Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before. Was asked if the PM would win the vote? He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question. Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossible
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.
The reason they did better in Aberdeenshire is because they put up the correct number of candidates in the large STV wards. Nothing to do with BJ being less unpopular there. Everything to do with local incompetence at the previous council elections.
Quite. In 2017 we voted 40% Conservative first choice. This year is was 34%.
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
Yep I think this is a very dangerous moment for the Conservatives. If the MPs don't have the courage to remove him then I think we are going to see 2 x disastrous by-elections AND a crushing defeat at the General Election.
So they have this one chance, today, to save the party from a huge and deserved defeat, followed by a decade out of power.
I still think they will go like the Gadarene swine over the precipice. And we will look back and tell them they only have themselves to blame.
The Tories removed Thatcher in 1990, scraped a win in 1992 and then lost by a landslide in 1997 and were out of power for over a decade.
Boris is the Tories greatest general election winner since Thatcher. Had the Tories kept Thatcher she might also have scraped a win in 1992 or narrowly lost and Heseltine or Major then beaten PM Kinnock in 1997, rather than the party facing slaughter in 1997
Hahaha, John Major got the Tories more votes in 1992 than any other party in the entire history of British politics, before OR SINCE. More than Johnson, More than Blair. More than Thatcher or Callaghan or Atlee or Churchill.
He also led the Tories to their worst events defeat in 1997 since 1832. Worse than Balfour in 1906, worse than Churchill in 1945, worse than Heath in 1966 and worse than Hague I 2001 and Howard in 2005.
Had Thatcher lost in 1992 the Tories might even have beaten PM Kinnock in 1992, perhaps even under Leader of the Opposition Major. Arguably it was better longer term for the Tories to lose in 1992 than win. Major's win in 1992 in any case was more a vote against Kinnock than for him. Starmer does not have the same antagonism from middle England Kinnock or Corbyn did even if he does not have the appeal with them Blair did either
The lesson from your own point may be that a big defeat can follow a big win- particularly when tactical voting resurfaces.
So. What's the call then? I think he's gone. Why? No positive reason to vote for him. It's all negatives. And vaccine rollout (in the past). No one has put forward a single argument about anything at all good to come in the future. It's fear. So gone. I have no great confidence in this.
No he wins. 170 unemployables are on the payroll (amazingly enough). Add in the dozen or so Bullingdon Boys who think making Nadine Dorries Culture Secretary was the funniest prank of all time and he's over the line.
That ain't true though. 170 yes. At least 120 must look at JRM, Dorries and Braverman close up and wonder why they are not in their place.
Just been through the list of Tory MPs and got 132 MPs who are likely to vote against Johnson. My personal assessment. Could be wrong.
The known unknown is the abstention rate. Many MPs will be in their constituencies still, and there is a tube strike. In theory they can arrange proxies but why bother if you are undecided?
I think we may actually end up in a situation where votes for are much lower than pledges to vote for and Boris will lose on that basis. My best guess atm is 120-150 in favour and the rest against but heading into the vote we'll have somewhere around 160-180 declared in favour.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.
Given the return to the old way of calling an election - could Boris call one tomorrow for the Lols and what stops him doing so?
Wouldn't he have to first lose a confidence vote in Parliament?
I don't think so - it used to be the PM's prerogative so if the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been revoked surely it's his choice again - No Commons vote required...
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Didn't work very well last time, the due d., did it?
Just been through the list of Tory MPs and got 132 MPs who are likely to vote against Johnson. My personal assessment. Could be wrong.
Be interesting to hear Alastair Meeks thoughts. He's usually pretty accurate. A great shame he no longer posts here. Another one lost at the alter of Leon/SeanT
JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.
Given the return to the old way of calling an election - could Boris call one tomorrow for the Lols and what stops him doing so?
Wouldn't he have to first lose a confidence vote in Parliament?
I don't think so - it used to be the PM's prerogative so if the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been revoked surely it's his choice again - No Commons vote required...
Yes that's right. In theory HMQ could deny him the dissolution but of course she wouldn't.
JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
This really is so far down the hogwash that it is bound to have the absolutely opposite effect.
A new PM is under zero obligation to call a General Election.
Does JRM think everyone is stupid or what? Where do they get this crap?
As JRM is someone who was transported straight from the 1840s, anything that happened within living memory is therefore the work of witchcraft and should be ignored.
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
Yep I think this is a very dangerous moment for the Conservatives. If the MPs don't have the courage to remove him then I think we are going to see 2 x disastrous by-elections AND a crushing defeat at the General Election.
So they have this one chance, today, to save the party from a huge and deserved defeat, followed by a decade out of power.
I still think they will go like the Gadarene swine over the precipice. And we will look back and tell them they only have themselves to blame.
The Tories removed Thatcher in 1990, scraped a win in 1992 and then lost by a landslide in 1997 and were out of power for over a decade.
Boris is the Tories greatest general election winner since Thatcher. Had the Tories kept Thatcher she might also have scraped a win in 1992 or narrowly lost and Heseltine or Major then beaten PM Kinnock in 1997, rather than the party facing slaughter in 1997
Hahaha, John Major got the Tories more votes in 1992 than any other party in the entire history of British politics, before OR SINCE. More than Johnson, More than Blair. More than Thatcher or Callaghan or Atlee or Churchill.
He also led the Tories to their worst events defeat in 1997 since 1832. Worse than Balfour in 1906, worse than Churchill in 1945, worse than Heath in 1966 and worse than Hague I 2001 and Howard in 2005.
Had Thatcher lost in 1992 the Tories might even have beaten PM Kinnock in 1997, perhaps even under Leader of the Opposition Major. Arguably it was better longer term for the Tories to lose in 1992 than win. Major's win in 1992 in any case was more a vote against Kinnock than for him (hence even a less popular Thatcher might still also narrowly have beaten Kinnock in 1992). Starmer does not have the same antagonism from middle England Kinnock or Corbyn did even if he does not have the appeal with them Blair did either
Do you consider winning elections the only criteria that is important? I assume if you were Russian you would support Putin, after all, though he is a psychopath and murders women and children he is very popular!
Is this the moronic dumbed down mentality that pervades the modern Tory Party? Boris Johnson won an election against a leader that was unique in being even more unsuitable than Boris Johnson. Both were/are lazy, dishonest and incompetent. Corbyn is history. It is time Johnson is too.
JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
This really is so far down the hogwash that it is bound to have the absolutely opposite effect.
A new PM is under zero obligation to call a General Election.
Does JRM think everyone is stupid or what? Where do they get this crap?
I completely agree with you on this. If this is true then it is massively counter productive. It shows what contempt the top team in the Blues has for its MPs.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well and tougher on immigration and ideally less carbon net zero obsessed.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
I don’t think they’ll choose Mordaunt. Not enough experience. In these circumstances the pre-requisite is usually having served in a great office of state (though conventions are made to be broken I suppose).
If there is one person who could do it despite never serving in a great office I think it would be Wallace above Mordaunt. But if we do get a contest it is tricky to see how it goes.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Look at the ideological gaps between the Zac Goldsmiths and the Steve Bakers and tell me there's a single candidate that can unify the tories.
It is an impossible task and the party seems certain to split, if not shatter, over absolutely fundamental disagreements over where Britain should be heading.
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
Yep I think this is a very dangerous moment for the Conservatives. If the MPs don't have the courage to remove him then I think we are going to see 2 x disastrous by-elections AND a crushing defeat at the General Election.
So they have this one chance, today, to save the party from a huge and deserved defeat, followed by a decade out of power.
I still think they will go like the Gadarene swine over the precipice. And we will look back and tell them they only have themselves to blame.
The Tories removed Thatcher in 1990, scraped a win in 1992 and then lost by a landslide in 1997 and were out of power for over a decade.
Boris is the Tories greatest general election winner since Thatcher. Had the Tories kept Thatcher she might also have scraped a win in 1992 or narrowly lost and Heseltine or Major then beaten PM Kinnock in 1997, rather than the party facing slaughter in 1997
Hahaha, John Major got the Tories more votes in 1992 than any other party in the entire history of British politics, before OR SINCE. More than Johnson, More than Blair. More than Thatcher or Callaghan or Atlee or Churchill.
He also led the Tories to their worst events defeat in 1997 since 1832. Worse than Balfour in 1906, worse than Churchill in 1945, worse than Heath in 1966 and worse than Hague I 2001 and Howard in 2005.
Had Thatcher lost in 1992 the Tories might even have beaten PM Kinnock in 1997, perhaps even under Leader of the Opposition Major. Arguably it was better longer term for the Tories to lose in 1992 than win. Major's win in 1992 in any case was more a vote against Kinnock than for him (hence even a less popular Thatcher might still also narrowly have beaten Kinnock in 1992). Starmer does not have the same antagonism from middle England Kinnock or Corbyn did even if he does not have the appeal with them Blair did either
Do you consider winning elections the only criteria that is important? I assume if you were Russian you would support Putin, after all, though he is a psychopath and murders women and children he is very popular!
Is this the moronic dumbed down mentality that pervades the modern Tory Party? Boris Johnson won an election against a leader that was unique in being even more unsuitable than Boris Johnson. Both were/are lazy, dishonest and incompetent. Corbyn is history. It is time Johnson is too.
The Conservative Party lost in 1997 because of the behaviour of the parliamentary party. Major was an asset - he was more popular than the party.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Does she have a gritty working class background? One of her ancestors was involved in a famous Victorian divorce case involving the Prince of Wales.
@MarqueeMark Do you know that there is already an informal campaign group of MPs for Mordaunt yet and if so is it likely to have the numbers to defeat other candidates?
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Look at the ideological gaps between the Zac Goldsmiths and the Steve Bakers and tell me there's a single candidate that can unify the tories.
It is an impossible task and the party seems certain to split, if not shatter, over absolutely fundamental disagreements over where Britain should be heading.
They got through 2019 without disintegrating. They will get through a new leader. Remember the purpose of the Tory Party at the moment is to sustain itself in government. It will try and do the necessary, or fail, go into opposition and have an almighty battle at that point.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Does she have a gritty working class background? One of her ancestors was involved in a famous Victorian divorce case involving the Prince of Wales.
If key No.10 / government figures really didn’t expect there to be a NCV, then that absolutely plays into the long held view that they are significantly out of tune with MPs.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
The swivel-eyed membership might not get a vote. I hope they don't as they don't deserve it. Alternatively, you might well be wrong on this as you are on so many things. After all, if ConHome is correct you are in a tiny minority of apologists for The Clown. The second favourite at the moment is a remain voting ex-LibDem monarchy-sceptic. She does exhibit unabashed narcissism, which is a bit of a concern, but she isn't exactly the right winger you think is inevitable.
He will be IDS on quaaludes. So dull. And not smart
If they elect Ben Wallace it means they are accepting defeat in 2024 and they just want a quiet life in Opposition for ten years
Yet Wallace has a higher net approval rating with the public in polls than Patel, Hunt, Gove, Raab, Truss, Sunak and all other main leadership candidates.
Thatcher was replaced with the dull Major, if Boris goes I certainly would not rule out him being replaced by the dull, safe pair of hands Wallace. Indeed as a Tory member I would vote for Wallace if he stands and Boris goes.
IDS also polled better than Hague don't forget and no worse than Howard did in 2005
Just been through the list of Tory MPs and got 132 MPs who are likely to vote against Johnson. My personal assessment. Could be wrong.
Be interesting to hear Alastair Meeks thoughts. He's usually pretty accurate. A great shame he no longer posts here. Another one lost at the alter of Leon/SeanT
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well and tougher on immigration and ideally less carbon net zero obsessed.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
But Johnson is being sacked today because he has messed up Brexit - it’s too hard and business want it watered down. that’s the truth underlying all this isn’t it, Tories have no choice now but to install a government to give business the changes they want to Brexit, in order to ever win again?
- Of the last five Tory PMs, four have faced either a VoNC from their Party or a leadership challenge (Thatcher, Major, May, Johnson. The exception is Cameron). This goes back nearly half a century. - All three of the four whose result we know won a majority of Tory MPs. Nevertheless, one resigned promptly, a second within months, and the third would have resigned if he'd got just a little less.
Which means that we should always expect an eventual VoNC in Tory PMs sooner or later, and we should expect them to win a majority, but to seriously consider resigning anyway.
However, with Johnson, that latter bit may well not apply because he's shameless
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Yes, not often I agree with you politically, but I think I'm with you in seeing her as my favoured candidate. My only reservations are the worry that perhaps to some extent I favour her partly because she hasn't had the experience or prominence yet to do or say things that annoy me; or that I am filling in the gaps in my understanding of her with hope.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Look at the ideological gaps between the Zac Goldsmiths and the Steve Bakers and tell me there's a single candidate that can unify the tories.
It is an impossible task and the party seems certain to split, if not shatter, over absolutely fundamental disagreements over where Britain should be heading.
They got through 2019 without disintegrating. They will get through a new leader. Remember the purpose of the Tory Party at the moment is to sustain itself in government. It will try and do the necessary, or fail, go into opposition and have an almighty battle at that point.
If Boris wins tonight and by-election losses are priced in, there is still the Privileges Committee to come.
This, surely, is the point. There is just bad news to follow, over and over. Boris "winning" the confidence vote does not mean closure. Quite the opposite.
JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.
Given the return to the old way of calling an election - could Boris call one tomorrow for the Lols and what stops him doing so?
Wouldn't he have to first lose a confidence vote in Parliament?
I don't think so - it used to be the PM's prerogative so if the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been revoked surely it's his choice again - No Commons vote required...
Yes that's right. In theory HMQ could deny him the dissolution but of course she wouldn't.
She could ask him if someone else could command the confidence of the House - I’m sure the Tories could rustle up an interim PM while they carried out a leadership election. Then depending on how suicidal the Johnson loyalists are, there might be no need for a GE.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Does she have a gritty working class background? One of her ancestors was involved in a famous Victorian divorce case involving the Prince of Wales.
Daughter of a para. Went to a Comp. Mum died when she was 15 and she effectively brought up her brother. Paid her own way through sixth form. She's got big-time military credentials, serves in the TA. Added advantage of not going to Oxford - which is starting to wear very thin with the electorate.
Also has Labour relatives.
She's very dangerous news. If she were elected then I reckon the Conservatives can win the next General Election.
Fortunately I believe the current tory MPs are hellbent on self-destruction. They seem to prefer evisceration and a decade out of power.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Does she have a gritty working class background? One of her ancestors was involved in a famous Victorian divorce case involving the Prince of Wales.
Another was the first Labour C of the E.
So scratch the royalists and the socialist-haters when the membership come to vote.
If Boris wins tonight and by-election losses are priced in, there is still the Privileges Committee to come.
This, surely, is the point. There is just bad news to follow, over and over. Boris "winning" the confidence vote does not mean closure. Quite the opposite.
Remember this please when @Leon champions Boris tonight.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Does she have a gritty working class background? One of her ancestors was involved in a famous Victorian divorce case involving the Prince of Wales.
Daughter of a para. Went to a Comp. Mum died when she was 15 and she effectively brought up her brother. Paid her own way through sixth form. She's got big-time military credentials, serves in the TA. Added advantage of not going to Oxford - which is starting to wear very thin with the electorate.
Also has Labour relatives.
She's very dangerous news. If she were elected then I reckon the Conservatives can win the next General Election.
Fortunately I believe the current tory MPs are hellbent on self-destruction. They seem to prefer evisceration and a decade out of power.
Named after a warship - "HMS Penelope". Not many people can say that.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Does she have a gritty working class background? One of her ancestors was involved in a famous Victorian divorce case involving the Prince of Wales.
Another was the first Labour C of the E.
So scratch the royalists and the socialist-haters when the membership come to vote.
Opinium is doinh a snap poll, deadline for replies 1230, so clearly they hope to have the results by this evening. Interesting that Hunt has come out all guns blazing - the first big hitter to go public.
I won't express a preference here - wouldn't benefit the result I prefer!
Very surprised at the BF odds. Would have thought Johnson losing is at least even money. What am I missing?
Not entirely sure. Looks stonking value.
Yes I've backed him to lose at 4.5. I'm genuinely excited to think he could be out very soon. I’ll just feel so much better in myself once this bottom drawer individual is no longer our PM.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Does she have a gritty working class background? One of her ancestors was involved in a famous Victorian divorce case involving the Prince of Wales.
Another was the first Labour C of the E.
So scratch the royalists and the socialist-haters when the membership come to vote.
JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.
Given the return to the old way of calling an election - could Boris call one tomorrow for the Lols and what stops him doing so?
Wouldn't he have to first lose a confidence vote in Parliament?
I don't think so - it used to be the PM's prerogative so if the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been revoked surely it's his choice again - No Commons vote required...
Yes that's right. In theory HMQ could deny him the dissolution but of course she wouldn't.
She could ask him if someone else could command the confidence of the House - I’m sure the Tories could rustle up an interim PM while they carried out a leadership election. Then depending on how suicidal the Johnson loyalists are, there might be no need for a GE.
Yes she could do, that's why I said in theory she could deny him an election.
However, in 70 years she has never gone against the wishes of her Prime Minister, so if Boris came knocking and asked for a dissolution so he could hold an election she would grant him his request.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well and tougher on immigration and ideally less carbon net zero obsessed.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
But Johnson is being sacked today because he has messed up Brexit - it’s too hard and business want it watered down. that’s the truth underlying all this isn’t it, Tories have no choice now but to install a government to give business the changes they want to Brexit, in order to ever win again?
I think you're completely wrong. Noone cares about the myriad of difficulties SMEs are having with Brexit; there'd be no rebellion against him if it was solely down to Brexit within the Tories.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
The swivel-eyed membership might not get a vote. I hope they don't as they don't deserve it. Alternatively, you might well be wrong on this as you are on so many things. After all, if ConHome is correct you are in a tiny minority of apologists for The Clown. The second favourite at the moment is a remain voting ex-LibDem monarchy-sceptic. She does exhibit unabashed narcissism, which is a bit of a concern, but she isn't exactly the right winger you think is inevitable.
They will unless there is a coronation for Hunt and Sunak, which there won't be as Raab, Gove and Patel and Truss will all certainly stand hoping to win the membership vote, as probably will Wallace.
If Truss was still a republican Remainer, she backed Remain in 2016 and anti nuclear weapons she would have no chance. She only has a chance now as she has said she now backs the monarchy as an asset to Britain, she is now pro an ultra hard Brexit who wants to rip up the Irish Sea border and slash taxes and spending and slash regulation and backs Trident and as hard a line with Putin as possible. Truss is also a sceptic of what she calls 'green protectionism', she is no Carrie Johnson
JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.
Given the return to the old way of calling an election - could Boris call one tomorrow for the Lols and what stops him doing so?
Wouldn't he have to first lose a confidence vote in Parliament?
I don't think so - it used to be the PM's prerogative so if the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been revoked surely it's his choice again - No Commons vote required...
Yes that's right. In theory HMQ could deny him the dissolution but of course she wouldn't.
She could ask him if someone else could command the confidence of the House - I’m sure the Tories could rustle up an interim PM while they carried out a leadership election. Then depending on how suicidal the Johnson loyalists are, there might be no need for a GE.
Yes she could do, that's why I said in theory she could deny him an election.
However, in 70 years she has never gone against the wishes of her Prime Minister, so if Boris came knocking and asked to a dissolution so he could hold an election she would, of course, grant him his request.
No. She won't play Johnson's games. She never does that kind of thing. IF the tories boot him out tonight he will de facto cease to be leader and PM. She won't play silly buggers with him.
They will appoint a caretaker PM - presumably the Deputy - and that will be Johnson's goose cooked.
Opinium is doinh a snap poll, deadline for replies 1230, so clearly they hope to have the results by this evening. Interesting that Hunt has come out all guns blazing - the first big hitter to go public.
I won't express a preference here - wouldn't benefit the result I prefer!
I must say that I am very surprised at Hunt doing that. Obviously more important to him that Boris gets the boot than his own leadership prospects. Quite noble.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well and tougher on immigration and ideally less carbon net zero obsessed.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
But Johnson is being sacked today because he has messed up Brexit - it’s too hard and business want it watered down. that’s the truth underlying all this isn’t it, Tories have no choice now but to install a government to give business the changes they want to Brexit, in order to ever win again?
Timing doesn't seem to support that analysis? (though you could still be right)
Opinium is doinh a snap poll, deadline for replies 1230, so clearly they hope to have the results by this evening. Interesting that Hunt has come out all guns blazing - the first big hitter to go public.
I won't express a preference here - wouldn't benefit the result I prefer!
I must say that I am very surprised at Hunt doing that. Obviously more important to him that Boris gets the boot than his own leadership prospects. Quite noble.
Doesn't affect his leadership prospects, the whole crown/sword thing is a myth.
JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.
Given the return to the old way of calling an election - could Boris call one tomorrow for the Lols and what stops him doing so?
Wouldn't he have to first lose a confidence vote in Parliament?
I don't think so - it used to be the PM's prerogative so if the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been revoked surely it's his choice again - No Commons vote required...
Yes that's right. In theory HMQ could deny him the dissolution but of course she wouldn't.
She could ask him if someone else could command the confidence of the House - I’m sure the Tories could rustle up an interim PM while they carried out a leadership election. Then depending on how suicidal the Johnson loyalists are, there might be no need for a GE.
Yes she could do, that's why I said in theory she could deny him an election.
However, in 70 years she has never gone against the wishes of her Prime Minister, so if Boris came knocking and asked for a dissolution so he could hold an election she would grant him his request.
I think the Queen would say no if he has just lost a confidence vote within his own party and there is now an up and running leadership election.
Let's hope she is not put in this difficult position by the self-centred twat.
Ugh what a fucking tool. I've a horrible sinking feeling they will bottle it. Then the Tories will be on my 'things i hate as much as Labour' list
By the way @wooliedyed on Radio 4 the other day some chap was talking about the gradual increase in the Tory Redwall vote over elections and that Boris' election was just the final tipping over. It was so close to what you said if I didn't know better I would have thought they had read your post or it was even you in person.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Look at the ideological gaps between the Zac Goldsmiths and the Steve Bakers and tell me there's a single candidate that can unify the tories.
It is an impossible task and the party seems certain to split, if not shatter, over absolutely fundamental disagreements over where Britain should be heading.
They got through 2019 without disintegrating. They will get through a new leader. Remember the purpose of the Tory Party at the moment is to sustain itself in government. It will try and do the necessary, or fail, go into opposition and have an almighty battle at that point.
I disagree. I think the cleverer MPs realise that the conservative party brand may not survive if they do not act now.
Say the tories lost, went back to traditional values and fought an election on a small government, low tax, personal responsibility, free markets platform.
Who would ever believe them? after lockdown? after furlough? after the hard Net Zero target? Nobody.
These policies are potential meteor strike events for the conservatives. That's why they were so enthusiastically supported by the opposition.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
The swivel-eyed membership might not get a vote. I hope they don't as they don't deserve it. Alternatively, you might well be wrong on this as you are on so many things. After all, if ConHome is correct you are in a tiny minority of apologists for The Clown. The second favourite at the moment is a remain voting ex-LibDem monarchy-sceptic. She does exhibit unabashed narcissism, which is a bit of a concern, but she isn't exactly the right winger you think is inevitable.
They will unless there is a coronation for Hunt and Sunak, which there won't be as Raab, Gove and Patel and Truss will all certainly stand hoping to win the membership vote, as probably will Wallace.
If Truss was still a republican Remainer, she backed Remain in 2016 and anti nuclear weapons she would have no chance. She only has a chance now as she has said she now backs the monarchy as an asset to Britain, she is now pro an ultra hard Brexit who wants to rip up the Irish Sea border and slash taxes and spending and slash regulation and backs Trident and as hard a line with Putin as possible. Truss is also a sceptical of what she calls 'green protectionism' and much less pro net zero than Boris
Looks like Boris will sail through, if the odds are correct. I personally think he will win, and it will just draw a line under partygate, and all the questions about his leadership. But the odds might tighten as the day goes on. Wouldn't be suprised if we get another similar vote before his time as PM is up though.
I'm curious why you think it will draw a line under it. He himself shows a failed ousting bid doesnt lead to unity and loyalty from the plotters.
- Of the last five Tory PMs, four have faced either a VoNC from their Party or a leadership challenge (Thatcher, Major, May, Johnson. The exception is Cameron). This goes back nearly half a century. - All three of the four whose result we know won a majority of Tory MPs. Nevertheless, one resigned promptly, a second within months, and the third would have resigned if he'd got just a little less.
Which means that we should always expect an eventual VoNC in Tory PMs sooner or later, and we should expect them to win a majority, but to seriously consider resigning anyway.
However, with Johnson, that latter bit may well not apply because he's shameless
Asked to describe his party, Mr Hague said the Tories were like “an absolute monarchy, moderated by regicide”.
I predict that if Boris wins his jubilant defenders will forget all those who agreed he would and bang on about how everyone thought he would lose but the big dog showed them all.
Ugh what a fucking tool. I've a horrible sinking feeling they will bottle it. Then the Tories will be on my 'things i hate as much as Labour' list
By the way @wooliedyed on Radio 4 the other day some chap was talking about the gradual increase in the Tory Redwall vote over elections and that Boris' election was just the final tipping over. It was so close to what you said if I didn't know better I would have thought they had read your post or it was even you in person.
Lolz! I can confirm it wasn't me, but nice to hear someone agreed with me, ha! If they dont take the chance today a lot of hard work is getting undone next time out.
Opinium is doinh a snap poll, deadline for replies 1230, so clearly they hope to have the results by this evening. Interesting that Hunt has come out all guns blazing - the first big hitter to go public.
I won't express a preference here - wouldn't benefit the result I prefer!
I must say that I am very surprised at Hunt doing that. Obviously more important to him that Boris gets the boot than his own leadership prospects. Quite noble.
Doesn't affect his leadership prospects, the whole crown/sword thing is a myth.
I think you're wrong.
The sensible thing, if he really wants the leadership, is to sit back and let others do the talking. Gnomic comments at most. The party will want someone who can promise to unite it, and will be acceptable to the maximum number of MPs and activists.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well and tougher on immigration and ideally less carbon net zero obsessed.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
But Johnson is being sacked today because he has messed up Brexit - it’s too hard and business want it watered down. that’s the truth underlying all this isn’t it, Tories have no choice now but to install a government to give business the changes they want to Brexit, in order to ever win again?
Rubbish, you are deluded if you think the Tory membership will elect anyone who is not as pro hard a Brexit as Johnson if not more so.
That is the Tory voting coalition primarily now, hard Leavers and lose them to Farage again and they would be left with nothing
JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.
Given the return to the old way of calling an election - could Boris call one tomorrow for the Lols and what stops him doing so?
Wouldn't he have to first lose a confidence vote in Parliament?
I don't think so - it used to be the PM's prerogative so if the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been revoked surely it's his choice again - No Commons vote required...
Yes that's right. In theory HMQ could deny him the dissolution but of course she wouldn't.
She could ask him if someone else could command the confidence of the House - I’m sure the Tories could rustle up an interim PM while they carried out a leadership election. Then depending on how suicidal the Johnson loyalists are, there might be no need for a GE.
Yes she could do, that's why I said in theory she could deny him an election.
However, in 70 years she has never gone against the wishes of her Prime Minister, so if Boris came knocking and asked for a dissolution so he could hold an election she would grant him his request.
I think the Queen would say no if he has just lost a confidence vote within his own party and there is now an up and running leadership election.
Let's hope she is not put in this difficult position by the self-centred twat.
Or say she was busy and could he come back next week
That JRM quote will be getting a lot of outings today:
PM has c160 MPs on payroll and c200 backbench MPs. So losing support of 100+ MPs means PM has lost support of majority to his backbenches. When TM lost 117 votes JRM said a “terrible result & she should resign”. For PM, JRM says he only needs to win by one vote to stay
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
Yeah but she also has a real gritty working class background.
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Yes, not often I agree with you politically, but I think I'm with you in seeing her as my favoured candidate. My only reservations are the worry that perhaps to some extent I favour her partly because she hasn't had the experience or prominence yet to do or say things that annoy me; or that I am filling in the gaps in my understanding of her with hope.
I feel like there's a lot of ramping going on with Mordaunt. For a party in government for 12 years she's really inexperienced: only 2 years in a relatively minor department and then barely enough time to brew a cup of tea at Defence. What has she actually done? Does this just reflect a lack of good candidates, that people are projecting their ideals on her because she's a blank canvas?
I had to look her up because apart from a vague idea she'd been in the Cabinet under May and then sacked immediately by Johnson (a plus point) the only thing I knew about her was that she'd been on TV in some swimming programme.
So. What's the call then? I think he's gone. Why? No positive reason to vote for him. It's all negatives. And vaccine rollout (in the past). No one has put forward a single argument about anything at all good to come in the future. It's fear. So gone. I have no great confidence in this.
No he wins. 170 unemployables are on the payroll (amazingly enough). Add in the dozen or so Bullingdon Boys who think making Nadine Dorries Culture Secretary was the funniest prank of all time and he's over the line.
People may label those groups differently, but it shows how hard it is. IDS only just lost and he didnt have the cachet of being PM.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?
There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well and tougher on immigration and ideally less carbon net zero obsessed.
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
But Johnson is being sacked today because he has messed up Brexit - it’s too hard and business want it watered down. that’s the truth underlying all this isn’t it, Tories have no choice now but to install a government to give business the changes they want to Brexit, in order to ever win again?
I think you're completely wrong. Noone cares about the myriad of difficulties SMEs are having with Brexit; there'd be no rebellion against him if it was solely down to Brexit within the Tories.
I think I am completely right in thinking Brexit fault lines in how people see things haven’t gone away - in terms of voting in recent GE and locals and by elections there is still remainia and leaverstan, just as much as 2016 perhaps more so in minds of remainers.
So how do you claim it’s true voters think and feel like this, but no MPs or party members do? So I ask you to think again on the idea the Boris government is a blocker on the tweaks and movement needed in the Brexit deal, due diligence on next leader, where will a Hunt, Mourdant, Tugendhat, Wallace stand on the Tory Party cuddling up to business again and tweaking the current Brexit.
Would be very surprised if no one on PB can also see how the clear hand of Brexit is guiding things here.
Comments
That man is in thorough need of losing his seat to the Lib Dems at the next GE.
He has to seek a dissolution.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1533744516410261506
Many in No 10 simply didn't think the numbers were there
Key players in operation to safeguard PM went on holiday
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-is-sleepwalking-into-an-inevitable-vote-of-no-confidence-0x9bnfmrw
Yes that's right. In theory HMQ could deny him the dissolution but of course she wouldn't.
Is this the moronic dumbed down mentality that pervades the modern Tory Party? Boris Johnson won an election against a leader that was unique in being even more unsuitable than Boris Johnson. Both were/are lazy, dishonest and incompetent. Corbyn is history. It is time Johnson is too.
Whoever would have thought?
Don't FUCK it up! As Rupaul is fond of saying.
He will be IDS on quaaludes. So dull. And not smart
If they elect Ben Wallace it means they are accepting defeat in 2024 and they just want a quiet life in Opposition for ten years
She's a very dangerous prospect for Labour. She eviscerated Angela Rayner and I suspect she would look very impressive up against Starmer.
She'd be capable of winning the centre voters as well as the red wall: all that military background is perfect and unlike Boris it's for real.
I think she's hugely impressive and if she were to win a GE I'd be pretty chilled about it, unlike most other Conservatives.
She'd be very dangerous for Labour.
Would have thought Johnson losing is at least even money. What am I missing?
So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit
If there is one person who could do it despite never serving in a great office I think it would be Wallace above Mordaunt. But if we do get a contest it is tricky to see how it goes.
It is an impossible task and the party seems certain to split, if not shatter, over absolutely fundamental disagreements over where Britain should be heading.
Why he’s a superstar at Westminster is a mystery.
Jacob Rees-Mogg says he expects Boris Johnson to win tonight's vote, adding by one vote "is enough"
The minister says he regrets calling for Theresa May to resign after she won a confidence vote - "I learn from my mistakes"
https://bbc.in/3xtvZ1x
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1533759627132796929
Looks stonking value.
You are a disastrous litmus paper at the moment.
I've got the dvd but I think this is it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyAQB4TIKNw
Possibly outweighs his "dudness" (according to you), at Holyrood 20 years ago?
Thatcher was replaced with the dull Major, if Boris goes I certainly would not rule out him being replaced by the dull, safe pair of hands Wallace. Indeed as a Tory member I would vote for Wallace if he stands and Boris goes.
IDS also polled better than Hague don't forget and no worse than Howard did in 2005
- Of the last five Tory PMs, four have faced either a VoNC from their Party or a leadership challenge (Thatcher, Major, May, Johnson. The exception is Cameron). This goes back nearly half a century.
- All three of the four whose result we know won a majority of Tory MPs. Nevertheless, one resigned promptly, a second within months, and the third would have resigned if he'd got just a little less.
Which means that we should always expect an eventual VoNC in Tory PMs sooner or later, and we should expect them to win a majority, but to seriously consider resigning anyway.
However, with Johnson, that latter bit may well not apply because he's shameless
Also has Labour relatives.
She's very dangerous news. If she were elected then I reckon the Conservatives can win the next General Election.
Fortunately I believe the current tory MPs are hellbent on self-destruction. They seem to prefer evisceration and a decade out of power.
So scratch the royalists and the socialist-haters when the membership come to vote.
I won't express a preference here - wouldn't benefit the result I prefer!
However, in 70 years she has never gone against the wishes of her Prime Minister, so if Boris came knocking and asked for a dissolution so he could hold an election she would grant him his request.
If Truss was still a republican Remainer, she backed Remain in 2016 and anti nuclear weapons she would have no chance. She only has a chance now as she has said she now backs the monarchy as an asset to Britain, she is now pro an ultra hard Brexit who wants to rip up the Irish Sea border and slash taxes and spending and slash regulation and backs Trident and as hard a line with Putin as possible. Truss is also a sceptic of what she calls 'green protectionism', she is no Carrie Johnson
https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4034793/liz-truss-reject-green-protectionism-favour-free-trade-drive-net-zero
They will appoint a caretaker PM - presumably the Deputy - and that will be Johnson's goose cooked.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44618154
Let's hope she is not put in this difficult position by the self-centred twat.
Say the tories lost, went back to traditional values and fought an election on a small government, low tax, personal responsibility, free markets platform.
Who would ever believe them? after lockdown? after furlough? after the hard Net Zero target? Nobody.
These policies are potential meteor strike events for the conservatives. That's why they were so enthusiastically supported by the opposition.
Didn't know any of the others wanted immediate disarmament.
Would guarantee his survival though
If they dont take the chance today a lot of hard work is getting undone next time out.
The sensible thing, if he really wants the leadership, is to sit back and let others do the talking. Gnomic comments at most. The party will want someone who can promise to unite it, and will be acceptable to the maximum number of MPs and activists.
That is the Tory voting coalition primarily now, hard Leavers and lose them to Farage again and they would be left with nothing
I had to look her up because apart from a vague idea she'd been in the Cabinet under May and then sacked immediately by Johnson (a plus point) the only thing I knew about her was that she'd been on TV in some swimming programme.
59% think Tory MPs should vote to remove PM
28% think they should vote to keep him
13% Don't know
https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1533764283116441600
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqqqWAI-6QQ
https://twitter.com/simmons__/status/1533760062237335552
So how do you claim it’s true voters think and feel like this, but no MPs or party members do? So I ask you to think again on the idea the Boris government is a blocker on the tweaks and movement needed in the Brexit deal, due diligence on next leader, where will a Hunt, Mourdant, Tugendhat, Wallace stand on the Tory Party cuddling up to business again and tweaking the current Brexit.
Would be very surprised if no one on PB can also see how the clear hand of Brexit is guiding things here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGqikf5Neas
Question is would the membership vote for her
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12paYQUEGaE
A deeply impressive performer.