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How will the Tory betting look after tonight’s TV debate? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,150
edited July 2022 in General
imageHow will the Tory betting look after tonight’s TV debate? – politicalbetting.com

One of the things about this contest is that all the contenders’ bar Sunak and possibly Truss are relatively unknown to the public so this event will give many of us the first chance to see them. For one of the features of Johnson’s leadership is that apart from the Chancellor few other ministers got a real look in.

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Comments

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    edited July 2022
    Evening all! Are we all sitting comfortably...?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    Come on Kemi!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753
    Betfair next PM

    2.04 Penny Mordaunt 49%
    3.75 Liz Truss 27%
    4.6 Rishi Sunak 22%
    32 Kemi Badenoch
    130 Tom Tugendhat
    130 Dominic Raab

    Betfair to make the final two

    1.27 Rishi Sunak 79%
    1.43 Penny Mordaunt 70%
    2.16 Liz Truss 46%
    16.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
    60 Tom Tugendhat
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    edited July 2022
    I doubt the debate will make much difference, Mordaunt will still be the 'Stop Rishi' candidate for Boris loyalists and the 'Stop Truss' candidate for Tory moderates. If she wins it will be mainly because of who she wasn't as has been the case for all Tory leaders elected since Thatcher except Cameron in 2005 and Boris in 2019 rather than who she is
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Fair question, OGH.

    It's arguably the first real opportunity the candidates have to talk to a wider audience though how many will be watching on a lovely summer's evening is debatable.

    None of them have really explained what the stand for and how radically different they would be - Johnson was able to successfully re-invent the Conservative Party in 2019 in such a way as it sometimes seemed he was in opposition to his own Government.

    That won't wash this time even if those with fewer associations to Johnson get the top job.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Evening all! Are we all sitting comfortably...?

    I can't move for popcorn boxes but otherwise, yes, very comfortable.

    I have a cheeky Cotes du Rhone 2020 to help cope.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Is tonight's debate available via the web? Presume it will be up on YouTube shortly after it's over?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Excited for the whopper debate
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Farooq said:

    "HOW WILL THE TORY BETTING LOOK AFTER TONIGHT’S TV DEBATE?"

    Bleak. One of these idiots will be favourite.

    But will the same idiot be favourite?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt the debate will make much difference, Mordaunt will still be the 'Stop Rishi' candidate for Boris loyalists and the 'Stop Truss' candidate for Tory moderates. If she wins it will be mainly because of who she wasn't as has been the case for all Tory leaders elected since Thatcher except Cameron in 2005 and Boris in 2019 rather than who she is

    Good evening

    I expect that this will have a huge influence on the outcome
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt the debate will make much difference, Mordaunt will still be the 'Stop Rishi' candidate for Boris loyalists and the 'Stop Truss' candidate for Tory moderates. If she wins it will be mainly because of who she wasn't as has been the case for all Tory leaders elected since Thatcher except Cameron in 2005 and Boris in 2019 rather than who she is

    You are probably right but just occasionally debates can make a difference. Nick Clegg; David Davis.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Is it a wise move for a candidate to moan and whine about the "black ops" and "dark arts"?

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    I want to make lots of money.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Is tonight's debate available via the web? Presume it will be up on YouTube shortly after it's over?

    It's on Channel 4 but I'm not sure if they allow streaming to the US.

    https://www.channel4.com/now/C4
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    rottenborough said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Evening all! Are we all sitting comfortably...?

    I can't move for popcorn boxes but otherwise, yes, very comfortable.

    I have a cheeky Cotes du Rhone 2020 to help cope.

    Yes I may have to have a light ale later. Have to work out where I am going filming tomorrow as I have a day pass. Looks annoyingly cloudy though :(
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    Penny is taller than Rishi.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Krishnan was at my college when I was there. He's put on a fair bit of weight.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Is tonight's debate available via the web? Presume it will be up on YouTube shortly after it's over?

    The earlier one is on Youtube now.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75csDVDXvuw

    The Channel 4 debate can be downstreamed from channel4.com but I expect it is geo-restricted.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    No tie for Dishy
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I’m in the Opinium panel that is going to cover this debate.

    I can declare that Kemi and Liz have lost tonight’s debate.

    You could at least ask our opinion before filling it in?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Is tonight's debate available via the web? Presume it will be up on YouTube shortly after it's over?

    The earlier one is on Youtube now.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75csDVDXvuw

    The Channel 4 debate can be downstreamed from channel4.com but I expect it is geo-restricted.
    I can recommend Express VPN if someone needs to get around \ geo block
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753
    tlg86 said:

    Penny is taller than Rishi.

    It's all muscle. Or was that Boris?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Here we go ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    Truss has her Thatcher outfit on
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Lined up like that, the lack of true big beast depth in the Tory party is utterly stark.

    Can't entirely be Johnson's fault but at lot is.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    williamglenn said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Is tonight's debate available via the web? Presume it will be up on YouTube shortly after it's over?

    It's on Channel 4 but I'm not sure if they allow streaming to the US.

    https://www.channel4.com/now/C4
    Thanks! Does NOT seem to like my postal code . . .

    Probably more fun to see debate though PBer eyes!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Good opening pitch from Tom Tit
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Truss looks and sounds like a fish that is flapping breathlessly on the river bank.

    TV is brutal.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    rottenborough said:

    Lined up like that, the lack of true big beast depth in the Tory party is utterly stark.

    Can't entirely be Johnson's fault but at lot is.

    She's bloody awful.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    rottenborough said:

    Lined up like that, the lack of true big beast depth in the Tory party is utterly stark.

    Can't entirely be Johnson's fault but at lot is.

    Sunak towers over the rest of them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753
    rottenborough said:

    Lined up like that, the lack of true big beast depth in the Tory party is utterly stark.

    Can't entirely be Johnson's fault but at lot is.

    Boris purged a lot of big beasts by stopping them standing in 2019, and left others on the backbenches when filling his Cabinet.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    IanB2 said:

    Good opening pitch from Tom Tit

    I think my Sky Go feed is a minute or so behind.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    Tuggy is the John Major candidate. And I respected John Major.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,569
    Dodgy stream from channel 4.

    Where's Rishi tie gone? West Wing type incident?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    Tom Tugenhadt excellent on the trust question . Truss , oh dear !
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    My god Truss is bad
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    It's between

    Mordant
    Sunk
    Trust
    Tit
    Mike
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Sunak nicks Javid's line about benefit of doubt
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Rishi: “I resigned and Liz didnt”…
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753
    Rishi's pinched The Saj's benefit of the doubt line.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    Eabhal said:

    Dodgy stream from channel 4.

    Where's Rishi tie gone? West Wing type incident?

    Could be worse. He could have started with it on, then taken it off part way through. Like Rory Stewart.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    I absolutely hate that stupid thumb point. No normal person does that.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    Tom T very good. Also Rishi
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Don’t mind which of them wins, so long as it’s not Truss.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753
    Eabhal said:

    Dodgy stream from channel 4.

    Where's Rishi tie gone? West Wing type incident?

    Stream fine here after a dodgy first few seconds.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    Leon said:

    My god Truss is bad

    Truss is shocking
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Kemi sounds a lot posher than I expected
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    edited July 2022
    Is anyone looking at Liz Truss and thinking: “yeah. You know what. That one there. You’re looking at a Prime Minister”?!

    She’s awful.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Gallowgate said:

    Kemi sounds a lot posher than I expected

    Being a former wealth manager at Coutts, it was surely required?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    Kemi good , TT excellent , Sunak okay ,Truss crap , Mordaunt good.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Leon said:

    My god Truss is bad

    Truss is shocking
    So who did we think this benefits? ERG lot thinking they need to switch horses? If so, to whom?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Leon said:

    My god Truss is bad

    Yet she’s in your corner
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    IanB2 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Kemi sounds a lot posher than I expected

    Being a former wealth manager at Coutts, it was surely required?
    As a mere mortal I have no idea what wealth managers at Coutts are like :D
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    MrEd said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Leon said:

    My god Truss is bad

    Truss is shocking
    So who did we think this benefits? ERG lot thinking they need to switch horses? If so, to whom?
    Anyone but her
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    PM blows it away as soon as she starts imho.

    I will be surprised if the live focus groups aren't hitting the + buttons right now.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Liz looks like she hasn’t slept well for a fortnight
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    Liz Truss looks really tired.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Penny is good but a bit wooden, I'll take boring over weird and crazy any day. Go Penny!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    I think Kemi is the best dressed.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,701
    Forget all policies, all opinions - Truss is totally incredible as a potential PM.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Badenoch best
    Penny next
    Sunak

    Truss and tugendhat ridiculous
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Truss cannot win this if tory members are actually watching this.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Rishi: “whoever wins tonight, we’ll all be better off”. :)
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MrEd said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Leon said:

    My god Truss is bad

    Truss is shocking
    So who did we think this benefits? ERG lot thinking they need to switch horses? If so, to whom?
    Anyone but her
    She looks like they have wheeled her out from the waxworks.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Christ alive the Penny hate is reaching red alert levels

    Daniel Moylan says that when Penny Mordaunt was hired to be Head of Communications for Kensington and Chelsea Council he had to fire her because “she was incompetent… she couldn’t do the job”.

    https://order-order.com/2022/07/15/mordaunts-former-boss-says-he-sacked-her-for-incompetence/

    Moylan isn't best placed to opine on this topic, but from her track record, Mordaunt does appear genuinely to be incompetent. However ...

    a. She isn't more incompetent than the others - with the possible exception of Liz Truss who could be competent if she weren't captured by the Cult and also if she spent more effort on doing things and less on self-promotion.

    b. Mordaunt is personable. This vote is decided by people who are looking for someone who might win an election for the Conservatives, rather than someone who can run the country. Suboptimal but them's the breaks, as someone - forget who - said just recently
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    Seriously, the Borisites have decided that Truss is the best of them all?

    Says a lot.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Penny looking a bit silly not being prepared to say she trusts her opponents.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    tlg86 said:

    I think Kemi is the best dressed.

    In LibDem yellow? Let’s hope we get no unwelcome gestures
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    Good from Kemi getting her word in there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    My god Truss is bad

    Yet she’s in your corner
    She’s a fucking Remainer. She’s one of yours
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,321
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think Kemi is the best dressed.

    In LibDem yellow? Let’s hope we get no unwelcome gestures
    Is she wearing sandals?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    Kemi gives consistently superb and intelligent answers to every question. And very human ones too.

    Brilliant.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    stjohn said:

    Penny looking a bit silly not being prepared to say she trusts her opponents.

    Seems like an honest answer!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,321
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    My god Truss is bad

    Yet she’s in your corner
    She’s a fucking Remainer. She’s one of yours
    I would steer clear of that aspect...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    My god Truss is bad

    Yet she’s in your corner
    She’s a fucking Remainer. She’s one of yours
    She’s whatever you want her to be. A woman right down your rather crooked street, I’d suggest?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Truss going down by being tied to Johnson.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    Gets worse and worse for Truss
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,968
    I am watching the debate. Sunak coming across best, but no flops and no stand-outs so far. Truss weakest.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Tom probably appeals to floating voters more.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498
    Gallowgate said:

    I absolutely hate that stupid thumb point. No normal person does that.

    It makes Sunak look like a robot running Politician OS 3.1.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    edited July 2022
    Q: Is Boris Johnson honest?
    TT: No
    First spontaneous round of applause
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    ThomasNashe said:

    Truss going down by being tied to Johnson.

    Absolutely
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think Kemi is the best dressed.

    In LibDem yellow? Let’s hope we get no unwelcome gestures
    Oddly, that never occurred to me. Yellow is a good colour as it stands out. If I had my way, then Arsenal's away kit would always be yellow.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,569
    I think Starmer would win this debate, if he were there. They are all horribly stilted (maybe the format?)
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Casino_Royale said:

    Kemi gives consistently superb and intelligent answers to every question. And very human ones too.

    Brilliant.

    She's doing well so far Casino. But that's over egging what we've seen!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243
    Sorry Liz is like a thick version of El Gord
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    Rishi poor. Like a 6th form schoolboy doing a nervous Blair impression.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,569
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think Kemi is the best dressed.

    In LibDem yellow? Let’s hope we get no unwelcome gestures
    Oddly, that never occurred to me. Yellow is a good colour as it stands out. If I had my way, then Arsenal's away kit would always be yellow.
    May wore yellow as she became Prime Minister, iirc.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Q: Is Boris Johnson honest?
    TT: No
    First spontaneous round of applause

    Has he lost HYUFD with that answer?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Sunak the only adult in the room!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    SandyRentool said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Q: Is Boris Johnson honest?
    TT: No
    First spontaneous round of applause

    Has he lost HYUFD with that answer?
    *giggles*
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    To be fair, Penny Mordaunt does seem to be growing into this a little bit. She's ok.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,958
    So far anyone but Truss
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,569
    Eabhal said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think Kemi is the best dressed.

    In LibDem yellow? Let’s hope we get no unwelcome gestures
    Oddly, that never occurred to me. Yellow is a good colour as it stands out. If I had my way, then Arsenal's away kit would always be yellow.
    May wore yellow as she became Prime Minister, iirc.
    And the CLEGGASM had a yellow tie.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,191
    rottenborough said:

    Truss cannot win this if tory members are actually watching this.

    It's Channel 4. Most of them hate Channel 4.

    Best summary so far;

    Liz is Boris without the shits & giggles #C4LeaderDebate

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1548013339204149256
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Penny is the most robotic of them all. Wishy washy af. Don’t trust anything she says. Vacuous.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Devastating critique of the clown from Kemi,

    No jobs for JRM or Dorries under her!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    Really warming to Kemi .

    Haven’t seen much of her before .
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,886
    Q: How would you deliver a clean break from Boris Johnson?
    PM: Deliver the Boris manifesto

    She's shit. Mega mis-step with her Boris trust answer too.
This discussion has been closed.