Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 8 in General
Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse – politicalbetting.com

The Tories are pushing for six TV debates, but only a hard core of 4% of Britons have the same appetite% saying there should be [x] debatesNone: 13%One: 9%Two: 16%Three: 17%Four: 5%Five: 2%More than five: 4%https://t.co/2wTz1jpnN5 pic.twitter.com/CSzJcmS0CK

Read the full story here

«13456789

Comments

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    I saw some polls in the mid 20s, things coudl definitely get worse.

    It is true Sunak has low expectations at this point. I don't think he's all that bad at a soundbite, though the attempts to be more aggressive in the Tory leader debates didn't come across very well.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    edited May 30
    First Second like Southampton (to sack their manager next season)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,045
    edited May 30
    If the Tories are sensible they will push for as many head to heads between Rishi and Starmer as possible as Starmer has a lower lead on preferred PM polls than the overall Labour lead over the Tories. Rishi should at most allow only 1 debate with Tice, a multi party one with the SNP, Green, LD and Plaid leaders too so leftwing parties get as much coverage and otherwise just try and squeeze Reform by pushing a forced choice between him or Starmer as PM
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    FPT:
    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    From a very previous thread:

    There was some talk about right-wing conspiracy theorists and I don't think Carl Benjamin is one, he's just a bog-standard Faragist parrot, but another former UKIPper who does seem to have fallen off the reality train is David Kurten, ex London Assembly Member. Here he is chatting with Gareth "Son of David" Icke. https://youtu.be/PfNWIsjOaak

    I sometimes wonder what it must be like to be close family with someone often ridiculed or reviled. There's a natural family desire to defend or go easy on them perhaps even if you don't share their views, though clearly some will break from families over such things, but what about the ones who actually try to follow in the footsteps of the father, the Andrew Giulianis, the Don Jrs, apparently the Gareth Ickes?

    It puts me in mind of some those disgusting US 'preachers' who do nothing but get followers to give them money and live in mansions and buy private jets, a whole family business in some cases. How many of them believe what they are saying, and how many of their relatives who take part in it are just grifting or truly believe it?
    Very good point, I think Gareth must have been very young when his father went on the Wogan show and can't imagine school would have been that fun for him. He seems to be David's business manager, David gets massive audiences for his shows/lectures but he seems like David to be a true believer.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

    I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132
    We all know what really matters is the skips what come from the debates, which then get shared. That’s why they are so boring. Sunak is starting from such a low base not much can go wrong. Starmer could drop the Ashes, but he probably won’t.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    Apparently Richi's team let a real voter into his latest speech by mistake...
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are sensible they will push for as many head to heads between Rishi and Starmer as possible as Starmer has a lower lead on preferred PM polls than the overall Labour lead over the Tories. Rishi should at most allow only 1 debate with Tice, a multi party one with the SNP, Green, LD and Plaid leaders too so leftwing parties get as much coverage and otherwise just try and squeeze Reform by pushing a forced choice between him or Starmer as PM

    Why would Starmer agree to a free-for-all debate with all the other parties. The Tories can push all they like, if Starmer doesn't agree then there's no debate.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354

    nico679 said:

    Day 2 of the jury deliberations in the Trump trial .

    If they haven’t reached a verdict by the end of the day then I think it will end up a mistrial.

    Yesterday’s request by the jury to hear certain testimonies again was seen by some legal experts as bad news for Trump. We can only hope !

    The jury has today asked for several pages of the judges instructions to be read to them again.

    They seem to be very thorough in their proceedings. It's possible 11 of them are running through why a pro-Trump juror is not discharging their duty as a juror.
    Could be. Some of the more optimistic commentators have still suggested it could take until at least tomorrow regardless, in part due to the convoluted way evidence has to be requested and reviewed.

    I'd assume they wouldn't want to come back over the weekend, so if there's nothing by close of play tomorrow it's probably hung jury territory next week.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,844
    DM_Andy said:

    FPT:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    From a very previous thread:

    There was some talk about right-wing conspiracy theorists and I don't think Carl Benjamin is one, he's just a bog-standard Faragist parrot, but another former UKIPper who does seem to have fallen off the reality train is David Kurten, ex London Assembly Member. Here he is chatting with Gareth "Son of David" Icke. https://youtu.be/PfNWIsjOaak

    I sometimes wonder what it must be like to be close family with someone often ridiculed or reviled. There's a natural family desire to defend or go easy on them perhaps even if you don't share their views, though clearly some will break from families over such things, but what about the ones who actually try to follow in the footsteps of the father, the Andrew Giulianis, the Don Jrs, apparently the Gareth Ickes?

    It puts me in mind of some those disgusting US 'preachers' who do nothing but get followers to give them money and live in mansions and buy private jets, a whole family business in some cases. How many of them believe what they are saying, and how many of their relatives who take part in it are just grifting or truly believe it?
    Very good point, I think Gareth must have been very young when his father went on the Wogan show and can't imagine school would have been that fun for him. He seems to be David's business manager, David gets massive audiences for his shows/lectures but he seems like David to be a true believer.
    What about Mr Vennells and the Vennells Jrs. I wonder what is going through their minds.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    Oh dear

    @mikeysmith

    First rule of party ops: Don't make your guy look like a famously diminutive cartoon character.

    Especially when you're banging on about Mickey Mouse degrees.

    https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1796189022684881142

    Especially after this

    https://x.com/BrookesTimes/status/1796088285057389009
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    He's turned up in Milton Keynes to start with opposition to local house building.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    Still a week and a day until statement of persons nominated day, so time for any PBers still thinking about throwing their hat into the ring.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    TOPPING said:

    DM_Andy said:

    FPT:

    kle4 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    From a very previous thread:

    There was some talk about right-wing conspiracy theorists and I don't think Carl Benjamin is one, he's just a bog-standard Faragist parrot, but another former UKIPper who does seem to have fallen off the reality train is David Kurten, ex London Assembly Member. Here he is chatting with Gareth "Son of David" Icke. https://youtu.be/PfNWIsjOaak

    I sometimes wonder what it must be like to be close family with someone often ridiculed or reviled. There's a natural family desire to defend or go easy on them perhaps even if you don't share their views, though clearly some will break from families over such things, but what about the ones who actually try to follow in the footsteps of the father, the Andrew Giulianis, the Don Jrs, apparently the Gareth Ickes?

    It puts me in mind of some those disgusting US 'preachers' who do nothing but get followers to give them money and live in mansions and buy private jets, a whole family business in some cases. How many of them believe what they are saying, and how many of their relatives who take part in it are just grifting or truly believe it?
    Very good point, I think Gareth must have been very young when his father went on the Wogan show and can't imagine school would have been that fun for him. He seems to be David's business manager, David gets massive audiences for his shows/lectures but he seems like David to be a true believer.
    What about Mr Vennells and the Vennells Jrs. I wonder what is going through their minds.
    If I were one of the Vennell kids I would change my name like William Stuart-Houston did.

  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906

    A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

    I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

    What happened to prompt that first sentence?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    Cookie said:

    A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

    I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

    What happened to prompt that first sentence?
    Given the choice between watching election debates or an England or Scotland match at the Euros, 24% pick the debates, 35% the football, and 37% wouldn't watch either
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    FPT. Looks like Shaheen is going to try to sue her way onto the ballot.

    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/1796174064714678501?s=61
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    edited May 30
    ToryJim said:

    Looks like Shaheen is going to try to sue her way onto the ballot.

    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/1796174064714678501?s=61

    Well, nothing is stopping her getting on the ballot one way or another. It's getting on as the Labour candidate that's at issue.

    Only a week to resolve the matter of course. I cannot remember the last legal challenge around internal party processes, don't the courts not like to interfere if they can find an out?

    Also, unfortunately for her Galloway's Gang already have a candidate.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,289

    A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

    I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

    Couldn't care less about the football. Looking forward to Wimbledon tennis.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    DM_Andy said:

    Dangers of professionally broadcasting several hours of your opinions every week.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-election-hopeful-said-he-has-never-liked-constituency-he-wants-to-be-mp-for_uk_66577454e4b05212274ac615

    A Tory election hopeful who wants to be MP for Tunbridge Wells previously admitted he has “never liked” the town and would “happily live somewhere else” if he could.

    Iain Dale made the comments in a podcast two years before revealing that he wanted to be the Conservative candidate in the constituency.
    On a 2022 episode of his ‘For The Many’ podcast alongside former Labour home secretary Jacqui Smith, Dale said: “I have lived in Tunbridge Wells since 1997, slightly against my will in that my partner comes from Tunbridge Wells and can’t really imagine living anywhere else.

    “I’ve never liked the place, still don’t and would happily live somewhere else.”
    Better hope the non Tunbridge Wells parts of the seat feel similarly.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906
    edited May 30
    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

    I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

    What happened to prompt that first sentence?
    Given the choice between watching election debates or an England or Scotland match at the Euros, 24% pick the debates, 35% the football, and 37% wouldn't watch either
    Ah, I see!
    I'm rather surprised the debates get 24%, tbh. 35% watching football seems about right. It's popular - but as Casino notes, not as universally popular as people who like it think it is.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    edited May 30
    That’s a big spread of opinion regarding the debates, not sure much can really be read into that.

    Of course Sunak wants more because it’s the only way he can change the narrative. Starmer will be doing his carefully curated steady-as-she goes events all the way up to polling day. 90% of the time these debates go off without a gaffe, but there is the chance that they might not and that’s the gamble.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,045
    DM_Andy said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are sensible they will push for as many head to heads between Rishi and Starmer as possible as Starmer has a lower lead on preferred PM polls than the overall Labour lead over the Tories. Rishi should at most allow only 1 debate with Tice, a multi party one with the SNP, Green, LD and Plaid leaders too so leftwing parties get as much coverage and otherwise just try and squeeze Reform by pushing a forced choice between him or Starmer as PM

    Why would Starmer agree to a free-for-all debate with all the other parties. The Tories can push all they like, if Starmer doesn't agree then there's no debate.
    Then just head to heads with Starmer it will be then, which suits Rishi fine as he can say it was Sir Keir who blocked a multi party debate with Reform not him
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    DM_Andy said:

    Dangers of professionally broadcasting several hours of your opinions every week.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-election-hopeful-said-he-has-never-liked-constituency-he-wants-to-be-mp-for_uk_66577454e4b05212274ac615

    A Tory election hopeful who wants to be MP for Tunbridge Wells previously admitted he has “never liked” the town and would “happily live somewhere else” if he could.

    Iain Dale made the comments in a podcast two years before revealing that he wanted to be the Conservative candidate in the constituency.
    On a 2022 episode of his ‘For The Many’ podcast alongside former Labour home secretary Jacqui Smith, Dale said: “I have lived in Tunbridge Wells since 1997, slightly against my will in that my partner comes from Tunbridge Wells and can’t really imagine living anywhere else.

    “I’ve never liked the place, still don’t and would happily live somewhere else.”
    I guess we’ll put him down as Mr Disgusted, of Tunbridge Wells.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,043
    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

    I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

    What happened to prompt that first sentence?
    Given the choice between watching election debates or an England or Scotland match at the Euros, 24% pick the debates, 35% the football, and 37% wouldn't watch either
    Ah, I see!
    I'm rather surprised the debates get 24%, tbh. 35% watching football seems about right. It's popular - but as Casino notes, not as universally popular as people who like it think it is.
    OMG we are soon going to get all that "it's coming home" crap.

  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,043
    kle4 said:

    ToryJim said:

    Looks like Shaheen is going to try to sue her way onto the ballot.

    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/1796174064714678501?s=61

    Well, nothing is stopping her getting on the ballot one way or another. It's getting on as the Labour candidate that's at issue.

    Only a week to resolve the matter of course. I cannot remember the last legal challenge around internal party processes, don't the courts not like to interfere if they can find an out?

    Also, unfortunately for her Galloway's Gang already have a candidate.
    Was it when Labour was challenged on AWS's by some disgruntled candidates ?
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    kle4 said:

    ToryJim said:

    Looks like Shaheen is going to try to sue her way onto the ballot.

    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/1796174064714678501?s=61

    Well, nothing is stopping her getting on the ballot one way or another. It's getting on as the Labour candidate that's at issue.

    Only a week to resolve the matter of course. I cannot remember the last legal challenge around internal party processes, don't the courts not like to interfere if they can find an out?

    Also, unfortunately for her Galloway's Gang already have a candidate.
    It seems weird but also a tiny bit entitled. I’d imagine the courts would want to steer well clear. As you say she can stump up 500 notes and stand regardless. The issue is whether she can wrap herself in a party banner. It’s messy.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146
    I wonder where in the Lib Dem grid sending their leader to Germany to neck a pint in a football crowd is.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,045
    edited May 30
    DM_Andy said:

    Dangers of professionally broadcasting several hours of your opinions every week.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-election-hopeful-said-he-has-never-liked-constituency-he-wants-to-be-mp-for_uk_66577454e4b05212274ac615

    A Tory election hopeful who wants to be MP for Tunbridge Wells previously admitted he has “never liked” the town and would “happily live somewhere else” if he could.

    Iain Dale made the comments in a podcast two years before revealing that he wanted to be the Conservative candidate in the constituency.
    On a 2022 episode of his ‘For The Many’ podcast alongside former Labour home secretary Jacqui Smith, Dale said: “I have lived in Tunbridge Wells since 1997, slightly against my will in that my partner comes from Tunbridge Wells and can’t really imagine living anywhere else.

    “I’ve never liked the place, still don’t and would happily live somewhere else.”
    Dale cannot be certain of making the last 3 now and even if he did will likely lose to one of the other 2 Tory candidates. Given he last stood in North Norfolk in 2005 and produced an 8.5% swing to the LDs TW Tories may decide he is better off sticking to radio than trying again for Westminster
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    Cookie said:

    A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

    I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

    What happened to prompt that first sentence?
    The polling in the thread header on how many people intend to watch the matches.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    HYUFD said:

    DM_Andy said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are sensible they will push for as many head to heads between Rishi and Starmer as possible as Starmer has a lower lead on preferred PM polls than the overall Labour lead over the Tories. Rishi should at most allow only 1 debate with Tice, a multi party one with the SNP, Green, LD and Plaid leaders too so leftwing parties get as much coverage and otherwise just try and squeeze Reform by pushing a forced choice between him or Starmer as PM

    Why would Starmer agree to a free-for-all debate with all the other parties. The Tories can push all they like, if Starmer doesn't agree then there's no debate.
    Then just head to heads with Starmer it will be then, which suits Rishi fine as he can say it was Sir Keir who blocked a multi party debate with Reform not him
    and all Starmer has to say is that he's followed the precedent set by Boris Johnson in 2019 that there be only two debates and only between the two main candidates.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,045
    DM_Andy said:

    HYUFD said:

    DM_Andy said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are sensible they will push for as many head to heads between Rishi and Starmer as possible as Starmer has a lower lead on preferred PM polls than the overall Labour lead over the Tories. Rishi should at most allow only 1 debate with Tice, a multi party one with the SNP, Green, LD and Plaid leaders too so leftwing parties get as much coverage and otherwise just try and squeeze Reform by pushing a forced choice between him or Starmer as PM

    Why would Starmer agree to a free-for-all debate with all the other parties. The Tories can push all they like, if Starmer doesn't agree then there's no debate.
    Then just head to heads with Starmer it will be then, which suits Rishi fine as he can say it was Sir Keir who blocked a multi party debate with Reform not him
    and all Starmer has to say is that he's followed the precedent set by Boris Johnson in 2019 that there be only two debates and only between the two main candidates.

    Still suits Rishi, given as I said the preferred PM polls are closer than the party voteshare polls
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    Taz said:

    kle4 said:

    ToryJim said:

    Looks like Shaheen is going to try to sue her way onto the ballot.

    https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/1796174064714678501?s=61

    Well, nothing is stopping her getting on the ballot one way or another. It's getting on as the Labour candidate that's at issue.

    Only a week to resolve the matter of course. I cannot remember the last legal challenge around internal party processes, don't the courts not like to interfere if they can find an out?

    Also, unfortunately for her Galloway's Gang already have a candidate.
    Was it when Labour was challenged on AWS's by some disgruntled candidates ?
    I was looking that up and found this delightful quote:
    Phil Woolas, secretary of the Brentford and Isleworth constituency party, to which Mr Jepson applied, said: "We would be more likely to have Margaret Thatcher to Christmas dinner than to select him."

  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    edited May 30
    deleted, Vanilla shithousery
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063

    Things can always get worse, so Sunak should feel somewhat cheered if they don't.

    I was a bit surprised to see how the famous 1993 Canadian Federal Election actually unfolded, opinion polling-wise. I'd been under the impression the Prog Cons had been doomed all along, but the polling looked like the below:



    (All done in one image due to the rules of the site).

    First image was the story of the Parliament up until about the point the campaign was called. Up until then, it looked rather like "Classic swingback, albeit from a really deep and sustained low point."

    And during the campaign, the Conservatives initially caught up and even led a few polls (something we don't expect here).

    Then they went full Truss and into freefall, as shown in the complete image including the campaign period.

    Obviously I don't expect that here (there are many things different), but it does illustrate how much worse things could get during a campaign period.

    The Canadians have a culture of wildly zig-zagging their vote.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,670

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

    He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

    He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
    Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

    Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

    https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625
  • Options
    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 700
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

    He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
    Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

    Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

    https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625
    I shudder when I say this, but I'm actually beginning to feel a little bit sorry for him. He is so transparently out of his depth - both politically and emotionally.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,670
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

    He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
    Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

    Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

    https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625
    I think the tweet's summary exaggerates how bad Sunak's response is... but it wasn't good. He's not a natural at this!
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,249
    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    And the response... Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

    Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628
    Taz said:

    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

    I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

    What happened to prompt that first sentence?
    Given the choice between watching election debates or an England or Scotland match at the Euros, 24% pick the debates, 35% the football, and 37% wouldn't watch either
    Ah, I see!
    I'm rather surprised the debates get 24%, tbh. 35% watching football seems about right. It's popular - but as Casino notes, not as universally popular as people who like it think it is.
    OMG we are soon going to get all that "it's coming home" crap.

    It’s fine, in fact it’s nice to hear the Germans sing something other than The Horst Wessel song and Lili Marleen.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,319

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    "Shit happens" is usually the best response.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    edited May 30

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    And the response... Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

    Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)
    Yeah, he was genuinely ambushed by cake.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

    He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
    Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

    Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

    https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625
    Oh god.

    I watched it thinking yeah, he's actually doing a pretty good job here, expressing sympathy, acknowledging the problem. Then... it all goes wrong
  • Options
    JameiJamei Posts: 53
    I predict Sunak will try to be quick and witty and bombard Starmer with lots of rehearsed gotchas but will end up just coming across as an annoying schoolboy.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,670

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    And the response... Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

    Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)
    Watch the clip, people. He does begin by acknowledging the man's loss and what it must've been like. That bit is OK. Then, he descends into this awkward explanation.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    And the response... Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

    Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)
    Yeah, he was genuine ly ambushed by cake.
    Johnson's cakeism was always going to claim a victim.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,993
    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Epic Fail. Why didn't the Party Goon get the text message to simply stand in front of her like yesterday?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

    He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
    Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

    Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

    https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625
    Oh god.

    I watched it thinking yeah, he's actually doing a pretty good job here, expressing sympathy, acknowledging the problem. Then... it all goes wrong
    Yep: I'm sorry your mum died alone. But it wasn't all bad, that was when you first got to know me! :smiley:
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,687
    Chameleon said:

    I wonder where in the Lib Dem grid sending their leader to Germany to neck a pint in a football crowd is.

    I hope Davey will manage something more lairy than that. Yellow smoke of course.


  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @sharonodea

    Good grief. "Sorry about your mum but you got to learn what a brilliant chancellor I was, so swings and roundabouts I guess".
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,978
    edited May 30

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

    He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
    Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

    Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

    https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625
    I think the tweet's summary exaggerates how bad Sunak's response is... but it wasn't good. He's not a natural at this!
    It is the last sentence, "it's probably at that time that you got to know me as chancellor" that is particularly bad here. To me, he is opening and closing his mouth and wearing a slightly pained and embarrassed expression. I wouldn't categorise it as smiling.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    And the response... Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

    Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)
    Yeah, he was genuinely ambushed by cake.
    Bill Clinton he 'aint. Just cannot do the retail side of politics, in particular showing empathy or emotion to people's problems or lives.

  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,993

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    And the response... Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

    Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)
    This is absolutely going to come up during the debates:
    STARMER: You Broke the Law, your own laws, the laws you imposed on everyone else to keep us safe
    SUNAK: Erm, actually I was there by accident actually and was working hard to keep you and your loved ones safe. And what about your curry? I won't take criticism from Sir Beer Korma
    STARMER: What about my curry? I obeyed the law - as the police confirmed. You broke the law - as the police confirmed
    SUNAK: You don't know what a woman is! You defended Terrorists! Your mum is Jimmy Saville! Stop being nasty!!!!
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,125
    It's quite cheering in a way to note that the plurality of Brits given a choice between leader debates and a significant Euros match will watch neither and find something better to do.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    That was the genuine Richi on display.

    Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,045

    Things can always get worse, so Sunak should feel somewhat cheered if they don't.

    I was a bit surprised to see how the famous 1993 Canadian Federal Election actually unfolded, opinion polling-wise. I'd been under the impression the Prog Cons had been doomed all along, but the polling looked like the below:



    (All done in one image due to the rules of the site).

    First image was the story of the Parliament up until about the point the campaign was called. Up until then, it looked rather like "Classic swingback, albeit from a really deep and sustained low point."

    And during the campaign, the Conservatives initially caught up and even led a few polls (something we don't expect here).

    Then they went full Truss and into freefall, as shown in the complete image including the campaign period.

    Obviously I don't expect that here (there are many things different), but it does illustrate how much worse things could get during a campaign period.

    The PCs got a brief bounce in June 1993 when Kim Campbell replaced Mulroney as their PM and leader but they then collapsed again.

    In any case we are only a month from the election so even on that chart Reform would need to be level with or have overtaken the Tories by now for second on the same timeframe
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

    He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
    Yes, there is that.

    One does wonder if, say, Labour had been in office since Dec 2019 (let's say SKS won then and Corbyn and Brexit weren't a thing) how the two very black swans of Covid and Ukraine would have affected them?

    My guess: partygate doesn't happen, and neither does the Truss debacle, but something else that totemises the pain and loss of lockdown and the cost of living crisis does, and that leads to Labour being heavily behind by now too - just as Western governments have suffered from it across the world.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    Euston is such a shithole of a station.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    TUD's post (and I'm not replying because jesus fucking christ) got me wondering. If there's violence from England fans (or Scottish fans, but they won't be there as long), how will it play politically? Any predictable effect?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,074
    Scott_xP said:

    That was the genuine Richi on display.

    Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.

    "I'm sorry you lost your mum to covid, but on the bright side, it was thanks to covid that you got to know me."
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,978
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    "Shit happens" is usually the best response.
    I think as a response to the man's Mum's death that would have been considerably worse.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

    He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
    Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

    Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

    https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625
    I think the tweet's summary exaggerates how bad Sunak's response is... but it wasn't good. He's not a natural at this!
    It is the last sentence, "it's probably at that time that you got to know me as chancellor" that is particularly bad here. To me, he is opening and closing his mouth and wearing a slightly pained and embarrassed expression. I wouldn't categorise it as smiling.
    As I note in the header During PMQs Sunak often ends up displaying the anguish of a man with a wasp trapped under his foreskin
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,423

    Chameleon said:

    I wonder where in the Lib Dem grid sending their leader to Germany to neck a pint in a football crowd is.

    I hope Davey will manage something more lairy than that. Yellow smoke of course.


    Even the french are now getting into loutish behaviour:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/articles/clwwgl4n8w0o

    "French Open brings in alcohol ban to stop unruly fans"
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290
    Are we entering 'wobbly weekend' for Starmer?

    Bound to happen at some point and this total mess with selections could be it.

  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,125
    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

    I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

    What happened to prompt that first sentence?
    Given the choice between watching election debates or an England or Scotland match at the Euros, 24% pick the debates, 35% the football, and 37% wouldn't watch either
    Ah, I see!
    I'm rather surprised the debates get 24%, tbh. 35% watching football seems about right. It's popular - but as Casino notes, not as universally popular as people who like it think it is.
    The majority of the population have no interest in football whatsoever.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,045
    Farooq said:

    TUD's post (and I'm not replying because jesus fucking christ) got me wondering. If there's violence from England fans (or Scottish fans, but they won't be there as long), how will it play politically? Any predictable effect?

    Not much as most of those involved will probably be voting Reform anyway and diehard Farage lovers!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,137
    Are we allowed to post any photos at all? I forget

    Anyway I’m in the best mood in history. Sergiu Hanganu is the most famous artisanal fruit liqueur maker in eastern Moldova and we have just tried 15 examples of his exceptional produce. In a cave cellar basically from Harry Potter. By the end I was speaking Moldovan


  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628
    Pro_Rata said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    "Shit happens" is usually the best response.
    I think as a response to the man's Mum's death that would have been considerably worse.
    Not as bad as “I think you’ll find that your mum would have died alone whether I was at a party or not during Covid.”

    Factually correct but not overly diplomatic.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    I think Sunak's answer was fine. I suspect that sort of thing might get him some sympathy at the debate.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356

    My guess: partygate doesn't happen, and neither does the Truss debacle, but something else that totemises the pain and loss of lockdown and the cost of living crisis does, and that leads to Labour being heavily behind by now too - just as Western governments have suffered from it across the world.

    That's an interesting question, but it's even more interesting the other way round.

    Without Covid, would the Tories still be as screwed as they are now?

    Yes.

    BoZo would still have defended Pincher

    Truss would still have blown up

    Richi would still be Richi
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    edited May 30

    Chameleon said:

    I wonder where in the Lib Dem grid sending their leader to Germany to neck a pint in a football crowd is.

    I hope Davey will manage something more lairy than that. Yellow smoke of course.


    *orange* smoke would be needed, to my eye:

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/fileadmin/groups/2_Federal_Party/Documents/From_NB/STYLEGUIDE_LD_DemandBetter_2018_v1.pdf
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,074
    boulay said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    "Shit happens" is usually the best response.
    I think as a response to the man's Mum's death that would have been considerably worse.
    Not as bad as “I think you’ll find that your mum would have died alone whether I was at a party or not during Covid.”

    Factually correct but not overly diplomatic.
    But incomplete. If the government hadn't imposed a lockdown then she wouldn't have been alone.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,137
    This guy is a fucking DUDE. That “cherry spirit” he is holding is 78% alcohol. And we drank it

    Earlier we made the smallest vine leaf rolls in the Dniester valley
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,670

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    And the response... Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

    Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)
    This is absolutely going to come up during the debates:
    STARMER: You Broke the Law, your own laws, the laws you imposed on everyone else to keep us safe
    SUNAK: Erm, actually I was there by accident actually and was working hard to keep you and your loved ones safe. And what about your curry? I won't take criticism from Sir Beer Korma
    STARMER: What about my curry? I obeyed the law - as the police confirmed. You broke the law - as the police confirmed
    SUNAK: You don't know what a woman is! You defended Terrorists! Your mum is Jimmy Saville! Stop being nasty!!!!
    Remember Sunak then broke the law a second time, attracting a second fixed penalty notice, for not wearing his seatbelt.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,138
    Scott_xP said:

    That was the genuine Richi on display.

    Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.

    "Bad news about your Mum dying ... but the good news is that you got to know me". You would not want to be his comms adviser, would you?

  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,978

    Things can always get worse, so Sunak should feel somewhat cheered if they don't.

    I was a bit surprised to see how the famous 1993 Canadian Federal Election actually unfolded, opinion polling-wise. I'd been under the impression the Prog Cons had been doomed all along, but the polling looked like the below:



    (All done in one image due to the rules of the site).

    First image was the story of the Parliament up until about the point the campaign was called. Up until then, it looked rather like "Classic swingback, albeit from a really deep and sustained low point."

    And during the campaign, the Conservatives initially caught up and even led a few polls (something we don't expect here).

    Then they went full Truss and into freefall, as shown in the complete image including the campaign period.

    Obviously I don't expect that here (there are many things different), but it does illustrate how much worse things could get during a campaign period.

    I had this down as a possible scenario if Sunak had been defenestrated and Mordaunt took over (the recovery and the slump), but Sunak fighting the election is going to be somewhat steadier.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    TUD's post (and I'm not replying because jesus fucking christ) got me wondering. If there's violence from England fans (or Scottish fans, but they won't be there as long), how will it play politically? Any predictable effect?

    Not much as most of those involved will probably be voting Reform anyway and diehard Farage lovers!
    I'm not talking about who they vote for, I'm talking about how people will respond at home to such scenes and whether politicians might try to capitalise on such reactions.

    For instance, Reform choosing to emphasise police brutality or horrible foreign fans picking on our brave, innocent boys.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,034
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    "Shit happens" is usually the best response.
    If this is a deliberate reference to an iconic Australian interview moment then bravo.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0AQN2MUQSU
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    Farooq said:

    TUD's post (and I'm not replying because jesus fucking christ) got me wondering. If there's violence from England fans (or Scottish fans, but they won't be there as long), how will it play politically? Any predictable effect?

    On past experience I'd pay a lot more attention to wokehunting politicians than fans with flares up their rectums.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290
    Leon said:

    Are we allowed to post any photos at all? I forget

    Anyway I’m in the best mood in history. Sergiu Hanganu is the most famous artisanal fruit liqueur maker in eastern Moldova and we have just tried 15 examples of his exceptional produce. In a cave cellar basically from Harry Potter. By the end I was speaking Moldovan


    If it's like Serbian fruit brandies then you are in very serious trouble my friend. LOL.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290
    edited May 30

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    And the response... Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

    Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)
    This is absolutely going to come up during the debates:
    STARMER: You Broke the Law, your own laws, the laws you imposed on everyone else to keep us safe
    SUNAK: Erm, actually I was there by accident actually and was working hard to keep you and your loved ones safe. And what about your curry? I won't take criticism from Sir Beer Korma
    STARMER: What about my curry? I obeyed the law - as the police confirmed. You broke the law - as the police confirmed
    SUNAK: You don't know what a woman is! You defended Terrorists! Your mum is Jimmy Saville! Stop being nasty!!!!
    You supported Jezza Corbyn to be prime minister etc etc...

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,137
    This trip is A GAS

    I heartily recommend rural Moldova to any jaded PB travelers. It’s like going to inland Greece in about 1910. They have no foreign tourists ever

    You will be treated like royalty. And a magnificent room overlooking the Dniester in a famous guest house with endless fruit liqueur will cost you £30
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

    I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

    What happened to prompt that first sentence?
    Given the choice between watching election debates or an England or Scotland match at the Euros, 24% pick the debates, 35% the football, and 37% wouldn't watch either
    Ah, I see!
    I'm rather surprised the debates get 24%, tbh. 35% watching football seems about right. It's popular - but as Casino notes, not as universally popular as people who like it think it is.
    The majority of the population have no interest in football whatsoever.
    Was reading today that Scottish football attendance across top four divisions was by far the highest per Capita in Europe.
    Almost double the second best (Netherlands).
    I honestly had no idea that was the case at all.
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,857
    HYUFD said:

    Things can always get worse, so Sunak should feel somewhat cheered if they don't.

    I was a bit surprised to see how the famous 1993 Canadian Federal Election actually unfolded, opinion polling-wise. I'd been under the impression the Prog Cons had been doomed all along, but the polling looked like the below:



    (All done in one image due to the rules of the site).

    First image was the story of the Parliament up until about the point the campaign was called. Up until then, it looked rather like "Classic swingback, albeit from a really deep and sustained low point."

    And during the campaign, the Conservatives initially caught up and even led a few polls (something we don't expect here).

    Then they went full Truss and into freefall, as shown in the complete image including the campaign period.

    Obviously I don't expect that here (there are many things different), but it does illustrate how much worse things could get during a campaign period.

    The PCs got a brief bounce in June 1993 when Kim Campbell replaced Mulroney as their PM and leader but they then collapsed again.

    In any case we are only a month from the election so even on that chart Reform would need to be level with or have overtaken the Tories by now for second on the same timeframe
    Um, on that graph, we're at the point in the campaign just after the point where the Progressive Conservatives had briefly overtaken the Liberals.

    The election was on October 25th 1993. 35 days prior was September 20th 1993.
    There had been four polls since the election was called on September 8th 1993:

    9/9/93: Lib 37, Con 35, Reform 10, NDP 8
    9/9/93: Lib 33, Con 34, Reform 11, NDP 10
    14/9/93: Lib 33, Con 36, Reform 11, NDP 8
    16/9/93: Lib 35, Con 35, Reform 11, NDP 6
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited May 30
    Five Bulgarians jailed for “over £50m” of UK benefit fraud. That no-one at DWP noticed, despite names, addresses, and phone numbers, being repeatedly recycled.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/30/benefits-fraud-biggest-ever-britain-uk-jailed/

    Judge Aaronberg said the gang had been able to operate for so long because of “woefully inadequate checking systems” at the Department for Work and Pensions, which failed to identify “repeated use of the same names, addresses and telephone numbers”.

    The fraud was only uncovered after a lone policeman in Sliven, Bulgaria, tipped off British authorities when he noticed that his city was suddenly awash with cash and criminals were “living like barons”.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,978
    I know social media super intensifies all this stuff, but it is like Gillian Duffy happens daily these days.
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    edited May 30
    tlg86 said:

    I think Sunak's answer was fine. I suspect that sort of thing might get him some sympathy at the debate.

    Scott is so angry about it he is going to throw the phone down.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    boulay said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    "Shit happens" is usually the best response.
    I think as a response to the man's Mum's death that would have been considerably worse.
    Not as bad as “I think you’ll find that your mum would have died alone whether I was at a party or not during Covid.”

    Factually correct but not overly diplomatic.
    boulay said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    "Shit happens" is usually the best response.
    I think as a response to the man's Mum's death that would have been considerably worse.
    Not as bad as “I think you’ll find that your mum would have died alone whether I was at a party or not during Covid.”

    Factually correct but not overly diplomatic.
    "At least you got to inherit" may have been worse.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    TUD's post (and I'm not replying because jesus fucking christ) got me wondering. If there's violence from England fans (or Scottish fans, but they won't be there as long), how will it play politically? Any predictable effect?

    Not much as most of those involved will probably be voting Reform anyway and diehard Farage lovers!
    I'm not talking about who they vote for, I'm talking about how people will respond at home to such scenes and whether politicians might try to capitalise on such reactions.

    For instance, Reform choosing to emphasise police brutality or horrible foreign fans picking on our brave, innocent boys.
    I doubt many of our young hoodlums will be out in Germany as they will be spending the summer doing the new thing, the Ed Davey challenge where everyone gets absolutely shitfaced and films themselves falling off things and trying to ride various contraptions all whilst keeping a silly grin on their faces.

    The winner is the person who gets the fewest likes on tik-tok and wins the prize of being next Lib Dem leader.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    Betting post, and re the footy - England as ever are horrible value (3/1 favourites, ha); for me Germany are probably slightly underpriced, given they will have a decent team and are on home turf.

    Hungary might be a good bet to get to the semis.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,125
    edited May 30
    https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1796196422901010731?s=19
    MiC have given us the funky tool to play with their VI to see what the effect is the more up the 'certain to vote' chain you go. Sweet.
    The tl:dr is the more certain to vote it skews slightly tighter by a couple of %
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,138
    Sorry about your mum. But on the plus side that was the period you got to know me as chancellor.

    You're still thinking about your mum, aren't you.

    https://x.com/Exploding_Heads/status/1796201405583110312
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042
    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    That was the genuine Richi on display.

    Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.

    "Bad news about your Mum dying ... but the good news is that you got to know me". You would not want to be his comms adviser, would you?

    Fortunately the mainstream media will casually ignore Sunak's gaffe and report Starmer's vicious handling of poor PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

    No harm done.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    Selebian said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LizzyBuchan

    Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

    "How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

    Was Partygate Sunak's fault?
    He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

    He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.
    Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

    Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

    https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625
    Oh god.

    I watched it thinking yeah, he's actually doing a pretty good job here, expressing sympathy, acknowledging the problem. Then... it all goes wrong
    Yep: I'm sorry your mum died alone. But it wasn't all bad, that was when you first got to know me! :smiley:
    Proper David Brent “You’re still thinking about the bad news, aren’t you?” about that
This discussion has been closed.