Categories
The confidence vote takes place tonight – politicalbetting.com
The confidence vote takes place tonight – politicalbetting.com
I'm probably reading too much in to the word 'exceeded' and the fact the vote is taking place tonight! https://t.co/8qKNLTzvKZ
1
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
But I suspect he wins. I so want to be wrong, though.
https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1533713847118446598
Again.
Fourth century BC Macedonian leadership elections were simply wild.
The Prime Minister has my 100% backing in today's vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.
He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.
We must now focus on economic growth.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914
Its interesting as I've no real idea how the party might change under a different leader, andche gives hints of what he at least wants besides
just Boris gone.
That wasn't true earlier this year where there would have been an incentive for none Sunak supporters to keep Bozo in place.
If Boris wins I want to see how they squirm around that. They will, but I want to see it.
I think it could be close.
His chance of survival is in the fact that there’s no one else obvious to vote for - so a VONC might effectively be a vote for Truss or some other wingbat. It would be a leap into the unknown.
Always keep ahold of nurse / For fear of finding something worse…
George Eaton @georgeeaton
It’s in Boris Johnson’s interests for the confidence vote to be held tonight as it gives the rebels less time to persuade enough Tory MPs to join them (180 needed to remove him).
Rob Ford 💙💛@robfordmancs
Maybe. Or maybe a vote held when mood is feverish and Number 10 hasn’t had time to talk people down is in rebels’ interests. Right answer may depend on who has planned for this moment better.
Rob Ford 💙💛@robfordmancs 1m
(And the people planning Save Big Dog (Again) are the same ones who organised the Owen Patterson farce and so many other chaotic u-turns that most observers have lost count. U-turns and humiliations that many MPs may have at the front of their minds today
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1533713513985736704
"One reason given for removing him is that he was booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral. The memo says this “tells us nothing that data does not”, citing polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.
A Tory MP said: “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed while dining at Morito, a restaurant in east London where his son Theo worked. The Mail on Sunday said the prime minister responded with a “dismissive hand gesture and left”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-memo-lists-reasons-to-ditch-boris-johnson-tg8wrqw67
Much as I want Johnson gone the lack of an obvious, decent, quality heir apparent makes me worry we are looking at another Clarke vs IDS feck up.
We must..."
A reminder to Jacob Rees-Mogg about the resignation threshold he set for Theresa May in Dec 2018.
https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1533714685840789505
I'm going 70-30.
If the rebels get:
121 votes: Johnson will have done as badly % wise as John Major in 1995
133 votes: Worse than May in 2018
147 votes: Worse than Thatcher v Heseltine in 1990
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1533142632167358464
The worst case is lurching to an extreme or electing an ego trip merchant. Patel, Mogg or Truss. The damage they would do to the country would be immense.
Sadly.
Next Chancellor:
Rachel Reeves 6.4
Liz Truss 7
Nadhim Zahawi 9.8
Kwasi Kwarteng 12.5
Steve Barclay 13
Sajid Javid 13.5
Michael Gove 15
Alok Sharma 15
Dominic Raab 17
Jeremy Hunt 17.5
20 bar
(*Mainly because I have never heard of Perdiccas or Meleager; I have heard of elephants though. 😉)
https://twitter.com/trussforleader
I presume its because they both have to show the leader they are loyal if they win, and because even some who want him gone would want serving cabinet members to show loyalty.
However, if they believe he has lost his appeal there a gamble is the only option.
Briefly.
Words nobody said ever.
Throughout this I have always thought that his fate will be decided on the biggest stage at a GE. The 'He is a Winner' title being absolutely destroyed by an electorate that takes its opportunity to punish him and his party.
Certainly for non-leadership candidates, the phrase "a traitor to one king is a traitor to all" springs to mind.
(Morning all)
"To what question will Liz Truss ever be the answer?"
https://twitter.com/CalumAM/status/1532638875637653506
FPT but after the end of it, and on topic:
Theresa May had not just the payroll vote, but she had people who likely didn't have any confidence in her voting to support her because they didn't want Boris or someone from the ERG to replace her. Most of the Tory MPs in the 2017 Parliament had voted Remain and weren't supporting an ERG-inspired putsch.
I'm not sure if that factor is there for Boris. If the objection is now personal rather than political divisions, then it becomes much less of a fear of who'd replace him.
All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners
It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time
Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?
Didn't think we would have a VoNC.
Still feel like Johnson survives, but am less certain.
Odds of us getting someone better than Johnson, I would guess at 75%+.
Probably the only people worse would be JRM, Priti Patel...? I suppose there are a few national security risks who would be worse too.
MPs have 2 models: coronation or contest.
2019 - full contest over 6 wks while May stayed acting PM
2016 - coronation in 12 days after Leadsom dropped out.
Latter option will be tempting but clear dangers too
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533716636284370944
Jesse Norman on R4
...One would expect the result to be 358-1 for obvious reasons (ie the Member for Uxbridge would support the PM).
I assume they mean Moro (Morito is the tapas bar offshoot). I've eaten there, it's very good, but definitely a hangout of the liberal well-to-do. What possessed him to think of eating there? He was bound to come a cropper.
The four-day celebratory weekend should obviously have been held after the PM's defenestration, not before.
Truss lining up as the "Boris without Boris" candidate. She would then want to solidify MP's votes (if it comes to it) from the right of the party as well, and stare down Hunt, Javid or Sunak in the final ballot.
Note that this refers to Boris announcing that he intends to resign, not when he actually leaves office.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.199792840
Currently:
Yes 3
No 1.39
ETA with all bookmakers, check the rules to see if they are talking about announcements or departures, and as prime minister or party leader.
Despite my earlier post, I suspect he'll clinch it.
For years they eulogised Germany's political leadership as the 'true leaders of the western world'.
And now Germany's political leadership is utterly discredited with Boris being shown to have been right.
Perhaps if you spent more time travelling around in THIS country you would have your ear closer to the ground.
The whole point of this is that it comes from all quarters of the party and indeed all quarters of the public.
I'm not.
Silly boy.
So the booing came after the threshold was reached.
"Brady says no further no confidence vote allowed for another year if PM wins - but admits that rule could be changed
Brady will not say whether he has submitted a letter to himself calling a no confidence vote, but he says it would be an odd thing to do.
And he says that, while technically it would be possible to change the rules, as they stand now if Boris Johnson wins there will be a year-long “period of grace” during which a further leadership contest cannot take place."
He was also damn good on vaccines and excellent on Ukraine
But he’s not cut out for the duller plod of day to day PM-ing, he has no strategic vision, and he’s also a bare-faced liar and a total chancer, and after a while that becomes too much
He did what he was sent to this earth to do, as a politician. His time is up. That is all
I have not had some Damascene conversion. Boris did a good and necessary job for the UK. But now we need a reset
That wasn't the case back in January when Rishi was the odds on favourite.
Sadly the end membership electorate will vote for the more right wing loonier candidate.
And that is different from the factional and emotional reasons that Thatcher, Major and May won their votes. So although leaders winning VONCs is the strong precedent, I can't settle on that 'most probable' centre point. (He will stay though if he does win, I don't buy win narrowly and go anyway mechanics for Boris).
I think he loses and heavily. I've not changed my view of a massive 235 votes against landslide.
Yes, that does go on the side of what I wish to be the case, but I just can't see otherwise.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1533713550929276928
Been out walking the dog for an hour. Anything much happened?
Is TSE still in charge?