The confidence vote takes place tonight – politicalbetting.com

I reckon he loses. Tory MPs must know the game is up, surely?

I hope that Johnson is kicked out today. That may mean a far less toxic Tory leader and less chance of Labour winning, but you cannot want the best for this country and want him to remain in charge. It's that simple.

But I suspect he wins. I so want to be wrong, though.

Strong theme coming through is that many Tory MPs feel PM is dragging the Conservative Party down and destroying its reputation as well as their own. They cite his “character” and “lack of integrity” as the problem and don’t think that’s going to change #Tories
https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1533713847118446598

For some reason I'm reminded of when Perdiccas had Meleager's followers trampled to death by elephants.

Fourth century BC Macedonian leadership elections were simply wild.

Carnyx said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

I reckon he loses. Tory MPs must know the game is up, surely?

All No 10 has to do is to send around photos of Mr R-M, Ms Dorries, Ms Patel, etc. etc. with no comment.

Yes, but who put them in the Cabinet?

OnlyLivingBoy said:

I reckon he loses. Tory MPs must know the game is up, surely?

I think he will as well. With no clear cut replacement now Sunak has issues every Tory MP can vote for their own unicorn leader and policy..

That wasn't true earlier this year where there would have been an incentive for none Sunak supporters to keep Bozo in place.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gamblers and PBers of longstanding, OGH is on holiday in Europe at the moment.

So nothing happening of note?

Never forget Rees-Mogg and Raab both said a leader who wins a vote of confidence should still resign if a lot vote against them.

If Boris wins I want to see how they squirm around that. They will, but I want to see it.

williamglenn said:

@trussliz
The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

We must now focus on economic growth.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

....whilst installing the phone lines....

williamglenn said:

@trussliz
The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

We must now focus on economic growth.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

... by supporting the ballot paper-printing industry.

I doubt 180 Tory MPs want to vote for Johnson.

His chance of survival is in the fact that there’s no one else obvious to vote for - so a VONC might effectively be a vote for Truss or some other wingbat. It would be a leap into the unknown.

Always keep ahold of nurse / For fear of finding something worse…

Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

"One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

MaxPB said:

Come on Tory MPs, let's get this over and done with. Whoever comes next simply can't be worse than the Boris.

I fear that we cannot trust the tory membership not to elect someone who is worse frankly.

Much as I want Johnson gone the lack of an obvious, decent, quality heir apparent makes me worry we are looking at another Clarke vs IDS feck up.

“Jacob Rees-Mogg, who led calls for the Tory confidence vote, said losing the support of a third of her MPs was a "terrible result for the Prime Minister" & called on her to resign”

A reminder to Jacob Rees-Mogg about the resignation threshold he set for Theresa May in Dec 2018.
https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1533714685840789505

bigjohnowls said:

I hope he wins.

I think it could be close.

May won, what, 60-40, when the most divisive policy in a generation was tearing them apart? Boris really should be able to at least match that.

I'm going 70-30.

Ironic that, at the end of the Platinum Jubilee, the Conservatives might finish off the Queen's 16th Prime Minister. Ahem, 14th, think I must've miscounted.

My ideal is a relatively safe pair of hands able to govern effectively and take the Conservatives gracefully into the spell in opposition that they desperately need. Hunt fits the bill. The defence secretary is another.

The worst case is lurching to an extreme or electing an ego trip merchant. Patel, Mogg or Truss. The damage they would do to the country would be immense.

Morris_Dancer said:

Ironic that, at the end of the Platinum Jubilee, the Conservatives might finish off the Queen's 16th Prime Minister.

Perfect end to the celebrations, as I said last night

Northern_Al said:

kle4 said:

The Norman resignation is definitely more interesting than most, for laying out a variety of policy reasons behind it as well well as personal. Not just one but several, and quite bullish about endangering the union, trying to be presidential etc.

Its interesting as I've no real idea how the party might change under a different leader, andche gives hints of what he at least wants besides
just Boris gone.

Jesse Norman's savaging of current government policies is more withering and effective than anything Labour has come up with.
Sadly.

A case of the Conservative Party providing both Government and Opposition....

Morris_Dancer said:

For some reason I'm reminded of when Perdiccas had Meleager's followers trampled to death by elephants.

Fourth century BC Macedonian leadership elections were simply wild.

For some reason*, I'm not.

(*Mainly because I have never heard of Perdiccas or Meleager; I have heard of elephants though. 😉)

Heathener said:

Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

"One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

Now that the vote is on I can't think of a reason they would keep him. Even Brexit can't keep his Praetorian Guard from the door.

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

@trussliz
The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

We must now focus on economic growth.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

Translation: my team are busy buying up more smartphones and registering 'Liz4leader' type URLs as we speak.

This hasn't been reactivated - but it's being kept warm.

https://twitter.com/trussforleader

Any odds on how long his marriage will last if he goes or is that tasteless?

Mr. Pointer, Perdiccas was the most powerful man in the world.

Briefly.

If Tory MPs do not vote to remove Johnson today they irrevocably tie the party to the man. They will be telling the electorate that Johnson is the Conservative party. The electorate is unlikely to be impressed.

I think he wins it and he leads his party into the next GE.

Throughout this I have always thought that his fate will be decided on the biggest stage at a GE. The 'He is a Winner' title being absolutely destroyed by an electorate that takes its opportunity to punish him and his party.

kle4 said:

The Norman resignation is definitely more interesting than most, for laying out a variety of policy reasons behind it as well well as personal. Not just one but several, and quite bullish about endangering the union, trying to be presidential etc.

Its interesting as I've no real idea how the party might change under a different leader, andche gives hints of what he at least wants besides
just Boris gone.

Norman who?



(Morning all)

kle4 said:

bigjohnowls said:

I hope he wins.

I think it could be close.

May won, what, 60-40, when the most divisive policy in a generation was tearing them apart? Boris really should be able to at least match that.

I'm going 70-30.

I'm not sure comparisons with Theresa May's VONC are as relevant as they first appear.

FPT but after the end of it, and on topic:

Theresa May had not just the payroll vote, but she had people who likely didn't have any confidence in her voting to support her because they didn't want Boris or someone from the ERG to replace her. Most of the Tory MPs in the 2017 Parliament had voted Remain and weren't supporting an ERG-inspired putsch.

I'm not sure if that factor is there for Boris. If the objection is now personal rather than political divisions, then it becomes much less of a fear of who'd replace him.

williamglenn said:

@trussliz
The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

We must now focus on economic growth.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

Shame it's a secret ballot...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gamblers and PBers of longstanding, OGH is on holiday in Europe at the moment.

Thst Boris let that happen at a critical juncture is just further evidence of incompetence. Who was on Smithson watch?

Benpointer said:

williamglenn said:

@trussliz
The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

We must now focus on economic growth.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

She's going to look pretty silly if Johnson loses 359-0.

[deleted - duff source]/

...One would expect the result to be 358-1 for obvious reasons (ie the Member for Uxbridge would support the PM).

Leon said:

See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

When you are really angry at something and a figurehead is changed does it mollify you? Targets switch.

Benpointer said:

Heathener said:

Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

"One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

I've just seen the snippet that Johnson was booed at Morito.

I've been there, it's very good, but definitely a hangout of the liberal well-to-do. What possessed him to think of eating there? He was bound to come a cropper.

Did they refuse his credit card or something?

rkrkrk said:

Well I called this one wrong.
Didn't think we would have a VoNC.

Still feel like Johnson survives, but am less certain.

Odds of us getting someone better than Johnson, I would guess at 75%+.

Probably the only people worse would be JRM, Priti Patel...? I suppose there are a few national security risks who would be worse too.

JRM and Patel have nil chance so I wouldn't worry. Many are concerned about Truss (maybe a tad unfairly) and I expect MPs to organise so that she isn't in the final two. My best guess, still, is Hunt and Wallace.

Leon said:

See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

Given those calling for him to go include many Tory MPs who were strongly in favour of Brexit your post isn’t backed by facts just more of your unhinged nonsense .

It's just amazing how little the Tories learned from Labour's Corbyn years. The idea that the electorate will shrug its shoulders and forget that it detests Johnson because he has won a leadership vote of confidence is for the fairies.

SouthamObserver said:

It's just amazing how little the Tories learned from Labour's Corbyn years. The idea that the electorate will shrug its shoulders and forget that it detests Johnson because he has won a leadership vote of confidence is for the fairies.

People seem to think a) the public dislike divided parties b) if we stop yelling at each other the public will forget how much we are divided.

Leon said:

See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

This is a wanky argument even for you. Is Brexit Hard Man Steve Baker a remoaner? There are stacks of leave MPs openly against him.

Silly boy.

Benpointer said:

Heathener said:

Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

"One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

I've just seen the snippet that Johnson was booed at Morito.

I assume they mean Moro (Morito is the tapas bar offshoot). I've eaten there, it's very good, but definitely a hangout of the liberal well-to-do. What possessed him to think of eating there? He was bound to come a cropper.

Just one of Johnson's many hypocrisies is to profess to despise what he actually is.

Farooq said:

Leon said:

See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

Yes yes yes, whatever you need to say, whomever you need to blame to justify your support for Boris. We get it. It's not you, it's us. Thoughts and prayers for you at this difficult time. You'll get through it.

WHuh? Boris did what I wanted him to do: he won the Brexit referendum, he won the Brexit election, he saw off the mad 2nd vote treason, he crushed Corbyn and saved the Labour Party from itself.

He was also damn good on vaccines and excellent on Ukraine

But he’s not cut out for the duller plod of day to day PM-ing, he has no strategic vision, and he’s also a bare-faced liar and a total chancer, and after a while that becomes too much

He did what he was sent to this earth to do, as a politician. His time is up. That is all

I have not had some Damascene conversion. Boris did a good and necessary job for the UK. But now we need a reset

Stereodog said:

Seeing a lot of comments about how not having an obvious alternative leader makes a successful VONC less likely. I'd have thought the opposite because every faction thinks they might have a shot at the big time if Boris goes.

Yep - everyone can currently see a path in which the Tory party supports all their personal unicorn policies.

That wasn't the case back in January when Rishi was the odds on favourite.

Sadly the end membership electorate will vote for the more right wing loonier candidate.

Stocky said:

Leon said:

See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

I think the desire to get rid of Boris comes from all sides of the party.

Sure. But the frothiest rage and fiercest glee can be found at Remoaner Central

Carnyx said:

Benpointer said:

Heathener said:

Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

"One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

I've just seen the snippet that Johnson was booed at Morito.

I've been there, it's very good, but definitely a hangout of the liberal well-to-do. What possessed him to think of eating there? He was bound to come a cropper.

Did they refuse his credit card or something?

Don't be silly, Johnson doesn't actually pay for anything.

Being circulated to MPs in support of Boris:

https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1533713550929276928

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

@trussliz
The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

We must now focus on economic growth.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

Shame it's a secret ballot...

Quite the opposite. It gives ministers the chance to be loyal on the radio yet dish the clown what he deserves in the ballot.