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The confidence vote takes place tonight – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Interesting account of a Ukrainian farmer in western Ukraine, with last year's harvest still waiting to export.

    here is a story for you to stop blaming Ukraine for an upcoming food crisis: my father is a farmer in Lviv region, a Western part of Ukraine near the Polish border. he had a lot of clients abroad and his produce in large amounts was transported by the Black sea. 1/...
    https://twitter.com/readerwriternow/status/1533719101754966016
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    👀 Another Tory MP on Govt payroll texts to say: 'Rebels are confident of 133'.

    That's the threshold at which Boris Johnson fares worse than Theresa May.

    TMay won her confidence vote by 63%... and even then stood down as party leader 6 months later.

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1533786870819209221
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    Applicant said:

    Jonathan said:

    When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.

    Arthur Balfour is the last one.
    Campbell-Bannerman, Cameron and MacDonald only had LOTO experience
    And Blair and Thatcher. SKS would be the same too.
    Forgot Blair!
    Thatcher had ministerial experience alongside LOTO
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Nigelb said:

    Did we do this ?

    I’m sorry to have to resign as the PM’s Anti-Corruption Tsar but, after his reply last week about the Ministerial Code, it’s pretty clear he has broken it. That’s a resigning matter for me, and it should be for the PM too. Here’s my letter to him explaining why.
    https://twitter.com/JohnPenroseNews/status/1533753928483061760

    Yes, but it bears reiterating.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    Nigelb said:

    There's another western leader who even more richly deserves the order of the boot.

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1533750041449488387
    The German government is not supplying tanks to Ukraine because it fears that Ukrainian troops could use them to invade Russia, reported Spiegel, citing its sources.

    The bit in the linked article that I question is - "{Germany sent} 1,500 Strela anti-aircraft missiles."

    If Germanys sent any shoulder launched Russian missiles, they would be 30 years old. 30 year old solid rocket fuel is lethally dangerous unless proven otherwise.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    Jonathan said:

    When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.

    Arthur Balfour is the last one.
    Campbell-Bannerman, Cameron and MacDonald only had LOTO experience
    And Blair and Thatcher. SKS would be the same too.
    Forgot Blair!
    Thatcher had ministerial experience alongside LOTO
    Ministerial experience, but not one of the great offices.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MP tells me that a significant amount of arm twisting is going on to get them to tweet support for Boris Johnson. The ring round is in full swing.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1533785552503418881

    In this afternoon’s vote I will be unable to give my support to the Prime Minister. The country has reason to be grateful to Boris Johnson for getting Brexit done after a period of uncertainty and for securing a successful vaccine programme in the face of the pandemic.
    https://twitter.com/MarkPawsey/status/1533781441766645761
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    No one had IDS in that list of eligible runners and riders who fit the criteria.
    Please.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Have now heard a number of political journalists saying he won't lose.
    I think he may well.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Reports the Dorries thread about Hunt has convinced a few.
    That he has to go.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Education Sec Nadhim Zahawi on Dorries v Hunt: 'I'm heartbroken that colleagues are suddenly having to attack each other'
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1533786944433696768
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Wait, what?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-61703174

    South Africans have condemned Irish airline Ryanair for making them take a test in the Afrikaans language on UK flights, calling it discriminatory.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    TOPPING said:

    Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

    I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

    He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

    Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

    *Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

    I think he loses by 5-10.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Jonathan said:

    When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.

    Arthur Balfour is the last one.
    Campbell-Bannerman, Cameron and MacDonald only had LOTO experience
    And Blair and Thatcher. SKS would be the same too.
    Forgot Blair!
    Thatcher had ministerial experience alongside LOTO
    Ministerial experience, but not one of the great offices.
    Yes but i was talking about PMs with only LOTO experience, no ministerial of any kind - MacDonald, Cameron and Blair whom i'd totally overlooked.

    Edit - Wilson, for example had also never held a great office of State
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

    I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

    He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

    Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

    *Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

    I think he loses by 5-10.
    I hope he loses, I suspect he will win by around 65.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Sarah Montague on The World at One just invented a new compendium cabinet loyalist, Nadhim Dorries. Artistic impressions welcome.
    https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1533789057049821186
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

    I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

    He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

    Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

    *Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

    I think he loses by 5-10.
    I'm on the lose list too.
    Not a single positive reason yet put forward to keep him. Any that are all look to the past not the future.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    🚨

    Absolutely brutal JL Partners poll for The Telegraph which will worry Tory MPs:

    - 63% of voters now have negative view of PM

    - 93% of those with negative view unlikely to change their mind

    - 62% believe PM should not lead Tories into next election
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/06/boris-johnson-news-confidence-vote-partygate-tory-mps/
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,797
    We're over in the next thread, everyone.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    I'm hearing the thread below from the Culture Secretary about Jeremy Hunt has incensed some MPs and is tempting some to vote against the Prime Minister -- because they feel it comes with his endorsement
    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088?s=20&t=Vh5EGuDeEVl1VoXo9ivr-w
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Right, my fully uneducated opinion gives Boris a 25% chance of losing today.

    Which, disappointingly is about what the markets think as well so I haven't even came up with a controversial opinion.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Nigelb said:

    I wonder if he will ?

    I understand the Tory MP accused of rape will be allowed to vote in today's confidence vote in Boris Johnson.

    It is because he has not had the whip suspended

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1533754523604361218

    Accused but not charged - off course he should be allowed to vote. What land do we live in an accusation is enough to stop you voting?
  • Old_HandOld_Hand Posts: 49
    To paraphrase the advice of Niccolo Machiavelli written five centuries ago, to stay in power a leader has either to be loved or feared. We will see later which applies in Great Britain today.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    There's another western leader who even more richly deserves the order of the boot.

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1533750041449488387
    The German government is not supplying tanks to Ukraine because it fears that Ukrainian troops could use them to invade Russia, reported Spiegel, citing its sources.

    The bit in the linked article that I question is - "{Germany sent} 1,500 Strela anti-aircraft missiles."

    If Germanys sent any shoulder launched Russian missiles, they would be 30 years old. 30 year old solid rocket fuel is lethally dangerous unless proven otherwise.
    Probably.
    If properly stored, some solid propellant motors have a shelf life of up to 25 years, but the reported condition of these didn't indicate they'd been particularly well looked after - and 30 years is more than pushing it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Old_Hand said:

    To paraphrase the advice of Niccolo Machiavelli written five centuries ago, to stay in power a leader has either to be loved or feared. We will see later which applies in Great Britain today.

    Or neither.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    I wonder if he will ?

    I understand the Tory MP accused of rape will be allowed to vote in today's confidence vote in Boris Johnson.

    It is because he has not had the whip suspended

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1533754523604361218

    Accused but not charged - off course he should be allowed to vote. What land do we live in an accusation is enough to stop you voting?
    Also arrested and bailed.

    I didn't wonder whether he would or should be allowed to vote, but whether he would do so.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 645
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Something that just struck me - Brown and May were awful prime ministers. In some ways worse than Boris eg Brown dithered endlessly and May was so stubborn, but I didn't feel so strongly about either as I do about Boris. I suspect that is down to honour. They had it, he doesn't.

    Quite so. Boris is actually not that bad as PM, per se

    Of course if you think Brexit is the greatest British disaster since the Somme then you will think he is terrible, but try and set that aside and you are left with a very good campaigner, who won two brilliant victories (the referendum and the 2019 GE) who crushed Corbynism and has shown himself notably superior to most of his European counterparts in several crucial areas: vaccines to beat Covid, taking his nation out of lockdown, and serious support for Ukraine. He also brought off AUKUS

    That makes him far better than Brown and TMay, to my mind. Probably better than Cameron?

    Unfortunately he has deep personal flaws which are proving to be fatal. Mainly, he needs to be liked. I am pretty sure this is Why partygate. He didn’t want to be the balloon-popping naysayer in Number 10, it’s not his style, so he let it all get out of hand, and turned an indulgent blind eye. So his staff would like him. Ooops

    Also, he has no socio-economic vision for the country. None. Levelling up is all rhetoric and bluff. What else? A bridge to Rockall? A space centre for Newent? Meanwhile his government, like the PM himself, spaffs money everywhere

    One day we will be sufficiently far beyond Brexit that Boris will get a fair appraisal, and history will be surprisingly kind, I reckon. But we won’t achieve this neutral perspective for a looooooong time

    I disagree. He's easily the worst of my lifetime. Lazy, no grasp of detail, indecisive, insecure, says the first thing that comes into his head, no clear policy other than whatever's best for Boris today. And a thoroughly dishonest and unproncipled person as you do clearly say.

    There are some upsides to this - his laziness means that a capable subordinate will be left alone without interference and can deliver. Unfortunately his insecurity means that anyone capable will be cut down as a threat - apart from Michael Gove, who is clearly unelectable as a PM.

    Where you are completely right is that he is a phenomenal politician - and that is a major part of being a successful PM. He seems to have a great sense for the way the wind is blowing in terms of what's popular in the country. He does have a sense of vision in vague terms, and can sell a story emotionally. His 'Boris' persona is memorable and at least initially appealing. Above all he can smell a threat a mile off and is utterly ruthless in going for the jugular in squashing it.

    His political skill has made him electorally unassailable, until he has been found out as PM, which needs so much more.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896

    Mad Nad’s mad: - to Hunt:

    3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763409627566080

    On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

    You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.


    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763407970816002
    If there's an iota of truth in that, its truly shocking. Thank goodness Hunt wasn't PM is so. 😲
    What was government policy for inbound flights: self-isolation or quarantine hotels?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.

    Unless I've made a mistake, for at least the last 100 years, to become PM you have to have been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For. Sec.

    That narrow's down the runners and riders.
    For at least the last 100 years, those who have become PM had been LoO, CoE, Home Sec, For Sec. It’s a pattern, not a rule.

    Not a rule, but perhaps a helpful guide. 8 potential candidates.

    From that list Javid or Patel look like the ones to watch.
    What was Margaret Thatcher? I thought she was education secretary?
    LoO
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    New thread.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's 4/1 that Johnson loses tonight with Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.199959695

    Poor value if you think it's 10% though.
    Nigelb said:

    I wonder what prompted this ?

    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032
    New- just seen an interesting email to MPs from Sir Graham Brady- who is running tonight’s confidence vote as chair of the 1922 committee. A big warning about it being confidential- and no pics of ballot papers to be taken or vote void

    Allegedly, Team Big Dog has been demanding loyalists prove their loyalty by breaking the secrecy of the ballot.

    Brady's a fair umpire, nixxes a potential plan "Let Mogg take care of your proxy vote"...
    Starting to wonder whether 10% is a bit on the low side.
    It is but it's far more likely Tory MPs bottle it than not.

    If there were a clear alternative polling much better he'd already be gone.
    He's not without some qualities, but he's also just plain lucky on top of that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    Scott_xP said:

    Just spoke to a @BorisJohnson supporter who hopes the number of MPs calling for him to go will be under 100. At that rate the MP thinks he will be fine. But the MP fears 120 no votes which means PM would struggle. If it is 150 or more no votes then the PM “is finished”
    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533781685141217284

    The 'just 1 vote' stuff is probably bluster. There's a reason Thatcher knew her lead was a problem (yes it was a different system too).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Just spoke to a @BorisJohnson supporter who hopes the number of MPs calling for him to go will be under 100. At that rate the MP thinks he will be fine. But the MP fears 120 no votes which means PM would struggle. If it is 150 or more no votes then the PM “is finished”
    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533781685141217284

    The 'just 1 vote' stuff is probably bluster. There's a reason Thatcher knew her lead was a problem (yes it was a different system too).
    It's quite effective bluster, though. Say he wins by 10. What do his opponents do to force him out? They could change the rules and force another vote. say he then wins by 8, and remains defiant. What then? There comes a point where even the Parliamentary party will get fed up with being asked the dame thing until they get the "right" answer, as they always accused the EU of doing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    Scott_xP said:

    👀 Another Tory MP on Govt payroll texts to say: 'Rebels are confident of 133'.

    That's the threshold at which Boris Johnson fares worse than Theresa May.

    TMay won her confidence vote by 63%... and even then stood down as party leader 6 months later.

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1533786870819209221

    True, but rebels should be wary of thinking theyll get another go so soon. May quit as her government was paralysed, leading to electoral humiliation. Are they prepared in 6-12 months to bring government to a halt?

    This could be it - only wound him and all you might achieve is him bleeding all over the party for 2 years. Like Corbyn.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    There's another western leader who even more richly deserves the order of the boot.

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1533750041449488387
    The German government is not supplying tanks to Ukraine because it fears that Ukrainian troops could use them to invade Russia, reported Spiegel, citing its sources.

    The bit in the linked article that I question is - "{Germany sent} 1,500 Strela anti-aircraft missiles."

    If Germanys sent any shoulder launched Russian missiles, they would be 30 years old. 30 year old solid rocket fuel is lethally dangerous unless proven otherwise.
    Probably.
    If properly stored, some solid propellant motors have a shelf life of up to 25 years, but the reported condition of these didn't indicate they'd been particularly well looked after - and 30 years is more than pushing it.
    One small crack in the grain and you'd be redoing Sir Hiram Maxim at Plumstead....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    Jonathan said:

    When was the last time someone became PM without having held one of the great offices of state or Leader of the Opposition? We have to go back quite a long way I think.

    Arthur Balfour is the last one.
    Campbell-Bannerman, Cameron and MacDonald only had LOTO experience
    Balfour was Leader of the Opposition in the House of Commons from 1892-95 and First Lord of the Treasury from 1895-1902.
This discussion has been closed.