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Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse – politicalbetting.com
Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse – politicalbetting.com
The Tories are pushing for six TV debates, but only a hard core of 4% of Britons have the same appetite% saying there should be [x] debatesNone: 13%One: 9%Two: 16%Three: 17%Four: 5%Five: 2%More than five: 4%https://t.co/2wTz1jpnN5 pic.twitter.com/CSzJcmS0CK
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It is true Sunak has low expectations at this point. I don't think he's all that bad at a soundbite, though the attempts to be more aggressive in the Tory leader debates didn't come across very well.
FirstSecond like Southampton (to sack their manager next season)I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.
I'd assume they wouldn't want to come back over the weekend, so if there's nothing by close of play tomorrow it's probably hung jury territory next week.
@mikeysmith
First rule of party ops: Don't make your guy look like a famously diminutive cartoon character.
Especially when you're banging on about Mickey Mouse degrees.
https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1796189022684881142
Especially after this
https://x.com/BrookesTimes/status/1796088285057389009
Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.
"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"
https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/1796174064714678501?s=61
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-election-hopeful-said-he-has-never-liked-constituency-he-wants-to-be-mp-for_uk_66577454e4b05212274ac615
Iain Dale made the comments in a podcast two years before revealing that he wanted to be the Conservative candidate in the constituency.
“I’ve never liked the place, still don’t and would happily live somewhere else.”
Only a week to resolve the matter of course. I cannot remember the last legal challenge around internal party processes, don't the courts not like to interfere if they can find an out?
Also, unfortunately for her Galloway's Gang already have a candidate.
I'm rather surprised the debates get 24%, tbh. 35% watching football seems about right. It's popular - but as Casino notes, not as universally popular as people who like it think it is.
Of course Sunak wants more because it’s the only way he can change the narrative. Starmer will be doing his carefully curated steady-as-she goes events all the way up to polling day. 90% of the time these debates go off without a gaffe, but there is the chance that they might not and that’s the gamble.
I was a bit surprised to see how the famous 1993 Canadian Federal Election actually unfolded, opinion polling-wise. I'd been under the impression the Prog Cons had been doomed all along, but the polling looked like the below:
(All done in one image due to the rules of the site).
First image was the story of the Parliament up until about the point the campaign was called. Up until then, it looked rather like "Classic swingback, albeit from a really deep and sustained low point."
And during the campaign, the Conservatives initially caught up and even led a few polls (something we don't expect here).
Then they went full Truss and into freefall, as shown in the complete image including the campaign period.
Obviously I don't expect that here (there are many things different), but it does illustrate how much worse things could get during a campaign period.
https://www.techdirt.com/2024/05/29/uk-mps-in-full-moral-panic-decide-to-ignore-the-research-push-for-dangerous-ban-on-phones-for-kids/
He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.
https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625
Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167
Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)
I watched it thinking yeah, he's actually doing a pretty good job here, expressing sympathy, acknowledging the problem. Then... it all goes wrong
Good grief. "Sorry about your mum but you got to learn what a brilliant chancellor I was, so swings and roundabouts I guess".
STARMER: You Broke the Law, your own laws, the laws you imposed on everyone else to keep us safe
SUNAK: Erm, actually I was there by accident actually and was working hard to keep you and your loved ones safe. And what about your curry? I won't take criticism from Sir Beer Korma
STARMER: What about my curry? I obeyed the law - as the police confirmed. You broke the law - as the police confirmed
SUNAK: You don't know what a woman is! You defended Terrorists! Your mum is Jimmy Saville! Stop being nasty!!!!
Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.
In any case we are only a month from the election so even on that chart Reform would need to be level with or have overtaken the Tories by now for second on the same timeframe
One does wonder if, say, Labour had been in office since Dec 2019 (let's say SKS won then and Corbyn and Brexit weren't a thing) how the two very black swans of Covid and Ukraine would have affected them?
My guess: partygate doesn't happen, and neither does the Truss debacle, but something else that totemises the pain and loss of lockdown and the cost of living crisis does, and that leads to Labour being heavily behind by now too - just as Western governments have suffered from it across the world.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/articles/clwwgl4n8w0o
"French Open brings in alcohol ban to stop unruly fans"
Bound to happen at some point and this total mess with selections could be it.
Anyway I’m in the best mood in history. Sergiu Hanganu is the most famous artisanal fruit liqueur maker in eastern Moldova and we have just tried 15 examples of his exceptional produce. In a cave cellar basically from Harry Potter. By the end I was speaking Moldovan
Factually correct but not overly diplomatic.
Without Covid, would the Tories still be as screwed as they are now?
Yes.
BoZo would still have defended Pincher
Truss would still have blown up
Richi would still be Richi
https://www.libdems.org.uk/fileadmin/groups/2_Federal_Party/Documents/From_NB/STYLEGUIDE_LD_DemandBetter_2018_v1.pdf
Earlier we made the smallest vine leaf rolls in the Dniester valley
For instance, Reform choosing to emphasise police brutality or horrible foreign fans picking on our brave, innocent boys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0AQN2MUQSU
I heartily recommend rural Moldova to any jaded PB travelers. It’s like going to inland Greece in about 1910. They have no foreign tourists ever
You will be treated like royalty. And a magnificent room overlooking the Dniester in a famous guest house with endless fruit liqueur will cost you £30
Almost double the second best (Netherlands).
I honestly had no idea that was the case at all.
The election was on October 25th 1993. 35 days prior was September 20th 1993.
There had been four polls since the election was called on September 8th 1993:
9/9/93: Lib 37, Con 35, Reform 10, NDP 8
9/9/93: Lib 33, Con 34, Reform 11, NDP 10
14/9/93: Lib 33, Con 36, Reform 11, NDP 8
16/9/93: Lib 35, Con 35, Reform 11, NDP 6
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/benefits-fraud-biggest-ever-britain-uk-jailed/
“Judge Aaronberg said the gang had been able to operate for so long because of “woefully inadequate checking systems” at the Department for Work and Pensions, which failed to identify “repeated use of the same names, addresses and telephone numbers”.
The fraud was only uncovered after a lone policeman in Sliven, Bulgaria, tipped off British authorities when he noticed that his city was suddenly awash with cash and criminals were “living like barons”.”
The winner is the person who gets the fewest likes on tik-tok and wins the prize of being next Lib Dem leader.
Hungary might be a good bet to get to the semis.
MiC have given us the funky tool to play with their VI to see what the effect is the more up the 'certain to vote' chain you go. Sweet.
The tl:dr is the more certain to vote it skews slightly tighter by a couple of %
You're still thinking about your mum, aren't you.
https://x.com/Exploding_Heads/status/1796201405583110312
No harm done.