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Are we rushing to premature conclusions about the latest COVID figures? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 28 in General
imageAre we rushing to premature conclusions about the latest COVID figures? – politicalbetting.com

Both the Mail and the Express this morning try to paint a positive picture about COVID based on the declining numbers that we have seen in England over the past few days. Such headlines like the ones above might sell more copies or get clicks on their websites but are they being a bit too premature?

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    Julian Assange stripped of citizenship by Ecuador

    Authorities cite unpaid fees and problems in naturalisation papers relating to WikiLeaks founder

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jul/28/julian-assange-stripped-of-citizenship-by-ecuador
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    What a disaster in the rowing....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    The Telegraph reports the DWP is sounding out Tory MPs on dropping the pensions triple lock. This follows reports of discussions between Number 10 and the Treasury about the triple lock and raising NICs.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/27/pensions-triple-lock-mps-canvassed-opinions-dropping-manifesto/ (£££)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    BREAKING: Sydney extends coronavirus lockdown by 4 weeks as daily cases hit record-high
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    edited July 28
    Re chain gangs in Boris's trademark high-vis jackets (story in header picture).

    Wouldn't it be better to properly fund jobs cleaning graffiti and litter? It would be more reliable and might employ some of those who will otherwise be lost to crime.

    ETA my only experience of this sort of thing is seeing one such litter clearing party fly-tipping what they'd just picked up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    U.S. COVID update: More than 100K new cases, including backlog from Florida, amid surge in hospital admissions

    - New cases: 106,084
    - Average: 62,411 (+6,403)
    - In hospital: 39,288 (+3,767)
    - In ICU: 9,851 (+873)
    - New deaths: 426
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    edited July 28

    Re chain gangs in Boris's trademark high-vis jackets (story in header picture).

    Wouldn't it be better to properly fund jobs cleaning graffiti and litter? It would be more reliable and might employ some of those who will otherwise be lost to crime.

    ETA my only experience of this sort of thing is seeing one such litter clearing party fly-tipping what they'd just picked up.

    Apparently the government has already had to clarify that when Boris said "chain gangs" he did not literally mean chain gangs.

    ETA And since those on community service already wear high-vis jackets, what does Boris mean?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,751
    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005

    Re chain gangs in Boris's trademark high-vis jackets (story in header picture).

    Wouldn't it be better to properly fund jobs cleaning graffiti and litter? It would be more reliable and might employ some of those who will otherwise be lost to crime.

    ETA my only experience of this sort of thing is seeing one such litter clearing party fly-tipping what they'd just picked up.

    Loads of opportunities to be part of Team GB Rowing....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005

    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384

    He was talking about the different Johnson variant though, not Delta variant....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,677

    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384

    He was talking about the different Johnson variant though, not Delta variant....
    Perhaps he meant votes, not cases? ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    edited July 28
    BBC making a balls up of the coverage again...wittering away with no live coverage on One and covering rowing with no British involvement on Red Button, rather than going to Rugby 7s semi final live.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    NEW: St. Louis, Missouri, announces mask mandate for indoor public places

    UPDATE: St. Louis County Council votes to repeal mask mandate
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    Yet another 4th (in the swimming)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,813
    "Labour MP Rosie Duffield is investigated by her party for liking tweet that said trans people were 'mostly heterosexuals cosplaying'

    Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield, 50, is facing a backlash from activists
    LGBT+ Labour pressured Sir Keir Starmer to remove the whip from Ms Duffield"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9832829/Labour-MP-Rosie-Duffield-investigated-party-liking-tweet.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    South Korea reports 1,896 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    I see Piers Moron is now having [email protected] spats with former Olympic medallists over being losers....
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035

    NEW: St. Louis, Missouri, announces mask mandate for indoor public places

    UPDATE: St. Louis County Council votes to repeal mask mandate

    Where I am in Nevada is also introducing a mask mandate from Friday, though I'll be gone on Thursday.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035
    Finally no more rip-off and largely pointless tests for the vaccinated:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/27/freedom-double-jabbed-uk-opens-world/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    GOOOOOOOLLDDDDDDDDDDD
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,979
    I see Eric the panicker has acquired a parody account:

    Incredibly Rigorous Study demonstrated *SUBSTANTIAL DROP* in IQ for ☠️🦠 survivors‼️

    The IQ Drop is Comparable to the Cognitive Decline that my Followers experience after reading just one of my >20-point 🧵s‼️

    😱🚨


    https://twitter.com/ericphding/status/1419986762085146624?s=21
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035
    Fishing said:

    Finally no more rip-off and largely pointless tests for the vaccinated:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/27/freedom-double-jabbed-uk-opens-world/

    Actually, on reading the small print, it seems that only the quarantine requirements are being dropped, not the testing requirements, for EU and US vaccinated travellers.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035

    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384

    Wasn't it that idiot Ferguson's prediction? According to the Telegraph article, he has admitted that he got that one wrong:

    "We're not completely out of the woods, but the equation has fundamentally changed. The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations and death," he told the BBC.

    Only four months after that was blatantly obvious to everyone who took the slightest interest in these things. Why does anyone still listen to that clown?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 893

    What a disaster in the rowing....

    The swimming team appears to have decided that it would like to help itself to their lottery money...

    BREAKING: Sydney extends coronavirus lockdown by 4 weeks as daily cases hit record-high

    Now, that's what a *real* disaster looks like: when you're entirely committed to Zero Covid and you discover that lockdown can no longer deliver. They can't eradicate Delta with lockdown, they daren't loosen their grip because their vaccination drive has been such a total failure, and there's no immediate prospect of improvement in the latter.

    Australia's supplies of mRNA vaccines are desperately constrained, and the usual stories about rare side effects and the regulatory response to them have, between them, already destroyed the reputation of AZ so thoroughly that almost nobody will take it, even where offered the choice.

    Never mind four weeks: Sydney may still be in the same lockdown at Christmas.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    The answer to Mike's question is, 'yes'.

    Partly thanks to our refusal to vaccinate under 18's there are still 45% of the UK population who are not fully protected by vaccination. Even when all those who've had their first jab are entered for the follow up, we will still be leaving 1/3rd of the population unvaccinated.

    That's NOT herd immunity.

    We are creating a perfect petri dish for variants.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,677

    The answer to Mike's question is, 'yes'.

    Partly thanks to our refusal to vaccinate under 18's there are still 45% of the UK population who are not fully protected by vaccination. Even when all those who've had their first jab are entered for the follow up, we will still be leaving 1/3rd of the population unvaccinated.

    That's NOT herd immunity.

    We are creating a perfect petri dish for variants.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    Vaccination isn't the only thing which can lead to herd immunity.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 28
    Fishing said:

    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384

    The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations
    Actually hospitalisations have been rising.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638

    Fishing said:

    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384

    The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations
    Actually hospitalisations have been rising.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
    Deaths lag cases shocker.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 28
    DougSeal said:

    The answer to Mike's question is, 'yes'.

    Partly thanks to our refusal to vaccinate under 18's there are still 45% of the UK population who are not fully protected by vaccination. Even when all those who've had their first jab are entered for the follow up, we will still be leaving 1/3rd of the population unvaccinated.

    That's NOT herd immunity.

    We are creating a perfect petri dish for variants.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    Your colonial mindset and selfishness is outstanding. The West might be creating a “perfect Petri dish for variants” but not in the U.K. This insane British-exceptionalism you have when the rate of vaccination across Africa as a whole is less than 10%. Instead of worrying about British kids who will be vaccinated eventually how about considering the fact that millions upon millions of vulnerable adults across the developing world are dying because we are hoarding vaccines. Perhaps you could raise that at your next Reform Party meeting?
    This is the most unnecessary post I've seen in a long, long, time and you should apologise for it. You won't (of course) because you're a lily-livered little coward skulking behind your computer. But you should.

    I have spent most of my life outside of the UK including in places you wouldn't have dreamed about in your worst nightmares, working with the most disadvantaged children.

    I was writing about the UK, dunderhead.

    That doesn't preclude vaccination for others abroad. But if the UK gets this wrong we are, as the WHO have pointed out, creating the perfect conditions to wreck the entire world. How so? Because a fully unlocked nation which doesn't have herd immunity through vaccination is a petri dish for variant generation.

    Now apologise.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    DougSeal said:

    Fishing said:

    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384

    The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations
    Actually hospitalisations have been rising.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
    Deaths lag cases shocker.
    I think you need to go back to bed and get some sleep. You've REALLY got out of bed on the wrong side.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,508

    BBC making a balls up of the coverage again...wittering away with no live coverage on One and covering rowing with no British involvement on Red Button, rather than going to Rugby 7s semi final live.

    Under the TV terms this time, they are significantly limited in how much live coverage they are allowed to use.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 893

    Fishing said:

    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384

    The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations
    Actually hospitalisations have been rising.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
    At a reduced rate, and with restrictions being scrapped rather than tightened.

    We know to our cost that the course of this disease can be very unpredictable; however, based on how Delta has run its course thus far in the first places to be severely affected, including English council areas like Bolton and Bedford, and the data for Scotland in its entirety, there's every reason to believe that the hospital total will level off sooner rather than later.

    Bluntly, there's simply not an infinite population of vulnerable people waiting to keel over from this thing.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Right, off for a run. Have a good day everyone.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,441
    edited July 28
    DougSeal said:

    Fishing said:

    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384

    The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations
    Actually hospitalisations have been rising.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
    Deaths lag cases shocker.
    It's nice that people have dropped "Case numbers don't matter" and "The link has been broken", and gone over to "Case numbers are going down" and "Hospitalisations and deaths lag case numbers".

    Quite right, of course. Though perhaps they should keep their old mantras in reserve, in case case numbers start going up again.

    In the past four weeks the growth rate has gone from 73% to -30%. That must represent a real change, but it has been swinging up and down pretty wildly for a couple of months, and it could well go positive again for a while. I don't believe the modelling that's been done has captured this kind of short-term oscillatory behaviour, which presumably reflects inhomogeneity between regions and/or age groups or other demographic groups.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,508
    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Finally no more rip-off and largely pointless tests for the vaccinated:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/27/freedom-double-jabbed-uk-opens-world/

    Actually, on reading the small print, it seems that only the quarantine requirements are being dropped, not the testing requirements, for EU and US vaccinated travellers.
    That’s what comes of relying on the Telegraph! Try this instead?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/27/uk-poised-end-amber-list-quarantine-people-vaccinated-in-us-and-eu
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,801
    Hmm, worrying signs coming from the rowing team. Just watched the replay of the mens 4, what a shambles. 6 gold medals in a row to bumping into the Italians.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,691
    IanB2 said:

    BBC making a balls up of the coverage again...wittering away with no live coverage on One and covering rowing with no British involvement on Red Button, rather than going to Rugby 7s semi final live.

    Under the TV terms this time, they are significantly limited in how much live coverage they are allowed to use.
    They have the rights to two live streams. One of those is BBC One, the other is I the red button. The problem is that every time I put on BBC One, they are in the studio in Salford talking.

    So Eurosport it is.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,979

    Partly thanks to our refusal to vaccinate under 18's

    When was this decided? The JCVI has already recommended vaccination of some 12-18s.

    Who should NOT be vaccinated instead of 12-18 year olds, given we haven't finished vaccinating the 18+?

    Why do you conclude that vaccinating 12-18s is more important than completing vaccination of the 18+?

    As with many complaining about the "decision" (sic) not to vaccinate to 12-18s you ignore the consequences of your proposal.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,979

    DougSeal said:

    The answer to Mike's question is, 'yes'.

    Partly thanks to our refusal to vaccinate under 18's there are still 45% of the UK population who are not fully protected by vaccination. Even when all those who've had their first jab are entered for the follow up, we will still be leaving 1/3rd of the population unvaccinated.

    That's NOT herd immunity.

    We are creating a perfect petri dish for variants.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    Your colonial mindset and selfishness is outstanding. The West might be creating a “perfect Petri dish for variants” but not in the U.K. This insane British-exceptionalism you have when the rate of vaccination across Africa as a whole is less than 10%. Instead of worrying about British kids who will be vaccinated eventually how about considering the fact that millions upon millions of vulnerable adults across the developing world are dying because we are hoarding vaccines. Perhaps you could raise that at your next Reform Party meeting?
    This is the most unnecessary post I've seen in a long, long, time
    You don't read your own posts then.

    I don't blame you.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,060

    Re chain gangs in Boris's trademark high-vis jackets (story in header picture).

    Wouldn't it be better to properly fund jobs cleaning graffiti and litter? It would be more reliable and might employ some of those who will otherwise be lost to crime.

    ETA my only experience of this sort of thing is seeing one such litter clearing party fly-tipping what they'd just picked up.

    Apparently the government has already had to clarify that when Boris said "chain gangs" he did not literally mean chain gangs.

    ETA And since those on community service already wear high-vis jackets, what does Boris mean?
    Boris meant that he hadn't got a clue what he was talking about.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,060

    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384

    Even for you this one is sad. Where did Keir Starmer get his "100k cases a day" figure from on the 19th? Thats right, from Health Secretary Javid on the 6th

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6

    So what you mean is that Sajid Javid's prediction that we were heading for 10k cases a day hasn't aged well. As you are consistent and not at all myopic you will of course now redirect your ire towards Javid won't you..?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,179
    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, worrying signs coming from the rowing team. Just watched the replay of the mens 4, what a shambles. 6 gold medals in a row to bumping into the Italians.

    There is a wonderful pun I could make on that, but it’s a bit racist so I won’t.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,060
    On topic, you can hardly blame the Express and the Mail. The former will say literally anything to show support for the Clown, the latter is populist and the readers want shut of the Pox so here's a good news story.

    I *hope* we are now seeing it off. Passionately hope. But you can't pray the pox away, too many are not vaccinated, we have just done another pull back of restrictions so another surge in cases as we have seen before seems more likely than not.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    DougSeal said:

    The answer to Mike's question is, 'yes'.

    Partly thanks to our refusal to vaccinate under 18's there are still 45% of the UK population who are not fully protected by vaccination. Even when all those who've had their first jab are entered for the follow up, we will still be leaving 1/3rd of the population unvaccinated.

    That's NOT herd immunity.

    We are creating a perfect petri dish for variants.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    Your colonial mindset and selfishness is outstanding. The West might be creating a “perfect Petri dish for variants” but not in the U.K. This insane British-exceptionalism you have when the rate of vaccination across Africa as a whole is less than 10%. Instead of worrying about British kids who will be vaccinated eventually how about considering the fact that millions upon millions of vulnerable adults across the developing world are dying because we are hoarding vaccines. Perhaps you could raise that at your next Reform Party meeting?
    This is the most unnecessary post I've seen in a long, long, time
    You don't read your own posts then.

    I don't blame you.
    I think CHB and CC are related if not separated at birth .. both came on site as ostensibly supporting the Govt and then switched dramatically over nothing. CHB is the most interesting as professed to.know sfa when said poster started and needed "help" but has come on in leaps and bounds about everything Labour..
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Finally no more rip-off and largely pointless tests for the vaccinated:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/27/freedom-double-jabbed-uk-opens-world/

    Actually, on reading the small print, it seems that only the quarantine requirements are being dropped, not the testing requirements, for EU and US vaccinated travellers.
    That’s what comes of relying on the Telegraph! Try this instead?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/27/uk-poised-end-amber-list-quarantine-people-vaccinated-in-us-and-eu
    Relying on the Grauniad=lol
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,821
    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,195

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Finally no more rip-off and largely pointless tests for the vaccinated:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/27/freedom-double-jabbed-uk-opens-world/

    Actually, on reading the small print, it seems that only the quarantine requirements are being dropped, not the testing requirements, for EU and US vaccinated travellers.
    That’s what comes of relying on the Telegraph! Try this instead?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/27/uk-poised-end-amber-list-quarantine-people-vaccinated-in-us-and-eu
    Relying on the Grauniad=lol
    Morning everyone!

    Can't sensibly 'rely' on any one newspaper, or commercial news outlet across the board can one! Often all too easy to put a sympathetic or critical slant on 'news'.

    That is, or perhaps was, the BBC's strength.

    (Declared interest: a Guardian reader)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,179
    Japan have most golds?

    When was the last time they topped an Olympic table? I’m guessing the answer’s ‘never.’
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,551

    On topic, you can hardly blame the Express and the Mail. The former will say literally anything to show support for the Clown, the latter is populist and the readers want shut of the Pox so here's a good news story.

    I *hope* we are now seeing it off. Passionately hope. But you can't pray the pox away, too many are not vaccinated, we have just done another pull back of restrictions so another surge in cases as we have seen before seems more likely than not.

    I don't think that we will see a big rise in cases until schools and universities go back, and the football restarts.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,979
    The BBC is completely banned in China. The only “trust crisis” is a manufactured one, pushed by the cod journalists of a one party state, using Western social media platforms to which they have total, unfettered access

    https://twitter.com/TheJohnSudworth/status/1420268858301063169?s=20
  • eekeek Posts: 15,791

    Re chain gangs in Boris's trademark high-vis jackets (story in header picture).

    Wouldn't it be better to properly fund jobs cleaning graffiti and litter? It would be more reliable and might employ some of those who will otherwise be lost to crime.

    ETA my only experience of this sort of thing is seeing one such litter clearing party fly-tipping what they'd just picked up.

    Apparently the government has already had to clarify that when Boris said "chain gangs" he did not literally mean chain gangs.

    ETA And since those on community service already wear high-vis jackets, what does Boris mean?
    Absolutely nothing, this Government is merely repeat ng it's trick of announcing things that are already in effect as new.

    And it works surprisingly often
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,551
    ydoethur said:

    Japan have most golds?

    When was the last time they topped an Olympic table? I’m guessing the answer’s ‘never.’

    There seems to be considerable home advantage, even without crowds.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,508

    Re chain gangs in Boris's trademark high-vis jackets (story in header picture).

    Wouldn't it be better to properly fund jobs cleaning graffiti and litter? It would be more reliable and might employ some of those who will otherwise be lost to crime.

    ETA my only experience of this sort of thing is seeing one such litter clearing party fly-tipping what they'd just picked up.

    Apparently the government has already had to clarify that when Boris said "chain gangs" he did not literally mean chain gangs.

    ETA And since those on community service already wear high-vis jackets, what does Boris mean?
    Boris meant that he hadn't got a clue what he was talking about.
    and in other news, the Pope shits in the woods...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,508

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Finally no more rip-off and largely pointless tests for the vaccinated:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/27/freedom-double-jabbed-uk-opens-world/

    Actually, on reading the small print, it seems that only the quarantine requirements are being dropped, not the testing requirements, for EU and US vaccinated travellers.
    That’s what comes of relying on the Telegraph! Try this instead?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/27/uk-poised-end-amber-list-quarantine-people-vaccinated-in-us-and-eu
    Relying on the Grauniad=lol
    Having the headline match the story is at least a start.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,195
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Japan have most golds?

    When was the last time they topped an Olympic table? I’m guessing the answer’s ‘never.’

    There seems to be considerable home advantage, even without crowds.
    How many medals did Brazil win last time out? I know we did well in London, but we did channel quite a lot of money into sport, via the National Lottery and similar, after Atlanta.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,773
    edited July 28
    Morning all.

    In answer to the Q, no we aren't - BJ keeps talking about caution, and the timetable has been delayed repeatedly and restrictions kept much tighter than expected.

    The media chimpanzees' tea party can only grab one aspect at once and write it in wax crayons, which is what they are doing.

    I'm thinking that by luck or judgement (or misjudgement) this is quite likely to work from here.

    What on earth is this Central London Slag Heap thing at Marble Arch?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,179
    IanB2 said:

    Re chain gangs in Boris's trademark high-vis jackets (story in header picture).

    Wouldn't it be better to properly fund jobs cleaning graffiti and litter? It would be more reliable and might employ some of those who will otherwise be lost to crime.

    ETA my only experience of this sort of thing is seeing one such litter clearing party fly-tipping what they'd just picked up.

    Apparently the government has already had to clarify that when Boris said "chain gangs" he did not literally mean chain gangs.

    ETA And since those on community service already wear high-vis jackets, what does Boris mean?
    Boris meant that he hadn't got a clue what he was talking about.
    and in other news, the Pope shits in the woods...
    That’s surprising. Normally he grins and bears it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,979
    If you won't name it, someone else will:

    Just seen a theoretical future Scottish currency referred to as the 'Dreichma' and think that's the most apt imaginary name yet. Well done, whoever came up with that one, which I don't think I'd seen before.

    https://twitter.com/HappyBritScot/status/1420274355947327491?s=20
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,207
    edited July 28

    On topic, you can hardly blame the Express and the Mail. The former will say literally anything to show support for the Clown, the latter is populist and the readers want shut of the Pox so here's a good news story.

    I *hope* we are now seeing it off. Passionately hope. But you can't pray the pox away, too many are not vaccinated, we have just done another pull back of restrictions so another surge in cases as we have seen before seems more likely than not.

    Given how soon after the Football Final cases began to decline I think we'd have started to see an increase in cases from the 19th July changes if we were going to.

    The next thing to watch will be Scottish schools reopening, maybe the start of the football season, and then universities - but will any compare to half the country congregating to watch Southgate's Soccer Stars?

    We also know the second dose does a lot to inhibit spread compared to one dose alone, and we'll have many more second doses by the autumn.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    edited July 28
    If my half baked theory about the "natural" unlocking wave of being drowned out by the football wave is correct then this weekend is when we would see crossover.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Japan have most golds?

    When was the last time they topped an Olympic table? I’m guessing the answer’s ‘never.’

    There seems to be considerable home advantage, even without crowds.
    It is easier to enter more participants in more sports when it is at home.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,979
    So what’s going on? It seems the case that Johnson and Sunak are keen on reopening the borders to foreign visitors as soon as possible, but that some other Cabinet ministers are more skeptical — so whoever briefed today’s papers might have been trying to gently bounce the decision over the line. The concerns of the cautious ministers are centered on the quality of vaccine certification in the U.S., which does not have a single digital vaccine passport scheme like the U.K. and EU, Swinford reports. He says some in government are worried that the American paper-based vaccine card, organized at state rather than federal level, could be vulnerable to forgery. Playbook is also told that some ministers are worried at being seen as soft on borders after being stung during the first wave and again by the Delta variant originally detected in India. Labour has made a major play of the government’s weakness on borders during the pandemic.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-fly-delta-7-up-fergie-time/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255
    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,147
    edited July 28
    To see what will happen here you just need to look at India. The Delta variant has an arrowhead curve. Trying to find a human behaviour explanation for the virus just doing what it does is human nature but is pointless.
    We have no lockdown whatsoever, people are gathering close to each other, sporting events are jam packed yet cases are falling off a cliff. Look at Jakarta, daily cases dropped from 14,619 on Jul 12 to 2,662 on Jul 25. This curve will happen wherever Delta strikes.

    The BBC news was funny last night with the reporter saying that Scientists were confused by what was happening,
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,277
    edited July 28
    Good morning

    I have just listened to an interview with Angela Rayner by Kay Burley on Sky and am deeply unimpressed with Rayner's endorsement of those unvaccinated as being their choice, and even suggesting vaccination does not guarantee immunity.

    We know vaccination is not 100%, but for the deputy leader of the Labour party to publicly undermine vaccination is just irresponsible

    Indeed, even Kate McCann of Sky was critical and said that for Labour to oppose the opening of the UK to vaccinated EU and US citizens is quite remarkable, and continued by saying we do need to start living with the virus and travel is so much a part of that
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,551
    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,979
    NEW: Labour's Deputy Leader Angela Rayner says that lifting quarantine for fully-vaccinated travellers from the U.S. and the EU would be "reckless"

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1420278220268658691?s=20

    But not reckless for UK residents?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,277
    I notice Sydney is back in lockdown with reports that it will not be lifted before September

    Furthermore, apparently only 16% are vaccinated
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    edited July 28

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Finally no more rip-off and largely pointless tests for the vaccinated:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/27/freedom-double-jabbed-uk-opens-world/

    Actually, on reading the small print, it seems that only the quarantine requirements are being dropped, not the testing requirements, for EU and US vaccinated travellers.
    That’s what comes of relying on the Telegraph! Try this instead?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/27/uk-poised-end-amber-list-quarantine-people-vaccinated-in-us-and-eu
    Relying on the Grauniad=lol
    It's annoying that one can't rely on any of the printed press - none of them even try to be unbiased. Much as I like the Guardian, I'm bored with their relentless diet of half a dozen negative stories a day about the government, just as I'm bored by the opposite in the Telegraph. For all its faults, the BBC makes an effort to offer more than one perspective.
    The Telegraph is not the paper it used to be. The Grauniad has always been error ridden. It is often printing apologies afaics. I stopped buying the Telegraph after Conrad Black became involved and as for the Barclay Brothers.... For years I never bought a newspaper on a daily basis but in retirement, I have found a home with the Times. I.know people loathe Mr Murdoch but he isn't really involved AFAIK and it is a good read.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,551

    To see what will happen here you just need to look at India. The Delta variant has an arrowhead curve. Trying to find a human behaviour explanation for the virus just doing what it does is human nature but is pointless.
    We have no lockdown whatsoever, people are gathering close to each other, sporting events are jam packed yet cases are falling off a cliff. Look at Jakarta, daily cases dropped from 14,619 on Jul 12 to 2,662 on Jul 25. This curve will happen wherever Delta strikes.

    The BBC news was funny last night with the reporter saying that Scientists were confused by what was happening,

    I think that waves are the natural pattern of pandemics. A wave fading doesn't mean that herd immunity is reached though. Just remember how good India looked in Feb, and Nigeria appears now.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,931
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Foxy thanks for the info about beds taken out of the system for infection control purposes. Squares the circle.

    When did they bring it in and do you think it's a good idea?

    Over 10% of England's hospital beds is quite punchy at this time.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,795
    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Seems pretty obvious to me that when schools and unis return, we’re gonna have a new spike in cases, as it burns through the youngsters and in turn to the last of the unvaxxed / not immune adults, a portion of whom will end up in hospital. And unfortunately to a proportion of the double vaxxed too, as has happened this week to a circa a 50-year old acquaintance.

    Probably we’ll get cases down to a low number by the end of August, then localised flare ups in the university towns first, then a bit more widespread, then by the New Year hopefully it’s Romeo Dunn.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,773
    edited July 28

    So what’s going on? It seems the case that Johnson and Sunak are keen on reopening the borders to foreign visitors as soon as possible, but that some other Cabinet ministers are more skeptical — so whoever briefed today’s papers might have been trying to gently bounce the decision over the line. The concerns of the cautious ministers are centered on the quality of vaccine certification in the U.S., which does not have a single digital vaccine passport scheme like the U.K. and EU, Swinford reports. He says some in government are worried that the American paper-based vaccine card, organized at state rather than federal level, could be vulnerable to forgery. Playbook is also told that some ministers are worried at being seen as soft on borders after being stung during the first wave and again by the Delta variant originally detected in India. Labour has made a major play of the government’s weakness on borders during the pandemic.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-fly-delta-7-up-fergie-time/

    We also do not know how huge the Delta wave will be in EU countries.

    Some quite large R values are building up in various places.

    UVDL is about to lose her 'EU success controlling COVID by vaccine rollout' narrative for a couple of months, but I'm sure she'll find somebody else to blame.

    Crucially dependent on the feedstock of unvaxxed population.





  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,821
    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Nightclubs will be interesting. Many of attendees in the short term will be single vaccinated (and some, from the figures on vaccinations in the younger groups, not vaccinated at all). So yes, a bit of a wave among this group looks very likely. I'm not sure that means that the protection from infection from double vaccination is not quite good - the epidemiological studies on this suggest that it is still pretty high (higher still for symptomatic infection).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,821
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Re chain gangs in Boris's trademark high-vis jackets (story in header picture).

    Wouldn't it be better to properly fund jobs cleaning graffiti and litter? It would be more reliable and might employ some of those who will otherwise be lost to crime.

    ETA my only experience of this sort of thing is seeing one such litter clearing party fly-tipping what they'd just picked up.

    Apparently the government has already had to clarify that when Boris said "chain gangs" he did not literally mean chain gangs.

    ETA And since those on community service already wear high-vis jackets, what does Boris mean?
    Boris meant that he hadn't got a clue what he was talking about.
    and in other news, the Pope shits in the woods...
    That’s surprising. Normally he grins and bears it.
    Better than grinning and baring 'it', I guess.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,551
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Foxy thanks for the info about beds taken out of the system for infection control purposes. Squares the circle.

    When did they bring it in and do you think it's a good idea?

    Over 10% of England's hospital beds is quite punchy at this time.
    To be honest, I am not quite sure what the NHS Providers have in mind when they talk of beds taken out for infection control. At my Trust this only happens with ward outbreaks, where new admissions are stopped until the ward is given the all clear.

    When surgery is cancelled due to redeployment of theatres staff and equipment to ICU, the wards usually remain full albeit not with surgical patients.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,551
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
    When I was in London to see Foxjr2s play, I just walked. I like exploring London on foot.

    Personally I would wear an FFP3 if I was travelling by tube, and probably will when the football restarts on 14th August, depending on prevalence. I am not going to be dining or drinking indoors much for a while either, just no particular desire to do so.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255
    Vaccination remains the key for us all. I am still in awe of the French vaccination video that was on a link yesterday. I have been sending it to everyone. I really wish our government was doing something similar

    Here it is again for those that didn't see it: https://twitter.com/olivierveran/status/1402506086767333377?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1402506086767333377|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/europe/truly-uplifting-french-govts-covid-vaccine-promotion-video-wins-internet-watch-clip.html
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,506
    moonshine said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Seems pretty obvious to me that when schools and unis return, we’re gonna have a new spike in cases, as it burns through the youngsters and in turn to the last of the unvaxxed / not immune adults, a portion of whom will end up in hospital. And unfortunately to a proportion of the double vaxxed too, as has happened this week to a circa a 50-year old acquaintance.

    Probably we’ll get cases down to a low number by the end of August, then localised flare ups in the university towns first, then a bit more widespread, then by the New Year hopefully it’s Romeo Dunn.
    It’s interesting that my university’s biggest concern about the new semester is staff health, not students. Precautions are mostly being looked at to look after staff (even some discussion of giving lectures behind a screen...)
    Freshers flu is a real thing. Every year without fail, my lectures in weeks 3 and 4 of the first semester are set to a constant background of coughing...
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    Good morning

    I have just listened to an interview with Angela Rayner by Kay Burley on Sky and am deeply unimpressed with Rayner's endorsement of those unvaccinated as being their choice, and even suggesting vaccination does not guarantee immunity.

    We know vaccination is not 100%, but for the deputy leader of the Labour party to publicly undermine vaccination is just irresponsible

    Indeed, even Kate McCann of Sky was critical and said that for Labour to oppose the opening of the UK to vaccinated EU and US citizens is quite remarkable, and continued by saying we do need to start living with the virus and travel is so much a part of that

    Rayner is thick as two short planks. How she got where she is can only be a matter for conjecture.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282

    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384

    Even for you this one is sad. Where did Keir Starmer get his "100k cases a day" figure from on the 19th? Thats right, from Health Secretary Javid on the 6th

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6

    So what you mean is that Sajid Javid's prediction that we were heading for 10k cases a day hasn't aged well. As you are consistent and not at all myopic you will of course now redirect your ire towards Javid won't you..?
    Health Secretary Javid said that we could see 100k cases a day (as a reasonable worst case scenario).

    Starmer took that, dropped the could, and said we are heading to 100k cases a day.

    Are you really too silly to spot the difference? I mean if you buy a ticket you could win the lottery this week - but if you take that and quit your job because you are heading to winning the jackpot then don't blame me.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,868

    The answer to Mike's question is, 'yes'.

    Partly thanks to our refusal to vaccinate under 18's there are still 45% of the UK population who are not fully protected by vaccination. Even when all those who've had their first jab are entered for the follow up, we will still be leaving 1/3rd of the population unvaccinated.

    That's NOT herd immunity.

    We are creating a perfect petri dish for variants.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    In what way is the UK a 'perfect petri dish for variants' that France or Spain or USA or India or South America or numerous other countries are not ?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,965
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
    Unless they need to travel at rush hour for some reason, particularly the morning rush hour, the tubes are not crowded and therefore feel safe. If still worried, then changing carriages every couple of stops reduces your chance of prolonged exposure to anyone infected. And as Foxy says London is a good walking city, so they should check how long the walks would take instead.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,417

    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Finally no more rip-off and largely pointless tests for the vaccinated:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/27/freedom-double-jabbed-uk-opens-world/

    Actually, on reading the small print, it seems that only the quarantine requirements are being dropped, not the testing requirements, for EU and US vaccinated travellers.
    That’s what comes of relying on the Telegraph! Try this instead?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/27/uk-poised-end-amber-list-quarantine-people-vaccinated-in-us-and-eu
    Relying on the Grauniad=lol
    It's annoying that one can't rely on any of the printed press - none of them even try to be unbiased. Much as I like the Guardian, I'm bored with their relentless diet of half a dozen negative stories a day about the government, just as I'm bored by the opposite in the Telegraph. For all its faults, the BBC makes an effort to offer more than one perspective.
    The Telegraph is not the paper it used to be. The Grauniad has always been error ridden. It is often printing apologies afaics. I stopped buying the Telegraph after Conrad Black became involved and as for the Barclay Brothers.... For years I never bought a newspaper on a daily basis but in retirement, I have found a home with the Times. I.know people loathe Mr Murdoch but he isn't really involved AFAIK and it is a good read.
    Agree The Times isn't a bad option. I don't find them culturally congenial as I do the Guardian, but that's a secondary issue.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,281
    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
  • eekeek Posts: 15,791

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
    Unless they need to travel at rush hour for some reason, particularly the morning rush hour, the tubes are not crowded and therefore feel safe. If still worried, then changing carriages every couple of stops reduces your chance of prolonged exposure to anyone infected. And as Foxy says London is a good walking city, so they should check how long the walks would take instead.
    I'm not so sure with Delta that you need the x minute exposure that was true of other variants.

    A decent mask and staying in the same carriage is probably a better risk (and less hassle).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,801
    DavidL said:

    Vaccination remains the key for us all. I am still in awe of the French vaccination video that was on a link yesterday. I have been sending it to everyone. I really wish our government was doing something similar

    Here it is again for those that didn't see it: https://twitter.com/olivierveran/status/1402506086767333377?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1402506086767333377|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/europe/truly-uplifting-french-govts-covid-vaccine-promotion-video-wins-internet-watch-clip.html

    Yes it's a great advert. Our government hasn't been anywhere near creative enough to get under 40s who haven't got much affection for NHS to get the vaccine. Our whole programme has been designed to get older people and low hanging fruit through the door but it struggles with anyone who needs more than a bit of convincing.

    My advert would be a bloke or woman sitting at home while his friends are out partying and posting it on social media with him scrolling through. FOMO is what will drive young people to get vaccinated. None of them really believe it's going to happen and that they'll find a way to get in without the vaccine passport etc...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
    When I was in London to see Foxjr2s play, I just walked. I like exploring London on foot.

    Personally I would wear an FFP3 if I was travelling by tube, and probably will when the football restarts on 14th August, depending on prevalence. I am not going to be dining or drinking indoors much for a while either, just no particular desire to do so.
    Thanks, I have passed this on and recommended they get the masks.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,965
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
    Unless they need to travel at rush hour for some reason, particularly the morning rush hour, the tubes are not crowded and therefore feel safe. If still worried, then changing carriages every couple of stops reduces your chance of prolonged exposure to anyone infected. And as Foxy says London is a good walking city, so they should check how long the walks would take instead.
    I'm not so sure with Delta that you need the x minute exposure that was true of other variants.

    A decent mask and staying in the same carriage is probably a better risk (and less hassle).
    Oh definitely wear a mask. Surprisingly few people go for FFP2 or N95 but they are less than £1 each from amazon, hardly see anyone in Foxys recommended FFP3 but would give further protection still.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,255
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Vaccination remains the key for us all. I am still in awe of the French vaccination video that was on a link yesterday. I have been sending it to everyone. I really wish our government was doing something similar

    Here it is again for those that didn't see it: https://twitter.com/olivierveran/status/1402506086767333377?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1402506086767333377|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/europe/truly-uplifting-french-govts-covid-vaccine-promotion-video-wins-internet-watch-clip.html

    Yes it's a great advert. Our government hasn't been anywhere near creative enough to get under 40s who haven't got much affection for NHS to get the vaccine. Our whole programme has been designed to get older people and low hanging fruit through the door but it struggles with anyone who needs more than a bit of convincing.

    My advert would be a bloke or woman sitting at home while his friends are out partying and posting it on social media with him scrolling through. FOMO is what will drive young people to get vaccinated. None of them really believe it's going to happen and that they'll find a way to get in without the vaccine passport etc...
    We absolutely need to do more to encourage the young to take up their vaccines now for them, for us, for everyone. A campaign like this looks an excellent use of public money to me (and just might help people get over the fear factor holding many back). The government is missing a trick here.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,282
    Good to see a classic QTWAIN from OGH.

    We've never seen such a fall in cases before without lockdown, we've virtually broken the link between cases and deaths thanks to vaccines, and vaccinations are still going out which means every week that passes weakens that link further.

    Plus its summer, plus what there is of an exit wave is happening now rather than over winter when we have to deal with the return of the flu.

    Its time to stop obsessing over Covid and start thinking about other things that matter more instead.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,868

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
    Unless they need to travel at rush hour for some reason, particularly the morning rush hour, the tubes are not crowded and therefore feel safe. If still worried, then changing carriages every couple of stops reduces your chance of prolonged exposure to anyone infected. And as Foxy says London is a good walking city, so they should check how long the walks would take instead.
    I'm not so sure with Delta that you need the x minute exposure that was true of other variants.

    A decent mask and staying in the same carriage is probably a better risk (and less hassle).
    Oh definitely wear a mask. Surprisingly few people go for FFP2 or N95 but they are less than £1 each from amazon, hardly see anyone in Foxys recommended FFP3 but would give further protection still.
    Its amazing how many people are voluntarily wearing the blue flimsy masks, very often incorrectly.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,965
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Japan have most golds?

    When was the last time they topped an Olympic table? I’m guessing the answer’s ‘never.’

    There seems to be considerable home advantage, even without crowds.
    It is very unlike Premier League football where the players have nearly all had access to excellent coaching from a young age. For the Olympics it is the funding and the buzz created years in advance in the host nation attracting and motivating young athletes that are the bigger drivers of home advantage rather than crowd or climate.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,868
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Vaccination remains the key for us all. I am still in awe of the French vaccination video that was on a link yesterday. I have been sending it to everyone. I really wish our government was doing something similar

    Here it is again for those that didn't see it: https://twitter.com/olivierveran/status/1402506086767333377?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1402506086767333377|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/europe/truly-uplifting-french-govts-covid-vaccine-promotion-video-wins-internet-watch-clip.html

    Yes it's a great advert. Our government hasn't been anywhere near creative enough to get under 40s who haven't got much affection for NHS to get the vaccine. Our whole programme has been designed to get older people and low hanging fruit through the door but it struggles with anyone who needs more than a bit of convincing.

    My advert would be a bloke or woman sitting at home while his friends are out partying and posting it on social media with him scrolling through. FOMO is what will drive young people to get vaccinated. None of them really believe it's going to happen and that they'll find a way to get in without the vaccine passport etc...
    The government's default mode is complacent lethargy rather than attempting to build on success.
This discussion has been closed.