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Are we rushing to premature conclusions about the latest COVID figures? – politicalbetting.com
Are we rushing to premature conclusions about the latest COVID figures? – politicalbetting.com
Both the Mail and the Express this morning try to paint a positive picture about COVID based on the declining numbers that we have seen in England over the past few days. Such headlines like the ones above might sell more copies or get clicks on their websites but are they being a bit too premature?
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Authorities cite unpaid fees and problems in naturalisation papers relating to WikiLeaks founder
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jul/28/julian-assange-stripped-of-citizenship-by-ecuador
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/27/pensions-triple-lock-mps-canvassed-opinions-dropping-manifesto/ (£££)
Wouldn't it be better to properly fund jobs cleaning graffiti and litter? It would be more reliable and might employ some of those who will otherwise be lost to crime.
ETA my only experience of this sort of thing is seeing one such litter clearing party fly-tipping what they'd just picked up.
- New cases: 106,084
- Average: 62,411 (+6,403)
- In hospital: 39,288 (+3,767)
- In ICU: 9,851 (+873)
- New deaths: 426
ETA And since those on community service already wear high-vis jackets, what does Boris mean?
https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384
UPDATE: St. Louis County Council votes to repeal mask mandate
Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield, 50, is facing a backlash from activists
LGBT+ Labour pressured Sir Keir Starmer to remove the whip from Ms Duffield"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9832829/Labour-MP-Rosie-Duffield-investigated-party-liking-tweet.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/27/freedom-double-jabbed-uk-opens-world/
Incredibly Rigorous Study demonstrated *SUBSTANTIAL DROP* in IQ for ☠️🦠 survivors‼️
The IQ Drop is Comparable to the Cognitive Decline that my Followers experience after reading just one of my >20-point 🧵s‼️
😱🚨
https://twitter.com/ericphding/status/1419986762085146624?s=21
"We're not completely out of the woods, but the equation has fundamentally changed. The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations and death," he told the BBC.
Only four months after that was blatantly obvious to everyone who took the slightest interest in these things. Why does anyone still listen to that clown?
Australia's supplies of mRNA vaccines are desperately constrained, and the usual stories about rare side effects and the regulatory response to them have, between them, already destroyed the reputation of AZ so thoroughly that almost nobody will take it, even where offered the choice.
Never mind four weeks: Sydney may still be in the same lockdown at Christmas.
Partly thanks to our refusal to vaccinate under 18's there are still 45% of the UK population who are not fully protected by vaccination. Even when all those who've had their first jab are entered for the follow up, we will still be leaving 1/3rd of the population unvaccinated.
That's NOT herd immunity.
We are creating a perfect petri dish for variants.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
I have spent most of my life outside of the UK including in places you wouldn't have dreamed about in your worst nightmares, working with the most disadvantaged children.
I was writing about the UK, dunderhead.
That doesn't preclude vaccination for others abroad. But if the UK gets this wrong we are, as the WHO have pointed out, creating the perfect conditions to wreck the entire world. How so? Because a fully unlocked nation which doesn't have herd immunity through vaccination is a petri dish for variant generation.
Now apologise.
We know to our cost that the course of this disease can be very unpredictable; however, based on how Delta has run its course thus far in the first places to be severely affected, including English council areas like Bolton and Bedford, and the data for Scotland in its entirety, there's every reason to believe that the hospital total will level off sooner rather than later.
Bluntly, there's simply not an infinite population of vulnerable people waiting to keel over from this thing.
Again, I’m not a Tory, never voted for them, but their many faults can be exposed without manipulating the truth as you do on this board consistently.
Why on Earth should I apologise?
Quite right, of course. Though perhaps they should keep their old mantras in reserve, in case case numbers start going up again.
In the past four weeks the growth rate has gone from 73% to -30%. That must represent a real change, but it has been swinging up and down pretty wildly for a couple of months, and it could well go positive again for a while. I don't believe the modelling that's been done has captured this kind of short-term oscillatory behaviour, which presumably reflects inhomogeneity between regions and/or age groups or other demographic groups.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/27/uk-poised-end-amber-list-quarantine-people-vaccinated-in-us-and-eu
Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.
So Eurosport it is.
Who should NOT be vaccinated instead of 12-18 year olds, given we haven't finished vaccinating the 18+?
Why do you conclude that vaccinating 12-18s is more important than completing vaccination of the 18+?
As with many complaining about the "decision" (sic) not to vaccinate to 12-18s you ignore the consequences of your proposal.
I don't blame you.
https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
So what you mean is that Sajid Javid's prediction that we were heading for 10k cases a day hasn't aged well. As you are consistent and not at all myopic you will of course now redirect your ire towards Javid won't you..?
I *hope* we are now seeing it off. Passionately hope. But you can't pray the pox away, too many are not vaccinated, we have just done another pull back of restrictions so another surge in cases as we have seen before seems more likely than not.
Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?
Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?
Is it closing schools?
If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.
If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)
If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
Can't sensibly 'rely' on any one newspaper, or commercial news outlet across the board can one! Often all too easy to put a sympathetic or critical slant on 'news'.
That is, or perhaps was, the BBC's strength.
(Declared interest: a Guardian reader)
When was the last time they topped an Olympic table? I’m guessing the answer’s ‘never.’
https://twitter.com/TheJohnSudworth/status/1420268858301063169?s=20
And it works surprisingly often
In answer to the Q, no we aren't - BJ keeps talking about caution, and the timetable has been delayed repeatedly and restrictions kept much tighter than expected.
The media chimpanzees' tea party can only grab one aspect at once and write it in wax crayons, which is what they are doing.
I'm thinking that by luck or judgement (or misjudgement) this is quite likely to work from here.
What on earth is this Central London Slag Heap thing at Marble Arch?
Just seen a theoretical future Scottish currency referred to as the 'Dreichma' and think that's the most apt imaginary name yet. Well done, whoever came up with that one, which I don't think I'd seen before.
https://twitter.com/HappyBritScot/status/1420274355947327491?s=20
The next thing to watch will be Scottish schools reopening, maybe the start of the football season, and then universities - but will any compare to half the country congregating to watch Southgate's Soccer Stars?
We also know the second dose does a lot to inhibit spread compared to one dose alone, and we'll have many more second doses by the autumn.
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-fly-delta-7-up-fergie-time/
The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.
We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.
We have no lockdown whatsoever, people are gathering close to each other, sporting events are jam packed yet cases are falling off a cliff. Look at Jakarta, daily cases dropped from 14,619 on Jul 12 to 2,662 on Jul 25. This curve will happen wherever Delta strikes.
The BBC news was funny last night with the reporter saying that Scientists were confused by what was happening,
I have just listened to an interview with Angela Rayner by Kay Burley on Sky and am deeply unimpressed with Rayner's endorsement of those unvaccinated as being their choice, and even suggesting vaccination does not guarantee immunity.
We know vaccination is not 100%, but for the deputy leader of the Labour party to publicly undermine vaccination is just irresponsible
Indeed, even Kate McCann of Sky was critical and said that for Labour to oppose the opening of the UK to vaccinated EU and US citizens is quite remarkable, and continued by saying we do need to start living with the virus and travel is so much a part of that
I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1420278220268658691?s=20
But not reckless for UK residents?
Furthermore, apparently only 16% are vaccinated
When did they bring it in and do you think it's a good idea?
Over 10% of England's hospital beds is quite punchy at this time.
Probably we’ll get cases down to a low number by the end of August, then localised flare ups in the university towns first, then a bit more widespread, then by the New Year hopefully it’s Romeo Dunn.
Some quite large R values are building up in various places.
UVDL is about to lose her 'EU success controlling COVID by vaccine rollout' narrative for a couple of months, but I'm sure she'll find somebody else to blame.
Crucially dependent on the feedstock of unvaxxed population.
When surgery is cancelled due to redeployment of theatres staff and equipment to ICU, the wards usually remain full albeit not with surgical patients.
Personally I would wear an FFP3 if I was travelling by tube, and probably will when the football restarts on 14th August, depending on prevalence. I am not going to be dining or drinking indoors much for a while either, just no particular desire to do so.
Here it is again for those that didn't see it: https://twitter.com/olivierveran/status/1402506086767333377?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1402506086767333377|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/europe/truly-uplifting-french-govts-covid-vaccine-promotion-video-wins-internet-watch-clip.html
Freshers flu is a real thing. Every year without fail, my lectures in weeks 3 and 4 of the first semester are set to a constant background of coughing...
Starmer took that, dropped the could, and said we are heading to 100k cases a day.
Are you really too silly to spot the difference? I mean if you buy a ticket you could win the lottery this week - but if you take that and quit your job because you are heading to winning the jackpot then don't blame me.
‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’
“… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.
… The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.
… At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.
… “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
A decent mask and staying in the same carriage is probably a better risk (and less hassle).
My advert would be a bloke or woman sitting at home while his friends are out partying and posting it on social media with him scrolling through. FOMO is what will drive young people to get vaccinated. None of them really believe it's going to happen and that they'll find a way to get in without the vaccine passport etc...
We've never seen such a fall in cases before without lockdown, we've virtually broken the link between cases and deaths thanks to vaccines, and vaccinations are still going out which means every week that passes weakens that link further.
Plus its summer, plus what there is of an exit wave is happening now rather than over winter when we have to deal with the return of the flu.
Its time to stop obsessing over Covid and start thinking about other things that matter more instead.
This has been explained time and again but the Brexit Britain hating remainers just want any reason to hate the UK. The countries that are most likely to be where the next variant pops up are places like Russia and India where cases are high and vaccination rates are low but there is also the semblance of a healthcare system if you can afford it.