How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Sounds like a bad version of Rotterdam by the Beautiful South.
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
In The_Chieftain's latest missive. he pointed out that on any given day there will be about 10,000 drones in theatre in Ukraine. It's bigger than the UK. Five blokes from the Hereford boathouse will not make any difference.
No - I don’t mean fighting. I mean this alleged secret liaison between Ukraine and Wagner. I’d be surprised if Five eyes - especially US/UK has no “insight” there
The entire war has been replete with duplicity and psyops. Cf Nordstream
Fair point. I'm just trying to process the fact that the Russian version of Grant Mitchell is leading an armed incursion towards Moscow, that the Pentagon may actually have helped him plan, supply and pay for it for months, that Putin may have fled the capital, and that it might actually work. I can only handle so much.
If Putin has really left Moscow by plane already, with the convoy maybe half a day away, doesn't that mean he's afraid that the troops in Moscow will go over to the other side even before Wagner gets there?
It's hardly as though Wagner has an air force to intercept him if he tries to go any later.
For every police, security, military, or paramilitary entity in Russia that Putin might call upon for help he now has to think "will they defend me or detain me?" He's really in very deep trouble.
Classic strongman dilemma. Anyone you have to rely upon therefore has power over you, so you cannot fully trust them since if they have that power they could use it to harm you too.
I was thinking about when we last had a militia anything like the Wagner Brigade. Maybe the black and tans in the Irish war in the early 1920's? Its not something that serious countries generally do or serious armies tolerate. The fact that Russia has been so dependent upon a bunch of thugs and convicts for manpower has demonstrated that their army is overrated more than anything else.
Prigozhin was almost certainly telling the truth about seriously undermanned regiments with the generals pocketing the wages of phantom soldiers too.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
This has been months in the planning.
Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
Perhaps taking Bakhmut to give him credibility was coordinated with Ukraine, when all along he was plotting to move against Putin and end the war.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
I don't think scenario 1 exists. Prigozhin has just said the war is senseless and based on lies which is why the groups who want to see the war prosecuted harder aren't behind him. He doesn't represent the war party in Russia at this point.
The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow
1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious
2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?
3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??
It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.
Why did they mutiny?
Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow
1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious
2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?
3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??
It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.
Why did they mutiny?
Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
This has been months in the planning.
Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
Perhaps taking Bakhmut to give him credibility was coordinated with Ukraine, when all along he was plotting to move against Putin and end the war.
You've left out the 'cia'.
He's moving against the CIA too? Does his ambition know no bounds?
The reason they are shifting to St P is because it’s very easy for them to escape to the non NATO country Finland, what’s that you say, Finland joined NATO because we invaded Ukraine? Bugger.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
I don't think scenario 1 exists. Prigozhin has just said the war is senseless and based on lies which is why the groups who want to see the war prosecuted harder aren't behind him. He doesn't represent the war party in Russia at this point.
Yes, Putin has been in denial and thinking he led a superpower that could easily invade its neighbours.
Prigozhin knows better. He doesn't want to return to a frontline against Western weapons.
Fighting in Africa is more profitable and fun than dying in Ukraine. Being the next President of Russia, safe in Moscow, is probably even more profitable.
Sounds like the fighting in Moscow might already have begun. Implying Wagner had men there lying low
Which makes sense
If I remember correctly, that was the flawed tactic from the start of the invasion of Ukraine, where little green men had been hiding in Kiev for weeks in advance in an attempt to capture the likes of Zelenskyy and disrupt day to day running of the city.
The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow
1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious
2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?
3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??
It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.
Why did they mutiny?
Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
Mmm. Chechens v Wagner around Rostov. Wagner v Putinist Loyalist remnants south of Moscow. Angry Patriots threatening to mobilise God knows where. And the bulk of the Army in Ukraine. How did Russia collapse? Very slowly then in under a day. Kind of them to do it on a weekend when I'm able to be Online
Another eyewitness video of a Wagner convoy reportedly breaking through then "truck obstacles" on the way to Moscow - the types of obstacles I posted above that are supposed to protect Moscow highways. https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1672600151909707778
The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow
1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious
2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?
3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??
It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.
Why did they mutiny?
Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Sounds like a bad version of Rotterdam by the Beautiful South.
Sounds like the fighting in Moscow might already have begun. Implying Wagner had men there lying low
Which makes sense
If I remember correctly, that was the flawed tactic from the start of the invasion of Ukraine, where little green men had been hiding in Kiev for weeks in advance in an attempt to capture the likes of Zelenskyy and disrupt day to day running of the city.
Sometimes when people say “Kiev”, they really mean “Chernobyl”.
The reason they are shifting to St P is because it’s very easy for them to escape to the non NATO country Finland, what’s that you say, Finland joined NATO because we invaded Ukraine? Bugger.
Easier to attack the Poles from St Petersburg.
Not Poland, you understand. I mean the frozen north. Perhaps Russia can win a war against some arctic mackerel or something.
Christ! If they don't stop at Moscow but carry on to St Pertersburg they'll be just a 5 hour drive from our summer cottage Thank God the Finns joined NATO
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Sounds like a bad version of Rotterdam by the Beautiful South.
You mean there's a good version?!
Very good point. Loved Welcome to the Beautiful South but everything after seemed like twee Radio 2 shit.
Grant Mitchell (TM) has been seeing the war as lost for a while. Been building up supplies and accreting allies. He’s gone for it now - maybe because it became obvious what he was doing, but before the Ukrainian advance gets through the minefields that are slowing them down at the moment. Once they hit open country it’s going to be Musical Box time, probably.
The reason they are shifting to St P is because it’s very easy for them to escape to the non NATO country Finland, what’s that you say, Finland joined NATO because we invaded Ukraine? Bugger.
Easier to attack the Poles from St Petersburg.
Not Poland, you understand. I mean the frozen north. Perhaps Russia can win a war against some arctic mackerel or something.
The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow
1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious
2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?
3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??
It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.
Why did they mutiny?
Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
It wasn't called Petrograd till 1924
1914
On 26 January 1924, five days after Lenin's death, Petrograd was renamed Leningrad.
The reason they are shifting to St P is because it’s very easy for them to escape to the non NATO country Finland, what’s that you say, Finland joined NATO because we invaded Ukraine? Bugger.
Easier to attack the Poles from St Petersburg.
Not Poland, you understand. I mean the frozen north. Perhaps Russia can win a war against some arctic mackerel or something.
Let’s just hope they don’t fuck up and attack the Arctic Monkeys by mistake, Gordon Brown will go absolutely nuts.
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Mmm. Chechens v Wagner around Rostov. Wagner v Putinist Loyalist remnants south of Moscow. Angry Patriots threatening to mobilise God knows where. And the bulk of the Army in Ukraine. How did Russia collapse? Very slowly then in under a day. Kind of them to do it on a weekend when I'm able to be Online
During lockdown I rewatched the old Michael Palin show 'Pole to Pole'. Interesting bits of him making it down through Russia in the fading days of the Soviet Union. While he was crossing the Black Sea to get to Turkey there was the failed coup and the final collapse.
Just came back to mind in terms of the speed of events.
The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow
1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious
2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?
3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??
It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.
Why did they mutiny?
Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
It wasn't called Petrograd till 1924
1914
On 26 January 1924, five days after Lenin's death, Petrograd was renamed Leningrad.
(per Wiki) ... so yeah!
Correct, which means it WAS called Petrograd before 1924. Since 1914.
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Transnistria!
Cisnistria
No it's the other side of the [D]niester river. Cisnistria would be the Western bank, which would be Moldova in this case. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is the Eastern bank, hence the name.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
Sounds like the fighting in Moscow might already have begun. Implying Wagner had men there lying low
Which makes sense
If I remember correctly, that was the flawed tactic from the start of the invasion of Ukraine, where little green men had been hiding in Kiev for weeks in advance in an attempt to capture the likes of Zelenskyy and disrupt day to day running of the city.
Sometimes when people say “Kiev”, they really mean “Chernobyl”.
I have to say, chicken Chernobyl & chips doesn't sound quite so nice
Christ! If they don't stop at Moscow but carry on to St Pertersburg they'll be just a 5 hour drive from our summer cottage Thank God the Finns joined NATO
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Transnistria!
Cisnistria
No it's the other side of the [D]niester river. Cisnistria would be the Western bank, which would be Moldova in this case. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is the Eastern bank, hence the name.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Transnistria!
Cisnistria
No it's the other side of the [D]niester river. Cisnistria would be the Western bank, which would be Moldova in this case. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is the Eastern bank, hence the name.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
I know, I know. Just a throwback to a previous conversation. I'm not trying to make myself the target of geographical crititransm.
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Transnistria!
Cisnistria
No it's the other side of the [D]niester river. Cisnistria would be the Western bank, which would be Moldova in this case. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is the Eastern bank, hence the name.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
Hertfordshire in the way?
Mercia. IIRC Mercia extended to London, and the Thames was the border. And Londoners then as now thought they were the centre of the cosmos.
I’m quite amused that it takes a potential coup in a nuclear power in which thousands could die to stop bickering on PB. More coups, fewer trans arguments please. Thank you.
The Kalinauski Regiment and the Belarusian government in exile have issued a declaration to the Belarusian armed forces and the people of the country to begin a new uprising to overthrow the dictator an end Russian control in the country.
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Transnistria!
Cisnistria
No it's the other side of the [D]niester river. Cisnistria would be the Western bank, which would be Moldova in this case. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is the Eastern bank, hence the name.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
Hertfordshire in the way?
Mercia. IIRC Mercia extended to London, and the Thames was the border. And Londoners then as now thought they were the centre of the cosmos.
Mercia gets its name from is being a border territory. Mercia has the same root as "march" as in the Welsh Marches, marquis (=lord of the border country), and Mersey (=border river, which was also the border of... Mercia!)
According to various people scanning satellite data, part of the Wagner forces are already in Tula, which is only about 180km from Moscow, or about 110 miles.
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Transnistria!
Cisnistria
No it's the other side of the [D]niester river. Cisnistria would be the Western bank, which would be Moldova in this case. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is the Eastern bank, hence the name.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
Hertfordshire in the way?
The horrible thing is, I seem to remember that there is an actual reason but I've forgotten what it is!
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.
So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
I can't promise that. That's the point. It's not a trade, as in a chess match or something, it's a development with unknowable and potentially cataclysmic consequences. To go back to where we started - the notion of actively hoping for a 'full blown civil war in Russia'. To me 'full blown civil war' sounds utterly horrendous, both for the carnage and chaos it would cause in Russia and the potential for overspill. It's just not a 'hoping for' type of event.
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Your apologia for Russian fascism is truly disturbing and betrays a lack of sense and humanity.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Transnistria!
Cisnistria
No it's the other side of the [D]niester river. Cisnistria would be the Western bank, which would be Moldova in this case. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is the Eastern bank, hence the name.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
You know Middlesex sounds almost exactly like Non Binary, so I salute your ability to bring this whole discussion back to trans.
""We are little-by-little running out of popcorn,” jokes Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister.
Great quote. I’m pretty sure that Ukraine is happier today, than at any point in the last 16 months. I know I am.
I don't know if I would describe myself as "happy" about a civil war in a country with the second largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. The current situation is not without risks but it may save many tens of thousands of brave Ukrainian lives.
Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
This has been months in the planning.
Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
Perhaps taking Bakhmut to give him credibility was coordinated with Ukraine, when all along he was plotting to move against Putin and end the war.
Duplicity and criminality... My my, you DO have a dirty mind.
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Transnistria!
Cisnistria
No it's the other side of the [D]niester river. Cisnistria would be the Western bank, which would be Moldova in this case. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is the Eastern bank, hence the name.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
You know Middlesex sounds almost exactly like Non Binary, so I salute your ability to bring this whole discussion back to trans.
I’m quite amused that it takes a potential coup in a nuclear power in which thousands could die to stop bickering on PB. More coups, fewer trans arguments please. Thank you.
When the aliens reveal themselves @Leon may the only poster left on here.
On topic (for which I apologise), I see the LibDems in Somerton & Frome have been pumping out a local fake newspaper, the Somerset Clarion. Some irony in that the Clarion tradition was firmly socialist...
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
Just so. The last Russian civil war lasted 6 years, caused c.1.5m deaths and the US and UK backed the losing side.
""We are little-by-little running out of popcorn,” jokes Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister.
Great quote. I’m pretty sure that Ukraine is happier today, than at any point in the last 16 months. I know I am.
I don't know if I would describe myself as "happy" about a civil war in a country with the second largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. The current situation is not without risks but it may save many tens of thousands of brave Ukrainian lives.
The Ukranians aren’t quite having the party yet. But the bunting is being found, and the Champagne ordered…
There’s a genuine feeling that the war in Ukraine could be over in days or even hours.
I’m quite amused that it takes a potential coup in a nuclear power in which thousands could die to stop bickering on PB. More coups, fewer trans arguments please. Thank you.
When the aliens reveal themselves @Leon may the only poster left on here.
I thought someone had already mentioned Little Green Men being observed there?
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Transnistria!
Cisnistria
No it's the other side of the [D]niester river. Cisnistria would be the Western bank, which would be Moldova in this case. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is the Eastern bank, hence the name.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
You know Middlesex sounds almost exactly like Non Binary, so I salute your ability to bring this whole discussion back to trans.
With just a soupçon of country cricket as well, to suit all tastes.
According to various people scanning satellite data, part of the Wagner forces are already in Tula, which is only about 180km from Moscow, or about 110 miles.
Putin really is in trouble.
Are they in Tula or Tula Oblast? The latter wouldn't be a surprise as they were reported in Yelets about an hour ago. PS. Am surprised at the relatively short distances involved. I suppose we always think of Russia West to East.
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Transnistria!
Cisnistria
No it's the other side of the [D]niester river. Cisnistria would be the Western bank, which would be Moldova in this case. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is the Eastern bank, hence the name.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
Well its Transnistria from our point of view, but Cisnistria from theirs. Indeed, I think that's what they call it.
This person tends to give correct reports from sattelite data, so if right the Wagner forces are only the distance away from the blessed Margaret's place in Grantham to London, which in a country as huge as Russia is like being, literally, next door. It's also another source claiming the Wagner forces are aiming to secure nuclear sites, if you read down.
According to various people scanning satellite data, part of the Wagner forces are already in Tula, which is only about 180km from Moscow, or about 110 miles.
Putin really is in trouble.
Are they in Tula or Tula Oblast? The latter wouldn't be a surprise as they were reported in Yelets about an hour ago. PS. Am surprised at the relatively short distances involved. I suppose we always think of Russia West to East.
Rostov to Moscow is around 1,200km by road. Average 80kph and it’s 15 hours.
Whoever runs that account, is having a lot of fun today.
It looks to have a limited lifespan, so making the most of it...
I wondered if whoever runs it realised quite how it would end up, given it started back in 2012.
It very much reminds me of Sauron's blog: https://saurons.home.blog/ which is a hilarious alternative history of Middle Earth from Sauron's perspective.
The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow
1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious
2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?
3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??
It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.
Why did they mutiny?
Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
It wasn't called Petrograd till 1924
1914
St Pedro'sburg to 1914 Petrograd 1914 to 1924 Leningrad 1924 to 1991 St Pedro'sburg from 1991
The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow
1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious
2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?
3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??
It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.
Why did they mutiny?
Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
It wasn't called Petrograd till 1924
1914
St Pedro'sburg to 1914 Petrograd 1914 to 1924 Leningrad 1924 to 1991 St Pedro'sburg from 1991
Whatever they call it it’s one of my favourite cities and hope one day to be able to go back if things become vaguely sane again.
On topic (for which I apologise), I see the LibDems in Somerton & Frome have been pumping out a local fake newspaper, the Somerset Clarion. Some irony in that the Clarion tradition was firmly socialist...
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Transnistria!
Cisnistria
No it's the other side of the [D]niester river. Cisnistria would be the Western bank, which would be Moldova in this case. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is the Eastern bank, hence the name.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
Hertfordshire in the way?
Mercia. IIRC Mercia extended to London, and the Thames was the border. And Londoners then as now thought they were the centre of the cosmos.
Mercia gets its name from is being a border territory. Mercia has the same root as "march" as in the Welsh Marches, marquis (=lord of the border country), and Mersey (=border river, which was also the border of... Mercia!)
I thought the Mercians started at the Trent and then moved to Tamworth. Kind of thought the border inherent in “Mercia” was indeed the Marches.
This person tends to give correct reports from sattelite data, so if right the Wagner forces are only the distance away from the blessed Margaret's place in Grantham to London, which in a country as huge as Russia is like being, literally, next door.
If they're north of Tula already then they're almost at Moscow and will be there, unless they stop, in only a few hours.
Have to echo what @rcs1000 said, this site is well ahead of the media. Got the BBC on for the first time in forever, News 24, and the reporting there is running about 6 hours behind us.
According to various people scanning satellite data, part of the Wagner forces are already in Tula, which is only about 180km from Moscow, or about 110 miles.
Putin really is in trouble.
Come on, feet, start moving Got to get me there…
Twenty-five miles from Moscow My feet are hurting mighty bad Now, I've been walking for three days and two lonely nights You know that I'm mighty mad, huh
I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.
A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.
Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.
Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.
The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.
Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.
Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.
So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.
In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.
In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.
Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
Just so. The last Russian civil war lasted 6 years, caused c.1.5m deaths and the US and UK backed the losing side.
This person tends to give correct reports from sattelite data, so if right the Wagner forces are only the distance away from the blessed Margaret's place in Grantham to London, which in a country as huge as Russia is like being, literally, next door.
If they're north of Tula already then they're almost at Moscow and will be there, unless they stop, in only a few hours.
Have to echo what @rcs1000 said, this site is well ahead of the media. Got the BBC on for the first time in forever, News 24, and the reporting there is running about 6 hours behind us.
I’m also watching BBC World News, and they had a guy going into maps of the area and the road to Moscow. But they’ve been re-running the same report for the last three hours!
The Kalinauski Regiment and the Belarusian government in exile have issued a declaration to the Belarusian armed forces and the people of the country to begin a new uprising to overthrow the dictator an end Russian control in the country.
Zhive Belarus!
They are the world's longest serving Government-in-exile, since 1919.
On topic (for which I apologise), I see the LibDems in Somerton & Frome have been pumping out a local fake newspaper, the Somerset Clarion. Some irony in that the Clarion tradition was firmly socialist...
On topic (for which I apologise), I see the LibDems in Somerton & Frome have been pumping out a local fake newspaper, the Somerset Clarion. Some irony in that the Clarion tradition was firmly socialist...
How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well
The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
and Mayfair and Kyiv and Georgia and Luhansk [clunk gasp crack] and Donetsk and Washington and Crimea and
Transnistria!
Cisnistria
No it's the other side of the [D]niester river. Cisnistria would be the Western bank, which would be Moldova in this case. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is the Eastern bank, hence the name.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
Well its Transnistria from our point of view, but Cisnistria from theirs. Indeed, I think that's what they call it.
"Middle East" from our point of view, "West Asia" from anywhere east of Iran.
Comments
His prescience continues to be unmatched.
(Also. Mark Thatcher says hello.)
here's a map: https://liveuamap.com/#
Prigozhin was almost certainly telling the truth about seriously undermanned regiments with the generals pocketing the wages of phantom soldiers too.
🇷🇺⚡️HEAVY TRAFFIC OF RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT HIGH-PROFILE OFFICIALS TO ST. PETERSBURG AWAY FROM MOSCOW
https://twitter.com/battlesintel/status/1672606916927713280?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Which makes sense
I wondered if whoever runs it realised quite how it would end up, given it started back in 2012.
Maybe Putin's last stand ?
Prigozhin knows better. He doesn't want to return to a frontline against Western weapons.
Fighting in Africa is more profitable and fun than dying in Ukraine. Being the next President of Russia, safe in Moscow, is probably even more profitable.
and disrupt day to day running of the city.
Chechens v Wagner around Rostov.
Wagner v Putinist Loyalist remnants south of Moscow.
Angry Patriots threatening to mobilise God knows where.
And the bulk of the Army in Ukraine.
How did Russia collapse?
Very slowly then in under a day.
Kind of them to do it on a weekend when I'm able to be Online
Not Poland, you understand. I mean the frozen north. Perhaps Russia can win a war against some arctic mackerel or something.
Thank God the Finns joined NATO
Grant Mitchell (TM) has been seeing the war as lost for a while. Been building up supplies and accreting allies. He’s gone for it now - maybe because it became obvious what he was doing, but before the Ukrainian advance gets through the minefields that are slowing them down at the moment. Once they hit open country it’s going to be Musical Box time, probably.
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1672607862994923520
Either that, or Northern Gas Networks cocking up again.
(per Wiki) ... so yeah!
I don't believe you're truly hoping for it either. What you want to see is just enough internal shit in Russia to get them to quit Ukraine and not a penny more. I'd like to see that too but it depends on how much 'shit' it takes. I'm certainly not about to 'hope' for the ruination and collapse of Russia, or the deaths of millions of Russian people. Putin is 100% to blame, he started this war, but I don't feel the suffering of Russians counts as nothing compared to Ukrainians.
Where are all the troops ? There must be at least some not in Ukraine.
Just came back to mind in terms of the speed of events.
Next week. We have Wessex, Sussex, Essex, Middlesex but no Norrex. Why not?
Not the actions of a confident regime.
""We are little-by-little running out of popcorn,” jokes Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister.
Every answer he is giving is exactly the same no matter what the question. Even the phrasing is the same.
Clearly Leon is right and aliens have swapped him out for one of their androids.
Mind you, if that is the best they can come up with then they are pretty crap technologically
Zhive Belarus!
Putin really is in trouble.
Ukrainians are the victims in this, not Russia. Seeing a continuation of war crimes in Ukraine is not something to desire, to avoid a collapse of Russia.
Even Russia quitting Ukraine and "not a penny more" leaves Putin's fascist regime in charge of Russia and repressing Russia's people.
A relatively peaceful overthrow of Putin is more desirable than a protracted civil war, sure, but either of a simply overthrow or a civil war are infinitely preferable to seeing Russia continue invading other nations.
https://twitter.com/Lib_Dem_Watch/status/1672588593594871808
There’s a genuine feeling that the war in Ukraine could be over in days or even hours.
The latter wouldn't be a surprise as they were reported in Yelets about an hour ago.
PS. Am surprised at the relatively short distances involved.
I suppose we always think of Russia West to East.
https://twitter.com/WarMach18898344/status/1672611809323532288
https://wisden.com/matches/scorecard/191619/new-zealand-women-v-england-women-at-christchurch-only-test-16-18-feb-1935
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/65032554
As soon as Leon gets excited about anything it's time to admit defeat. If he told me it was raining I would go outside and check
Petrograd 1914 to 1924
Leningrad 1924 to 1991
St Pedro'sburg from 1991
Have to echo what @rcs1000 said, this site is well ahead of the media. Got the BBC on for the first time in forever, News 24, and the reporting there is running about 6 hours behind us.
Got to get me there…
Twenty-five miles from Moscow
My feet are hurting mighty bad
Now, I've been walking for three days and two lonely nights
You know that I'm mighty mad, huh
This thread has fled to St Petersburg