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The confidence vote takes place tonight – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 13 in General
The confidence vote takes place tonight – politicalbetting.com

I'm probably reading too much in to the word 'exceeded' and the fact the vote is taking place tonight! https://t.co/8qKNLTzvKZ

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,433
    I reckon he loses. Tory MPs must know the game is up, surely?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970
    Time for Boris to get into the bin
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,687
    I hope that Johnson is kicked out today. That may mean a far less toxic Tory leader and less chance of Labour winning, but you cannot want the best for this country and want him to remain in charge. It's that simple.

    But I suspect he wins. I so want to be wrong, though.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,696

    I reckon he loses. Tory MPs must know the game is up, surely?

    All No 10 has to do is to send around photos of Mr R-M, Ms Dorries, Ms Patel, etc. etc. with no comment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,258
    Strong theme coming through is that many Tory MPs feel PM is dragging the Conservative Party down and destroying its reputation as well as their own. They cite his “character” and “lack of integrity” as the problem and don’t think that’s going to change #Tories
    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1533713847118446598
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,598
    For some reason I'm reminded of when Perdiccas had Meleager's followers trampled to death by elephants.

    Fourth century BC Macedonian leadership elections were simply wild.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,465
    @trussliz
    The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

    He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

    We must now focus on economic growth.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,433
    Carnyx said:

    I reckon he loses. Tory MPs must know the game is up, surely?

    All No 10 has to do is to send around photos of Mr R-M, Ms Dorries, Ms Patel, etc. etc. with no comment.
    Yes, but who put them in the Cabinet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513
    edited June 6
    The Norman resignation is definitely more interesting than most, for laying out a variety of policy reasons behind it as well well as personal. Not just one but several, and quite bullish about endangering the union, trying to be presidential etc.

    Its interesting as I've no real idea how the party might change under a different leader, andche gives hints of what he at least wants besides
    just Boris gone.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277
    edited June 6

    I reckon he loses. Tory MPs must know the game is up, surely?

    I think he will as well. With no clear cut replacement now Sunak has issues every Tory MP can vote for their own unicorn leader and policy..

    That wasn't true earlier this year where there would have been an incentive for none Sunak supporters to keep Bozo in place.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,894
    Come on Tory MPs, let's get this over and done with. Whoever comes next simply can't be worse than the Boris.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,987

    Gamblers and PBers of longstanding, OGH is on holiday in Europe at the moment.

    So nothing happening of note?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970
    Things panning out as @Big_G_NorthWales predicted last week.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,696

    Carnyx said:

    I reckon he loses. Tory MPs must know the game is up, surely?

    All No 10 has to do is to send around photos of Mr R-M, Ms Dorries, Ms Patel, etc. etc. with no comment.
    Yes, but who put them in the Cabinet?
    And why do you think?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513
    Never forget Rees-Mogg and Raab both said a leader who wins a vote of confidence should still resign if a lot vote against them.

    If Boris wins I want to see how they squirm around that. They will, but I want to see it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,827
    I hope he wins.

    I think it could be close.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,334

    @trussliz
    The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

    He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

    We must now focus on economic growth.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

    ....whilst installing the phone lines....
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,158
    MaxPB said:

    Come on Tory MPs, let's get this over and done with. Whoever comes next simply can't be worse than the Boris.

    Populism demands a new PM. Ironic really.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,908

    @trussliz
    The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

    He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

    We must now focus on economic growth.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

    ... by supporting the ballot paper-printing industry.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,124

    @trussliz
    The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

    He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

    We must now focus on economic growth.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

    It's a secret ballot...
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,922
    I doubt 180 Tory MPs want to vote for Johnson.

    His chance of survival is in the fact that there’s no one else obvious to vote for - so a VONC might effectively be a vote for Truss or some other wingbat. It would be a leap into the unknown.

    Always keep ahold of nurse / For fear of finding something worse…
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    edited June 6
    Discussion on pros & cons of swift ballot:

    George Eaton @georgeeaton

    It’s in Boris Johnson’s interests for the confidence vote to be held tonight as it gives the rebels less time to persuade enough Tory MPs to join them (180 needed to remove him).

    Rob Ford 💙💛@robfordmancs
    Maybe. Or maybe a vote held when mood is feverish and Number 10 hasn’t had time to talk people down is in rebels’ interests. Right answer may depend on who has planned for this moment better.

    Rob Ford 💙💛@robfordmancs 1m
    (And the people planning Save Big Dog (Again) are the same ones who organised the Owen Patterson farce and so many other chaotic u-turns that most observers have lost count. U-turns and humiliations that many MPs may have at the front of their minds today


    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1533713513985736704
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

    "One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

    A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,334
    kle4 said:

    The Norman resignation is definitely more interesting than most, for laying out a variety of policy reasons behind it as well well as personal. Not just one but several, and quite bullish about endangering the union, trying to be presidential etc.

    His ridiculing of the "dash for nuclear" - as a former Energy Minster - is worthy of note.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,777
    edited June 6
    MaxPB said:

    Come on Tory MPs, let's get this over and done with. Whoever comes next simply can't be worse than the Boris.

    I fear that we cannot trust the tory membership not to elect someone who is worse frankly.

    Much as I want Johnson gone the lack of an obvious, decent, quality heir apparent makes me worry we are looking at another Clarke vs IDS feck up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,465
    edited June 6

    @trussliz
    The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

    He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

    We must now focus on economic growth.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

    ....whilst installing the phone lines....
    "He has...

    We must..."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,258
    “Jacob Rees-Mogg, who led calls for the Tory confidence vote, said losing the support of a third of her MPs was a "terrible result for the Prime Minister" & called on her to resign”

    A reminder to Jacob Rees-Mogg about the resignation threshold he set for Theresa May in Dec 2018.

    https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1533714685840789505
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,334

    I doubt 180 Tory MPs want to vote for Johnson.

    His chance of survival is in the fact that there’s no one else obvious to vote for - so a VONC might effectively be a vote for Truss or some other wingbat. It would be a leap into the unknown.

    Always keep ahold of nurse / For fear of finding something worse…

    Unless "nurse" is political oblivion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513

    I hope he wins.

    I think it could be close.

    May won, what, 60-40, when the most divisive policy in a generation was tearing them apart? Boris really should be able to at least match that.

    I'm going 70-30.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,777

    @trussliz
    The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

    He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

    We must now focus on economic growth.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

    Translation: my team are busy buying up more smartphones and registering 'Liz4leader' type URLs as we speak.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,598
    edited June 6
    Ironic that, at the end of the Platinum Jubilee, the Conservatives might finish off the Queen's 16th Prime Minister. Ahem, 14th, think I must've miscounted.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,258
    CUT OUT AND KEEP: I've been crunching numbers in case of a vote of no-confidence to compare results
    If the rebels get:
    121 votes: Johnson will have done as badly % wise as John Major in 1995
    133 votes: Worse than May in 2018
    147 votes: Worse than Thatcher v Heseltine in 1990

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1533142632167358464
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,937
    My ideal is a relatively safe pair of hands able to govern effectively and take the Conservatives gracefully into the spell in opposition that they desperately need. Hunt fits the bill. The defence secretary is another.

    The worst case is lurching to an extreme or electing an ego trip merchant. Patel, Mogg or Truss. The damage they would do to the country would be immense.



  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,258

    Ironic that, at the end of the Platinum Jubilee, the Conservatives might finish off the Queen's 16th Prime Minister.

    Perfect end to the celebrations, as I said last night
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861

    If Boris wins, Rishi gets the sack in the reshuffle
    If Boris loses, Rishi gets the sack in the reshuffle

    Why not just resign?

    Fascinating to see who replaces him. He was a wee superstar when he took office, seemingly out of the blue. We all know that didn’t last.

    Next Chancellor:
    Rachel Reeves 6.4
    Liz Truss 7
    Nadhim Zahawi 9.8
    Kwasi Kwarteng 12.5
    Steve Barclay 13
    Sajid Javid 13.5
    Michael Gove 15
    Alok Sharma 15
    Dominic Raab 17
    Jeremy Hunt 17.5
    20 bar
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,334

    kle4 said:

    The Norman resignation is definitely more interesting than most, for laying out a variety of policy reasons behind it as well well as personal. Not just one but several, and quite bullish about endangering the union, trying to be presidential etc.

    Its interesting as I've no real idea how the party might change under a different leader, andche gives hints of what he at least wants besides
    just Boris gone.

    Jesse Norman's savaging of current government policies is more withering and effective than anything Labour has come up with.
    Sadly.
    A case of the Conservative Party providing both Government and Opposition....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,908
    The Queen will need to return to Buckingham Palace in case she needs to receive Boris's resignation.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,007

    For some reason I'm reminded of when Perdiccas had Meleager's followers trampled to death by elephants.

    Fourth century BC Macedonian leadership elections were simply wild.

    For some reason*, I'm not.

    (*Mainly because I have never heard of Perdiccas or Meleager; I have heard of elephants though. 😉)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,937

    Ironic that, at the end of the Platinum Jubilee, the Conservatives might finish off the Queen's 16th Prime Minister. Ahem, 14th, think I must've miscounted.

    Another bonus day of celebrations.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 350
    Heathener said:

    Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

    "One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

    A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

    Now that the vote is on I can't think of a reason they would keep him. Even Brexit can't keep his Praetorian Guard from the door.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,465

    @trussliz
    The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

    He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

    We must now focus on economic growth.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

    Translation: my team are busy buying up more smartphones and registering 'Liz4leader' type URLs as we speak.
    Planning the route of the march: "What do we want? Liz Truss for leader! When do we want it? Now!"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,696

    @trussliz
    The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

    He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

    We must now focus on economic growth.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

    Translation: my team are busy buying up more smartphones and registering 'Liz4leader' type URLs as we speak.
    This hasn't been reactivated - but it's being kept warm.

    https://twitter.com/trussforleader
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513

    @trussliz
    The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

    He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

    We must now focus on economic growth.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

    It's a secret ballot...
    All Cabinet Members backed May openly according to wiki, even though their actions not helping her re the Brexit deal indicate they didnt really back her.

    I presume its because they both have to show the leader they are loyal if they win, and because even some who want him gone would want serving cabinet members to show loyalty.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,603
    Any odds on how long his marriage will last if he goes or is that tasteless?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513
    Unpopular said:

    Heathener said:

    Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

    "One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

    A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

    Now that the vote is on I can't think of a reason they would keep him. Even Brexit can't keep his Praetorian Guard from the door.
    They've might fear no one else will succeed so well in the Red Wall.

    However, if they believe he has lost his appeal there a gamble is the only option.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,598
    Mr. Pointer, Perdiccas was the most powerful man in the world.

    Briefly.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,937
    “Liz Truss has the gravitas and temperament to navigate the Ukraine situation “

    Words nobody said ever.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861

    I reckon he loses. Tory MPs must know the game is up, surely?

    You are assuming that they are astute. Evidence for their astuteness is thin on the ground.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,687
    If Tory MPs do not vote to remove Johnson today they irrevocably tie the party to the man. They will be telling the electorate that Johnson is the Conservative party. The electorate is unlikely to be impressed.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 19,430
    Roger said:

    Any odds on how long his marriage will last if he goes or is that tasteless?

    Carrie deserves and could do a lot better
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,144
    I think he wins it and he leads his party into the next GE.

    Throughout this I have always thought that his fate will be decided on the biggest stage at a GE. The 'He is a Winner' title being absolutely destroyed by an electorate that takes its opportunity to punish him and his party.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,124
    kle4 said:

    @trussliz
    The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

    He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

    We must now focus on economic growth.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

    It's a secret ballot...
    All Cabinet Members backed May openly according to wiki, even though their actions not helping her re the Brexit deal indicate they didnt really back her.

    I presume its because they both have to show the leader they are loyal if they win, and because even some who want him gone would want serving cabinet members to show loyalty.
    I agree.

    Certainly for non-leadership candidates, the phrase "a traitor to one king is a traitor to all" springs to mind.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,868
    kle4 said:

    The Norman resignation is definitely more interesting than most, for laying out a variety of policy reasons behind it as well well as personal. Not just one but several, and quite bullish about endangering the union, trying to be presidential etc.

    Its interesting as I've no real idea how the party might change under a different leader, andche gives hints of what he at least wants besides
    just Boris gone.

    Norman who?

    :smile:

    (Morning all)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,258
    Jonathan said:

    “Liz Truss has the gravitas and temperament to navigate the Ukraine situation “

    Words nobody said ever.

    As Conservative leadership questions hang in the Platinum Jubilee air, and no challenger seems to be close to declaring their intentions, @BrunoBrussels brings us this from one diplomat he spoke to this week:

    "To what question will Liz Truss ever be the answer?"

    https://twitter.com/CalumAM/status/1532638875637653506
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 4,686
    kle4 said:

    I hope he wins.

    I think it could be close.

    May won, what, 60-40, when the most divisive policy in a generation was tearing them apart? Boris really should be able to at least match that.

    I'm going 70-30.
    I'm not sure comparisons with Theresa May's VONC are as relevant as they first appear.

    FPT but after the end of it, and on topic:

    Theresa May had not just the payroll vote, but she had people who likely didn't have any confidence in her voting to support her because they didn't want Boris or someone from the ERG to replace her. Most of the Tory MPs in the 2017 Parliament had voted Remain and weren't supporting an ERG-inspired putsch.

    I'm not sure if that factor is there for Boris. If the objection is now personal rather than political divisions, then it becomes much less of a fear of who'd replace him.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,199
    See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

    All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

    It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

    Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,749

    @trussliz
    The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

    He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

    We must now focus on economic growth.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

    Shame it's a secret ballot...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,436
    Well I called this one wrong.
    Didn't think we would have a VoNC.

    Still feel like Johnson survives, but am less certain.

    Odds of us getting someone better than Johnson, I would guess at 75%+.

    Probably the only people worse would be JRM, Priti Patel...? I suppose there are a few national security risks who would be worse too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513

    Gamblers and PBers of longstanding, OGH is on holiday in Europe at the moment.

    Thst Boris let that happen at a critical juncture is just further evidence of incompetence. Who was on Smithson watch?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    If Johnson were to lose tonight, how long wd it take to replace him?
    MPs have 2 models: coronation or contest.
    2019 - full contest over 6 wks while May stayed acting PM
    2016 - coronation in 12 days after Leadsom dropped out.
    Latter option will be tempting but clear dangers too


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533716636284370944

    Jesse Norman on R4
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,696
    edited June 6

    @trussliz
    The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

    He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.

    We must now focus on economic growth.


    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914

    She's going to look pretty silly if Johnson loses 359-0.
    [deleted - duff source]/

    ...One would expect the result to be 358-1 for obvious reasons (ie the Member for Uxbridge would support the PM).
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,158
    Leon said:

    See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

    All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

    It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

    Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

    I think the desire to get rid of Boris comes from all sides of the party.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,007
    edited June 6
    Heathener said:

    Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

    "One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

    A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

    I've just seen the snippet that Johnson was booed at Morito.

    I assume they mean Moro (Morito is the tapas bar offshoot). I've eaten there, it's very good, but definitely a hangout of the liberal well-to-do. What possessed him to think of eating there? He was bound to come a cropper.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970
    Leon said:

    See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

    All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

    It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

    Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

    Yes yes yes, whatever you need to say, whomever you need to blame to justify your support for Boris. We get it. It's not you, it's us. Thoughts and prayers for you at this difficult time. You'll get through it.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,124
    Scott_xP said:

    Jonathan said:

    “Liz Truss has the gravitas and temperament to navigate the Ukraine situation “

    Words nobody said ever.

    As Conservative leadership questions hang in the Platinum Jubilee air, and no challenger seems to be close to declaring their intentions, @BrunoBrussels brings us this from one diplomat he spoke to this week:

    "To what question will Liz Truss ever be the answer?"

    https://twitter.com/CalumAM/status/1532638875637653506
    Not sure Bruno has the swing vote.

    Truss lining up as the "Boris without Boris" candidate. She would then want to solidify MP's votes (if it comes to it) from the right of the party as well, and stare down Hunt, Javid or Sunak in the final ballot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513
    Leon said:

    See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

    All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

    It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

    Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

    When you are really angry at something and a figurehead is changed does it mollify you? Targets switch.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,908
    edited June 6
    Betfair has a market, Boris to resign before end June 30th?

    Note that this refers to Boris announcing that he intends to resign, not when he actually leaves office.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.199792840

    Currently:
    Yes 3
    No 1.39

    ETA with all bookmakers, check the rules to see if they are talking about announcements or departures, and as prime minister or party leader.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,696

    Heathener said:

    Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

    "One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

    A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

    I've just seen the snippet that Johnson was booed at Morito.

    I've been there, it's very good, but definitely a hangout of the liberal well-to-do. What possessed him to think of eating there? He was bound to come a cropper.
    Did they refuse his credit card or something?
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 350
    kle4 said:

    Unpopular said:

    Heathener said:

    Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

    "One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

    A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

    Now that the vote is on I can't think of a reason they would keep him. Even Brexit can't keep his Praetorian Guard from the door.
    They've might fear no one else will succeed so well in the Red Wall.

    However, if they believe he has lost his appeal there a gamble is the only option.
    That's the only one I can think of, but it's very tenuous. With a swing against the Tories nationally, the idea that the Red Wall can be held is fanciful. That said, the MPs there might not think anyone else offers them such good odds of holding their seats.

    Despite my earlier post, I suspect he'll clinch it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,158
    rkrkrk said:

    Well I called this one wrong.
    Didn't think we would have a VoNC.

    Still feel like Johnson survives, but am less certain.

    Odds of us getting someone better than Johnson, I would guess at 75%+.

    Probably the only people worse would be JRM, Priti Patel...? I suppose there are a few national security risks who would be worse too.

    JRM and Patel have nil chance so I wouldn't worry. Many are concerned about Truss (maybe a tad unfairly) and I expect MPs to organise so that she isn't in the final two. My best guess, still, is Hunt and Wallace.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,912
    Leon said:

    See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

    All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

    It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

    Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

    I wonder what effect Ukraine has had on them.

    For years they eulogised Germany's political leadership as the 'true leaders of the western world'.

    And now Germany's political leadership is utterly discredited with Boris being shown to have been right.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,388
    edited June 6
    Leon said:

    See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

    All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

    It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

    Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

    Given those calling for him to go include many Tory MPs who were strongly in favour of Brexit your post isn’t backed by facts just more of your unhinged nonsense .
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,160
    Leon said:


    All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

    Simply untrue.

    Perhaps if you spent more time travelling around in THIS country you would have your ear closer to the ground.

    The whole point of this is that it comes from all quarters of the party and indeed all quarters of the public.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,687
    It's just amazing how little the Tories learned from Labour's Corbyn years. The idea that the electorate will shrug its shoulders and forget that it detests Johnson because he has won a leadership vote of confidence is for the fairies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513
    Jonathan said:

    “Liz Truss has the gravitas and temperament to navigate the Ukraine situation “

    Words nobody said ever.

    Johnsons been fine on Ukraine, as I say let him continue to be a representative on it.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,124

    Betfair has a market, Boris to resign before end June 30th?

    Note that this refers to Boris announcing that he intends to resign, not when he actually leaves office.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.199792840

    Currently:
    Yes 3
    No 1.39

    ETA with all bookmakers, check the rules to see if they are talking about announcements or departures, and as prime minister or party leader.

    We're going to do this disaster of a rules market again?

    I'm not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513

    It's just amazing how little the Tories learned from Labour's Corbyn years. The idea that the electorate will shrug its shoulders and forget that it detests Johnson because he has won a leadership vote of confidence is for the fairies.

    People seem to think a) the public dislike divided parties b) if we stop yelling at each other the public will forget how much we are divided.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,937
    Future generations will now expect the defenestration of a PM as the ceremonial climax of a jubilee celebration.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,515
    Leon said:

    See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

    All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

    It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

    Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

    This is a wanky argument even for you. Is Brexit Hard Man Steve Baker a remoaner? There are stacks of leave MPs openly against him.

    Silly boy.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,922
    ..

    If Johnson were to lose tonight, how long wd it take to replace him?
    MPs have 2 models: coronation or contest.
    2019 - full contest over 6 wks while May stayed acting PM
    2016 - coronation in 12 days after Leadsom dropped out.
    Latter option will be tempting but clear dangers too


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533716636284370944

    Jesse Norman on R4

    It has to be a contest, surely? There’s no obvious single candidate for a coronation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,749
    Heathener said:

    Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

    "One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

    A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

    Note that Brady's comments just now suggest that the threshold was crossed before the weekend, but some of those submitting letters asked they be held up until after the Jubilee celebrations.

    So the booing came after the threshold was reached.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,687

    Heathener said:

    Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

    "One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

    A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

    I've just seen the snippet that Johnson was booed at Morito.

    I assume they mean Moro (Morito is the tapas bar offshoot). I've eaten there, it's very good, but definitely a hangout of the liberal well-to-do. What possessed him to think of eating there? He was bound to come a cropper.

    Just one of Johnson's many hypocrisies is to profess to despise what he actually is.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,696
    Graun feed, specially for "Mr J will be safe for a year if he wins" folk:

    "Brady says no further no confidence vote allowed for another year if PM wins - but admits that rule could be changed
    Brady will not say whether he has submitted a letter to himself calling a no confidence vote, but he says it would be an odd thing to do.

    And he says that, while technically it would be possible to change the rules, as they stand now if Boris Johnson wins there will be a year-long “period of grace” during which a further leadership contest cannot take place."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,199
    edited June 6
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

    All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

    It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

    Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

    Yes yes yes, whatever you need to say, whomever you need to blame to justify your support for Boris. We get it. It's not you, it's us. Thoughts and prayers for you at this difficult time. You'll get through it.
    WHuh? Boris did what I wanted him to do: he won the Brexit referendum, he won the Brexit election, he saw off the mad 2nd vote treason, he crushed Corbyn and saved the Labour Party from itself.

    He was also damn good on vaccines and excellent on Ukraine

    But he’s not cut out for the duller plod of day to day PM-ing, he has no strategic vision, and he’s also a bare-faced liar and a total chancer, and after a while that becomes too much

    He did what he was sent to this earth to do, as a politician. His time is up. That is all

    I have not had some Damascene conversion. Boris did a good and necessary job for the UK. But now we need a reset
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277
    Stereodog said:

    Seeing a lot of comments about how not having an obvious alternative leader makes a successful VONC less likely. I'd have thought the opposite because every faction thinks they might have a shot at the big time if Boris goes.

    Yep - everyone can currently see a path in which the Tory party supports all their personal unicorn policies.

    That wasn't the case back in January when Rishi was the odds on favourite.

    Sadly the end membership electorate will vote for the more right wing loonier candidate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121
    Surely, if Johnson goes, we get another Bank Holiday?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,199
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers

    All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners

    It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time

    Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?

    I think the desire to get rid of Boris comes from all sides of the party.
    Sure. But the frothiest rage and fiercest glee can be found at Remoaner Central
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,413
    I'm also of the opinion that all but those with strong personal reasons to back Boris (namely a position almost certain to be lost in new regime) will struggle to find any reason to back him.

    And that is different from the factional and emotional reasons that Thatcher, Major and May won their votes. So although leaders winning VONCs is the strong precedent, I can't settle on that 'most probable' centre point. (He will stay though if he does win, I don't buy win narrowly and go anyway mechanics for Boris).

    I think he loses and heavily. I've not changed my view of a massive 235 votes against landslide.

    Yes, that does go on the side of what I wish to be the case, but I just can't see otherwise.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,007
    Carnyx said:

    Heathener said:

    Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

    "One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

    A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

    I've just seen the snippet that Johnson was booed at Morito.

    I've been there, it's very good, but definitely a hangout of the liberal well-to-do. What possessed him to think of eating there? He was bound to come a cropper.
    Did they refuse his credit card or something?
    Don't be silly, Johnson doesn't actually pay for anything.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,922

    Heathener said:

    Memo circulating amongst Tory MPs listing 13 reasons why Johnson should be ditched.

    "One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.

    A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67

    I've just seen the snippet that Johnson was booed at Morito.

    I assume they mean Moro (Morito is the tapas bar offshoot). I've eaten there, it's very good, but definitely a hangout of the liberal well-to-do. What possessed him to think of eating there? He was bound to come a cropper.
    One of his sons works there.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,112
    Being circulated to MPs in support of Boris:

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1533713550929276928
This discussion has been closed.