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Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse – politicalbetting.com

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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    Well, now we find out if a criminal conviction moves the polls like it was suggested it would.

    I have my doubts, but we’ll see.
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,576
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Does someone want to give Leon a wee hug?

    Lol I’m in fucking Moldova staring at transnistria

    I’ve traveled widely around America in recent years, meeting sane Trumpites. They do exist and they believe the system is out to get him

    Is this gonna dissuade them?

    I dunno. I honestly dunno. But I do not share the confidence of PB that THIS IS OBVS THE END OF EVIL DONALD
    It's not the end. But it makes things a whole lot messier - which you'd say favours Biden as a big reason he lost in 2020 was people just being fed up of the drama.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Does someone want to give Leon a wee hug?

    Lol I’m in fucking Moldova staring at transnistria

    I’ve traveled widely around America in recent years, meeting sane Trumpites. They do exist and they believe the system is out to get him

    Is this gonna dissuade them?

    I dunno. I honestly dunno. But I do not share the confidence of PB that THIS IS OBVS THE END OF EVIL DONALD
    It isn't.

    In 2020 many big name Republicans and his supporters were taken seemingly by surprise by his not accepting the election results and trying to overturn them. Many refused to take part in his schemes, and after January 6th criticised him.

    In 2024 every notable Republican is in agreement with him the 2020 election was rigged, that those convicted of January 6th are hostages, and that this trial and all the other trials are entirely rigged. He had members of Congress lining up to say that every day, and media saying it every day and night. They are primed to reject this outcome.

    Yes, the argument goes that some more moderate GOP people may now finally say enough is enough, and Independents might. That could be true. But it won't be the vast numbers which frankly it should be.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Scott_xP said:

    @ProjectLincoln

    Random fact: felons can't vote in the state of Florida.

    They can if the conviction is out of state.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,907
    Leon said:

    This trip is A GAS

    I heartily recommend rural Moldova to any jaded PB travelers. It’s like going to inland Greece in about 1910. They have no foreign tourists ever

    You will be treated like royalty. And a magnificent room overlooking the Dniester in a famous guest house with endless fruit liqueur will cost you £30

    Did you cross the Dniester? My team has a 1 in 12 chance of drawing Sheriff Tiraspol (cool badge!) in August and I might be looking for pointers.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    ToryJim said:


    Nigelb said:

    "Donald Trump has a deep frown on his face.."

    Contemplating how fucked he is in every sense especially if he gets time in a penitentiary
    My guess is that IF Trump ends up in horizontal pinstripes, his trajectory will be similar to that of the late Governor & convicted felon Edwin Edwards of Louisiana.

    Whose celebrity made him a very popular man behind bars, with fellow inmates at Angola state prison turning to him for advice & in hope of him using his connections on their behalf.

    PLUS it did NOT hurt his image, when this particular geezer started getting conjugal visits from a very attractive woman fifty-years or thereabouts his junior; they got married after he was released - on Bourbon Street.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774

    Sentencing July 11th.

    Assuming it gets that far. @Leon has a point - you want a civil war, you point out that their messiah is a crook.

    But, and its a fundamental but - he IS a crook. So-called patriots will be foaming that the only way to protect the constitution is to bin the constitution. The Rule of Law applies to all or it applies to none.
    Do you think Bill Clinton's "bimbo eruption" payoffs were all properly accounted for?
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    Just put a small bet on Ivanka to be President at 250/1 and Don Jr at 400/1.

    If Trump can't stand himself, I think his most likely choice of replacement will be a family member (he needs someone who will make the federal cases go away and/or pardon him).
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Well, now we find out if a criminal conviction moves the polls like it was suggested it would.

    I have my doubts, but we’ll see.

    Yes, I don't believe some of the earlier polls on the issue. It could be on the margins. But on the margins is what decided the election last time.

    Biden really needs to just stay alive for another 6 months and hopefully job done.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ProjectLincoln

    Random fact: felons can't vote in the state of Florida.

    They can if the conviction is out of state.
    Shame. I don't really follow the logic of that, but the law is not always logical.
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    Jesus what on Earth was Rishi thinking? He comes across terribly in that clip.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Speaker Mike Johnson
    @SpeakerJohnson
    My statement on President Trump trial verdict:

    Today is a shameful day in American history. Democrats cheered as they convicted the leader of the opposing party on ridiculous charges, predicated on the testimony of a disbarred, convicted felon. This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one.

    The weaponization of our justice system has been a hallmark of the Biden Administration, and the decision today is further evidence that Democrats will stop at nothing to silence dissent and crush their political opponents.

    The American people see this as lawfare, and they know it is wrong—and dangerous. President Trump will rightfully appeal this absurd verdict—and he WILL WIN!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    In all the Trump excitement, have we done this?

    A member of Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet has moved to dissolve Israel’s government to unseat the prime minister.

    Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party submitted a bill to dissolve parliament on Thursday, citing the “disaster” of October 7. He added the need “to restore the people’s trust and to establish a broad, stable unity government that can safely lead in the face of the tremendous challenges in security, in the economy and in Israeli society” after the Hamas invasion, which claimed the lives of 1,200 in a single day.

    The bill was also submitted by Israel’s other opposition parties, meaning it could be brought to a vote immediately.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/30/netanyahu-war-cabinet-israel-government-dissolve-unseat-pm/
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    England cantered to victory. They hardly even got out of bed.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Sentencing July 11th.

    Assuming it gets that far. @Leon has a point - you want a civil war, you point out that their messiah is a crook.

    But, and its a fundamental but - he IS a crook. So-called patriots will be foaming that the only way to protect the constitution is to bin the constitution. The Rule of Law applies to all or it applies to none.
    He’s definitely a crook. Also a probable rapist and delusional and a narcissistic maniac

    I despise him. And I’m firmly on the right. I want an anti woke GOP candidate with brains and savvy and charisma to rock up and destroy the woke democrats and somehow save the west from our cultural suicide. Otherwise we are all doomed. America is our only hope. Farage gets that right (tho trump ia the wrong medicine for our ailments)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited May 30

    England cantered to victory. They hardly even got out of bed.

    Not a great warm-up series for England. 2 rained off and 1 that was hugely one sided.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,501
    edited May 30
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Does someone want to give Leon a wee hug?

    Lol I’m in fucking Moldova staring at transnistria

    I’ve traveled widely around America in recent years, meeting sane Trumpites. They do exist and they believe the system is out to get him

    Is this gonna dissuade them?

    I dunno. I honestly dunno. But I do not share the confidence of PB that THIS IS OBVS THE END OF EVIL DONALD
    It isn't.

    In 2020 many big name Republicans and his supporters were taken seemingly by surprise by his not accepting the election results and trying to overturn them. Many refused to take part in his schemes, and after January 6th criticised him.

    In 2024 every notable Republican is in agreement with him the 2020 election was rigged, that those convicted of January 6th are hostages, and that this trial and all the other trials are entirely rigged. He had members of Congress lining up to say that every day, and media saying it every day and night. They are primed to reject this outcome.

    Yes, the argument goes that some more moderate GOP people may now finally say enough is enough, and Independents might. That could be true. But it won't be the vast numbers which frankly it should be.
    Had Trump been acquitted he would almost certainly be returning to the White House in November that is clear, Biden's approval ratings in the US are not good at all.

    However Trump's conviction may well have given Biden a get out of jail free card as some Independents who backed him in 2020, were wavering to Trump, now return to the President.

    What is clear though is tonight Haley is entitled to tell Republicans 'I told you so.' Had she got the nomination she could already be measuring the drapes in the Oval Office most likely
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Just put a small bet on Ivanka to be President at 250/1 and Don Jr at 400/1.

    If Trump can't stand himself, I think his most likely choice of replacement will be a family member (he needs someone who will make the federal cases go away and/or pardon him).

    Ivanka didn't show up to support daddy in the trial, or spent day after day talking to the media to do so, she may not be best placed to do it. I assume she and her husband are enjoying their mega wealth too much to bother, unlike the boys who are tied to his pursestrings (though their loyalty and love does appear to be sincere).

    No love for Eric?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    HYUFD said:

    Trump emerges from court, calls the case corrupt, he is innocent and the real verdict will be in November when he fights for his country and the constitution. Calls it rigged and created by the Biden administration

    Blames Soros.

    Pure anti-jew Hungarian crap spewing out of him.
    I didn't even know he was a Labour candidate!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032

    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, how useless are Trump's lawyers?

    What was he thinking with that motion to dismiss?

    Trump does have spectacularly bad lawyers, but that’s what happens when you’re unreliable when it comes to paying your lawyers, and won’t follow their instructions.
    It's also what happens when you think you are a better lawyer than your lawyers and tell them how to run the case.

    It was risible to deny the Stormy Daniels affair. He should have pleaded guilty to the misdemeanours. Taken a fine.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224

    Donald Trump’s Wikipedia page now reads:

    Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, businessman, and convicted felon who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.

    And 'balance of probability' rapist.
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,621
    Three lessons from Trump's current lead in many of the polls:

    1) There's no such thing as bad publicity
    2) Crime can pay
    3) You may not be able to fool all of the people all of the time, but you can certainly fool a good few of them for years.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    Leon said:

    I agree this is properly entertaining

    My ideal result would be the clearly unfit Trump retiring and a sane but firmly hard right Republican candidate beating the living shit out of Biden

    Of course.

    But most of us (and the US electorate) aren't fans of the hard right, and the wimps who daren't run against Trump for the nomination are unlikely to succeed now Trump's been publicly disgraced.

    Wonder if they'll got for Haley, though ?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,546

    .

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    TRUMP GUILTY!!!!!!

    All juries find Trump guilty, it seems

    GET THE FUCK IN!
    ... JAIL.
    First offender, not completely sure he will get the jail.
    It’s not the sort of offence that would usually attract jail time.
    Maybe for repeat offences but this is really a single course of conduct which would normally be charged as a single offence, not 34.

    OTOH his statement about this being a rigged trial by a biased judge and a corrupt DA who is being instructed by Biden is not exactly going to help. He's really tried hard to piss the judge off.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    kinabalu said:

    CatMan said:

    Prepare for Trump's poll numbers to go up now

    Let's see. I doubt it. It's the start of the skids, I think.
    How many times have you said that before?
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171

    Sentencing July 11th.

    Assuming it gets that far. @Leon has a point - you want a civil war, you point out that their messiah is a crook.

    But, and its a fundamental but - he IS a crook. So-called patriots will be foaming that the only way to protect the constitution is to bin the constitution. The Rule of Law applies to all or it applies to none.
    Do you think Bill Clinton's "bimbo eruption" payoffs were all properly accounted for?
    If you have evidence that could lead to the conviction of a criminal, report it to the relevant authorities. Otherwise, what’s that got to do with the price of fish? Bill Clinton ain’t been on the ballot for many years.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    Speaker Mike Johnson
    @SpeakerJohnson
    My statement on President Trump trial verdict:

    Today is a shameful day in American history. Democrats cheered as they convicted the leader of the opposing party on ridiculous charges, predicated on the testimony of a disbarred, convicted felon. This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one.

    The weaponization of our justice system has been a hallmark of the Biden Administration, and the decision today is further evidence that Democrats will stop at nothing to silence dissent and crush their political opponents.

    The American people see this as lawfare, and they know it is wrong—and dangerous. President Trump will rightfully appeal this absurd verdict—and he WILL WIN!

    So he's going to order his followers to stop coming up with vexatious impeachments based on forged evidence?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    NEW THREAD

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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    Scott_xP said:

    @ProjectLincoln

    Random fact: felons can't vote in the state of Florida.

    Can they be on the ballot?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Speaker Mike Johnson
    @SpeakerJohnson
    My statement on President Trump trial verdict:

    Today is a shameful day in American history. Democrats cheered as they convicted the leader of the opposing party on ridiculous charges, predicated on the testimony of a disbarred, convicted felon. This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one.

    The weaponization of our justice system has been a hallmark of the Biden Administration, and the decision today is further evidence that Democrats will stop at nothing to silence dissent and crush their political opponents.

    The American people see this as lawfare, and they know it is wrong—and dangerous. President Trump will rightfully appeal this absurd verdict—and he WILL WIN!

    Not even a hint of doubt, no recognition Cohen is not the only witness in the trial (or that people get convicted on the testimony of liars and felons all the time). They have bought hook line and sinker Trump's argument from before the first indictment that being a politician means you cannot be charged with crimes.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,460

    Jesus what on Earth was Rishi thinking? He comes across terribly in that clip.

    I think it’s eyes of the beholder stuff. I think it was ok, you think it was terrible.
    Did you have fun at the oval?
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    Sentencing July 11th.

    Assuming it gets that far. @Leon has a point - you want a civil war, you point out that their messiah is a crook.

    But, and its a fundamental but - he IS a crook. So-called patriots will be foaming that the only way to protect the constitution is to bin the constitution. The Rule of Law applies to all or it applies to none.
    Do you think Bill Clinton's "bimbo eruption" payoffs were all properly accounted for?
    Whataboutery at its absolute finest.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    Speaker Mike Johnson
    @SpeakerJohnson
    My statement on President Trump trial verdict:

    Today is a shameful day in American history. Democrats cheered as they convicted the leader of the opposing party on ridiculous charges, predicated on the testimony of a disbarred, convicted felon. This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one.

    The weaponization of our justice system has been a hallmark of the Biden Administration, and the decision today is further evidence that Democrats will stop at nothing to silence dissent and crush their political opponents.

    The American people see this as lawfare, and they know it is wrong—and dangerous. President Trump will rightfully appeal this absurd verdict—and he WILL WIN!

    I understand that point of view.

    But it's a consequence of elected prosecutors. In New York, prosecuting Donald Trump is politically popular.

    How do you solve that issue?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I agree this is properly entertaining

    My ideal result would be the clearly unfit Trump retiring and a sane but firmly hard right Republican candidate beating the living shit out of Biden

    Of course.

    But most of us (and the US electorate) aren't fans of the hard right, and the wimps who daren't run against Trump for the nomination are unlikely to succeed now Trump's been publicly disgraced.

    Wonder if they'll got for Haley, though ?
    Anyone who isn’t hard right at this point in western history is either a cretin or a lunatic
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 5,017
    I would comment that the only certainty about the situation with Trump is that it will fuel polarisation and reaction. Ultimately he is best understood the antithesis of the 'liberal establishment', it will keep reinventing itself.
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    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,893
    And now for something completely different.

    Peter Cook's timeless interpretation of the judgment in the Thorpe trial, 60 minutes in:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8irSpGPkAZ8

    Yours truly may be heard laughing, discretely.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,743
    ydoethur said:

    Speaker Mike Johnson
    @SpeakerJohnson
    My statement on President Trump trial verdict:

    Today is a shameful day in American history. Democrats cheered as they convicted the leader of the opposing party on ridiculous charges, predicated on the testimony of a disbarred, convicted felon. This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one.

    The weaponization of our justice system has been a hallmark of the Biden Administration, and the decision today is further evidence that Democrats will stop at nothing to silence dissent and crush their political opponents.

    The American people see this as lawfare, and they know it is wrong—and dangerous. President Trump will rightfully appeal this absurd verdict—and he WILL WIN!

    So he's going to order his followers to stop coming up with vexatious impeachments based on forged evidence?
    The worst thing about the scum at the top of the GOP is that we know they are lying about Trump as so many of them were on the record condemning Trump before he got the nomination in 2016. It's precisely stuff like today's conviction that they were warning against. Absolute garbage people like their leader.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224
    kle4 said:

    Well, now we find out if a criminal conviction moves the polls like it was suggested it would.

    I have my doubts, but we’ll see.

    Yes, I don't believe some of the earlier polls on the issue. It could be on the margins. But on the margins is what decided the election last time.

    Biden really needs to just stay alive for another 6 months and hopefully job done.
    Guilty here brings more salience to the other trials Trump faces. And this whole legal jeopardy area only needs to shift a small % of non partisan voters for him to become unelectable.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I agree this is properly entertaining

    My ideal result would be the clearly unfit Trump retiring and a sane but firmly hard right Republican candidate beating the living shit out of Biden

    Of course.

    But most of us (and the US electorate) aren't fans of the hard right, and the wimps who daren't run against Trump for the nomination are unlikely to succeed now Trump's been publicly disgraced.

    Wonder if they'll got for Haley, though ?
    Anyone who isn’t hard right at this point in western history is either a cretin or a lunatic
    You’re drunk.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 5,017
    The situation with Liz Truss and the 'podcast of the lotus eaters' is also quite interesting to watch. The reason why this happens is there is no mainstream opposition to the 'woke consensus', it has co-opted the right wing which no longer means anything. But of course the antithesis eventually emerges and people are irresistably drawn to it when they tire of the status quo.

    I've watched the podcast a few times. I am not a fan but the idea that it is 'hate' or 'extremism' and calls for its outlawing/cancellation are laughable. They will just fuel its popularity.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326
    darkage said:

    The situation with Liz Truss and the 'podcast of the lotus eaters' is also quite interesting to watch. The reason why this happens is there is no mainstream opposition to the 'woke consensus', it has co-opted the right wing which no longer means anything. But of course the antithesis eventually emerges and people are irresistably drawn to it when they tire of the status quo.

    I've watched the podcast a few times. I am not a fan but the idea that it is 'hate' or 'extremism' and calls for its outlawing/cancellation are laughable. They will just fuel its popularity.

    I am genuinely confused as to who is cancelling whom here? Are you saying that Truss is cancelling POTLE, POTLE is cancelling Truss, or both being cancelled by a third party?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    So...

    I have a lot of sympathy with the view that the Trump prosecution in this case was "political". The issue I have, though, is that the US legal system is setup to be political.

    If you want to get elected District Attorney, you need to take on - and win - cases that your constituents care about.

    In New York, that means taking on Trump.

    Of course, this is all possible because the Former President has - let's be honest here - committed a litany of crimes. Is the documents case bullshit? Yes, but he did actually committed the crimes. He did falsify business records.

    And I'm also deeply uncomfortable with the idea that Presidents should be immune from prosecution because... well... they were President. Nobody should be above the law.

    Like @Leon, I believe this boosts Trump's chances of being reelected. I think the increase in turnout in Trump base will outweigh any (minimal) effects on independents.

    Ultimately, Biden will (probably) lose for the same reason every incumbent is losing right now: wages have not risen as fast as prices. And they haven't risen as fast as prices because of the impact of the Ukraine war on global commodity prices.

    Trump won't solve this. In fact, he'll probably make it worse by adding tariffs. And I suspect the Ukrainians will be forced to cede half their country by "realist" Trump, at least until the Putin regime collapses.

    I'm pretty depressed, therefore, about the world. Four more years of Trump. Four more years of increasing political polarization. It's pretty shit.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,311
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I agree this is properly entertaining

    My ideal result would be the clearly unfit Trump retiring and a sane but firmly hard right Republican candidate beating the living shit out of Biden

    Of course.

    But most of us (and the US electorate) aren't fans of the hard right, and the wimps who daren't run against Trump for the nomination are unlikely to succeed now Trump's been publicly disgraced.

    Wonder if they'll got for Haley, though ?
    Anyone who isn’t hard right at this point in western history is either a cretin or a lunatic
    I thought we discussed this the other day. "Hard right" and "hard left" are meaningless terms often used as perjoratives.

    How would you characterise "hard right"? Strong on defence, strong sense of national identity, anti immigration and especially anti-Muslim immigration? In favour of "traditional values" (whatever they may be so not excluding anti-semitism in some parts of Europe), socially conservative but economically? Pro a strong interventionist State supporting traditional working people or pro a small State, small Government, low taxes where Services are kept to a minimum?

    To paraphrase your latest comment, you must either be a cretin or a lunatic not to see the contradictions in a position calling itself "hard right".

    The populists try to square the circle of these contradictions but ultimately they can't - they either throw the poorer elements of society under the bus (if they still run them) to keep the rich happy or they antagonise the rich by genuinely trying to help those who need help and the rich look for another patsy they can throw their money behind and get into power.

    The poor can shout but money talks.
This discussion has been closed.