Next week things can only get better for Sunak or worse – politicalbetting.com

MarqueeMark said:

nico679 said:

Day 2 of the jury deliberations in the Trump trial .

If they haven’t reached a verdict by the end of the day then I think it will end up a mistrial.

Yesterday’s request by the jury to hear certain testimonies again was seen by some legal experts as bad news for Trump. We can only hope !

The jury has today asked for several pages of the judges instructions to be read to them again.

They seem to be very thorough in their proceedings. It's possible 11 of them are running through why a pro-Trump juror is not discharging their duty as a juror.

TOPPING said:

DM_Andy said:

FPT:

kle4 said:

DM_Andy said:

From a very previous thread:

There was some talk about right-wing conspiracy theorists and I don't think Carl Benjamin is one, he's just a bog-standard Faragist parrot, but another former UKIPper who does seem to have fallen off the reality train is David Kurten, ex London Assembly Member. Here he is chatting with Gareth "Son of David" Icke. https://youtu.be/PfNWIsjOaak

I sometimes wonder what it must be like to be close family with someone often ridiculed or reviled. There's a natural family desire to defend or go easy on them perhaps even if you don't share their views, though clearly some will break from families over such things, but what about the ones who actually try to follow in the footsteps of the father, the Andrew Giulianis, the Don Jrs, apparently the Gareth Ickes?

It puts me in mind of some those disgusting US 'preachers' who do nothing but get followers to give them money and live in mansions and buy private jets, a whole family business in some cases. How many of them believe what they are saying, and how many of their relatives who take part in it are just grifting or truly believe it?

Very good point, I think Gareth must have been very young when his father went on the Wogan show and can't imagine school would have been that fun for him. He seems to be David's business manager, David gets massive audiences for his shows/lectures but he seems like David to be a true believer.

What about Mr Vennells and the Vennells Jrs. I wonder what is going through their minds.

Cookie said:

Casino_Royale said:

A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

What happened to prompt that first sentence?

Casino_Royale said:

A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

kle4 said:

Cookie said:

Casino_Royale said:

A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

What happened to prompt that first sentence?

Given the choice between watching election debates or an England or Scotland match at the Euros, 24% pick the debates, 35% the football, and 37% wouldn't watch either

DM_Andy said:

HYUFD said:

If the Tories are sensible they will push for as many head to heads between Rishi and Starmer as possible as Starmer has a lower lead on preferred PM polls than the overall Labour lead over the Tories. Rishi should at most allow only 1 debate with Tice, a multi party one with the SNP, Green, LD and Plaid leaders too so leftwing parties get as much coverage and otherwise just try and squeeze Reform by pushing a forced choice between him or Starmer as PM

Why would Starmer agree to a free-for-all debate with all the other parties. The Tories can push all they like, if Starmer doesn't agree then there's no debate.

Cookie said:

kle4 said:

Cookie said:

Casino_Royale said:

A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

What happened to prompt that first sentence?

Given the choice between watching election debates or an England or Scotland match at the Euros, 24% pick the debates, 35% the football, and 37% wouldn't watch either

Ah, I see!
I'm rather surprised the debates get 24%, tbh. 35% watching football seems about right. It's popular - but as Casino notes, not as universally popular as people who like it think it is.

kle4 said:

ToryJim said:

Looks like Shaheen is going to try to sue her way onto the ballot.

https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/1796174064714678501?s=61

Well, nothing is stopping her getting on the ballot one way or another. It's getting on as the Labour candidate that's at issue.

Only a week to resolve the matter of course. I cannot remember the last legal challenge around internal party processes, don't the courts not like to interfere if they can find an out?

Also, unfortunately for her Galloway's Gang already have a candidate.

DM_Andy said:

Dangers of professionally broadcasting several hours of your opinions every week.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-election-hopeful-said-he-has-never-liked-constituency-he-wants-to-be-mp-for_uk_66577454e4b05212274ac615

A Tory election hopeful who wants to be MP for Tunbridge Wells previously admitted he has “never liked” the town and would “happily live somewhere else” if he could.

Iain Dale made the comments in a podcast two years before revealing that he wanted to be the Conservative candidate in the constituency.

On a 2022 episode of his ‘For The Many’ podcast alongside former Labour home secretary Jacqui Smith, Dale said: “I have lived in Tunbridge Wells since 1997, slightly against my will in that my partner comes from Tunbridge Wells and can’t really imagine living anywhere else.

“I’ve never liked the place, still don’t and would happily live somewhere else.”

HYUFD said:

DM_Andy said:

HYUFD said:

If the Tories are sensible they will push for as many head to heads between Rishi and Starmer as possible as Starmer has a lower lead on preferred PM polls than the overall Labour lead over the Tories. Rishi should at most allow only 1 debate with Tice, a multi party one with the SNP, Green, LD and Plaid leaders too so leftwing parties get as much coverage and otherwise just try and squeeze Reform by pushing a forced choice between him or Starmer as PM

Why would Starmer agree to a free-for-all debate with all the other parties. The Tories can push all they like, if Starmer doesn't agree then there's no debate.

Then just head to heads with Starmer it will be then, which suits Rishi fine as he can say it was Sir Keir who blocked a multi party debate with Reform not him

DM_Andy said:

HYUFD said:

DM_Andy said:

HYUFD said:

If the Tories are sensible they will push for as many head to heads between Rishi and Starmer as possible as Starmer has a lower lead on preferred PM polls than the overall Labour lead over the Tories. Rishi should at most allow only 1 debate with Tice, a multi party one with the SNP, Green, LD and Plaid leaders too so leftwing parties get as much coverage and otherwise just try and squeeze Reform by pushing a forced choice between him or Starmer as PM

Why would Starmer agree to a free-for-all debate with all the other parties. The Tories can push all they like, if Starmer doesn't agree then there's no debate.

Then just head to heads with Starmer it will be then, which suits Rishi fine as he can say it was Sir Keir who blocked a multi party debate with Reform not him

and all Starmer has to say is that he's followed the precedent set by Boris Johnson in 2019 that there be only two debates and only between the two main candidates.

Taz said:

kle4 said:

ToryJim said:

Looks like Shaheen is going to try to sue her way onto the ballot.

https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/1796174064714678501?s=61

Well, nothing is stopping her getting on the ballot one way or another. It's getting on as the Labour candidate that's at issue.

Only a week to resolve the matter of course. I cannot remember the last legal challenge around internal party processes, don't the courts not like to interfere if they can find an out?

Also, unfortunately for her Galloway's Gang already have a candidate.

Was it when Labour was challenged on AWS's by some disgruntled candidates ?

Andy_Cooke said:

Things can always get worse, so Sunak should feel somewhat cheered if they don't.

I was a bit surprised to see how the famous 1993 Canadian Federal Election actually unfolded, opinion polling-wise. I'd been under the impression the Prog Cons had been doomed all along, but the polling looked like the below:



(All done in one image due to the rules of the site).

First image was the story of the Parliament up until about the point the campaign was called. Up until then, it looked rather like "Classic swingback, albeit from a really deep and sustained low point."

And during the campaign, the Conservatives initially caught up and even led a few polls (something we don't expect here).

Then they went full Truss and into freefall, as shown in the complete image including the campaign period.

Obviously I don't expect that here (there are many things different), but it does illustrate how much worse things could get during a campaign period.

bondegezou said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

Was Partygate Sunak's fault?

He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.

Scott_xP said:

bondegezou said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

Was Partygate Sunak's fault?

He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.

Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625

Taz said:

Cookie said:

kle4 said:

Cookie said:

Casino_Royale said:

A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

What happened to prompt that first sentence?

Given the choice between watching election debates or an England or Scotland match at the Euros, 24% pick the debates, 35% the football, and 37% wouldn't watch either

Ah, I see!
I'm rather surprised the debates get 24%, tbh. 35% watching football seems about right. It's popular - but as Casino notes, not as universally popular as people who like it think it is.

OMG we are soon going to get all that "it's coming home" crap.

Stuartinromford said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

And the response... Not at all tetchy.

Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)

Stuartinromford said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

And the response... Not at all tetchy.

Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

Chameleon said:

I wonder where in the Lib Dem grid sending their leader to Germany to neck a pint in a football crowd is.

bondegezou said:

Scott_xP said:

bondegezou said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

Was Partygate Sunak's fault?

He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.

Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625

I think the tweet's summary exaggerates how bad Sunak's response is... but it wasn't good. He's not a natural at this!

Stuartinromford said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

And the response... Not at all tetchy.

Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)

Andy_Cooke said:

Things can always get worse, so Sunak should feel somewhat cheered if they don't.

I was a bit surprised to see how the famous 1993 Canadian Federal Election actually unfolded, opinion polling-wise. I'd been under the impression the Prog Cons had been doomed all along, but the polling looked like the below:



(All done in one image due to the rules of the site).

First image was the story of the Parliament up until about the point the campaign was called. Up until then, it looked rather like "Classic swingback, albeit from a really deep and sustained low point."

And during the campaign, the Conservatives initially caught up and even led a few polls (something we don't expect here).

Then they went full Truss and into freefall, as shown in the complete image including the campaign period.

Obviously I don't expect that here (there are many things different), but it does illustrate how much worse things could get during a campaign period.

Scott_xP said:

That was the genuine Richi on display.

Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.

Pro_Rata said:

bondegezou said:

Scott_xP said:

bondegezou said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

Was Partygate Sunak's fault?

He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.

Man asks Sunak about breaking lockdown while he couldn't be with his dying Mum.

Sunak [smilling]: I just turned up early for a meeting [still smiling] for people like you [smiling] that's when I was first on TV.

https://x.com/BestForBritain/status/1796196352512188625

I think the tweet's summary exaggerates how bad Sunak's response is... but it wasn't good. He's not a natural at this!

It is the last sentence, "it's probably at that time that you got to know me as chancellor" that is particularly bad here. To me, he is opening and closing his mouth and wearing a slightly pained and embarrassed expression. I wouldn't categorise it as smiling.

Farooq said:

TUD's post (and I'm not replying because jesus fucking christ) got me wondering. If there's violence from England fans (or Scottish fans, but they won't be there as long), how will it play politically? Any predictable effect?

Pro_Rata said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

Was Partygate Sunak's fault?

"Shit happens" is usually the best response.

I think as a response to the man's Mum's death that would have been considerably worse.

Casino_Royale said:

My guess: partygate doesn't happen, and neither does the Truss debacle, but something else that totemises the pain and loss of lockdown and the cost of living crisis does, and that leads to Labour being heavily behind by now too - just as Western governments have suffered from it across the world.

boulay said:

…

Pro_Rata said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

Was Partygate Sunak's fault?

"Shit happens" is usually the best response.

I think as a response to the man's Mum's death that would have been considerably worse.

Not as bad as “I think you’ll find that your mum would have died alone whether I was at a party or not during Covid.”

Factually correct but not overly diplomatic.

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

And the response... Not at all tetchy.

Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)

This is absolutely going to come up during the debates:
STARMER: You Broke the Law, your own laws, the laws you imposed on everyone else to keep us safe
SUNAK: Erm, actually I was there by accident actually and was working hard to keep you and your loved ones safe. And what about your curry? I won't take criticism from Sir Beer Korma
STARMER: What about my curry? I obeyed the law - as the police confirmed. You broke the law - as the police confirmed
SUNAK: You don't know what a woman is! You defended Terrorists! Your mum is Jimmy Saville! Stop being nasty!!!!

Andy_Cooke said:

Things can always get worse, so Sunak should feel somewhat cheered if they don't.

I was a bit surprised to see how the famous 1993 Canadian Federal Election actually unfolded, opinion polling-wise. I'd been under the impression the Prog Cons had been doomed all along, but the polling looked like the below:



(All done in one image due to the rules of the site).

First image was the story of the Parliament up until about the point the campaign was called. Up until then, it looked rather like "Classic swingback, albeit from a really deep and sustained low point."

And during the campaign, the Conservatives initially caught up and even led a few polls (something we don't expect here).

Then they went full Truss and into freefall, as shown in the complete image including the campaign period.

Obviously I don't expect that here (there are many things different), but it does illustrate how much worse things could get during a campaign period.

Farooq said:

TUD's post (and I'm not replying because jesus fucking christ) got me wondering. If there's violence from England fans (or Scottish fans, but they won't be there as long), how will it play politically? Any predictable effect?

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

And the response... Not at all tetchy.

Sunak says he only got fined because he "turned up early" while "working on things to help you and your business"


https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167

Which could be a problem next Tuesday. (And I've got some sympathy for Sunak on the fine- it was harsh given what else was going on.)

This is absolutely going to come up during the debates:
STARMER: You Broke the Law, your own laws, the laws you imposed on everyone else to keep us safe
SUNAK: Erm, actually I was there by accident actually and was working hard to keep you and your loved ones safe. And what about your curry? I won't take criticism from Sir Beer Korma
STARMER: What about my curry? I obeyed the law - as the police confirmed. You broke the law - as the police confirmed
SUNAK: You don't know what a woman is! You defended Terrorists! Your mum is Jimmy Saville! Stop being nasty!!!!

algarkirk said:

Cookie said:

kle4 said:

Cookie said:

Casino_Royale said:

A salutary lesson that most people in Britain are not into the football.

I don't hold high hopes for Sunak - I don't think he'll be able to control himself properly.

What happened to prompt that first sentence?

Given the choice between watching election debates or an England or Scotland match at the Euros, 24% pick the debates, 35% the football, and 37% wouldn't watch either

Ah, I see!
I'm rather surprised the debates get 24%, tbh. 35% watching football seems about right. It's popular - but as Casino notes, not as universally popular as people who like it think it is.

The majority of the population have no interest in football whatsoever.

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

Farooq said:

TUD's post (and I'm not replying because jesus fucking christ) got me wondering. If there's violence from England fans (or Scottish fans, but they won't be there as long), how will it play politically? Any predictable effect?

Not much as most of those involved will probably be voting Reform anyway and diehard Farage lovers!

I'm not talking about who they vote for, I'm talking about how people will respond at home to such scenes and whether politicians might try to capitalise on such reactions.

For instance, Reform choosing to emphasise police brutality or horrible foreign fans picking on our brave, innocent boys.

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_xP said:

That was the genuine Richi on display.

Tetchy, entitled, zero empathy for real people.

"Bad news about your Mum dying ... but the good news is that you got to know me". You would not want to be his comms adviser, would you?

Ghedebrav said:

Betting post, and re the footy - England as ever are horrible value (3/1 favourites, ha); for me Germany are probably slightly underpriced, given they will have a decent team and are on home turf.

Hungary might be a good bet to get to the semis.

Casino_Royale said:

bondegezou said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_xP said:

@LizzyBuchan

Rishi Sunak confronted over Partygate by a worker whose mum died during Covid - just before Sunak got a fine.

"How can anyone trust you after things like this?"

Was Partygate Sunak's fault?

He was not the prime cause of Partygate. But he was around. One could argue that he could have done more to stop what happened.

He also inherits the corporate responsibility of the Conservative government.

Yes, there is that.

One does wonder if, say, Labour had been in office since Dec 2019 (let's say SKS won then and Corbyn and Brexit weren't a thing) how the two very black swans of Covid and Ukraine would have affected them?

My guess: partygate doesn't happen, and neither does the Truss debacle, but something else that totemises the pain and loss of lockdown and the cost of living crisis does, and that leads to Labour being heavily behind by now too - just as Western governments have suffered from it across the world.