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Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    ToryJim said:
    It seems that her having a baby is her main excuse for liking an antisemitic post. Don't lots of women manage to give birth without being afflicted by momentary antisemitism?
    What was this post Faiza Shaheen liked?
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    edited May 30
    s
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    From the local news desk and the Open Newham blog - fun and games in Newham Labour following the departure of the former MP for West Ham, Lyn Brown, on Tuesday. Some rumours she wanted to switch to Stratford & Bow but her early canvassing suggested Labour will have a fight on their hands (not sure how much credence I give this) so she decided to step down.

    James Asser, a Newham Councillor, is the Labour candidate for West Ham & Beckton.

    The Conservatives have so far not selected any candidates in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton or Stratford & Bow. The LDs have a candidate in Stratford & Bow but not in the other two seats.

    Sir Stephen Timms will stand again in East Ham and there are candidates from the Greens, Reform and the so-called Newham Independents (registration to be a party yet to be approved by the Electoral Commission so they are just calling themselves Independents). Said group are more likely to be working West Ham & Beckton where their candidate is Plaistow Councillor Sophia Naqvi.

    Three Newham Council vacancies are all subject to by elections on July 4th - Beckton, Maryland and Forest Gate North, the latter two are in the Stratford & Bow Constituency..

    Timms may sleep easier to know that he's assured of my vote. Mrs N too, I'd think.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Breaking:

    Labour retains a 25 point lead over Tories despite Rishi Sunak’s policy blitz, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    Two of Rishi Sunak’s announcements - income tax cuts for pensioners & scrapping Micky mouse degrees - are popular with voters

    Compulsory national service for 18 year olds is backed by 57% of over 65s but just 18% of those aged between 18 and 24

    Just 6% of voters had a better view of Tories as a result of what they had seen and heard during the campaign so far, while 18% had a worse view

    Labour: 46 (-1)
    Conservatives: 21 (+1)
    Reform UK: 15 (+3)
    Lib Dems: 8 (-1)

    Failing some Donaldson-like revelations about SKS the poles just aren't going to shift are they?
    No, they'd have to go to the ends of the earth to shift the poles
    Damn I thought I'd got the correction done in time!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    edited May 30
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    boulay said:

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Taz said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @mikeysmith
    STORY

    Rishi Sunak caught taking private helicopter flight home hours after gushing about train travel

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1796227395650744553

    @DPMcBride

    The little stool for getting on and off is very sweet.

    https://x.com/DPMcBride/status/1796231370454516182

    Nobody cares about Rishi's travel arrangements?
    Scott does.

    So nobody of any consequence.
    Will Scott finally stop his 8 year sulk and let go his bitterness once Election 24 is over? 🙏
    He’s too busy being a high achiever to waste time letting go of his bitterness. That’s time he could have spent in the corridors of power, making a difference, being successful. Better off reposting tweets.
    OTOH, he’ll have the satisfaction of being first to post the news about Starmer reapplying for EU membership…
    He will even fail at that. Someone who actually does something will hear it before him and post it here.

    It’s been the best possible opening for brilliant people like Scott to stand to be an MP and make a difference, stun us with his ideas, lead the country to a brighter future. Or just shitpost on PB.
    Breaking: Starmer has just applied for UK to re-join the EU!

    [Thought I'd get in first, for the record.]
    It's perfectly possible he tries that.

    No-one has a clue what he's going to do, or what will renege on, except the shit policies he really seems to care about - like eviscerating our education sector.
    Um ensuring that we have pushy parents trying to improve their local primary and secondary schools rather than paying to make a problem go away does to me seem like a good policy.

    Granted I know that you children won't be kept away from the working class but hey the working class now have the misfortune that.... (this last bit is a joke btw)..
    Any pushy parents no longer able to afford private school fees would almost certainly not touch a state school that was anything other than Outstanding rated on everything with a bargepole. So it really makes no difference to raising state standards except reducing places for children who might otherwise have got into an Outstanding school
    Again see my comment below regarding Durham Framwellgate. Basically a lot of the time you aren't going to get into the Outstanding school unless you up sticks and move next door to said school...
    If you could afford private school fees before you can certainly afford to move to the catchment area of an Outstanding school.

    Plus you will almost certainly be motivated enough do the necessary church attendance or fund enough tutors to get your child into an Outstanding church school or a grammar school
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    Not necessarily, if a jury has clearly decided on not guilty it normally reaches a verdict within a few hours (and the defence asked for a swift and decisive not guilty).

    I agree. These things aren't massively predictive. But, in general, long deliberations are bad news for the defence.

    Not guilty verdicts are often very quick. If you go round the jury room and four or five jurors are deeply sceptical or even hostile towards convicting, the rest realise quickly it ain't happening. You need unanimity to convict but, for acquittal, all it takes is for the jurors who believe the defendant to be guilty to realise they aren't going to get unanimity.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Breaking:

    Labour retains a 25 point lead over Tories despite Rishi Sunak’s policy blitz, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    Two of Rishi Sunak’s announcements - income tax cuts for pensioners & scrapping Micky mouse degrees - are popular with voters

    Compulsory national service for 18 year olds is backed by 57% of over 65s but just 18% of those aged between 18 and 24

    Just 6% of voters had a better view of Tories as a result of what they had seen and heard during the campaign so far, while 18% had a worse view

    Labour: 46 (-1)
    Conservatives: 21 (+1)
    Reform UK: 15 (+3)
    Lib Dems: 8 (-1)

    Failing some Donaldson-like revelations about SKS the polls just aren't going to shift are they?
    Not necessarily to their advantage...
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139

    ToryJim said:
    It seems that her having a baby is her main excuse for liking an antisemitic post. Don't lots of women manage to give birth without being afflicted by momentary antisemitism?
    What was this post Faiza Shaheen liked?
    Details here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c3ggv2jxz7go
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    Nigelb said:

    Tiny number of ‘supersharers’ spread the vast majority of fake news

    https://www.science.org/content/article/tiny-number-supersharers-spread-vast-majority-fake-news
    Did you see the article claiming Kamala Harris joked about killing Mike Pence and Donald Trump? Or the one about large numbers of Trump votes being secretly switched to Joe Biden? If stories like this, run by fake news sites such as Infowars or Gatewaypundit, popped up in your social media feed about the 2020 U.S. presidential election, they probably came from a tiny group of people with a massive impact.

    A mere 2000 or so “supersharers” spread 80% of content from fake news sites in a sample of more than 600,000 U.S. voters on X (formerly Twitter), according to an analysis published today in Science. The posters were more likely to be women and older—challenging the stereotype of social media manipulators as young, alt-right men—and they had a huge reach: More than one in 20 users in the data set followed at least one of these supersharers...

    Rather than banning smartphones and social media for the under 16's, we really ought to be looking at banning the over 60"s.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    A more experienced leader than Rishi Sunak would have known when to hide in a fridge and when, on a photo-op, to lie about it despite all the cameras.
    Important not to smile too. He smirks inappropriately when under pressure.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690

    The trade union leaders ( Matt Wrack on C4) really are a bit thick. Desperate to see the entitled mad old Diane Abbott as a candidate even if that means a Conservative victory.

    Could it be, that the trade unionist cited are desparate to be seen & heard supporting Diane Abbot as a Labour candidate?

    That is, more so perhaps than actually wanting it!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
    Back in the UK, Letby's jury took a month or so. Which I found surprising.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Breaking:

    Labour retains a 25 point lead over Tories despite Rishi Sunak’s policy blitz, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    Two of Rishi Sunak’s announcements - income tax cuts for pensioners & scrapping Micky mouse degrees - are popular with voters

    Compulsory national service for 18 year olds is backed by 57% of over 65s but just 18% of those aged between 18 and 24

    Just 6% of voters had a better view of Tories as a result of what they had seen and heard during the campaign so far, while 18% had a worse view

    Labour: 46 (-1)
    Conservatives: 21 (+1)
    Reform UK: 15 (+3)
    Lib Dems: 8 (-1)

    Failing some Donaldson-like revelations about SKS the polls just aren't going to shift are they?
    Everything we have seen in the last week has been MOE stuff.

    Nothing has changed.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    A more experienced leader than Rishi Sunak would have known when to hide in a fridge and when, on a photo-op, to lie about it despite all the cameras.
    Can't hide in a fridge when you're so far behind.

    Talking of which YouGov have generated another set of numbers for The Times;

    Overall the Conservatives are up one point on 21 per cent, Labour are down one point on 46 per cent while support for Reform UK has increased from 12 per cent to 15 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are down one point on 8 per cent.



    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a7198376-ceba-43f0-a566-44b8f4af21db
    The question of who Refuk supporters will actually vote for in seats without a candidate might be, well, not crucial but vaguely interesting. Is it a right-wing vote or a NOTA vote?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Scott_xP said:

    @kaitlancollins

    Judge Merchan says he is going to excuse the jury at 4:30 p.m. ET. They have not submitted any more notes since the third one this morning. That means deliberations are expected to resume tomorrow.

    Fried Chicken Friday. They're certainly making the most of the lunch provision.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146
    Angela Rayner isn’t my cup of tea politically but this video is pretty good.

    https://x.com/angelarayner/status/1796274049766597056?s=46
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
    Back in the UK, Letby's jury took a month or so. Which I found surprising.
    Do fans of capital punishment think she should have been hung?

    After all, serial killer and baby killer. What more do they want before the hanging?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    edited May 30

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    And the response... Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

    Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)
    Yeah, he was genuinely ambushed by cake.
    It really is unfair, there is a narrative that alleges it might have been Sunak who dobbed Johnson in for Partygate The story goes that the infamous photo that showed Mr and Mrs Johnson and a bunch of Downing Street staffers partying like it was 1999.during Lockdown One, was taken from Rishi's Office window. So did Rishi take it or was COVID Lockdown Downing Street an open house for allcomers with a camera?
    Downing Street was full of staffers and SpAds, each of whom had a camera in their pocket, and most of whom had a loathing of Boris Dominic Cummings who was likely the real target. ETA or should that be each of who?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    edited May 30
    ToryJim said:

    Angela Rayner isn’t my cup of tea politically but this video is pretty good.

    https://x.com/angelarayner/status/1796274049766597056?s=46

    Good to see some positivity rather than just slagging off the opposition.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    'US President Joe Biden has given Ukraine permission to use US-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia, but only near the Kharkiv region, US media are quoting officials as saying.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy770l9llnzo
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588

    s

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    From the local news desk and the Open Newham blog - fun and games in Newham Labour following the departure of the former MP for West Ham, Lyn Brown, on Tuesday. Some rumours she wanted to switch to Stratford & Bow but her early canvassing suggested Labour will have a fight on their hands (not sure how much credence I give this) so she decided to step down.

    James Asser, a Newham Councillor, is the Labour candidate for West Ham & Beckton.

    The Conservatives have so far not selected any candidates in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton or Stratford & Bow. The LDs have a candidate in Stratford & Bow but not in the other two seats.

    Sir Stephen Timms will stand again in East Ham and there are candidates from the Greens, Reform and the so-called Newham Independents (registration to be a party yet to be approved by the Electoral Commission so they are just calling themselves Independents). Said group are more likely to be working West Ham & Beckton where their candidate is Plaistow Councillor Sophia Naqvi.

    Three Newham Council vacancies are all subject to by elections on July 4th - Beckton, Maryland and Forest Gate North, the latter two are in the Stratford & Bow Constituency..

    Timms may sleep easier to know that he's assured of my vote. Mrs N too, I'd think.
    I think he will just about scrape back in.

    BTW, when you look (which I don't often) at the Labour and fringe hard left on social media, they are absolutely furious with Starmer and co. They are so cooped in their corner that I doubt if they will have the chance to lose it for Labour, but they would if the possibly could. Which reminds me, is Richard Burgon still around? He has gone very quiet indeed. I always felt that with his particular talent he could lose an election single handed.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    HYUFD said:

    'US President Joe Biden has given Ukraine permission to use US-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia, but only near the Kharkiv region, US media are quoting officials as saying.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy770l9llnzo

    I mean, just pathetic from Biden. They need to be able to hit the airfields the Glide Bombers are using.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
    Back in the UK, Letby's jury took a month or so. Which I found surprising.
    Do fans of capital punishment think she should have been hung?

    After all, serial killer and baby killer. What more do they want before the hanging?
    No, in some respects a whole life term with no hope of ever getting released is worse than a swift death
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @jessicaelgot

    🚨That was quick!

    Labour selects teacher Shama Tatler in Chingford and Woodford Green, a key figure in Labour To Win.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
    Back in the UK, Letby's jury took a month or so. Which I found surprising.
    Do fans of capital punishment think she should have been hung?

    After all, serial killer and baby killer. What more do they want before the hanging?
    Hanged. Are there any capital punishment fans on PB? I live very quietly and never meet any. The debate is over SFAICS, and a good thing too.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Funny how so many of these "Socialists" are trying their hardest to help the Tories.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    We must be due a big policy announcement held back so far by Labour this weekend to try and move on from splits and Abbot and so on?

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    A more experienced leader than Rishi Sunak would have known when to hide in a fridge and when, on a photo-op, to lie about it despite all the cameras.
    Can't hide in a fridge when you're so far behind.

    Talking of which YouGov have generated another set of numbers for The Times;

    Overall the Conservatives are up one point on 21 per cent, Labour are down one point on 46 per cent while support for Reform UK has increased from 12 per cent to 15 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are down one point on 8 per cent.



    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a7198376-ceba-43f0-a566-44b8f4af21db
    The question of who Refuk supporters will actually vote for in seats without a candidate might be, well, not crucial but vaguely interesting. Is it a right-wing vote or a NOTA vote?
    It looks like they have candidates now for 500 or so seats, so not many left to fill for a full slate.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,568

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    FWIW it has always seemed to me that if all 12 are required for a guilty verdict this isn't going to happen.
    The jury is from Manhattan, if a jury won't convict Trump there of at least 1 of 38 charges he wouldn't be convicted anywhere in the US
    Are you suggesting that if Trump can make it there, he can make it anywhere?
    As Big Ron used to sing ‘it’s up to you, Dwight Yorke, Dwight Yorke’
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
    Back in the UK, Letby's jury took a month or so. Which I found surprising.
    Indeed, at the end of the day the only people who know what is going on are the jury themselves.

    Given the large number of charges, their complexity and the need for unanimity it is likely they will take their time and want a verdict that has considered carefully all the evidence and where they all agree
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    Jury have a verdict !
  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 731
    Scott_xP said:

    @MrMichaelSpicer

    the room next door - Rishi Sunak and the Eye Roller

    https://x.com/MrMichaelSpicer/status/1796249063777579113

    That is brilliant. I love his stuff.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123

    Funny how so many of these "Socialists" are trying their hardest to help the Tories.

    Plus ca change.

    Only one thing utterly worse than Tory party in office and that is middle of the road Wilson/Blair type social democratic party in office.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    edited May 30

    HYUFD said:

    'US President Joe Biden has given Ukraine permission to use US-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia, but only near the Kharkiv region, US media are quoting officials as saying.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy770l9llnzo

    I mean, just pathetic from Biden. They need to be able to hit the airfields the Glide Bombers are using.
    He has to be careful not to push towards WW3 as well however by sending US missiles deep into Russia itself
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146
    Looks like we might have a verdict

    https://x.com/maggienyt/status/1796279774106550484?s=46
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
    Back in the UK, Letby's jury took a month or so. Which I found surprising.
    Do fans of capital punishment think she should have been hung?

    After all, serial killer and baby killer. What more do they want before the hanging?
    Hanged. Hung is what I am.

    Looking at the shit NHS trusts hand out to NHS whistle blowers I am profoundly unhappy about this conviction on the basis of NHS generated evidence. And this is not because she is a pretty blonde, because she is neither.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @nadinebh_

    Not exactly the sort of stuff you want to have to be sharing during an election campaign when you're the chancellor of the governing party...

    @Jeremy_Hunt

    I have this afternoon been on a call with the UKHSA, DEFRA, Thames Water and Asda with Cllr Austin. Thames Water are implementing a drinking water stop notice across much of Bramley Village.
    Please see the press release below. I have requested that bottled water stations are in Bramley itself - they are being set up now. I will keep you updated on this, Jeremy
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
    Very quick verdicts are almost always not guilty.

    If a few jurors say, "he's not guilty and I won't vote to convict full stop" it's game over and, however much others may think they are wrong, there is no point continuing.

    The same just isn't true in reverse. If a few are convinced of guilt, there's no inevitability about the outcome and the more sceptical will want a very long conversation.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    Foxy said:

    ToryJim said:

    Angela Rayner isn’t my cup of tea politically but this video is pretty good.

    https://x.com/angelarayner/status/1796274049766597056?s=46

    Good to see some positivity rather than just slagging off the opposition.
    She is so ending up on Strictly or the jungle when this Lab administration has run its due course.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    edited May 30
    Scott_xP said:

    @jessicaelgot

    🚨That was quick!

    Labour selects teacher Shama Tatler in Chingford and Woodford Green, a key figure in Labour To Win.

    Tatler, she even sounds like a Tory!
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,576

    The trade union leaders ( Matt Wrack on C4) really are a bit thick. Desperate to see the entitled mad old Diane Abbott as a candidate even if that means a Conservative victory.

    Could it be, that the trade unionist cited are desparate to be seen & heard supporting Diane Abbot as a Labour candidate?

    That is, more so perhaps than actually wanting it!
    Matt Wrack is hardly a typical trade union leader. The FBU only reaffiliated with Labour to support Corbyn.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Scott_xP said:

    Jury have a verdict !

    Cancel the Chicken!
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    Scott_xP said:

    @nadinebh_

    Not exactly the sort of stuff you want to have to be sharing during an election campaign when you're the chancellor of the governing party...

    @Jeremy_Hunt

    I have this afternoon been on a call with the UKHSA, DEFRA, Thames Water and Asda with Cllr Austin. Thames Water are implementing a drinking water stop notice across much of Bramley Village.
    Please see the press release below. I have requested that bottled water stations are in Bramley itself - they are being set up now. I will keep you updated on this, Jeremy

    They are so fucked.

    This is how it ends, not with a bang but with a retch.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    edited May 30

    ToryJim said:
    It seems that her having a baby is her main excuse for liking an antisemitic post. Don't lots of women manage to give birth without being afflicted by momentary antisemitism?
    What was this post Faiza Shaheen liked?
    Details here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c3ggv2jxz7go
    OK so googling the text from that video finds the tweet in question was from Jon Stewart of American television fame. Stewart is himself Jewish.

    The US late-night satirist Jon Stewart has responded after Britain’s Labour Party blocked left-wing academic Faiza Shaheen from standing as a candidate in the upcoming general election for liking a number of potentially offensive social media posts, one of which featured a clip from The Daily Show.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/jon-stewart-faiza-shaheen-labour-b2553787.html

    This is the dumbest thing The UK has done since electing Boris Johnson…what the actual fuck…
    https://x.com/jonstewart/status/1795993805411229746

    Suddenly it seems a lot more nuanced. That said, talk of suing seems misguided. Shaheen has a political problem that should be solved in the political sphere.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    megasaur said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
    Back in the UK, Letby's jury took a month or so. Which I found surprising.
    Do fans of capital punishment think she should have been hung?

    After all, serial killer and baby killer. What more do they want before the hanging?
    Hanged. Hung is what I am.

    Looking at the shit NHS trusts hand out to NHS whistle blowers I am profoundly unhappy about this conviction on the basis of NHS generated evidence. And this is not because she is a pretty blonde, because she is neither.
    Yes but if we still had hanging she would be on death row.

    Who would be happy with that?

    I didn't follow the case particularly closely and don't question the conviction, but it would only take one miscarriage of justice.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    From the local news desk and the Open Newham blog - fun and games in Newham Labour following the departure of the former MP for West Ham, Lyn Brown, on Tuesday. Some rumours she wanted to switch to Stratford & Bow but her early canvassing suggested Labour will have a fight on their hands (not sure how much credence I give this) so she decided to step down.

    James Asser, a Newham Councillor, is the Labour candidate for West Ham & Beckton.

    The Conservatives have so far not selected any candidates in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton or Stratford & Bow. The LDs have a candidate in Stratford & Bow but not in the other two seats.

    Sir Stephen Timms will stand again in East Ham and there are candidates from the Greens, Reform and the so-called Newham Independents (registration to be a party yet to be approved by the Electoral Commission so they are just calling themselves Independents). Said group are more likely to be working West Ham & Beckton where their candidate is Plaistow Councillor Sophia Naqvi.

    Three Newham Council vacancies are all subject to by elections on July 4th - Beckton, Maryland and Forest Gate North, the latter two are in the Stratford & Bow Constituency..

    Looking at reports generally it's really how amateurishly unprepared the parties are for an election they all knew might be coming as early as May. A lot of candidate issues feel last minute and hasty all round, and much more so than usual.

    BTW I met a group of Labour canvassers in the new constituency of Penrith and Solway today, in an area traditionally very Tory. A sight never encountered before in the old Penrith and Border days, Willie Whitelaw and Rory's pocket borough, a seat where in the 1950s a bloke called Brownrigg (I think) stood, campaigning for the abolition of margarine. Happy days.

    Prediction: Goes Labour this time. If it does we will have a (junior - he looks about 12) Campbell Savours back in Cumbria.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123

    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    2m
    NEW: The jury in the Trump trial have reached a verdict.

    Incoming in 30 mins.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    .
    Foxy said:

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    A more experienced leader than Rishi Sunak would have known when to hide in a fridge and when, on a photo-op, to lie about it despite all the cameras.
    Important not to smile too. He smirks inappropriately when under pressure.
    I do too! So he has my sympathies on that.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    edited May 30
    NY Times:


    6 minutes ago

    Maggie Haberman Reporting from inside the courthouse

    Trump, who had been smiling a minute ago, is suddenly serious after the judge’s alert that there’s a verdict.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    .

    Foxy said:

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    A more experienced leader than Rishi Sunak would have known when to hide in a fridge and when, on a photo-op, to lie about it despite all the cameras.
    Important not to smile too. He smirks inappropriately when under pressure.
    I do too! So he has my sympathies on that.
    he said, smirking...
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Film review

    Just watched Civil War on my 75 incher (fnaar) and it is the best film of the century. Pulp Fiction, Private Ryan good.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
    Back in the UK, Letby's jury took a month or so. Which I found surprising.
    I don't see that as at all surprising. Those verdicts weren't just consequential for Letby but parents of babies who died. It's quite a big thing to say that someone's premature, potentially struggling baby, wasn't just unlucky but murdered. Had I been on the jury, and satisfied on some charges, I'd have been very reluctant to move quickly to guilty on ALL charges.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Breaking:

    Labour retains a 25 point lead over Tories despite Rishi Sunak’s policy blitz, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    Two of Rishi Sunak’s announcements - income tax cuts for pensioners & scrapping Micky mouse degrees - are popular with voters

    Compulsory national service for 18 year olds is backed by 57% of over 65s but just 18% of those aged between 18 and 24

    Just 6% of voters had a better view of Tories as a result of what they had seen and heard during the campaign so far, while 18% had a worse view

    Labour: 46 (-1)
    Conservatives: 21 (+1)
    Reform UK: 15 (+3)
    Lib Dems: 8 (-1)

    Failing some Donaldson-like revelations about SKS the polls just aren't going to shift are they?
    Everything we have seen in the last week has been MOE stuff.

    Nothing has changed.
    Technically, we have insufficient evidence to conclude anything has changed, but we can’t rule it out.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    Verdict reached ...
    But they need half an hour to fill out the jury form.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    ToryJim said:
    It seems that her having a baby is her main excuse for liking an antisemitic post. Don't lots of women manage to give birth without being afflicted by momentary antisemitism?
    What was this post Faiza Shaheen liked?
    Details here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c3ggv2jxz7go
    OK so googling the text from that video finds the tweet in question was from Jon Stewart of American television fame. Stewart is himself Jewish.

    The US late-night satirist Jon Stewart has responded after Britain’s Labour Party blocked left-wing academic Faiza Shaheen from standing as a candidate in the upcoming general election for liking a number of potentially offensive social media posts, one of which featured a clip from The Daily Show.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/jon-stewart-faiza-shaheen-labour-b2553787.html

    This is the dumbest thing The UK has done since electing Boris Johnson…what the actual fuck…
    https://x.com/jonstewart/status/1795993805411229746

    Suddenly it seems a lot more nuanced. That said, talk of suing seems misguided. Shaheen has a political problem that should be solved in the political sphere.
    I don't think it so much the sketch as the text on the tweet that created the trouble.

    It seems far too harsh a punishment to me, but all parties should be vetting their candidates Social Media, to avoid problems after nominations close. That is the modern age, no matter how much we deplore it.

    Expect a torrent of low rent exposes of candidates after June 7th. All parties will be scouring old tweets in the hunt for offence.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    megasaur said:

    Film review

    Just watched Civil War on my 75 incher (fnaar) and it is the best film of the century. Pulp Fiction, Private Ryan good.

    Opinions differ on that.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    megasaur said:

    Film review

    Just watched Civil War on my 75 incher (fnaar) and it is the best film of the century. Pulp Fiction, Private Ryan good.


    Is it as quotable as Aliens, though?
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    NeilVW said:

    algarkirk said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    From the local news desk and the Open Newham blog - fun and games in Newham Labour following the departure of the former MP for West Ham, Lyn Brown, on Tuesday. Some rumours she wanted to switch to Stratford & Bow but her early canvassing suggested Labour will have a fight on their hands (not sure how much credence I give this) so she decided to step down.

    James Asser, a Newham Councillor, is the Labour candidate for West Ham & Beckton.

    The Conservatives have so far not selected any candidates in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton or Stratford & Bow. The LDs have a candidate in Stratford & Bow but not in the other two seats.

    Sir Stephen Timms will stand again in East Ham and there are candidates from the Greens, Reform and the so-called Newham Independents (registration to be a party yet to be approved by the Electoral Commission so they are just calling themselves Independents). Said group are more likely to be working West Ham & Beckton where their candidate is Plaistow Councillor Sophia Naqvi.

    Three Newham Council vacancies are all subject to by elections on July 4th - Beckton, Maryland and Forest Gate North, the latter two are in the Stratford & Bow Constituency..

    BTW I met a group of Labour canvassers in the new constituency of Penrith and Solway today, in an area traditionally very Tory. A sight never encountered before in the old Penrith and Border days, Willie Whitelaw and Rory's pocket borough, a seat where in the 1950s a bloke called Brownrigg (I think) stood, campaigning for the abolition of margarine.
    I heard he nearly succeeded - it was on a knife-edge.
    There was money to be made on the spread bets
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    Looks as if our GE is about to be sidelined by the Trump verdict
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    NYT - Trump, who had been smiling a minute ago, is suddenly serious after the judge’s alert that there’s a verdict.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    .

    Foxy said:

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    A more experienced leader than Rishi Sunak would have known when to hide in a fridge and when, on a photo-op, to lie about it despite all the cameras.
    Important not to smile too. He smirks inappropriately when under pressure.
    I do too! So he has my sympathies on that.
    I have a tendency to inappropriate jokes at times that are liable to misinterpretation. One of many reasons for me to not run for office.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    megasaur said:

    NeilVW said:

    algarkirk said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    From the local news desk and the Open Newham blog - fun and games in Newham Labour following the departure of the former MP for West Ham, Lyn Brown, on Tuesday. Some rumours she wanted to switch to Stratford & Bow but her early canvassing suggested Labour will have a fight on their hands (not sure how much credence I give this) so she decided to step down.

    James Asser, a Newham Councillor, is the Labour candidate for West Ham & Beckton.

    The Conservatives have so far not selected any candidates in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton or Stratford & Bow. The LDs have a candidate in Stratford & Bow but not in the other two seats.

    Sir Stephen Timms will stand again in East Ham and there are candidates from the Greens, Reform and the so-called Newham Independents (registration to be a party yet to be approved by the Electoral Commission so they are just calling themselves Independents). Said group are more likely to be working West Ham & Beckton where their candidate is Plaistow Councillor Sophia Naqvi.

    Three Newham Council vacancies are all subject to by elections on July 4th - Beckton, Maryland and Forest Gate North, the latter two are in the Stratford & Bow Constituency..

    BTW I met a group of Labour canvassers in the new constituency of Penrith and Solway today, in an area traditionally very Tory. A sight never encountered before in the old Penrith and Border days, Willie Whitelaw and Rory's pocket borough, a seat where in the 1950s a bloke called Brownrigg (I think) stood, campaigning for the abolition of margarine.
    I heard he nearly succeeded - it was on a knife-edge.
    There was money to be made on the spread bets
    Didn't do enough to butter up the electorate.....
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,460
    Foxy said:

    megasaur said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
    Back in the UK, Letby's jury took a month or so. Which I found surprising.
    Do fans of capital punishment think she should have been hung?

    After all, serial killer and baby killer. What more do they want before the hanging?
    Hanged. Hung is what I am.

    Looking at the shit NHS trusts hand out to NHS whistle blowers I am profoundly unhappy about this conviction on the basis of NHS generated evidence. And this is not because she is a pretty blonde, because she is neither.
    Yes but if we still had hanging she would be on death row.

    Who would be happy with that?

    I didn't follow the case particularly closely and don't question the conviction, but it would only take one miscarriage of justice.
    I don’t support the death penalty (but would allow assisted suicide for whole life prisoners). In this case their is doubt, at least in the sense that the evidence used to convict has been questioned (statistical evidence can seem foolproof yet be anything but). C.F. to the murderer of Sarah Evans - Inthink there is no doubt at all that he is guilty.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    NeilVW said:

    algarkirk said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    From the local news desk and the Open Newham blog - fun and games in Newham Labour following the departure of the former MP for West Ham, Lyn Brown, on Tuesday. Some rumours she wanted to switch to Stratford & Bow but her early canvassing suggested Labour will have a fight on their hands (not sure how much credence I give this) so she decided to step down.

    James Asser, a Newham Councillor, is the Labour candidate for West Ham & Beckton.

    The Conservatives have so far not selected any candidates in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton or Stratford & Bow. The LDs have a candidate in Stratford & Bow but not in the other two seats.

    Sir Stephen Timms will stand again in East Ham and there are candidates from the Greens, Reform and the so-called Newham Independents (registration to be a party yet to be approved by the Electoral Commission so they are just calling themselves Independents). Said group are more likely to be working West Ham & Beckton where their candidate is Plaistow Councillor Sophia Naqvi.

    Three Newham Council vacancies are all subject to by elections on July 4th - Beckton, Maryland and Forest Gate North, the latter two are in the Stratford & Bow Constituency..

    BTW I met a group of Labour canvassers in the new constituency of Penrith and Solway today, in an area traditionally very Tory. A sight never encountered before in the old Penrith and Border days, Willie Whitelaw and Rory's pocket borough, a seat where in the 1950s a bloke called Brownrigg (I think) stood, campaigning for the abolition of margarine.
    I heard he nearly succeeded - it was on a knife-edge.
    An early example of spread betting?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Nigelb said:

    Verdict reached ...
    But they need half an hour to fill out the jury form.

    A lot of charges to fill out "Guilty...."
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    megasaur said:

    Film review

    Just watched Civil War on my 75 incher (fnaar) and it is the best film of the century. Pulp Fiction, Private Ryan good.

    But Dune 2 good? Surely not...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    Nigelb said:

    Verdict reached ...
    But they need half an hour to fill out the jury form.

    A lot of charges to fill out "Guilty...."
    Trump is obviously nervous that's what they've decided judging from the change in his demeanour.

    But ultimate popcorn - he!s found not guilty and then jailed for contempt.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    algarkirk said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    From the local news desk and the Open Newham blog - fun and games in Newham Labour following the departure of the former MP for West Ham, Lyn Brown, on Tuesday. Some rumours she wanted to switch to Stratford & Bow but her early canvassing suggested Labour will have a fight on their hands (not sure how much credence I give this) so she decided to step down.

    James Asser, a Newham Councillor, is the Labour candidate for West Ham & Beckton.

    The Conservatives have so far not selected any candidates in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton or Stratford & Bow. The LDs have a candidate in Stratford & Bow but not in the other two seats.

    Sir Stephen Timms will stand again in East Ham and there are candidates from the Greens, Reform and the so-called Newham Independents (registration to be a party yet to be approved by the Electoral Commission so they are just calling themselves Independents). Said group are more likely to be working West Ham & Beckton where their candidate is Plaistow Councillor Sophia Naqvi.

    Three Newham Council vacancies are all subject to by elections on July 4th - Beckton, Maryland and Forest Gate North, the latter two are in the Stratford & Bow Constituency..

    Looking at reports generally it's really how amateurishly unprepared the parties are for an election they all knew might be coming as early as May. A lot of candidate issues feel last minute and hasty all round, and much more so than usual.

    BTW I met a group of Labour canvassers in the new constituency of Penrith and Solway today, in an area traditionally very Tory. A sight never encountered before in the old Penrith and Border days, Willie Whitelaw and Rory's pocket borough, a seat where in the 1950s a bloke called Brownrigg (I think) stood, campaigning for the abolition of margarine. Happy days.

    Prediction: Goes Labour this time. If it does we will have a (junior - he looks about 12) Campbell Savours back in Cumbria.
    Milwaukee Sentinel - Wisconsin banned selling yellow margarine for 72 years, so residents smuggled it in from Illinois

    That margarine in your refrigerator? Until 52 years ago, it was against the law to buy it in Wisconsin.

    In 1895, the state, to protect its dairy farmers, banned the manufacture and sale in the state of yellow oleomargarine. If you wanted to buy margarine in Wisconsin, you could only get it in unappetizing white. And, on top of that, you had to pay an extra tax on it for the privilege.

    Wisconsin wasn't the only state to try to, um, cream margarine sales back then. But as the federal government began easing restrictions, other states began backing off, too

    By the time Minnesota rescinded its ban on the sale of yellow margarine in 1963, Wisconsin was the last holdout.

    As the barriers went down in neighboring states, Wisconsin consumers headed for the border to get the cheaper, appetizing-looking butter substitute. And thus began the golden age of the "oleo run."

    In the 1950s and 1960s, heading over to Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa or even Michigan to pay less for margarine that looked like butter was a budgetary necessity for some, a pastime for others. Brewers Hall of Fame broadcaster Bob Uecker used to like to say he actually was born in Illinois, while his parents were there to pick up some oleo. . . .

    https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/special-reports/dairy-crisis/2019/08/28/protect-dairy-industry-wisconsin-tried-keep-yellow-margarine-out-oleo-run/1950671001/
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Scott_xP said:
    20/1 against not guilty sounds attractive given how little we know but I guess US punters will know more about their jury dynamics.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    DONALD!!!!
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708

    Foxy said:

    megasaur said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
    Back in the UK, Letby's jury took a month or so. Which I found surprising.
    Do fans of capital punishment think she should have been hung?

    After all, serial killer and baby killer. What more do they want before the hanging?
    Hanged. Hung is what I am.

    Looking at the shit NHS trusts hand out to NHS whistle blowers I am profoundly unhappy about this conviction on the basis of NHS generated evidence. And this is not because she is a pretty blonde, because she is neither.
    Yes but if we still had hanging she would be on death row.

    Who would be happy with that?

    I didn't follow the case particularly closely and don't question the conviction, but it would only take one miscarriage of justice.
    I don’t support the death penalty (but would allow assisted suicide for whole life prisoners). In this case their is doubt, at least in the sense that the evidence used to convict has been questioned (statistical evidence can seem foolproof yet be anything but). C.F. to the murderer of Sarah Evans - Inthink there is no doubt at all that he is guilty.
    Evans?
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,460
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    megasaur said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
    Some people seem to say if it is early then that is good for the prosecution, but there are counter examples (apparently the OJ verdict was quick), and juries have gone for weeks and returned guilty verdicts.
    Back in the UK, Letby's jury took a month or so. Which I found surprising.
    Do fans of capital punishment think she should have been hung?

    After all, serial killer and baby killer. What more do they want before the hanging?
    Hanged. Hung is what I am.

    Looking at the shit NHS trusts hand out to NHS whistle blowers I am profoundly unhappy about this conviction on the basis of NHS generated evidence. And this is not because she is a pretty blonde, because she is neither.
    Yes but if we still had hanging she would be on death row.

    Who would be happy with that?

    I didn't follow the case particularly closely and don't question the conviction, but it would only take one miscarriage of justice.
    I don’t support the death penalty (but would allow assisted suicide for whole life prisoners). In this case their is doubt, at least in the sense that the evidence used to convict has been questioned (statistical evidence can seem foolproof yet be anything but). C.F. to the murderer of Sarah Evans - Inthink there is no doubt at all that he is guilty.
    Evans?
    Sorry, Everard.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708
    NeilVW said:

    algarkirk said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    From the local news desk and the Open Newham blog - fun and games in Newham Labour following the departure of the former MP for West Ham, Lyn Brown, on Tuesday. Some rumours she wanted to switch to Stratford & Bow but her early canvassing suggested Labour will have a fight on their hands (not sure how much credence I give this) so she decided to step down.

    James Asser, a Newham Councillor, is the Labour candidate for West Ham & Beckton.

    The Conservatives have so far not selected any candidates in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton or Stratford & Bow. The LDs have a candidate in Stratford & Bow but not in the other two seats.

    Sir Stephen Timms will stand again in East Ham and there are candidates from the Greens, Reform and the so-called Newham Independents (registration to be a party yet to be approved by the Electoral Commission so they are just calling themselves Independents). Said group are more likely to be working West Ham & Beckton where their candidate is Plaistow Councillor Sophia Naqvi.

    Three Newham Council vacancies are all subject to by elections on July 4th - Beckton, Maryland and Forest Gate North, the latter two are in the Stratford & Bow Constituency..

    BTW I met a group of Labour canvassers in the new constituency of Penrith and Solway today, in an area traditionally very Tory. A sight never encountered before in the old Penrith and Border days, Willie Whitelaw and Rory's pocket borough, a seat where in the 1950s a bloke called Brownrigg (I think) stood, campaigning for the abolition of margarine.
    I heard he nearly succeeded - it was on a knife-edge.
    Did he get smeared by the opposition?
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    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    megasaur said:

    Film review

    Just watched Civil War on my 75 incher (fnaar) and it is the best film of the century. Pulp Fiction, Private Ryan good.


    Is it as quotable as Aliens, though?
    I'm not going to call it in till I know what to call it in as...
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Farooq said:

    A third human case of H5 bird flu tied to the ongoing U.S. outbreak in cattle has been detected in a farm worker in Michigan, state health authorities confirmed on Thursday.

    “With this case, respiratory symptoms occurred after direct exposure to an infected cow,”

    https://www.statnews.com/2024/05/30/bird-flu-third-case-human-infection-caused-respiratory-symptoms/

    So that's cases in Colorado, Texas, and Michigan.
    Notably, all three states have VIROLOGY LABS. Oooo.
    Omg what a brilliant point. It’s like saying Look, all the lunar landings are filmed FROM ONE CAMERA!!!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Interesting to note, of course, that despite misgivings this jury *isn't* hung. In fact, it doesn't look as though that was ever a likely outcome given the timings.

    That doesn't augur well for Trump in his other trials. It suggests they ignored the political blandishments either way. Which suggests also that the cult of Trump is overrated.

    And while this is a marginal case, the ones in Washington, Florida and Georgia are slam dunks.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    From the local news desk and the Open Newham blog - fun and games in Newham Labour following the departure of the former MP for West Ham, Lyn Brown, on Tuesday. Some rumours she wanted to switch to Stratford & Bow but her early canvassing suggested Labour will have a fight on their hands (not sure how much credence I give this) so she decided to step down.

    James Asser, a Newham Councillor, is the Labour candidate for West Ham & Beckton.

    The Conservatives have so far not selected any candidates in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton or Stratford & Bow. The LDs have a candidate in Stratford & Bow but not in the other two seats.

    Sir Stephen Timms will stand again in East Ham and there are candidates from the Greens, Reform and the so-called Newham Independents (registration to be a party yet to be approved by the Electoral Commission so they are just calling themselves Independents). Said group are more likely to be working West Ham & Beckton where their candidate is Plaistow Councillor Sophia Naqvi.

    Three Newham Council vacancies are all subject to by elections on July 4th - Beckton, Maryland and Forest Gate North, the latter two are in the Stratford & Bow Constituency..

    Looking at reports generally it's really how amateurishly unprepared the parties are for an election they all knew might be coming as early as May. A lot of candidate issues feel last minute and hasty all round, and much more so than usual.

    BTW I met a group of Labour canvassers in the new constituency of Penrith and Solway today, in an area traditionally very Tory. A sight never encountered before in the old Penrith and Border days, Willie Whitelaw and Rory's pocket borough, a seat where in the 1950s a bloke called Brownrigg (I think) stood, campaigning for the abolition of margarine. Happy days.

    Prediction: Goes Labour this time. If it does we will have a (junior - he looks about 12) Campbell Savours back in Cumbria.
    Milwaukee Sentinel - Wisconsin banned selling yellow margarine for 72 years, so residents smuggled it in from Illinois

    That margarine in your refrigerator? Until 52 years ago, it was against the law to buy it in Wisconsin.

    In 1895, the state, to protect its dairy farmers, banned the manufacture and sale in the state of yellow oleomargarine. If you wanted to buy margarine in Wisconsin, you could only get it in unappetizing white. And, on top of that, you had to pay an extra tax on it for the privilege.

    Wisconsin wasn't the only state to try to, um, cream margarine sales back then. But as the federal government began easing restrictions, other states began backing off, too

    By the time Minnesota rescinded its ban on the sale of yellow margarine in 1963, Wisconsin was the last holdout.

    As the barriers went down in neighboring states, Wisconsin consumers headed for the border to get the cheaper, appetizing-looking butter substitute. And thus began the golden age of the "oleo run."

    In the 1950s and 1960s, heading over to Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa or even Michigan to pay less for margarine that looked like butter was a budgetary necessity for some, a pastime for others. Brewers Hall of Fame broadcaster Bob Uecker used to like to say he actually was born in Illinois, while his parents were there to pick up some oleo. . . .

    https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/special-reports/dairy-crisis/2019/08/28/protect-dairy-industry-wisconsin-tried-keep-yellow-margarine-out-oleo-run/1950671001/
    PB doesn't make us any wiser, but we are far better informed.
    Chuck it, Smith :smile:
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    Nigelb said:

    Looks as if our GE is about to be sidelined by the Trump verdict

    No, I think it will still go ahead...
    That is so funny and yes of course
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708

    Scott_xP said:

    @nadinebh_

    Not exactly the sort of stuff you want to have to be sharing during an election campaign when you're the chancellor of the governing party...

    @Jeremy_Hunt

    I have this afternoon been on a call with the UKHSA, DEFRA, Thames Water and Asda with Cllr Austin. Thames Water are implementing a drinking water stop notice across much of Bramley Village.
    Please see the press release below. I have requested that bottled water stations are in Bramley itself - they are being set up now. I will keep you updated on this, Jeremy

    They are so fucked.

    This is how it ends, not with a bang but with a retch.
    That's Bramley near Mortimer, in northern Hampshire, not far from Reading? Right in the heart of the Home Counties?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    LOL

    While we wait, a sign off text from the legendary Line Dudes:
    https://x.com/TylerMcBrien/status/1796283734523519102
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @nadinebh_

    Not exactly the sort of stuff you want to have to be sharing during an election campaign when you're the chancellor of the governing party...

    @Jeremy_Hunt

    I have this afternoon been on a call with the UKHSA, DEFRA, Thames Water and Asda with Cllr Austin. Thames Water are implementing a drinking water stop notice across much of Bramley Village.
    Please see the press release below. I have requested that bottled water stations are in Bramley itself - they are being set up now. I will keep you updated on this, Jeremy

    They are so fucked.

    This is how it ends, not with a bang but with a retch.
    That's Bramley near Mortimer, in northern Hampshire, not far from Reading? Right in the heart of the Home Counties?
    Yep. 1% swingaway from current polls and they're on track to have 3 constituencies from Surrey, Bucks, Berks, and Oxfordshire, which is remarkable.
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,204
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tiny number of ‘supersharers’ spread the vast majority of fake news

    https://www.science.org/content/article/tiny-number-supersharers-spread-vast-majority-fake-news
    Did you see the article claiming Kamala Harris joked about killing Mike Pence and Donald Trump? Or the one about large numbers of Trump votes being secretly switched to Joe Biden? If stories like this, run by fake news sites such as Infowars or Gatewaypundit, popped up in your social media feed about the 2020 U.S. presidential election, they probably came from a tiny group of people with a massive impact.

    A mere 2000 or so “supersharers” spread 80% of content from fake news sites in a sample of more than 600,000 U.S. voters on X (formerly Twitter), according to an analysis published today in Science. The posters were more likely to be women and older—challenging the stereotype of social media manipulators as young, alt-right men—and they had a huge reach: More than one in 20 users in the data set followed at least one of these supersharers...

    Rather than banning smartphones and social media for the under 16's, we really ought to be looking at banning the over 60"s.
    58% were 58 +, 60% were women. I suspect therefore a large percent were 58+ women. Would you be better therefore saying we should ban women from social media? I suspect if you do many would call you sexist

    quote from article "The average supersharer was 58 years old, 17 years older than the average user in the study, and almost 60% were women."
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    NYT - The jury is filing in now.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774

    NYT - Trump, who had been smiling a minute ago, is suddenly serious after the judge’s alert that there’s a verdict.

    Solemnly contemplating becoming America’s Aung San Suu Kyi.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    NYT - Trump, who had been smiling a minute ago, is suddenly serious after the judge’s alert that there’s a verdict.

    Solemnly contemplating becoming America’s Aung San Suu Kyi.
    He's planning a random genocide? :hushed:
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677

    Looks as if our GE is about to be sidelined by the Trump verdict

    Just as Labour are wobbling, too. I'm not convinced that Starmer's knifing of lefties is an entirely good thing, or that it will shift many votes in five weeks time (FIVE WEEKS! We'll have had the exit poll by now! Dumdiddy Dumbleby Dooh... Dah Dah Dah Dah etc), but it's the worst thing that's happened to him for a while.

    That genie had better have some wishes left over for when SKSICIPM.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    Trump guilty on first count
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    TRUMP GUILTY!!!!!!

    All juries find Trump guilty, it seems
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Guilty
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    Guilty on 15 so far
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,503
    Well they got Al Capone on tax evasion in the end, looks like they got Trump on payments to a porn star
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    GUILTY!
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    NYT - Trump is guilty on first eight counts

    Counts 9 through 11 are guilty.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    DO SOMETHING!!!!!
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    GUILTY

    Lol.
This discussion has been closed.