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The July 20th by-elections – latest betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    He’s here! But how long?

    DougSeal said:

    I’m at Royal Ascot. The dress code for seals was a bit vague but I’ve done my best.

    No fur, I hope.
    If you can wear it, they were lion about their rules.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    See, I knew this was not a long term plan, it was very reactive

  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Chris said:

    If Putin has really left Moscow by plane already, with the convoy maybe half a day away, doesn't that mean he's afraid that the troops in Moscow will go over to the other side even before Wagner gets there?

    It's hardly as though Wagner has an air force to intercept him if he tries to go any later.

    For every police, security, military, or paramilitary entity in Russia that Putin might call upon for help he now has to think "will they defend me or detain me?" He's really in very deep trouble.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Spanish_general_election

    3 new Spanish polls. One shows a narrowing PP lead, the other 2 fairly stable. Too early to see if we have a new direction.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    TimS said:

    Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).

    The tank charge from Barnard Castle was a sight to behold.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    edited June 2023
    TimS said:

    Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).

    Warwick rounding on Edward IV.

    Pride's Purge in 1648.

    Less violent, but Macmillan rounding on Eden in 1956 over Suez.
  • As tragic as a Russian Civil War would be for ordinary Russians and how sketchy it could be for the rest of us, I think Russians killing Russians is better than Russians killing Ukrainians. Russia only gets run by whoever has the most guns, so it's not going to end up with them becoming a shining beacon of democracy.
    We'd better buckle up, because if it does go south rapidly, it's going to be a hell of a ride!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    ..
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.

    In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.

    In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.

    Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
    Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
    Just so.
    The last Russian civil war lasted 6 years, caused c.1.5m deaths and the US and UK backed the losing side.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    glw said:

    Chris said:

    If Putin has really left Moscow by plane already, with the convoy maybe half a day away, doesn't that mean he's afraid that the troops in Moscow will go over to the other side even before Wagner gets there?

    It's hardly as though Wagner has an air force to intercept him if he tries to go any later.

    For every police, security, military, or paramilitary entity in Russia that Putin might call upon for help he now has to think "will they defend me or detain me?" He's really in very deep trouble.
    Classic strongman dilemma. Anyone you have to rely upon therefore has power over you, so you cannot fully trust them since if they have that power they could use it to harm you too.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited June 2023

    TimS said:

    Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).

    The tank charge from Barnard Castle was a sight to behold.
    It was initially delayed as he popped out in a Challenger Tank to test his eyesight first....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    felix said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Spanish_general_election

    3 new Spanish polls. One shows a narrowing PP lead, the other 2 fairly stable. Too early to see if we have a new direction.

    When do we start getting polling on raspberries and bananas?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Spanish_general_election

    3 new Spanish polls. One shows a narrowing PP lead, the other 2 fairly stable. Too early to see if we have a new direction.

    When do we start getting polling on raspberries and bananas?
    When somebody has creamed off the rest of the polling.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354
    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    ..

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.

    In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.

    In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.

    Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
    Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
    Just so.
    The last Russian civil war lasted 6 years, caused c.1.5m deaths and the US and UK backed the losing side.
    It caused many more deaths than that if you include the famine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.

    In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.

    In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.

    Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
    Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
    You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.

    So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
    Will it? Civil wars are quite capable of spilling over into neighbouring countries. Even if those neighbouring countries are not already occupied.

    I think if I were the Ukrainians I would not be celebrating just yet. It gives them an opportunity, but not a certainty.
    Ukrainian state forces would naturally exercise more caution than excitable commentators on the internet, I don't think that speaks ill of the latter.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).

    Warwick rounding on Edward IV.

    Pride's Purge in 1648.

    Less violent, but Macmillan rounding on Eden in 1956 over Suez.
    Joseph Chamberlain breaking with Gladstone and Liberals in 1886 over Home Rule for Ireland, and aligning with Conservatives?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    kle4 said:

    See, I knew this was not a long term plan, it was very reactive

    If the tide is about to go out on the Putin state, do we get to see his list of useful idiots?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    edited June 2023

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).

    Warwick rounding on Edward IV.

    Pride's Purge in 1648.

    Less violent, but Macmillan rounding on Eden in 1956 over Suez.
    Joseph Chamberlain breaking with Gladstone and Liberals in 1886 over Home Rule for Ireland, and aligning with Conservatives?
    Or indeed breaking with Devonshire and Balfour over Free Trade in 1903?

    On that subject, maybe Bentinck and Stanley over the Corn Laws?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,665
    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    Well, it could have been the SAS firing on Wagner from the rear...

    I expect some troll has already suggested it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Ricimer and Majorian spring to mind. Or John Tzimisces and Nicephorus II Phocas.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    You misspelled "grown". We're better when we don't fuck other people's countries up.
    We've been busy on our own tbf last few years.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.

    In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.

    In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.

    Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
    Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
    You can't promise that a continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine won't result in further horrors, like the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. So, yes, there are terrible uncertainties in both future scenarios.

    So concentrate on what we know. A civil war in Russia will end the war in Ukraine. That's a good trade in my view.
    Will it? Civil wars are quite capable of spilling over into neighbouring countries. Even if those neighbouring countries are not already occupied.

    I think if I were the Ukrainians I would not be celebrating just yet. It gives them an opportunity, but not a certainty.
    I think that the particular dynamics of the current situation, with relatively so little of Russia's armed forces in Russia, mean that if the rebellion is not settled one way or the other within a week there will be massive withdrawals of Russian forces from Ukraine. Moscow is much more important to both sides in a future Russian civil war than Donetsk.

    And for Ukraine they will know that if they can regain their international borders, and keep their noses out of the Russian civil war, that they could be members of NATO fairly rapidly, and have the security of a few thousand NATO troops ready to defend their territory from any future Russian aggression.

    I don't see the dynamics that would involve Ukraine in a protracted Russian civil war.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Sandpit said:

    Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.

    It's bollocks. They've been firing at each other for months.

    This is a power struggle between Prigozhin and the Russian State and I think he has been preparing for a while. Bakhmut suddenly makes more sense if he was using it to rile his men against the regime.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Sandpit said:

    Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.

    This has been months in the planning.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894
    ydoethur said:

    Theshard said:

    ydoethur said:

    Theshard said:

    Leon said:

    They seem very certain



    BREAKING:

    Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St. Petersburg.

    Looks like he is fleeing from the advancing Wagner Group military column


    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672572459076206592?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Dont get too excited men. Go to your local crack open a beer and ogle the beautiful women. If you get lonely i know someone good who charges 300 an hour.
    That's what she tells you.

    For everyone else it's £50.
    Russian prostitutes are known as the best throughout the world.
    No, no, don't be silly. Turkmenistan's are far better.

    Borat told us so.
    Vladimir Putin described Russian sex workers as the best in the world during the fuss over the Steele dossier's claims about Donald Trump and Obama's bed.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,315

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    RobD said:

    Aw, in the interest of ongoing events, couldn’t we have kept him a little longer?

    No, even piss-poor Putin-bots needed at the front right now!

    Wherever that is?
    In Russia, the front line gets sent to you
    NYT reporting that "military forces were seen moving north from Voronezh".

    NORTH on road to Moscow, from town closer to Moscow than it is to Rostov-on-Don.
    They’re North of Yelets now, only a couple of hours from the outskirts of Moscow.
    Is this even going to take 72 hours?
    The Russian military has apparently blocked the major roads further north with ranks of dump trucks. Whether those will hold, or whether there are any side routes Wagner could take I have no idea though.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited June 2023

    He’s here! But how long?

    DougSeal said:

    I’m at Royal Ascot. The dress code for seals was a bit vague but I’ve done my best.

    No fur, I hope.
    I’ve been here 4 years! No fur, thankfully
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696
    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    And 67 years ago we had the debacle of Suez.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    I wonder if someone is sitting nervously in say, Florida, wondering if Vlad has also kept lots of potentially “awkward” classified docs in his Dacha that have info about a random foreign politician that the Wagner guys will discover.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    You misspelled "grown". We're better when we don't fuck other people's countries up.
    It would be a remarkable group discussing a coup in ancient Welsh.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.

    This has been months in the planning.
    Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited June 2023
    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well

    The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Sandpit said:

    Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufFOghMt1yI
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,665
    edited June 2023
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.

    It's bollocks. They've been firing at each other for months.

    This is a power struggle between Prigozhin and the Russian State and I think he has been preparing for a while. Bakhmut suddenly makes more sense if he was using it to rile his men against the regime.
    Especially if he was using it as an means to stockpile ammunition rather than firing it at the Ukrainians.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    You misspelled "grown". We're better when we don't fuck other people's countries up.
    It would be a remarkable group discussing a coup in ancient Welsh.
    They've played a long game, the ancient welsh. 1500 years or so but they are just about ready to strike back at the anglo-saxon invaders.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078

    kle4 said:

    See, I knew this was not a long term plan, it was very reactive

    If the tide is about to go out on the Putin state, do we get to see his list of useful idiots?
    We do, and several Americans and quite a few in London and in Scotland will be quite unhappy about this.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989
    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.

    This has been months in the planning.
    Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
    “Waggy coos”, per some on Twitter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Russians are blockading roads M-4 and M-2, where they cross the Oka river South of Moscow, presumably in an attempt to stop the convoy at a pinch point.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    TimS said:

    Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).

    There's something ineffably British about a thunder run involving a short bald man with poor eyesight and a creased t-shirt in a second-hand BMW driving to Barnard Castle. :)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    DougSeal said:

    He’s here! But how long?

    DougSeal said:

    I’m at Royal Ascot. The dress code for seals was a bit vague but I’ve done my best.

    No fur, I hope.
    I’ve been here 4 years! No fur, thankfully
    Sorry, that was vanilla repeating a previous post!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.

    This has been months in the planning.
    I’m inclined to agree.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    edited June 2023
    [deleted. Silly]
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Going to be a long week.

    Unclear how much this is going to affect the frontline yet, Prigozhin has said he is going to let MOD staff continue to work in Rostov, implying supplies will continue unabated. Any disruption at all, should know it in about three to seven days.
    https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1672580205142065153?cxt=HHwWgoC-nbe1mbYuAAAA
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Too hot to garden.

    "The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months"
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Cicero said:

    kle4 said:

    See, I knew this was not a long term plan, it was very reactive

    If the tide is about to go out on the Putin state, do we get to see his list of useful idiots?
    We do, and several Americans and quite a few in London and in Scotland will be quite unhappy about this.
    The Republican National Committee will demand that presidential candidates pledge to support the eventual winner of the Russian civil war.
    https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon/status/1672597709662875648
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well

    The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
    In The_Chieftain's latest missive. he pointed out that on any given day there will be about 10,000 drones in theatre in Ukraine. It's bigger than the UK. Five blokes from the Hereford boathouse will not make any difference.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    viewcode said:

    TimS said:

    Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).

    There's something ineffably British about a thunder run involving a short bald man with poor eyesight and a creased t-shirt in a second-hand BMW driving to Barnard Castle. :)
    Was it really second hand?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Guys:

    Imetatronik thinks the coup is going nowhere.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    ..

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.

    In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.

    In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.

    Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
    Hmm, very probably. But you've left it hanging a bit. Where's that Russian civil war going? If you promise me it doesn't trigger more horrors than those we're saving in Ukraine you might have a deal. Can you?
    Just so.
    The last Russian civil war lasted 6 years, caused c.1.5m deaths and the US and UK backed the losing side.
    Since when is 1917 to 1921 six years???
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894
    Nigelb said:

    Too hot to garden.

    "The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months"
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200

    Well if you can't trust mercenary warlords...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    edited June 2023
    DougSeal said:

    viewcode said:

    TimS said:

    Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).

    There's something ineffably British about a thunder run involving a short bald man with poor eyesight and a creased t-shirt in a second-hand BMW driving to Barnard Castle. :)
    Was it really second hand?
    Good question. I threw it in to make the sentence scan. He's born to wealth and doesn't feel the need to impress, so I figured he'd buy second-hand. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

    [edit. And it should have been "creasy" t-shirt, since the "-ed" trips the flow a bit]
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    It’s really nice of them to put this on during a non Ashes weekend to keep us entertained.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Chechen leader Kadyrov's Akhmat troops have reached the Aksai, 15 minutes from Rostov. Kadyrov had made statements in favor of Putin after Prizgohin's rebellion.
    https://twitter.com/leventkemaI/status/1672595767775707138
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Nigelb said:

    Too hot to garden.

    "The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months"
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200

    Just when today couldn’t get any funnier - if it turns out that the Wagner Group have been hoarding Russian weapons, to use against the Russian Army…
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    boulay said:

    It’s really nice of them to put this on during a non Ashes weekend to keep us entertained.

    Great weekend to do it. No cricket and no F1. Next weekend is going to be so much busier.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894
    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    viewcode said:

    TimS said:

    Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).

    There's something ineffably British about a thunder run involving a short bald man with poor eyesight and a creased t-shirt in a second-hand BMW driving to Barnard Castle. :)
    Was it really second hand?
    Good question. I threw it in to make the sentence scan. He's born to wealth and doesn't feel the need to impress, so I figured he'd buy second-hand. Happy to be corrected if wrong.
    Didn't Cummings have a Land Rover Discovery aka Disco?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well

    The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
    In The_Chieftain's latest missive. he pointed out that on any given day there will be about 10,000 drones in theatre in Ukraine. It's bigger than the UK. Five blokes from the Hereford boathouse will not make any difference.
    No - I don’t mean fighting. I mean this alleged secret liaison between Ukraine and Wagner. I’d be surprised if Five eyes - especially US/UK has no “insight” there

    The entire war has been replete with duplicity and psyops. Cf Nordstream
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,258
    rcs1000 said:

    Guys:

    Imetatronik thinks the coup is going nowhere.

    They seem to being nowhere… fast?

    https://youtu.be/251zlGliwOQ
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    boulay said:

    It’s really nice of them to put this on during a non Ashes weekend to keep us entertained.

    Ahem, an England batter may pass 200 before tea in an Ashes test today.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,628
    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.

    This has been months in the planning.
    Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
    Perhaps taking Bakhmut to give him credibility was coordinated with Ukraine, when all along he was plotting to move against Putin and end the war.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    viewcode said:

    TimS said:

    Trying to find British political parallels, and the closest I can get is Cummings turning on Boris. Similar dynamic (though fewer weapons).

    There's something ineffably British about a thunder run involving a short bald man with poor eyesight and a creased t-shirt in a second-hand BMW driving to Barnard Castle. :)
    Was it really second hand?
    Good question. I threw it in to make the sentence scan. He's born to wealth and doesn't feel the need to impress, so I figured he'd buy second-hand. Happy to be corrected if wrong.
    Didn't Cummings have a Land Rover Discovery aka Disco?
    Well, I said I'd be happy to be corrected, so there's that... :)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Another eyewitness video of a Wagner convoy reportedly breaking through then "truck obstacles" on the way to Moscow - the types of obstacles I posted above that are supposed to protect Moscow highways.
    https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1672600151909707778
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    It’s really nice of them to put this on during a non Ashes weekend to keep us entertained.

    Great weekend to do it. No cricket and no F1. Next weekend is going to be so much busier.
    Well China has announced its holding off the invasion of Taiwan until after the Ashes as they can’t compete against the draw of Bazball.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well

    The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
    When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,139
    edited June 2023
    How far South of Moscow is that crossing of the Oka river of the M2/M4 motorway, that was mentioned for fortifications ?

    It doesn't seem as if Moscow's writ extends very far.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    Nigelb said:

    Another eyewitness video of a Wagner convoy reportedly breaking through then "truck obstacles" on the way to Moscow - the types of obstacles I posted above that are supposed to protect Moscow highways.
    https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1672600151909707778

    GTA6 graphics are very realistic....
  • Darth Putin
    @DarthPutinKGB
    Wagner took 9 months to capture Bakhmut and 3 hours to capture Rostov.

    https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1672514271438053376
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, big shout out to everyone on the this board. We've been hours ahead of the mainstream media.

    To be fair we did have our very own man on the ground giving us all the facts, thanks to Theshard for keeping us informed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Nigelb said:

    Another eyewitness video of a Wagner convoy reportedly breaking through then "truck obstacles" on the way to Moscow - the types of obstacles I posted above that are supposed to protect Moscow highways.
    https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1672600151909707778

    Well, if they think a couple of trucks before a bridge - rather than a couple of dozen trucks on the bridge - are going to stop an enemy convoy…
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Farooq said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well

    The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
    When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
    and Mayfair
    and Kyiv
    and Georgia
    and Luhansk
    [clunk gasp crack]
    and Donetsk
    and Washington
    and Crimea
    and
    Transnistria!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,139
    edited June 2023
    The Chechens seem to advancing towards Rostov.

    No one else seems to be fighting the Wagner soldiers on the ground.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    rcs1000 said:

    Guys:

    Imetatronik thinks the coup is going nowhere.

    They seem to being nowhere… fast?

    https://youtu.be/251zlGliwOQ
    He called it the "lamest coup attempt ever".

    His prescience continues to be unmatched.

    (Also. Mark Thatcher says hello.)
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well

    The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
    When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
    Sasha Litvinenko died a cruel and horrible death.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well

    The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
    In The_Chieftain's latest missive. he pointed out that on any given day there will be about 10,000 drones in theatre in Ukraine. It's bigger than the UK. Five blokes from the Hereford boathouse will not make any difference.
    No - I don’t mean fighting. I mean this alleged secret liaison between Ukraine and Wagner. I’d be surprised if Five eyes - especially US/UK has no “insight” there

    The entire war has been replete with duplicity and psyops. Cf Nordstream
    Fair point. I'm just trying to process the fact that the Russian version of Grant Mitchell is leading an armed incursion towards Moscow, that the Pentagon may actually have helped him plan, supply and pay for it for months, that Putin may have fled the capital, and that it might actually work. I can only handle so much.

    here's a map: https://liveuamap.com/#
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    Chris said:

    If Putin has really left Moscow by plane already, with the convoy maybe half a day away, doesn't that mean he's afraid that the troops in Moscow will go over to the other side even before Wagner gets there?

    It's hardly as though Wagner has an air force to intercept him if he tries to go any later.

    For every police, security, military, or paramilitary entity in Russia that Putin might call upon for help he now has to think "will they defend me or detain me?" He's really in very deep trouble.
    Classic strongman dilemma. Anyone you have to rely upon therefore has power over you, so you cannot fully trust them since if they have that power they could use it to harm you too.
    I was thinking about when we last had a militia anything like the Wagner Brigade. Maybe the black and tans in the Irish war in the early 1920's? Its not something that serious countries generally do or serious armies tolerate. The fact that Russia has been so dependent upon a bunch of thugs and convicts for manpower has demonstrated that their army is overrated more than anything else.

    Prigozhin was almost certainly telling the truth about seriously undermanned regiments with the generals pocketing the wages of phantom soldiers too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited June 2023

    Darth Putin
    @DarthPutinKGB
    Wagner took 9 months to capture Bakhmut and 3 hours to capture Rostov.

    https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1672514271438053376

    Whoever runs that account, is having a lot of fun today.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    The Chechens seem to advancing towards Rostov.

    No one else seems to be fighting the Wagner soldiers on the ground.

    Rostov-on-Don or Rostov Oblast?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785

    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.

    This has been months in the planning.
    Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
    Perhaps taking Bakhmut to give him credibility was coordinated with Ukraine, when all along he was plotting to move against Putin and end the war.
    You've left out the 'cia'.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,628

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.

    In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.

    In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.

    Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
    I don't think scenario 1 exists. Prigozhin has just said the war is senseless and based on lies which is why the groups who want to see the war prosecuted harder aren't behind him. He doesn't represent the war party in Russia at this point.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:


    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    2m
    BREAKING:

    The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow

    1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious

    2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?

    3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??

    It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
    Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.

    Why did they mutiny?

    Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
    It wasn't called Petrograd till 1924

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Wowww

    🇷🇺⚡️HEAVY TRAFFIC OF RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT HIGH-PROFILE OFFICIALS TO ST. PETERSBURG AWAY FROM MOSCOW


    https://twitter.com/battlesintel/status/1672606916927713280?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Sounds like the fighting in Moscow might already have begun. Implying Wagner had men there lying low

    Which makes sense
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,665
    edited June 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Darth Putin
    @DarthPutinKGB
    Wagner took 9 months to capture Bakhmut and 3 hours to capture Rostov.

    https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1672514271438053376

    Whoever runs that account, is having a lot of fun today.
    It looks to have a limited lifespan, so making the most of it...

    I wondered if whoever runs it realised quite how it would end up, given it started back in 2012.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Oh, and Roskomnadzor has cancelled Prigozhin. Apparently "Prigozhin" is now a slur. https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-june-roskomnadzor-has-blocked-media-associated-with-evgeniy
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    ohnotnow said:

    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wagner sources are suggesting this all started when Russian troops fired on Wagner troops in Ukraine a couple of days ago. Could be the usual bollocks to justify actions, or there might be something to it.

    This has been months in the planning.
    Yes, the coup de Blyat looks very well planned, not thrown together at the last minute. To be fair Ukrainian sources were forecasting such a move three months ago.
    Perhaps taking Bakhmut to give him credibility was coordinated with Ukraine, when all along he was plotting to move against Putin and end the war.
    You've left out the 'cia'.
    He's moving against the CIA too? Does his ambition know no bounds?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,139
    edited June 2023
    The Chechens seem to be on the edge of Rostov-on-Don rather than Rostov Oblast, I think, and just rep;lying to rcs's query.

    Maybe Putin's last stand ?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Leon said:

    Wowww

    🇷🇺⚡️HEAVY TRAFFIC OF RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT HIGH-PROFILE OFFICIALS TO ST. PETERSBURG AWAY FROM MOSCOW


    https://twitter.com/battlesintel/status/1672606916927713280?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    The reason they are shifting to St P is because it’s very easy for them to escape to the non NATO country Finland, what’s that you say, Finland joined NATO because we invaded Ukraine? Bugger.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
    The potential carnage from that scenario is massive and we have no clue where it would lead. If a bloody disintegration of Russia were to happen, with various 'big man' psychopaths trading atrocities, I'd be hoping the resulting horrors are limited to Russia, that whatever sort of Russia emerges from it is better than this one, and of course that it leads to the liberation of Ukraine, but there's no way on earth I'm hoping it happens in the first place.
    Imagine you have the choice between two different futures in four weeks time.

    In scenario 1, Prigozhin's rebellion is rapidly defeated, or rapidly victorious, and the Russian army remains fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainian cities continue to face bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery shells. The war continues. The Ukrainian counterattack makes progress, but inevitably there are many casualties, both Ukrainian and Russian.

    In scenario 2, Prigozhin's rebellion makes some progress, but Putin fights on. There is fighting in and around Moscow and millions of civilians flee. Russian army units are redeployed from Ukraine and declare for either side, leading to heavy fighting across south-western Russia. Ukraine liberates its territory, and the war with Russia comes to an end. The bombardment of Ukrainian cities is brought to an end, and Ukrainian civilians are freed from Russian occupation. Ukraine can begin the massive task of reconstruction, mine-clearing and grieving. Many Ukrainian soldiers are able to return to their families. Boris Johnson visits Ukraine and takes selfies with Zelenskyy in Mariupol.

    Surely scenario 2 is preferable to scenario 1?
    I don't think scenario 1 exists. Prigozhin has just said the war is senseless and based on lies which is why the groups who want to see the war prosecuted harder aren't behind him. He doesn't represent the war party in Russia at this point.
    Yes, Putin has been in denial and thinking he led a superpower that could easily invade its neighbours.

    Prigozhin knows better. He doesn't want to return to a frontline against Western weapons.

    Fighting in Africa is more profitable and fun than dying in Ukraine. Being the next President of Russia, safe in Moscow, is probably even more profitable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    Sounds like the fighting in Moscow might already have begun. Implying Wagner had men there lying low

    Which makes sense

    If I remember correctly, that was the flawed tactic from the start of the invasion of Ukraine, where little green men had been hiding in Kiev for weeks in advance in an attempt to capture the likes of Zelenskyy
    and disrupt day to day running of the city.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    geoffw said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:


    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    2m
    BREAKING:

    The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow

    1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious

    2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?

    3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??

    It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
    Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.

    Why did they mutiny?

    Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
    It wasn't called Petrograd till 1924

    Yes, but how did it self identify?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited June 2023
    Mmm.
    Chechens v Wagner around Rostov.
    Wagner v Putinist Loyalist remnants south of Moscow.
    Angry Patriots threatening to mobilise God knows where.
    And the bulk of the Army in Ukraine.
    How did Russia collapse?
    Very slowly then in under a day.
    Kind of them to do it on a weekend when I'm able to be Online
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Another eyewitness video of a Wagner convoy reportedly breaking through then "truck obstacles" on the way to Moscow - the types of obstacles I posted above that are supposed to protect Moscow highways.
    https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1672600151909707778

    GTA6 graphics are very realistic....
    https://www.reddit.com/r/GTAorRussia/top/
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:


    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    2m
    BREAKING:

    The Wagner Group has announced that most of the Russian Army units in the Lipetsk region have switched sides and joined the Wagner Group military column heading toward Moscow

    1. It is Visegrad, and they can be quite excitable if not outright mendacious

    2. Wagner Group would say this, wouldn't they?

    3. Bloody hell Ken, what if it's true??

    It does make some sense. If you're a young Russian male about to be thrown into the meat-paste-machine that is Ukraine, why not throw in your lot with Wagner, and hopefully avoid a real war altogether. It's a massive risk, but then so is fighting enraged Ukrainians with NATO weapons
    Again, the Petrograd garrison, 1917.

    Why did they mutiny?

    Because they had been told they were about to be sent to the Front.
    It wasn't called Petrograd till 1924

    Yes, but how did it self identify?
    As a cat.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Nigelb said:

    Chechen leader Kadyrov's Akhmat troops have reached the Aksai, 15 minutes from Rostov. Kadyrov had made statements in favor of Putin after Prizgohin's rebellion.
    https://twitter.com/leventkemaI/status/1672595767775707138

    They were meant to be protecting Belgorod from pro-Ukrainian incursions?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    boulay said:

    Farooq said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    How we’ve sunk as a nation. 60 years ago, there’s be a group of men in Whitehall, laughing in British, as they orchestrated the coup.

    With our deep involvement in the Ukrainian war, I'd be surprised if there isn't UK intel and special ops involvement on this front, as well

    The Kremlin's paranoia about "British spies" might well be justified
    When Putin is hooded and stood on the gallows, just before they open the trapdoor I hope someone leans over and whipsers in his ear "Greetings from Salisbury."
    and Mayfair
    and Kyiv
    and Georgia
    and Luhansk
    [clunk gasp crack]
    and Donetsk
    and Washington
    and Crimea
    and
    Sounds like a bad version of Rotterdam by the Beautiful South.
    You mean there's a good version?!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    rcs1000 said:

    Guys:

    Imetatronik thinks the coup is going nowhere.

    Yes, but what does Optimus Prime say?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    .

    Leon said:

    Sounds like the fighting in Moscow might already have begun. Implying Wagner had men there lying low

    Which makes sense

    If I remember correctly, that was the flawed tactic from the start of the invasion of Ukraine, where little green men had been hiding in Kiev for weeks in advance in an attempt to capture the likes of Zelenskyy
    and disrupt day to day running of the city.
    Sometimes when people say “Kiev”, they really mean “Chernobyl”.
This discussion has been closed.