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The July 20th by-elections – latest betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheshardTheshard Posts: 50
    Leon said:

    We could get a civil war with both sides in possession of nukes. Indeed that is quite likely

    A novel situation and possibly not ideal

    Even the cia is not competent these days with its attempted coups. Likely employs too many gays and teannies.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    kle4 said:

    Apparently there is a group in Russia called the Angry Patriots Club, hardline nationalist types who also think the war in Ukraine has not been harsh enough.

    I guess Angry Patriots Club sounds cooler in Russian than it does in English.

    I thought Angry Patriots Club was just another name for CCHQ.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    edited June 2023
    Theshard said:

    Leon said:

    We could get a civil war with both sides in possession of nukes. Indeed that is quite likely

    A novel situation and possibly not ideal

    Even the cia is not competent these days with its attempted coups. Likely employs too many gays and teannies.
    Well, you keep telling us it employs Putin.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Ah. Ok. Hmm. Yes


    BREAKING: Unverified reports say #Wagner has captured a military base which contains nuclear arsenal.

    #Russia #RussiaCivilWar #RussiaCoup #RussiaIsCollapsing

    https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1672568788703649796?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Less funny.

    What will be very interesting is how Wagner forces hold up should full scale fighting actually break out. We know they can fight, but are their stomachs in this?
    We can assume so. If they win, they get a huge payout. If they lose, they get shot.
    Yes. Putin is not going to forgive and forget

    Wagner have to win or they die. That’s it
    Proper Alien vs Predator battle.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,422
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Ah. Ok. Hmm. Yes


    BREAKING: Unverified reports say #Wagner has captured a military base which contains nuclear arsenal.

    #Russia #RussiaCivilWar #RussiaCoup #RussiaIsCollapsing

    https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1672568788703649796?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Less funny.

    What will be very interesting is how Wagner forces hold up should full scale fighting actually break out. We know they can fight, but are their stomachs in this?
    We can assume so. If they win, they get a huge payout. If they lose, they get shot.
    Very high stakes poker.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991

    Meanwhile, Yousless has been speaking at SNP conference, and stopped talking to go and personally discuss with a heckler. And then said that an independent Scotland could see "transformational change"

    Yes. motorhomes for all, not just for the CEO.

    And the English will pay for it?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,351
    Theshard said:

    Leon said:

    We could get a civil war with both sides in possession of nukes. Indeed that is quite likely

    A novel situation and possibly not ideal

    Even the cia is not competent these days with its attempted coups. Likely employs too many gays and teannies.
    Gays can be quite ferocious in war.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Theshard said:

    Theshard said:

    This, unforrunately, does look like a civil war *might potentially* develop.

    Unless Progozhin gets his forces to Moscow quickly, or activates any forces if they're already inside Moscow quickly.

    You and I have very different definitions of the word "unfortunately".

    Personally I think Russians killing Ukrainians is more unfortunate than Russians killing Russians.
    You have no compassion or regard for human life. You disgust me and you disgust good men like kinabalu.
    I have a lot of regard for Ukrainian lives, and the way they're fighting off your invaders. 👍
    Shame tens of thousands have died then. Have you seen the mass graves.
    The Russians could, just bear with me here, stop killing them? Crazy I know, but radical ideas should be considered.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Meanwhile, Yousless has been speaking at SNP conference, and stopped talking to go and personally discuss with a heckler. And then said that an independent Scotland could see "transformational change"

    Yes. motorhomes for all, not just for the CEO.

    Not Cis-formational change?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Leon said:

    Ah. Ok. Hmm. Yes


    BREAKING: Unverified reports say #Wagner has captured a military base which contains nuclear arsenal.

    #Russia #RussiaCivilWar #RussiaCoup #RussiaIsCollapsing

    https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1672568788703649796?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Oh good. That's the plot of "Crimson Tide", then.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Theshard said:

    Theshard said:

    This, unforrunately, does look like a civil war *might potentially* develop.

    Unless Progozhin gets his forces to Moscow quickly, or activates any forces if they're already inside Moscow quickly.

    You and I have very different definitions of the word "unfortunately".

    Personally I think Russians killing Ukrainians is more unfortunate than Russians killing Russians.
    You have no compassion or regard for human life. You disgust me and you disgust good men like kinabalu.
    I have a lot of regard for Ukrainian lives, and the way they're fighting off your invaders. 👍
    Shame tens of thousands have died then. Have you seen the mass graves.
    PS Please try to use a question mark at the end of questions.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,422
    Theshard said:

    Theshard said:

    This, unforrunately, does look like a civil war *might potentially* develop.

    Unless Progozhin gets his forces to Moscow quickly, or activates any forces if they're already inside Moscow quickly.

    You and I have very different definitions of the word "unfortunately".

    Personally I think Russians killing Ukrainians is more unfortunate than Russians killing Russians.
    You have no compassion or regard for human life. You disgust me and you disgust good men like kinabalu.
    I have a lot of regard for Ukrainian lives, and the way they're fighting off your invaders. 👍
    Shame tens of thousands have died then. Have you seen the mass graves.
    You mean the ones you've created with your mass executions and murders?
  • TheshardTheshard Posts: 50
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Ah. Ok. Hmm. Yes


    BREAKING: Unverified reports say #Wagner has captured a military base which contains nuclear arsenal.

    #Russia #RussiaCivilWar #RussiaCoup #RussiaIsCollapsing

    https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1672568788703649796?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Less funny.

    What will be very interesting is how Wagner forces hold up should full scale fighting actually break out. We know they can fight, but are their stomachs in this?
    We can assume so. If they win, they get a huge payout. If they lose, they get shot.
    Yes. Putin is not going to forgive and forget

    Wagner have to win or they die. That’s it
    With any luck, they win *and* die.

    The world would not be a noticeably worse place for the loss of Putin, Prigozhin and all their scummy henchmen.
    If you come for the king you better not fail.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    It is time to give up this pointless war and give Ukraine back to Russia.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    Its a good job our future PM isn't proposing an energy plan which would increase our reliance on Russian oil and gas.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kle4 said:

    Apparently there is a group in Russia called the Angry Patriots Club, hardline nationalist types who also think the war in Ukraine has not been harsh enough.

    I guess Angry Patriots Club sounds cooler in Russian than it does in English.

    I thought Angry Patriots Club was just another name for CCHQ.
    True Conservatives, like JRM, are very unpatriotic in fact, they frequently attack andy institutions and cultural elements they dislike, even if that means adopting radical, revolutionary ideas such as Parliament not being able to remove a PM.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    theakes said:

    Somerton and Frome appears nailed on for the Lib Dems and Conservative activity does not appear to be great, whilst there is no imminent by election in Bedfordshire. Therefore northern Lib Dems could well descend on North Yorkshire, I have a funny feeling that Selby and Ainsty may be a 3 way result. If Nadine had gone it would have been a straight Con/Labour contest but now........

    The coverage of Selby & Ainsty has been very one-dimensional.

    The Greens have a presence in the parts of the former Harrogate Council which are in the constituency and while Labour has strength in Selby, most of the constituency splits in local Government terms between Independents and Conservatives.

    The question is how these Independents will break at parliamentary level (I've also heard rumours of a very positive start for the LDs in the constituency).

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Meanwhile, Yousless has been speaking at SNP conference, and stopped talking to go and personally discuss with a heckler. And then said that an independent Scotland could see "transformational change"

    Yes. motorhomes for all, not just for the CEO.

    Not now, Scotland. Read the room
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    Theshard said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Ah. Ok. Hmm. Yes


    BREAKING: Unverified reports say #Wagner has captured a military base which contains nuclear arsenal.

    #Russia #RussiaCivilWar #RussiaCoup #RussiaIsCollapsing

    https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1672568788703649796?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Less funny.

    What will be very interesting is how Wagner forces hold up should full scale fighting actually break out. We know they can fight, but are their stomachs in this?
    We can assume so. If they win, they get a huge payout. If they lose, they get shot.
    Yes. Putin is not going to forgive and forget

    Wagner have to win or they die. That’s it
    With any luck, they win *and* die.

    The world would not be a noticeably worse place for the loss of Putin, Prigozhin and all their scummy henchmen.
    If you come for the king you better not fail.
    Well, I wasn't planning too. I was too busy watching Prigozhin take down a President.

    But if TSE is willing to take a break from his holiday I daresay he and I might consider doing something about Charles.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Google maps is telling me about 7.5 hours from Voronezh to Moscow.
    Fastest route avoids road closure in E115.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Theshard said:

    dixiedean said:

    Theshard said:

    Theshard said:

    Even cnn says Ukraines counteroffensive is going poorly. This is a big distraction from the total slaughter of ukrainian men on the front line.

    Ukraine’s counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials and a senior US military official tell CNN. The counteroffensive is “not meeting expectations on any front,” one of them said

    4:05 PM · Jun 22, 2023

    ·

    138.6K

    Views

    https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1671897144301854721?s=20

    I'd worry more about getting paid than trolling on here.
    If you signed an agrement with Putin, I suspect you may find the cheques bounce very shortly......
    The west is going bankrupt and you are talking about my cheques bouncing. When china dumps us treasurys uk mortgage rates will be back to 15%. Mass bankruptcy for the uk home owners.
    Ah China.
    Whatever you say. They aren't daft. They've played you like a balalaika through all of this.
    The global south is behind russia or havent you noticed. The West has lost a lot of respect in the past year.
    I'm guessing that you are from the global south and are doing this to earn some cash in your spare time, in which case, can you drop the act? It should be obvious to you that it's all falling apart for Russia.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Leon said:

    This, unforrunately, does look like a civil war *might potentially* develop.

    Unless Progozhin gets his forces to Moscow quickly, or activates any forces if they're already inside Moscow quickly.

    You and I have very different definitions of the word "unfortunately".

    Personally I think Russians killing Ukrainians is more unfortunate than Russians killing Russians.
    I think what @WhisperingOracle means is that the best outcome is a short sharp coup, Putin falls, and the new regime calls a truce in/withdraws from Ukraine as it concentrates on firming power in Russia. As the bolsheviks did in WW1

    Much less appealing is a full on, full scale Russian civil war with both sides armed with nukes. That is going to kill many innocent people and could easily spill over into international catastrophe
    Civil war fighters aren’t going to use nukes. Just about the most ineffective type of weapon for insurgency or counter-insurgency.

    The nuclear paranoia about Russia is disproportionate. We don’t panic every time nuclear armed Pakistan descends into chaos.
  • TheshardTheshard Posts: 50
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    Very true Kinabalu a terrible situation for the world might develop.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Nigelb said:

    Google maps is telling me about 7.5 hours from Voronezh to Moscow.
    Fastest route avoids road closure in E115.

    If Putin commands the air (looks like he does) then the convoys will be obliterated before they get anywhere near Moscow. Wagner surely have a plan for this. Insurrection at air bases? Aircraft of their own?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Theshard said:

    Theshard said:

    This, unforrunately, does look like a civil war *might potentially* develop.

    Unless Progozhin gets his forces to Moscow quickly, or activates any forces if they're already inside Moscow quickly.

    You and I have very different definitions of the word "unfortunately".

    Personally I think Russians killing Ukrainians is more unfortunate than Russians killing Russians.
    You have no compassion or regard for human life. You disgust me and you disgust good men like kinabalu.
    I have a lot of regard for Ukrainian lives, and the way they're fighting off your invaders. 👍
    Shame tens of thousands have died then. Have you seen the mass graves.
    You mean the ones you've created with your mass executions and murders?
    Yes, this is another of the mental blindspots these posters have. Clearly there is an approved line about being 'compassionate' and what a shame it is that lots of people are dying and can we not just have peace, but when challenged on it they drop the act and basically start bragging about how many people are being successively killed by the Russians.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    Theshard said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    Very true Kinabalu a terrible situation for the world might develop.
    So basically, it's necessary for Putin to surrender quickly?

    I'm not actually sure that would be better given who would replace him. However, to each their own. And it is entirely his own fault.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Ah. Ok. Hmm. Yes


    BREAKING: Unverified reports say #Wagner has captured a military base which contains nuclear arsenal.

    #Russia #RussiaCivilWar #RussiaCoup #RussiaIsCollapsing

    https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1672568788703649796?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Less funny.

    What will be very interesting is how Wagner forces hold up should full scale fighting actually break out. We know they can fight, but are their stomachs in this?
    We can assume so. If they win, they get a huge payout. If they lose, they get shot.
    A three day campaign against Putin almost certainly offeres better odds of survival than slogging away in Ukraine.
    And a vastly bigger pay day.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Yousaf heckled in his own conference and walks off stage

    It's an insignificant revolt which will fizzle out soon.
    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23611810.humza-yousaf-leaves-convention-address-speak-directly-heckler/?ref=ebbn&nid=1457

    Rather different to BigG's slant.
    Humza obviously learning from Rishi’s ability to deal with spontaneous interactions with the public.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    Some reports that Medvedev has legged it.

    That would take the biscuit. The fieriest toughest rhetoric, but the first to run. I hope the Russian people get to hang him alongside Putin and Lavrov.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Leon said:

    This, unforrunately, does look like a civil war *might potentially* develop.

    Unless Progozhin gets his forces to Moscow quickly, or activates any forces if they're already inside Moscow quickly.

    You and I have very different definitions of the word "unfortunately".

    Personally I think Russians killing Ukrainians is more unfortunate than Russians killing Russians.
    I think what @WhisperingOracle means is that the best outcome is a short sharp coup, Putin falls, and the new regime calls a truce in/withdraws from Ukraine as it concentrates on firming power in Russia. As the bolsheviks did in WW1

    Much less appealing is a full on, full scale Russian civil war with both sides armed with nukes. That is going to kill many innocent people and could easily spill over into international catastrophe
    Destabilising the Russian Federation has been touted as a beneficial side-effect of Western support for Ukraine. Relax, Sunak and Cleverly will have anticipated this and thought it all through very carefully.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    The BBC backstory on the life story of prigozhin, man it’s wild. In jail for 9 years then went from selling hotdogs to running a massive catering/restaurant business before getting into private military operations.

    That some serious "social mobility"....
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    Theshard said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Ah. Ok. Hmm. Yes


    BREAKING: Unverified reports say #Wagner has captured a military base which contains nuclear arsenal.

    #Russia #RussiaCivilWar #RussiaCoup #RussiaIsCollapsing

    https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1672568788703649796?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Less funny.

    What will be very interesting is how Wagner forces hold up should full scale fighting actually break out. We know they can fight, but are their stomachs in this?
    We can assume so. If they win, they get a huge payout. If they lose, they get shot.
    Yes. Putin is not going to forgive and forget

    Wagner have to win or they die. That’s it
    With any luck, they win *and* die.

    The world would not be a noticeably worse place for the loss of Putin, Prigozhin and all their scummy henchmen.
    If you come for the king you better not fail.
    Oh, for heaven's sake.

    "You come at the king, you better not miss."

    Or you could have used: "In the Game of Thrones, you win or you die."

    Come on! Sort yourself out!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Theshard said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    Very true Kinabalu a terrible situation for the world might develop.
    Kinabalu is concerned about the implications of a full blown civil war. You want Russia to be able to kill Ukrainians without them fighting back. Not the same thing.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    Meanwhile, Yousless has been speaking at SNP conference, and stopped talking to go and personally discuss with a heckler. And then said that an independent Scotland could see "transformational change"

    Yes. motorhomes for all, not just for the CEO.

    They’ll need to improve the A9, A96 and A82 first, or there will be gridlock.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Yousaf heckled in his own conference and walks off stage

    It's an insignificant revolt which will fizzle out soon.
    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23611810.humza-yousaf-leaves-convention-address-speak-directly-heckler/?ref=ebbn&nid=1457

    Rather different to BigG's slant.
    Humza obviously learning from Rishi’s ability to deal with spontaneous interactions with the public.
    Rishi has interactions with the public?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874

    So, coup under way in Russia.

    Is the Wagner guy any saner than Putin? Or worse? And at which point does the coup escalate into a nuclear-armed civil war?

    Be more Worf. Perhaps today is a good day to die!

    My understanding is Prigozhin is worse than Putin.
    But he might (assuming he wins) decide to call it a day. Throw Putin under the bus, "It's all his fault." and then take over Russia.

    Worlds biggest country is still quite the prize.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This, unforrunately, does look like a civil war *might potentially* develop.

    Unless Progozhin gets his forces to Moscow quickly, or activates any forces if they're already inside Moscow quickly.

    You and I have very different definitions of the word "unfortunately".

    Personally I think Russians killing Ukrainians is more unfortunate than Russians killing Russians.
    I think what @WhisperingOracle means is that the best outcome is a short sharp coup, Putin falls, and the new regime calls a truce in/withdraws from Ukraine as it concentrates on firming power in Russia. As the bolsheviks did in WW1

    Much less appealing is a full on, full scale Russian civil war with both sides armed with nukes. That is going to kill many innocent people and could easily spill over into international catastrophe
    Civil war fighters aren’t going to use nukes. Just about the most ineffective type of weapon for insurgency or counter-insurgency.

    The nuclear paranoia about Russia is disproportionate. We don’t panic every time nuclear armed Pakistan descends into chaos.
    Russia is sui generis and has been making threats about nukes constantly. Pakistan does not do that
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    A civil war would be a travesty, these people have nuclear weapons and we do not know what the outcome is. Not to mention the loss of life. The rich who really own Russia won't be impacted as they've all left, many of them are/were sitting in the EU and the USA.

    Anyone wishing for that I am afraid is a muppet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Damnit why have I been banned from watching RT? It would be great to turn it on and watch what is *really* happening, with Alex Salmond and George Galloway giving us the truth.

    It’s still there, even if no-one is watching…
    https://www.rt.com/on-air/
  • TheshardTheshard Posts: 50
    The cia lead coup is aready failing.

    Wagner KAMAZ trucks, 6 vans and a BTR have peacefully left the vicinity of the Rostov Southern Military District HQ. They are slowly leaving There is no shooting or explosions. Shame on RT journalist Roman Kosarev for spreading disinformation. We have a direct LIVE stream on the ground for

    @AussieCossack

    Channel
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    So, coup under way in Russia.

    Is the Wagner guy any saner than Putin? Or worse? And at which point does the coup escalate into a nuclear-armed civil war?

    Be more Worf. Perhaps today is a good day to die!

    My understanding is Prigozhin is worse than Putin.
    But he might (assuming he wins) decide to call it a day. Throw Putin under the bus, "It's all his fault." and then take over Russia.

    Worlds biggest country is still quite the prize.
    Wagner is not taking over anything - no political backing, no power players obviously in his corner.

    But a rabid dog can still bite hard before it is put down.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Another Russian government VIP jet out of Moscow, following the other two towards St Pete.
    https://www.flightradar24.com/RSD697/30da7e35

    Twitter sources believe this is Putin on the run.

    Updated: this is coming from Ukrainian goverment sources.
    That third jet switched off its transponder. The first two are landing at St P now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    The BBC backstory on the life story of prigozhin, man it’s wild. In jail for 9 years then went from selling hotdogs to running a massive catering/restaurant business before getting into private military operations.

    That some serious "social mobility"....

    Not to mention a "wide range of transferrable skills, and extensive experience of working both individually, and in teams in a variety of different settings."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    kle4 said:

    Apparently there is a group in Russia called the Angry Patriots Club, hardline nationalist types who also think the war in Ukraine has not been harsh enough.

    I guess Angry Patriots Club sounds cooler in Russian than it does in English.

    I thought Angry Patriots Club was just another name for CCHQ.
    ConHome.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Apparently there is a group in Russia called the Angry Patriots Club, hardline nationalist types who also think the war in Ukraine has not been harsh enough.

    I guess Angry Patriots Club sounds cooler in Russian than it does in English.

    I thought Angry Patriots Club was just another name for CCHQ.
    True Conservatives, like JRM, are very unpatriotic in fact, they frequently attack andy institutions and cultural elements they dislike, even if that means adopting radical, revolutionary ideas such as Parliament not being able to remove a PM.
    JRM isn't a true conservative. He is a Papist reactionary.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    A full-blown civil war would be the second-best option possible, behind a rapid victory for one side or the other who immediately decides to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine as a result.

    Given that Putin launched this war, and Prigozhin willingly smashed Bakhmut to pieces over several months, I don't have much hope for the ideal scenario. A full-blown civil war is a more likely path to Russian troops leaving Ukraine, as they are pulled back to fight on one side or the other. And then Ukraine will know peace, and can start the long process of reconstruction and dealing with the grief of its losses.

    So, yeah, I'm pretty down with hoping for a Russian civil war actually. If Putin does do a runner and Prigozhin takes over without a fight, and simply continues the war in Ukraine for more months of violence and destruction, I don't see that as a preferable outcome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Theshard said:

    The cia lead coup is aready failing.

    Wagner KAMAZ trucks, 6 vans and a BTR have peacefully left the vicinity of the Rostov Southern Military District HQ. They are slowly leaving There is no shooting or explosions. Shame on RT journalist Roman Kosarev for spreading disinformation. We have a direct LIVE stream on the ground for

    @AussieCossack

    Channel

    You still need to work on your messaging - you are now calling it a coup, yet the perpetrators 'peacefully leaving' is not something that would be celebrated if it was an attempted coup. If it is a coup, which you now say it is, then defeating the Wagner forces would be the goal, not waving them off.

    Have another go.
  • TheshardTheshard Posts: 50
    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    This, unforrunately, does look like a civil war *might potentially* develop.

    Unless Progozhin gets his forces to Moscow quickly, or activates any forces if they're already inside Moscow quickly.

    You and I have very different definitions of the word "unfortunately".

    Personally I think Russians killing Ukrainians is more unfortunate than Russians killing Russians.
    I think what @WhisperingOracle means is that the best outcome is a short sharp coup, Putin falls, and the new regime calls a truce in/withdraws from Ukraine as it concentrates on firming power in Russia. As the bolsheviks did in WW1

    Much less appealing is a full on, full scale Russian civil war with both sides armed with nukes. That is going to kill many innocent people and could easily spill over into international catastrophe
    Destabilising the Russian Federation has been touted as a beneficial side-effect of Western support for Ukraine. Relax, Sunak and Cleverly will have anticipated this and thought it all through very carefully.
    OK, now I’m scared.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Ah. Ok. Hmm. Yes


    BREAKING: Unverified reports say #Wagner has captured a military base which contains nuclear arsenal.

    #Russia #RussiaCivilWar #RussiaCoup #RussiaIsCollapsing

    https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1672568788703649796?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Less funny.

    What will be very interesting is how Wagner forces hold up should full scale fighting actually break out. We know they can fight, but are their stomachs in this?
    We can assume so. If they win, they get a huge payout. If they lose, they get shot.
    Very high stakes poker.
    They should just put one bullet in the gun, spin the barrel, then point it at their own head and fire.

    If only there were a word for that game…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    edited June 2023
    kle4 said:

    So, coup under way in Russia.

    Is the Wagner guy any saner than Putin? Or worse? And at which point does the coup escalate into a nuclear-armed civil war?

    Be more Worf. Perhaps today is a good day to die!

    My understanding is Prigozhin is worse than Putin.
    But he might (assuming he wins) decide to call it a day. Throw Putin under the bus, "It's all his fault." and then take over Russia.

    Worlds biggest country is still quite the prize.
    Wagner is not taking over anything - no political backing, no power players obviously in his corner.

    But a rabid dog can still bite hard before it is put down.
    I'm trying to think of a good pun on the Wagner group.

    If they were on bicycles with bells it would be easier, because then Wagner would be leading the ring, cycle coup.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited June 2023
    Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    It doesn't seem Russia's version of ChatGPT is very good.
  • TheshardTheshard Posts: 50
    I saw a photo of rcs the other day and thought theres the face of a man whos wife married him for money.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    A devastating blow from Our Man in Mauritania with the shoogly broadband
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    So your fantasies extend beyond politics?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    WillG said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Apparently there is a group in Russia called the Angry Patriots Club, hardline nationalist types who also think the war in Ukraine has not been harsh enough.

    I guess Angry Patriots Club sounds cooler in Russian than it does in English.

    I thought Angry Patriots Club was just another name for CCHQ.
    True Conservatives, like JRM, are very unpatriotic in fact, they frequently attack andy institutions and cultural elements they dislike, even if that means adopting radical, revolutionary ideas such as Parliament not being able to remove a PM.
    JRM isn't a true conservative. He is a Papist reactionary.
    True. The Conservative party was only formed in 1834. JRM’s ideas are much older than that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    This, unforrunately, does look like a civil war *might potentially* develop.

    Unless Progozhin gets his forces to Moscow quickly, or activates any forces if they're already inside Moscow quickly.

    You and I have very different definitions of the word "unfortunately".

    Personally I think Russians killing Ukrainians is more unfortunate than Russians killing Russians.
    I think what @WhisperingOracle means is that the best outcome is a short sharp coup, Putin falls, and the new regime calls a truce in/withdraws from Ukraine as it concentrates on firming power in Russia. As the bolsheviks did in WW1

    Much less appealing is a full on, full scale Russian civil war with both sides armed with nukes. That is going to kill many innocent people and could easily spill over into international catastrophe
    Civil war fighters aren’t going to use nukes. Just about the most ineffective type of weapon for insurgency or counter-insurgency.

    The nuclear paranoia about Russia is disproportionate. We don’t panic every time nuclear armed Pakistan descends into chaos.
    I get a twinge of concern every time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    Theshard said:

    I saw a photo of rcs the other day and thought theres the face of a man whos wife married him for money.

    Blimey. Ban hammer not so much incoming as splatting after that.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Theshard said:

    Theshard said:

    This, unforrunately, does look like a civil war *might potentially* develop.

    Unless Progozhin gets his forces to Moscow quickly, or activates any forces if they're already inside Moscow quickly.

    You and I have very different definitions of the word "unfortunately".

    Personally I think Russians killing Ukrainians is more unfortunate than Russians killing Russians.
    You have no compassion or regard for human life. You disgust me and you disgust good men like kinabalu.
    I have a lot of regard for Ukrainian lives, and the way they're fighting off your invaders. 👍
    Shame tens of thousands have died then. Have you seen the mass graves.
    Yes, thousands have dies because of the criminal Russian culture's foreign aggression. I said from the start Russian failure was inevitable. Now the end game is happening. The West will be triumphant and your genocidal idol will lose. Ha ha ha.
  • Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    Vlad's payment didn't hit your PayPal account? Sad times. Back to wanking in your mum's back bedroom.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    It doesn't seem Russia's version of ChatGPT is very good.
    ShatGPT.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Theshard said:

    superiority and the ability to discover and destroy enemy troop concentrations and supply depots får behind the frontline. Good Russian reconnaissance makes strategic, and often even tactical, surprise nearly impossible. Russia also have a clear advantage in artillery. Russian air superiority and good reconnaissance makes Ukrainian attacks very hard. Especially since there are enormous amounts of mines everywhere. The UkrAF also seems to lack good Air Defence at the frontline. Russian losses of aircrafts has been very low. When Ukrainian ground units attack they must attack through mine fields since they can't demine them in advance due to Russian fire control. Ukrainian forces can't concentrate in huge numbers since they will be discovered in advance if they do that. The Ukrainians have to rush through the minefields with limited resources and hope that their follow up reinforcements don't get to mauled by Russian air power and artillery. If the Ukrainian forces are strong enough RuAF retreat and their old positions become an artillery trap. After a while the newly captured Ukrainian position is transformed to a moon landscape and Russian forces counterattack. Mostly they succeeds in recapturing lost territory and the Ukrainians withdraw. Sometimes Ukrainian units hold on to newly captured positions and move the frontline one or two kilometers, but to a high price. During these 19 days Ukraine has fought an uphill battle, which seemed doomed from the start. The result is probably clearly higher casualties among the Ukrainians, than by the Russian side. This means that UkrAF becomes weaker in comparison to the RuAF. That's one goal not achieved. If the other goals where successful you could accept normal losses, but that's not the case. Ukrainian territorial gains, both on the Southern and Eastern fronts has been minimal and nothing indicates that will change. That in combination with high losses, especially losses on video, destroys all possibility of a propaganda victory. Now Ukraine must try to hide the failed counteroffensive by denying it's existence and downplaying the losses. Ukraine and its supporters still dominate western media so they might have some success there. But doubts will grow even in the west, that the war is winnable and worth spending huge resources on.

    RusGPT not brilliant is it.
    About as good as some incoherent drivel this morning, clearly produced by AI, claiming 20% of public sector workers did nothing and could be sacked without there being any difference to public services.
    What do we do today that we didn't do in 2015 that requires 1m more people to be employed by the state? I'm not suggesting we go to 1980s level of staffing, just back to 2015.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    WillG said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Apparently there is a group in Russia called the Angry Patriots Club, hardline nationalist types who also think the war in Ukraine has not been harsh enough.

    I guess Angry Patriots Club sounds cooler in Russian than it does in English.

    I thought Angry Patriots Club was just another name for CCHQ.
    True Conservatives, like JRM, are very unpatriotic in fact, they frequently attack andy institutions and cultural elements they dislike, even if that means adopting radical, revolutionary ideas such as Parliament not being able to remove a PM.
    JRM isn't a true conservative. He is a Papist reactionary.
    Er ... wasn't that the primary definition of a Tory, as much discussed on here lately?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Theshard said:

    I saw a photo of rcs the other day and thought theres the face of a man whos wife married him for money.

    Well, I do hope you enjoyed your time at PB under this name. Good luck with the next incarnation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Google maps is telling me about 7.5 hours from Voronezh to Moscow.
    Fastest route avoids road closure in E115.

    If Putin commands the air (looks like he does) then the convoys will be obliterated before they get anywhere near Moscow. Wagner surely have a plan for this. Insurrection at air bases? Aircraft of their own?
    It beggars belief the Russian state would be incapable of wiping out any potential rebel force long before it got anywhere near Moscow. It sounds so crazy no doubt the theories that Putin is playing 4D Chess will be going into overdrive already.

    But this level of disruption does not seem to help him any either, so something very weird and dumb is clearly happening.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Theshard said:

    superiority and the ability to discover and destroy enemy troop concentrations and supply depots får behind the frontline. Good Russian reconnaissance makes strategic, and often even tactical, surprise nearly impossible. Russia also have a clear advantage in artillery. Russian air superiority and good reconnaissance makes Ukrainian attacks very hard. Especially since there are enormous amounts of mines everywhere. The UkrAF also seems to lack good Air Defence at the frontline. Russian losses of aircrafts has been very low. When Ukrainian ground units attack they must attack through mine fields since they can't demine them in advance due to Russian fire control. Ukrainian forces can't concentrate in huge numbers since they will be discovered in advance if they do that. The Ukrainians have to rush through the minefields with limited resources and hope that their follow up reinforcements don't get to mauled by Russian air power and artillery. If the Ukrainian forces are strong enough RuAF retreat and their old positions become an artillery trap. After a while the newly captured Ukrainian position is transformed to a moon landscape and Russian forces counterattack. Mostly they succeeds in recapturing lost territory and the Ukrainians withdraw. Sometimes Ukrainian units hold on to newly captured positions and move the frontline one or two kilometers, but to a high price. During these 19 days Ukraine has fought an uphill battle, which seemed doomed from the start. The result is probably clearly higher casualties among the Ukrainians, than by the Russian side. This means that UkrAF becomes weaker in comparison to the RuAF. That's one goal not achieved. If the other goals where successful you could accept normal losses, but that's not the case. Ukrainian territorial gains, both on the Southern and Eastern fronts has been minimal and nothing indicates that will change. That in combination with high losses, especially losses on video, destroys all possibility of a propaganda victory. Now Ukraine must try to hide the failed counteroffensive by denying it's existence and downplaying the losses. Ukraine and its supporters still dominate western media so they might have some success there. But doubts will grow even in the west, that the war is winnable and worth spending huge resources on.

    RusGPT not brilliant is it.
    About as good as some incoherent drivel this morning, clearly produced by AI, claiming 20% of public sector workers did nothing and could be sacked without there being any difference to public services.
    What do we do today that we didn't do in 2015 that requires 1m more people to be employed by the state? I'm not suggesting we go to 1980s level of staffing, just back to 2015.
    Finding that in fact that 1m people were needed after all, and that Messrs Cameron and Osborne had screwed up with their Austerity?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    So, coup under way in Russia.

    Is the Wagner guy any saner than Putin? Or worse? And at which point does the coup escalate into a nuclear-armed civil war?

    Be more Worf. Perhaps today is a good day to die!

    My understanding is Prigozhin is worse than Putin.
    But he might (assuming he wins) decide to call it a day. Throw Putin under the bus, "It's all his fault." and then take over Russia.

    Worlds biggest country is still quite the prize.
    Wagner is not taking over anything - no political backing, no power players obviously in his corner.

    But a rabid dog can still bite hard before it is put down.
    I'm trying to think of a good pun on the Wagner group.

    If they were on bicycles with bells it would be easier, because then Wagner would be leading the ring, cycle coup.
    It’s a tricky one, was trying to work something with Operation Valkyrie, die Valkyrie and Wagner but gave up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Google maps is telling me about 7.5 hours from Voronezh to Moscow.
    Fastest route avoids road closure in E115.

    If Putin commands the air (looks like he does) then the convoys will be obliterated before they get anywhere near Moscow. Wagner surely have a plan for this. Insurrection at air bases? Aircraft of their own?
    Who knows ?
    It’s basically a battle of confidence at this point. If enough of the regular army stays loyal and fights, it’s over; if they don’t, it’s over for Putin.

    Wagner’s social media game is definitely superior. It’s not impossible for it to be the first military coup where that’s decisive.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218
    Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    Are you suggesting that you're f@£&ed?

    I suppose that's technically true, in one sense.

  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    Hahaha. All the time in the world won't over come your incel nature. Women are repulsed by you. That is why your deep seated anger at life leads you to adore flabby chested gollums like Vova Putin. Whether this coup succeeds or fails, Russia will now collapse in Ukraine, which means the beady eyed midget will fall from power and end up with a bullet through the skull. Tick tock. Tick tock.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    Of all the the specimens of misplaced self importance on here, the idea that the Russian state is going to sick a series of Olgino trolls on to this musty corner of the internet is the most risible. The chances of *insert vapid username* not being some random or even PB grown troublemaker looking for validation are minuscule.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Another one just left Moscow, heading in St P direction.
    https://www.flightradar24.com/RSD629/30da93e2

    If the whole Russian VIP fleet is heading that way, it’s difficult to believe that Putin isn’t on one of them.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Theshard said:

    superiority and the ability to discover and destroy enemy troop concentrations and supply depots får behind the frontline. Good Russian reconnaissance makes strategic, and often even tactical, surprise nearly impossible. Russia also have a clear advantage in artillery. Russian air superiority and good reconnaissance makes Ukrainian attacks very hard. Especially since there are enormous amounts of mines everywhere. The UkrAF also seems to lack good Air Defence at the frontline. Russian losses of aircrafts has been very low. When Ukrainian ground units attack they must attack through mine fields since they can't demine them in advance due to Russian fire control. Ukrainian forces can't concentrate in huge numbers since they will be discovered in advance if they do that. The Ukrainians have to rush through the minefields with limited resources and hope that their follow up reinforcements don't get to mauled by Russian air power and artillery. If the Ukrainian forces are strong enough RuAF retreat and their old positions become an artillery trap. After a while the newly captured Ukrainian position is transformed to a moon landscape and Russian forces counterattack. Mostly they succeeds in recapturing lost territory and the Ukrainians withdraw. Sometimes Ukrainian units hold on to newly captured positions and move the frontline one or two kilometers, but to a high price. During these 19 days Ukraine has fought an uphill battle, which seemed doomed from the start. The result is probably clearly higher casualties among the Ukrainians, than by the Russian side. This means that UkrAF becomes weaker in comparison to the RuAF. That's one goal not achieved. If the other goals where successful you could accept normal losses, but that's not the case. Ukrainian territorial gains, both on the Southern and Eastern fronts has been minimal and nothing indicates that will change. That in combination with high losses, especially losses on video, destroys all possibility of a propaganda victory. Now Ukraine must try to hide the failed counteroffensive by denying it's existence and downplaying the losses. Ukraine and its supporters still dominate western media so they might have some success there. But doubts will grow even in the west, that the war is winnable and worth spending huge resources on.

    RusGPT not brilliant is it.
    About as good as some incoherent drivel this morning, clearly produced by AI, claiming 20% of public sector workers did nothing and could be sacked without there being any difference to public services.
    What do we do today that we didn't do in 2015 that requires 1m more people to be employed by the state? I'm not suggesting we go to 1980s level of staffing, just back to 2015.
    Where on earth are we employing 1 million more people - got a link? Because in no sector that I can think of are numbers higher?

    Local government fewer
    Nhs reliant on agency staff
    Schools cutting staff to cover energy and other costs?
    Social care needing even more agency staff..
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,278
    Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    PPOR 😂
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Of all the the specimens of misplaced self importance on here, the idea that the Russian state is going to sick a series of Olgino trolls on to this musty corner of the internet is the most risible. The chances of *insert vapid username* not being some random or even PB grown troublemaker looking for validation are minuscule.

    Both seem pretty inexplicable explanations to me, yet someone is clearly doing it, and with a level of committment to the style and capitalisation of a foreign user that is far more effort than it is worth.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    So, coup under way in Russia.

    Is the Wagner guy any saner than Putin? Or worse? And at which point does the coup escalate into a nuclear-armed civil war?

    Be more Worf. Perhaps today is a good day to die!

    My understanding is Prigozhin is worse than Putin.
    But he might (assuming he wins) decide to call it a day. Throw Putin under the bus, "It's all his fault." and then take over Russia.

    Worlds biggest country is still quite the prize.
    Wagner is not taking over anything - no political backing, no power players obviously in his corner.

    But a rabid dog can still bite hard before it is put down.
    I'm trying to think of a good pun on the Wagner group.

    If they were on bicycles with bells it would be easier, because then Wagner would be leading the ring, cycle coup.
    It’s a tricky one, was trying to work something with Operation Valkyrie, die Valkyrie and Wagner but gave up.
    Just aim low - 'n grin at your effort......
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    Greatest post of all time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited June 2023
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Theshard said:

    superiority and the ability to discover and destroy enemy troop concentrations and supply depots får behind the frontline. Good Russian reconnaissance makes strategic, and often even tactical, surprise nearly impossible. Russia also have a clear advantage in artillery. Russian air superiority and good reconnaissance makes Ukrainian attacks very hard. Especially since there are enormous amounts of mines everywhere. The UkrAF also seems to lack good Air Defence at the frontline. Russian losses of aircrafts has been very low. When Ukrainian ground units attack they must attack through mine fields since they can't demine them in advance due to Russian fire control. Ukrainian forces can't concentrate in huge numbers since they will be discovered in advance if they do that. The Ukrainians have to rush through the minefields with limited resources and hope that their follow up reinforcements don't get to mauled by Russian air power and artillery. If the Ukrainian forces are strong enough RuAF retreat and their old positions become an artillery trap. After a while the newly captured Ukrainian position is transformed to a moon landscape and Russian forces counterattack. Mostly they succeeds in recapturing lost territory and the Ukrainians withdraw. Sometimes Ukrainian units hold on to newly captured positions and move the frontline one or two kilometers, but to a high price. During these 19 days Ukraine has fought an uphill battle, which seemed doomed from the start. The result is probably clearly higher casualties among the Ukrainians, than by the Russian side. This means that UkrAF becomes weaker in comparison to the RuAF. That's one goal not achieved. If the other goals where successful you could accept normal losses, but that's not the case. Ukrainian territorial gains, both on the Southern and Eastern fronts has been minimal and nothing indicates that will change. That in combination with high losses, especially losses on video, destroys all possibility of a propaganda victory. Now Ukraine must try to hide the failed counteroffensive by denying it's existence and downplaying the losses. Ukraine and its supporters still dominate western media so they might have some success there. But doubts will grow even in the west, that the war is winnable and worth spending huge resources on.

    RusGPT not brilliant is it.
    About as good as some incoherent drivel this morning, clearly produced by AI, claiming 20% of public sector workers did nothing and could be sacked without there being any difference to public services.
    What do we do today that we didn't do in 2015 that requires 1m more people to be employed by the state? I'm not suggesting we go to 1980s level of staffing, just back to 2015.
    Where on earth are we employing 1 million more people - got a link? Because in no sector that I can think of are numbers higher?

    Local government fewer
    Nhs reliant on agency staff
    Schools cutting staff to cover energy and other costs?
    Social care needing even more agency staff..
    Public Sector Employment by Sector; Central Gov; UK; HC; SA; Thousands

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/publicsectorpersonnel/timeseries/g6nq/pse

    Looks like 800k more than 2015, 1 million more than 2012.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Theshard said:

    superiority and the ability to discover and destroy enemy troop concentrations and supply depots får behind the frontline. Good Russian reconnaissance makes strategic, and often even tactical, surprise nearly impossible. Russia also have a clear advantage in artillery. Russian air superiority and good reconnaissance makes Ukrainian attacks very hard. Especially since there are enormous amounts of mines everywhere. The UkrAF also seems to lack good Air Defence at the frontline. Russian losses of aircrafts has been very low. When Ukrainian ground units attack they must attack through mine fields since they can't demine them in advance due to Russian fire control. Ukrainian forces can't concentrate in huge numbers since they will be discovered in advance if they do that. The Ukrainians have to rush through the minefields with limited resources and hope that their follow up reinforcements don't get to mauled by Russian air power and artillery. If the Ukrainian forces are strong enough RuAF retreat and their old positions become an artillery trap. After a while the newly captured Ukrainian position is transformed to a moon landscape and Russian forces counterattack. Mostly they succeeds in recapturing lost territory and the Ukrainians withdraw. Sometimes Ukrainian units hold on to newly captured positions and move the frontline one or two kilometers, but to a high price. During these 19 days Ukraine has fought an uphill battle, which seemed doomed from the start. The result is probably clearly higher casualties among the Ukrainians, than by the Russian side. This means that UkrAF becomes weaker in comparison to the RuAF. That's one goal not achieved. If the other goals where successful you could accept normal losses, but that's not the case. Ukrainian territorial gains, both on the Southern and Eastern fronts has been minimal and nothing indicates that will change. That in combination with high losses, especially losses on video, destroys all possibility of a propaganda victory. Now Ukraine must try to hide the failed counteroffensive by denying it's existence and downplaying the losses. Ukraine and its supporters still dominate western media so they might have some success there. But doubts will grow even in the west, that the war is winnable and worth spending huge resources on.

    RusGPT not brilliant is it.
    About as good as some incoherent drivel this morning, clearly produced by AI, claiming 20% of public sector workers did nothing and could be sacked without there being any difference to public services.
    What do we do today that we didn't do in 2015 that requires 1m more people to be employed by the state? I'm not suggesting we go to 1980s level of staffing, just back to 2015.
    Where on earth are we employing 1 million more people - got a link? Because in no sector that I can think of are numbers higher?

    Local government fewer
    Nhs reliant on agency staff
    Schools cutting staff to cover energy and other costs?
    Social care needing even more agency staff..
    There are two thousand more at the DfE but I suspect that is due to the hollowing out of LEAs as Gove and Morgan centralised everything, so it's probably balanced by losses elsewhere.

    Equally, with London weighting the cost is likely much higher overall.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    That post will go down in history. What a comeback :D
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    Leon said:

    Meanwhile, Yousless has been speaking at SNP conference, and stopped talking to go and personally discuss with a heckler. And then said that an independent Scotland could see "transformational change"

    Yes. motorhomes for all, not just for the CEO.

    Not now, Scotland. Read the room
    Yousless IS reading the room. If the UK gets nuked, Scotland will be far less damaged than England, AND with so much agricultural and energy assets likely still left intact would hold the Whip Hand. So there :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Sandpit said:

    Another one just left Moscow, heading in St P direction.
    https://www.flightradar24.com/RSD629/30da93e2

    If the whole Russian VIP fleet is heading that way, it’s difficult to believe that Putin isn’t on one of them.

    Boy, you can really see a warzone on that map

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Theshard said:

    superiority and the ability to discover and destroy enemy troop concentrations and supply depots får behind the frontline. Good Russian reconnaissance makes strategic, and often even tactical, surprise nearly impossible. Russia also have a clear advantage in artillery. Russian air superiority and good reconnaissance makes Ukrainian attacks very hard. Especially since there are enormous amounts of mines everywhere. The UkrAF also seems to lack good Air Defence at the frontline. Russian losses of aircrafts has been very low. When Ukrainian ground units attack they must attack through mine fields since they can't demine them in advance due to Russian fire control. Ukrainian forces can't concentrate in huge numbers since they will be discovered in advance if they do that. The Ukrainians have to rush through the minefields with limited resources and hope that their follow up reinforcements don't get to mauled by Russian air power and artillery. If the Ukrainian forces are strong enough RuAF retreat and their old positions become an artillery trap. After a while the newly captured Ukrainian position is transformed to a moon landscape and Russian forces counterattack. Mostly they succeeds in recapturing lost territory and the Ukrainians withdraw. Sometimes Ukrainian units hold on to newly captured positions and move the frontline one or two kilometers, but to a high price. During these 19 days Ukraine has fought an uphill battle, which seemed doomed from the start. The result is probably clearly higher casualties among the Ukrainians, than by the Russian side. This means that UkrAF becomes weaker in comparison to the RuAF. That's one goal not achieved. If the other goals where successful you could accept normal losses, but that's not the case. Ukrainian territorial gains, both on the Southern and Eastern fronts has been minimal and nothing indicates that will change. That in combination with high losses, especially losses on video, destroys all possibility of a propaganda victory. Now Ukraine must try to hide the failed counteroffensive by denying it's existence and downplaying the losses. Ukraine and its supporters still dominate western media so they might have some success there. But doubts will grow even in the west, that the war is winnable and worth spending huge resources on.

    RusGPT not brilliant is it.
    About as good as some incoherent drivel this morning, clearly produced by AI, claiming 20% of public sector workers did nothing and could be sacked without there being any difference to public services.
    What do we do today that we didn't do in 2015 that requires 1m more people to be employed by the state? I'm not suggesting we go to 1980s level of staffing, just back to 2015.
    Where on earth are we employing 1 million more people - got a link? Because in no sector that I can think of are numbers higher?

    Local government fewer
    Nhs reliant on agency staff
    Schools cutting staff to cover energy and other costs?
    Social care needing even more agency staff..
    Someone has to run the gender diversity courses.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,422
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    This, unforrunately, does look like a civil war *might potentially* develop.

    Unless Progozhin gets his forces to Moscow quickly, or activates any forces if they're already inside Moscow quickly.

    You and I have very different definitions of the word "unfortunately".

    Personally I think Russians killing Ukrainians is more unfortunate than Russians killing Russians.
    I think what @WhisperingOracle means is that the best outcome is a short sharp coup, Putin falls, and the new regime calls a truce in/withdraws from Ukraine as it concentrates on firming power in Russia. As the bolsheviks did in WW1

    Much less appealing is a full on, full scale Russian civil war with both sides armed with nukes. That is going to kill many innocent people and could easily spill over into international catastrophe
    Destabilising the Russian Federation has been touted as a beneficial side-effect of Western support for Ukraine. Relax, Sunak and Cleverly will have anticipated this and thought it all through very carefully.
    This must be a really tough day for you.

    Your boys are taking a hell of a beating.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    kle4 said:

    Of all the the specimens of misplaced self importance on here, the idea that the Russian state is going to sick a series of Olgino trolls on to this musty corner of the internet is the most risible. The chances of *insert vapid username* not being some random or even PB grown troublemaker looking for validation are minuscule.

    Both seem pretty inexplicable explanations to me, yet someone is clearly doing it, and with a level of committment to the style and capitalisation of a foreign user that is far more effort than it is worth.
    If only there was an example of a freelancer with a long standing commitment to trying out a series of personae (with admittedly often crappy attempts at differentiation) on PB.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Google maps is telling me about 7.5 hours from Voronezh to Moscow.
    Fastest route avoids road closure in E115.

    If Putin commands the air (looks like he does) then the convoys will be obliterated before they get anywhere near Moscow. Wagner surely have a plan for this. Insurrection at air bases? Aircraft of their own?
    Who knows ?
    It’s basically a battle of confidence at this point. If enough of the regular army stays loyal and fights, it’s over; if they don’t, it’s over for Putin.

    Wagner’s social media game is definitely superior. It’s not impossible for it to be the first military coup where that’s decisive.
    As I recall from previous discussions bombing these convoys from the air is not possible because the precision isn't good enough. That is why the traffic jam in to Kiev last year wasn't just bombed from the air.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited June 2023

    Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    Greatest post of all time.
    One is never too old to enjoy the company of beautiful women, surely ?
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think the wishes for chaos in Russia are unwise.

    A country as vast and well-armed as that does not spiral into chaos without it affecting large areas of the rest of the world, for diverse, military, migratory , and economic reasons. It wouldn't be something we could just cheerfully watch from our armchairs.

    Hopefully there will be a full blown civil war and the country will be less vast and less well armed by the end of it.
    C'mon. This is heartless, blase and juvenile.
    I have plenty of heart for the victims of Moscow's aggression.

    Which includes plenty of every day Russians who are repressed and sent to the meat grinder in order to support Moscow's regime.

    The collapse of Russia as a unitary state would be great news for the world, and great news for ordinary Russians.

    Why are you so heartless as to oppose that?
    But a 'full blown civil war in Russia' - your words - really isn't something to hope for. It'd be terrible in and of itself plus nobody can model where it leads with any confidence at all.
    You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.

    If the choice is Russians fighting Ukrainians, or Russians fighting Russians, then I unabashedly support the latter.

    Don't you?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Theshard said:

    superiority and the ability to discover and destroy enemy troop concentrations and supply depots får behind the frontline. Good Russian reconnaissance makes strategic, and often even tactical, surprise nearly impossible. Russia also have a clear advantage in artillery. Russian air superiority and good reconnaissance makes Ukrainian attacks very hard. Especially since there are enormous amounts of mines everywhere. The UkrAF also seems to lack good Air Defence at the frontline. Russian losses of aircrafts has been very low. When Ukrainian ground units attack they must attack through mine fields since they can't demine them in advance due to Russian fire control. Ukrainian forces can't concentrate in huge numbers since they will be discovered in advance if they do that. The Ukrainians have to rush through the minefields with limited resources and hope that their follow up reinforcements don't get to mauled by Russian air power and artillery. If the Ukrainian forces are strong enough RuAF retreat and their old positions become an artillery trap. After a while the newly captured Ukrainian position is transformed to a moon landscape and Russian forces counterattack. Mostly they succeeds in recapturing lost territory and the Ukrainians withdraw. Sometimes Ukrainian units hold on to newly captured positions and move the frontline one or two kilometers, but to a high price. During these 19 days Ukraine has fought an uphill battle, which seemed doomed from the start. The result is probably clearly higher casualties among the Ukrainians, than by the Russian side. This means that UkrAF becomes weaker in comparison to the RuAF. That's one goal not achieved. If the other goals where successful you could accept normal losses, but that's not the case. Ukrainian territorial gains, both on the Southern and Eastern fronts has been minimal and nothing indicates that will change. That in combination with high losses, especially losses on video, destroys all possibility of a propaganda victory. Now Ukraine must try to hide the failed counteroffensive by denying it's existence and downplaying the losses. Ukraine and its supporters still dominate western media so they might have some success there. But doubts will grow even in the west, that the war is winnable and worth spending huge resources on.

    RusGPT not brilliant is it.
    About as good as some incoherent drivel this morning, clearly produced by AI, claiming 20% of public sector workers did nothing and could be sacked without there being any difference to public services.
    What do we do today that we didn't do in 2015 that requires 1m more people to be employed by the state? I'm not suggesting we go to 1980s level of staffing, just back to 2015.
    Where on earth are we employing 1 million more people - got a link? Because in no sector that I can think of are numbers higher?

    Local government fewer
    Nhs reliant on agency staff
    Schools cutting staff to cover energy and other costs?
    Social care needing even more agency staff..
    Someone has to run the gender diversity courses.
    It seems to be very well paid, so anyone looking for an easy career change should consider it - you just need to google what is trendy online for 5 minutes and you are ready.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    Are you suggesting that you're f@£&ed?

    I suppose that's technically true, in one sense.

    The salty tears of the reactionary nationalists and Russia stans are delicious. Just like the Islamists, just like the communists before them, just like the Nazis before them, they have been exposed. The mirage of a potential superior system to Western democracy and freedom has blown up. They are in the dustbin of history and their demise is now upon us. Losers, losers, losers. It is so sweet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,422
    ydoethur said:

    Theshard said:

    I saw a photo of rcs the other day and thought theres the face of a man whos wife married him for money.

    Blimey. Ban hammer not so much incoming as splatting after that.
    Doubt it. Rcs will just be laughing into his coffee.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited June 2023

    kle4 said:

    Of all the the specimens of misplaced self importance on here, the idea that the Russian state is going to sick a series of Olgino trolls on to this musty corner of the internet is the most risible. The chances of *insert vapid username* not being some random or even PB grown troublemaker looking for validation are minuscule.

    Both seem pretty inexplicable explanations to me, yet someone is clearly doing it, and with a level of committment to the style and capitalisation of a foreign user that is far more effort than it is worth.
    If only there was an example of a freelancer with a long standing commitment to trying out a series of personae (with admittedly often crappy attempts at differentiation) on PB.
    Clearly not one of his, and who else would bother?

    I agree its absurd someone would pay others to waste time on a blog, but it all seems so dumb either way.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Theshard said:

    Theshard said:

    This, unforrunately, does look like a civil war *might potentially* develop.

    Unless Progozhin gets his forces to Moscow quickly, or activates any forces if they're already inside Moscow quickly.

    You and I have very different definitions of the word "unfortunately".

    Personally I think Russians killing Ukrainians is more unfortunate than Russians killing Russians.
    You have no compassion or regard for human life. You disgust me and you disgust good men like kinabalu.
    I have a lot of regard for Ukrainian lives, and the way they're fighting off your invaders. 👍
    Shame tens of thousands have died then. Have you seen the mass graves.
    We have. In Krasnodar, and Vladikavkaz, in Saratov and Tuva. Not to mention, the bodies left to rot in the fields.

  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Yeah well fuck you haters, I am able to spend my time in the company with beautiful women.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Nigelb said:

    Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    Greatest post of all time.
    One is never too old to enjoy the company of beautiful women, surely ?
    Berlusconi is.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    ydoethur said:

    Theshard said:

    I saw a photo of rcs the other day and thought theres the face of a man whos wife married him for money.

    Blimey. Ban hammer not so much incoming as splatting after that.
    Doubt it. Rcs will just be laughing into his coffee.
    I hope rcs avoids the ban hammer so we can continue playing with the guy. Want him about when Putin is thrown off a bridge.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    Sandpit said:

    Damnit why have I been banned from watching RT? It would be great to turn it on and watch what is *really* happening, with Alex Salmond and George Galloway giving us the truth.

    It’s still there, even if no-one is watching…
    https://www.rt.com/on-air/
    Thanks! I am watching! "WAGNER MUTINY" is their strapline.

    UPDATE - they are confirming that Putin is absolutely winning, seizing all of the assets of the evil Wagner. Huzzah!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,422
    Theshard said:

    Time for you guys to get your excitement elsewhere....thankfully im young and handsome enough to enjoy time with beautiful women...some of you guys not so much.

    Good idea. Time to shut the laptop down and do a runner.

    Very wise.
This discussion has been closed.