If he loses and there's a leadership election it will be interesting to see where the ideological cleavages end up being.
I don't think it will be a re-run of the Brexit battles. Too soon - the most we can expect is for one or two of the candidates to make warm noises about changing the tone, not ditching the protocol, and looking for some quick wins on things like passport queues. Otherwise they'll all say what they think the grassroots want to hear.
Lockdown scepticism would have featured heavily a few months ago, with the Steve Baker wing noisily making this a big issue and throwing their weight behind Mark Harper, but that's a busted flush now. Nobody cares about lockdowns or restrictions anymore.
Russia-Ukraine will be consensus all round.
Culture war: I expect the more "moderate" candidates will bemoan the obsession of the ancien regime with deportations to Rwanda, Channel 4 privatisation, imperial measures and so on. I don't expect anyone to be particularly vocally in favour of the JRM/Nadine/Priti approach on these though.
The economy and cost of living. There's not on the surface a huge divide. But this seems like the most likely source of difference. I foresee a renewed battle between the Thatcherites and Keynesians. Lots of talk of balancing the books, no nanny state, government can't be expected to do everything etc. I doubt that line will win but there are a number of backbenchers openly regretting what they see as the "socialist" interventionist instincts of Boris and his crew.
Though the obvious standard bearer for this would have been Sunak but he's pretty clearly compromised on this.
Anyway, if Boris is kicked out his successor should not be a current Cabinet Minister, all of whom are tainted by being in his Cabinet.
The Tory party needs complete renewal, best done in opposition, frankly. But if it is to have even a chance of doing it while in power it needs fresh faces at the top - and even so it is a hell of a hospital pass.
Merely shuffling someone up to the top post just won't be good enough.
I feel the same way about Starmer, who was tainted by being in Corbyn's cabinet.
Although given a choice between Starmer and Johnson as people (disregarding their parties), it would be grey and boring every time...
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before. Was asked if the PM would win the vote? He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question. Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossible
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.
The reason they did better in Aberdeenshire is because they put up the correct number of candidates in the large STV wards. Nothing to do with BJ being less unpopular there. Everything to do with local incompetence at the previous council elections.
Your first sentence demonstrates why STV is a lousy voting system.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
That JRM quote will be getting a lot of outings today:
PM has c160 MPs on payroll and c200 backbench MPs. So losing support of 100+ MPs means PM has lost support of majority to his backbenches. When TM lost 117 votes JRM said a “terrible result & she should resign”. For PM, JRM says he only needs to win by one vote to stay
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
Others here are far better informed on current events, but I dare say I'm in the top 10% when it comes to the Diadochi* era.
*Successors (to Alexander the Great).
It puts things in perspective - some on here will indicate how terrible it will be for Johnson if he loses, but as @Leon pointed out he could be earning £10mil+ in the near future which would pay for a lot of wallpaper for the current Mrs Johnson.
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before. Was asked if the PM would win the vote? He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question. Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossible
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.
The reason they did better in Aberdeenshire is because they put up the correct number of candidates in the large STV wards. Nothing to do with BJ being less unpopular there. Everything to do with local incompetence at the previous council elections.
Your first sentence demonstrates why STV is a lousy voting system.
You need to look at Sinn Fein in the Republic for a demonstration of that - Sinn Fein got the number of winnable candidates wrong and so they have about 5 to 10 less TDs than they would otherwise have had.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.
Anyone got a Spreadsheet tracker of support/opposing Boris? I have seen a now defunct 1922 letters one but I wondered if anyone was running a VONC one for tonight?
I wonder how many Tory MPs' votes this evening will be influenced by the betting odds? There must be a fair number who want either (a) Boris to win the VONC comfortably or (b) Boris to lose the VONC. These MPs don't want a narrow win for Boris as that damages the party without resolving the issue of his leadership. So how will they decide to cast their vote? Maybe on the basis of the latest betting?!
The Conservative Party must now decide if it wishes to change its leader. Because of the situation in Ukraine this was not a debate I wanted to have now but under our rules we must do that.
Having been trusted with power, Conservative MPs know in our hearts we are not giving the British people the leadership they deserve. We are not offering the integrity, competence and vision necessary to unleash the enormous potential of our country.
And because we are no longer trusted by the electorate, who know this too, we are set to lose the next general election.
Anyone who believes our country is stronger, fairer & more prosperous when led by Conservatives should reflect that the consequence of not changing will be to hand the country to others who do not share those values. Today’s decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
More than that, perhaps
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
Do you really think EVERYONE'S motivation is money? In my experience most people who have jobs and abilities well above the ordinary have no obvious interest in it at all. Being rich will not be the tiniest compensation for losing his position as Prime Minister
We've heard a lot of whinged from his people about money woes. It matters to him a lot.
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
Yep I think this is a very dangerous moment for the Conservatives. If the MPs don't have the courage to remove him then I think we are going to see 2 x disastrous by-elections AND a crushing defeat at the General Election.
So they have this one chance, today, to save the party from a huge and deserved defeat, followed by a decade out of power.
I still think they will go like the Gadarene swine over the precipice. And we will look back and tell them they only have themselves to blame.
The Tories removed Thatcher in 1990, scraped a win in 1992 and then lost by a landslide in 1997 and were out of power for over a decade.
Boris is the Tories greatest general election winner since Thatcher. Had the Tories kept Thatcher she might also have scraped a win in 1992 or narrowly lost and Heseltine or Major then beaten PM Kinnock in 1997, rather than the party facing slaughter in 1997
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.
PMSL, mumble , mumble , stutter , tripe , tripe , mumble stutter. Fools and tehir money are easily parted.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.
If he loses and there's a leadership election it will be interesting to see where the ideological cleavages end up being.
I don't think it will be a re-run of the Brexit battles. Too soon - the most we can expect is for one or two of the candidates to make warm noises about changing the tone, not ditching the protocol, and looking for some quick wins on things like passport queues. Otherwise they'll all say what they think the grassroots want to hear.
Lockdown scepticism would have featured heavily a few months ago, with the Steve Baker wing noisily making this a big issue and throwing their weight behind Mark Harper, but that's a busted flush now. Nobody cares about lockdowns or restrictions anymore.
Russia-Ukraine will be consensus all round.
Culture war: I expect the more "moderate" candidates will bemoan the obsession of the ancien regime with deportations to Rwanda, Channel 4 privatisation, imperial measures and so on. I don't expect anyone to be particularly vocally in favour of the JRM/Nadine/Priti approach on these though.
The economy and cost of living. There's not on the surface a huge divide. But this seems like the most likely source of difference. I foresee a renewed battle between the Thatcherites and Keynesians. Lots of talk of balancing the books, no nanny state, government can't be expected to do everything etc. I doubt that line will win but there are a number of backbenchers openly regretting what they see as the "socialist" interventionist instincts of Boris and his crew.
Though the obvious standard bearer for this would have been Sunak but he's pretty clearly compromised on this.
In the coming civil war, the dividing line will not be brexit. It will be the hard target of 2050 for Net Zero.
The hard target means that the conservatives (and indeed all the major parties), have nothing much to offer the electorate but sacrifices. Boilers, cars, flights etc.
Its striking that in the current living standards crisis, nobody is offering a vision of a time when living standards will improve. That's because many of our politicians know they cannot deliver such a thing in the next decade.
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
Yep I think this is a very dangerous moment for the Conservatives. If the MPs don't have the courage to remove him then I think we are going to see 2 x disastrous by-elections AND a crushing defeat at the General Election.
So they have this one chance, today, to save the party from a huge and deserved defeat, followed by a decade out of power.
I still think they will go like the Gadarene swine over the precipice. And we will look back and tell them they only have themselves to blame.
The Tories removed Thatcher in 1990, scraped a win in 1992 and then lost by a landslide in 1997 and were out of power for over a decade.
Boris is the Tories greatest general election winner since Thatcher
Was
I almost hope he clings on, or even wins well, just to prove what a fool you are to believe this. Although I suspect you will vanish when it happens.
Boris will survive today unless we see Cabinet ministers finally stand up against this totally adrift Prime Ministers. For months we’ve seen and heard them tie themselves in knots defending the indefensible. One or two of them could redeem themselves today by resigning. https://twitter.com/montie/status/1533716310785462278
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before. Was asked if the PM would win the vote? He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question. Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossible
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.
The reason they did better in Aberdeenshire is because they put up the correct number of candidates in the large STV wards. Nothing to do with BJ being less unpopular there. Everything to do with local incompetence at the previous council elections.
Quite. In 2017 we voted 40% Conservative first choice. This year is was 34%.
I know as a Champagne Centrist you dont give a fuck about austerity but any Tory except Boris will return to austerity
As a non-champagne leftie even I can see that we must get public spending under control. We can't leave this rampant State spending to go on expanding like this. Inflation is a terrible scourge for everyone, rich or poor alike.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
More than that, perhaps
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
£15+? We could have a whipround.
A fiver from me if I don't have to actually listen.
Do any of these book payments actually pay back for the publisher?
Did the publisher make a profit overall from Blair or Campbell's books? I recall Campbell being reported declaring windily that his diary was "my pension". Did it work, or has he made more from his London house?
Generally these books make a loss. But that is seen as worth it because the publisher can boast “well we’re publishing the prime minister/president”. This then attracts other business and other (perhaps more commercial) authors. And of course the editors and suits at the publishers get to rub shoulders with important historical figures. Which is fun
There are exceptions however. My guess is that Thatchers memoirs might have made money because she was so important - they sold and they keep selling over time. Al Campbell’s diaries probably made a good profit too. As they are so entertaining
I’m pretty sure Blair did not earn back his huge advance. And I believe Brown’s memoirs totally cratered
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
Not happening, if Boris goes then Patel, Raab and Truss and Gove will all certainly stand hoping to get through to the membership and win even if Hunt or Sunak win the MPs vote.
"Smarkets: 1.83 Wins, 2.04 Loses" I posted an hour ago.
Significant move. Now:
1.38 Wins, 3.50 Loses
Compared to on here the outside world seems pretty confident that Johnson will win this.
I think you have to take a bit of that 3.5?
Now;
Wins1.28 Loses 3.85
Probably like the Brexit vote, when the dumb money was influenced by London voting for Remain/Cabinet members sticking with Boris.....
It's also a secret ballot so they can say whatever they like at 2pm and then vote the opposite. That's why I think Boris is much more likely to lose than win, 3.5 is value.
Anyone got a Spreadsheet tracker of support/opposing Boris? I have seen a now defunct 1922 letters one but I wondered if anyone was running a VONC one for tonight?
Brown's memoirs are quite funny for the way in which he unintentionally shows that he wasn't suited to the job and was also much more intellectually shallow than his reputation.
Any odds on how long his marriage will last if he goes or is that tasteless?
You answered your own question - you cannot help yourself
I don't know why you are so precious about Johnson's current marriage. Wedding vows from what is clearly already in the public domain mean nothing whatsoever to Mr Johnson. He is just a serial philanderer.
Maybe I am old fashioned but I am uncomfortable with attacking a marriage especially with 2 young children
Mrs Johnson is well aware of the man's track record. Johnson has already himself indicated "buyer's remorse" (his words) over the marriage which confirms Roger's skepticism.
Let's hope he has already had his last hurrah and he falls today.
@PennyMordaunt Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
Anyone got a Spreadsheet tracker of support/opposing Boris? I have seen a now defunct 1922 letters one but I wondered if anyone was running a VONC one for tonight?
Here's the big cabinet confidence tracker: 24 of 30 already out of the blocks to back the PM. Most have been very speedy (it's as if they know we're watching them)
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
Yep I think this is a very dangerous moment for the Conservatives. If the MPs don't have the courage to remove him then I think we are going to see 2 x disastrous by-elections AND a crushing defeat at the General Election.
So they have this one chance, today, to save the party from a huge and deserved defeat, followed by a decade out of power.
I still think they will go like the Gadarene swine over the precipice. And we will look back and tell them they only have themselves to blame.
The Tories removed Thatcher in 1990, scraped a win in 1992 and then lost by a landslide in 1997 and were out of power for over a decade.
Boris is the Tories greatest general election winner since Thatcher. Had the Tories kept Thatcher she might also have scraped a win in 1992 or narrowly lost and Heseltine or Major then beaten PM Kinnock in 1997, rather than the party facing slaughter in 1997
Hahaha, John Major got the Tories more votes in 1992 than any other party in the entire history of British politics, before OR SINCE. More than Johnson, More than Blair. More than Thatcher or Callaghan or Atlee or Churchill.
I’m sorry to have to resign as the PM’s Anti-Corruption Tsar but, after his reply last week about the Ministerial Code, it’s pretty clear he has broken it. That’s a resigning matter for me, and it should be for the PM too. Here’s my letter to him explaining why. https://twitter.com/JohnPenroseNews/status/1533753928483061760/photo/1
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.
They will. But he's not a good public speaker. He's no orator.
He is not an orator but he is a good speaker for entertainment purposes, and people pay to hear ex PMs even if they are not entertaining. He will do very well.
His speaking style much better for after dinner than the house of commons. In fact, with a few jokes thrown in, it's not far of Ronnie Corbett's delivery style -essentially one long sentence.
Yes, he'll do very well financially post-PM. Better if he leaves now, indeed, than if he hangs on and is then thrashed in a GE.
imo Boris would probably like to have done a Harold Wilson with an unexpected retirement at 60 (so in 2024).
Brown's memoirs are quite funny for the way in which he unintentionally shows that he wasn't suited to the job and was also much more intellectually shallow than his reputation.
His went into the 10p bin the day after publishing
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
More than that, perhaps
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
£15+? We could have a whipround.
A fiver from me if I don't have to actually listen.
Do any of these book payments actually pay back for the publisher?
Did the publisher make a profit overall from Blair or Campbell's books? I recall Campbell being reported declaring windily that his diary was "my pension". Did it work, or has he made more from his London house?
Perhaps not but don't underestimate the prestige factor. The PM's memoirs shows that you are the most important publishing house in the country. Same for the rush for serialisation rights in the papers; Rupert Murdoch will not be expecting to double the ST's circulation when he signs the cheque.
Others here are far better informed on current events, but I dare say I'm in the top 10% when it comes to the Diadochi* era.
*Successors (to Alexander the Great).
It puts things in perspective - some on here will indicate how terrible it will be for Johnson if he loses, but as @Leon pointed out he could be earning £10mil+ in the near future which would pay for a lot of wallpaper for the current Mrs Johnson.
It’s certainly possible but I do wonder if, in reality, Johnson has tarnished his own brand to the point that the lecture / book circuit won’t be the gravy train he’s expecting.
I know as a Champagne Centrist you dont give a fuck about austerity but any Tory except Boris will return to austerity
As a non-champagne leftie even I can see that we must get public spending under control. We can't leave this rampant State spending to go on expanding like this. Inflation is a terrible scourge for everyone, rich or poor alike.
Vacancies in the NHS are at record levels.
Pay is already too low as a result of 12 years of pay restraint
A further period of Austerity would see the NHS as we knew it collapse.
Same applies to other Public Services too
Johnson is more of a Socialist than SKS
Rachel Reeves is on record as being tougher on those on benefits than the Tories
Brown's memoirs are quite funny for the way in which he unintentionally shows that he wasn't suited to the job and was also much more intellectually shallow than his reputation.
I got the same vibe from Cameron’s. I had this vague idea that despite his glibness, complacency and clumsy mistakes he was REALLY clever. On the evidence of that book - both the writing style and what he admits (sometimes inadvertently, like Brown) he really is not that smart, after all
Yes, but perhaps and improvement on our last GE which was a choice between dumb and dumber. Dull seems like a very appealing political way forward. Politics is/should be dull. It is not a fecking circus, or at least, shouldn't be.
JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.
Indeed. The only conceivable route to an early election is a mortally wounded Boris going to the country for a new mandate to, er, reintroduce the groat.
Our thoughts must go to Labour HQ where they are having a very sweaty day waiting to see if the next GE will be very much harder than it looks at moment.
So. What's the call then? I think he's gone. Why? No positive reason to vote for him. It's all negatives. And vaccine rollout (in the past). No one has put forward a single argument about anything at all good to come in the future. It's fear. So gone. I have no great confidence in this.
No he wins. 170 unemployables are on the payroll (amazingly enough). Add in the dozen or so Bullingdon Boys who think making Nadine Dorries Culture Secretary was the funniest prank of all time and he's over the line.
I think we may actually end up in a situation where votes for are much lower than pledges to vote for and Boris will lose on that basis. My best guess atm is 120-150 in favour and the rest against but heading into the vote we'll have somewhere around 160-180 declared in favour.
JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.
It looks desperate . No new leader is going to come in and then risk being shown the door within months .
Boris did
He had a big poll lead . So it wasn’t really a gamble .
Well you would hope whoever takes over will get the Con poll lead back immediately, otherwise what's the point for the Conservatives going to all this trouble to remove their leader?
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
"John Penrose @JohnPenroseNews · 10m I’m sorry to have to resign as the PM’s Anti-Corruption Tsar but, after his reply last week about the Ministerial Code, it’s pretty clear he has broken it. That’s a resigning matter for me, and it should be for the PM too. Here’s my letter to him explaining why."
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
I think "no members vote" would be sensible option (time of crisis, strong and stable...err...). However, I suspect that a Tory Corbyn will stand.
Comments
I don't think it will be a re-run of the Brexit battles. Too soon - the most we can expect is for one or two of the candidates to make warm noises about changing the tone, not ditching the protocol, and looking for some quick wins on things like passport queues. Otherwise they'll all say what they think the grassroots want to hear.
Lockdown scepticism would have featured heavily a few months ago, with the Steve Baker wing noisily making this a big issue and throwing their weight behind Mark Harper, but that's a busted flush now. Nobody cares about lockdowns or restrictions anymore.
Russia-Ukraine will be consensus all round.
Culture war: I expect the more "moderate" candidates will bemoan the obsession of the ancien regime with deportations to Rwanda, Channel 4 privatisation, imperial measures and so on. I don't expect anyone to be particularly vocally in favour of the JRM/Nadine/Priti approach on these though.
The economy and cost of living. There's not on the surface a huge divide. But this seems like the most likely source of difference. I foresee a renewed battle between the Thatcherites and Keynesians. Lots of talk of balancing the books, no nanny state, government can't be expected to do everything etc. I doubt that line will win but there are a number of backbenchers openly regretting what they see as the "socialist" interventionist instincts of Boris and his crew.
Though the obvious standard bearer for this would have been Sunak but he's pretty clearly compromised on this.
Although given a choice between Starmer and Johnson as people (disregarding their parties), it would be grey and boring every time...
Tories 2022: "There were no boos"
And those he suspects of voting against, whatever the evidence
Landslide defeat I am thinking
PM has c160 MPs on payroll and c200 backbench MPs. So losing support of 100+ MPs means PM has lost support of majority to his backbenches. When TM lost 117 votes JRM said a “terrible result & she should resign”. For PM, JRM says he only needs to win by one vote to stay
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1533749591295901697
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1533736317296812032|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jun/06/boris-johnson-confidence-vote-graham-brady-tory-mps-live
Wallace maybe too
I have clearly been idling away the last few years by spending a lot of time on here.
Many thanks to OHG, TSE and Robert for keeping this excellent forum up and running.
His successor will be more right wing.
I know as a Champagne Centrist you dont give a fuck about austerity but any Tory except Boris will return to austerity
But will they listen?
Boris is the Tories greatest general election winner since Thatcher. Had the Tories kept Thatcher she might also have scraped a win in 1992 or narrowly lost and Heseltine or Major then beaten PM Kinnock in 1997, rather than the party facing slaughter in 1997
Hunt
Truss
Sunak
Wallace
Gove
Tugendhat
Raab
Patel
Mordaunt
Zahawi
The hard target means that the conservatives (and indeed all the major parties), have nothing much to offer the electorate but sacrifices. Boilers, cars, flights etc.
Its striking that in the current living standards crisis, nobody is offering a vision of a time when living standards will improve. That's because many of our politicians know they cannot deliver such a thing in the next decade.
I almost hope he clings on, or even wins well, just to prove what a fool you are to believe this. Although I suspect you will vanish when it happens.
But for the country's sake he must go.
https://twitter.com/montie/status/1533716310785462278
Wins1.28
Loses 3.85
I genuinely think that if Jeremy Hunt becomes Tory leader, a lot of voters are going to struggle to tell the difference between him and Keir Starmer
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1533750899855831040
There are exceptions however. My guess is that Thatchers memoirs might have made money because she was so important - they sold and they keep selling over time. Al Campbell’s diaries probably made a good profit too. As they are so entertaining
I’m pretty sure Blair did not earn back his huge advance. And I believe Brown’s memoirs totally cratered
https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1533750318902792192
Let's hope he has already had his last hurrah and he falls today.
Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78
https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1533727319466119169
Here's the big cabinet confidence tracker: 24 of 30 already out of the blocks to back the PM. Most have been very speedy (it's as if they know we're watching them)
The biggest surprise so far is that Nadine Dorries wasn't the first https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1533742094128492544/photo/1
https://twitter.com/StevenJNorris/status/1533736124534992897?s=20&t=-WIslu2QmSMjDGGMSQR8iw
Pay is already too low as a result of 12 years of pay restraint
A further period of Austerity would see the NHS as we knew it collapse.
Same applies to other Public Services too
Johnson is more of a Socialist than SKS
Rachel Reeves is on record as being tougher on those on benefits than the Tories
Pile on to Fatboy loss
A new PM is under zero obligation to call a General Election.
Does JRM think everyone is stupid or what? Where do they get this crap?
Who do you think would be the most dangerous opponent for Labour as Boris Johnson's successor?
Speaking honestly, I think Penny Mordaunt.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1533754889888743424
Well. Spank my ass and call me Charlie.
@JohnPenroseNews
·
10m
I’m sorry to have to resign as the PM’s Anti-Corruption Tsar but, after his reply last week about the Ministerial Code, it’s pretty clear he has broken it. That’s a resigning matter for me, and it should be for the PM too. Here’s my letter to him explaining why."