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Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Trump is officially a convicted felon...

    Count 2 - 6 guilty

    7 - 10....
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    guilty....
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    TRUMP GUILTY!!!!!!

    All juries find Trump guilty, it seems

    GET THE FUCK IN!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    11 - 19 guilty.....
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146

    Lock him up!

    The temptation for Hillary to tweet that will be huge.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Trump guilty on all 34 counts.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    They’ll be dancing in the streets of Kyiv tonight.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    Legendary journalists James Fallows

    OH MY GOD.
    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1796287347354370529

    (Guilty in count 1...)
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    20 - 34 guilty. On all charges he faced.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Surely they'll find him guilty on all? It came much as a package.

    And of course Trump will say something stupid now and make it much worse for himself.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,743
    Found guilty on ALL charges!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    GIN1138 said:

    DO SOMETHING!!!!!

    GAME OVER!!!
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    PB well ahead of BBC Live as ever
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    HYUFD said:

    Well they got Al Capone on tax evasion in the end, looks like they got Trump on payments to a porn star

    Falsifying accounts.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605

    From the White House to the Big House.

    :D
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    pm215pm215 Posts: 1,027
    Wow. That's two big political events this month where my predictions were totally wrong (I expected an autumn UK election and a hung jury in the Trump trial). Still just time to fit in a third :-)
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224
    Yay.

    Betting, 2.5 from 1.8.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    ydoethur said:

    TRUMP GUILTY!!!!!!

    All juries find Trump guilty, it seems

    GET THE FUCK IN!
    ... JAIL.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,673
    Yesssss! Fxck Trump . Finally he’s held to account .
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Told yer!
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,962
    Prepare for Trump's poll numbers to go up now
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    I know he believes it won't affect his nutty Nazi base.

    But surely even Trump can't ride this out politically.

    This is a disaster for him.

    Doesn't even look like they were particularly in doubt.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    Nobody has ever seen a President as Guilty as this...
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    This merely makes more likely

    1. A Trump win

    And/or

    2. American Civil War
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    MAGA-maniac verdict = Twelve Angry Libtards
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,546
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    TRUMP GUILTY!!!!!!

    All juries find Trump guilty, it seems

    GET THE FUCK IN!
    ... JAIL.
    First offender, not completely sure he will get the jail.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Republican Convention will be fun.

    "And now we go over to the nominated candidate, live from Riker's Island...."
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    ydoethur said:

    Surely they'll find him guilty on all? It came much as a package.

    And of course Trump will say something stupid now and make it much worse for himself.

    All 34 counts.



    CROOKED JUDGE !!!
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    Get the fuck in there!!!! New York
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    NYT - Donald J. Trump was just convicted of all 34 counts of falsifying business records. He is the first American president to become a felon.

    Although, of course, on a technicality, Nixon admitted a felony in accepting a pardon.

    'Slightly more dishonest than Richard Nixon' is hardly a good strapline though.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    Thoughts and prayers with Nigel Farage.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Well this should liven up the Trump Biden debates.

    He will have an epic meltdown.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    Told yer!

    You did. But I did not dare to hope.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    Well no matter how bad things go on the 4th, at least we won't almost elect someone found guilty at a crown court.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    Donald J. Trump was just convicted of all 34 counts of falsifying business records. He is the first American president to become a felon.

    NY Times.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Leon said:

    This merely makes more likely

    1. A Trump win

    And/or

    2. American Civil War

    Taking it all calmly as usual, I see :D
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    Still only reporting first eleven counts on R4.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    TRUMP GUILTY!!!!!!

    All juries find Trump guilty, it seems

    GET THE FUCK IN!
    ... JAIL.
    The lawyer on Sky is saying it is unlikely he will be jailed
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    Leon said:

    This merely makes more likely

    1. A Trump win

    And/or

    2. American Civil War

    Sure.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    He is bigly a felon.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708
    Chameleon said:

    Well no matter how bad things go on the 4th, at least we won't almost elect someone found guilty at a crown court.

    Carefully worded.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    Foxy said:

    Well this should liven up the Trump Biden debates.

    He will have an epic meltdown.

    Let's hope it doesn't increase his vote. That's gotta be a worry the way US voters seem to be losing the plot and leaving the Enlightenment behind.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    16% of Americans when polled said being a felon would be disqualifying as President.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    dixiedean said:

    Thoughts and prayers with Nigel Farage.

    And TheKitchenCabinet.

    He'll have not so much a screw loose as be right round the twist at this.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    TRUMP GUILTY!!!!!!

    All juries find Trump guilty, it seems

    GET THE FUCK IN!
    ... JAIL.
    First offender, not completely sure he will get the jail.
    Correction - serial, lifetime offender who just got caught, indicted, tried & convicted for first time.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224
    Leon said:

    This merely makes more likely

    1. A Trump win

    And/or

    2. American Civil War

    Aw didums, he's sulking.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    TRUMP GUILTY!!!!!!

    All juries find Trump guilty, it seems

    GET THE FUCK IN!
    ... JAIL.
    First offender, not completely sure he will get the jail.
    Indeed.

    I was merely setting out an aspiration.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    edited May 30
    Chameleon said:

    Well no matter how bad things go on the 4th, at least we won't almost elect someone found guilty at a crown court.

    Well we have had a former party leader who faced a charge of conspiracy and incitement to murder trial at the Old Bailey before, ex Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe in 1979. Even if he was acquitted
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    "Donald Trump has a deep frown on his face.."
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    If it is a fine - how much might it be?

    Obviously I'm hoping they'll lock the Fascist tosser up, but assuming they don't?
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708
    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Well no matter how bad things go on the 4th, at least we won't almost elect someone found guilty at a crown court.

    Well we have had a former party leader who faced a charge of conspiracy and incitement to murder trial at the Old Bailey before, ex Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe in 1979. Even if he was acquitted
    But he wasn't *the* Liberal leader then ...
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    This merely makes more likely

    1. A Trump win

    And/or

    2. American Civil War

    Taking it all calmly as usual, I see :D
    Let us see how this unfolds. I’m not sure events will necessarily evolve as the PB Progressives desire. But who knows
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    TRUMP GUILTY!!!!!!

    All juries find Trump guilty, it seems

    GET THE FUCK IN!
    ... JAIL.
    First offender, not completely sure he will get the jail.
    He cheated democracy. Would he have been President if the Stormy Daniel affair had been known? It was close, so must be a reasonable chance not.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    nico679 said:

    Yesssss! Fxck Trump . Finally he’s held to account .

    Well, his fucking is what's screwed him. Appropriate.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    Leon said:

    This merely makes more likely

    1. A Trump win

    And/or

    2. American Civil War

    No it probably means enough Independents now go back to Biden for him to be relected.

    Though yes too 40-45% of Americans, maybe more, will still vote for Trump in November even with this verdict
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    .
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    TRUMP GUILTY!!!!!!

    All juries find Trump guilty, it seems

    GET THE FUCK IN!
    ... JAIL.
    First offender, not completely sure he will get the jail.
    It’s not the sort of offence that would usually attract jail time.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Well this should liven up the Trump Biden debates.

    He will have an epic meltdown.

    Not sure they'll hear him on those little payphones behind plexiglass.
    He will look like the Tango advert in his orange jump suit.

    When do we get the sentence?

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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,146
    Nigelb said:

    "Donald Trump has a deep frown on his face.."

    Contemplating how fucked he is in every sense especially if he gets time in a penitentiary
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224

    Foxy said:

    Well this should liven up the Trump Biden debates.

    He will have an epic meltdown.

    Let's hope it doesn't increase his vote. That's gotta be a worry the way US voters seem to be losing the plot and leaving the Enlightenment behind.
    It won't increase his vote. But will it start the unravelling? I hope and think it will.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    Leon said:

    This merely makes more likely

    1. A Trump win

    And/or

    2. American Civil War

    NY Times now using their BIGGLY headline font.

    So - yeh - you are probably right. :smiley:

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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    ydoethur said:

    I know he believes it won't affect his nutty Nazi base.

    But surely even Trump can't ride this out politically.

    This is a disaster for him.

    Doesn't even look like they were particularly in doubt.

    It’s New York FFS
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Sentencing July 11th.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    CBS talking heads -sentencing at judges discretion - ranges from probation to imprisonment - but it will be appealed which could take years. Trump's behaviour during the trial and lack of remorse will be factors judge will bear in mind.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    I'm on font watch now.

    Telegraph is now twice the size of NY Times.

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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @MalcH

    Aberdeenshire golf resort owner found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records in NY court.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Fuck me, how useless are Trump's lawyers?

    What was he thinking with that motion to dismiss?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326

    megasaur said:

    Film review

    Just watched Civil War on my 75 incher (fnaar) and it is the best film of the century. Pulp Fiction, Private Ryan good.


    Is it as quotable as Aliens, though?
    "I need a quote"
    "Don't let them kill me"
    "Yeah...that'll do"
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    RIGGED!
    DISGRACEFUL!
    CORRUPT JUDGE!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    Trump emerges from court, calls the case corrupt, he is innocent and the real verdict will be in November when he fights for his country and the constitution. Calls it rigged and created by the Biden administration
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    Rigged says Trump.

    Soros was backing this.

    Blimey
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    Sentence on July 11th.
    6pm.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    HYUFD said:

    Trump emerges from court, calls the case corrupt, he is innocent and the real verdict will be in November when he fights for his country and the constitution. Calls it rigged and created by the Biden administration

    Blames Soros.

    Pure anti-jew Hungarian crap spewing out of him.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, how useless are Trump's lawyers?

    What was he thinking with that motion to dismiss?

    Perhaps, "I really want Trump to keep paying his legal bills AND I really do NOT want to be lynched by a mob of MAGA-maniacs who believe I'm an under-cover agent for the Anti-Trump Conspiracy."
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    ydoethur said:

    Fuck me, how useless are Trump's lawyers?

    What was he thinking with that motion to dismiss?

    Trump does have spectacularly bad lawyers, but that’s what happens when you’re unreliable when it comes to paying your lawyers, and won’t follow their instructions.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    From before the verdict, from a Never-Trumper - after years of preparing media and supporters for this outcome, it won't end it, even if some small number do change their minds.

    Politically, Trump will be helped by the NYC verdict, no matter what the verdict is. To all you Democrats breathlessly following this trial, this trial & verdict won’t defeat Trump for you. Not at all. It’s on Biden to make the case against Trump, and it’s on you to get people to vote for Biden. You/Biden are going to have to defeat Trump the good old fashioned way. A guilty verdict in this trial ain’t gonna do it for you.
    https://nitter.poast.org/WalshFreedom/status/1795436894387413080#m
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Trump had no defence to run.

    He would be equally fucked at the other trials if they had been allowed to run at a usual pace, rather than blocked and delayed at every turn.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Farooq said:

    Does someone want to give Leon a wee hug?

    Lol I’m in fucking Moldova staring at transnistria

    I’ve traveled widely around America in recent years, meeting sane Trumpites. They do exist and they believe the system is out to get him

    Is this gonna dissuade them?

    I dunno. I honestly dunno. But I do not share the confidence of PB that THIS IS OBVS THE END OF EVIL DONALD
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    America's second civil war will be fought over an accounting error.


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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    edited May 30

    Sentencing July 11th.

    FOUR days before the GOP convention is due to nominate him as their candidate for president, popcorn time!
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    edited May 30
    HYUFD said:

    Sentencing July 11th.

    FOUR days before the GOP convention is due to nominate him as their candidate for president, popcorn time!
    Isn't a few days before convention the usual time to announce the Veep choice generally?

    LOL.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Sentencing July 11th.

    4 days before the Republican Convention.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224
    CatMan said:

    Prepare for Trump's poll numbers to go up now

    Let's see. I doubt it. It's the start of the skids, I think.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    Sentencing July 11th.

    Assuming it gets that far. @Leon has a point - you want a civil war, you point out that their messiah is a crook.

    But, and its a fundamental but - he IS a crook. So-called patriots will be foaming that the only way to protect the constitution is to bin the constitution. The Rule of Law applies to all or it applies to none.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    HYUFD said:

    Trump emerges from court, calls the case corrupt, he is innocent and the real verdict will be in November when he fights for his country and the constitution. Calls it rigged and created by the Biden administration

    Convicted felon Trump moans about receiving his just deserts.

    The Biden administration had no part in the process.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Biden administration has decided to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with U.S.-made weapons with the aim of blunting Russia’s attacks in the Kharkiv area, senior American officials said on Thursday.

    The decision follows weeks of discussion with the Ukrainians after Russia began a major assault on Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine.

    Because Kharkiv is near Russia, in the northeast of Ukraine, the Russian military has been hitting the area around the city with artillery and missiles fired or launched from inside Russian territory, and the Ukrainians have asked the Americans to give them greater leeway in defending Kharkiv, an American official said.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/30/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-weapons.html
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123

    I'm on font watch now.

    Telegraph is now twice the size of NY Times.

    Guardian pretty restrained so far. Normal font.

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    If he keeps talking like this Merchan may have to lock him up if only to shut him up.

    I may have been wrong about the popcorn moment:

    1) Trump fined for the crimes
    2) Trump jailed for contempt
    3) Trump sectioned ('involuntarily committed,' I think they call it) and therefore barred from running.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Trump had no defence to run.

    He would be equally fucked at the other trials if they had been allowed to run at a usual pace, rather than blocked and delayed at every turn.

    In fact this case was his best chance to avoid a conviction - his behaviour in the others is far more egregious.

    His defence in this one was a bit incoherent, since he wouldn't do minor admissions which would open up other defences, and actually meant his arguments contradicted one another (eg Cohen stole money - which he admitted to - but also the payments made to Cohen, which included the bit he admitted he stole, were entirely legitimate).
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    kle4 said:

    From before the verdict, from a Never-Trumper - after years of preparing media and supporters for this outcome, it won't end it, even if some small number do change their minds.

    Politically, Trump will be helped by the NYC verdict, no matter what the verdict is. To all you Democrats breathlessly following this trial, this trial & verdict won’t defeat Trump for you. Not at all. It’s on Biden to make the case against Trump, and it’s on you to get people to vote for Biden. You/Biden are going to have to defeat Trump the good old fashioned way. A guilty verdict in this trial ain’t gonna do it for you.
    https://nitter.poast.org/WalshFreedom/status/1795436894387413080#m

    I'm not sure how this is going to play out.

    One interesting nugget is that a poll today of New York had Trump only 7 points behind (he lost by 23 points in 2020) so the trial seems to have helped him there.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    edited May 30
    I agree this is properly entertaining

    My ideal result would be the clearly unfit Trump retiring and a sane but firmly hard right Republican candidate beating the living shit out of Biden
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    kle4 said:

    From before the verdict, from a Never-Trumper - after years of preparing media and supporters for this outcome, it won't end it, even if some small number do change their minds.

    Politically, Trump will be helped by the NYC verdict, no matter what the verdict is. To all you Democrats breathlessly following this trial, this trial & verdict won’t defeat Trump for you. Not at all. It’s on Biden to make the case against Trump, and it’s on you to get people to vote for Biden. You/Biden are going to have to defeat Trump the good old fashioned way. A guilty verdict in this trial ain’t gonna do it for you.
    https://nitter.poast.org/WalshFreedom/status/1795436894387413080#m

    No it's not; he's been convicted,

    It's on Biden to make a case for his own re-election. The felon can speak for himself.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @gtconway3d

    34/34. So much winning.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    kle4 said:

    From before the verdict, from a Never-Trumper - after years of preparing media and supporters for this outcome, it won't end it, even if some small number do change their minds.

    Politically, Trump will be helped by the NYC verdict, no matter what the verdict is. To all you Democrats breathlessly following this trial, this trial & verdict won’t defeat Trump for you. Not at all. It’s on Biden to make the case against Trump, and it’s on you to get people to vote for Biden. You/Biden are going to have to defeat Trump the good old fashioned way. A guilty verdict in this trial ain’t gonna do it for you.
    https://nitter.poast.org/WalshFreedom/status/1795436894387413080#m

    I'm not sure how this is going to play out.

    One interesting nugget is that a poll today of New York had Trump only 7 points behind (he lost by 23 points in 2020) so the trial seems to have helped him there.
    Bad news for him, if so. It would suggest his vote is less efficient than before.
This discussion has been closed.