Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.
They will. But he's not a good public speaker. He's no orator.
How will he know who voted against him? It’s a secret ballot, so I’d expect public declarations of loyalty that are not necessarily matched by the way the votes are cast.
He won't know. He might suspect, but he won't know.
But lashing out with threats that can't be enacted fairly is what people do when they are losing control of the situation.
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before. Was asked if the PM would win the vote? He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question. Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossible
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.
R4 - contrasting views between Fraser Nelson “rebels have moved too soon” and Sebastian Payne “unless it’s a big win Johnson is not out of danger as 1922 can change rules”. If there is contest, coronation may be preferred.
I dont get the 'moved too soon' argument. If someone is still for him the by elections wont change their minds. It might not succeed, but it's been rumbling for months, it was time to put up.
I agree - this feels more like a groundswell than a concerted rebellion with someone in the wings pulling strings. Enough had had enough.
If he does go before the next General Election I think that booing will come to be remembered as the moment. It was so unexpected. A royalist crowd, a royalist crowd, booing him spontaneously. As a tory MP has remarked today, 'that is our core vote.'
It summed up the visceral anger (and hurt) out there at the moment and if they don't lance this boil they will suffer a crushing defeat at the next General Election and deservedly so.
Today is the day they must come to their senses, clean up the act, and go forward. They could still pull off a Major '92.
And Major 1992 led to the party's worst landslide defeat since 1832 in 1997 and 13 years in opposition.
Arguably it might have been better for the party to keep Thatcher as PM in 1990, then even if she narrowly lost in 1992 the party would have been less divided and she and her supporters less bitter and who knows Heseltine or Major might then have been Leader of the Opposition anyway and beaten PM Kinnock at the 1997 General Election
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.
It's the perfect contrast for the Monarchy. The serene 70-year stability of a constitutional monarchy compared to the daily internecine squabbling of the elected politicians. It is vindication. "This is why they need us," is what she will be thinking.
Just a quick one for @Leon as I don't have the time to treat this properly, nor am I the person to do so, but the idea that this is all from 'remoaners' is risible.
One of the several core constituencies that Boris Johnson has lost are those who believe the Conservative Party stands, above all, for low taxes and minimal state. I know that there have been extraordinary external circumstances but this Gov't has been gobsmackingly un-Conservative. We have the highest rate of taxation and spending for zillions of years under a CONSERVATIVE Government. It has really pissed people off on the Right, who were jittery anyway because no-one has a clue what he stands for, least of all himself. When you combine that with serial disloyalty (Owen Paterson) you really must understand that the remainer rump really are the least of Johnson's problems.
it would raise my estimation of you (not hard) if you actually read what I SAID rather than what you think I said
I’m claiming that the “frothiest anger and the fiercest glee” at Boris behaviour and potential departure comes from “Remoaner Central”
And it does. Look at the most excited people on here. @Scott_xP is practically ejaculating
Of course there is also anger and disappointment aimed at Boris from multiple other sources, including Leavers. I know this as I am one of them. I voted for Leave, but Boris REALLY has to go now (as I have also said today)
But the really unhinged anti-Boris weirdness comes from Remoaners. No question. And as @williamglenn has noted, some of the extreme types see this as the first step back to Rejoin
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
More than that, perhaps
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
"A leadership candidate who can articulate authentically an agenda of lower taxes and deregulation may bring some ideological clarity to a party that feels lost in a Johnsonian miasma. “At least you know where she stands,” is a phrase that brings back fond memories for many Conservatives and one can imagine it being said about Truss."
Anybody who thinks that Andrew Adonis is representative of pro-European opinion on the left is as out to lunch as anybody who thinks Mark Francois is representative of Brexiteers. They are both spartans, at the opposite ends.
Al, the difference is that we had years of Adonis and Grieve being cast as "moderates" when the reality is that they were anything but. The whole farce of Boris purging the 30 or so "Tory moderates" was ridiculous, they were all hardcore pro-EU nutjobs who would offer up their first born to Junker and Tusk as a sacrifice to get the UK back in the EU.
Is win and then call a snap election for the end of this year.
That doesn't seem like his style. If he wins by at least one vote it'll be business as usual (ie shite) and he won't be going anywhere.
More a pitiless purge of the infidels who came out publicly against him.
There's a non-zero chance of defections if he wins. Lib Dems on high alert.
If he loses, which I hope doesn't happen from a comedy persepective, I don't think he'll quit as an MP either.
He'll continue to trouser the 70 grand a year (or whatever) and while doing his books, speeches and punditry, etc. If he's still on the stage he'll believe that they tory party will turn to him again if things get really shit.
Can he get his US citizenship back? Could he run for something over there?
Now he has renounced his birthright citizenship he has to go through the same procedures as everyone else, which would mean moving there and obtaining it via residency. You can't opt out and then automatically opt back in whenever you feel like it - for what I hope would be obvious reasons.
The Remainers and Theresa May fans will obviously vote against Johnson. The deciding factor will be the Iain Duncan Smith / Charles Walker type of MP. Hard-core Leavers who've reluctantly decided he should go despite having delivered Brexit.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
More than that, perhaps
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
£15+? We could have a whipround.
A fiver from me if I don't have to actually listen.
The Remainers and Theresa May fans will obviously vote against Johnson. The deciding factor will be the Iain Duncan Smith / Charles Walker type of MP. Hard-core Leavers who've reluctantly decided he should go despite having delivered Brexit.
They will be weighing up whether Brexit is in peril if he goes.
The Remainers and Theresa May fans will obviously vote against Johnson. The deciding factor will be the Iain Duncan Smith / Charles Walker type of MP. Hard-core Leavers who've reluctantly decided he should go despite having delivered Brexit.
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his disappointingly obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could command her party no longer.
As an aside for anyone wondering (apologies for not posting sooner), Perdiccas was the regent after Alexander the Great died, but he almost screwed it up utterly by being a bit hesitant and indecisive which gave a loudmouth (and pretty much nobody) Meleager the chance to bait the crowd (heavily armed veteran Macedonian soldiers) and be given authority.
The elite of Alexander's close companions, minus Craterus who was unfortunately absent and Hephaestion who was unfortunately dead, rallied and manage to reassert themselves.
After which Perdiccas had the followers of Meleager trampled to death by elephants as a subtle way of indicating he should probably keep his head down.
Thanks for that - I've been following the thread all morning hoping someone would fill in the background
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before. Was asked if the PM would win the vote? He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question. Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
The Remainers and Theresa May fans will obviously vote against Johnson. The deciding factor will be the Iain Duncan Smith / Charles Walker type of MP. Hard-core Leavers who've reluctantly decided he should go despite having delivered Brexit.
They will be weighing up whether Brexit is in peril if he goes.
I don't think they will be, the membership won't put in any leader that will unwind the TCA. Even if a Hunt character wins they still hold the dagger within Parliament if he starts to backslide.
So we get the VONC and we will know after 8pm this evening if Boris will survive it. My guess is he narrowly willl
Much better Prime Ministers have not survived narrow wins.
Johnson used the Tory party for his own personal advancement, not out of a sense of duty like May or a desire to change Britain like Thatcher. The Tory party returned the compliment. They wanted to get Brexit done and it is. Johnson is now an outright liability to the country and the party. He’s served his purpose.
The Remainers and Theresa May fans will obviously vote against Johnson. The deciding factor will be the Iain Duncan Smith / Charles Walker type of MP. Hard-core Leavers who've reluctantly decided he should go despite having delivered Brexit.
They will be weighing up whether Brexit is in peril if he goes.
How can Brexit be in peril after its already happened .
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before. Was asked if the PM would win the vote? He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question. Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossible
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.
Only messing with you Andy - the point must be correct. Although outside Scotland, more of an individual choice for MPs.
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.
It's the perfect contrast for the Monarchy. The serene 70-year stability of a constitutional monarchy compared to the daily internecine squabbling of the elected politicians. It is vindication. "This is why they need us," is what she will be thinking.
And perhaps she will then be able give Liz Truss some sartorial advice.
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.
I would imagine she is sitting back having a nice cup of tea with the broadest of grins
Here's the big cabinet confidence tracker: 24 of 30 already out of the blocks to back the PM. Most have been very speedy (it's as if they know we're watching them)
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare all things Boris for eternity and that this will see the final crushing of the Remoaners of his feverish mind.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
Maggie Thatcher had people willing to tell her that she needed to go.
Bozo neither has those people nor enough brains to see that now is the time to quietly go and earn so actual money.
So. What's the call then? I think he's gone. Why? No positive reason to vote for him. It's all negatives. And vaccine rollout (in the past). No one has put forward a single argument about anything at all good to come in the future. It's fear. So gone. I have no great confidence in this.
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before. Was asked if the PM would win the vote? He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question. Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.
They were dire. The more you look at them, the worse you realise they were. Ross bears as much responsibility as Johnson.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
More than that, perhaps
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
Do you really think EVERYONE'S motivation is money? In my experience most people who have jobs and abilities well above the ordinary have no obvious interest in it at all. Being rich will not be the tiniest compensation for losing his position as Prime Minister
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.
I would imagine she is sitting back having a nice cup of tea with the broadest of grins
Whilst practising 'another one bites the dust' on the spoons.
Eek twin A mentioned that this morning. I'm guessing he went straight from the office to see something - he was working in Treasury North on Tuesday / Wednesday last week.
Personally we avoid the Vue - Odeon screens 2 and 3 are nicer if I can't be arsed to drive. The Empire at Catterick (in Rishi's constituency) has better seating and screen layout if we can be bothered to drive...
And @Leon you are wrong. Now that we have a VONC the best possible hope for those of us on the Left is that he wins narrowly.
A wounded animal, lurching from side to side for the next two years.
For the sake of this country though I'm afraid we need a swift kill.
p.s. for the avoidance of doubt, if I were to list 50 things that the Government should sort out, rejoining the EU would not even feature on it. I'm genuinely sad to say that this has become an obsessive topic of yours.
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
Johnson's toast then.
He's toast already. The issue is getting him out of the toaster.
And too many backbench MPs are tentatively wiggling the butterknife around in the hope that it will somehow spring him, without electrocuting themselves.
Just heard Suella Braverman. Can anyone solve the mystery of how she became a Cabinet Minister?
She was in the queue ahead of Nadine ?
We had a discussion on here about Dorries a few days ago where I pointed out she is not thick as some were suggesting, and actually she is best interpreted as performing a provocative act, which people happily fall for. But Braverman is in another category altogether. Not thick either, but happy and willing to humiliate herself and destroy her professional reputation and dignity as a barrister in pursuit of a political career that seems to be going absolutely nowhere. This is something that would be better filed under 'mysteries'.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.
They will. But he's not a good public speaker. He's no orator.
He is not an orator but he is a good speaker for entertainment purposes, and people pay to hear ex PMs even if they are not entertaining. He will do very well.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
More than that, perhaps
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
Do you really think EVERYONE'S motivation is money? In my experience most people who have jobs and abilities well above the ordinary have no obvious interest in it at all. Being rich will not be the tiniest compensation for losing his position as Prime Minister
We've heard a lot of whinged from his people about money woes. It matters to him a lot.
I see that PM supporters are doing the "he got the big calls right" shtick and that Partygate was somehow a "small call".
This is the "it's only a small lie" fallacy. No, it's the fact of a lie which is important. Partygate was not a "small call". What can be bigger than integrity, after all?
So we get the VONC and we will know after 8pm this evening if Boris will survive it. My guess is he narrowly willl
Much better Prime Ministers have not survived narrow wins.
Johnson used the Tory party for his own personal advancement, not out of a sense of duty like May or a desire to change Britain like Thatcher. The Tory party returned the compliment. They wanted to get Brexit done and it is. Johnson is now an outright liability to the country and the party. He’s served his purpose.
Exactly right. He's done his job and now he and we can move on. There's little chance a Tory successor would undo his achievements.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.
They will. But he's not a good public speaker. He's no orator.
He is not an orator but he is a good speaker for entertainment purposes, and people pay to hear ex PMs even if they are not entertaining. He will do very well.
His speaking style much better for after dinner than the house of commons. In fact, with a few jokes thrown in, it's not far of Ronnie Corbett's delivery style -essentially one long sentence.
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
More than that, perhaps
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before. Was asked if the PM would win the vote? He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question. Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossible
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.
The reason they did better in Aberdeenshire is because they put up the correct number of candidates in the large STV wards. Nothing to do with BJ being less unpopular there. Everything to do with local incompetence at the previous council elections.
Looks like Boris will sail through, if the odds are correct. I personally think he will win, and it will just draw a line under partygate, and all the questions about his leadership. But the odds might tighten as the day goes on. Wouldn't be suprised if we get another similar vote before his time as PM is up though.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
More than that, perhaps
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
£15+? We could have a whipround.
A fiver from me if I don't have to actually listen.
Do any of these book payments actually pay back for the publisher?
Did the publisher make a profit overall from Blair or Campbell's books? I recall Campbell being reported declaring windily that his diary was "my pension". Did it work, or has he made more from his London house?
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
Johnson's toast then.
He's toast already. The issue is getting him out of the toaster.
And too many backbench MPs are tentatively wiggling the butterknife around in the hope that it will somehow spring him, without electrocuting themselves.
Exactly.
Will we hear how many letters? My guesstimate for the *floor* for the anti-Johnson vote is 2 x the number of letters.
I don't think the Tory MPs realise that this VONC marks the last hurrah of a different, bygone era. One that we are leaving behind for ever. Is that a good thing? We shall see.
Is it 1914 again or something?
Either it might, or @TOPPING may be clinging on to the past!
Exciting. Maybe.
It's still the bygone era whilst Labour retains the Union link, and the Greens put Big Government before being green. And arguably until electoral reform.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either
Boris, for all his faults, still has a lot of star power and is very charismatic. After the dust has settled and people forget his failures they will be queuing up to get him in as a guest speaker.
They will. But he's not a good public speaker. He's no orator.
He is not an orator but he is a good speaker for entertainment purposes, and people pay to hear ex PMs even if they are not entertaining. He will do very well.
His speaking style much better for after dinner than the house of commons. In fact, with a few jokes thrown in, it's not far of Ronnie Corbett's delivery style -essentially one long sentence.
Yes, he'll do very well financially post-PM. Better if he leaves now, indeed, than if he hangs on and is then thrashed in a GE.
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.
It's the perfect contrast for the Monarchy. The serene 70-year stability of a constitutional monarchy compared to the daily internecine squabbling of the elected politicians. It is vindication. "This is why they need us," is what she will be thinking.
I wonder if there is a secret gallery in Buckingham Palace where the Royal Taxidermist has mounted facsimiles of former PMs' heads on the walls for Her Majesty to gloat over?
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare all things Boris for eternity and that this will see the final crushing of the Remoaners of his feverish mind.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
Maggie Thatcher had people willing to tell her that she needed to go.
Bozo neither has those people nor enough brains to see that now is the time to quietly go and earn so actual money.
And the longer he stays, the more his value drifts down with his popularity and hair coverage.
He won't be poor, but he could be reduced to going on I'm A Celebrity in a bid for a redemption arc.
So. What's the call then? I think he's gone. Why? No positive reason to vote for him. It's all negatives. And vaccine rollout (in the past). No one has put forward a single argument about anything at all good to come in the future. It's fear. So gone. I have no great confidence in this.
My head says he stays because the PCP are a bunch of quivering, obsequious cowards.
Yet my heart says he goes, because as you say there is simply no good reason to vote for him. I've been away in France for the Whit holiday so missed all the daft royal-bothering but was surprised to read this morning that he was booed by a bunch of cap-doffing monarchists... aren't they supposed to be Tories?
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.
I would imagine she is sitting back having a nice cup of tea with the broadest of grins
Whilst practising 'another one bites the dust' on the spoons.
True. Her first Prime Minister was Winston Churchill, the Conservative Party should at least ensure that the comparison with her last Prime Minister isn't such a clunkingly obvious metaphor for the relative decline of the Country's power and prestige.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
More than that, perhaps
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
£15+? We could have a whipround.
A fiver from me if I don't have to actually listen.
I'll happily chip in my share* of the suggested £15m/year if he goes quietly into the night.
*let's have it as a ringfenced levy on NI. Even then, still under £5/year for me, surely.
Edit: Actually, that lets the pensioners off again, even though Boris is largely their fault. Maybe a yearly levy on pension payments (from pensions to pensioners).
Looks like Boris will sail through, if the odds are correct. I personally think he will win, and it will just draw a line under partygate, and all the questions about his leadership. But the odds might tighten as the day goes on. Wouldn't be suprised if we get another similar vote before his time as PM is up though.
Beginning to look like Nazca with the number of lines drawn.
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before. Was asked if the PM would win the vote? He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question. Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossible
DRoss will change his mind several times in the lead up to a VONC; I think this may allude to that eventuality.
So we get the VONC and we will know after 8pm this evening if Boris will survive it. My guess is he narrowly willl
Much better Prime Ministers have not survived narrow wins.
Johnson used the Tory party for his own personal advancement, not out of a sense of duty like May or a desire to change Britain like Thatcher. The Tory party returned the compliment. They wanted to get Brexit done and it is. Johnson is now an outright liability to the country and the party. He’s served his purpose.
The better example is the 1989 Conservative leadership election, where Maggie squashed the stalking donkey like a bug.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
Anyway, if Boris is kicked out his successor should not be a current Cabinet Minister, all of whom are tainted by being in his Cabinet.
The Tory party needs complete renewal, best done in opposition, frankly. But if it is to have even a chance of doing it while in power it needs fresh faces at the top - and even so it is a hell of a hospital pass.
Merely shuffling someone up to the top post just won't be good enough.
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
So. What's the call then? I think he's gone. Why? No positive reason to vote for him. It's all negatives. And vaccine rollout (in the past). No one has put forward a single argument about anything at all good to come in the future. It's fear. So gone. I have no great confidence in this.
My head says he stays because the PCP are a bunch of quivering, obsequious cowards.
Yet my heart says he goes, because as you say there is simply no good reason to vote for him. I've been away in France for the Whit holiday so missed all the daft royal-bothering but was surprised to read this morning that he was booed by a bunch of cap-doffing monarchists... aren't they supposed to be Tories?
You will have missed Any Questions from, of all places, the Isle of Wight then. It was quite revealing. Open hostility, laughter and ridicule for the oft-trotted lines of argument.
The Conservative Party must now decide if it wishes to change its leader. Because of the situation in Ukraine this was not a debate I wanted to have now but under our rules we must do that.
Having been trusted with power, Conservative MPs know in our hearts we are not giving the British people the leadership they deserve. We are not offering the integrity, competence and vision necessary to unleash the enormous potential of our country.
And because we are no longer trusted by the electorate, who know this too, we are set to lose the next general election.
Anyone who believes our country is stronger, fairer & more prosperous when led by Conservatives should reflect that the consequence of not changing will be to hand the country to others who do not share those values. Today’s decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
Hedging your bets again!
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
I'm hedging my bets because I don't know what will happen.
Do you?
No. I reckon he wins but with 100 or more rebels but I haven't a scoobies to be honest.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his rather obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could not command her party any longer.
A sensible rule of thumb is that you can at least double the letter writers.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
There's also a significant chance he gets routed because MPs are beginning to look at their own majorities two years out from the next election. The likes of IDS, Mike Freer and MPs across London and the South East are nervously eyeing up their LD opponents and may use this opportunity to try and get a leadership bounce and 2023 election where they stand a fighting chance of keeping their seats vs 2024 with Boris where they will 100% lose.
MPs also have the prospect of spending the next 12 months or more apologising to their electorate for the PM. It's degrading - and degrading their majorities at the same time.
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
Yep I think this is a very dangerous moment for the Conservatives. If the MPs don't have the courage to remove him then I think we are going to see 2 x disastrous by-elections AND a crushing defeat at the General Election.
So they have this one chance, today, to save the party from a huge and deserved defeat, followed by a decade out of power.
I still think they will go like the Gadarene swine over the precipice. And we will look back and tell them they only have themselves to blame.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
More than that, perhaps
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together
£15+? We could have a whipround.
A fiver from me if I don't have to actually listen.
I'll happily chip in my share* of the suggested £15m/year if he goes quietly into the night.
*let's have it as a ringfenced levy on NI. Even then, still under £5/year for me, surely.
Edit: Actually, that lets the pensioners off again, even though Boris is largely their fault. Maybe a yearly levy on pension payments (from pensions to pensioners).
If he loses and there's a leadership election it will be interesting to see where the ideological cleavages end up being.
I don't think it will be a re-run of the Brexit battles. Too soon - the most we can expect is for one or two of the candidates to make warm noises about changing the tone, not ditching the protocol, and looking for some quick wins on things like passport queues. Otherwise they'll all say what they think the grassroots want to hear.
Lockdown scepticism would have featured heavily a few months ago, with the Steve Baker wing noisily making this a big issue and throwing their weight behind Mark Harper, but that's a busted flush now. Nobody cares about lockdowns or restrictions anymore.
Russia-Ukraine will be consensus all round.
Culture war: I expect the more "moderate" candidates will bemoan the obsession of the ancien regime with deportations to Rwanda, Channel 4 privatisation, imperial measures and so on. I don't expect anyone to be particularly vocally in favour of the JRM/Nadine/Priti approach on these though.
The economy and cost of living. There's not on the surface a huge divide. But this seems like the most likely source of difference. I foresee a renewed battle between the Thatcherites and Keynesians. Lots of talk of balancing the books, no nanny state, government can't be expected to do everything etc. I doubt that line will win but there are a number of backbenchers openly regretting what they see as the "socialist" interventionist instincts of Boris and his crew.
Though the obvious standard bearer for this would have been Sunak but he's pretty clearly compromised on this.
Anyway, if Boris is kicked out his successor should not be a current Cabinet Minister, all of whom are tainted by being in his Cabinet.
The Tory party needs complete renewal, best done in opposition, frankly. But if it is to have even a chance of doing it while in power it needs fresh faces at the top - and even so it is a hell of a hospital pass.
Merely shuffling someone up to the top post just won't be good enough.
I feel the same way about Starmer, who was tainted by being in Corbyn's cabinet.
Although given a choice between Starmer and Johnson as people (disregarding their parties), it would be grey and boring every time...
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before. Was asked if the PM would win the vote? He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question. Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.
Given there are only 6 of them, that would technically be impossible
5 out of 6 to be more precise, with perhaps David Duguid staying on board because the Tories did much better in Aberdeenshire.
The reason they did better in Aberdeenshire is because they put up the correct number of candidates in the large STV wards. Nothing to do with BJ being less unpopular there. Everything to do with local incompetence at the previous council elections.
Your first sentence demonstrates why STV is a lousy voting system.
Comments
Do you?
But lashing out with threats that can't be enacted fairly is what people do when they are losing control of the situation.
Arguably it might have been better for the party to keep Thatcher as PM in 1990, then even if she narrowly lost in 1992 the party would have been less divided and she and her supporters less bitter and who knows Heseltine or Major might then have been Leader of the Opposition anyway and beaten PM Kinnock at the 1997 General Election
I’m claiming that the “frothiest anger and the fiercest glee” at Boris behaviour and potential departure comes from “Remoaner Central”
And it does. Look at the most excited people on here. @Scott_xP is practically ejaculating
Of course there is also anger and disappointment aimed at Boris from multiple other sources, including Leavers. I know this as I am one of them. I voted for Leave, but Boris REALLY has to go now (as I have also said today)
But the really unhinged anti-Boris weirdness comes from Remoaners. No question. And as @williamglenn has noted, some of the extreme types see this as the first step back to Rejoin
We could have a whipround.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/06/liz-truss-most-likely-next-tory-leader
"A leadership candidate who can articulate authentically an agenda of lower taxes and deregulation may bring some ideological clarity to a party that feels lost in a Johnsonian miasma. “At least you know where she stands,” is a phrase that brings back fond memories for many Conservatives and one can imagine it being said about Truss."
Now he has renounced his birthright citizenship he has to go through the same procedures as everyone else, which would mean moving there and obtaining it via residency. You can't opt out and then automatically opt back in whenever you feel like it - for what I hope would be obvious reasons.
It's now approaching 3, which I think is quite attractive.
Nothing I'm not prepared to lose, though.
One thing I'd say to everyone is if he wins beware the initial response. @Leon will be his usual breathless self and declare the final crushing of the Remoaners of his disappointingly obsessive mind. But a win with a sizeable rebellion will be Pyrrhic.
I write this because Margaret Thatcher famously came down the steps in Paris to announce she would fight on. The reality though was that she could command her party no longer.
Johnson used the Tory party for his own personal advancement, not out of a sense of duty like May or a desire to change Britain like Thatcher. The Tory party returned the compliment. They wanted to get Brexit done and it is. Johnson is now an outright liability to the country and the party. He’s served his purpose.
Guilt is a terrible thing
Here's the big cabinet confidence tracker: 24 of 30 already out of the blocks to back the PM. Most have been very speedy (it's as if they know we're watching them)
The biggest surprise so far is that Nadine Dorries wasn't the first https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1533742094128492544/photo/1
Bozo neither has those people nor enough brains to see that now is the time to quietly go and earn so actual money.
I think he's gone. Why? No positive reason to vote for him. It's all negatives. And vaccine rollout (in the past). No one has put forward a single argument about anything at all good to come in the future. It's fear.
So gone.
I have no great confidence in this.
Others here are far better informed on current events, but I dare say I'm in the top 10% when it comes to the Diadochi* era.
*Successors (to Alexander the Great).
Releasing something significant in the next couple of hours.
You've heard of #Partygate. But are you ready for #Deathgate?
#NoConfidence #ToryMps #GrahamBrady
Coffey says she believes Johnson is trustworthy. "He delivers on the promises he's made to people," she insists...
Eek twin A mentioned that this morning. I'm guessing he went straight from the office to see something - he was working in Treasury North on Tuesday / Wednesday last week.
Personally we avoid the Vue - Odeon screens 2 and 3 are nicer if I can't be arsed to drive. The Empire at Catterick (in Rishi's constituency) has better seating and screen layout if we can be bothered to drive...
A wounded animal, lurching from side to side for the next two years.
For the sake of this country though I'm afraid we need a swift kill.
p.s. for the avoidance of doubt, if I were to list 50 things that the Government should sort out, rejoining the EU would not even feature on it. I'm genuinely sad to say that this has become an obsessive topic of yours.
So, I expect it to be between 110 votes and 200 votes, but where I don't know.
I don't want to split the difference. I suspect it's one or the other.
And it will depend on how the ERG split - do they go JRM or Steve Baker?
I don't have any insight but I am not sure the mood fits that.
Could be insider speculation of coruse.
This is the "it's only a small lie" fallacy. No, it's the fact of a lie which is important. Partygate was not a "small call". What can be bigger than integrity, after all?
On acrania, I see (elsewhere - I won't inflict it here) that people are still debating the Schleswig-Holstein question.
I personally think he will win, and it will just draw a line under partygate, and all the questions about his leadership.
But the odds might tighten as the day goes on.
Wouldn't be suprised if we get another similar vote before his time as PM is up though.
Did the publisher make a profit overall from Blair or Campbell's books? I recall Campbell being reported declaring windily that his diary was "my pension". Did it work, or has he made more from his London house?
Will we hear how many letters? My guesstimate for the *floor* for the anti-Johnson vote is 2 x the number of letters.
It will be interesting to see whether the poll ratings take a further plunge when people see that we're still stuck with him.
Exciting. Maybe.
It's still the bygone era whilst Labour retains the Union link, and the Greens put Big Government before being green. And arguably until electoral reform.
He won't be poor, but he could be reduced to going on I'm A Celebrity in a bid for a redemption arc.
Hold on to that thought.
Yet my heart says he goes, because as you say there is simply no good reason to vote for him. I've been away in France for the Whit holiday so missed all the daft royal-bothering but was surprised to read this morning that he was booed by a bunch of cap-doffing monarchists... aren't they supposed to be Tories?
*let's have it as a ringfenced levy on NI. Even then, still under £5/year for me, surely.
Edit: Actually, that lets the pensioners off again, even though Boris is largely their fault. Maybe a yearly levy on pension payments (from pensions to pensioners).
He may rally them round although his last appearance did not go down well. He has the capability to win them over.
Zelensky will be praying for a Boris win
Less than a year later, she was out.
Boris to lose. Wallace will quickly emerge as the unifying compromise candidate. Probably no members vote.
I guess he’d think he needs to make Truss Chancellor. He’d want someone he can trust in defence, most likely Tugenhat. And he’d offer Hunt his old job of foreign sec back if he wanted it. Someone like Steve Baker in a prominent job to keep the Brexit balance, as JRM would be out on his arse too. Sunak off to California by the next election. Johnson Chiltern Hundreds by the end of summer.
Last Unionist poll lead in Scotland: 4-7 August 2014 (YouGov/The Scottish Sun).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fegra1FLI6o
The Tory party needs complete renewal, best done in opposition, frankly. But if it is to have even a chance of doing it while in power it needs fresh faces at the top - and even so it is a hell of a hospital pass.
Merely shuffling someone up to the top post just won't be good enough.
Tory MPs today have a chance to lance the boil festering in their re-election prospects.
It was quite revealing. Open hostility, laughter and ridicule for the oft-trotted lines of argument.
Having been trusted with power, Conservative MPs know in our hearts we are not giving the British people the leadership they deserve. We are not offering the integrity, competence and vision necessary to unleash the enormous potential of our country.
And because we are no longer trusted by the electorate, who know this too, we are set to lose the next general election.
Anyone who believes our country is stronger, fairer & more prosperous when led by Conservatives should reflect that the consequence of not changing will be to hand the country to others who do not share those values. Today’s decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1533748389891940352
So they have this one chance, today, to save the party from a huge and deserved defeat, followed by a decade out of power.
I still think they will go like the Gadarene swine over the precipice. And we will look back and tell them they only have themselves to blame.
I don't think it will be a re-run of the Brexit battles. Too soon - the most we can expect is for one or two of the candidates to make warm noises about changing the tone, not ditching the protocol, and looking for some quick wins on things like passport queues. Otherwise they'll all say what they think the grassroots want to hear.
Lockdown scepticism would have featured heavily a few months ago, with the Steve Baker wing noisily making this a big issue and throwing their weight behind Mark Harper, but that's a busted flush now. Nobody cares about lockdowns or restrictions anymore.
Russia-Ukraine will be consensus all round.
Culture war: I expect the more "moderate" candidates will bemoan the obsession of the ancien regime with deportations to Rwanda, Channel 4 privatisation, imperial measures and so on. I don't expect anyone to be particularly vocally in favour of the JRM/Nadine/Priti approach on these though.
The economy and cost of living. There's not on the surface a huge divide. But this seems like the most likely source of difference. I foresee a renewed battle between the Thatcherites and Keynesians. Lots of talk of balancing the books, no nanny state, government can't be expected to do everything etc. I doubt that line will win but there are a number of backbenchers openly regretting what they see as the "socialist" interventionist instincts of Boris and his crew.
Though the obvious standard bearer for this would have been Sunak but he's pretty clearly compromised on this.
Although given a choice between Starmer and Johnson as people (disregarding their parties), it would be grey and boring every time...
Tories 2022: "There were no boos"
And those he suspects of voting against, whatever the evidence
Landslide defeat I am thinking