The overnight scorecard looks bad for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
The overnight scorecard looks bad for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
It is becoming a really bad night for the Tories losing high profile Councils such as Westminster and Wandsworth. LDs biggest seat gainer currently https://t.co/Fj4ojBNZ3t
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I can’t keep being first, it makes me look an obsessive 🫢
Cumberland is an extraordinary result. A tactical voting massacre for the Tories.
You havn’t missed anything 🥱
Am I right in thinking that Lab is not gaining in "Red Wall" areas compared to 2018, but is in comparison to 2021?
Nice to see so much yellow and green.
Boris Johnson would not have been in Sunderland earlier this week if the Tories hadn’t thought they were going to win there.
psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.
In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.
Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made. It’s about eating the elephant one step at a time in the world of climbing councils.
Looking at the results in detail, the Conservatives performed extremely well in Southgate (which is surprising, given that it's the sort of affluent Remain constituency that has shifted left) and the nicer parts of Enfield North.
From @bbcone’s election programme tonight with @thehuwedwards. https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1522404426299944960/video/1
‘Basically, I just don’t feel people any longer have the confidence that the prime minister can be relied upon to tell the truth’
-John Mallinson, Tory leader Carlisle city @BBCNews
https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1522456142022164480
Still a long day ahead. If I was blue wall Tory heading to count, they can’t be sure it’s their day.
By the way, amused to see Marvin Rees has been kicked out in Bristol (or at least, his role has been abolished from 2024). Perhaps he should have spent less time obsessing about statues and more time wondering why the schools in Bristol are so shit and the congestion would make a Londoner blink.
https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1522449549893193729
Any projection on national vote share yet?
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1522458167883579392
At that point early in the night, with Labour jubilant over just holds, we thought it a bad night for them. We didn’t really realise what was happening or why it was good for them.
Slow burner UK politics at moment.
They have of course, but Boris Johnson always at pains to draw the line when he became leader.
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1522458552278867968
Now voting in #LocalElections2022 has closed, the Mail finally lays off Starmer and admits life is crap under Johnson. https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1522340538741108737/photo/1
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-wins-wandsworth-conservatives_uk_6274539ce4b046ad0d79d1e5
The excellent British History Podcast has a royal family tree from the heptarchy to modern times. It turns out it was all Woden's fault...
https://www.thebritishhistorypodcast.com/familytree.png
And he's still done nothing about Bristol's schools.
Is it merely holding on, or actually getting back up to?
Labour gain 12 seats from Tories with 41 and Cons on 22 - the lowest seat tally ever for the Tories on Barnet
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1522461037060046849
Come here and see it’s actually been pretty bad for the Tories and good for Labour.
Then look at the actual results and wonder why the headline wasn’t “fantastic night for the Liberal Democrats”.
Wandsworth welcome to Labour. And well done on making history.
The District is currently identical to the Witney Parliamentary constituency - long one of the Tories' safest. A third of its 49 seats are voted for in three of every four years, so rapid change is virtually impossible.
In 2014, of the 17 seats counted last night, the Tories held all but two. Last night they lost all but four, losing 7 this year and a few in 2018. Partly because of demographic change, with the "deference" agricultural vote of 20 years ago now almost totally dead. Partly because of a re-energised LibDem party, and a few pragmatic decisions about campaigning priorities by all three anti-Tory parties. But mostly sheer fury at Johnson's lies, the incumbent Tory MP's indolence (and Johnson-like mendacity over Brexit) and a string of Tory failures.
The scale of anti-Tory anger in what used to be a patch of rural tranquillity is astonishing. It's potty to ignore it, or dismiss it as elderly Nimbyism.
BBC Headline is:
LABOUR TAKES KEY LONDON COUNCILS BUT MODEST GAINS ELSEWHERE
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
Johnson has proved again and again and again a total lack of integrity in his private, political and professional lives
https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1522451821192794112
Interested to see how Labour do in Scotland and Wales and the Sourh. Then we can get an idea of Keir’s new coalition.
It's bad news for the country, but great for Labour.
Every little helps when you’re trying to stop the SNP
In lots of places we are the challengers to the Tories he said. But nothing about Labour.
Unofficial pact as per 1997, it us clear Labour stepped back in some places and so did the Lib Dems. Big problems for the Tories ahead
The Greens make progress in places like Exeter and Oxford. Will be interesting to see who Labour pick as the candidate to replace Bradshaw in Exeter. Could be a seat to watch at the next GE.
It seems any Labour performance has to be measured against Blair’s council and then GE landslide, which is a rather tricky and unnecessary KPI.
During the last few years - which were not easy - the council kept their impost flat while Sadiq Khan maxed out the increase he was allowed (high single digits each year IIRC)
I do think it was weird to vote Tory after a decade of austerity but then I think Corbyn did that not Johnson.
They got what they wanted, Labour don’t ignore them anymore
Funding stopped now. Might be a sign of things to come with government spending (or the current Met Office management might not be as persuasive).
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/06/pollutionwatch-final-flight-met-office-aerial-survey-plane
At the last GE I only had a choice of three parties because of a Green / Lib Dem pact.
A year after Starmee being finished.
A year after people asking how will Labour ever win again?
We know, they change their coalition.
* As many predicted, the Tories are getting slaughtered in the South but holding their own in the North compared with 2018
* But on 2018 results, Labour would have held most of the Red Wall, albeit with reduced majorities. Labour's Red Wall meltdown came in 2019, when Leavers got fed up with Brexit delay. In 2021, the Tories were actually making substantial progress in the North; Labour has reversed that and is closer to 2018 level, which would make a massive difference in terms of seats.
* London is becoming a Labour fortress now (with a few exceptions like Kensington and Chelsea, Enfield and Merton). But outside London, the Southern votes are swinging to whoever is the obvious non-Tory, with LibDems and Greens both benefiting hugely.
- Labour and the LibDems do have something of a de facto tactical voting alliance at grass roots level. The Greens are not part of it and could be real spoilers in a Ge in some seats.
- The Tories risk having their votes in the wrong places. Doing quite well in the Red Wall while losing most of the seats, and melting down in the South and East is a formula for disaster.
But that is us not respecting a uniform view from the professional psephologusts who told us last week Merely polling those 2018 levels again is a stride forward from where they have been.
Voters don't like being insulted, that's the one thing that's worse than being taken for granted.
Conclusion - it really won't be that interesting.
On the night: deeply disapointing results for the Dems
A month later: Oh, it was the largest single night of gains for the Dems in the last 40 years
Results do seem rather slow to come in, it would be much better if everyone could agree on whether to count at night or in the morning.
Good results for Labour in London, as expected, also quite a few independents, LDs and Greens out there. Good expectations management from the Tories, a couple of hundred losses now doesn’t seem awful for them.
But I do take parties that undergo even the 'little campaigning' pact with a certain contempt. If they have values, if they have beliefs, then they should stand for them.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1521812569442467841
He said he wasn't waiting for his count 'I've been around long enough to know when the writing's on the wall'. .......'No it's not because of losing it's a question of morality'
......at which point I stopped listening and now I can't find him. I'm curious to know if he did lose.
In 1999 Blair lost 32 Councils after just 2 years in power and just 2 years later he won another thumping majority.
Governments nearly always perform badly in Local Elections, this Government has had the worst press possible for the last 8 months, Labours performance is nowhere near what it should be.
And people who claim to dislike FPTP because of a supposed or real lack of democracy, who then support electoral pacts, are being inconsistent IMV.