Ironic that, at the end of the Platinum Jubilee, the Conservatives might finish off the Queen's 16th Prime Minister.
Perfect end to the celebrations, as I said last night
This is definitely the highlight of the jubilee. It is The Biggie that everyone will remember. Just as the Sex Pistols hitting Number One was the clear highlight of the silver jubilee.
God save the Queen A fascist regime They made you a moron Potential H-bomb
God save the Queen She ain't no human being There is no future In England's dreaming
Don't be told about what you want Don't be told about what you need No future, no future, no future for you
God save the Queen We mean it, man We love our Queen God saves
God save the Queen Tourists are money But our figurehead Is not what she seems
God save history God save your mad parade Oh Lord, have mercy! All crimes are paid
When there's no future, how can there be sin? We're the flowers in the dustbin We're the poison in the human machine We're the future, we're the future
God save the Queen We mean it, man We love our Queen God saves
God save the Queen We mean it, man We love our Queen God saves
No future, no future No future, no future No future, no future No future, no future
No future, no future No future, no future No future for you
Songwriting and delivery at its very best. John Lydon is one of England’s national treasures.
The irony being that the Queen continued on and the Sex Pistols imploded.
I suppose Jim Callaghan's 'fascist regime' did lose power less than two years later.
You say imploded but they are back on the telly. Sex Pistols: banned by the BBC; dramatised by Netflix.
To be watched by the middle aged middle class.
The Sex Pistols are now part of the establishment.
Ageing happens to us all eventually.
Before punk the counterculture of the 60s underwent the same process. People who were young then grew up to be the establishment of the future.
The Beatles, Dylan, Doors, Hendrix etc have long been listened to more by establishment figures than revolutionary ones I expect.
After punk, hip hop has become increasingly establishment too.
Punk was really a middle-class phenomenon. Not many 1976-7 working class kids could afford a leather jacket with safety pins or a blue mohican.
Soz but that's total bollocks. Of course there were middle class/poshos involved but the core of it was yer actual working class yoof.
Those who criticise it I'm thinking were busy listening to Boney M or Brotherhood of Man.
If you went to the Marquee, Vortex, 100 Club, Roxy, Music Machine, Hope & Anchor, Dingwalls, Nashville, as well as the larger venues - Roundhouse, Rainbow, Hammersmith Odeon then later Bridge House, etc it was full of "working class kids".
Saw The Clash at the Lyceum in The Strand. I was about 40 and middle-class, but I was very much the exception.
@NadineDorries PM won 80 seat majority, delivered Brexit, drove testing/vaccine delivery prog, introduced furlough, removed all COVID restrictions opening our economy, first leader to assist Ukraine + has delivered lowest unemployment since 1974. Every big decision bang on. He 💯 has my vote.
But Spud-U-Like has come out against. Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire and vocal Brexit supporter, tells the BBC that he will be voting against the PM, saying the public are "exasperated" with Partygate.
He said the row over Boris Johnson breaching lockdown rules and allowing further breaches by his staff is likely to drag on. "I don’t think people are going to forgive and forget," he says.
Bridgen claims that "there has been quite a lot of intimidation within the party to suppress the letters" which triggered the no confidence ballot but says the PM's negative poll rating is a "drag on the ticket".
"It’s not normal for a Conservative PM to be booed outside St Paul’s Cathedral," he says. (BBC)
My ideal is a relatively safe pair of hands able to govern effectively and take the Conservatives gracefully into the spell in opposition that they desperately need. Hunt fits the bill. The defence secretary is another.
The worst case is lurching to an extreme or electing an ego trip merchant. Patel, Mogg or Truss. The damage they would do to the country would be immense.
They could do a lot worse than making Jesse Norman leader. That letter absolutely nailed the clown
Indeed, the only problem Norman faces if Boris wins his vote and carries on. There is nowhere left to go after that note.
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers
All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners
It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time
Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?
That, I think is at the heart of it. Intelligent Brexiteers will recognize that the job now is to focus on un-fucking the things that Johnson's version of Brexit has fucked; and that will necessarily take the wind out of the sails of most Remainers. It's hard to look coherent if you are protesting someone doing more or less what you would recommend yourself; only the ultra-hard-line "pretend it never happened and imagine everyone will agree to us proceeding as if it were still 2016" fruit loops will be left on that particular island.
I'm not for a minute suggesting that there is such as a species as the Intelligent Brexiteer on the Tory benches, but you never know.
I noticed Dan Hannah - an intelligent Brexiteer - was talking about the Single Market at the weekend. He wasn’t suggesting we should rejoin, but the mere fact he used the words is intriguing
With Boris gone it will be easier to have that much-delayed debate as to what Brexit should do, and what it can’t do. Tho whether the Tories are capable of that debate is a different matter
Hannan has always been consistent in his support for the Single Market, he wanted to get out of the political structures and wasn’t particularly bothered by FoM.
He’s however correct in his argument that, now we are out of the SM, the UK needs to proactively take advantage of the opportunities offered by such an arrangement. Expect a candidate in the leadership contest, if we get one, to be pushing this line.
Yes, that’s what I expect, too
As predicted by me on here, it will be Starmer who comes under intense pressure to go for SM/CU membership. And it will accord with his instincts
The distinction between SM and CU will be the end of Starmer if he tries that. CU membership (the lack of, is what causes border friction) is simply not available to non-EU members.
Rejoining SM without CU, simply means accepting both FoM and whatever Macron wants to add to each piece of EU legislation - for very little benefit. It would mean all those people in retail, hospitality and warehouse work, who are now earning £12-£20 an hour, suddenly go back to minimum wage overnight, at huge cost to the government of in-work benefits, and with additional pressure on housing and government services.
As a Lib Dem suppose must hope that Tory MPs don't vote for Borexit
Yes I am terribly conflicted. Up until a few weeks ago I wanted him gone for the good of country. Now there are some slight glimmers of hope for the LDs I'm going all hyufd and starting to put party before country. I am terribly, terribly ashamed of myself.
See, here’s you - @Scott_xP - a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers
All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners
It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time
Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?
That, I think is at the heart of it. Intelligent Brexiteers will recognize that the job now is to focus on un-fucking the things that Johnson's version of Brexit has fucked; and that will necessarily take the wind out of the sails of most Remainers. It's hard to look coherent if you are protesting someone doing more or less what you would recommend yourself; only the ultra-hard-line "pretend it never happened and imagine everyone will agree to us proceeding as if it were still 2016" fruit loops will be left on that particular island.
I'm not for a minute suggesting that there is such as a species as the Intelligent Brexiteer on the Tory benches, but you never know.
I noticed Dan Hannah - an intelligent Brexiteer - was talking about the Single Market at the weekend. He wasn’t suggesting we should rejoin, but the mere fact he used the words is intriguing
With Boris gone it will be easier to have that much-delayed debate as to what Brexit should do, and what it can’t do. Tho whether the Tories are capable of that debate is a different matter
Daniel Hannan is a stupid person's idea of an intelligent Brexiteer.
That quote by Julie Burchill, “PERSON XXXXX is a stupid person’s idea of an intelligent person” has always struck me as the stupid person’s idea of an intelligent aphorism. Interesting that you use it
Boris and co were desperate to avoid a vote. Thst doesn't mean they think they will lose it, but it does suggest to me they know the danger of getting all MPs off the fence via a binary choice. It adds to the number who we know for certain want him gone, which may embolden them to be fractious in future even if he wins.
Another reason I dont buy the 'too soon' argument.
"Smarkets: 1.83 Wins, 2.04 Loses" I posted an hour ago.
Significant move. Now:
1.38 Wins, 3.50 Loses
Compared to on here the outside world seems pretty confident that Johnson will win this.
I think you have to take a bit of that 3.5?
FWIW I find those odds remarkable. There is really only one certainty about today's vote, and all MPs know it. That is that a Boris win of any sort, from 50.5% of the vote to overwhelming support will fail completely to close down the 'Boris' question.
If he wins the Tories carry on with extreme wounds. They cannot gain support from non Tories, and huge groups of trad Tory voters are alienated beyond repair over the Boris question.
Reason therefore suggests that it is massively in the interests of the party and virtually all MPs to risk the change. Obvs it may be worse, but at least there is a chance. With Boris there isn't.
As it is possible that no further chance will come until June 2023 the MPs can and will take the only chance now.
With that reasoning those odds on Boris losing today look value.
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
It's really quite fascinating. All the other Tory votes we've been able to pretty accurately estimate how many votes. Meyer couple of dozen. MT v Heseltine. Win. But by enough? May. Maybe c 100 against. As you say. His support is narrow but deep. Opposition wide but shallow. Could be anything really. I wouldn't be surprised by a landslide either way. Or very close.
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
My sentiments too. At least there's not also the final day of a test match to contend with, or decent weather.
At least 100 will vote against him IMO, which is 28% of the total. Theresa May won her vote by 200 to 117.
It comes down to organisation.
The ERG effectively whipped their bloc against May. Sentiment against Boris can be found in all parts of the party, but I don't know how deep it is.
I expect him to survive but it could easily be a collapse.
It's really quite fascinating. All the other Tory votes we've been able to pretty accurately estimate how many votes. Meyer couple of dozen. MT v Heseltine. Win. But by enough? May. Maybe c 100 against. As you say. His support is narrow but deep. Opposition wide but shallow. Could be anything really. I wouldn't be surprised by a landslide either way. Or very close.
Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?
You would think seeing the PM removed by MPs writing letters would disabuse people of the idea that we have a fascist government, but I'm not hopeful.
Me neither. If Boris goes I reckon the Remoaners might feel a moment of triumph, then a weird bit of depression. Post coitum omne animal tiriste est
Then they will resume normal service, attacking some other figure or institution. Because theirs is a pathology, not a passion
You’re the one that can’t move on from Brexit given your continual droning on about Remoaners ! There is no moment of triumph for Remainers given the UK is out and won’t be going back anytime soon.
There are genuinely lots of people who think Boris is the only thing holding Brexit up and that if he goes, we'll swiftly start rejoining.
That's nuts. Which is not that surprising, given the source
Some closer alignment is likely over time, either under SKS/another Labour leader or a Conservative PM some way down the line. But no Tory is going to win the membership ballot on any kind of rejoin/big change to Brexit platform, not get away with a post-victory reverse ferret with the current set of MPs, I should think.
Betting-wise, I want Johnson to stay. Even personally, I think it might be better for him to stay and have a meltdown at the next GE than to go (that does depend on who the next leader would be). But I certainly don't think Johnson's departure is would deliver the kind of EU relationship (cutting the pointless new red tape) I would like to see before the next GE.
The EU will overplay their hand if a new British PM takes office believing that he or she will be "practical" and fold to all their negotiating lines.
They will continue to misread British politics. You can set your clock by it.
I imagine they're quite bemused by the whole thing and may well hold fire until someone comes to them with some proposals for change. If not, they really are stupid. What was it Bush said? Fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me - you can't get fooled again. Whole legions of EU beaurocrats who would surely rather commit hara-kiri than draft any more EU-UK agreements
The EU will be relieved. Just on a practical level, they found Johnson 'difficult'.
Biden will be happy too. He didn't like Johnson, whatever the public line may have been.
I am backing him today and will continue to back him as we focus on growing the economy, tackling the cost of living and clearing the Covid backlogs.
According to the Beeb 16 of 22 Cabinet members have publicly backed Boris already. I'd be curious who the 6 who haven't yet are.
It's pretty meaningless though.
They are obliged to say so but can still cast a secret ballot against him.
Well they are unless they wish to resign as some where claiming Sunak would/should but that never seemed likely.
That's why it'd be interesting to see who the six are who haven't yet publicly said so. If any of them resigned that would dominate the news for the day, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
I haven't checked who has or hasn't, but in past times it always seems that Patel is one of the last to do so.
I don't think the Tory MPs realise that this VONC marks the last hurrah of a different, bygone era. One that we are leaving behind for ever. Is that a good thing? We shall see.
As an aside for anyone wondering (apologies for not posting sooner), Perdiccas was the regent after Alexander the Great died, but he almost screwed it up utterly by being a bit hesitant and indecisive which gave a loudmouth (and pretty much nobody) Meleager the chance to bait the crowd (heavily armed veteran Macedonian soldiers) and be given authority.
The elite of Alexander's close companions, minus Craterus who was unfortunately absent and Hephaestion who was unfortunately dead, rallied and manage to reassert themselves.
After which Perdiccas had the followers of Meleager trampled to death by elephants as a subtle way of indicating he should probably keep his head down.
I am backing him today and will continue to back him as we focus on growing the economy, tackling the cost of living and clearing the Covid backlogs.
According to the Beeb 16 of 22 Cabinet members have publicly backed Boris already. I'd be curious who the 6 who haven't yet are.
It's pretty meaningless though.
They are obliged to say so but can still cast a secret ballot against him.
Not necessarily meaningless. If a big hitter was to make a point of saying they were going to vote against him they might give themselves a head start in any leadership contest.
I think he loses. The question for me is the manner of his departure. Will it be magnanimous acceptance of the verdict, and good wishes to his successor, or full-on Trumpian gracelessness?
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
My sentiments too. At least there's not also the final day of a test match to contend with, or decent weather.
Lovely sunny day here.
I cannot influence the result. My MP was an early letter writer. Those on the media will have made up their mind. Those who have not are a small minority.
Come back at 8pm for the result.
To contemplate a world without Boris. Or a world where the flush is not strong enough to shift the turd from the pan.
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.
The world in which we grew up is passing away before our eyes. Yet few are seeing it.
Can you enlighten us on what you mean. I assume you're not just talking about the World Of Boris.
This has been posted by several people over the weekend in relation to the Queen. TBH its essentially meaningless, as it could apply to any period really, certainly in the last 150 years the pace of change in society, technology has meant that anyone looking back on their childhood would remember a very different world.
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
I am backing him today and will continue to back him as we focus on growing the economy, tackling the cost of living and clearing the Covid backlogs.
According to the Beeb 16 of 22 Cabinet members have publicly backed Boris already. I'd be curious who the 6 who haven't yet are.
Suicidal for those 16 I'd have thought. Interestingly this latest manoeuvre will have made him even less popular so they will be carrying a particularly bad smell deep into their future careers. Fortunately most of them would be unemployable under any other leader so it wont do them much damage. I'm surprised at Rishi though. One of the very few with both talent and some personal appeal.
My ideal is a relatively safe pair of hands able to govern effectively and take the Conservatives gracefully into the spell in opposition that they desperately need. Hunt fits the bill. The defence secretary is another.
The worst case is lurching to an extreme or electing an ego trip merchant. Patel, Mogg or Truss. The damage they would do to the country would be immense.
They could do a lot worse than making Jesse Norman leader. That letter absolutely nailed the clown
Saying a lot of things that should be crystal clear to anyone watching, but yet which the inner circle seem to be in complete denial about. I really do think they've convinced themselves that "the British people" owe them a debt of gratitude for "getting Brexit done" and "the Vaccines" and "just want them to get on with delivering".
The parallels with the Corbynistas are extensive. Same conviction they are the sole source of truth, same belief against all the evidence that they are born winners and that the British electorate are fully behind them, and same obsession with the idea any opposition to them is some nefarious plot led by shady enemies of the people.
By inner circle I mean the first and possibly second concentric ring around Boris, the rings including:
1. (the King's privy) Dorries, JRM, Priti 2. (the royal bedchamber) Raab, Truss, Gove, Kwarteng, Zahawi 3. (the state rooms) Rishi, Javed, Wallace, Sharma, various others
Then Shapps who just does his thing and routinely shows loyalty to whoever's the latest leader.
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.
I would imagine she is sitting back having a nice cup of tea with the broadest of grins
Bridgen claims that "there has been quite a lot of intimidation within the party to suppress the letters" which triggered the no confidence ballot but says the PM's negative poll rating is a "drag on the ticket".
"It’s not normal for a Conservative PM to be booed outside St Paul’s Cathedral," he says. (BBC)
Indeed. The London Olympic Stadium is the customary venue.
I think if Boris loses he will stick around until the new leader is in place, that would allow him another 9-10 weeks longer as PM to overtake Brown and, more importantly to him, Theresa May in tenure terms. If he chooses to go quietly then the party may be minded to give it to him as well, otherwise he sticks around for two weeks while the MPs rush through and pick for themselves.
Whether Boris wins today or not, it is over. He won't get to GE 2024.
Party-gate has been the most astonishing piece of self-ratnerisation in politics in my lifetime.
If Boris wins tonight he will likely lead the Tories into the next general election. He will be safe for a year and the Tories did so badly in the May 2019 local elections when they lost over 1000 seats, which did for May, they will likely even make a few gains when the seats are up again next year
Whether Boris wins today or not, it is over. He won't get to GE 2024.
Party-gate has been the most astonishing piece of self-ratnerisation in politics in my lifetime.
If Boris wins tonight he will likely lead the Tories into the next general election. He will be safe for a year and the Tories did so badly in the May 2019 local elections when they lost over 1000 seats, which did for May, they will likely even make a few gains when the seats are up again next year
Well, I for one am seriously pissed off with Conservative MPs today.
Returning to work after a four day weekend was always going to be hard. I have to complete tedious paper work for a pre-budget presentation. Now full concentration is now next to impossible. There is a full day of idle, pointless speculation on PB to engage in.
So thanks a bunch Brady and the rest of your miserable lot.
If you’re pissed off, just imagine how the Queen feels.
I would imagine she is sitting back having a nice cup of tea with the broadest of grins
Imagine how Teresa May feels.
And how she will feel as she puts pen to paper sometime between 6pm and 8pm.
I am backing him today and will continue to back him as we focus on growing the economy, tackling the cost of living and clearing the Covid backlogs.
According to the Beeb 16 of 22 Cabinet members have publicly backed Boris already. I'd be curious who the 6 who haven't yet are.
Suicidal for those 16 I'd have thought. Interestingly this latest manoeuvre will have made him even less popular so they will be carrying a particularly bad smell deep into their future careers. Fortunately most of them would be unemployable under any other leader so it wont do them much damage. I'm surprised at Rishi though. One of the very few with both talent and some personal appeal.
Equally suicidal for the 6 who haven't shown loyalty were Bozo to win tonight.
Ironic that, at the end of the Platinum Jubilee, the Conservatives might finish off the Queen's 16th Prime Minister.
Perfect end to the celebrations, as I said last night
This is definitely the highlight of the jubilee. It is The Biggie that everyone will remember. Just as the Sex Pistols hitting Number One was the clear highlight of the silver jubilee.
God save the Queen A fascist regime They made you a moron Potential H-bomb
God save the Queen She ain't no human being There is no future In England's dreaming
Don't be told about what you want Don't be told about what you need No future, no future, no future for you
God save the Queen We mean it, man We love our Queen God saves
God save the Queen Tourists are money But our figurehead Is not what she seems
God save history God save your mad parade Oh Lord, have mercy! All crimes are paid
When there's no future, how can there be sin? We're the flowers in the dustbin We're the poison in the human machine We're the future, we're the future
God save the Queen We mean it, man We love our Queen God saves
God save the Queen We mean it, man We love our Queen God saves
No future, no future No future, no future No future, no future No future, no future
No future, no future No future, no future No future for you
Songwriting and delivery at its very best. John Lydon is one of England’s national treasures.
The irony being that the Queen continued on and the Sex Pistols imploded.
I suppose Jim Callaghan's 'fascist regime' did lose power less than two years later.
You say imploded but they are back on the telly. Sex Pistols: banned by the BBC; dramatised by Netflix.
To be watched by the middle aged middle class.
The Sex Pistols are now part of the establishment.
Ageing happens to us all eventually.
Before punk the counterculture of the 60s underwent the same process. People who were young then grew up to be the establishment of the future.
The Beatles, Dylan, Doors, Hendrix etc have long been listened to more by establishment figures than revolutionary ones I expect.
After punk, hip hop has become increasingly establishment too.
Punk was really a middle-class phenomenon. Not many 1976-7 working class kids could afford a leather jacket with safety pins or a blue mohican.
Soz but that's total bollocks. Of course there were middle class/poshos involved but the core of it was yer actual working class yoof.
Those who criticise it I'm thinking were busy listening to Boney M or Brotherhood of Man.
If you went to the Marquee, Vortex, 100 Club, Roxy, Music Machine, Hope & Anchor, Dingwalls, Nashville, as well as the larger venues - Roundhouse, Rainbow, Hammersmith Odeon then later Bridge House, etc it was full of "working class kids".
Saw The Clash at the Lyceum in The Strand. I was about 40 and middle-class, but I was very much the exception.
Of course if some version of The Clash were to play the Lyceum today (kicking out The Lion King would be a challenge) a 40-yr old would be the youngest person there.
Whether Boris wins today or not, it is over. He won't get to GE 2024.
Party-gate has been the most astonishing piece of self-ratnerisation in politics in my lifetime.
If Boris wins tonight he will likely lead the Tories into the next general election. He will be safe for a year and the Tories did so badly in the May 2019 local elections when they lost over 1000 seats, which did for May, they will likely even make a few gains when the seats are up again next year
I am sorry but he will be out long before GE 24 no matter the result tonight
Is win and then call a snap election for the end of this year.
That doesn't seem like his style. If he wins by at least one vote it'll be business as usual (ie shite) and he won't be going anywhere.
More a pitiless purge of the infidels who came out publicly against him.
There's a non-zero chance of defections if he wins. Lib Dems on high alert.
If he loses, which I hope doesn't happen from a comedy persepective, I don't think he'll quit as an MP either.
He'll continue to trouser the 70 grand a year (or whatever) and while doing his books, speeches and punditry, etc. If he's still on the stage he'll believe that they tory party will turn to him again if things get really shit.
Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?
You would think seeing the PM removed by MPs writing letters would disabuse people of the idea that we have a fascist government, but I'm not hopeful.
Me neither. If Boris goes I reckon the Remoaners might feel a moment of triumph, then a weird bit of depression. Post coitum omne animal tiriste est
Then they will resume normal service, attacking some other figure or institution. Because theirs is a pathology, not a passion
You’re the one that can’t move on from Brexit given your continual droning on about Remoaners ! There is no moment of triumph for Remainers given the UK is out and won’t be going back anytime soon.
There are genuinely lots of people who think Boris is the only thing holding Brexit up and that if he goes, we'll swiftly start rejoining.
His depression will be profound - when the next PM is just as resolute on the EU.
How on earth will Brexit "go"?
The legislation has been passed and we have left. The process to go back will take years even if some mythical new PM started the process to tomorrow.
Clearly his belief is that the public were duped by Johnson into supporting Brexit, and so his fall will lead to the public coming to the realisation that they were duped, and the 5-1 consensus in favour of European integration that he believes is right and proper will reassert itself, leading inevitably to rejoining, etc, etc.
This seems all a way to avoid the realisation that the referendum was lost because the arguments for Remain were poor.
Whether Boris wins today or not, it is over. He won't get to GE 2024.
Party-gate has been the most astonishing piece of self-ratnerisation in politics in my lifetime.
If Boris wins tonight he will likely lead the Tories into the next general election. He will be safe for a year and the Tories did so badly in the May 2019 local elections when they lost over 1000 seats, which did for May, they will likely even make a few gains when the seats are up again next year
I am sorry but he will be out long before GE 24 no matter the result tonight
Not if he wins well tonight AND the CP hold on to one of the two by-election seats.
If he does go before the next General Election I think that booing will come to be remembered as the moment. It was so unexpected. A royalist crowd, a royalist crowd, booing him spontaneously. As a tory MP has remarked today, 'that is our core vote.'
It summed up the visceral anger (and hurt) out there at the moment and if they don't lance this boil they will suffer a crushing defeat at the next General Election and deservedly so.
Today is the day they must come to their senses, clean up the act, and go forward. They could still pull off a Major '92.
Whether Boris wins today or not, it is over. He won't get to GE 2024.
Party-gate has been the most astonishing piece of self-ratnerisation in politics in my lifetime.
Don't forget Paterson It was the combination rather than one punch.
Though the essence of Paterson (Big Dog protects the loyal, the only crime meriting punishment is disagreeing with Big Dog) has been there all along. The curoius thing about Paterson is that it triggered the "that's enough" response that it did. Maybe because a sufficient number of people were fed up with the government anyway, and unwilling to give them the benefit of the doubt any more.
If this is the end (and surely it's now either 10 hours or 10 months to the end- once the question of confidence is out of the box, it never goes back in fully) it will be because of Johnson's character. And whilst the incident showing that up was unknown in the end, it was always going to end something like this.
Even in his honeymoon, people who knew him were pointing out that everyone who deals with Johnson ends up regretting it.
Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next target for their angst?
You would think seeing the PM removed by MPs writing letters would disabuse people of the idea that we have a fascist government, but I'm not hopeful.
Me neither. If Boris goes I reckon the Remoaners might feel a moment of triumph, then a weird bit of depression. Post coitum omne animal tiriste est
Then they will resume normal service, attacking some other figure or institution. Because theirs is a pathology, not a passion
Have you read Jesse Norman's excoriating letter? No mention of Brexit (other than law-breaking on the NI protocol). Just an attack on Boris's useless government, where serious issues are responded to with crap policies like Rwanda, banning noisy protests, privatising Channel 4, a nuclear power station in every town, and so on. He basically says the government has neither mission nor vision, just empty rhetoric.
Yes, I read it, and - as I said below - it is powerful. Unfortunately he nails this government all-too-accurately. Directionless and constantly in campaign mode. Enough
A good letter, certainly. But all this has been known for months and was ... ahem ... predicted by some (me) some time ago.
"if Boris becomes PM, those who work for him know that they cannot expect him to have their backs if it does not suit him, that he is a politician who does what he wants, not what he ought."
I wrote this back in July 2020 - "Johnson likes to be loved but he likes being feared even more. This can get you far in politics, indeed has got him to the top. When that love fades and the fear goes – and they will, one day – his fall will be worth watching. For those who believe that ruthlessness and ambition, untempered by competence and integrity, are dangerous, that day cannot come soon enough."
Tory MPs may finally do the right thing later today but that they chose this charlatan in the first place should not be so quickly forgiven or forgotten.
Anybody who thinks that Andrew Adonis is representative of pro-European opinion on the left is as out to lunch as anybody who thinks Mark Francois is representative of Brexiteers. They are both spartans, at the opposite ends.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
My gut says the snap vote makes it better for BoJo which is why I have greened out of the exit date market but I really, really don't know (which is another reason I have exited the market)
The Platinum Jubilee works for the rebels here. The threshold may have been reached by Tuesday/Wednesday last week, but momentum has had time to build over the weekend.
If the vote goes against Johnson the story will be written that it was the booing that was the tipping point.
I think the betting has to be that Johnson loses. Then I think there will be a real civil war amongst the Tories, as the Brexiters turn on anyone who advocates any vaguely literate economic policy.
So the Lib Dems bemoaning the loss of Johnson will still have plenty of chances to gain advantage in the coming months.
Is win and then call a snap election for the end of this year.
That doesn't seem like his style. If he wins by at least one vote it'll be business as usual (ie shite) and he won't be going anywhere.
More a pitiless purge of the infidels who came out publicly against him.
There's a non-zero chance of defections if he wins. Lib Dems on high alert.
If he loses, which I hope doesn't happen from a comedy persepective, I don't think he'll quit as an MP either.
He'll continue to trouser the 70 grand a year (or whatever) and while doing his books, speeches and punditry, etc. If he's still on the stage he'll believe that they tory party will turn to him again if things get really shit.
I'm not sure his ego would permit that but I like the idea if him and May sticking around sniping at each other.
Or new leader puts May in the Cabinet just to dig in the knife.
Just a quick one for @Leon as I don't have the time to treat this properly, nor am I the person to do so, but the idea that this is all from 'remoaners' is risible.
One of the several core constituencies that Boris Johnson has lost are those who believe the Conservative Party stands, above all, for low taxes and minimal state. I know that there have been extraordinary external circumstances but this Gov't has been gobsmackingly un-Conservative. We have the highest rate of taxation and spending for zillions of years under a CONSERVATIVE Government. It has really pissed people off on the Right, who were jittery anyway because no-one has a clue what he stands for, least of all himself. When you combine that with serial disloyalty (Owen Paterson) you really must understand that the remainer rump really are the least of Johnson's problems.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either
Fraser Nelson on R4 sounds pretty confident that Johnson will win and says the vote has come too early for those who wish to depose him.
I heard Fraser Nelson on the radio maybe last week, maybe before. Was asked if the PM would win the vote? He sounded as if he genuinely was shocked anyone could even ask the question. Confidence is great. Complacency isn't.
I wonder how Douglas Ross will vote.
I suspect 90% of Scottish Tory MPs will vote against him given the local election results.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
I agree with that; he'll be much, much wealthier if he goes than if he stays. He should put himself first, and go.
I don't think the Tory MPs realise that this VONC marks the last hurrah of a different, bygone era. One that we are leaving behind for ever. Is that a good thing? We shall see.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
Boris stays if he wins and he has grounds for a fightback, a Boris 3.0 (or 4.0 etc etc.). I'm not sure I currently see it, but a big change in team could be part of it.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
He will be a 3 year PM forced out after scandal, no way would he get anywhere near Blair and Thatcher level fees on the lecture circuit.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff, a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either
He's interesting and well known. He'll easily make money from the circuit.
Whether Boris wins today or not, it is over. He won't get to GE 2024.
Party-gate has been the most astonishing piece of self-ratnerisation in politics in my lifetime.
If Boris wins tonight he will likely lead the Tories into the next general election. He will be safe for a year and the Tories did so badly in the May 2019 local elections when they lost over 1000 seats, which did for May, they will likely even make a few gains when the seats are up again next year
I am sorry but he will be out long before GE 24 no matter the result tonight
Not if he wins well tonight AND the CP hold on to one of the two by-election seats.
Even if those things happen he still has a talent for finding trouble that will most likely undermine him.
I think it'll be fairly close tonight as undoubtedly many Tory MPs will simply be tired of being so firmly and continually on the back foot. A leadership election will give the party the chance to work out what they want to stand for. Two more years with a sensible set of policies and they could easily win a majority again, even with the very testing economic climate.
Meanwhile Guy Verhofstadt is trying to organise a no confidence vote in the Commission over approving Poland's recovery funds: 'If the Von der Leyen Commission no longer fulfils its role as guardian of the Treaties, Parliament should withdraw its confidence.'
How will he know who voted against him? It’s a secret ballot, so I’d expect public declarations of loyalty that are not necessarily matched by the way the votes are cast.
Does anyone believe Johnson will stay on if he wins by a narrow majority. I'm not convinced.
He'll stay if for no other reason because he needs the money.
Nah, Boris will make loads more money unbound by the constraints of being PM. He'll get his Telegraph column back within a few months, he'll have a memoir out within a year, lecture circuit and guest speaker within two years. I'd guess he has potential income of £10-12m within 5 years post-PM which actually probably covers his child support costs and lifestyle in comparison to his salary as PM which clearly doesn't.
More than that, perhaps
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
Whether Boris wins today or not, it is over. He won't get to GE 2024.
Party-gate has been the most astonishing piece of self-ratnerisation in politics in my lifetime.
If Boris wins tonight he will likely lead the Tories into the next general election. He will be safe for a year and the Tories did so badly in the May 2019 local elections when they lost over 1000 seats, which did for May, they will likely even make a few gains when the seats are up again next year
Is win and then call a snap election for the end of this year.
That doesn't seem like his style. If he wins by at least one vote it'll be business as usual (ie shite) and he won't be going anywhere.
More a pitiless purge of the infidels who came out publicly against him.
There's a non-zero chance of defections if he wins. Lib Dems on high alert.
If he loses, which I hope doesn't happen from a comedy persepective, I don't think he'll quit as an MP either.
He'll continue to trouser the 70 grand a year (or whatever) and while doing his books, speeches and punditry, etc. If he's still on the stage he'll believe that they tory party will turn to him again if things get really shit.
Can he get his US citizenship back? Could he run for something over there?
I don't think the Tory MPs realise that this VONC marks the last hurrah of a different, bygone era. One that we are leaving behind for ever. Is that a good thing? We shall see.
Is it 1914 again or something?
The lights are going out all over Europe. We won't see them lit again until electricity bills return to affordable levels.
Comments
Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire and vocal Brexit supporter, tells the BBC that he will be voting against the PM, saying the public are "exasperated" with Partygate.
He said the row over Boris Johnson breaching lockdown rules and allowing further breaches by his staff is likely to drag on. "I don’t think people are going to forgive and forget," he says.
Bridgen claims that "there has been quite a lot of intimidation within the party to suppress the letters" which triggered the no confidence ballot but says the PM's negative poll rating is a "drag on the ticket".
"It’s not normal for a Conservative PM to be booed outside St Paul’s Cathedral," he says.
(BBC)
Rejoining SM without CU, simply means accepting both FoM and whatever Macron wants to add to each piece of EU legislation - for very little benefit. It would mean all those people in retail, hospitality and warehouse work, who are now earning £12-£20 an hour, suddenly go back to minimum wage overnight, at huge cost to the government of in-work benefits, and with additional pressure on housing and government services.
Another reason I dont buy the 'too soon' argument.
If he wins the Tories carry on with extreme wounds. They cannot gain support from non Tories, and huge groups of trad Tory voters are alienated beyond repair over the Boris question.
Reason therefore suggests that it is massively in the interests of the party and virtually all MPs to risk the change. Obvs it may be worse, but at least there is a chance. With Boris there isn't.
As it is possible that no further chance will come until June 2023 the MPs can and will take the only chance now.
With that reasoning those odds on Boris losing today look value.
OTOH they voted to keep TM............
All the other Tory votes we've been able to pretty accurately estimate how many votes. Meyer couple of dozen. MT v Heseltine. Win. But by enough? May. Maybe c 100 against.
As you say. His support is narrow but deep. Opposition wide but shallow.
Could be anything really. I wouldn't be surprised by a landslide either way. Or very close.
Biden will be happy too. He didn't like Johnson, whatever the public line may have been.
That's why it'd be interesting to see who the six are who haven't yet publicly said so. If any of them resigned that would dominate the news for the day, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
I haven't checked who has or hasn't, but in past times it always seems that Patel is one of the last to do so.
There's a non-zero chance of defections if he wins. Lib Dems on high alert.
Whether Boris wins today or not, it is over. He won't get to GE 2024.
Party-gate has been the most astonishing piece of self-ratnerisation in politics in my lifetime.
The elite of Alexander's close companions, minus Craterus who was unfortunately absent and Hephaestion who was unfortunately dead, rallied and manage to reassert themselves.
After which Perdiccas had the followers of Meleager trampled to death by elephants as a subtle way of indicating he should probably keep his head down.
It was the combination rather than one punch.
I cannot influence the result. My MP was an early letter writer. Those on the media will have made up their mind. Those who have not are a small minority.
Come back at 8pm for the result.
To contemplate a world without Boris. Or a world where the flush is not strong enough to shift the turd from the pan.
There’s never a perfect moment . I’d be shocked if Johnson loses but I’ve been shocked many times over the last few years .
I doubt organisation will have much to do with it. They will all vote, and they have all had months to consider what they should do.
*VOMIT*
The parallels with the Corbynistas are extensive. Same conviction they are the sole source of truth, same belief against all the evidence that they are born winners and that the British electorate are fully behind them, and same obsession with the idea any opposition to them is some nefarious plot led by shady enemies of the people.
By inner circle I mean the first and possibly second concentric ring around Boris, the rings including:
1. (the King's privy) Dorries, JRM, Priti
2. (the royal bedchamber) Raab, Truss, Gove, Kwarteng, Zahawi
3. (the state rooms) Rishi, Javed, Wallace, Sharma, various others
Then Shapps who just does his thing and routinely shows loyalty to whoever's the latest leader.
And how she will feel as she puts pen to paper sometime between 6pm and 8pm.
I saw his face the other day and genuinely took a few moments to click a) who he was and b) what post he held.
Politics can be very ruthless and time stands still for no one.
He'll continue to trouser the 70 grand a year (or whatever) and while doing his books, speeches and punditry, etc. If he's still on the stage he'll believe that they tory party will turn to him again if things get really shit.
This seems all a way to avoid the realisation that the referendum was lost because the arguments for Remain were poor.
It summed up the visceral anger (and hurt) out there at the moment and if they don't lance this boil they will suffer a crushing defeat at the next General Election and deservedly so.
Today is the day they must come to their senses, clean up the act, and go forward. They could still pull off a Major '92.
If this is the end (and surely it's now either 10 hours or 10 months to the end- once the question of confidence is out of the box, it never goes back in fully) it will be because of Johnson's character. And whilst the incident showing that up was unknown in the end, it was always going to end something like this.
Even in his honeymoon, people who knew him were pointing out that everyone who deals with Johnson ends up regretting it.
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/11/what-it-takes-to-be-a-good-leader/ -
"if Boris becomes PM, those who work for him know that they cannot expect him to have their backs if it does not suit him, that he is a politician who does what he wants, not what he ought."
I wrote this back in July 2020 - "Johnson likes to be loved but he likes being feared even more. This can get you far in politics, indeed has got him to the top. When that love fades and the fear goes – and they will, one day – his fall will be worth watching. For those who believe that ruthlessness and ambition, untempered by competence and integrity, are dangerous, that day cannot come soon enough."
Tory MPs may finally do the right thing later today but that they chose this charlatan in the first place should not be so quickly forgiven or forgotten.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2022/06/a-vote-of-confidence-in-johnson-will-take-place-today.html
https://twitter.com/rewearmouth/status/1533400778592899073?s=21&t=30y9fTGr4mWhxuKYehp-EQ
Quite bizarre
The Johnsonite spin since it all started, and will be until he is prised out of No.10, leaving fingernail tracks scored in the doorposts.
If the vote goes against Johnson the story will be written that it was the booing that was the tipping point.
So the Lib Dems bemoaning the loss of Johnson will still have plenty of chances to gain advantage in the coming months.
The jeers and boos really were the last straw.
Or new leader puts May in the Cabinet just to dig in the knife.
One of the several core constituencies that Boris Johnson has lost are those who believe the Conservative Party stands, above all, for low taxes and minimal state. I know that there have been extraordinary external circumstances but this Gov't has been gobsmackingly un-Conservative. We have the highest rate of taxation and spending for zillions of years under a CONSERVATIVE Government. It has really pissed people off on the Right, who were jittery anyway because no-one has a clue what he stands for, least of all himself. When you combine that with serial disloyalty (Owen Paterson) you really must understand that the remainer rump really are the least of Johnson's problems.
He also loses his country house at Chequers and staff and chef, loses a town house in Westminster and most of his police escort and no longer dominates the headlines either
I think it'll be fairly close tonight as undoubtedly many Tory MPs will simply be tired of being so firmly and continually on the back foot. A leadership election will give the party the chance to work out what they want to stand for. Two more years with a sensible set of policies and they could easily win a majority again, even with the very testing economic climate.
https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1533737166471409665
His memoirs will be the Anglophone political book of our generation. From Brexit to Covid to Ukraine, he’s been there right in the middle unlike anyone else. No one cares what Biden thinks, and Trump is an entirely different proposal. And Boris can write and he’s got plenty of colourful anecdotes, no doubt
He could get £10m JUST for the memoirs (including all foreign markets). Then he will set off lecturing and the like, maybe do a couple of Netflix series, Love him or loathe him, he’s boffo
He could earn £15+ if you splice it all together