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The July 20th by-elections – latest betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Theshard said:

    boulay said:

    Theshard said:

    ydoethur said:

    Theshard said:

    Leon said:

    They seem very certain



    BREAKING:

    Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St. Petersburg.

    Looks like he is fleeing from the advancing Wagner Group military column


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672572459076206592?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Dont get too excited men. Go to your local crack open a beer and ogle the beautiful women. If you get lonely i know someone good who charges 300 an hour.
    That's what she tells you.

    For everyone else it's £50.
    Russian prostitutes are known as the best throughout the world.
    Good to see a young man praise his mother.
    Do you have any sense of morality or decency.
    Was fun while it lasted... Hasta La Vista!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Sandpit said:

    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in the Oval Office this afternoon.

    G7 defence ministers, have apparently just been on a conference call.
    "You seen this shit?"
    "I know man, f*cking hilarious"
    "Best day in ages"
    "But...nukes?"
    "Hmm, yes yes, this is serious".
    "Very serious, but...?"
    "Ok, we can laugh for a bit, and worry tomorrow"
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,139
    edited June 2023
    Putin escaping to Siberia would not be good.

    Although, his underground city designed to survive any kind of war is not there, as I rember. Maybe he's just literally on the run, rather than moving to any alternative command centre.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Aw, in the interest of ongoing events, couldn’t we have kept him a little longer?

    He made it to three hours and fifty posts.

    Not sure whether that was because we were having so much fun or whether RCS was having a day off, but it's still an impressive record.
    He even got away with a direct insult at a mod

    I kinda liked him, partly because he was so confused and crap. He went from saying it was all nothing to furiously blaming the CIA for destroying Russia - in about 90 minutes
    Wonder if we'll get one next week?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    In a new post, Prigozhin acknowledges that raids on his offices are turning up large stores of cash. He says openly that this is Wagner's slush money, allocated for all its special ops around the world. Is he hinting that he can blow the lid on Russia's dirty deals abroad?
    https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672585054386634752

    Just getting his account out first.
    But it’s a mark of the belated and feeble response to the coup attempt. Completely ineffective propaganda, as the tanks continue to roll.
  • Putin heading to Siberia *would not be good*.

    🤨

    Putin fleeing would not be good.
    Russian civil war would not be good.

    Just what would be good in your eyes?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Euromaidan Press
    @EuromaidanPress
    ·
    30m
    Putin tried to negotiate with Prigozhin, unsuccessfully – Russian media
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    edited June 2023

    ydoethur said:

    So Putin has failed to match Stalin, who could have been said to be supreme leader for 24 years and five months ish.

    Putin managed twenty three and six.

    Otoh Wagner might be in the record books as the first Nazi army to reach Moscow.
    Today is exactly the 211th anniversary of Napoleon crossing the Niemen into Russia (and Barbarossa set out on the 22nd).

    I hope Prighozin has factored General Winter into his thinking.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    Can we please unban RussiaBot? Will be funny.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Euromaidan Press
    @EuromaidanPress
    ·
    30m
    Putin tried to negotiate with Prigozhin, unsuccessfully – Russian media

    That's an interesting report to have from Russian media, given it makes Putin look weak and ineffectual.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Was this all an incredibly clever piece of theatre?

    "Ukraine advertises a 'new offensive'
    Wagner uses it to demand resources & ammo
    Ukr offensive doesn't happen, Wagner stockpiles
    Wagner launches coup
    This has been in the works for months"

    https://twitter.com/JHartley2/status/1672586616634744832?s=20


  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Farooq said:

    WillG said:

    Theshard said:

    boulay said:

    Theshard said:

    ydoethur said:

    Theshard said:

    Leon said:

    They seem very certain



    BREAKING:

    Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St. Petersburg.

    Looks like he is fleeing from the advancing Wagner Group military column


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672572459076206592?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Dont get too excited men. Go to your local crack open a beer and ogle the beautiful women. If you get lonely i know someone good who charges 300 an hour.
    That's what she tells you.

    For everyone else it's £50.
    Russian prostitutes are known as the best throughout the world.
    Good to see a young man praise his mother.
    Do you have any sense of morality or decency.
    Yes, we do. We are the British and you should NEVER HAVE FUCKED WITH US. Putin has found out what Napoleon, Wilhelm and Hitler found out before us. FUCK AROUND AND FIND OUT.

    THIS IS LITVINENKO'S REVENGE.
    What makes you think we've got anything to do with this?
    The fact we have been training Ukrainian military forces since 2014 and the Russian invasion ground to a meat grinding halt as a result.
  • Miklosvar said:

    ydoethur said:

    So Putin has failed to match Stalin, who could have been said to be supreme leader for 24 years and five months ish.

    Putin managed twenty three and six.

    Otoh Wagner might be in the record books as the first Nazi army to reach Moscow.
    Today is exactly the 111th anniversary of Napoleon crossing the Niemen into Russia (and Barbarossa set out on the 22nd).

    I hope Prighozin has factored General Winter into his thinking.
    General Winter was killed at the frontline fighting Ukraine.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Cookie said:

    Anyway, friends, look where I am:
    imaget/5020679/uploads/editor/0h/s4fpus35cci3.jpg" alt="" />


    STOCKPORT. Believe the hype.


    I can die happy now :)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,139
    edited June 2023

    Putin heading to Siberia *would not be good*.

    🤨

    Putin fleeing would not be good.
    Russian civil war would not be good.

    Just what would be good in your eyes?
    Quick takeover by Progozhin/A.N. other thug, quick withdrawal from Ukraine, tea and sandwiches by 4.

    I want to get out and enjoy the summer weekend.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Fighterbomber: "Wagner has speed, it's moving through unsecured areas, our generals are unable to respond:

    "The most basic and most powerful weapon that Wagner has is speed.

    While our fathers-commanders decide where to strike, the column is already a hundred kilometers to the north, demolishing ridiculous cars with sand and other keeper tapes.

    There are no mines on the roads, bridges are open, no orders have been brought to a bunch of units at all, and so on. It is clear that in a couple of days the commanders will tighten up, but Wagner will not wait for this moment.
    The inertia of our generals, of course, was taken into account by Wagner in their plan.

    And yes, I keep forgetting to say. If you think that I am for one of the parties, you are mistaken. I know perfectly well that both sides are absolutely matched for each other. Bellends on both sides. And they equally give a fuck about our problems. I am for Russia, and only for it.

    But today there is no choice. Today, everyone who fights against our army is our enemy. The only defense and support of our country is our army and navy. And the enemy must be destroyed.

    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672580127807483906
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Miklosvar said:

    ydoethur said:

    So Putin has failed to match Stalin, who could have been said to be supreme leader for 24 years and five months ish.

    Putin managed twenty three and six.

    Otoh Wagner might be in the record books as the first Nazi army to reach Moscow.
    Today is exactly the 111th anniversary of Napoleon crossing the Niemen into Russia (and Barbarossa set out on the 22nd).

    I hope Prighozin has factored General Winter into his thinking.
    General Winter was killed at the frontline fighting Ukraine.
    He was always drunk anyway.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Nigelb said:

    In a new post, Prigozhin acknowledges that raids on his offices are turning up large stores of cash. He says openly that this is Wagner's slush money, allocated for all its special ops around the world. Is he hinting that he can blow the lid on Russia's dirty deals abroad?
    https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672585054386634752

    Just getting his account out first.
    But it’s a mark of the belated and feeble response to the coup attempt. Completely ineffective propaganda, as the tanks continue to roll.

    Publicizing the finds, just tells the troops he can afford their wages. very feeble.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Anyway, with apologies to all the beautiful women, I have to go do some gardening.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    Be fascinating to be a fly on the wall in the Oval Office this afternoon.

    They can stand down all the secret weapons developed in black programmes from recovered UFOs. Russia is going to defeat itself.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    They seem very certain



    BREAKING:

    Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St. Petersburg.

    Looks like he is fleeing from the advancing Wagner Group military column


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672572459076206592?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Disappointing he's not going to singlehandedly defend Moscow half-naked on horseback.
    He's going to struggle to do that while remaining a full table length from all enemies.
    Maybe he has an extra long rapier.
    All the evidence I have seen is it's actually very, very small...oh, that wasn't a euphemism?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    One of these is not like the others

  • Putin heading to Siberia *would not be good*.

    🤨

    Putin fleeing would not be good.
    Russian civil war would not be good.

    Just what would be good in your eyes?
    Quick takeover by Progozhin/A.N. other thug, quick withdrawal from Ukraine, tea and sandwiches by 4.

    I want to get out and enjoy the summer weekend.
    Putin fleeing would be a part of a quick takeover would it not? So why would it be *not good*?
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Ah can we have BeautifulWomanMan make please, he was bantz
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Nigelb said:

    Anyway, with apologies to all the beautiful women, I have to go do some gardening.

    Gardening… is like making love to a beautiful woman…
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Aren't shards what you get as a byproduct of flint knapping?

    Just a thought...
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    So it looks like if you want to take Moscow you get a chef to do it, not a paper hanger or a Corsican dwarf. I thought Under Seige was a ridiculous concept but old Prigozhin has proven me wrong.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    kle4 said:

    One of these is not like the others

    BillyNoMates obviously refers to Sunak. What's Suga got to do with Putin?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    kle4 said:

    One of these is not like the others

    To be fair the abuse at Billy Nomates was out of order. She was brilliant and didn’t deserve any of it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    boulay said:

    So it looks like if you want to take Moscow you get a chef to do it, not a paper hanger or a Corsican dwarf. I thought Under Seige was a ridiculous concept but old Prigozhin has proven me wrong.

    He's cooked up Putin's desserts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited June 2023
    In important news, Australia have taken an England wicket at Trent Bridge.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/65032554
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,056
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Theshard said:

    superiority and the ability to discover and destroy enemy troop concentrations and supply depots får behind the frontline. Good Russian reconnaissance makes strategic, and often even tactical, surprise nearly impossible. Russia also have a clear advantage in artillery. Russian air superiority and good reconnaissance makes Ukrainian attacks very hard. Especially since there are enormous amounts of mines everywhere. The UkrAF also seems to lack good Air Defence at the frontline. Russian losses of aircrafts has been very low. When Ukrainian ground units attack they must attack through mine fields since they can't demine them in advance due to Russian fire control. Ukrainian forces can't concentrate in huge numbers since they will be discovered in advance if they do that. The Ukrainians have to rush through the minefields with limited resources and hope that their follow up reinforcements don't get to mauled by Russian air power and artillery. If the Ukrainian forces are strong enough RuAF retreat and their old positions become an artillery trap. After a while the newly captured Ukrainian position is transformed to a moon landscape and Russian forces counterattack. Mostly they succeeds in recapturing lost territory and the Ukrainians withdraw. Sometimes Ukrainian units hold on to newly captured positions and move the frontline one or two kilometers, but to a high price. During these 19 days Ukraine has fought an uphill battle, which seemed doomed from the start. The result is probably clearly higher casualties among the Ukrainians, than by the Russian side. This means that UkrAF becomes weaker in comparison to the RuAF. That's one goal not achieved. If the other goals where successful you could accept normal losses, but that's not the case. Ukrainian territorial gains, both on the Southern and Eastern fronts has been minimal and nothing indicates that will change. That in combination with high losses, especially losses on video, destroys all possibility of a propaganda victory. Now Ukraine must try to hide the failed counteroffensive by denying it's existence and downplaying the losses. Ukraine and its supporters still dominate western media so they might have some success there. But doubts will grow even in the west, that the war is winnable and worth spending huge resources on.

    RusGPT not brilliant is it.
    About as good as some incoherent drivel this morning, clearly produced by AI, claiming 20% of public sector workers did nothing and could be sacked without there being any difference to public services.
    What do we do today that we didn't do in 2015 that requires 1m more people to be employed by the state? I'm not suggesting we go to 1980s level of staffing, just back to 2015.
    First, the population is larger and older.

    Second, we Brexited, so a whole lot of activities that were efficiently pooled with other EU countries have had to be replicated locally, plus we need more border staff without free trade.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,139
    edited June 2023

    Putin heading to Siberia *would not be good*.

    🤨

    Putin fleeing would not be good.
    Russian civil war would not be good.

    Just what would be good in your eyes?
    Quick takeover by Progozhin/A.N. other thug, quick withdrawal from Ukraine, tea and sandwiches by 4.

    I want to get out and enjoy the summer weekend.
    Putin fleeing would be a part of a quick takeover would it not? So why would it be *not good*?
    That's true, but if he escapes within Russia, that potentially presents a less certain outcome than him being caught, or stuck in Moscow.

    That's all I meant really, by that.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    WillG said:

    Farooq said:

    WillG said:

    Theshard said:

    boulay said:

    Theshard said:

    ydoethur said:

    Theshard said:

    Leon said:

    They seem very certain



    BREAKING:

    Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St. Petersburg.

    Looks like he is fleeing from the advancing Wagner Group military column


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672572459076206592?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Dont get too excited men. Go to your local crack open a beer and ogle the beautiful women. If you get lonely i know someone good who charges 300 an hour.
    That's what she tells you.

    For everyone else it's £50.
    Russian prostitutes are known as the best throughout the world.
    Good to see a young man praise his mother.
    Do you have any sense of morality or decency.
    Yes, we do. We are the British and you should NEVER HAVE FUCKED WITH US. Putin has found out what Napoleon, Wilhelm and Hitler found out before us. FUCK AROUND AND FIND OUT.

    THIS IS LITVINENKO'S REVENGE.
    What makes you think we've got anything to do with this?
    The fact we have been training Ukrainian military forces since 2014 and the Russian invasion ground to a meat grinding halt as a result.
    The Budapest memorandum. We owe the Ukrainians, and punish the Russian betrayal of the treaty. No formal declaration of war, but a sure and certain defeat for Russia, eventually.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Why the hell not?

    Why would you prefer an authoritarian Russian unitary state to continue oppressing its people, sending its own people to the meat grinder, and committing war crimes in European nations instead of them fighting each other?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    One of these is not like the others

    To be fair the abuse at Billy Nomates was out of order. She was brilliant and didn’t deserve any of it.
    As was Rick Astley earlier - would have been a better headliner than Arctic Monkeys were yesterday - turned off and watch Death of Stalin after 2 minutes.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    RSD629 on approach to St Petersburg

    And it's turned! Now heading towards Narva... a bit weird
    It's one of the approach paths to Pulkovo.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Readout from the COBRA meeting

    "Rishi Sunak is aware of the situation in Russia. He is unable to say if it is a coup or not."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    If any far eastern Oblasts would like to declare independence now might be the time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    RSD697 definitely switched off its transponder half way to St P, and has ‘disappeared’ as far as secondary radar is concerned. That one was the four-engined Russian government VIP plane, on which Putin usually travels.

    Possibilities are:
    1. That’s Putin’s plane, and it’s going where the rest of the Russian VIP jet fleet are going, St Petersberg.
    2. That’s Putin’s plane, and he’s going somewhere else.
    3. That’s not Putin’s plane, it’s a decoy and he’s on one of the other ones to St P.
    4. That’s not Putin’s plane, and he’s going somewhere else.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    So it looks like if you want to take Moscow you get a chef to do it, not a paper hanger or a Corsican dwarf. I thought Under Seige was a ridiculous concept but old Prigozhin has proven me wrong.

    He's cooked up Putin's desserts.
    With any luck he can organise a spit-roast for vlad…
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    eek said:

    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    One of these is not like the others

    To be fair the abuse at Billy Nomates was out of order. She was brilliant and didn’t deserve any of it.
    As was Rick Astley earlier - would have been a better headliner than Arctic Monkeys were yesterday - turned off and watch Death of Stalin after 2 minutes.
    Rly?

    I was just listening in the car and thinking, Live acts are overrated, just put it on spotify, and then I heard Bet That You Look Good from yesterday which I thought was absolutely bangin.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Video apparently showing Russians resisting Wagner. Hmm. Looks like one angry drunk to me

    Definite explosions in the background tho. I suspect this is Rostov

    https://twitter.com/RafaaSeddiki/status/1672589714837078017?s=20


    AAAARGH, I have to go for a picnic in the park with pals. Normally that would be ace, but this news is SO COMPELLING
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Miklosvar said:

    eek said:

    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    One of these is not like the others

    To be fair the abuse at Billy Nomates was out of order. She was brilliant and didn’t deserve any of it.
    As was Rick Astley earlier - would have been a better headliner than Arctic Monkeys were yesterday - turned off and watch Death of Stalin after 2 minutes.
    Rly?

    I was just listening in the car and thinking, Live acts are overrated, just put it on spotify, and then I heard Bet That You Look Good from yesterday which I thought was absolutely bangin.
    The criticisms of the Artic Monkeys were more around the pacing of their songs with a disjointed order. But Gordon Brown absolutely loved it and has been grinning from ear to ear since, so that’s nice.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    kle4 said:

    If any far eastern Oblasts would like to declare independence now might be the time.

    I had no idea you were President Xi!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Perhaps this link may help. It geolocates news reports and displays them on a map.

    https://liveuamap.com/en/time/24.06.2023
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    boulay said:

    Miklosvar said:

    eek said:

    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    One of these is not like the others

    To be fair the abuse at Billy Nomates was out of order. She was brilliant and didn’t deserve any of it.
    As was Rick Astley earlier - would have been a better headliner than Arctic Monkeys were yesterday - turned off and watch Death of Stalin after 2 minutes.
    Rly?

    I was just listening in the car and thinking, Live acts are overrated, just put it on spotify, and then I heard Bet That You Look Good from yesterday which I thought was absolutely bangin.
    The criticisms of the Artic Monkeys were more around the pacing of their songs with a disjointed order. But Gordon Brown absolutely loved it and has been grinning from ear to ear since, so that’s nice.
    The Cure have always been great live.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,665
    boulay said:

    So it looks like if you want to take Moscow you get a chef to do it, not a paper hanger or a Corsican dwarf. I thought Under Seige was a ridiculous concept but old Prigozhin has proven me wrong.

    I wonder what Mr Seagal thinks of his position now?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    If any far eastern Oblasts would like to declare independence now might be the time.

    I had no idea you were President Xi!
    I'm shy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Again, this looks weak rather than scary


    "The Kremlin claims to have the support of Erdogan after informing him about the mutiny in Russia."

    https://twitter.com/KDaures/status/1672590205256122368?s=20


    "Guys, it's all fine, Mrs Erdogan down the road says she's on our side, forget about the burglar in the kitchen"
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    If any far eastern Oblasts would like to declare independence now might be the time.

    I had no idea you were President Xi!
    I'm shy.
    It was pointed out to me some time back that he looks like Winnie the Pooh.

    He also apparently hates having this pointed out.

    Do with that what you will.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    If any far eastern Oblasts would like to declare independence now might be the time.

    I had no idea you were President Xi!
    I'm shy.
    That's not how you pronounce Xi.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Scott_xP said:

    Readout from the COBRA meeting

    "Rishi Sunak is aware of the situation in Russia. He is unable to say if it is a coup or not."

    It's got to the stage where it would be a bit disquieting if he could make up his mind about anything.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    If any far eastern Oblasts would like to declare independence now might be the time.

    I had no idea you were President Xi!
    I'm shy.
    Lib Dems - Winnie-ing here?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    boulay said:

    So it looks like if you want to take Moscow you get a chef to do it, not a paper hanger or a Corsican dwarf. I thought Under Seige was a ridiculous concept but old Prigozhin has proven me wrong.

    I wonder what Mr Seagal thinks of his position now?
    He’s certainly on deadly ground.

    No sympathy for him for ruining Kelly lebrocq.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Miklosvar said:

    eek said:

    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    One of these is not like the others

    To be fair the abuse at Billy Nomates was out of order. She was brilliant and didn’t deserve any of it.
    As was Rick Astley earlier - would have been a better headliner than Arctic Monkeys were yesterday - turned off and watch Death of Stalin after 2 minutes.
    Rly?

    I was just listening in the car and thinking, Live acts are overrated, just put it on spotify, and then I heard Bet That You Look Good from yesterday which I thought was absolutely bangin.
    The criticisms of the Artic Monkeys were more around the pacing of their songs with a disjointed order. But Gordon Brown absolutely loved it and has been grinning from ear to ear since, so that’s nice.
    The Cure have always been great live.
    Absolutely the best live band and their Glastonbury shows have just been perfect. Very tight musically and have no shame playing their back catalogue.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    Its not a coup, its merely a special military operation against the Nazis....
  • Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Readout from the COBRA meeting

    "Rishi Sunak is aware of the situation in Russia. He is unable to say if it is a coup or not."

    It's got to the stage where it would be a bit disquieting if he could make up his mind about anything.
    Its interesting that our Russian friend this morning was blaming the 'cia' rather than the British that the Russians have been blaming things on normally.

    Should we read into that, that even Russian trolls don't take Sunak seriously? ;)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Betty Snowball's record score of 189 for England is under threat from Tammy Beaumont.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    War Monitor
    @WarMonitors
    ·
    6m
    ⚡️Wagner reinforcements still coming into Rostov



    If Russian miliary kit is pouring out of Ukraine and into southern Russia, to take on Putin, then that has to weaken Russia IN Ukraine, meaning the Ukes can advance


    https://twitter.com/ARISTEABRAZIOTI/status/1672591255925145600?s=20
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    If any far eastern Oblasts would like to declare independence now might be the time.

    I had no idea you were President Xi!
    I'm shy.
    It was pointed out to me some time back that he looks like Winnie the Pooh.

    He also apparently hates having this pointed out.

    Do with that what you will.
    John Oliver had this one five years ago:
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=OubM8bD9kck (from 10:50 in)

    Yes, Winnie is banned in China, for exactly that reason.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Andy_JS said:

    Betty Snowball's record score of 189 for England is under threat from Tammy Beaumont.

    There isn’t a chance in hell of that happening.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,056
    Civilians in Rostov giving food and water to Wagner troops

    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672551944039145474
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,360
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.

    In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.

    In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.

    Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @annmarie
    Putin hits the phones— He discussed the situation with Turkish President Erdogan, who expressed “complete support” for the Russian authorities, per the Kremlin. Putin also spoke with Belarus President Lukashenko, per Belta news & with his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,139
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:


    War Monitor
    @WarMonitors
    ·
    6m
    ⚡️Wagner reinforcements still coming into Rostov



    If Russian miliary kit is pouring out of Ukraine and into southern Russia, to take on Putin, then that has to weaken Russia IN Ukraine, meaning the Ukes can advance


    https://twitter.com/ARISTEABRAZIOTI/status/1672591255925145600?s=20

    Leon said:


    War Monitor
    @WarMonitors
    ·
    6m
    ⚡️Wagner reinforcements still coming into Rostov



    If Russian miliary kit is pouring out of Ukraine and into southern Russia, to take on Putin, then that has to weaken Russia IN Ukraine, meaning the Ukes can advance


    https://twitter.com/ARISTEABRAZIOTI/status/1672591255925145600?s=20

    If Progozhin doesn't, really , care about the war in Ukraine, or certainly not as much as Putin. capturing Moscow is obviously going to be a much higher priority. In contrast, Putin was willing to stake almost everything for Ukraine.

    That would also seem to point to the historical pattern that people have noticed and mentioned, too ; a war outside than moving a focus to within Russia itself.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.

    If the choice is Russians fighting Ukrainians, or Russians fighting Russians, then I unabashedly support the latter.

    Don't you?
    It depends on what 'Russians fighting Russians' entails. The scale and nature of it. Where it leads. Of course it depends! Being pro Ukraine doesn't mean absolutely nothing else matters. Why should it?

    I'm sorry but I stick to my assessment of the sort of stuff you're coming out with, eg this latest 'omelettes and eggs' remark when it comes to wars, civil or otherwise. It's heartless, it's blase, it's juvenile.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    I wonder what side the Chechnyans will take?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Scott_xP said:

    @annmarie
    Putin hits the phones— He discussed the situation with Turkish President Erdogan, who expressed “complete support” for the Russian authorities, per the Kremlin. Putin also spoke with Belarus President Lukashenko, per Belta news & with his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

    The Kazakh guy told him to Go Fish, apparently
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    RobD said:

    Aw, in the interest of ongoing events, couldn’t we have kept him a little longer?

    No, even piss-poor Putin-bots needed at the front right now!

    Wherever that is?
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.

    If the choice is Russians fighting Ukrainians, or Russians fighting Russians, then I unabashedly support the latter.

    Don't you?
    It depends on what 'Russians fighting Russians' entails. The scale and nature of it. Where it leads. Of course it depends! Being pro Ukraine doesn't mean absolutely nothing else matters. Why should it?

    I'm sorry but I stick to my assessment of the sort of stuff you're coming out with, eg this latest 'omelettes and eggs' remark when it comes to wars, civil or otherwise. It's heartless, it's blase, it's juvenile.
    No, it doesn't depend.

    Russia is the aggressor here. There is no "both sides" about this, no equivocation.

    Russians fighting Russians is unequivocally and entirely better than Russians killing Ukrainians.

    Your lack of morals and humanity here is deeply troubling.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,056

    I wonder what side the Chechnyans will take?

    Kadyrov has pledged his support for Putin.

    Whether that pledge is worth anything…
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,360
    Sixteen months...


  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.

    If the choice is Russians fighting Ukrainians, or Russians fighting Russians, then I unabashedly support the latter.

    Don't you?
    It depends on what 'Russians fighting Russians' entails. The scale and nature of it. Where it leads. Of course it depends! Being pro Ukraine doesn't mean absolutely nothing else matters. Why should it?

    I'm sorry but I stick to my assessment of the sort of stuff you're coming out with, eg this latest 'omelettes and eggs' remark when it comes to wars, civil or otherwise. It's heartless, it's blase, it's juvenile.
    No, it doesn't depend.

    Russia is the aggressor here. There is no "both sides" about this, no equivocation.

    Russians fighting Russians is unequivocally and entirely better than Russians killing Ukrainians.

    Your lack of morals and humanity here is deeply troubling.
    Oh, do give over

    @kinabalu is merely expressing understandable concern at the possible negative consequences of all out civil war: in a nuclear armed state with a history of brutal violence within and without

    It must be weird living in your black and white world
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited June 2023
    Parody, but if they thought they could manage it without too much blowback...

    Xi Jinping says China is closely monitoring situation in Russia, notes Vladivostok is historical Chinese territory
    https://twitter.com/Sputnik_Not/status/1672583519132942339?cxt=HHwWhoC8sar2mrYuAAAA

    Territorial acquisitiveness does seem to be making a comeback.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    I wonder what side the Chechnyans will take?

    Kadyrov has pledged his support for Putin.

    Whether that pledge is worth anything…
    His pledge of support, is to whatever serves him best at that moment.

    If, in a few hours’ time, he’s personally better off pledging support to someone else…
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.

    In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.

    In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.

    Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
    Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    If Putin has really left Moscow by plane already, with the convoy maybe half a day away, doesn't that mean he's afraid that the troops in Moscow will go over to the other side even before Wagner gets there?

    It's hardly as though Wagner has an air force to intercept him if he tries to go any later.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Aw, in the interest of ongoing events, couldn’t we have kept him a little longer?

    No, even piss-poor Putin-bots needed at the front right now!

    Wherever that is?
    In Russia, the front line gets sent to you
    NYT reporting that "military forces were seen moving north from Voronezh".

    NORTH on road to Moscow, from town closer to Moscow than it is to Rostov-on-Don.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,056
    .
    kle4 said:

    Parody, but if they thought they could manage it without too much blowback...

    Xi Jinping says China is closely monitoring situation in Russia, notes Vladivostok is historical Chinese territory
    https://twitter.com/Sputnik_Not/status/1672583519132942339?cxt=HHwWhoC8sar2mrYuAAAA

    Territorial acquisitiveness does seem to be making a comeback.

    It won’t be territorial acquisitiveness. It will be a peacekeeping force in a buffer zone, there to protect the Russian people.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Sandpit said:

    I wonder what side the Chechnyans will take?

    Kadyrov has pledged his support for Putin.

    Whether that pledge is worth anything…
    His pledge of support, is to whatever serves him best at that moment.

    If, in a few hours’ time, he’s personally better off pledging support to someone else…
    For in my faith and fealty
    I never more will falter
    And Vlad my lawful Prez shall be
    Until the times are Wagner.
  • Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.

    If the choice is Russians fighting Ukrainians, or Russians fighting Russians, then I unabashedly support the latter.

    Don't you?
    It depends on what 'Russians fighting Russians' entails. The scale and nature of it. Where it leads. Of course it depends! Being pro Ukraine doesn't mean absolutely nothing else matters. Why should it?

    I'm sorry but I stick to my assessment of the sort of stuff you're coming out with, eg this latest 'omelettes and eggs' remark when it comes to wars, civil or otherwise. It's heartless, it's blase, it's juvenile.
    No, it doesn't depend.

    Russia is the aggressor here. There is no "both sides" about this, no equivocation.

    Russians fighting Russians is unequivocally and entirely better than Russians killing Ukrainians.

    Your lack of morals and humanity here is deeply troubling.
    Oh, do give over

    @kinabalu is merely expressing understandable concern at the possible negative consequences of all out civil war: in a nuclear armed state with a history of brutal violence within and without

    It must be weird living in your black and white world
    Oh go BRACE yourself.

    Conflicts happen in nuclear armed states, see Pakistan.

    Whether there's negative consequences or not, them fighting each other is unequivocally better than them fighting Ukrainians.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,360
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.

    In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.

    In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.

    Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
    Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
    You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.

    So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,360
    Chris said:

    If Putin has really left Moscow by plane already, with the convoy maybe half a day away, doesn't that mean he's afraid that the troops in Moscow will go over to the other side even before Wagner gets there?

    It's hardly as though Wagner has an air force to intercept him if he tries to go any later.

    Wagner has anti-aircraft missile systems that they've used to take down several Russian aircraft already. You don't need an airforce to make flying very dangerous.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Chris said:

    If Putin has really left Moscow by plane already, with the convoy maybe half a day away, doesn't that mean he's afraid that the troops in Moscow will go over to the other side even before Wagner gets there?

    It's hardly as though Wagner has an air force to intercept him if he tries to go any later.

    I know it is not his style, but I feel like Putin being doing a Zelensky right now, getting his face out there. I know it is day 1, but it's 24 hour news thesedays, it seems weird to drop off the radar after the morning announcement.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Aw, in the interest of ongoing events, couldn’t we have kept him a little longer?

    No, even piss-poor Putin-bots needed at the front right now!

    Wherever that is?
    In Russia, the front line gets sent to you
    NYT reporting that "military forces were seen moving north from Voronezh".

    NORTH on road to Moscow, from town closer to Moscow than it is to Rostov-on-Don.
    They’re North of Yelets now, only a couple of hours from the outskirts of Moscow.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    He’s here! But how long?
    DougSeal said:

    I’m at Royal Ascot. The dress code for seals was a bit vague but I’ve done my best.

    No fur, I hope.
  • Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Aw, in the interest of ongoing events, couldn’t we have kept him a little longer?

    No, even piss-poor Putin-bots needed at the front right now!

    Wherever that is?
    In Russia, the front line gets sent to you
    NYT reporting that "military forces were seen moving north from Voronezh".

    NORTH on road to Moscow, from town closer to Moscow than it is to Rostov-on-Don.
    They’re North of Yelets now, only a couple of hours from the outskirts of Moscow.
    Is this even going to take 72 hours?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.

    If the choice is Russians fighting Ukrainians, or Russians fighting Russians, then I unabashedly support the latter.

    Don't you?
    It depends on what 'Russians fighting Russians' entails. The scale and nature of it. Where it leads. Of course it depends! Being pro Ukraine doesn't mean absolutely nothing else matters. Why should it?

    I'm sorry but I stick to my assessment of the sort of stuff you're coming out with, eg this latest 'omelettes and eggs' remark when it comes to wars, civil or otherwise. It's heartless, it's blase, it's juvenile.
    No, it doesn't depend.

    Russia is the aggressor here. There is no "both sides" about this, no equivocation.

    Russians fighting Russians is unequivocally and entirely better than Russians killing Ukrainians.

    Your lack of morals and humanity here is deeply troubling.
    Heartless, blase, juvenile ... and a posturer.

    Keep them coming. We can keep adding. There's scope yet, I think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Doomscrolling war news sounds better.
    Russian state rolling news channel Rossiya 24 isn't ignoring events entirely, but the fact they're currently airing a documentary about Silvio Berlusconi tells you quite a lot
    https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1672587240634036225?cxt=HHwWgsC93fnOnLYuAAAA
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,360

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Aw, in the interest of ongoing events, couldn’t we have kept him a little longer?

    No, even piss-poor Putin-bots needed at the front right now!

    Wherever that is?
    In Russia, the front line gets sent to you
    NYT reporting that "military forces were seen moving north from Voronezh".

    NORTH on road to Moscow, from town closer to Moscow than it is to Rostov-on-Don.
    Reported by Russian milibloggers that they'd made it to Yelets - halfway through the next Oblast to the north - a while ago. They will reach Moscow before dark if they want to. Then we'll see what happens.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836
    edited June 2023

    He’s here! But how long?

    DougSeal said:

    I’m at Royal Ascot. The dress code for seals was a bit vague but I’ve done my best.

    No fur, I hope.
    Hoods, perhaps? But a grey morning suit is a good start.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,258
    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Google maps is telling me about 7.5 hours from Voronezh to Moscow.
    Fastest route avoids road closure in E115.

    If Putin commands the air (looks like he does) then the convoys will be obliterated before they get anywhere near Moscow. Wagner surely have a plan for this. Insurrection at air bases? Aircraft of their own?
    Who knows ?
    It’s basically a battle of confidence at this point. If enough of the regular army stays loyal and fights, it’s over; if they don’t, it’s over for Putin.

    Wagner’s social media game is definitely superior. It’s not impossible for it to be the first military coup where that’s decisive.
    As I recall from previous discussions bombing these convoys from the air is not possible because the precision isn't good enough. That is why the traffic jam in to Kiev last year wasn't just bombed from the air.
    Seems unlikely.
    If you have enough kit, carpeting a road isn’t hard.
    The original Highways of Death were in Normandy in 1944.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited June 2023
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.

    If the choice is Russians fighting Ukrainians, or Russians fighting Russians, then I unabashedly support the latter.

    Don't you?
    It depends on what 'Russians fighting Russians' entails. The scale and nature of it. Where it leads. Of course it depends! Being pro Ukraine doesn't mean absolutely nothing else matters. Why should it?

    I'm sorry but I stick to my assessment of the sort of stuff you're coming out with, eg this latest 'omelettes and eggs' remark when it comes to wars, civil or otherwise. It's heartless, it's blase, it's juvenile.
    No, it doesn't depend.

    Russia is the aggressor here. There is no "both sides" about this, no equivocation.

    Russians fighting Russians is unequivocally and entirely better than Russians killing Ukrainians.

    Your lack of morals and humanity here is deeply troubling.
    Heartless, blase, juvenile ... and a posturer.

    Keep them coming. We can keep adding. There's scope yet, I think.
    You're the heartless one, why are you content to see the war in Ukraine continue?

    What is the downside to the war in Ukraine being over, replaced instead with a civil war in Russia?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.

    In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.

    In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.

    Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
    Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
    You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.

    So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
    Will it? Civil wars are quite capable of spilling over into neighbouring countries. Even if those neighbouring countries are not already occupied.

    I think if I were the Ukrainians I would not be celebrating just yet. It gives them an opportunity, but not a certainty.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989
    Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
This discussion has been closed.