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Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,564

    TimS said:

    🚨 NEW POLL 🚨

    @BMGResearch for @theipaper

    Labour 43% +2
    Tories 27% +2
    Reform 11% -3
    Lib Dems 9%
    Greens 6%

    16pt lead is unchanged from last BMG poll in April. But 3pt fall in Reform's standing suggests the squeeze *might* be on...


    https://x.com/hugogye/status/1796250395796296139?s=46

    Reform on 14% never looked real. The idea of them overtaking the Tories caused me a wry smile.

    Even Farage is walking backwards from them.
    Be interesting to see how many candidates they field in the end
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Chameleon said:

    TimS said:

    🚨 NEW POLL 🚨

    @BMGResearch for @theipaper

    Labour 43% +2
    Tories 27% +2
    Reform 11% -3
    Lib Dems 9%
    Greens 6%

    16pt lead is unchanged from last BMG poll in April. But 3pt fall in Reform's standing suggests the squeeze *might* be on...


    https://x.com/hugogye/status/1796250395796296139?s=46

    Would be hilarious if the net effect of money for the old, indentured servitude for the young week was that they gained 2% from Reform but then lost the same to Labour, leaving them in a far worse position.
    Part I of the strategy is squeezing Reform

    Part II is going for Labour
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707

    I as a "pushy parent" paying a lot of fees couldn't prevent my kids school closing down, despite advocating to the teachers and headmaster.

    Turns out SKS's voice was louder.

    Eh? SKS has a time machine?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    Scott_xP said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @mikeysmith
    STORY

    Rishi Sunak caught taking private helicopter flight home hours after gushing about train travel

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1796227395650744553

    @DPMcBride

    The little stool for getting on and off is very sweet.

    https://x.com/DPMcBride/status/1796231370454516182

    Nobody cares about Rishi's travel arrangements?
    This ad won't land then...

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1796244431080931688
    I didn't realise Rishi had such a tiny chopper.

    There is even a dog in the picture to satisfy the scale requirement demanded by @IanB2
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,454
    GIN1138 said:

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    I thought he handled that quite well? 🤷‍♂️
    Me too. What did people want him to say or do? I think it’s just people who don’t like him never going to say anything positive.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    eek said:

    boulay said:

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Taz said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @mikeysmith
    STORY

    Rishi Sunak caught taking private helicopter flight home hours after gushing about train travel

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1796227395650744553

    @DPMcBride

    The little stool for getting on and off is very sweet.

    https://x.com/DPMcBride/status/1796231370454516182

    Nobody cares about Rishi's travel arrangements?
    Scott does.

    So nobody of any consequence.
    Will Scott finally stop his 8 year sulk and let go his bitterness once Election 24 is over? 🙏
    He’s too busy being a high achiever to waste time letting go of his bitterness. That’s time he could have spent in the corridors of power, making a difference, being successful. Better off reposting tweets.
    OTOH, he’ll have the satisfaction of being first to post the news about Starmer reapplying for EU membership…
    He will even fail at that. Someone who actually does something will hear it before him and post it here.

    It’s been the best possible opening for brilliant people like Scott to stand to be an MP and make a difference, stun us with his ideas, lead the country to a brighter future. Or just shitpost on PB.
    Breaking: Starmer has just applied for UK to re-join the EU!

    [Thought I'd get in first, for the record.]
    It's perfectly possible he tries that.

    No-one has a clue what he's going to do, or what will renege on, except the shit policies he really seems to care about - like eviscerating our education sector.
    Um ensuring that we have pushy parents trying to improve their local primary and secondary schools rather than paying to make a problem go away does to me seem like a good policy.

    Granted I know that you children won't be kept away from the working class but hey the working class now have the misfortune that.... (this last bit is a joke btw)..
    Ah, the old pushy-parent bollocks.

    Such bollocks.
    You would say that wouldn't you. I bet the teachers are your son's school could tell a few tales.
    It's rank prejudice and snobbery and doesn't stand up to a moment's scrutiny.

    The only tale the teachers are telling me at my son's school atm is about how deeply they worry about finding another job.

  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 952
    TimS said:

    🚨 NEW POLL 🚨

    @BMGResearch for @theipaper

    Labour 43% +2
    Tories 27% +2
    Reform 11% -3
    Lib Dems 9%
    Greens 6%

    16pt lead is unchanged from last BMG poll in April. But 3pt fall in Reform's standing suggests the squeeze *might* be on...


    https://x.com/hugogye/status/1796250395796296139?s=46

    BMG polling leads for Labour over the last 6 months:

    +16
    +15
    +16
    +18
    +16
    +16

    You'd probably expect more variation than that over time just from statistical noise!
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131

    GIN1138 said:

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    I thought he handled that quite well? 🤷‍♂️
    For the next 5 weeks everything Sunak says and does, or doesn't say or doesn't do, will be argue to be catastrophic.
    Having people say that about him is catastrophic
    And that's the point.

    Politics isn't entirely rational, any more than any other human encounter. Some people have "it", but others don't.

    Sunak doesn't have "it" at any level at all, which is why he's fated to wander the country with a "kick me" sign pinned to the back of his jacket. If he were a brilliantly effective technocrat, that would be fine, we'd respect that. But he isn't. So he's in deep deep trouble. Some of it is unfair, but not all of it. And if you've benefitted from the good luck, you can't complain when it deserts you.

    Meanwhile, here's an infographic beautiful enough to hang on the wall of a gallery of modern art. How opinion polls change (or don't) over a campaign.



    https://twitter.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1796249514908483779


    Any Dylan Difford chart basically. Collate them in a book and put them next to the Matt cartoon collection.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    ToryJim said:
    It seems that her having a baby is her main excuse for liking an antisemitic post. Don't lots of women manage to give birth without being afflicted by momentary antisemitism?
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    edited May 30
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    TimS said:

    🚨 NEW POLL 🚨

    @BMGResearch for @theipaper

    Labour 43% +2
    Tories 27% +2
    Reform 11% -3
    Lib Dems 9%
    Greens 6%

    16pt lead is unchanged from last BMG poll in April. But 3pt fall in Reform's standing suggests the squeeze *might* be on...


    https://x.com/hugogye/status/1796250395796296139?s=46

    Labour would still have a colossal majority with those figures. Hopefully the Tories can squeeze Reform but need to see more evidence.
    If they are squeezing reform but still not closing the gap, that's a bit of a problem, isn't it?
    Yes, and no. The changes on this poll probably saves 10-15 seats especially as the gap to the Lib Dem’s is wider.
    Baxtered I make that a majority of 220 and Tories on 146 seats. I guess SKS would buy that.

    More important, it would win me a point in Benpointer's Excellent Competition.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588

    tlg86 said:

    A third human case of H5 bird flu tied to the ongoing U.S. outbreak in cattle has been detected in a farm worker in Michigan, state health authorities confirmed on Thursday.

    “With this case, respiratory symptoms occurred after direct exposure to an infected cow,”

    https://www.statnews.com/2024/05/30/bird-flu-third-case-human-infection-caused-respiratory-symptoms/

    Where's Leon? This sounds like something he needs to panic about.
    Last heard of trying Plum Brandy in Moldova
    Wearing false whiskers and making for Transnistria with the Bruce Partington Plans in the false bottom of a pigskin briefcase.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194
    viewcode said:

    Everybody always brings in game theory, usually wrongly
    Here's a guy doing it for real

    * Simon Sinek (Ted talk, short): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bFs6ZiynSU
    * Simon Sinek (Talks at Google, long): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_osKgFwKoDQ

    Game theory is just a wonderful area of mathematics. I worked for a while on a very (very) narrow aspect of it, and the complexity and confusion along the way was mind-numbing. I think I (and others) arrived at something that was a reasonable answer (and mathematically sound) to the commercial question that was the driver for this, but it is so rich in apparently almost endless depth to simple questions.

    I think that in the future it will become a huge area of research - because AI sort of needs a gameplan. If anyone knows of any commercial game theory consultancy start-ups, then I'm keen to invest!
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    Farage charming the Question Time audience.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247
    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Who let him on the box again? He’s not even standing.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    I thought he handled that quite well? 🤷‍♂️
    For the next 5 weeks everything Sunak says and does, or doesn't say or doesn't do, will be argue to be catastrophic.
    As will also be true for SKS. Meanwhile Ed Davey will continue to do silly stunts to ensure he gets 2 minutes of news coverage every day...
    The clowning about is obviously a deliberate strategy, but I do wonder about the rationale. Election campaigns are the one time they can guarantee getting coverage.
    He's leaning into the Centrist dad vote.

    It's a contrast with the rather stiff Starmer.

    Best not over do it though.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Even if convicted I doubt Trump will get much more than a hefty fine .
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Who let him on the box again? He’s not even standing.
    He's box office.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146

    ToryJim said:
    It seems that her having a baby is her main excuse for liking an antisemitic post. Don't lots of women manage to give birth without being afflicted by momentary antisemitism?
    Yeah cases of post natal racism are probably pretty rare
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,454
    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Stephen Fry trying to change another institution:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/stephen-fry-says-mcc-stinks-of-privilege-and-classism/

    Fry, 66, also skewered his fellow MCC members, saying of the club: “It has a public face that is deeply disturbing, sort of beetroot-coloured gentleman in yellow-and-orange blazers sitting in this space in front of the Long Room and looking as if they’d come out of an Edwardian cartoon.”

    Stephen Fry says MCC stinks of privilege and classism

    Isn't that why he joined it?
    Born Hampstead. Uppingham, Queen's College Cambridge, Garrick, Pratt's, MCC. Oik.
    When the MCC ran cricket, I think his criticism would have had more weight. Womens cricket is taking off hugely and cricket is all the better for it. (Aside of the need aparently to call batsmen batters - they’ve not renamed third man yet have they?) Now it’s under the aegis of the ICC the MCC is a just a boring gammon club with a cricket ground attached. Let them get on with it. As posted Surrey is vastly more successful and a better club than Middlesex will ever be.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Who let him on the box again? He’s not even standing.
    He's box office.
    I didn’t know you were a fan.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,564
    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    He’s a knob but he triggers the right people on social media so has some entertainment Value.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Glad I forgot it was on !
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    The trade union leaders ( Matt Wrack on C4) really are a bit thick. Desperate to see the entitled mad old Diane Abbott as a candidate even if that means a Conservative victory.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Who let him on the box again? He’s not even standing.
    Apparently they asked Lee Anderson but he wouldn't go on.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Who let him on the box again? He’s not even standing.
    He's box office.
    Is "box office" a synonym of massive c***?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Who let him on the box again? He’s not even standing.
    Apparently they asked Lee Anderson but he wouldn't go on.
    Did he refuse to appear with a dangerous right-winger like Wes Streeting?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    Farage was asked why he isn't running and he said that the one time he had a serious chance of winning, "they cheated".
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    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,627
    tlg86 said:

    Farage was asked why he isn't running and he said that the one time he had a serious chance of winning, "they cheated".

    Very maga
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    tlg86 said:

    Farage was asked why he isn't running and he said that the one time he had a serious chance of winning, "they cheated".

    What a snowflake 😂
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Who let him on the box again? He’s not even standing.
    He's box office.
    I didn’t know you were a fan.
    I didn't say I was a fan.

    I said he's box office. He sells tickets.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330

    The trade union leaders ( Matt Wrack on C4) really are a bit thick. Desperate to see the entitled mad old Diane Abbott as a candidate even if that means a Conservative victory.

    I doubt Diane Abbott standing would mean a Conservative victory; in fact, she might well cause more problem if she was outside the party.

    SKS does appear to have mucked this one up, either by stupidity, misfortune and/or malice.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    tlg86 said:

    Farage was asked why he isn't running and he said that the one time he had a serious chance of winning, "they cheated".

    Pathetic excuse . Why doesn’t he just fxck off to the USA so he can support his hero .
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,627
    Why is there no libdem on? If they're in epsom, that's a key area for them...
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    FWIW it has always seemed to me that if all 12 are required for a guilty verdict this isn't going to happen.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Stephen Fry trying to change another institution:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/stephen-fry-says-mcc-stinks-of-privilege-and-classism/

    Fry, 66, also skewered his fellow MCC members, saying of the club: “It has a public face that is deeply disturbing, sort of beetroot-coloured gentleman in yellow-and-orange blazers sitting in this space in front of the Long Room and looking as if they’d come out of an Edwardian cartoon.”

    Stephen Fry says MCC stinks of privilege and classism

    Isn't that why he joined it?
    Born Hampstead. Uppingham, Queen's College Cambridge, Garrick, Pratt's, MCC. Oik.
    When the MCC ran cricket, I think his criticism would have had more weight. Womens cricket is taking off hugely and cricket is all the better for it. (Aside of the need aparently to call batsmen batters - they’ve not renamed third man yet have they?) Now it’s under the aegis of the ICC the MCC is a just a boring gammon club with a cricket ground attached. Let them get on with it. As posted Surrey is vastly more successful and a better club than Middlesex will ever be.
    Night watchman should become night porter.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited May 30
    Taz said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Do we have any local Ashfield intelligence? Is it a four-way marginal, a three-way marginal or is Labour going to get a decent majority with 35% of the vote?

    @MattW ?
    I'll have a poke around, but I see no reason to change my view that it is lining up for Labour.

    Current odds picking a midrange are Labour approx 2:1 on, Reform 4:1, AI 5:0, Con 14:1.

    My crude analysis is that Reform and Con have kneecapped each other by splitting the right vote, AIs have kneecapped themselves by Zadrozny working to move his trial on his criminal charges out of area and delaying it until 2025, and the criminal history of the Deputy Leader. I may emphasize these last more than other people.

    Some boundary changes, of which I can't predict the impact.

    AIs probably have most intense activity potential, as they have >30 from 35 district councillors, and all the county councillors.

    I'm not calling it beyond "likely to be Labour". And I'm not betting on it - potentially too volatile. Good luck if you do have a flutter.

    The Leeanderthal Man is probably planning to follow the Gloria de Piero career path.

  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @mikeysmith
    STORY

    Rishi Sunak caught taking private helicopter flight home hours after gushing about train travel

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1796227395650744553

    @DPMcBride

    The little stool for getting on and off is very sweet.

    https://x.com/DPMcBride/status/1796231370454516182

    Nobody cares about Rishi's travel arrangements?
    Rishi cares, obviously, enough to have been filmed taking the train. Tbh, I'm in broad agreement with you and do not think it would have changed a single vote if he'd taken his customary helicopter, but I'm not running his election campaign.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Who let him on the box again? He’s not even standing.
    He's box office.
    I didn’t know you were a fan.
    I didn't say I was a fan.

    I said he's box office. He sells tickets.
    Actually, yes. He has the aura of a ticket tout - I could imagine him outside Wembley or similar making a few bob.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758

    tlg86 said:

    Farage was asked why he isn't running and he said that the one time he had a serious chance of winning, "they cheated".

    Very maga
    Nope, he's right:

    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/marion-little-sentencing-remarks.pdf

    It appears to me that this is an offence of the utmost gravity in the statutory context and that therefore it is open to me to pass a sentence which is the maximum allowed by Parliament, namely 12 months. Were it otherwise consideration would have to be given to consecutive terms to ensure that the criminality is properly recognised. This was a sustained and deliberate course of conduct and the overspend on the short campaign was very substantial indeed. The sentence on each count will therefore be 9 months imprisonment, suspended for two years.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    I know some "well, he might" opinions have been floated on this, but it seems the consensus is a prison sentence is quite unlikely.

    On time taken, not guilty verdicts just often come quickly. Given unanimity is needed to convict, if four or five jurors are very sceptical, the rest tend to realise pretty quickly it's going nowhere. But if a couple are mildly sceptical but not fixed, the discussion goes on a long time.

    Also, they've notably been asking the judge about evidence on underlying crimes concealed by the payment. That implies they're satisfied the payment to Cohen was reimbursement for the Daniels hush money, as the underlying crimes concealed are only relevant if that element is proven. In turn, that means the defence efforts to destroy Cohen's credibility have been unsuccessful.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Who let him on the box again? He’s not even standing.
    He's box office.
    I didn’t know you were a fan.
    I didn't say I was a fan.

    I said he's box office. He sells tickets.
    Even if he’s box office, he’s not ballot box. There’s an election on, put someone on the telly who has the balls to stand.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,564
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    Omnium said:

    Re Header: I don't imagine much will change. I didn't imagine Labour would go from polling 24% in April 2017 to actually getting 41% either!

    I'm really struggling to find any good bets so far with this GE. I usually love picking through the constituency markets and finding some wrinkle that represents opportunity. This time though it's just hard to see past the Red tide demolishing walls of all colour.

    My betting, and Sunak's campaigning need to identify some sort of a theme which will capture hearts and minds. The problem that they have is that their best asset (Hunt) is in a perfectly balanced stand-off with Labour's best asset (Reeves).

    The most interesting market out there to my mind is BFs 'How many seats will the Tories lose' - that 201 line is rather good - although (and this nearly caught me out) it is based on the 2019 baseline. (I've no current position)

    I'm on Henley & Thame at a bit over 3. LDs to be the second largest party at mid-teens. I'm hoping some Scotland markets open up - there'll be value on Tory holds there.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    ...

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Who let him on the box again? He’s not even standing.
    He's box office.
    I didn’t know you were a fan.
    I didn't say I was a fan.

    I said he's box office. He sells tickets.
    An over promoted bus conductor?
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    Taz said:
    She's going to be lonely next parliament!
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @LukeTryl
    The National Service announcement had broadly landed well, people felt it would do young people good, and teach respect - but they didn't trust the Tories to run the scheme well. People were also much more sceptical if it was defacto conscription as opposed to community service.

    @robfordmancs
    Conservatives had this problem in 1997 too - as British Election Stufy showed, policies which polled well on their own became less popular when associated with Conservatives. Con brand was so toxic it tarnished anything it touched.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,904

    GIN1138 said:

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    I thought he handled that quite well? 🤷‍♂️
    For the next 5 weeks everything Sunak says and does, or doesn't say or doesn't do, will be argue to be catastrophic.
    Well, empirically…
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    TimS said:

    🚨 NEW POLL 🚨

    @BMGResearch for @theipaper

    Labour 43% +2
    Tories 27% +2
    Reform 11% -3
    Lib Dems 9%
    Greens 6%

    16pt lead is unchanged from last BMG poll in April. But 3pt fall in Reform's standing suggests the squeeze *might* be on...


    https://x.com/hugogye/status/1796250395796296139?s=46

    Labour would still have a colossal majority with those figures. Hopefully the Tories can squeeze Reform but need to see more evidence.
    If they are squeezing reform but still not closing the gap, that's a bit of a problem, isn't it?
    Yes, and no. The changes on this poll probably saves 10-15 seats especially as the gap to the Lib Dem’s is wider.
    Does it? A simple swingometer gives a difference of 3 seats.

    More widely if they continue to squeeze reform that's good for the Tories, but I think people are underweighting tactical voting this election - both Lab & LD will be very efficient.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,454

    GIN1138 said:

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    I thought he handled that quite well? 🤷‍♂️
    For the next 5 weeks everything Sunak says and does, or doesn't say or doesn't do, will be argue to be catastrophic.
    Having people say that about him is catastrophic
    And that's the point.

    Politics isn't entirely rational, any more than any other human encounter. Some people have "it", but others don't.

    Sunak doesn't have "it" at any level at all, which is why he's fated to wander the country with a "kick me" sign pinned to the back of his jacket. If he were a brilliantly effective technocrat, that would be fine, we'd respect that. But he isn't. So he's in deep deep trouble. Some of it is unfair, but not all of it. And if you've benefitted from the good luck, you can't complain when it deserts you.

    Meanwhile, here's an infographic beautiful enough to hang on the wall of a gallery of modern art. How opinion polls change (or don't) over a campaign.



    https://twitter.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1796249514908483779


    Polling was consistently shit in 1992 wasn’t it!
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111
    Taz said:
    Actually, I wouldn't write Sultana off. She's ever so young (30), and has got something about her, some charisma, with particular appeal to the youth. I wouldn't be at all surprised if her views moderate over the coming years and she ends up being a politician of some status.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Who let him on the box again? He’s not even standing.
    He's box office.
    I didn’t know you were a fan.
    I didn't say I was a fan.

    I said he's box office. He sells tickets.
    Even if he’s box office, he’s not ballot box. There’s an election on, put someone on the telly who has the balls to stand.
    Yeah. And there's no Lib Dem...
    What's @RochdalePioneers up to?
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,204
    Farooq said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Farage charming the Question Time audience.

    Who let him on the box again? He’s not even standing.
    He's box office.
    I didn’t know you were a fan.
    I didn't say I was a fan.

    I said he's box office. He sells tickets.
    Even if he’s box office, he’s not ballot box. There’s an election on, put someone on the telly who has the balls to stand.
    More like Pandora's Box.
    Not really pandora's box still had hope in it
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261

    Taz said:
    Actually, I wouldn't write Sultana off. She's ever so young (30), and has got something about her, some charisma, with particular appeal to the youth. I wouldn't be at all surprised if her views moderate over the coming years and she ends up being a politician of some status.
    I'm not sure she's clever enough to do an AOC, but we'll see.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,454

    Why is there no libdem on? If they're in epsom, that's a key area for them...

    Ed was supposed to be there but is currently sorting along the Thames…
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    ToryJim said:

    The way she has been treated is disgusting. I’m very happy that in this constituency I don’t have to vote Labour to kick the Tories.

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,247
    Seriously, why not surface some interesting backbenchers than Farage. There’s bound to be a dozen of so candidates with as much to offer as Trumps bestie.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,324
    Omnium said:

    viewcode said:

    Everybody always brings in game theory, usually wrongly
    Here's a guy doing it for real

    * Simon Sinek (Ted talk, short): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bFs6ZiynSU
    * Simon Sinek (Talks at Google, long): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_osKgFwKoDQ

    Game theory is just a wonderful area of mathematics. I worked for a while on a very (very) narrow aspect of it, and the complexity and confusion along the way was mind-numbing. I think I (and others) arrived at something that was a reasonable answer (and mathematically sound) to the commercial question that was the driver for this, but it is so rich in apparently almost endless depth to simple questions.

    I think that in the future it will become a huge area of research - because AI sort of needs a gameplan. If anyone knows of any commercial game theory consultancy start-ups, then I'm keen to invest!
    I regret horribly that there are so may things I can learn about but I have not enough time/money/freedom to do it. I would pounce on this like a leopard on a sheep. Damn, damn, damn... :)
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    edited May 30

    ToryJim said:

    The way she has been treated is disgusting. I’m very happy that in this constituency I don’t have to vote Labour to kick the Tories.

    I really don't think so. It would have been Rochdale revisited had she been allowed to continue to stand.

    Just to add what would have been the reaction had it been a BNP post she'd liked. Antisemitism is racism. End of.
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    StereodogStereodog Posts: 485

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Stephen Fry trying to change another institution:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/stephen-fry-says-mcc-stinks-of-privilege-and-classism/

    Fry, 66, also skewered his fellow MCC members, saying of the club: “It has a public face that is deeply disturbing, sort of beetroot-coloured gentleman in yellow-and-orange blazers sitting in this space in front of the Long Room and looking as if they’d come out of an Edwardian cartoon.”

    Stephen Fry says MCC stinks of privilege and classism

    Isn't that why he joined it?
    Born Hampstead. Uppingham, Queen's College Cambridge, Garrick, Pratt's, MCC. Oik.
    When the MCC ran cricket, I think his criticism would have had more weight. Womens cricket is taking off hugely and cricket is all the better for it. (Aside of the need aparently to call batsmen batters - they’ve not renamed third man yet have they?) Now it’s under the aegis of the ICC the MCC is a just a boring gammon club with a cricket ground attached. Let them get on with it. As posted Surrey is vastly more successful and a better club than Middlesex will ever be.
    As a Middlesex fan I feel obliged to point out that the MCC stands for Marylebone Cricket Club. Middlesex essentially just pay to use Lord’s.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    edited May 30
    Nigelb said:

    Republicans are losing their shit over the judge not providing a written copy of his instructions to the jury (“that’s obvious bias” etc) not realising he could only have done so, under NY rules, had the defendant requested it.

    https://www.nycourts.gov/judges/cji/1-General/CJI2d.Written_Instructions_to_Jury.pdf

    The media people surely know better but could not be any more clearly taking instruction from Trump's team on what lines to take.

    Discovery in the Fox/Dominion case showed very bluntly that disagreeing with Trump hurts their business and the top executives then weigh in to tell them to stop doing it. (In that case it bit them in the end when sued).
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,454
    edited May 30
    Stereodog said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Stephen Fry trying to change another institution:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/stephen-fry-says-mcc-stinks-of-privilege-and-classism/

    Fry, 66, also skewered his fellow MCC members, saying of the club: “It has a public face that is deeply disturbing, sort of beetroot-coloured gentleman in yellow-and-orange blazers sitting in this space in front of the Long Room and looking as if they’d come out of an Edwardian cartoon.”

    Stephen Fry says MCC stinks of privilege and classism

    Isn't that why he joined it?
    Born Hampstead. Uppingham, Queen's College Cambridge, Garrick, Pratt's, MCC. Oik.
    When the MCC ran cricket, I think his criticism would have had more weight. Womens cricket is taking off hugely and cricket is all the better for it. (Aside of the need aparently to call batsmen batters - they’ve not renamed third man yet have they?) Now it’s under the aegis of the ICC the MCC is a just a boring gammon club with a cricket ground attached. Let them get on with it. As posted Surrey is vastly more successful and a better club than Middlesex will ever be.
    As a Middlesex fan I feel obliged to point out that the MCC stands for Marylebone Cricket Club. Middlesex essentially just pay to use Lord’s.
    I thought someone would pick that up! So they have at least one!

    I also play for the MCC - Marshfield Cricket Club…
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @MrMichaelSpicer

    the room next door - Rishi Sunak and the Eye Roller

    https://x.com/MrMichaelSpicer/status/1796249063777579113
  • Options
    I’m at the Oval.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701

    ToryJim said:

    The way she has been treated is disgusting. I’m very happy that in this constituency I don’t have to vote Labour to kick the Tories.

    I really don't think so. It would have been Rochdale revisited had she been allowed to continue to stand.

    Just to add what would have been the reaction had it been a BNP post she'd liked. Antisemitism is racism. End of.
    Akehurst has blogged equally controversial opinions on the other side of the argument (one I shy away from because there are no rights) and been rewarded with a safe seat. There’s no even handedness here.

  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139

    ToryJim said:

    The way she has been treated is disgusting. I’m very happy that in this constituency I don’t have to vote Labour to kick the Tories.

    I really don't think so. It would have been Rochdale revisited had she been allowed to continue to stand.

    Just to add what would have been the reaction had it been a BNP post she'd liked. Antisemitism is racism. End of.
    Akehurst has blogged equally controversial opinions on the other side of the argument (one I shy away from because there are no rights) and been rewarded with a safe seat. There’s no even handedness here.

    'Other side of the argument'?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    edited May 30

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    edited May 30
    Stereodog said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Stephen Fry trying to change another institution:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/stephen-fry-says-mcc-stinks-of-privilege-and-classism/

    Fry, 66, also skewered his fellow MCC members, saying of the club: “It has a public face that is deeply disturbing, sort of beetroot-coloured gentleman in yellow-and-orange blazers sitting in this space in front of the Long Room and looking as if they’d come out of an Edwardian cartoon.”

    Stephen Fry says MCC stinks of privilege and classism

    Isn't that why he joined it?
    Born Hampstead. Uppingham, Queen's College Cambridge, Garrick, Pratt's, MCC. Oik.
    When the MCC ran cricket, I think his criticism would have had more weight. Womens cricket is taking off hugely and cricket is all the better for it. (Aside of the need aparently to call batsmen batters - they’ve not renamed third man yet have they?) Now it’s under the aegis of the ICC the MCC is a just a boring gammon club with a cricket ground attached. Let them get on with it. As posted Surrey is vastly more successful and a better club than Middlesex will ever be.
    As a Middlesex fan I feel obliged to point out that the MCC stands for Marylebone Cricket Club. Middlesex essentially just pay to use Lord’s.
    Sounds like an unscrupulous lobby group.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    Stereodog said:

    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Stephen Fry trying to change another institution:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/stephen-fry-says-mcc-stinks-of-privilege-and-classism/

    Fry, 66, also skewered his fellow MCC members, saying of the club: “It has a public face that is deeply disturbing, sort of beetroot-coloured gentleman in yellow-and-orange blazers sitting in this space in front of the Long Room and looking as if they’d come out of an Edwardian cartoon.”

    Stephen Fry says MCC stinks of privilege and classism

    Isn't that why he joined it?
    Born Hampstead. Uppingham, Queen's College Cambridge, Garrick, Pratt's, MCC. Oik.
    When the MCC ran cricket, I think his criticism would have had more weight. Womens cricket is taking off hugely and cricket is all the better for it. (Aside of the need aparently to call batsmen batters - they’ve not renamed third man yet have they?) Now it’s under the aegis of the ICC the MCC is a just a boring gammon club with a cricket ground attached. Let them get on with it. As posted Surrey is vastly more successful and a better club than Middlesex will ever be.
    As a Middlesex fan I feel obliged to point out that the MCC stands for Marylebone Cricket Club. Middlesex essentially just pay to use Lord’s.
    When I was at Uni I lived in Dorset Square - there was a plaque that said “original site of Lords Cricket Ground” it must have been the smallest cricket pitch ever. I think they must have been lying.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261

    I’m at the Oval.

    By far the best cricket ground in the country.

    A large cadre of people at work (including yours truly) are on the cheap memberships and go there after work for the domestic games.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    Jonathan said:

    Seriously, why not surface some interesting backbenchers than Farage. There’s bound to be a dozen of so candidates with as much to offer as Trumps bestie.

    But they don't have name recognition or the possibility that Rishi will have to react to what Nigel says..
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    I very rarely watch Question Time, but that wasn't too bad. All the right topics covered and the audience seemed fairly decent. As it was in Epsom, it could have done with having a Lib Dem on.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Taz said:
    Actually, I wouldn't write Sultana off. She's ever so young (30), and has got something about her, some charisma, with particular appeal to the youth. I wouldn't be at all surprised if her views moderate over the coming years and she ends up being a politician of some status.
    I agree. She is big on TikTok, a rare politician who knows how to make interesting content.

    I don't agree with her politics, but we need a variety of opinions in Parliament.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,904
    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    The are just being VERY thorough.

    As you'd expect if they were about to cause the jailing of the first ex-President of the USA.
    Indeed. I've seen some of the most virulent anti Trumpers predict it would take the jury all week or beyond regardless, and they wouldn't worry unless it goes past Monday.

    It is frustrating, as for all there are complexities it's a few key incidents which basically come down to believing witnesses or not to make or break the case.

    He won't go to jail though (not that they are supposed to consider that possibility), he'd be left out on bail pending appeal if a jail term is determined. I think it would be.
    I don’t think there’s any real correlation between length of deliberation and verdict ?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    ...

    ToryJim said:

    The way she has been treated is disgusting. I’m very happy that in this constituency I don’t have to vote Labour to kick the Tories.

    I really don't think so. It would have been Rochdale revisited had she been allowed to continue to stand.

    Just to add what would have been the reaction had it been a BNP post she'd liked. Antisemitism is racism. End of.
    Akehurst has blogged equally controversial opinions on the other side of the argument (one I shy away from because there are no rights) and been rewarded with a safe seat. There’s no even handedness here.

    'Other side of the argument'?
    Pro-Israel vs. Pro-Palestine - there's no need to be obtuse.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    A more experienced leader than Rishi Sunak would have known when to hide in a fridge and when, on a photo-op, to lie about it despite all the cameras.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701

    ToryJim said:

    The way she has been treated is disgusting. I’m very happy that in this constituency I don’t have to vote Labour to kick the Tories.

    I really don't think so. It would have been Rochdale revisited had she been allowed to continue to stand.

    Just to add what would have been the reaction had it been a BNP post she'd liked. Antisemitism is racism. End of.
    Akehurst has blogged equally controversial opinions on the other side of the argument (one I shy away from because there are no rights) and been rewarded with a safe seat. There’s no even handedness here.

    'Other side of the argument'?
    If Israel vs Palestine isn’t an argument, then I don’t know what is.

    Akehurst has argued that the UN is antisemitic, effectively for holding positions on settlement that are consistent with international law. I find those views offensive, just as he no doubt finds Shaheen’s are.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    A more experienced leader than Rishi Sunak would have known when to hide in a fridge and when, on a photo-op, to lie about it despite all the cameras.
    It may make no difference to the result, but the Labour Press team are having a much better campaign than the Tories...

    https://x.com/labourpress/status/1796264538595279006
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,904
    Tiny number of ‘supersharers’ spread the vast majority of fake news

    https://www.science.org/content/article/tiny-number-supersharers-spread-vast-majority-fake-news
    Did you see the article claiming Kamala Harris joked about killing Mike Pence and Donald Trump? Or the one about large numbers of Trump votes being secretly switched to Joe Biden? If stories like this, run by fake news sites such as Infowars or Gatewaypundit, popped up in your social media feed about the 2020 U.S. presidential election, they probably came from a tiny group of people with a massive impact.

    A mere 2000 or so “supersharers” spread 80% of content from fake news sites in a sample of more than 600,000 U.S. voters on X (formerly Twitter), according to an analysis published today in Science. The posters were more likely to be women and older—challenging the stereotype of social media manipulators as young, alt-right men—and they had a huge reach: More than one in 20 users in the data set followed at least one of these supersharers...
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139

    ToryJim said:

    The way she has been treated is disgusting. I’m very happy that in this constituency I don’t have to vote Labour to kick the Tories.

    I really don't think so. It would have been Rochdale revisited had she been allowed to continue to stand.

    Just to add what would have been the reaction had it been a BNP post she'd liked. Antisemitism is racism. End of.
    Akehurst has blogged equally controversial opinions on the other side of the argument (one I shy away from because there are no rights) and been rewarded with a safe seat. There’s no even handedness here.

    'Other side of the argument'?
    If Israel vs Palestine isn’t an argument, then I don’t know what is.

    Akehurst has argued that the UN is antisemitic, effectively for holding positions on settlement that are consistent with international law. I find those views offensive, just as he no doubt finds Shaheen’s are.
    It is entirely possible to advocate for Palestine and criticise Israel without being antisemitic. Unfortunately, Shaheen didn't manage that.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    algarkirk said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    FWIW it has always seemed to me that if all 12 are required for a guilty verdict this isn't going to happen.
    The jury is from Manhattan, if a jury won't convict Trump there of at least 1 of 38 charges he wouldn't be convicted anywhere in the US
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,676

    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    1h
    Back in January I was talking to various Tory strategists about exactly this worry: that Sunak had never been front and centre of a national campaign and would behave in front of the cameras and the public like... well, like this

    https://x.com/RMCunliffe/status/1796221609667178678

    A more experienced leader than Rishi Sunak would have known when to hide in a fridge and when, on a photo-op, to lie about it despite all the cameras.
    Can't hide in a fridge when you're so far behind.

    Talking of which YouGov have generated another set of numbers for The Times;

    Overall the Conservatives are up one point on 21 per cent, Labour are down one point on 46 per cent while support for Reform UK has increased from 12 per cent to 15 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are down one point on 8 per cent.



    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a7198376-ceba-43f0-a566-44b8f4af21db
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    And the response... Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

    Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)
    Yeah, he was genuinely ambushed by cake.
    It really is unfair, there is a narrative that alleges it might have been Sunak who dobbed Johnson in for Partygate The story goes that the infamous photo that showed Mr and Mrs Johnson and a bunch of Downing Street staffers partying like it was 1999.during Lockdown One, was taken from Rishi's Office window. So did Rishi take it or was COVID Lockdown Downing Street an open house for allcomers with a camera?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Chameleon said:

    Per Popbitch:


    "According to Nielsen BookScan, ex-Aussie PM Scott Morrison's book sold 218 copies in its first week in Australia; the sort of figure that makes Liz Truss look like Richard Osman."

    Genuinely impressive figure.

    Morrison did win a national election though, even if he isn't as good at selling books of deep state conspiracy theories to US rightwingers
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,454

    I’m at the Oval.

    Some run chase so far!
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    edited May 30

    ToryJim said:

    The way she has been treated is disgusting. I’m very happy that in this constituency I don’t have to vote Labour to kick the Tories.

    I really don't think so. It would have been Rochdale revisited had she been allowed to continue to stand.

    Just to add what would have been the reaction had it been a BNP post she'd liked. Antisemitism is racism. End of.
    Akehurst has blogged equally controversial opinions on the other side of the argument (one I shy away from because there are no rights) and been rewarded with a safe seat. There’s no even handedness here.

    'Other side of the argument'?
    If Israel vs Palestine isn’t an argument, then I don’t know what is.

    Akehurst has argued that the UN is antisemitic, effectively for holding positions on settlement that are consistent with international law. I find those views offensive, just as he no doubt finds Shaheen’s are.
    It is entirely possible to advocate for Palestine and criticise Israel without being antisemitic. Unfortunately, Shaheen didn't manage that.
    Sure, on the former, but this is why I generally avoid this topic like the plague. Because a) it bores me to death b) standards are not applied consistently or evenly and c) the way they are applied reminds me of the Spanish inquisition.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @Steven_Swinford
    Breaking:

    Labour retains a 25 point lead over Tories despite Rishi Sunak’s policy blitz, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    Two of Rishi Sunak’s announcements - income tax cuts for pensioners & scrapping Micky mouse degrees - are popular with voters

    Compulsory national service for 18 year olds is backed by 57% of over 65s but just 18% of those aged between 18 and 24

    Just 6% of voters had a better view of Tories as a result of what they had seen and heard during the campaign so far, while 18% had a worse view

    Labour: 46 (-1)
    Conservatives: 21 (+1)
    Reform UK: 15 (+3)
    Lib Dems: 8 (-1)
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    FWIW it has always seemed to me that if all 12 are required for a guilty verdict this isn't going to happen.
    The jury is from Manhattan, if a jury won't convict Trump there of at least 1 of 38 charges he wouldn't be convicted anywhere in the US
    Which is a terrible indictment of the US judicial system because to anyone with at least a ten percent functioning brain he is as guilty as hell.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    eek said:

    boulay said:

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Taz said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @mikeysmith
    STORY

    Rishi Sunak caught taking private helicopter flight home hours after gushing about train travel

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1796227395650744553

    @DPMcBride

    The little stool for getting on and off is very sweet.

    https://x.com/DPMcBride/status/1796231370454516182

    Nobody cares about Rishi's travel arrangements?
    Scott does.

    So nobody of any consequence.
    Will Scott finally stop his 8 year sulk and let go his bitterness once Election 24 is over? 🙏
    He’s too busy being a high achiever to waste time letting go of his bitterness. That’s time he could have spent in the corridors of power, making a difference, being successful. Better off reposting tweets.
    OTOH, he’ll have the satisfaction of being first to post the news about Starmer reapplying for EU membership…
    He will even fail at that. Someone who actually does something will hear it before him and post it here.

    It’s been the best possible opening for brilliant people like Scott to stand to be an MP and make a difference, stun us with his ideas, lead the country to a brighter future. Or just shitpost on PB.
    Breaking: Starmer has just applied for UK to re-join the EU!

    [Thought I'd get in first, for the record.]
    It's perfectly possible he tries that.

    No-one has a clue what he's going to do, or what will renege on, except the shit policies he really seems to care about - like eviscerating our education sector.
    Um ensuring that we have pushy parents trying to improve their local primary and secondary schools rather than paying to make a problem go away does to me seem like a good policy.

    Granted I know that you children won't be kept away from the working class but hey the working class now have the misfortune that.... (this last bit is a joke btw)..
    Any pushy parents no longer able to afford private school fees would almost certainly not touch a state school that was anything other than Outstanding rated on everything with a bargepole. So it really makes no difference to raising state standards except reducing places for children who might otherwise have got into an Outstanding school
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,564
    Chameleon said:

    I’m at the Oval.

    By far the best cricket ground in the country.

    A large cadre of people at work (including yours truly) are on the cheap memberships and go there after work for the domestic games.
    I’ll be at Durham Riverside tomorrow for the T20 double header
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    Not necessarily, if a jury has clearly decided on not guilty it normally reaches a verdict within a few hours (and the defence asked for a swift and decisive not guilty).

  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,309
    Evening all :)

    From the local news desk and the Open Newham blog - fun and games in Newham Labour following the departure of the former MP for West Ham, Lyn Brown, on Tuesday. Some rumours she wanted to switch to Stratford & Bow but her early canvassing suggested Labour will have a fight on their hands (not sure how much credence I give this) so she decided to step down.

    James Asser, a Newham Councillor, is the Labour candidate for West Ham & Beckton.

    The Conservatives have so far not selected any candidates in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton or Stratford & Bow. The LDs have a candidate in Stratford & Bow but not in the other two seats.

    Sir Stephen Timms will stand again in East Ham and there are candidates from the Greens, Reform and the so-called Newham Independents (registration to be a party yet to be approved by the Electoral Commission so they are just calling themselves Independents). Said group are more likely to be working West Ham & Beckton where their candidate is Plaistow Councillor Sophia Naqvi.

    Three Newham Council vacancies are all subject to by elections on July 4th - Beckton, Maryland and Forest Gate North, the latter two are in the Stratford & Bow Constituency..
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    boulay said:

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Taz said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @mikeysmith
    STORY

    Rishi Sunak caught taking private helicopter flight home hours after gushing about train travel

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1796227395650744553

    @DPMcBride

    The little stool for getting on and off is very sweet.

    https://x.com/DPMcBride/status/1796231370454516182

    Nobody cares about Rishi's travel arrangements?
    Scott does.

    So nobody of any consequence.
    Will Scott finally stop his 8 year sulk and let go his bitterness once Election 24 is over? 🙏
    He’s too busy being a high achiever to waste time letting go of his bitterness. That’s time he could have spent in the corridors of power, making a difference, being successful. Better off reposting tweets.
    OTOH, he’ll have the satisfaction of being first to post the news about Starmer reapplying for EU membership…
    He will even fail at that. Someone who actually does something will hear it before him and post it here.

    It’s been the best possible opening for brilliant people like Scott to stand to be an MP and make a difference, stun us with his ideas, lead the country to a brighter future. Or just shitpost on PB.
    Breaking: Starmer has just applied for UK to re-join the EU!

    [Thought I'd get in first, for the record.]
    It's perfectly possible he tries that.

    No-one has a clue what he's going to do, or what will renege on, except the shit policies he really seems to care about - like eviscerating our education sector.
    Um ensuring that we have pushy parents trying to improve their local primary and secondary schools rather than paying to make a problem go away does to me seem like a good policy.

    Granted I know that you children won't be kept away from the working class but hey the working class now have the misfortune that.... (this last bit is a joke btw)..
    Any pushy parents no longer able to afford private school fees would almost certainly not touch a state school that was anything other than Outstanding rated on everything with a bargepole. So it really makes no difference to raising state standards except reducing places for children who might otherwise have got into an Outstanding school
    Again see my comment below regarding Durham Framwellgate. Basically a lot of the time you aren't going to get into the Outstanding school unless you up sticks and move next door to said school...
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    Trump jury dismissed for the evening..
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @kaitlancollins

    Judge Merchan says he is going to excuse the jury at 4:30 p.m. ET. They have not submitted any more notes since the third one this morning. That means deliberations are expected to resume tomorrow.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    edited May 30
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Breaking:

    Labour retains a 25 point lead over Tories despite Rishi Sunak’s policy blitz, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    Two of Rishi Sunak’s announcements - income tax cuts for pensioners & scrapping Micky mouse degrees - are popular with voters

    Compulsory national service for 18 year olds is backed by 57% of over 65s but just 18% of those aged between 18 and 24

    Just 6% of voters had a better view of Tories as a result of what they had seen and heard during the campaign so far, while 18% had a worse view

    Labour: 46 (-1)
    Conservatives: 21 (+1)
    Reform UK: 15 (+3)
    Lib Dems: 8 (-1)

    Failing some Donaldson-like revelations about SKS the polls just aren't going to shift are they?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico679 said:

    Only 90 minutes to go before jury deliberations end for the day .

    If there’s no verdict before then it would be a bad sign for the prosecution .

    FWIW it has always seemed to me that if all 12 are required for a guilty verdict this isn't going to happen.
    The jury is from Manhattan, if a jury won't convict Trump there of at least 1 of 38 charges he wouldn't be convicted anywhere in the US
    Are you suggesting that if Trump can make it there, he can make it anywhere?
    Yes, in 2020 Manhattan voted 86% for Biden
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    Breaking:

    Labour retains a 25 point lead over Tories despite Rishi Sunak’s policy blitz, Yougov poll for The Times finds

    Two of Rishi Sunak’s announcements - income tax cuts for pensioners & scrapping Micky mouse degrees - are popular with voters

    Compulsory national service for 18 year olds is backed by 57% of over 65s but just 18% of those aged between 18 and 24

    Just 6% of voters had a better view of Tories as a result of what they had seen and heard during the campaign so far, while 18% had a worse view

    Labour: 46 (-1)
    Conservatives: 21 (+1)
    Reform UK: 15 (+3)
    Lib Dems: 8 (-1)

    Ominous rise for Reform just before Farage had another prime time slot on the BBC.
This discussion has been closed.