Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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My photo for the day. And I have diligently shrunk it. Seems to enlarge when opened. PB Exclusive - not yet tweeted.
Why don't they use the cycle path?
That space ship carbuncle is Crosby Leisure Centre.
The Cycle Paths of Sefton.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Leopold+Rd,+Waterloo,+Liverpool/@53.4781043,-3.0427571,16a,35y,329.2h,78.51t/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x487b2458b136c4ab:0xc1636be5179c0f51!8m2!3d53.4806822!4d-3.0398545!16s/g/1tlwf5hl?entry=ttu
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I don't bet on football but this probably works. I made mad bank laying Valentino Rossi for years for the same reason.Sandpit said:
Didn’t someone do an analysis at one of the last tournaments, that said the value is always laying England to win overall with UK bookies or exchanges, in advance of the tournament, because there’s so much money backing it from people who wish it were to happen? If they get to the final, you can almost certainly lay off the bet.Ghedebrav said:Betting post, and re the footy - England as ever are horrible value (3/1 favourites, ha); for me Germany are probably slightly underpriced, given they will have a decent team and are on home turf.
Hungary might be a good bet to get to the semis.2 -
Moldova is fucking brilliant. I love it0
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Very good of him, perhaps we should offer him a job.Sandpit said:Five Bulgarians jailed for “over £50m” of UK benefit fraud. That no-one at DWP noticed, despite names, addresses, and phone numbers, being repeatedly recycled.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/benefits-fraud-biggest-ever-britain-uk-jailed/
“Judge Aaronberg said the gang had been able to operate for so long because of “woefully inadequate checking systems” at the Department for Work and Pensions, which failed to identify “repeated use of the same names, addresses and telephone numbers”.
The fraud was only uncovered after a lone policeman in Sliven, Bulgaria, tipped off British authorities when he noticed that his city was suddenly awash with cash and criminals were “living like barons”.”1 -
In which case Rishi should be even more thankful Farage hasn't come back as by the end of the Canadian campaign Reform had overtaken the Tories to come second to the Liberals on voteshare and 3rd on seats behind the Liberals and BQ.Andy_Cooke said:
Um, on that graph, we're at the point in the campaign just after the point where the Progressive Conservatives had briefly overtaken the Liberals.HYUFD said:
The PCs got a brief bounce in June 1993 when Kim Campbell replaced Mulroney as their PM and leader but they then collapsed again.Andy_Cooke said:Things can always get worse, so Sunak should feel somewhat cheered if they don't.
I was a bit surprised to see how the famous 1993 Canadian Federal Election actually unfolded, opinion polling-wise. I'd been under the impression the Prog Cons had been doomed all along, but the polling looked like the below:
(All done in one image due to the rules of the site).
First image was the story of the Parliament up until about the point the campaign was called. Up until then, it looked rather like "Classic swingback, albeit from a really deep and sustained low point."
And during the campaign, the Conservatives initially caught up and even led a few polls (something we don't expect here).
Then they went full Truss and into freefall, as shown in the complete image including the campaign period.
Obviously I don't expect that here (there are many things different), but it does illustrate how much worse things could get during a campaign period.
In any case we are only a month from the election so even on that chart Reform would need to be level with or have overtaken the Tories by now for second on the same timeframe
The election was on October 25th 1993. 35 days prior was September 20th 1993.
There had been four polls since the election was called on September 8th 1993:
9/9/93: Lib 37, Con 35, Reform 10, NDP 8
9/9/93: Lib 33, Con 34, Reform 11, NDP 10
14/9/93: Lib 33, Con 36, Reform 11, NDP 8
16/9/93: Lib 35, Con 35, Reform 11, NDP 6
That realigned the right in Canada with Reform's successor the Canadian Alliance effectively taking over the remaining Tories in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada which Polievre now leads. Even today's Canadian Conservatives are more populist right than the old centre right PCs were, if that is the road we went down in a decade or two's time the main right of centre party in the UK would look a lot more like Farage than Sunak0 -
Not much wrong with Sunak that a failure or two earlier in his life wouldn't have solved.TheScreamingEagles said:
As I note in the header During PMQs Sunak often ends up displaying the anguish of a man with a wasp trapped under his foreskinPro_Rata said:
It is the last sentence, "it's probably at that time that you got to know me as chancellor" that is particularly bad here. To me, he is opening and closing his mouth and wearing a slightly pained and embarrassed expression. I wouldn't categorise it as smiling.bondegezou said:
I think the tweet's summary exaggerates how bad Sunak's response is... but it wasn't good. He's not a natural at this!Scott_xP said:
Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.bondegezou said:
He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.Casino_Royale said:
Was Partygate Sunak's fault?Scott_xP said:@LizzyBuchan
Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.
"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"
He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.
https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625
Or "placating unhappy customer" training.
But it's too late for him now.2 -
"You lost a loved one, and couldn't be there for them, but more importantly I gave everyone half price meals out and you all got to see me on TV."tlg86 said:I think Sunak's answer was fine. I suspect that sort of thing might get him some sympathy at the debate.
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Does he get 10% of any monies recovered?Sandpit said:Five Bulgarians jailed for “over £50m” of UK benefit fraud. That no-one at DWP noticed, despite names, addresses, and phone numbers, being repeatedly recycled.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/benefits-fraud-biggest-ever-britain-uk-jailed/
“Judge Aaronberg said the gang had been able to operate for so long because of “woefully inadequate checking systems” at the Department for Work and Pensions, which failed to identify “repeated use of the same names, addresses and telephone numbers”.
The fraud was only uncovered after a lone policeman in Sliven, Bulgaria, tipped off British authorities when he noticed that his city was suddenly awash with cash and criminals were “living like barons”.”0 -
That would probably lead to a discussion of inheritance tax.dixiedean said:boulay said:…
Not as bad as “I think you’ll find that your mum would have died alone whether I was at a party or not during Covid.”Pro_Rata said:
I think as a response to the man's Mum's death that would have been considerably worse.Sean_F said:
"Shit happens" is usually the best response.Casino_Royale said:
Was Partygate Sunak's fault?Scott_xP said:@LizzyBuchan
Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.
"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"
Factually correct but not overly diplomatic.
"At least you got to inherit" may have been worse.boulay said:…
Not as bad as “I think you’ll find that your mum would have died alone whether I was at a party or not during Covid.”Pro_Rata said:
I think as a response to the man's Mum's death that would have been considerably worse.Sean_F said:
"Shit happens" is usually the best response.Casino_Royale said:
Was Partygate Sunak's fault?Scott_xP said:@LizzyBuchan
Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.
"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"
Factually correct but not overly diplomatic.0 -
Richi has guaranteed himself airtime on HIGNFY0
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Of course it does.bondegezou said:
I think the tweet's summary exaggerates how bad Sunak's response is... but it wasn't good. He's not a natural at this!Scott_xP said:
Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.bondegezou said:
He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.Casino_Royale said:
Was Partygate Sunak's fault?Scott_xP said:@LizzyBuchan
Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.
"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"
He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.
https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625
You're probably not old enough to remember Callaghan's "Crisis, what crisis ?" - which he didn't actually say.
It was repeated so often that I have a false memory of his saying it live to the TV cameras.
Media changes ... and stays the same.3 -
They could yeah, and there’s never huge value to be found in a big tournament.Farooq said:
They're in a very tricky group. Theoretically they're second best, but them and Switzerland are pretty tightly matched and even Scotland aren't a million miles behind. They could easily draw twice and lose once and find themselves going home after three games.Ghedebrav said:Betting post, and re the footy - England as ever are horrible value (3/1 favourites, ha); for me Germany are probably slightly underpriced, given they will have a decent team and are on home turf.
Hungary might be a good bet to get to the semis.
It is reasonably open though - as @boulay says Portugal have a good tournament record; Italy and Spain are there and someone will have to knock them out.
Tbh I’m not as well up on top-level footy as I used to be, but I look at that England squad’s defence and don’t see a back line that will win a cup. Would happily be wrong though!0 -
The problem with Sunak is he can’t actually do the emotional intelligence stuff. He’s been taught to talk like a politician, so he delivers his lines well, but he doesn’t go off piste, and he doesn’t connect with the questioner.
It’s all about delivering the question in the way that gets the political message over.
Too many politicians talk this way now because they’re coached to. The ones that are truly impressive manage to know when to switch it off and to, you know, connect.
Sunak’s response to that question was fine up to and including the bit where he said sorry. The next, emotionally intelligent thing to say would have been, “there’s nothing I can say that will make that better. I hope from some of the things I’ve said today, that I can demonstrate how I can be worthy of your trust.” End of conversation. Unfortunately we got the pre-prepared narrative about being SuperChancellor.
Reasons why Rishi Sunak is sh*t at politics #482.4 -
Met Commissioner ?kle4 said:
Very good of him, perhaps we should offer him a job.Sandpit said:Five Bulgarians jailed for “over £50m” of UK benefit fraud. That no-one at DWP noticed, despite names, addresses, and phone numbers, being repeatedly recycled.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/benefits-fraud-biggest-ever-britain-uk-jailed/
“Judge Aaronberg said the gang had been able to operate for so long because of “woefully inadequate checking systems” at the Department for Work and Pensions, which failed to identify “repeated use of the same names, addresses and telephone numbers”.
The fraud was only uncovered after a lone policeman in Sliven, Bulgaria, tipped off British authorities when he noticed that his city was suddenly awash with cash and criminals were “living like barons”.”0 -
One of those unfortunate moments you are screwed whatever you do.
At least he didn't say 'but it was a LOVELY cake'
It won't harm him any more than the fine already has0 -
How many photos are we allowed? Don’t want to get banned but I am standing on a terrace overlooking the Dniester staring at the last living slice of the USSR0
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Been out all day (on a Roman trip.... in the UK):Scott_xP said:@sharonodea
Good grief. "Sorry about your mum but you got to learn what a brilliant chancellor I was, so swings and roundabouts I guess".
Is the text within quotes an actual quote of what he said, or is that someone's summation of it?0 -
Not quite as bad as Alan B'Stard's attitude to his constituents letters.Scott_xP said:That was the genuine Richi on display.
Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.
'I can't feed my family.' 'Get a well paid job then!'
'I am worried about the education of my children.' 'Nothing £10,000 a term can't solve!'
'I am stuck on a waiting list at the local hospital.' 'Well go private!'2 -
One photo per calendar day.Leon said:How many photos are we allowed? Don’t want to get banned but I am standing on a terrace overlooking the Dniester staring at the last living slice of the USSR
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That is not a direct quoteJosiasJessop said:
Been out all day (on a Roman trip.... in the UK):Scott_xP said:@sharonodea
Good grief. "Sorry about your mum but you got to learn what a brilliant chancellor I was, so swings and roundabouts I guess".
Is the text within quotes an actual quote of what he said, or is that someone's summation of it?
See for yourself
https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/17961963525121886250 -
Rather tight trousers. Or possibly it's just the angle?Leon said:Are we allowed to post any photos at all? I forget
Anyway I’m in the best mood in history. Sergiu Hanganu is the most famous artisanal fruit liqueur maker in eastern Moldova and we have just tried 15 examples of his exceptional produce. In a cave cellar basically from Harry Potter. By the end I was speaking Moldovan
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It presents the general unfortunate tone and content in a précis worded with moderate humorous exaggeration.JosiasJessop said:
Been out all day (on a Roman trip.... in the UK):Scott_xP said:@sharonodea
Good grief. "Sorry about your mum but you got to learn what a brilliant chancellor I was, so swings and roundabouts I guess".
Is the text within quotes an actual quote of what he said, or is that someone's summation of it?
So no, not verbatim but the sense of it is about right.0 -
It wouldn't exactly be a surprise. This is a team constitutionally incapable of winning.Sandpit said:
Didn’t someone do an analysis at one of the last tournaments, that said the value is always laying England to win overall with UK bookies or exchanges, in advance of the tournament, because there’s so much money backing it from people who wish it were to happen? If they get to the final, you can almost certainly lay off the bet.Ghedebrav said:Betting post, and re the footy - England as ever are horrible value (3/1 favourites, ha); for me Germany are probably slightly underpriced, given they will have a decent team and are on home turf.
Hungary might be a good bet to get to the semis.0 -
Are we expecting a verdict today, BTW ?0
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I've just realised I posted an image at 00:03 and about an hour or so ago.
I throw myself on the mercy of the mods.0 -
They're so skinny he could be in the running for Prime Minister of the UK.kinabalu said:
Rather tight trousers. Or possibly it's just the angle?Leon said:Are we allowed to post any photos at all? I forget
Anyway I’m in the best mood in history. Sergiu Hanganu is the most famous artisanal fruit liqueur maker in eastern Moldova and we have just tried 15 examples of his exceptional produce. In a cave cellar basically from Harry Potter. By the end I was speaking Moldovan1 -
Eastern Europe is what Western Europe used to be. They have what we’ve lost0
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I think the Abbott thing is a story. There are clearly some testosterone-fuelled, factional inadequates inside Labour HQ who get high on their own supply talking tough off the record to reporters from the Tory press. It's been clear they exist for a while but the leadership have done nothing about it. That's turned out to be a big mistake. The fact it has taken up so much time on the airwaves is a testament to how well Labour has done generally to anticipate potential problems and shut them down. But they have messed up on this one and deserve the scrutiny.Mexicanpete said:...
Fortunately the mainstream media will casually ignore Sunak's gaffe and report Starmer's vicious handling of poor PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.SouthamObserver said:
"Bad news about your Mum dying ... but the good news is that you got to know me". You would not want to be his comms adviser, would you?Scott_xP said:That was the genuine Richi on display.
Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.
No harm done.
The good news from the Labour perspective is that Abbott is a time-limited story. She will either stand or not stand and we'll know next week when there are still four weeks until the election takes place. Once manifestos are out and the real campaign begins it will all be chip paper.
The bad news for the Tories is that Sunak's tetchiness and lack of empathy, as well as him being totally out of touch with reality, are ongoing and cannot be shut down - unless he does a Johnson and starts to hide in fridges.
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Noted 👍TheScreamingEagles said:
One photo per calendar day.Leon said:How many photos are we allowed? Don’t want to get banned but I am standing on a terrace overlooking the Dniester staring at the last living slice of the USSR
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You can have mine.kle4 said:I've just realised I posted an image at 00:03 and about an hour or so ago.
I throw myself on the mercy of the mods.0 -
Christianity of the socially conservative kind and nationalism and overwhelmingly white you mean? I expect many Farage and Trump and Le Pen voters would prefer living in Eastern Europe to the WestLeon said:Eastern Europe is what Western Europe used to be. They have what we’ve lost
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I couldn’t possibly commentHYUFD said:
Christianity of the socially conservative kind and nationalism and overwhelmingly white you mean? I expect many Farage and Trump and Le Pen voters would prefer living in Eastern Europe to the WestLeon said:Eastern Europe is what Western Europe used to be. They have what we’ve lost
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A true gent.Luckyguy1983 said:
You can have mine.kle4 said:I've just realised I posted an image at 00:03 and about an hour or so ago.
I throw myself on the mercy of the mods.0 -
I can’t help thinking that if they had a manager like Klopp, Ancelotti or Ange for the tournament they would have a better chance of winning - not Guardiola as I don’t think players would learn his systems remotely quick enough.pigeon said:
It wouldn't exactly be a surprise. This is a team constitutionally incapable of winning.Sandpit said:
Didn’t someone do an analysis at one of the last tournaments, that said the value is always laying England to win overall with UK bookies or exchanges, in advance of the tournament, because there’s so much money backing it from people who wish it were to happen? If they get to the final, you can almost certainly lay off the bet.Ghedebrav said:Betting post, and re the footy - England as ever are horrible value (3/1 favourites, ha); for me Germany are probably slightly underpriced, given they will have a decent team and are on home turf.
Hungary might be a good bet to get to the semis.0 -
We are too short in the betting but I think we're going to win it. Can I reconcile those two opinions? No, I can't.Ghedebrav said:
They could yeah, and there’s never huge value to be found in a big tournament.Farooq said:
They're in a very tricky group. Theoretically they're second best, but them and Switzerland are pretty tightly matched and even Scotland aren't a million miles behind. They could easily draw twice and lose once and find themselves going home after three games.Ghedebrav said:Betting post, and re the footy - England as ever are horrible value (3/1 favourites, ha); for me Germany are probably slightly underpriced, given they will have a decent team and are on home turf.
Hungary might be a good bet to get to the semis.
It is reasonably open though - as @boulay says Portugal have a good tournament record; Italy and Spain are there and someone will have to knock them out.
Tbh I’m not as well up on top-level footy as I used to be, but I look at that England squad’s defence and don’t see a back line that will win a cup. Would happily be wrong though!0 -
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Isn't that C&UP philosophy? 'Can't afford a house.' 'Wait for your mum and dad to die, we might even reduce the tax if you wait long enough!'HYUFD said:
Not quite as bad as Alan B'Stard's attitude to his constituents letters.Scott_xP said:That was the genuine Richi on display.
Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.
'I can't feed my family.' 'Get a well paid job then!'
'I am worried about the education of my children.' 'Nothing £10,000 a term can't solve!'
'I am stuck on a waiting list at the local hospital.' 'Well go private!'0 -
Does anybody want to see my cat?4
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Pretty sure it would work, but (a) CBA and (b) I think needs a fair amount investment to see a decent return.Dura_Ace said:
I don't bet on football but this probably works. I made mad bank laying Valentino Rossi for years for the same reason.Sandpit said:
Didn’t someone do an analysis at one of the last tournaments, that said the value is always laying England to win overall with UK bookies or exchanges, in advance of the tournament, because there’s so much money backing it from people who wish it were to happen? If they get to the final, you can almost certainly lay off the bet.Ghedebrav said:Betting post, and re the footy - England as ever are horrible value (3/1 favourites, ha); for me Germany are probably slightly underpriced, given they will have a decent team and are on home turf.
Hungary might be a good bet to get to the semis.
I don’t really ever bet on football - pro cycling was my cash cow for a few years but I lost the nerdily close interest I had over lockdown and without that deep knowledge I might as well be chucking a dart.
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Innocent postmasters were investigated, but they won't. Sums it up really.Sandpit said:Five Bulgarians jailed for “over £50m” of UK benefit fraud. That no-one at DWP noticed, despite names, addresses, and phone numbers, being repeatedly recycled.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/benefits-fraud-biggest-ever-britain-uk-jailed/
“Judge Aaronberg said the gang had been able to operate for so long because of “woefully inadequate checking systems” at the Department for Work and Pensions, which failed to identify “repeated use of the same names, addresses and telephone numbers”.
The fraud was only uncovered after a lone policeman in Sliven, Bulgaria, tipped off British authorities when he noticed that his city was suddenly awash with cash and criminals were “living like barons”.”0 -
I’m sure Mr Jepson ending up having the last laugh. But it’s a savage quote.DM_Andy said:
I was looking that up and found this delightful quote:Taz said:
Was it when Labour was challenged on AWS's by some disgruntled candidates ?kle4 said:
Well, nothing is stopping her getting on the ballot one way or another. It's getting on as the Labour candidate that's at issue.ToryJim said:Looks like Shaheen is going to try to sue her way onto the ballot.
https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/1796174064714678501?s=61
Only a week to resolve the matter of course. I cannot remember the last legal challenge around internal party processes, don't the courts not like to interfere if they can find an out?
Also, unfortunately for her Galloway's Gang already have a candidate.Phil Woolas, secretary of the Brentford and Isleworth constituency party, to which Mr Jepson applied, said: "We would be more likely to have Margaret Thatcher to Christmas dinner than to select him."0 -
I've got a feeling Sunak may do rather well in the first TV debate.
The public have pretty low expectations and think SKS will win, so Rishi only has to be half decent and he could well surprise on the upside.
Won't make any difference to Labour winning the election of course, but if there's going to be a campaign wobble for Labour and Starmer it will come courtesy of the first TV debate, IMO.
Oh and good afternoon PB0 -
Stop whining about it and get used to,it.Mexicanpete said:...
Fortunately the mainstream media will casually ignore Sunak's gaffe and report Starmer's vicious handling of poor PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.SouthamObserver said:
"Bad news about your Mum dying ... but the good news is that you got to know me". You would not want to be his comms adviser, would you?Scott_xP said:That was the genuine Richi on display.
Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.
No harm done.
The media are not the friend of any party and will kick whichever party or leader that’s more likely to drive engagement.0 -
Exactly. And no sons of toolmakers anywhere near positions of power with their rolled up sleeves and natty haircuts.kle4 said:0 -
Not quite the same as most people have parents who own a home they will likely inherit at least part of.Carnyx said:
Isn't that C&UP philosophy? 'Can't afford a house.' 'Wait for your mum and dad to die, we might even reduce the tax if you wait long enough!'HYUFD said:
Not quite as bad as Alan B'Stard's attitude to his constituents letters.Scott_xP said:That was the genuine Richi on display.
Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.
'I can't feed my family.' 'Get a well paid job then!'
'I am worried about the education of my children.' 'Nothing £10,000 a term can't solve!'
'I am stuck on a waiting list at the local hospital.' 'Well go private!'
Tory councils also tend to be more likely to build new homes than LD or Independent or Green led ones.
More an example of extreme Thatcherism caricature at the end of the 1980s0 -
Football managers are overrated, especially at international level. Too much credit and too much blame.boulay said:
I can’t help thinking that if they had a manager like Klopp, Ancelotti or Ange for the tournament they would have a better chance of winning - not Guardiola as I don’t think players would learn his systems remotely quick enough.pigeon said:
It wouldn't exactly be a surprise. This is a team constitutionally incapable of winning.Sandpit said:
Didn’t someone do an analysis at one of the last tournaments, that said the value is always laying England to win overall with UK bookies or exchanges, in advance of the tournament, because there’s so much money backing it from people who wish it were to happen? If they get to the final, you can almost certainly lay off the bet.Ghedebrav said:Betting post, and re the footy - England as ever are horrible value (3/1 favourites, ha); for me Germany are probably slightly underpriced, given they will have a decent team and are on home turf.
Hungary might be a good bet to get to the semis.
And this is the most successful era since ‘66, let’s not forget.0 -
I think it’s too big to fit that side.Carnyx said:
*orange* smoke would be needed, to my eye:Theuniondivvie said:
I hope Davey will manage something more lairy than that. Yellow smoke of course.Chameleon said:I wonder where in the Lib Dem grid sending their leader to Germany to neck a pint in a football crowd is.
https://www.libdems.org.uk/fileadmin/groups/2_Federal_Party/Documents/From_NB/STYLEGUIDE_LD_DemandBetter_2018_v1.pdf1 -
On the other hand, how many of even the right sort get secondary legislation named for them?boulay said:
Exactly. And no sons of toolmakers anywhere near positions of power with their rolled up sleeves and natty haircuts.kle4 said:
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/2588/contents/made0 -
I agree with that assessment. It is a story that isn’t great for Labour, but it’s likely to be time-limited, and the reaction likely to be somewhat mixed no matter what happens.SouthamObserver said:
I think the Abbott thing is a story. There are clearly some testosterone-fuelled, factional inadequates inside Labour HQ who get high on their own supply talking tough off the record to reporters from the Tory press. It's been clear they exist for a while but the leadership have done nothing about it. That's turned out to be a big mistake. The fact it has taken up so much time on the airwaves is a testament to how well Labour has done generally to anticipate potential problems and shut them down. But they have messed up on this one and deserve the scrutiny.Mexicanpete said:...
Fortunately the mainstream media will casually ignore Sunak's gaffe and report Starmer's vicious handling of poor PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.SouthamObserver said:
"Bad news about your Mum dying ... but the good news is that you got to know me". You would not want to be his comms adviser, would you?Scott_xP said:That was the genuine Richi on display.
Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.
No harm done.
The good news from the Labour perspective is that Abbott is a time-limited story. She will either stand or not stand and we'll know next week when there are still four weeks until the election takes place. Once manifestos are out and the real campaign begins it will all be chip paper.
The bad news for the Tories is that Sunak's tetchiness and lack of empathy, as well as him being totally out of touch with reality, are ongoing and cannot be shut down - unless he does a Johnson and starts to hide in fridges.
The danger, but it is only a low risk danger, is that I suppose if Abbott is denied her candidacy and all the various lefty malcontents club together to attack Starmer as being a nasty Tory, he could see some vote leakage on the left that causes him problems in some seats. But at the end of the day, they’re not seats he needs on current polling.
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He debates Starmer every week. He's shrill and awful and survives by virtue of SKS not being great either.GIN1138 said:I've got a feeling Sunak may do rather well in the first TV debate.
The public have pretty low expectations and think SKS will win, so Rishi only has to be half decent and he could well surprise on the upside.
Won't make any difference to Labour winning the election of course, but if there's going to be a campaign wobble for Labour and Starmer it will come courtesy of the first TV debate, IMO.
Oh and good afternoon PB3 -
Mish Rahman pushing the limits of being an NEC member, having a go at SKS and co, says nobody in his family is voting Labour.
Again, won't happen in this campaign but are labour headed for a SLab style abandonment at some stage if their government falls flat?0 -
Well, yes, my post was saying Sunak should be thankful it's not heading a lot worse, because that's possible.HYUFD said:
In which case Rishi should be even more thankful Farage hasn't come back as by the end of the Canadian campaign Reform had overtaken the Tories to come second to the Liberals on voteshare and 3rd on seats behind the Liberals and BQ.Andy_Cooke said:
Um, on that graph, we're at the point in the campaign just after the point where the Progressive Conservatives had briefly overtaken the Liberals.HYUFD said:
The PCs got a brief bounce in June 1993 when Kim Campbell replaced Mulroney as their PM and leader but they then collapsed again.Andy_Cooke said:Things can always get worse, so Sunak should feel somewhat cheered if they don't.
I was a bit surprised to see how the famous 1993 Canadian Federal Election actually unfolded, opinion polling-wise. I'd been under the impression the Prog Cons had been doomed all along, but the polling looked like the below:
(All done in one image due to the rules of the site).
First image was the story of the Parliament up until about the point the campaign was called. Up until then, it looked rather like "Classic swingback, albeit from a really deep and sustained low point."
And during the campaign, the Conservatives initially caught up and even led a few polls (something we don't expect here).
Then they went full Truss and into freefall, as shown in the complete image including the campaign period.
Obviously I don't expect that here (there are many things different), but it does illustrate how much worse things could get during a campaign period.
In any case we are only a month from the election so even on that chart Reform would need to be level with or have overtaken the Tories by now for second on the same timeframe
The election was on October 25th 1993. 35 days prior was September 20th 1993.
There had been four polls since the election was called on September 8th 1993:
9/9/93: Lib 37, Con 35, Reform 10, NDP 8
9/9/93: Lib 33, Con 34, Reform 11, NDP 10
14/9/93: Lib 33, Con 36, Reform 11, NDP 8
16/9/93: Lib 35, Con 35, Reform 11, NDP 6
That realigned the right in Canada with Reform's successor the Canadian Alliance effectively taking over the remaining Tories in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada which Polievre now leads. Even today's Canadian Conservatives are more populist right than the old centre right PCs were, if that is the road we went down in a decade or two's time the main right of centre party in the UK would look a lot more like Farage than Sunak1 -
-
Either there’s a verdict today or it will end up with a hung jury .Nigelb said:Are we expecting a verdict today, BTW ?
They’ve had the re-read of certain sections of testimony which corroborates Cohens recollection of the infamous meeting .
They’re not allowed to convict just on his testimony so this is seen by some legal analysts as bad news for Trump .
0 -
Luckyguy1983 said:
He debates Starmer every week. He's shrill and awful and survives by virtue of SKS not being great either.GIN1138 said:I've got a feeling Sunak may do rather well in the first TV debate.
The public have pretty low expectations and think SKS will win, so Rishi only has to be half decent and he could well surprise on the upside.
Won't make any difference to Labour winning the election of course, but if there's going to be a campaign wobble for Labour and Starmer it will come courtesy of the first TV debate, IMO.
Oh and good afternoon PB
Agree, and on current trajectory I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets chased offstage by a goose or something.Luckyguy1983 said:
He debates Starmer every week. He's shrill and awful and survives by virtue of SKS not being great either.GIN1138 said:I've got a feeling Sunak may do rather well in the first TV debate.
The public have pretty low expectations and think SKS will win, so Rishi only has to be half decent and he could well surprise on the upside.
Won't make any difference to Labour winning the election of course, but if there's going to be a campaign wobble for Labour and Starmer it will come courtesy of the first TV debate, IMO.
Oh and good afternoon PB0 -
PMQ's is different to a TV debate though, as you've got a baying mob of MP's on both sides of the House.Luckyguy1983 said:
He debates Starmer every week. He's shrill and awful and survives by virtue of SKS not being great either.GIN1138 said:I've got a feeling Sunak may do rather well in the first TV debate.
The public have pretty low expectations and think SKS will win, so Rishi only has to be half decent and he could well surprise on the upside.
Won't make any difference to Labour winning the election of course, but if there's going to be a campaign wobble for Labour and Starmer it will come courtesy of the first TV debate, IMO.
Oh and good afternoon PB
A TV debate is a rather quieter affair and I think could suit Rishi quite well, especially as the public have such low expectations of his performance anyway.
We'll see though. I could be wrong.0 -
Owen Jones off the Christmas card list:
Lloyd Russell Moyle is a gay man - like all the politicians purged by Starmer so far, from a minority - and the first of his family to go to university, who has been purged from his seat with the help of a nicely timed vexatious complaint.
As Starmer's allies carve up parliamentary seats like colonial administrators divvying up their spoils, Ward - like a vulture - is set to steal this seat with not a single local member voting for him.
Those local members should feel furious. They had a principled, independent-minded MP.
They now have a professional political operator turned corporate lobbyist who will be a stooge for whatever his old boss tells him to say or do, and they have no say over the matter.
Well, I think Brighton deserves better.
Vote @Elaine4Kemptown for the Green Party.*
https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1796181855122653441
* Elaine had cough mixed success in the Council elections0 -
He will be able to do the throwing back questions at SKS bit without Hoyle telling him it's not Qs for LOTOGIN1138 said:
PMQ's is different to a TV debate though, as you've got a baying mob of MP's on both sides of the House.Luckyguy1983 said:
He debates Starmer every week. He's shrill and awful and survives by virtue of SKS not being great either.GIN1138 said:I've got a feeling Sunak may do rather well in the first TV debate.
The public have pretty low expectations and think SKS will win, so Rishi only has to be half decent and he could well surprise on the upside.
Won't make any difference to Labour winning the election of course, but if there's going to be a campaign wobble for Labour and Starmer it will come courtesy of the first TV debate, IMO.
Oh and good afternoon PB
As TV debate is a rather quieter affair and I think could suit Rishi quite well, especially as the public have such low expectations of his performance anyway.
We'll see though. I could be wrong.1 -
Labour Candidate for Durham North tweets.
Not sure if Palestinians being rat is official SKS Party policy or whether his supporters can say what they like.
https://x.com/JamieDriscollNE/status/17962109667130044160 -
o/t but it solves a puzzle as to how 10 Aldabran Giant Tortoises ended up dead in a Devon wood:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/30/man-sentenced-for-dumping-bodies-of-giant-tortoises-in-devon-woodland0 -
One can get away with it if one has the bottlekinabalu said:
Rather tight trousers. Or possibly it's just the angle?Leon said:Are we allowed to post any photos at all? I forget
Anyway I’m in the best mood in history. Sergiu Hanganu is the most famous artisanal fruit liqueur maker in eastern Moldova and we have just tried 15 examples of his exceptional produce. In a cave cellar basically from Harry Potter. By the end I was speaking Moldovan 1 -
Not surprised you are confused: the grammar is crap.bigjohnowls said:Labour Candidate for Durham North tweets.
Not sure if Palestinians being rat is official SKS Party policy or whether his supporters can say what they like.
https://x.com/JamieDriscollNE/status/17962109667130044160 -
Whilst I don’t think it will move the dial, a lot of people hang on the idea that Starmer was a top barrister and head of DPP so will be incisive etc however if he was prosecuting he is choosing the questions and deciding the direction of questioning and able to control events.GIN1138 said:
PMQ's is different to a TV debate though, as you've got a baying mob of MP's on both sides of the House.Luckyguy1983 said:
He debates Starmer every week. He's shrill and awful and survives by virtue of SKS not being great either.GIN1138 said:I've got a feeling Sunak may do rather well in the first TV debate.
The public have pretty low expectations and think SKS will win, so Rishi only has to be half decent and he could well surprise on the upside.
Won't make any difference to Labour winning the election of course, but if there's going to be a campaign wobble for Labour and Starmer it will come courtesy of the first TV debate, IMO.
Oh and good afternoon PB
As TV debate is a rather quieter affair and I think could suit Rishi quite well, especially as the public have such low expectations of his performance anyway.
We'll see though. I could be wrong.
In the debates however he’s having to be the defendant answering the prosecutor’s questions whilst being heckled by his co-defendant.
He wasn’t great when interviewed by Mishal Husain the other morning - I was surprised as hadn’t heard him interviewed before - so no guarantee people won’t watch and the bubble bursts a little.
But yeh, the Tories are buggered.1 -
Oh apparently it's a fake tweet so guess his opponents should use the real ones.bigjohnowls said:Labour Candidate for Durham North tweets.
Not sure if Palestinians being rat is official SKS Party policy or whether his supporters can say what they like.
https://x.com/JamieDriscollNE/status/1796210966713004416
Apologies for falling for a fake tweet.0 -
What are the residency requirements to be an 'English' beaver, do you think? Is it as easy as qualifying for the England cricket team?Carnyx said:0 -
Surely all Labour MPs are members of a (tiny, but likely to grow!) minority?CarlottaVance said:Owen Jones off the Christmas card list:
Lloyd Russell Moyle is a gay man - like all the politicians purged by Starmer so far, from a minority - and the first of his family to go to university, who has been purged from his seat with the help of a nicely timed vexatious complaint.
As Starmer's allies carve up parliamentary seats like colonial administrators divvying up their spoils, Ward - like a vulture - is set to steal this seat with not a single local member voting for him.
Those local members should feel furious. They had a principled, independent-minded MP.
They now have a professional political operator turned corporate lobbyist who will be a stooge for whatever his old boss tells him to say or do, and they have no say over the matter.
Well, I think Brighton deserves better.
Vote @Elaine4Kemptown for the Green Party.*
https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1796181855122653441
* Elaine had cough mixed success in the Council elections0 -
Starmer starting to look shifty0
-
Unsurprising, Young HY, since the central Tory government has been throwing public money at Tory-run councils. They can afford to build more houses. Not the right sort of houses, of course - far too expensive for ordinary people. But that's Ok, because we don't want to have the wrong sort of people living near us, do we chaps?HYUFD said:
Not quite the same as most people have parents who own a home they will likely inherit at least part of.Carnyx said:
Isn't that C&UP philosophy? 'Can't afford a house.' 'Wait for your mum and dad to die, we might even reduce the tax if you wait long enough!'HYUFD said:
Not quite as bad as Alan B'Stard's attitude to his constituents letters.Scott_xP said:That was the genuine Richi on display.
Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.
'I can't feed my family.' 'Get a well paid job then!'
'I am worried about the education of my children.' 'Nothing £10,000 a term can't solve!'
'I am stuck on a waiting list at the local hospital.' 'Well go private!'
Tory councils also tend to be more likely to build new homes than LD or Independent or Green led ones.0 -
Sir Shifty, lol! 😂Alanbrooke said:Starmer starting to look shifty
0 -
A former DPP now a politician looking shifty?Alanbrooke said:Starmer starting to look shifty
That's extraordinary.0 -
How does that work - looking at a labour council who in the last committee meeting alone approved 1400 new homes...HYUFD said:
Not quite the same as most people have parents who own a home they will likely inherit at least part of.Carnyx said:
Isn't that C&UP philosophy? 'Can't afford a house.' 'Wait for your mum and dad to die, we might even reduce the tax if you wait long enough!'HYUFD said:
Not quite as bad as Alan B'Stard's attitude to his constituents letters.Scott_xP said:That was the genuine Richi on display.
Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.
'I can't feed my family.' 'Get a well paid job then!'
'I am worried about the education of my children.' 'Nothing £10,000 a term can't solve!'
'I am stuck on a waiting list at the local hospital.' 'Well go private!'
Tory councils also tend to be more likely to build new homes than LD or Independent or Green led ones.
0 -
oooh that shifty might have a typo.ydoethur said:
A former DPP now a politician looking shifty?Alanbrooke said:Starmer starting to look shifty
That's extraordinary.0 -
HYUFD very carefully left out the word 'Labour'. And 'SNP' for that matter.eek said:
How does that work - looking at a labour council who in the last committee meeting alone approved 1400 new homes...HYUFD said:
Not quite the same as most people have parents who own a home they will likely inherit at least part of.Carnyx said:
Isn't that C&UP philosophy? 'Can't afford a house.' 'Wait for your mum and dad to die, we might even reduce the tax if you wait long enough!'HYUFD said:
Not quite as bad as Alan B'Stard's attitude to his constituents letters.Scott_xP said:That was the genuine Richi on display.
Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.
'I can't feed my family.' 'Get a well paid job then!'
'I am worried about the education of my children.' 'Nothing £10,000 a term can't solve!'
'I am stuck on a waiting list at the local hospital.' 'Well go private!'
Tory councils also tend to be more likely to build new homes than LD or Independent or Green led ones.2 -
What do you mean starting to ! LolAlanbrooke said:Starmer starting to look shifty
Everyone knows I’d have been much happier with Angela Rayner as leader . I want rid of the Tories and will be tactically voting Lib Dem in Eastbourne but really this feels nothing like 1997 .
Maybe I’m just a bit too old and bitter and cynical now but it’s all so underwhelming .0 -
needed to be twice that, theres a housing crisiseek said:
How does that work - looking at a labour council who in the last committee meeting alone approved 1400 new homes...HYUFD said:
Not quite the same as most people have parents who own a home they will likely inherit at least part of.Carnyx said:
Isn't that C&UP philosophy? 'Can't afford a house.' 'Wait for your mum and dad to die, we might even reduce the tax if you wait long enough!'HYUFD said:
Not quite as bad as Alan B'Stard's attitude to his constituents letters.Scott_xP said:That was the genuine Richi on display.
Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.
'I can't feed my family.' 'Get a well paid job then!'
'I am worried about the education of my children.' 'Nothing £10,000 a term can't solve!'
'I am stuck on a waiting list at the local hospital.' 'Well go private!'
Tory councils also tend to be more likely to build new homes than LD or Independent or Green led ones.0 -
Greens claiming to be ahead in Birkenhead by 2 points.
Could be LD ahead0 -
Are you suggesting he should have worked for Thames Water?Alanbrooke said:
oooh that shifty might have a typo.ydoethur said:
A former DPP now a politician looking shifty?Alanbrooke said:Starmer starting to look shifty
That's extraordinary.1 -
0
-
We'd have had to pay even more for Boris.williamglenn said:Tice calls for a tax on immigrants
https://x.com/skynews/status/17961415136818466170 -
Anyway, in important news:
Who do people favour for this year's hit and giggle?
On paper, Surrey should be favourites, but it's not often the favourites win this one.0 -
Every time I start to question SKS, up pops Owen Jones to drive me back to being an SKS Fan.CarlottaVance said:Owen Jones off the Christmas card list:
Lloyd Russell Moyle is a gay man - like all the politicians purged by Starmer so far, from a minority - and the first of his family to go to university, who has been purged from his seat with the help of a nicely timed vexatious complaint.
As Starmer's allies carve up parliamentary seats like colonial administrators divvying up their spoils, Ward - like a vulture - is set to steal this seat with not a single local member voting for him.
Those local members should feel furious. They had a principled, independent-minded MP.
They now have a professional political operator turned corporate lobbyist who will be a stooge for whatever his old boss tells him to say or do, and they have no say over the matter.
Well, I think Brighton deserves better.
Vote @Elaine4Kemptown for the Green Party.*
https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1796181855122653441
* Elaine had cough mixed success in the Council elections4 -
Yes. Half the planet the red of empire, women and colonials in their place. The Enlightenment.kle4 said:0 -
So, Trump's jury has now been deliberating for 7 hrs 30 minutes.
In the face of 34 charges that may not seem a lot but the charges are basically 34 counts of the same charge.
They have to decide:
(1) whether these entries are false entries. I thought that was undisputed until the defence closing when it was alleged the payments to Cohen were for legitimate work (unspecified). I think, given the evidence, this is a walk in the park for the State.
(2) Whether these false entries were to facilitate a criminal purpose. This is much trickier.
The jury have asked to rehear some of the key evidence from Pecker and Cohen, something our juries are not allowed to do. It is by no means impossible that they will produce a verdict today.4 -
EU membership?Leon said:Eastern Europe is what Western Europe used to be. They have what we’ve lost
3 -
He's flushed with ambition.ydoethur said:
Are you suggesting he should have worked for Thames Water?Alanbrooke said:
oooh that shifty might have a typo.ydoethur said:
A former DPP now a politician looking shifty?Alanbrooke said:Starmer starting to look shifty
That's extraordinary.0 -
But for Labour will this leader be a case of turd time lucky?Alanbrooke said:
He's flushed with ambition.ydoethur said:
Are you suggesting he should have worked for Thames Water?Alanbrooke said:
oooh that shifty might have a typo.ydoethur said:
A former DPP now a politician looking shifty?Alanbrooke said:Starmer starting to look shifty
That's extraordinary.0 -
Izal consider that question.ydoethur said:
But for Labour will this leader be a case of turd time lucky?Alanbrooke said:
He's flushed with ambition.ydoethur said:
Are you suggesting he should have worked for Thames Water?Alanbrooke said:
oooh that shifty might have a typo.ydoethur said:
A former DPP now a politician looking shifty?Alanbrooke said:Starmer starting to look shifty
That's extraordinary.0 -
South Africa 2024 General Election
with 29.5% reporting = 3,578,070 counted
African National Congress 1,519,417 42.5%
Democratic Alliance 897,332 25.1%
Economic Freedom Fighters 320,888 9.0%
uMkhonto weSizwe 309,037 8.6%
Patriotic Alliance 135,134 3.8%
Inkatha Freedom Party 78,751 2.0%
Freedom Front Plus 65,575 1.8%
45 other parties combined 251,936 7.0%1
