If Putin has really left Moscow by plane already, with the convoy maybe half a day away, doesn't that mean he's afraid that the troops in Moscow will go over to the other side even before Wagner gets there?
It's hardly as though Wagner has an air force to intercept him if he tries to go any later.
For every police, security, military, or paramilitary entity in Russia that Putin might call upon for help he now has to think "will they defend me or detain me?" He's really in very deep trouble.
As tragic as a Russian Civil War would be for ordinary Russians and how sketchy it could be for the rest of us, I think Russians killing Russians is better than Russians killing Ukrainians. Russia only gets run by whoever has the most guns, so it's not going to end up with them becoming a shining beacon of democracy. We'd better buckle up, because if it does go south rapidly, it's going to be a hell of a ride!
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
Just so. The last Russian civil war lasted 6 years, caused c.1.5m deaths and the US and UK backed the losing side.
If Putin has really left Moscow by plane already, with the convoy maybe half a day away, doesn't that mean he's afraid that the troops in Moscow will go over to the other side even before Wagner gets there?
It's hardly as though Wagner has an air force to intercept him if he tries to go any later.
For every police, security, military, or paramilitary entity in Russia that Putin might call upon for help he now has to think "will they defend me or detain me?" He's really in very deep trouble.
Classic strongman dilemma. Anyone you have to rely upon therefore has power over you, so you cannot fully trust them since if they have that power they could use it to harm you too.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
Just so. The last Russian civil war lasted 6 years, caused c.1.5m deaths and the US and UK backed the losing side.
It caused many more deaths than that if you include the famine.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
Will it? Civil wars are quite capable of spilling over into neighbouring countries. Even if those neighbouring countries are not already occupied.
I think if I were the Ukrainians I would not be celebrating just yet. It gives them an opportunity, but not a certainty.
Ukrainian state forces would naturally exercise more caution than excitable commentators on the internet, I don't think that speaks ill of the latter.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
Will it? Civil wars are quite capable of spilling over into neighbouring countries. Even if those neighbouring countries are not already occupied.
I think if I were the Ukrainians I would not be celebrating just yet. It gives them an opportunity, but not a certainty.
I think that the particular dynamics of the current situation, with relatively so little of Russia's armed forces in Russia, mean that if the rebellion is not settled one way or the other within a week there will be massive withdrawals of Russian forces from Ukraine. Moscow is much more important to both sides in a future Russian civil war than Donetsk.
And for Ukraine they will know that if they can regain their international borders, and keep their noses out of the Russian civil war, that they could be members of NATO fairly rapidly, and have the security of a few thousand NATO troops ready to defend their territory from any future Russian aggression.
I don't see the dynamics that would involve Ukraine in a protracted Russian civil war.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
It's bollocks. They've been firing at each other for months.
This is a power struggle between Prigozhin and the Russian State and I think he has been preparing for a while. Bakhmut suddenly makes more sense if he was using it to rile his men against the regime.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
Dont get too excited men. Go to your local crack open a beer and ogle the beautiful women. If you get lonely i know someone good who charges 300 an hour.
That's what she tells you.
For everyone else it's £50.
Russian prostitutes are known as the best throughout the world.
No, no, don't be silly. Turkmenistan's are far better.
Borat told us so.
Vladimir Putin described Russian sex workers as the best in the world during the fuss over the Steele dossier's claims about Donald Trump and Obama's bed.
Aw, in the interest of ongoing events, couldn’t we have kept him a little longer?
No, even piss-poor Putin-bots needed at the front right now!
Wherever that is?
In Russia, the front line gets sent to you
NYT reporting that "military forces were seen moving north from Voronezh".
NORTH on road to Moscow, from town closer to Moscow than it is to Rostov-on-Don.
They’re North of Yelets now, only a couple of hours from the outskirts of Moscow.
Is this even going to take 72 hours?
The Russian military has apparently blocked the major roads further north with ranks of dump trucks. Whether those will hold, or whether there are any side routes Wagner could take I have no idea though.
I wonder if someone is sitting nervously in say, Florida, wondering if Vlad has also kept lots of potentially “awkward” classified docs in his Dacha that have info about a random foreign politician that the Wagner guys will discover.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
This has been months in the planning.
Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
It's bollocks. They've been firing at each other for months.
This is a power struggle between Prigozhin and the Russian State and I think he has been preparing for a while. Bakhmut suddenly makes more sense if he was using it to rile his men against the regime.
Especially if he was using it as an means to stockpile ammunition rather than firing it at the Ukrainians.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
This has been months in the planning.
Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
Russians are blockading roads M-4 and M-2, where they cross the Oka river South of Moscow, presumably in an attempt to stop the convoy at a pinch point.
Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).
There's something ineffably British about a thunder run involving a short bald man with poor eyesight and a creased t-shirt in a second-hand BMW driving to Barnard Castle.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
"The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months" https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
In The_Chieftain's latest missive. he pointed out that on any given day there will be about 10,000 drones in theatre in Ukraine. It's bigger than the UK. Five blokes from the Hereford boathouse will not make any difference.
Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).
There's something ineffably British about a thunder run involving a short bald man with poor eyesight and a creased t-shirt in a second-hand BMW driving to Barnard Castle.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
Just so. The last Russian civil war lasted 6 years, caused c.1.5m deaths and the US and UK backed the losing side.
"The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months" https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200
Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).
There's something ineffably British about a thunder run involving a short bald man with poor eyesight and a creased t-shirt in a second-hand BMW driving to Barnard Castle.
Was it really second hand?
Good question. I threw it in to make the sentence scan. He's born to wealth and doesn't feel the need to impress, so I figured he'd buy second-hand. Happy to be corrected if wrong.
[edit. And it should have been "creasy" t-shirt, since the "-ed" trips the flow a bit]
"The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months" https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200
Just when today couldn’t get any funnier - if it turns out that the Wagner Group have been hoarding Russian weapons, to use against the Russian Army…
Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).
There's something ineffably British about a thunder run involving a short bald man with poor eyesight and a creased t-shirt in a second-hand BMW driving to Barnard Castle.
Was it really second hand?
Good question. I threw it in to make the sentence scan. He's born to wealth and doesn't feel the need to impress, so I figured he'd buy second-hand. Happy to be corrected if wrong.
Didn't Cummings have a Land Rover Discovery aka Disco?
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
In The_Chieftain's latest missive. he pointed out that on any given day there will be about 10,000 drones in theatre in Ukraine. It's bigger than the UK. Five blokes from the Hereford boathouse will not make any difference.
No - I don’t mean fighting. I mean this alleged secret liaison between Ukraine and Wagner. I’d be surprised if Five eyes - especially US/UK has no “insight” there
The entire war has been replete with duplicity and psyops. Cf Nordstream
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
This has been months in the planning.
Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
Perhaps taking Bakhmut to give him credibility was coordinated with Ukraine, when all along he was plotting to move against Putin and end the war.
Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).
There's something ineffably British about a thunder run involving a short bald man with poor eyesight and a creased t-shirt in a second-hand BMW driving to Barnard Castle.
Was it really second hand?
Good question. I threw it in to make the sentence scan. He's born to wealth and doesn't feel the need to impress, so I figured he'd buy second-hand. Happy to be corrected if wrong.
Didn't Cummings have a Land Rover Discovery aka Disco?
Well, I said I'd be happy to be corrected, so there's that...
Another eyewitness video of a Wagner convoy reportedly breaking through then "truck obstacles" on the way to Moscow - the types of obstacles I posted above that are supposed to protect Moscow highways. https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1672600151909707778
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
Another eyewitness video of a Wagner convoy reportedly breaking through then "truck obstacles" on the way to Moscow - the types of obstacles I posted above that are supposed to protect Moscow highways. https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1672600151909707778
Another eyewitness video of a Wagner convoy reportedly breaking through then "truck obstacles" on the way to Moscow - the types of obstacles I posted above that are supposed to protect Moscow highways. https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1672600151909707778
Well, if they think a couple of trucks before a bridge - rather than a couple of dozen trucks on the bridge - are going to stop an enemy convoy…
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Sounds like a bad version of Rotterdam by the Beautiful South.
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
In The_Chieftain's latest missive. he pointed out that on any given day there will be about 10,000 drones in theatre in Ukraine. It's bigger than the UK. Five blokes from the Hereford boathouse will not make any difference.
No - I don’t mean fighting. I mean this alleged secret liaison between Ukraine and Wagner. I’d be surprised if Five eyes - especially US/UK has no “insight” there
The entire war has been replete with duplicity and psyops. Cf Nordstream
Fair point. I'm just trying to process the fact that the Russian version of Grant Mitchell is leading an armed incursion towards Moscow, that the Pentagon may actually have helped him plan, supply and pay for it for months, that Putin may have fled the capital, and that it might actually work. I can only handle so much.
If Putin has really left Moscow by plane already, with the convoy maybe half a day away, doesn't that mean he's afraid that the troops in Moscow will go over to the other side even before Wagner gets there?
It's hardly as though Wagner has an air force to intercept him if he tries to go any later.
For every police, security, military, or paramilitary entity in Russia that Putin might call upon for help he now has to think "will they defend me or detain me?" He's really in very deep trouble.
Classic strongman dilemma. Anyone you have to rely upon therefore has power over you, so you cannot fully trust them since if they have that power they could use it to harm you too.
I was thinking about when we last had a militia anything like the Wagner Brigade. Maybe the black and tans in the Irish war in the early 1920's? Its not something that serious countries generally do or serious armies tolerate. The fact that Russia has been so dependent upon a bunch of thugs and convicts for manpower has demonstrated that their army is overrated more than anything else.
Prigozhin was almost certainly telling the truth about seriously undermanned regiments with the generals pocketing the wages of phantom soldiers too.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
This has been months in the planning.
Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
Perhaps taking Bakhmut to give him credibility was coordinated with Ukraine, when all along he was plotting to move against Putin and end the war.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
I don't think scenario 1 exists. Prigozhin has just said the war is senseless and based on lies which is why the groups who want to see the war prosecuted harder aren't behind him. He doesn't represent the war party in Russia at this point.
The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow
1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious
2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?
3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??
It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.
Why did they mutiny?
Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
This has been months in the planning.
Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
Perhaps taking Bakhmut to give him credibility was coordinated with Ukraine, when all along he was plotting to move against Putin and end the war.
You've left out the 'cia'.
He's moving against the CIA too? Does his ambition know no bounds?
The reason they are shifting to St P is because it’s very easy for them to escape to the non NATO country Finland, what’s that you say, Finland joined NATO because we invaded Ukraine? Bugger.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
I don't think scenario 1 exists. Prigozhin has just said the war is senseless and based on lies which is why the groups who want to see the war prosecuted harder aren't behind him. He doesn't represent the war party in Russia at this point.
Yes, Putin has been in denial and thinking he led a superpower that could easily invade its neighbours.
Prigozhin knows better. He doesn't want to return to a frontline against Western weapons.
Fighting in Africa is more profitable and fun than dying in Ukraine. Being the next President of Russia, safe in Moscow, is probably even more profitable.
Sounds like the fighting in Moscow might already have begun. Implying Wagner had men there lying low
Which makes sense
If I remember correctly, that was the flawed tactic from the start of the invasion of Ukraine, where little green men had been hiding in Kiev for weeks in advance in an attempt to capture the likes of Zelenskyy and disrupt day to day running of the city.
The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow
1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious
2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?
3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??
It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.
Why did they mutiny?
Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
Mmm. Chechens v Wagner around Rostov. Wagner v Putinist Loyalist remnants south of Moscow. Angry Patriots threatening to mobilise God knows where. And the bulk of the Army in Ukraine. How did Russia collapse? Very slowly then in under a day. Kind of them to do it on a weekend when I'm able to be Online
Another eyewitness video of a Wagner convoy reportedly breaking through then "truck obstacles" on the way to Moscow - the types of obstacles I posted above that are supposed to protect Moscow highways. https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1672600151909707778
The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow
1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious
2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?
3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??
It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.
Why did they mutiny?
Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Sounds like a bad version of Rotterdam by the Beautiful South.
Sounds like the fighting in Moscow might already have begun. Implying Wagner had men there lying low
Which makes sense
If I remember correctly, that was the flawed tactic from the start of the invasion of Ukraine, where little green men had been hiding in Kiev for weeks in advance in an attempt to capture the likes of Zelenskyy and disrupt day to day running of the city.
Sometimes when people say “Kiev”, they really mean “Chernobyl”.
Comments
3 new Spanish polls. One shows a narrowing PP lead, the other 2 fairly stable. Too early to see if we have a new direction.
Pride's Purge in 1648.
Less violent, but Macmillan rounding on Eden in 1956 over Suez.
We'd better buckle up, because if it does go south rapidly, it's going to be a hell of a ride!
The last Russian civil war lasted 6 years, caused c.1.5m deaths and the US and UK backed the losing side.
On that subject, maybe Bentinck and Stanley over the Corn Laws?
I expect some troll has already suggested it.
And for Ukraine they will know that if they can regain their international borders, and keep their noses out of the Russian civil war, that they could be members of NATO fairly rapidly, and have the security of a few thousand NATO troops ready to defend their territory from any future Russian aggression.
I don't see the dynamics that would involve Ukraine in a protracted Russian civil war.
This is a power struggle between Prigozhin and the Russian State and I think he has been preparing for a while. Bakhmut suddenly makes more sense if he was using it to rile his men against the regime.
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
Unclear how much this is going to affect the frontline yet, Prigozhin has said he is going to let MOD staff continue to work in Rostov, implying supplies will continue unabated. Any disruption at all, should know it in about three to seven days.
https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1672580205142065153?cxt=HHwWgoC-nbe1mbYuAAAA
"The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months"
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200
https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon/status/1672597709662875648
Imetatronik thinks the coup is going nowhere.
[edit. And it should have been "creasy" t-shirt, since the "-ed" trips the flow a bit]
https://twitter.com/leventkemaI/status/1672595767775707138
The entire war has been replete with duplicity and psyops. Cf Nordstream
https://youtu.be/251zlGliwOQ
https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1672600151909707778
It doesn't seem as if Moscow's writ extends very far.
@DarthPutinKGB
Wagner took 9 months to capture Bakhmut and 3 hours to capture Rostov.
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1672514271438053376
No one else seems to be fighting the Wagner soldiers on the ground.
His prescience continues to be unmatched.
(Also. Mark Thatcher says hello.)
here's a map: https://liveuamap.com/#
Prigozhin was almost certainly telling the truth about seriously undermanned regiments with the generals pocketing the wages of phantom soldiers too.
🇷🇺⚡️HEAVY TRAFFIC OF RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT HIGH-PROFILE OFFICIALS TO ST. PETERSBURG AWAY FROM MOSCOW
https://twitter.com/battlesintel/status/1672606916927713280?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Which makes sense
I wondered if whoever runs it realised quite how it would end up, given it started back in 2012.
Maybe Putin's last stand ?
Prigozhin knows better. He doesn't want to return to a frontline against Western weapons.
Fighting in Africa is more profitable and fun than dying in Ukraine. Being the next President of Russia, safe in Moscow, is probably even more profitable.
and disrupt day to day running of the city.
Chechens v Wagner around Rostov.
Wagner v Putinist Loyalist remnants south of Moscow.
Angry Patriots threatening to mobilise God knows where.
And the bulk of the Army in Ukraine.
How did Russia collapse?
Very slowly then in under a day.
Kind of them to do it on a weekend when I'm able to be Online