983 to 1992. When parties become serious about wanting power, they are happy to pick the leader most likely to take them there and the funerla pyre of sacred cows slaughtered on that journey will be impressive.
The Conservative Party which wins back power will be unrecognisable from the one which loses it.
As usual we don’t agree on much 🤦♀️
Except a 100-150 is what it looks like. 👍🏻
You have given a gloomy view of Conservative recovery. But it only took 13 years to be back in government after 1997. And the bad 1906 result, to the 1924 landslide isn’t far behind.
Yet again you are ignoring the number of voters who want to vote for centre right are nearly always much more than who wants to vote centre left, and even looking at the current polls this is obvious, despite such a mess this government has been. So I ask you to consider realignment of the centre right could happen a lot quicker than you might think.
“try to work out which of the undeserving is nearest your version of "Conservatism" (whatever that is).”
That’s easy to answer. I know what Conservatism is 🙂
Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action. This is why it’s returning to UK government a lot sooner than you currently imagine.
It’s interesting you outed yourself today as a synethete. You get all this psephology guidance to share with us, by sniffing the polls.
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey is the clear successor seat to Moray. ANME is the clear successor seat to Duguid's old Banff & Buchan. It's objectively more a move than it is staying put. From Forres (western part of Moray) to Peterhead (eastern part of ANME) it's more than a 2 hour drive.
A chicken run is usually defined as moving to a seat which doesn't contain any of the MP's previous seat. That isn't the case here. For example Richard Holden moving from North West Durham to Basildon & Billericay.
I don't really care whether you call it a chicken run or not. But this is a move for Ross, not a continuation for the reasons I set out. It is an overlapping move, to be sure. It's easy to characterise it as a panic move because the timing is very weird. They've known about the boundary changes for a long time. I don't know for sure whether panic is a motivation, it just has that look about it.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
At the PO Inquiry, Alice Perkins just accused Paula Vennells of lying.
I missed that. Have to wind back later on.
It concerned Vennells remark (in an email) to the effect that Perkins advised her that if you want to get the answer you want you have to phrase the question so as to elicit it. Perkins denied all knowledge.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
My view now is that we are increasingly looking at Reform being the Loyal Opposition on 5th July.
I just went for a short walk and a thought occured to me...... Did a young linesman from Morayshire get visited by three witches yesterday? Hail wee Dougie, leader of the Scons Hall wee Dougie MP for Aberdeenshire and Moray East Hail wee Dougie thou shalt be LOTO hereafter......
Does he think given the SNP woes he's gaining seats and can present himself as the face of 'successful Unionism and Conservatism'? Set against carnage in the rest of the UK. Is that what this is all about?
I can't even find odds.......
Arise Sir Alec Dougie Ross
Out, damned Ross; out!
Something wicked this way comes (to your constituency)
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Given that if YouGov hadn't changed its methodology, it would already have had a tie between Con and Refuk, unless it was an outlier we could expect to (3) in the next few days just through sampling variation.
Am I the only one on here that has taken the 8/1 from SkyBet on SKS getting fewer actual votes than the 12.9m in 2017?
Is 8/1 not fantastic value?
No, it could be a good bet if turnout is down..
The last election had 47m registered and a turnout of 67% = c.32m votes. 2017 election had 47m registered and a turnout of 69% = c.33m votes. Corbyn’s 12.9m was 40%
So if we assume 48m registered, but a turnout of say 60% (as in 2001), that’s 28.8m votes in total, so 12.9m votes is just under 45%
At 8/1 that’s actually a pretty good bet. @bigjohnowls
Precisely. Turnout has a big effect on the numbers, to state the obvious. Blair got less votes in 1997 than Major did in 1992 because turnout dropped from 77.7% to 71.4%.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
2 Sunak should thank his lucky stars Starmer excluded Reform and Farage from the main leaders debates which will just be the 2 main party leaders.
I can't see Farage getting much traction from the 7 dwarfs debate this week, when the Tories and Labour are only sending Mordaunt and Rayner and the football is on the same evening
Tories still quite some way off a full slate of candidates?
Reform on 465, strangely DOWN 5… are they waiting for something to happen tomorrow?
I don't understand this twitter post. How can anyone know what a particular party is going to do wrt nominations? Declared candidates is totally different to whether or not a party has a candidate ready to be nominated.
Implication perhaps that some Reform defections tomorrow
Curious as to why? 41 seats seems eminently achievable for the Lib Dems given the strength of their ground game and the depressed Tory vote.
The latter is much more difficult of course but 6.6 for something that is coming up repeatedly in MRPs does not seem bad at all…
41 seats is definitely achievable. I've pinned my colours to them getting 42. But 1.6 for 41 or over looks like a value sell. Similarly, if we're around the 40 mark, I don't see a route to second place. I feel the Reform effect is exaggerated and I don't think they'll get 15%. Tory clawback of Reform vote both helps themselves and hurts the Lib Dem seat count.
But good luck with your bets, I won't be sad to be wrong in either case.
That’s very fair. I also agree on Reform. My thinking is also to sell rather than hold - but that there will come a better moment to sell in the coming days rather than right now.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
I would peg the motivation here more as being that "big thing may happen!" is news and sells papers, whereas "thing everybody expects to happen will probably happen" does not.
Here's a question. How does the theoretical (MRP or whatnot) reform vote split if there's no reform candidate in a seat.
Depends which seat it is, but usually about half of their voters wouldn't bother to vote at all IIRC. The remainder would mostly vote Tory, but not so much in seats like Barnsley.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
I would agree this is fantasy politics if it wasn't for the fact that the "moderate and sensible Netherlands", as most people always regarded it until recently, has just elected a right-wing populist government. So anything is possible.
Here's a question. How does the theoretical (MRP or whatnot) reform vote split if there's no reform candidate in a seat.
This has been discussed quite a lot, and the consensus seems to be that the biggest chunk would go to the Tories, but with a substantial percentage of not voting and some to Labour and other parties.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Given that if YouGov hadn't changed its methodology, it would already have had a tie between Con and Refuk, unless it was an outlier we could expect to (3) in the next few days just through sampling variation.
It's only YouGov finding this sort of support though, no other pollsters are anywhere close to crossover or as close as YG have been all along. Redfield are the only other one remotely close. YGs MRP is also totally at odds with their Sky and Times polls. YG could set a narrative that simply doesn't exist
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Refuk are 16/1 on the Most Seats Without Labour market. Does anyone have a view as to how much value that represents?
Tories still quite some way off a full slate of candidates?
Reform on 465, strangely DOWN 5… are they waiting for something to happen tomorrow?
I hadn't realised they were that far behind.
Nominations are normally submitted by the local conservative associations, aren't they? CCHQ must be starting to panic at this point - this could dominate tomorrow's news agenda, even if they do eventually manage to submit papers in most constituencies in time.
According to Billericay and Basildon, CCHQ has been delaying things, plus more Cons retiring. Probably saving the ultra safe seats for a last-minute parachute drop as per Holden
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
My view now is that we are increasingly looking at Reform being the Loyal Opposition on 5th July.
As you say - all highly febrile.
I have been thinking all week that something like numbertwelve’s scenario is within the realms of possibility, and am planning to hold my trading bets on REFUK until at least Saturday, after Farage’s debate.
It does, I think, kind of need the big showpiece defections tomorrow.
Here is a wildcard shout. We have been wondering for ages whether the Sun will back Labour or the Tories come polling day. What if they say “Starmer is going to win anyway, so vote Reform”. It may play well with much of their readership, and they can claim ‘the Sun wot won it’ even if Reform come 2nd.
This might be more tempting for their editors than just outright endorsing Labour just to be on the winning team, which they might have done by now if they were going to do?
Tories still quite some way off a full slate of candidates?
Reform on 465, strangely DOWN 5… are they waiting for something to happen tomorrow?
If so, they are leaving it late because tomorrow is the deadline for candidate registration.
Will the Tories be able to scramble together the last few names in time or will they leave a huge number of seats unfilled?
This is very relevant for bets like CON vs REFUK vote share or CON Total Votes…
I expect the main parties have emergency procedures in place to make sure they contest all seats in the event of a snap election, because they know how bad it would look if they failed to do so. But that doesn't mean they make the names of the candidates public until the last minute, when nominations close.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Refuk are 16/1 on the Most Seats Without Labour market. Does anyone have a view as to how much value that represents?
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
Would it not be generally considered a very underhand move for a nominated candidate for party A to defect to party B so near to close of nominations that party A didn't have time to find a replacement candidate?
It's the sort of tactic that I'd expect someone like Putin to use, preventing the electorate from making a free and fair choice. We shouldn't have that sort of shenanigans in a mature democracy.
I'd hope that the voters would severely punish any party playing that sort of game.
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey is the clear successor seat to Moray. ANME is the clear successor seat to Duguid's old Banff & Buchan. It's objectively more a move than it is staying put. From Forres (western part of Moray) to Peterhead (eastern part of ANME) it's more than a 2 hour drive.
Whichever end you are, it's a long way to the other with Scottish rural seats. Fact is Douglas Ross has represented quite big communities - such as Buckie and Keith - which are in ANME, for the last 7 years.
@leon you visited Paris at the wrong time. We cycled around the sights before setting off for Orleans and the prep for the Olympics is impressive. Only beggar we saw was being escorted away by 3 Gendarmes, all the litter has been picked up and the buildings hosed down. Every blade of grass is being cut to an inch of its life. The stands and decorations are going up. See surfer in the picture.
Tarmac needs some TLC though!
I'm sure there will be a man with a tube of filler filling it in before August. The Gendarmes are out in force. Much more than normal.
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey is the clear successor seat to Moray. ANME is the clear successor seat to Duguid's old Banff & Buchan. It's objectively more a move than it is staying put. From Forres (western part of Moray) to Peterhead (eastern part of ANME) it's more than a 2 hour drive.
A chicken run is usually defined as moving to a seat which doesn't contain any of the MP's previous seat. That isn't the case here. For example Richard Holden moving from North West Durham to Basildon & Billericay.
On this topic I've just seen that Andy Carter, who tried to find another seat, is staying in Warrington South. Not well-known but he was on the Boris "jury", sthg to do with failed search? Some of the boundary losers have been re-housed, miles from where they were. The locals had a list but seem to have preferred ex-MPs.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
My view now is that we are increasingly looking at Reform being the Loyal Opposition on 5th July.
As you say - all highly febrile.
Remember the SDP/Liberal Alliance got 26% of the vote in 1983 and just 23 seats. The same thing would probably happen to RefUK if they polled that type of percentage.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Refuk are 16/1 on the Most Seats Without Labour market. Does anyone have a view as to how much value that represents?
I got on this pre Farage announcement on Monday at 400.0 for a small stake, but have been topping up ever since as the odds have tumbled. I’m also on the Lib Dems for it which I think have a much clearer chance.
I don’t necessarily think either will do it! But I think as trading bets they represent big value, particularly as Friday’s debate will be the first time many become aware of the LDs and Reform properly.
There appears to be more trading value on the ‘most seats without Labour’ market than the REFUK seat totals, vote share or defections markets, even if a lot of these lines are all much more likely than REFUK actually coming 2nd in seats
Here's a question. How does the theoretical (MRP or whatnot) reform vote split if there's no reform candidate in a seat.
Depends which seat it is, but usually about half of their voters wouldn't bother to vote at all IIRC. The remainder would mostly vote Tory, but not so much in seats like Barnsley.
My seat is 43-29 (Con) - 18 but with no reform candidate as yet.
So if half the Reform didn't vote and say 85% of the remainder went conservative with 10% Labour and 5% Green or Lib Dem, it'd end up Lab 48, Con 40.
You can obviously tweak those numbers how you like, as my MP is quite Reform transfer friendly but I doubt it'll be enough for him.
Clearly with a Reform candidate he's completely toast.
MoonRabbit did get July right so all credit there but she basically predicted every month so I'm not sure it's a massive win.
On the other hand, to blow my own trumpet I was always confident it would be May to the middle of the summer but I went off and I should have stuck to my guns. I believe my logic for calling the election was sound, I just got the month wrong.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Given that if YouGov hadn't changed its methodology, it would already have had a tie between Con and Refuk, unless it was an outlier we could expect to (3) in the next few days just through sampling variation.
It's only YouGov finding this sort of support though, no other pollsters are anywhere close to crossover or as close as YG have been all along. Redfield are the only other one remotely close. YGs MRP is also totally at odds with their Sky and Times polls. YG could set a narrative that simply doesn't exist
But isn't that YouGov poll the only one released so far whose sampling was mostly done after the Farage announcement?
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey is the clear successor seat to Moray. ANME is the clear successor seat to Duguid's old Banff & Buchan. It's objectively more a move than it is staying put. From Forres (western part of Moray) to Peterhead (eastern part of ANME) it's more than a 2 hour drive.
Whichever end you are, it's a long way to the other with Scottish rural seats. Fact is Douglas Ross has represented quite big communities - such as Buckie and Keith - which are in ANME, for the last 7 years.
You do know that we don't disagree about that fact, yes?
The number of candidates Reform front up and there make up may end up crucial to some of the seat total betting. They are currently short 150 or so. If, say, they don't stand in 100 it makes the situation in those quite critical to the seat outcomes/majority size/Tory hold ons. Plus you'd need to take about 2% off their VI and redistribute.......
Are LD new favourites in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East?
No but @RochdalePioneers now has a chance that didn't exist 2 days ago...
We should have a PB outing. Every poster, of every political persuasion, goes up to Aberdeenshire for the day to campaign for @RochdalePioneers. Otherwise we won't have a PB MP in the next parliament and that would never do.
That said I just looked at the train fare and it's £270 return, so maybe not.
Excellent idea! Remember, though, that the last 90 minutes of the journey will be on a bus, and English and Welsh bus passes are not valid in Scotland.
The number of candidates Reform front up and there make up may end up crucial to some of the seat total betting. They are currently short 150 or so. If, say, they don't stand in 100 it makes the situation in those quite critical to the seat outcomes/majority size/Tory hold ons. Plus you'd need to take about 2% off their VI and redistribute.......
The "150 short" thing is just an estimate of course, as I said earlier. No-one knows what candidates a party has lined up for close of nominations tomorrow until it happens. The only reason we know candidates atm is because they or their party has decided to publicise it, and some may choose not to do so until nominations close for whatever reason.
Ukrainian medic & rescuer Roman "Bolhar" Yukhnevych, 35, killed in Russian double-tap missile strike on Odesa while aiding victims. Hailed as “sincere & bright man” by comrades.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
What is the 'VAT Bounce' when it is at home?
I believe MoonRabbit predicted a significant recovery in Con polling when they went big on the Lab private school VAT policy and the masses were horrified by this assault on aspiration.
That, IIRC, was her prediction. But if you don't like that prediction, she has others.
By chance when looking for something else I found this: So though she obviously changed her mind there was a time when she predicted July4th. So well done Moon. You really are the messiah!!
MoonRabbit Posts: 12,914 May 16
Anabobazina said:
» show previous quotes She is now (or was) certain it will be in July and cannot possibly be any other month. I dare say her serial certainty will continue all bloody year.
It won’t be July 4th now, it’s already too late to call it with close down next week.
I think Sunak likes being Prime Minister, and it eats him up he’s getting chucked out. Even if experts point to the optimum day in 2024 he will lose less seats and help the party by choosing that, I still think he’ll hang on till the end based on self interest. I wouldn’t even rule out January. Flag Quote · 1Like
To be fair to MR, she is open to changing her mind (see today's posts on the debate compared to those during the debate). I find her an entertaining poster.
Everyone should change their mind about how Tuesdays debate went, as new information, fact checking, more detail in the supplementary questions on the 3 debate polls has been coming in all the time since it finished, so we need to be re calculating our own thoughts all the time about what really happened. But also, crucially, what it means for what happens next, it’s certainly not over, gone and in the past.
Tuesdays debate isn’t over. Sunak could only get through it by telling brazen lies on every question asked him - Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
So Sunak and all his team now need to stick to those answers throughout the rest of the campaign, even though those answers are not surviving first contact with the electorate?
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Given that if YouGov hadn't changed its methodology, it would already have had a tie between Con and Refuk, unless it was an outlier we could expect to (3) in the next few days just through sampling variation.
It's only YouGov finding this sort of support though, no other pollsters are anywhere close to crossover or as close as YG have been all along. Redfield are the only other one remotely close. YGs MRP is also totally at odds with their Sky and Times polls. YG could set a narrative that simply doesn't exist
But isn't that YouGov poll the only one released so far whose sampling was mostly done after the Farage announcement?
Yes but they were also the only ones that had Reform that high in the first place. They have them polling 15% pre farage whereas the consensus is about 10........
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
That’s how it looks to the Daily Mail:
Douglas Ross doing a chicken run to a seat currently held by one of his own MPs, booting him out in the process, is quite the look.
COMMENT: David Duguid’s statement suggests he’s well enough to stand, but Douglas Ross insists he’s too sick. This could badly damage Ross if enough are persuaded he’s acting out of self interest. What Duguid says next, if anything, will be key.
So can we conclude that Douglas Ross finally understands his true chances of ever becoming First Minister?
He never had any chance of being First Minister. The next FM, assuming Swinney does not resign in disgrace after losing a very large number of MPs, is Sarwar. At the moment he is leader of the opposition. In the next Parliament that will probably be Kate Forbes.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
What is the 'VAT Bounce' when it is at home?
I believe MoonRabbit predicted a significant recovery in Con polling when they went big on the Lab private school VAT policy and the masses were horrified by this assault on aspiration.
That, IIRC, was her prediction. But if you don't like that prediction, she has others.
By chance when looking for something else I found this: So though she obviously changed her mind there was a time when she predicted July4th. So well done Moon. You really are the messiah!!
MoonRabbit Posts: 12,914 May 16
Anabobazina said:
» show previous quotes She is now (or was) certain it will be in July and cannot possibly be any other month. I dare say her serial certainty will continue all bloody year.
It won’t be July 4th now, it’s already too late to call it with close down next week.
I think Sunak likes being Prime Minister, and it eats him up he’s getting chucked out. Even if experts point to the optimum day in 2024 he will lose less seats and help the party by choosing that, I still think he’ll hang on till the end based on self interest. I wouldn’t even rule out January. Flag Quote · 1Like
To be fair to MR, she is open to changing her mind (see today's posts on the debate compared to those during the debate). I find her an entertaining poster.
Everyone should change their mind about how Tuesdays debate went, as new information, fact checking, more detail in the supplementary questions on the 3 debate polls has been coming in all the time since it finished, so we need to be re calculating our own thoughts all the time about what really happened. But also, crucially, what it means for what happens next, it’s certainly not over, gone and in the past.
Tuesdays debate isn’t over. Sunak could only get through it by telling brazen lies on every question asked him - Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
No they didn't the Treasury came up with some of the figure other bits came from 3 different sources - 2 of whom also said they didn't agree to their figures being used the way it was used..
The number of candidates Reform front up and there make up may end up crucial to some of the seat total betting. They are currently short 150 or so. If, say, they don't stand in 100 it makes the situation in those quite critical to the seat outcomes/majority size/Tory hold ons. Plus you'd need to take about 2% off their VI and redistribute.......
The "150 short" thing is just an estimate of course, as I said earlier. No-one knows what candidates a party has lined up for close of nominations tomorrow until it happens. The only reason we know candidates atm is because they or their party has decided to publicise it, and some may choose not to do so until nominations close for whatever reason.
Oh totally agree, just seems Reform haven't increased theirs in a fair while as if most of their agreed candidates are in place. I don't see the logic in waiting till the last second to put in nominations but perhaps they will. Edit - plus, has the Tice money dried up?
...Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action...
Or, as somebody once said (ish) "reaction is always with us"
Whilst I agree with you about the abstract strand of political thought called "Conservatism", I disagree that this is the case for the concrete manifestation called "The Conservative And Unionist Party". The current party is (crudely and exaggeratedly) a bunch of rich people devoted to strip-mining the country and its inhabitants for their resources and labour in order to repay the debt incurred, a process known as "platform decay" or "enshittification".
So your point is correct, but the current party does not reflect those values and doesn't want to. Any party that imports 1-2% of its population per year to reduce labour costs and increase growth is profit-driven, not values-driven. The future home of your Conservatism may not be the CUP, and if it is it will be a radically different one.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Refuk are 16/1 on the Most Seats Without Labour market. Does anyone have a view as to how much value that represents?
Tories under 50 seats is much better at 13/2 if you fancy Refuk doing well.
Are LD new favourites in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East?
No but @RochdalePioneers now has a chance that didn't exist 2 days ago...
We should have a PB outing. Every poster, of every political persuasion, goes up to Aberdeenshire for the day to campaign for @RochdalePioneers. Otherwise we won't have a PB MP in the next parliament and that would never do.
That said I just looked at the train fare and it's £270 return, so maybe not.
Excellent idea! Remember, though, that the last 90 minutes of the journey will be on a bus, and English and Welsh bus passes are not valid in Scotland.
We're not all retired you know
I looked at travelling from Llandudno to Elgin by train recently and it was routed Crewe - Waverley - Dundee - Elgin
It seemed quite a good service and is useful for us to know
I do wonder though…is the atmosphere really febrile?
It doesn’t feel remotely febrile to me. The poison of Brexit that upped the temperature of the last 2 elections is gone. There’s a sense of settled opinion I think. I expect turnout will be down
MoonRabbit did get July right so all credit there but she basically predicted every month so I'm not sure it's a massive win.
On the other hand, to blow my own trumpet I was always confident it would be May to the middle of the summer but I went off and I should have stuck to my guns. I believe my logic for calling the election was sound, I just got the month wrong.
Did you get the month wrong? Or did Sunak?
May 2nd created a momentum swing, wiped out councillors and mayors, confirmed the craziest of polls are correct, depressed his own party, pepped up opponents - yet just 20 days later he called the early election 🤷♀️
Whilst we all saw the balance of best time to campaign being spring rather than autumn and winter, we ruled out dates after May 2nd on basis no one would be crazy enough to create a momentum swing, wipe out councillors and mayors, confirm the craziest of polls are correct, depress his own party, pep up opponents, and then call the early one.
And that’s me being polite and ignoring your “ but she basically predicted every month so I'm not sure it's a massive win” where truth is I only gave two dates, May 2nd, July 4th.
I do wonder though…is the atmosphere really febrile?
It doesn’t feel remotely febrile to me. The poison of Brexit that upped the temperature of the last 2 elections is gone. There’s a sense of settled opinion I think. I expect turnout will be disn
It's not at all febrile. It's disillusioned and fed up. Turnout will get 2001ish imo
Ukrainian medic & rescuer Roman "Bolhar" Yukhnevych, 35, killed in Russian double-tap missile strike on Odesa while aiding victims. Hailed as “sincere & bright man” by comrades.
The attacks of Odesa are more than daily now. Hard to count. Putin is trying to take the city out altogether, it feels - ie make it uninhabitable for civilians due to lack of power/comms and unusable as a port
Pretty sure I was woken by one attack on the port last night
"Long power cuts today - especially in #Odesa where internet also failed for many.
Finally found some photos of the explosion heard this morning in the city. It was indeed a downed rocket, fragments of which ended up in someone's garden. You see how easily shrapnel can kill."
I'm out today, but on the slightly rabbithole subject of highly appropriate what3words locations, here's another one from Chesterfield. This is a from a system of separated surfaced footpaths and cycle tracks built around Junction 29 on the M1 in ~1968, since then basically forgotten about like everything else.
This piccie is of difficult access to a public footpath in March (it look sbetter in summer, I think), and is at https://what3words.com/scarred.frantic.shudders one assumes for wheelchair users. It is where the new stuff (in 1968) was linked in with Public Rights of Way severed by the motorway; now the LHA or DFT would probably just not bother with such work and it would be uncontrolled crossings across slip roads, or nothing at all. There's another one close by at https://what3words.com/tell.scouting.scooters, appropriate for mobility scooter users and perhaps a better link on a cut-off road I have not yet explored.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
They hate Mr Sunak almost as much as most Con members do
It's more than that though. Commentators have been salivating at the prospect of crossover with Reform for weeks already, they cannot disguise their eagerness as just being a prediction.
They don't just want to punish the party due to Sunak and have it be rebuilt more right wing (ignoring he is pretty right wing anyway) - they want the party eclipsed, not reformulated (pun intended).
...Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action...
Or, as somebody once said (ish) "reaction is always with us"
Whilst I agree with you about the abstract strand of political thought called "Conservatism", I disagree that this is the case for the concrete manifestation called "The Conservative And Unionist Party". The current party is (crudely and exaggeratedly) a bunch of rich people devoted to strip-mining the country and its inhabitants for their resources and labour in order to repay the debt incurred, a process known as "platform decay" or "enshittification".
So your point is correct, but the current party does not reflect those values and doesn't want to. Any party that imports 1-2% of its population per year to reduce labour costs and increase growth is profit-driven, not values-driven. The future home of your Conservatism may not be the CUP, and if it is it will be a radically different one.
The people running the Tories have always been a lot more predisposed to neo-liberalism than everyone else in the party. But because of the deferential nature of provincial Tories, they've always been allowed to get away with it. The attitude has been "those people in London must know what they're doing and talking about, so we'd better go along with it".
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
Would it not be generally considered a very underhand move for a nominated candidate for party A to defect to party B so near to close of nominations that party A didn't have time to find a replacement candidate?
It's the sort of tactic that I'd expect someone like Putin to use, preventing the electorate from making a free and fair choice. We shouldn't have that sort of shenanigans in a mature democracy.
I'd hope that the voters would severely punish any party playing that sort of game.
I suspect they'd be able to get away with it in the context of a sudden Refuk surge / Faragasm.
Tory complaints would be based on technicalities around process and precedent that the public won't know anything about. Painting Farage as being sneaky/devious would risk him being seen as cunning if public opinion is already shifting in his direction.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
My view now is that we are increasingly looking at Reform being the Loyal Opposition on 5th July.
As you say - all highly febrile.
No, I think Reform only have a 50/50 chance of winning a single seat.
Remember Farage is a serial failure at FPTP, and while has a fervent following, he has a low ceiling of support, even amongst Tories, and is loathed by LLG. Even at the height of UKIP fever they only won a single seat once at FPTP, and only got above 20% in a handful of others.
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
I do wonder though…is the atmosphere really febrile?
It doesn’t feel remotely febrile to me. The poison of Brexit that upped the temperature of the last 2 elections is gone. There’s a sense of settled opinion I think. I expect turnout will be disn
It's not at all febrile. It's disillusioned and fed up. Turnout will get 2001ish imo
Agreed. A record low is possible, it's not that big a drop to get there.
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
That’s how it looks to the Daily Mail:
Douglas Ross doing a chicken run to a seat currently held by one of his own MPs, booting him out in the process, is quite the look.
COMMENT: David Duguid’s statement suggests he’s well enough to stand, but Douglas Ross insists he’s too sick. This could badly damage Ross if enough are persuaded he’s acting out of self interest. What Duguid says next, if anything, will be key.
At the PO Inquiry, Alice Perkins just accused Paula Vennells of lying.
Former Post office Chair Alice Perkins is wife of Jack Straw and Labour, former Post Office CEO Paula Vennells was given a CBE by Tory PM Theresa May
Don't think that's relevant - the entire Post Office board is now a sack of cats all trying to pin the blame on anyone who isn't themselves..
It is relevant in the sense that Labour and the Tories, even Davey and the LDs all cannot escape blame for connections to the PO scandal
Everyone is at fault in the PO scandal...
Enough blame to go round a lot of people….
It has puzzled me for a long time how the organisation could be so incompetent and dysfunctional at every level. Perkins' evidence makes it very clear that the Board was at the heart of the problem.
Many organisations exist like this - as long as management aren’t forced to know what they don’t want to know…
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
My view now is that we are increasingly looking at Reform being the Loyal Opposition on 5th July.
As you say - all highly febrile.
No, I think Reform only have a 50/50 chance of winning a single seat.
Remember Farage is a serial failure at FPTP, and while has a fervent following, he has a low ceiling of support, even amongst Tories, and is loathed by LLG. Even at the height of UKIP fever they only won a single seat once at FPTP, and only got above 20% in a handful of others.
I very much get where you’re coming from but you can get 5.1 on REFUK winning 0 seats - if you think it’s a 50/50 shot then deffo lump on
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Given that if YouGov hadn't changed its methodology, it would already have had a tie between Con and Refuk, unless it was an outlier we could expect to (3) in the next few days just through sampling variation.
It's only YouGov finding this sort of support though, no other pollsters are anywhere close to crossover or as close as YG have been all along. Redfield are the only other one remotely close. YGs MRP is also totally at odds with their Sky and Times polls. YG could set a narrative that simply doesn't exist
But isn't that YouGov poll the only one released so far whose sampling was mostly done after the Farage announcement?
Yes but they were also the only ones that had Reform that high in the first place. They have them polling 15% pre farage whereas the consensus is about 10........
I don't think there was really much of a consensus. The range of recent non-YouGov ratings is 9-14%.
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
"After riding the Boris bounce to his Warrington South seat in 2019, Andy Carter’s panicked chicken run has finally ended up in farcical failure. Carter, one quarter of the Kangaroo Court’s “Tory Majority“, is currently sat on a doomed 3% majority. Good luck fighting that one…
The Boris backstabber tried to chicken run and get the selection for quite a few seats, including Andrew Bridgen’s North West Leicestershire as well as Chester South. He now announces his sullen return"
Ukrainian medic & rescuer Roman "Bolhar" Yukhnevych, 35, killed in Russian double-tap missile strike on Odesa while aiding victims. Hailed as “sincere & bright man” by comrades.
The attacks of Odesa are more than daily now. Hard to count. Putin is trying to take the city out altogether, it feels - ie make it uninhabitable for civilians due to lack of power/comms and unusable as a port
Pretty sure I was woken by one attack on the port last night
"Long power cuts today - especially in #Odesa where internet also failed for many.
Finally found some photos of the explosion heard this morning in the city. It was indeed a downed rocket, fragments of which ended up in someone's garden. You see how easily shrapnel can kill."
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
I just went for a short walk and a thought occured to me...... Did a young linesman from Morayshire get visited by three witches yesterday? Hail wee Dougie, leader of the Scons Hall wee Dougie MP for Aberdeenshire and Moray East Hail wee Dougie thou shalt be LOTO hereafter......
Does he think given the SNP woes he's gaining seats and can present himself as the face of 'successful Unionism and Conservatism'? Set against carnage in the rest of the UK. Is that what this is all about?
I can't even find odds.......
Arise Sir Alec Dougie Ross
Out, damned Ross; out!
Something wicked this way comes (to your constituency)
Ross is one of the minor characters in Macbeth. Interestingly, in Polanski's film (where he's played by John Stride) he's depicted as a serial turncoat and the worst villain of them all.
“Although critics of Trump’s Manhattan prosecution have said this was a novel application of the relevant statutes, other commentators have observed that ‘the creation of phony documentation to cover up campaign finance violations has been repeatedly prosecuted in New York.’ If there was anything novel about the situation, it was the crime, not the prosecution.” https://nytimes.com/2024/06/05/opinion/trump-verdict-felon-campaign.html
MoonRabbit did get July right so all credit there but she basically predicted every month so I'm not sure it's a massive win.
On the other hand, to blow my own trumpet I was always confident it would be May to the middle of the summer but I went off and I should have stuck to my guns. I believe my logic for calling the election was sound, I just got the month wrong.
Moonrabbit predicting the election date is like some financial pundits predicting recessions. The old saying goes, they've predicted twenty of the last two recessions.
He's having an excellent campaign. Even the speeding points (& which Lib Dem would be complete without those) got him a bit more coverage in the news the other day.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
What is the 'VAT Bounce' when it is at home?
I believe MoonRabbit predicted a significant recovery in Con polling when they went big on the Lab private school VAT policy and the masses were horrified by this assault on aspiration.
That, IIRC, was her prediction. But if you don't like that prediction, she has others.
By chance when looking for something else I found this: So though she obviously changed her mind there was a time when she predicted July4th. So well done Moon. You really are the messiah!!
MoonRabbit Posts: 12,914 May 16
Anabobazina said:
» show previous quotes She is now (or was) certain it will be in July and cannot possibly be any other month. I dare say her serial certainty will continue all bloody year.
It won’t be July 4th now, it’s already too late to call it with close down next week.
I think Sunak likes being Prime Minister, and it eats him up he’s getting chucked out. Even if experts point to the optimum day in 2024 he will lose less seats and help the party by choosing that, I still think he’ll hang on till the end based on self interest. I wouldn’t even rule out January. Flag Quote · 1Like
To be fair to MR, she is open to changing her mind (see today's posts on the debate compared to those during the debate). I find her an entertaining poster.
Everyone should change their mind about how Tuesdays debate went, as new information, fact checking, more detail in the supplementary questions on the 3 debate polls has been coming in all the time since it finished, so we need to be re calculating our own thoughts all the time about what really happened. But also, crucially, what it means for what happens next, it’s certainly not over, gone and in the past.
Tuesdays debate isn’t over. Sunak could only get through it by telling brazen lies on every question asked him - Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
No they didn't the Treasury came up with some of the figure other bits came from 3 different sources - 2 of whom also said they didn't agree to their figures being used the way it was used..
I didn't get much of a chance to look at the news yesterday, but is it true that the Tories have been trying to blame Starmer for entrapment, because he didn't immediately counter Rishi's lies?
...Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action...
Or, as somebody once said (ish) "reaction is always with us"
Whilst I agree with you about the abstract strand of political thought called "Conservatism", I disagree that this is the case for the concrete manifestation called "The Conservative And Unionist Party". The current party is (crudely and exaggeratedly) a bunch of rich people devoted to strip-mining the country and its inhabitants for their resources and labour in order to repay the debt incurred, a process known as "platform decay" or "enshittification".
So your point is correct, but the current party does not reflect those values and doesn't want to. Any party that imports 1-2% of its population per year to reduce labour costs and increase growth is profit-driven, not values-driven. The future home of your Conservatism may not be the CUP, and if it is it will be a radically different one.
“So your point is correct, but the current party does not reflect those values”
And your point is absolutely spot on too.
We have a Conservative Party in the UK that used to be very good at this, and often rewarded with power, but it has lost its way. Distracted by other things, it’s stopped focussing on its main reason to be - to conserve what is of value and important. The party has become an echo chamber for right wing capitalist think tanks and NeoCon groups, its leaders forgetting when they get excited by idea’s, they will ultimately have to defend them on the floor of parliament and at the ballot box.
By all means hate it and enjoy voting it out. But don’t confuse what’s about to be thrashed as Conservatism at its best.
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
How do we know David Duguid isn't standing down for health reasons?
He said he wanted to fight the seat . The Tories basically said they replaced him for his own good .
That may well be largely true, however if they had concerns over his fitness to campaign they should have made that determination as soon as the election was called not 48 hours before close of nominations. They also shouldn’t be shoehorning the party leader in as candidate because it stinks, it stinks so much you could smell it from the Scilly Isles.
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
Beer absolutely nailed Perkins. If she is not arraigned for perverting the course of justice it can only be because of a behind-the-scenes stitch up.
People like that rarely are, though. Chris Huhne being the exception due to the media circus probably. It is usually only the little people who are held to account.
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
So can we conclude that Douglas Ross finally understands his true chances of ever becoming First Minister?
He never had any chance of being First Minister. The next FM, assuming Swinney does not resign in disgrace after losing a very large number of MPs, is Sarwar. At the moment he is leader of the opposition. In the next Parliament that will probably be Kate Forbes.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
I’m sure I’ve frequently seen the hashtags #ruth4FM, #ross4FM and most tittersome, #jackson4FM.
Beer absolutely nailed Perkins. If she is not arraigned for perverting the course of justice it can only be because of a behind-the-scenes stitch up.
I have/had absolutely no ambition or aptitude for climbing the greasy pole but when the veil is drawn back on these people you do start to wonder how just about anyone with a bit of curiosity could have done a worse job.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
My view now is that we are increasingly looking at Reform being the Loyal Opposition on 5th July.
As you say - all highly febrile.
No, I think Reform only have a 50/50 chance of winning a single seat.
Remember Farage is a serial failure at FPTP, and while has a fervent following, he has a low ceiling of support, even amongst Tories, and is loathed by LLG. Even at the height of UKIP fever they only won a single seat once at FPTP, and only got above 20% in a handful of others.
I very much get where you’re coming from but you can get 5.1 on REFUK winning 0 seats - if you think it’s a 50/50 shot then deffo lump on
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey is the clear successor seat to Moray. ANME is the clear successor seat to Duguid's old Banff & Buchan. It's objectively more a move than it is staying put. From Forres (western part of Moray) to Peterhead (eastern part of ANME) it's more than a 2 hour drive.
A chicken run is usually defined as moving to a seat which doesn't contain any of the MP's previous seat. That isn't the case here. For example Richard Holden moving from North West Durham to Basildon & Billericay.
OK it's not a 100% chicken run, but using a combination of your position in the party to push out the existing candidate because they are ill doesn't make a good look..
I don’t recall an election when so many seats, some of them winnable, still had local associations of potentially winning parties, looking for candidates at this stage. Does underline the fact that Sunak made the decision to cut and run alone. What does he know?
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Ross is *already* both an MSP and Scottish Tory leader. He had announced he was quitting Westminster to focus on Holyrood. And refereeing. But obviously has changed his mind...
The way the two main parties have treated candidate selection in this election is just awful. Completely treating local parties and local democracy as an inconvenience. Local members must do what they are instructed to.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
What is the 'VAT Bounce' when it is at home?
I believe MoonRabbit predicted a significant recovery in Con polling when they went big on the Lab private school VAT policy and the masses were horrified by this assault on aspiration.
That, IIRC, was her prediction. But if you don't like that prediction, she has others.
By chance when looking for something else I found this: So though she obviously changed her mind there was a time when she predicted July4th. So well done Moon. You really are the messiah!!
MoonRabbit Posts: 12,914 May 16
Anabobazina said:
» show previous quotes She is now (or was) certain it will be in July and cannot possibly be any other month. I dare say her serial certainty will continue all bloody year.
It won’t be July 4th now, it’s already too late to call it with close down next week.
I think Sunak likes being Prime Minister, and it eats him up he’s getting chucked out. Even if experts point to the optimum day in 2024 he will lose less seats and help the party by choosing that, I still think he’ll hang on till the end based on self interest. I wouldn’t even rule out January. Flag Quote · 1Like
To be fair to MR, she is open to changing her mind (see today's posts on the debate compared to those during the debate). I find her an entertaining poster.
Agreed. And she is always honest about the fact that she has changed her mind. So I say fair play to her.
Comments
Nominations are normally submitted by the local conservative associations, aren't they? CCHQ must be starting to panic at this point - this could dominate tomorrow's news agenda, even if they do eventually manage to submit papers in most constituencies in time.
Similarly, if we're around the 40 mark, I don't see a route to second place. I feel the Reform effect is exaggerated and I don't think they'll get 15%. Tory clawback of Reform vote both helps themselves and hurts the Lib Dem seat count.
But good luck with your bets, I won't be sad to be wrong in either case.
Except a 100-150 is what it looks like. 👍🏻
You have given a gloomy view of Conservative recovery. But it only took 13 years to be back in government after 1997. And the bad 1906 result, to the 1924 landslide isn’t far behind.
Yet again you are ignoring the number of voters who want to vote for centre right are nearly always much more than who wants to vote centre left, and even looking at the current polls this is obvious, despite such a mess this government has been. So I ask you to consider realignment of the centre right could happen a lot quicker than you might think.
“try to work out which of the undeserving is nearest your version of "Conservatism" (whatever that is).”
That’s easy to answer. I know what Conservatism is 🙂
Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action. This is why it’s returning to UK government a lot sooner than you currently imagine.
It’s interesting you outed yourself today as a synethete. You get all this psephology guidance to share with us, by sniffing the polls.
It's easy to characterise it as a panic move because the timing is very weird. They've known about the boundary changes for a long time. I don't know for sure whether panic is a motivation, it just has that look about it.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
As you say - all highly febrile.
I can't see Farage getting much traction from the 7 dwarfs debate this week, when the Tories and Labour are only sending Mordaunt and Rayner and the football is on the same evening
YG could set a narrative that simply doesn't exist
It does, I think, kind of need the big showpiece defections tomorrow.
Here is a wildcard shout. We have been wondering for ages whether the Sun will back Labour or the Tories come polling day. What if they say “Starmer is going to win anyway, so vote Reform”. It may play well with much of their readership, and they can claim ‘the Sun wot won it’ even if Reform come 2nd.
This might be more tempting for their editors than just outright endorsing Labour just to be on the winning team, which they might have done by now if they were going to do?
I may well take a nibble.
It's the sort of tactic that I'd expect someone like Putin to use, preventing the electorate from making a free and fair choice. We shouldn't have that sort of shenanigans in a mature democracy.
I'd hope that the voters would severely punish any party playing that sort of game.
Some of the boundary losers have been re-housed, miles from where they were. The locals had a list but seem to have preferred ex-MPs.
I don’t necessarily think either will do it! But I think as trading bets they represent big value, particularly as Friday’s debate will be the first time many become aware of the LDs and Reform properly.
There appears to be more trading value on the ‘most seats without Labour’ market than the REFUK seat totals, vote share or defections markets, even if a lot of these lines are all much more likely than REFUK actually coming 2nd in seats
But YMMV and I’m not an expert like some here!
So if half the Reform didn't vote and say 85% of the remainder went conservative with 10% Labour and 5% Green or Lib Dem, it'd end up Lab 48, Con 40.
You can obviously tweak those numbers how you like, as my MP is quite Reform transfer friendly but I doubt it'll be enough for him.
Clearly with a Reform candidate he's completely toast.
On the other hand, to blow my own trumpet I was always confident it would be May to the middle of the summer but I went off and I should have stuck to my guns. I believe my logic for calling the election was sound, I just got the month wrong.
Ukrainian medic & rescuer Roman "Bolhar" Yukhnevych, 35, killed in Russian double-tap missile strike on Odesa while aiding victims.
Hailed as “sincere & bright man” by comrades.
Russia’s attack killed 4, including 4yo child, injured 14.
https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1798653054482280856
Tuesdays debate isn’t over. Sunak could only get through it by telling brazen lies on every question asked him - Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
So Sunak and all his team now need to stick to those answers throughout the rest of the campaign, even though those answers are not surviving first contact with the electorate?
Douglas Ross doing a chicken run to a seat currently held by one of his own MPs, booting him out in the process, is quite the look.
https://x.com/DavidTWilcock/status/1798626593826648370
Doesn’t look good to The Sun either.
COMMENT: David Duguid’s statement suggests he’s well enough to stand, but Douglas Ross insists he’s too sick. This could badly damage Ross if enough are persuaded he’s acting out of self interest. What Duguid says next, if anything, will be key.
https://x.com/ChrisMusson/status/1798657808486776866
And after he said he’d stand down:
Douglas Ross (CON)
The leader of the Scottish Conservatives has said he will not stand again at Westminster in order to focus on Holyrood and being an MSP.
He has served as MP for Moray since 2017.
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/the-mps-who-have-announced-they-are-standing-down-at-the-next-general-election-13102764
He’s an unprincipled opportunistic little shit.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
Edit - plus, has the Tice money dried up?
Though I suppose you got to be fairly nuts to aspire to being his VP.
Trump has requested financial and other documents from 8 potential VP picks as he formalizes his vetting. The contenders, in no particular order:
—J.D. Vance
—Doug Burgum
—Marco Rubio
—Tim Scott
—Ben Carson
—Elise Stefanik
—Byron Donalds
—Tom Cotton
https://x.com/axios/status/1798666297401561190
Curiously, the canicide doesn't appear.
Whilst I agree with you about the abstract strand of political thought called "Conservatism", I disagree that this is the case for the concrete manifestation called "The Conservative And Unionist Party". The current party is (crudely and exaggeratedly) a bunch of rich people devoted to strip-mining the country and its inhabitants for their resources and labour in order to repay the debt incurred, a process known as "platform decay" or "enshittification".
So your point is correct, but the current party does not reflect those values and doesn't want to. Any party that imports 1-2% of its population per year to reduce labour costs and increase growth is profit-driven, not values-driven. The future home of your Conservatism may not be the CUP, and if it is it will be a radically different one.
It seemed quite a good service and is useful for us to know
It doesn’t feel remotely febrile to me. The poison of Brexit that upped the temperature of the last 2 elections is gone. There’s a sense of settled opinion I think. I expect turnout will be down
May 2nd created a momentum swing, wiped out councillors and mayors, confirmed the craziest of polls are correct, depressed his own party, pepped up opponents - yet just 20 days later he called the early election 🤷♀️
Whilst we all saw the balance of best time to campaign being spring rather than autumn and winter, we ruled out dates after May 2nd on basis no one would be crazy enough to create a momentum swing, wipe out councillors and mayors, confirm the craziest of polls are correct, depress his own party, pep up opponents, and then call the early one.
And that’s me being polite and ignoring your “ but she basically predicted every month so I'm not sure it's a massive win” where truth is I only gave two dates, May 2nd, July 4th.
Tory election candidate Sam Trask has resigned after his "wholly inappropriate" sexual comments about women were exposed
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1798674984220725402
Pretty sure I was woken by one attack on the port last night
"Long power cuts today - especially in #Odesa where internet also failed for many.
Finally found some photos of the explosion heard this morning in the city. It was indeed a downed rocket, fragments of which ended up in someone's garden. You see how easily shrapnel can kill."
https://x.com/TWMCLtd/status/1798033375506362655
I'm out today, but on the slightly rabbithole subject of highly appropriate what3words locations, here's another one from Chesterfield. This is a from a system of separated surfaced footpaths and cycle tracks built around Junction 29 on the M1 in ~1968, since then basically forgotten about like everything else.
This piccie is of difficult access to a public footpath in March (it look sbetter in summer, I think), and is at https://what3words.com/scarred.frantic.shudders one assumes for wheelchair users. It is where the new stuff (in 1968) was linked in with Public Rights of Way severed by the motorway; now the LHA or DFT would probably just not bother with such work and it would be uncontrolled crossings across slip roads, or nothing at all.
There's another one close by at https://what3words.com/tell.scouting.scooters, appropriate for mobility scooter users and perhaps a better link on a cut-off road I have not yet explored.
They don't just want to punish the party due to Sunak and have it be rebuilt more right wing (ignoring he is pretty right wing anyway) - they want the party eclipsed, not reformulated (pun intended).
Tory complaints would be based on technicalities around process and precedent that the public won't know anything about. Painting Farage as being sneaky/devious would risk him being seen as cunning if public opinion is already shifting in his direction.
Remember Farage is a serial failure at FPTP, and while has a fervent following, he has a low ceiling of support, even amongst Tories, and is loathed by LLG. Even at the height of UKIP fever they only won a single seat once at FPTP, and only got above 20% in a handful of others.
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
https://x.com/HolyroodDaily/status/1798676451060851034
4 million views.
https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1798414489190334975
https://what3words.com/reporters.battling.moves
The Boris backstabber tried to chicken run and get the selection for quite a few seats, including Andrew Bridgen’s North West Leicestershire as well as Chester South. He now announces his sullen return"
https://order-order.com/2024/06/06/boris-backstabber-slinks-back-to-doomed-seat-after-failed-chicken-run/
Russia has now targeted several Ukrainian equivalents of B&Q.
https://nytimes.com/2024/06/05/opinion/trump-verdict-felon-campaign.html
Applies here too.
And your point is absolutely spot on too.
We have a Conservative Party in the UK that used to be very good at this, and often rewarded with power, but it has lost its way. Distracted by other things, it’s stopped focussing on its main reason to be - to conserve what is of value and important. The party has become an echo chamber for right wing capitalist think tanks and NeoCon groups, its leaders forgetting when they get excited by idea’s, they will ultimately have to defend them on the floor of parliament and at the ballot box.
By all means hate it and enjoy voting it out. But don’t confuse what’s about to be thrashed as Conservatism at its best.
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry.
Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest.
Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon.
Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle.
Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1797967463038255270
Douglas Ross denied the Conservatives had 'sacked a man on his sickbed' after he replaced David Duguid as a General Election candidate.
Live updates: https://i.stv.tv/4e2Jsl8
https://x.com/STVNews/status/1798678730610508244
If I were in Clacton I would vote Tory!
Does underline the fact that Sunak made the decision to cut and run alone. What does he know?
Rory is asking some very sensible questions.