When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.
That narrow's down the runners and riders.
For at least the last 100 years, those who have become PM had been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For Sec. It’s a pattern, not a rule.
Not a rule, but perhaps a helpful guide. 8 potential candidates.
From that list Javid or Patel look like the ones to watch.
What was Margaret Thatcher? I thought she was education secretary?
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.
That narrow's down the runners and riders.
For at least the last 100 years, those who have become PM had been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For Sec. It’s a pattern, not a rule.
Not a rule, but perhaps a helpful guide. 8 potential candidates.
From that list Javid or Patel look like the ones to watch.
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.
That narrow's down the runners and riders.
For at least the last 100 years, those who have become PM had been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For Sec. It’s a pattern, not a rule.
Not a rule, but perhaps a helpful guide. 8 potential candidates.
From that list Javid or Patel look like the ones to watch.
What was Margaret Thatcher? I thought she was education secretary?
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.
That narrow's down the runners and riders.
For at least the last 100 years, those who have become PM had been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For Sec. It’s a pattern, not a rule.
Not a rule, but perhaps a helpful guide. 8 potential candidates.
From that list Javid or Patel look like the ones to watch.
What was Margaret Thatcher? I thought she was education secretary?
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.
That narrow's down the runners and riders.
For at least the last 100 years, those who have become PM had been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For Sec. It’s a pattern, not a rule.
Not a rule, but perhaps a helpful guide. 8 potential candidates.
From that list Javid or Patel look like the ones to watch.
What was Margaret Thatcher? I thought she was education secretary?
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.
That narrow's down the runners and riders.
For at least the last 100 years, those who have become PM had been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For Sec. It’s a pattern, not a rule.
Not a rule, but perhaps a helpful guide. 8 potential candidates.
From that list Javid or Patel look like the ones to watch.
What was Margaret Thatcher? I thought she was education secretary?
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.
That narrow's down the runners and riders.
For at least the last 100 years, those who have become PM had been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For Sec. It’s a pattern, not a rule.
Not a rule, but perhaps a helpful guide. 8 potential candidates.
From that list Javid or Patel look like the ones to watch.
What was Margaret Thatcher? I thought she was education secretary?
Yep shadow 67 to 70 then education and science in the Heath adminnstration. Former PPS to Pension minister and later shadow environment before leader of the opp
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
Have bet similarly, but mainly on out before the party conference.
It was interesting that the odds on that lengthened significantly after the VONC was called, reflecting the view (presumably) that the snap vote greatly favours Johnson. I'm not convinced by that assumption, and increased my stake accordingly.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I think taking 5.1 was sensible. I think he wins, but not convincingly, but I think the probability of a straight loss is >20%. I don’t think he leads the Conservatives into the next general election. I have not bet myself.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I think he loses. Not that many people have been willing to go public in support, implying that everyone is hedging their bets. I very much suspect that the hedgers will be more inclined to vote against provided they think he is toast… it is all about momentum and inevitability. And I don’t think he has it.
Once the king can no longer punish you he is no longer the king
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Arthur Balfour is the last one. Campbell-Bannerman, Cameron and MacDonald only had LOTO experience
And Blair and Thatcher. SKS would be the same too.
In the last 100 years only Cameron and MacDonald had no ministerial experience at all, MacDonald taking on FS at the same time as PM. Cameron had just 7 months as shadow education minister
There was once another tradition in the Conservative party - that talked of prudence, dignity and restraint. Boris Johnson shames the party, and our country. He cannot govern. Let him go. https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1533726721077280768
Interesting account of a Ukrainian farmer in western Ukraine, with last year's harvest still waiting to export.
here is a story for you to stop blaming Ukraine for an upcoming food crisis: my father is a farmer in Lviv region, a Western part of Ukraine near the Polish border. he had a lot of clients abroad and his produce in large amounts was transported by the Black sea. 1/... https://twitter.com/readerwriternow/status/1533719101754966016
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Arthur Balfour is the last one. Campbell-Bannerman, Cameron and MacDonald only had LOTO experience
And Blair and Thatcher. SKS would be the same too.
Forgot Blair! Thatcher had ministerial experience alongside LOTO
I’m sorry to have to resign as the PM’s Anti-Corruption Tsar but, after his reply last week about the Ministerial Code, it’s pretty clear he has broken it. That’s a resigning matter for me, and it should be for the PM too. Here’s my letter to him explaining why. https://twitter.com/JohnPenroseNews/status/1533753928483061760
The bit in the linked article that I question is - "{Germany sent} 1,500 Strela anti-aircraft missiles."
If Germanys sent any shoulder launched Russian missiles, they would be 30 years old. 30 year old solid rocket fuel is lethally dangerous unless proven otherwise.
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Arthur Balfour is the last one. Campbell-Bannerman, Cameron and MacDonald only had LOTO experience
And Blair and Thatcher. SKS would be the same too.
Forgot Blair! Thatcher had ministerial experience alongside LOTO
Ministerial experience, but not one of the great offices.
In this afternoon’s vote I will be unable to give my support to the Prime Minister. The country has reason to be grateful to Boris Johnson for getting Brexit done after a period of uncertainty and for securing a successful vaccine programme in the face of the pandemic. https://twitter.com/MarkPawsey/status/1533781441766645761
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Arthur Balfour is the last one. Campbell-Bannerman, Cameron and MacDonald only had LOTO experience
And Blair and Thatcher. SKS would be the same too.
Forgot Blair! Thatcher had ministerial experience alongside LOTO
Ministerial experience, but not one of the great offices.
Yes but i was talking about PMs with only LOTO experience, no ministerial of any kind - MacDonald, Cameron and Blair whom i'd totally overlooked.
Edit - Wilson, for example had also never held a great office of State
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I think he loses by 5-10.
I hope he loses, I suspect he will win by around 65.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I think he loses by 5-10.
I'm on the lose list too. Not a single positive reason yet put forward to keep him. Any that are all look to the past not the future.
To paraphrase the advice of Niccolo Machiavelli written five centuries ago, to stay in power a leader has either to be loved or feared. We will see later which applies in Great Britain today.
The bit in the linked article that I question is - "{Germany sent} 1,500 Strela anti-aircraft missiles."
If Germanys sent any shoulder launched Russian missiles, they would be 30 years old. 30 year old solid rocket fuel is lethally dangerous unless proven otherwise.
Probably. If properly stored, some solid propellant motors have a shelf life of up to 25 years, but the reported condition of these didn't indicate they'd been particularly well looked after - and 30 years is more than pushing it.
To paraphrase the advice of Niccolo Machiavelli written five centuries ago, to stay in power a leader has either to be loved or feared. We will see later which applies in Great Britain today.
Something that just struck me - Brown and May were awful prime ministers. In some ways worse than Boris eg Brown dithered endlessly and May was so stubborn, but I didn't feel so strongly about either as I do about Boris. I suspect that is down to honour. They had it, he doesn't.
Quite so. Boris is actually not that bad as PM, per se
Of course if you think Brexit is the greatest British disaster since the Somme then you will think he is terrible, but try and set that aside and you are left with a very good campaigner, who won two brilliant victories (the referendum and the 2019 GE) who crushed Corbynism and has shown himself notably superior to most of his European counterparts in several crucial areas: vaccines to beat Covid, taking his nation out of lockdown, and serious support for Ukraine. He also brought off AUKUS
That makes him far better than Brown and TMay, to my mind. Probably better than Cameron?
Unfortunately he has deep personal flaws which are proving to be fatal. Mainly, he needs to be liked. I am pretty sure this is Why partygate. He didn’t want to be the balloon-popping naysayer in Number 10, it’s not his style, so he let it all get out of hand, and turned an indulgent blind eye. So his staff would like him. Ooops
Also, he has no socio-economic vision for the country. None. Levelling up is all rhetoric and bluff. What else? A bridge to Rockall? A space centre for Newent? Meanwhile his government, like the PM himself, spaffs money everywhere
One day we will be sufficiently far beyond Brexit that Boris will get a fair appraisal, and history will be surprisingly kind, I reckon. But we won’t achieve this neutral perspective for a looooooong time
I disagree. He's easily the worst of my lifetime. Lazy, no grasp of detail, indecisive, insecure, says the first thing that comes into his head, no clear policy other than whatever's best for Boris today. And a thoroughly dishonest and unproncipled person as you do clearly say.
There are some upsides to this - his laziness means that a capable subordinate will be left alone without interference and can deliver. Unfortunately his insecurity means that anyone capable will be cut down as a threat - apart from Michael Gove, who is clearly unelectable as a PM.
Where you are completely right is that he is a phenomenal politician - and that is a major part of being a successful PM. He seems to have a great sense for the way the wind is blowing in terms of what's popular in the country. He does have a sense of vision in vague terms, and can sell a story emotionally. His 'Boris' persona is memorable and at least initially appealing. Above all he can smell a threat a mile off and is utterly ruthless in going for the jugular in squashing it.
His political skill has made him electorally unassailable, until he has been found out as PM, which needs so much more.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.
That narrow's down the runners and riders.
For at least the last 100 years, those who have become PM had been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For Sec. It’s a pattern, not a rule.
Not a rule, but perhaps a helpful guide. 8 potential candidates.
From that list Javid or Patel look like the ones to watch.
What was Margaret Thatcher? I thought she was education secretary?
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032 New- just seen an interesting email to MPs from Sir Graham Brady- who is running tonight’s confidence vote as chair of the 1922 committee. A big warning about it being confidential- and no pics of ballot papers to be taken or vote void
Allegedly, Team Big Dog has been demanding loyalists prove their loyalty by breaking the secrecy of the ballot.
Brady's a fair umpire, nixxes a potential plan "Let Mogg take care of your proxy vote"...
Starting to wonder whether 10% is a bit on the low side.
It is but it's far more likely Tory MPs bottle it than not.
If there were a clear alternative polling much better he'd already be gone.
He's not without some qualities, but he's also just plain lucky on top of that.
Just spoke to a @BorisJohnson supporter who hopes the number of MPs calling for him to go will be under 100. At that rate the MP thinks he will be fine. But the MP fears 120 no votes which means PM would struggle. If it is 150 or more no votes then the PM “is finished” https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533781685141217284
The 'just 1 vote' stuff is probably bluster. There's a reason Thatcher knew her lead was a problem (yes it was a different system too).
Just spoke to a @BorisJohnson supporter who hopes the number of MPs calling for him to go will be under 100. At that rate the MP thinks he will be fine. But the MP fears 120 no votes which means PM would struggle. If it is 150 or more no votes then the PM “is finished” https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533781685141217284
The 'just 1 vote' stuff is probably bluster. There's a reason Thatcher knew her lead was a problem (yes it was a different system too).
It's quite effective bluster, though. Say he wins by 10. What do his opponents do to force him out? They could change the rules and force another vote. say he then wins by 8, and remains defiant. What then? There comes a point where even the Parliamentary party will get fed up with being asked the dame thing until they get the "right" answer, as they always accused the EU of doing.
True, but rebels should be wary of thinking theyll get another go so soon. May quit as her government was paralysed, leading to electoral humiliation. Are they prepared in 6-12 months to bring government to a halt?
This could be it - only wound him and all you might achieve is him bleeding all over the party for 2 years. Like Corbyn.
The bit in the linked article that I question is - "{Germany sent} 1,500 Strela anti-aircraft missiles."
If Germanys sent any shoulder launched Russian missiles, they would be 30 years old. 30 year old solid rocket fuel is lethally dangerous unless proven otherwise.
Probably. If properly stored, some solid propellant motors have a shelf life of up to 25 years, but the reported condition of these didn't indicate they'd been particularly well looked after - and 30 years is more than pushing it.
One small crack in the grain and you'd be redoing Sir Hiram Maxim at Plumstead....
When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.
Arthur Balfour is the last one. Campbell-Bannerman, Cameron and MacDonald only had LOTO experience
Balfour was Leader of the Opposition in the House of Commons from 1892-95 and First Lord of the Treasury from 1895-1902.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1533750041449488387
The German government is not supplying tanks to Ukraine because it fears that Ukrainian troops could use them to invade Russia, reported Spiegel, citing its sources.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
It was interesting that the odds on that lengthened significantly after the VONC was called, reflecting the view (presumably) that the snap vote greatly favours Johnson.
I'm not convinced by that assumption, and increased my stake accordingly.
Also had a smaller dabble on tonight's vote.
FWIW.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1533785552503418881
Once the king can no longer punish you he is no longer the king
Cameron had just 7 months as shadow education minister
Edit - and Blair.....! Forgot him
Boris Johnson shames the party, and our country.
He cannot govern.
Let him go.
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1533726721077280768
here is a story for you to stop blaming Ukraine for an upcoming food crisis: my father is a farmer in Lviv region, a Western part of Ukraine near the Polish border. he had a lot of clients abroad and his produce in large amounts was transported by the Black sea. 1/...
https://twitter.com/readerwriternow/status/1533719101754966016
That's the threshold at which Boris Johnson fares worse than Theresa May.
TMay won her confidence vote by 63%... and even then stood down as party leader 6 months later.
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1533786870819209221
Thatcher had ministerial experience alongside LOTO
If Germanys sent any shoulder launched Russian missiles, they would be 30 years old. 30 year old solid rocket fuel is lethally dangerous unless proven otherwise.
https://twitter.com/MarkPawsey/status/1533781441766645761
Please.
I think he may well.
That he has to go.
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1533786944433696768
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-61703174
South Africans have condemned Irish airline Ryanair for making them take a test in the Afrikaans language on UK flights, calling it discriminatory.
Edit - Wilson, for example had also never held a great office of State
Rumblings of defections in Tory ranks.
Boris goes to the country to ask "who governs us" and the people say "not you".
It's a plausible timeline.
https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1533789057049821186
Not a single positive reason yet put forward to keep him. Any that are all look to the past not the future.
Absolutely brutal JL Partners poll for The Telegraph which will worry Tory MPs:
- 63% of voters now have negative view of PM
- 93% of those with negative view unlikely to change their mind
- 62% believe PM should not lead Tories into next election
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/06/boris-johnson-news-confidence-vote-partygate-tory-mps/
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088?s=20&t=Vh5EGuDeEVl1VoXo9ivr-w
Which, disappointingly is about what the markets think as well so I haven't even came up with a controversial opinion.
If properly stored, some solid propellant motors have a shelf life of up to 25 years, but the reported condition of these didn't indicate they'd been particularly well looked after - and 30 years is more than pushing it.
I didn't wonder whether he would or should be allowed to vote, but whether he would do so.
There are some upsides to this - his laziness means that a capable subordinate will be left alone without interference and can deliver. Unfortunately his insecurity means that anyone capable will be cut down as a threat - apart from Michael Gove, who is clearly unelectable as a PM.
Where you are completely right is that he is a phenomenal politician - and that is a major part of being a successful PM. He seems to have a great sense for the way the wind is blowing in terms of what's popular in the country. He does have a sense of vision in vague terms, and can sell a story emotionally. His 'Boris' persona is memorable and at least initially appealing. Above all he can smell a threat a mile off and is utterly ruthless in going for the jugular in squashing it.
His political skill has made him electorally unassailable, until he has been found out as PM, which needs so much more.
This could be it - only wound him and all you might achieve is him bleeding all over the party for 2 years. Like Corbyn.