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How will the Tory betting look after tonight’s TV debate? – politicalbetting.com

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  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Can the 22 committe change the rules so that Graham Brady draws a revolver after each vote is announced and shoots the loser? Because jesus fucking wept this performance.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,967

    Rishi - better than expected
    TT - solid
    Kemi - good
    Penny - disappointing
    Truss - dire.

    I don’t think anyones going to be able to keep me voting Tory at the next election on these performances. Well, Kemi might, but she won’t get it.

    Agree Truss is dire. This is not her format which is a shame because there are three or four more to come I think.

    PM seems to not be firing on all cylinders.
    Even when she says something sensible, she comes across poorly.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886

    Biggest loser given her position in the betting is Penny.

    She is the Beyond Meat of the candidates. A lot of hype. An absurd pile-on which drives her share price into the stratosphere.

    Then people finally get to sample the product and say "this is shit".
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    kle4 said:

    I almost feel bad for whoever takes over, since even if they do a good job it may well be that inflation etc does for them and they end up as the shortest serving PM in decades.

    That’s why Kemi should really be a LOTO first I think. Give her time and space to grow and really build her team and ideas.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    jonny83 said:

    jonny83 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Penny and Liz doing a pincer movement against Rishi on tax and Tugendhat also said he would have voted against the NI rise

    Yeah but he appears credible and they don't. Your party is out of its mind if he isn't Prime Minister by September.
    Sunak isn't winning a GE IMO.
    I don't think any of them are. But Sunak I think would probably avoid the culture wars and is vaguely competent.
    Are you forgetting his performance as Chancellor? He has no answers to this cost of living crisis.
    He doesn't, no. But neither do the others and he'd not actively make it worse.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,755
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe after all that it will be a choice between Sunak and Badenoch.

    Interesting they are getting on so well. She clearly respects him and he’s not having a go at her at all.
    Surely he wouldn't want her as Chancellor? Not straight from a MS job?
    No, but HS maybe.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Truss has be the worst potential PM of the last fifty years.

    Hugh Fraser, John Redwood, Diane Abbott all wave hello.
    Er, Jeremy Corbyn???
    She's worse than Corbyn.

    She really really really isn't worse than an anti-Semitic IRA-loving quasi-Islamist Marxist traitor. Sorry
    Pint of warm goats piss Vs dogturd sandwich.
    Sounds like one of those combo cans from a microbrewery
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    MikeL said:

    Lots of Con members won't have a clue .

    Don't need to go beyond that bit perhaps?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320

    Truss keeps saying she gets things done but I cannot recall anything she has got done

    You can't be listening. She has signed great trade deals, she has beaten the EU/IRA and she has beaten Putin. She has repeated this for every question.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    IshmaelZ said:

    Rishi - better than expected
    TT - solid
    Kemi - good
    Penny - disappointing
    Truss - dire.

    I don’t think anyones going to be able to keep me voting Tory at the next election on these performances. Well, Kemi might, but she won’t get it.

    I want a TT and Bad Enoch pact
    Wonder what the original Bad Enoch would be saying right now? Or rather, sputtering?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,321
    'Magic money tree.'

    Downs shot.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886

    My order tonight

    Rishi
    Tom
    Kemi
    Penny
    Truss and a near terminal performance

    Completely agree. I expected Sunak to be good and he is. Tommy T a big surprise. Kemi remains the interesting and intriguing leftfield proposition. I've just compared Mordor to a crap fake burger. And Truss is Harriet Jones.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    Can’t the 22 just find a way to give it to Rishi.

    (Kemi quite clearly going to endorse Rishi)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    HYUFD said:

    Might be difficult to assess betting odds here as to how a reasonably normal, intelligent person might react to the candidates, vs a) Tory MPs, b) Tory party members. E.g. the latter, when offered a choice between Ken Clarke and Ian Duncan Smith, chose Smith.... (not exactly electoral dynamite).

    Indeed, the most relevant comments on here are from Tory members or Tory MPs as we are the only ones who get to vote for them
    You must however accept you are not the spokesperson for 160,000 members- you are one voice amongst that group
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,607

    Rishi - better than expected
    TT - solid
    Kemi - good
    Penny - disappointing
    Truss - dire.

    I don’t think anyones going to be able to keep me voting Tory at the next election on these performances. Well, Kemi might, but she won’t get it.

    Agree Truss is dire. This is not her format which is a shame because there are three or four more to come I think.

    PM seems to not be firing on all cylinders.
    Even when she says something sensible, she comes across poorly.
    It is sad. She wants it so so so very much but she isn't good enough.

    Sorry to be brutal. But that is the game.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    I’ve backed Sunak into the green again. Perhaps misplaced faith in even Tory members to vote for a grown up, but still…
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,967
    Not convinced by Kemi’s furlough caused inflation argument, nor do I think it will go down well with voters.
  • OnboardG1 said:

    Can the 22 committe change the rules so that Graham Brady draws a revolver after each vote is announced and shoots the loser? Because jesus fucking wept this
    performance.

    I like that idea, but can he shoot the winner instead?

  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    edited July 2022

    My order tonight

    Rishi
    Tom
    Kemi
    Penny
    Truss and a near terminal performance

    Completely agree. I expected Sunak to be good and he is. Tommy T a big surprise. Kemi remains the interesting and intriguing leftfield proposition. I've just compared Mordor to a crap fake burger. And Truss is Harriet Jones.
    Truss is coming across like an Armando Iannucci concept that was rejected for being too unrealistic.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    GIN1138 said:

    Rish annoying me with his hand movements. He's been studying old Tony Blair performances on YouTube hasn't he? ;)

    He has.

    But

    he hasn't started

    talking in

    staccato phrases of

    up to three

    words.

    Like Blair.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    ydoethur said:

    Sunak is like Blair.

    But with all his faults, Blair was a much better PM than any recent offering - and I say that as somebody who unusually always despised and distrusted him.

    Blair actually had vision.

    Can someone please tell me what Rishi’s vision is?

    I wonder what he makes of this graph.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320

    My order tonight

    Rishi
    Tom
    Kemi
    Penny
    Truss and a near terminal performance

    You could put it like this:

    Sunak
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Tugs
    Kemi
    Penny
    .
    .
    .
    Fizzy Lizzy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679

    HYUFD said:

    Might be difficult to assess betting odds here as to how a reasonably normal, intelligent person might react to the candidates, vs a) Tory MPs, b) Tory party members. E.g. the latter, when offered a choice between Ken Clarke and Ian Duncan Smith, chose Smith.... (not exactly electoral dynamite).

    Indeed, the most relevant comments on here are from Tory members or Tory MPs as we are the only ones who get to vote for them
    You must however accept you are not the spokesperson for 160,000 members- you are one voice amongst that group
    And for most of that group at the moment the polling is clear, it is anyone but Rishi. I am not even particularly anti Sunak
  • Sunak is a return to 2015 + Brexit
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,241

    GIN1138 said:

    Rish annoying me with his hand movements. He's been studying old Tony Blair performances on YouTube hasn't he? ;)

    He has.

    But

    he hasn't started

    talking in

    staccato phrases of

    up to three

    words.

    Like Blair.
    Yet... ;)
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Gets worse and worse for Truss

    She's awful.

    Members would be mad to elect her.
    Truss it is then
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,700

    Can’t the 22 just find a way to give it to Rishi.

    (Kemi quite clearly going to endorse Rishi)

    Kemi is very important here - Truss's chances have been based on getting most of Kemi's votes.

    If she doesn't she has no chance.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,751

    Truss keeps saying she gets things done but I cannot recall anything she has got done

    Brexit?
    Cheese and pork markets?
    She’s finished her campaign tonight too
    Oh, to be a fly on the wall in the ERG Whatsapp group.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    OnboardG1 said:

    My order tonight

    Rishi
    Tom
    Kemi
    Penny
    Truss and a near terminal performance

    Completely agree. I expected Sunak to be good and he is. Tommy T a big surprise. Kemi remains the interesting and intriguing leftfield proposition. I've just compared Mordor to a crap fake burger. And Truss is Harriet Jones.
    Truss is coming across like an Armando Iannucci concept that was rejected for being too unrealistic.
    Stepford wife with designed in obsolescence to persuade punters to upgrade the hardware
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rish annoying me with his hand movements. He's been studying old Tony Blair performances on YouTube hasn't he? ;)

    Yes
    He has sounded like Tone for years. Particularly the pauses and the clipped sentences.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    OnboardG1 said:

    Can the 22 committe change the rules so that Graham Brady draws a revolver after each vote is announced and shoots the loser? Because jesus fucking wept this performance.

    Yeah. Or, better still, get the nominations in and gather together the '22.

    "Sunak?" Yeah ok
    "Truss" Really? Jesus
    "Chisti" Who is he?
    "Braverman" Oh fuck off she isn't running

    Eliminate them based on order of credulity.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak is I’m afraid to say the only candidate that looks like they could cope with the PM job . On taxes he’s coming across very well and Truss looks clueless .

    Tory members want tax cuts, they are the deciding electorate he so far has failed to reach
    How Tory members vote will depend on how much they want to win the next election.

    If they are determined to win they'll pick a grown up who doesn't give them sweeties straight away.

    If they no longer care about winning they'll pick a different grown up who has a joined up plan to pay for tax cuts by slashing the size of the state in the Thatcherite manner. Which will no longer work as the debate has moved on since 1987, and besides there aren't millions of council houses left with which to bribe people.

    If they want to take the cakeist approach then they'll pick another charlatan who promises them sweeties now, to be paid for by magic beans or something, and keep their fingers crossed that the wider electorate are too dense to see through the conceit.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,700
    That was Penny's best answer - these debates can't be a forum for just offering people money.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Is everyone watching a different debate ?
    Much of a muchness the lot of them I reckon.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,967
    ydoethur said:

    Sunak is like Blair.

    But with all his faults, Blair was a much better PM than any recent offering - and I say that as somebody who unusually always despised and distrusted him.

    I was just thinking the same, he’s like Blair. And Blair won elections.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Truss keeps saying she gets things done but I cannot recall anything she has got done

    Brexit?
    Cheese and pork markets?
    She’s finished her campaign tonight too
    Oh, to be a fly on the wall in the ERG Whatsapp group.
    Bit too much like listening to a Cult of The Elder Gods meeting for my liking. Sanity checks all around.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886

    HYUFD said:

    Might be difficult to assess betting odds here as to how a reasonably normal, intelligent person might react to the candidates, vs a) Tory MPs, b) Tory party members. E.g. the latter, when offered a choice between Ken Clarke and Ian Duncan Smith, chose Smith.... (not exactly electoral dynamite).

    Indeed, the most relevant comments on here are from Tory members or Tory MPs as we are the only ones who get to vote for them
    You must however accept you are not the spokesperson for 160,000 members- you are one voice amongst that group
    Anyone who disagrees with HY is not a True Tory and can be ignored.
  • Penny is totally out of her depth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679

    HYUFD said:

    Might be difficult to assess betting odds here as to how a reasonably normal, intelligent person might react to the candidates, vs a) Tory MPs, b) Tory party members. E.g. the latter, when offered a choice between Ken Clarke and Ian Duncan Smith, chose Smith.... (not exactly electoral dynamite).

    Indeed, the most relevant comments on here are from Tory members or Tory MPs as we are the only ones who get to vote for them
    "Fuck the voters"
    The voters didn't get a say when Labour elected Gordon Brown PM either. We are a parliamentary democracy, we don't have an elected President
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,916
    Anyway, a reminder that there are (even) worse potential leaders out there. Didn’t Ivana accuse him of rape at one point?



  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,321

    ydoethur said:

    Sunak is like Blair.

    But with all his faults, Blair was a much better PM than any recent offering - and I say that as somebody who unusually always despised and distrusted him.

    Blair actually had vision.

    Can someone please tell me what Rishi’s vision is?

    I wonder what he makes of this graph.

    Blair had vision? What was it? I remember an enormous number of cliches - 'Britain forward not back, education, education, education, tough on crime tough on the causes of crime' - but I couldn't tell you what they meant.

    Just as Thatcher's 'vision' was very often her making stuff up as she needed to, with varying degrees of success.

    What they both were - for good or for ill - was decisive, and they had a willingness to listen to others if they knew their stuff and decide accordingly.

    Does Sunak have that? If I'm honest I don't know. But what I can say is that apart possibly from Tugendhat and even more tenuously Badenoch the others are showing they don't have it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited July 2022

    Truss keeps saying she gets things done but I cannot recall anything she has got done

    Brexit?
    Cheese and pork markets?
    She’s finished her campaign tonight too
    Oh, to be a fly on the wall in the ERG Whatsapp group.
    Brexit Brexit Brexit
    The left are after us!
    Brexit!
    Maybe we should call Sunak woke?
    Brexit!!!
    Dirty traitors, not like us who vote against our governments
    What can we do?
    Anti democratic if we lose
    ...Brexit.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    Instead of flouncing George Osborne should have played the long game, he'd be running rings around all of them and he'd probably give Kemi No. 11, he shouldn't have taken being sacked by May so personally.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Might be difficult to assess betting odds here as to how a reasonably normal, intelligent person might react to the candidates, vs a) Tory MPs, b) Tory party members. E.g. the latter, when offered a choice between Ken Clarke and Ian Duncan Smith, chose Smith.... (not exactly electoral dynamite).

    Indeed, the most relevant comments on here are from Tory members or Tory MPs as we are the only ones who get to vote for them
    "Fuck the voters"
    The voters didn't get a say when Labour elected Gordon Brown PM either. We are a parliamentary democracy, we don't have an elected President
    Your lot spent a year saying we should have
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    Truss keeps saying she gets things done but I cannot recall anything she has got done

    Brexit?
    Cheese and pork markets?
    She’s finished her campaign tonight too
    Oh, to be a fly on the wall in the ERG Whatsapp group.
    Here’s a screenshot from the ERG WhatsApp


  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,751

    Betfair next PM

    2.04 Penny Mordaunt 49%
    3.75 Liz Truss 27%
    4.6 Rishi Sunak 22%
    32 Kemi Badenoch
    130 Tom Tugendhat
    130 Dominic Raab

    Betfair to make the final two

    1.27 Rishi Sunak 79%
    1.43 Penny Mordaunt 70%
    2.16 Liz Truss 46%
    16.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
    60 Tom Tugendhat

    Commercial break betting:-

    2.06 Penny Mordaunt 49%
    4.2 Rishi Sunak 24%
    4.3 Liz Truss 23%
    34 Tom Tugendhat
    36 Kemi Badenoch
    130 Dominic Raab

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,700
    CROSSOVER!

    RISHI BACK TO SECOND FAVOURITE.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282

    Truss keeps saying she gets things done but I cannot recall anything she has got done

    In her defence (through gritted teeth), some roll over trade deals. Which was more than Liam Fox managed.
    She also did well on gender identity bill as well.

    She's not shit. I just don't think she's PM material.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Might be difficult to assess betting odds here as to how a reasonably normal, intelligent person might react to the candidates, vs a) Tory MPs, b) Tory party members. E.g. the latter, when offered a choice between Ken Clarke and Ian Duncan Smith, chose Smith.... (not exactly electoral dynamite).

    Indeed, the most relevant comments on here are from Tory members or Tory MPs as we are the only ones who get to vote for them
    "Fuck the voters"
    The voters didn't get a say when Labour elected Gordon Brown PM either. We are a parliamentary democracy, we don't have an elected President
    Your lot spent a year saying we should have
    I didn't
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Curse these politicians and the imaginary boxes they all carry everywhere.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    People writing off Penny too quickly

    There are three of these debates. This is merely the first

    Truss is toast but beyond that.... who knows. Rishi's polish shows here, he is is Winchester and Megabank and ex-COTE

    But.... Which one will beat Starmer?

    It is Mordaunt v Sunak, I reckon, and the Tory members will decide, not us
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    MaxPB said:

    Instead of flouncing George Osborne should have played the long game, he'd be running rings around all of them and he'd probably give Kemi No. 11, he shouldn't have taken being sacked by May so personally.

    Osborne would probably have failed to beat Corbyn and a resurgent Farage
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    MikeL said:

    CROSSOVER!

    RISHI BACK TO SECOND FAVOURITE.

    A temporary move if the next members poll does not show improvement.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320

    Truss keeps saying she gets things done but I cannot recall anything she has got done

    Brexit?
    Cheese and pork markets?
    She’s finished her campaign tonight too
    Oh, to be a fly on the wall in the ERG Whatsapp group.
    If I was the ERG, all the chips would be placed on Bedenoch.
  • I can't believe that Princess Di group is still around, this was banter about four years ago
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    MaxPB said:

    Instead of flouncing George Osborne should have played the long game, he'd be running rings around all of them and he'd probably give Kemi No. 11, he shouldn't have taken being sacked by May so personally.

    He also probably thought May would win an election handsomely so he'd have been out of the inner circle for another 5 years.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Easy win for Sunak - because he is the only one who sounds at all realistic. Not saying he’ll win (I suspect he won’t) but at least he is willing to avoid Panglossianism.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    Biggest loser given her position in the betting is Penny.

    I agree Mike. But she is still clear favourite. Surprising.

    The comments by Moylan and Frost about her work ethic and ability have really undermined her credibility with me. The only recent candidate for UK PM where I remember similar concerns being raised, (although broader and much more serious concerns), was/is called Boris.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,321
    Sunak gets first dibs on the NHS question and therefore gets to do the obligatory worship at its shrine.

    That was lucky for him.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Is Penny deliberately coughing every time Rishi speaks?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak is I’m afraid to say the only candidate that looks like they could cope with the PM job . On taxes he’s coming across very well and Truss looks clueless .

    Tory members want tax cuts, they are the deciding electorate he so far has failed to reach
    How Tory members vote will depend on how much they want to win the next election.

    If they are determined to win they'll pick a grown up who doesn't give them sweeties straight away.

    If they no longer care about winning they'll pick a different grown up who has a joined up plan to pay for tax cuts by slashing the size of the state in the Thatcherite manner. Which will no longer work as the debate has moved on since 1987, and besides there aren't millions of council houses left with which to bribe people.

    If they want to take the cakeist approach then they'll pick another charlatan who promises them sweeties now, to be paid for by magic beans or something, and keep their fingers crossed that the wider electorate are too dense to see through the conceit.
    Tory members have won 4 general elections in a row, they want tax cuts now not power for the sake of it, especially now Starmer has replaced Corbyn
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,607
    Cross over.

    Truss is done
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Has anyone said that we need to stop printing money, take control of the energy market and create a better relationship with Europe?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,638
    This is just wonderful. Sunak is clearly the best of them, but that really doesn’t say much - and if he wins the ERG and the Johnson faithful will go nuclear. Maybe they should start the whole contest again!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Might be difficult to assess betting odds here as to how a reasonably normal, intelligent person might react to the candidates, vs a) Tory MPs, b) Tory party members. E.g. the latter, when offered a choice between Ken Clarke and Ian Duncan Smith, chose Smith.... (not exactly electoral dynamite).

    Indeed, the most relevant comments on here are from Tory members or Tory MPs as we are the only ones who get to vote for them
    "Fuck the voters"
    The voters didn't get a say when Labour elected Gordon Brown PM either. We are a parliamentary democracy, we don't have an elected President
    You utterly miss the point. You can select Kareem Abdul-Jabar as lader if you want. But then you have to win the election. And if people keep looking a Mr AJ and instead of seeing an airline pilot as billed see a basketball player, you lose.

    So it isn't about what you lot want. Its about what your party's voters want.

    And this is your problem. You endlessly quote polls. Whilst saying that people who aren't you - especially Tory voters - can literally be ignored.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited July 2022
    Have been saying for some time, that Truss is highly undependable, short-lasting support.

    But thought that Mordaunt might have something. Instead, turns out she's Penny dreadful.

    Have personally always been allergic to "pretty boys" in politics; all looks, no substance.

    Is Penny Mordaunt just a "pretty girl" politico?

    One thing that occurs: for her, Badenoch and Sunak, this is likely NOT the last act in their political careers.

    Not sure same is true for Truss or Tugenhat.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Kemi answering a question about the NHS crisis and backlog by talking about her own chipped tooth is a clear and tragic fail…
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Penny is totally out of her depth.

    Sadly, yes. Sunak by far the best candidate. 😞
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,569
    @TSE there you go about the teeth!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,321
    Badenoch now saying her teeth are a mess because she's been unable to get an appointment to fix it.

    She has an NHS dentist? That surprises me, and I have to say I'm sceptical. I have to go private and I'm on a lot less than she is.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027

    Truss keeps saying she gets things done but I cannot recall anything she has got done

    Brexit?
    Cheese and pork markets?
    She’s finished her campaign tonight too
    Oh, to be a fly on the wall in the ERG Whatsapp group.
    If I was the ERG, all the chips would be placed on Bedenoch.
    You’d have to be concerned if you were a member of the ERG going for the Truss ticket. No idea what Steve Baker is thinking

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    DavidL said:

    Anyone not backing Rishi after this just isn’t serious.

    Have to agree. Whoever it is, will be PM in a month's time and won't be tested in an election after going through the LOTO apprenticeship.

    This debate changed my mind.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    I find it extremely hard to believe Kemi Badenoch, a Nigerian posho, can't afford £300 to get a chipped tooth fixed, privately

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Instead of flouncing George Osborne should have played the long game, he'd be running rings around all of them and he'd probably give Kemi No. 11, he shouldn't have taken being sacked by May so personally.

    Osborne would probably have failed to beat Corbyn and a resurgent Farage
    No, I mean he should have stuck around and waited out Theresa May, then made a play for a big role under Boris then laid in wait for Boris to implode. He'd be far and away the favourite today.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Kemi is alright. The tooth story very relatable.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Penny has been very disappointing. T
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Might be difficult to assess betting odds here as to how a reasonably normal, intelligent person might react to the candidates, vs a) Tory MPs, b) Tory party members. E.g. the latter, when offered a choice between Ken Clarke and Ian Duncan Smith, chose Smith.... (not exactly electoral dynamite).

    Indeed, the most relevant comments on here are from Tory members or Tory MPs as we are the only ones who get to vote for them
    "Fuck the voters"
    The voters didn't get a say when Labour elected Gordon Brown PM either. We are a parliamentary democracy, we don't have an elected President
    You utterly miss the point. You can select Kareem Abdul-Jabar as lader if you want. But then you have to win the election. And if people keep looking a Mr AJ and instead of seeing an airline pilot as billed see a basketball player, you lose.

    So it isn't about what you lot want. Its about what your party's voters want.

    And this is your problem. You endlessly quote polls. Whilst saying that people who aren't you - especially Tory voters - can literally be ignored.
    Tory voters want Mordaunt

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1547873650899951617?s=20&t=pZZNMt7u0iOQt3hBpLyCSg
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320
    ydoethur said:

    Sunak is like Blair.

    But with all his faults, Blair was a much better PM than any recent offering - and I say that as somebody who unusually always despised and distrusted him.

    A Poundland Blair?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Leon said:

    Is Penny deliberately coughing every time Rishi speaks?

    Maybe she's trying to communicate the answers to him so he wins the million quid.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,556
    MaxPB said:

    Instead of flouncing George Osborne should have played the long game, he'd be running rings around all of them and he'd probably give Kemi No. 11, he shouldn't have taken being sacked by May so personally.

    That Osborne preferred being a lackey to Russian oligarchs to being a backbencher shows that he wasn't fit to have any influence on running the country.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    MaxPB said:

    Instead of flouncing George Osborne should have played the long game, he'd be running rings around all of them and he'd probably give Kemi No. 11, he shouldn't have taken being sacked by May so personally.

    But he has earned a gazillion pounds in the private sector.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Might be difficult to assess betting odds here as to how a reasonably normal, intelligent person might react to the candidates, vs a) Tory MPs, b) Tory party members. E.g. the latter, when offered a choice between Ken Clarke and Ian Duncan Smith, chose Smith.... (not exactly electoral dynamite).

    Indeed, the most relevant comments on here are from Tory members or Tory MPs as we are the only ones who get to vote for them
    "Fuck the voters"
    The voters didn't get a say when Labour elected Gordon Brown PM either. We are a parliamentary democracy, we don't have an elected President
    I agree with that point, but I think there is also a point that while the decision of who will be Conservative Party Leader (and as such PM) is up thte Conservative members, and they shouldn't simply delegate their opinion to that of a wider public opinion poll, it might be advisable for them to at least factor in the public appeal of the candidates.

    After all, you want to win the next election, you've talked about trying to keep hold of the red wall, who are not all Tory members, so you accept that the new leader needs to appeal beyond the membership.

    So you're own arguments would be that the ordinary voters should be considered to some degree when the members make their choice - you too may have argued against some candidates on the basis they would lose an election, and what is that but saying listen to ordinary voters?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    MikeL said:

    CROSSOVER!

    RISHI BACK TO SECOND FAVOURITE.

    He might well be favourite by Monday,
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    Penny seems to be taking a backseat in this debate.

    Seems more like a cabinet minister than a PM. Possibly cause she is.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sunak is like Blair.

    But with all his faults, Blair was a much better PM than any recent offering - and I say that as somebody who unusually always despised and distrusted him.

    Blair actually had vision.

    Can someone please tell me what Rishi’s vision is?

    I wonder what he makes of this graph.

    Blair had vision? What was it? I remember an enormous number of cliches - 'Britain forward not back, education, education, education, tough on crime tough on the causes of crime' - but I couldn't tell you what they meant.

    Just as Thatcher's 'vision' was very often her making stuff up as she needed to, with varying degrees of success.

    What they both were - for good or for ill - was decisive, and they had a willingness to listen to others if they knew their stuff and decide accordingly.

    Does Sunak have that? If I'm honest I don't know. But what I can say is that apart possibly from Tugendhat and even more tenuously Badenoch the others are showing they don't have it.
    That’s nonsense.
    There was a clear Blairism “Giddens/third way-ism/reducing child poverty/education reform/devolution” etc, just as there was clear Thatcherism “Hayek/monetarism/privatisation/labour deregulation/home owning democracy”
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Gets worse and worse for Truss

    She's awful.

    Members would be mad to elect her.
    Truss it is then
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Kemi is alright. The tooth story very relatable.

    But, a clear lie

    I broke my tooth 10 months ago. Had to go private. £300 for a 20 minute procedure, done next day

    Kemi B can't afford that?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,191

    This is just wonderful. Sunak is clearly the best of them, but that really doesn’t say much - and if he wins the ERG and the Johnson faithful will go nuclear. Maybe they should start the whole contest again!

    Same time, same place, next year?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,320
    Penny better on the NHS. Sunak didn't answer, he was just bulls****ing... although less so than Truss.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,700
    Penny has improved to some degree as debate has gone on.

    This may be a pointer for future debates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Instead of flouncing George Osborne should have played the long game, he'd be running rings around all of them and he'd probably give Kemi No. 11, he shouldn't have taken being sacked by May so personally.

    Osborne would probably have failed to beat Corbyn and a resurgent Farage
    No, I mean he should have stuck around and waited out Theresa May, then made a play for a big role under Boris then laid in wait for Boris to implode. He'd be far and away the favourite today.
    Osborne would be more unelectable than all of them except Truss
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Penny’s answer on NHS funding completely incoherent.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    Kemi is alright. The tooth story very relatable.

    Not when the cancer referral targets are being missed by miles and people phoning 999 for an ambulance due to a heart attack are waiting five hours for it to arrive.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    Leon said:

    People writing off Penny too quickly

    There are three of these debates. This is merely the first

    Truss is toast but beyond that.... who knows. Rishi's polish shows here, he is is Winchester and Megabank and ex-COTE

    But.... Which one will beat Starmer?

    It is Mordaunt v Sunak, I reckon, and the Tory members will decide, not us

    The Penny problem is that rather uniquely she has been called out on the stand for lying. And its on the dog whistle non-issue of chicks with dicks. She can try and talk around it, but they will keep coming back for it.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Leon said:

    Kemi is alright. The tooth story very relatable.

    But, a clear lie

    I broke my tooth 10 months ago. Had to go private. £300 for a 20 minute procedure, done next day

    Kemi B can't afford that?
    I pay £20 a month for dental insurance on an SSO salary. She has dental insurance, the story is pish.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,650
    stjohn said:

    Biggest loser given her position in the betting is Penny.

    I agree Mike. But she is still clear favourite. Surprising.

    The comments by Moylan and Frost about her work ethic and ability have really undermined her credibility with me. The only recent candidate for UK PM where I remember similar concerns being raised, (although broader and much more serious concerns), was/is called Boris.
    I can't believe that Frost is merely reporting in a disinterested manner given every other comment he's made in public life.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Tug into 44-46 on Betfair!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Might be difficult to assess betting odds here as to how a reasonably normal, intelligent person might react to the candidates, vs a) Tory MPs, b) Tory party members. E.g. the latter, when offered a choice between Ken Clarke and Ian Duncan Smith, chose Smith.... (not exactly electoral dynamite).

    Indeed, the most relevant comments on here are from Tory members or Tory MPs as we are the only ones who get to vote for them
    "Fuck the voters"
    The voters didn't get a say when Labour elected Gordon Brown PM either. We are a parliamentary democracy, we don't have an elected President
    You utterly miss the point. You can select Kareem Abdul-Jabar as lader if you want. But then you have to win the election. And if people keep looking a Mr AJ and instead of seeing an airline pilot as billed see a basketball player, you lose.

    So it isn't about what you lot want. Its about what your party's voters want.

    And this is your problem. You endlessly quote polls. Whilst saying that people who aren't you - especially Tory voters - can literally be ignored.
    Tory voters want Mordaunt

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1547873650899951617?s=20&t=pZZNMt7u0iOQt3hBpLyCSg
    This was before tonight
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Farooq said:

    tlg86 said:

    The audience really ought to be Tory MPs.

    And the venue, a rusted hulk with no engines in the middle of the Pacific.
    Typhoon ahoy!
This discussion has been closed.