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Are we rushing to premature conclusions about the latest COVID figures? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,288

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
    Unless they need to travel at rush hour for some reason, particularly the morning rush hour, the tubes are not crowded and therefore feel safe. If still worried, then changing carriages every couple of stops reduces your chance of prolonged exposure to anyone infected. And as Foxy says London is a good walking city, so they should check how long the walks would take instead.
    I'm not so sure with Delta that you need the x minute exposure that was true of other variants.

    A decent mask and staying in the same carriage is probably a better risk (and less hassle).
    Oh definitely wear a mask. Surprisingly few people go for FFP2 or N95 but they are less than £1 each from amazon, hardly see anyone in Foxys recommended FFP3 but would give further protection still.
    Its amazing how many people are voluntarily wearing the blue flimsy masks, very often incorrectly.
    I really don't see any point now in the silly blue masks, or cloth ones.

    Either get a decent FFP2/N95/FFP3 mask, or don't bother wearing a mask at all.

    Personally my choice is the latter, but I respect whatever choice others choose to make for themselves.
  • YoungTurkYoungTurk Posts: 158

    To see what will happen here you just need to look at India. The Delta variant has an arrowhead curve. Trying to find a human behaviour explanation for the virus just doing what it does is human nature but is pointless.
    We have no lockdown whatsoever, people are gathering close to each other, sporting events are jam packed yet cases are falling off a cliff. Look at Jakarta, daily cases dropped from 14,619 on Jul 12 to 2,662 on Jul 25. This curve will happen wherever Delta strikes

    Yes. It could be that the number of organisms an infection with delta has recently jumped through has a negative impact on its virulence. Fast up, fast down. Viruses mutate every time they replicate. They are not like bacteria. Chinese whispers?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,288
    One thing the government could have handled better is to publicise the benefits of FFP2/FFP3/N95 masks and explained the difference between the types of masks. I understand not doing so at the start of the pandemic when supply was limited, but you've been able to get them on Amazon now for a while if you choose to do so - so why not educate the public more on what the differences mean?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,934
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Foxy thanks for the info about beds taken out of the system for infection control purposes. Squares the circle.

    When did they bring it in and do you think it's a good idea?

    Over 10% of England's hospital beds is quite punchy at this time.
    To be honest, I am not quite sure what the NHS Providers have in mind when they talk of beds taken out for infection control. At my Trust this only happens with ward outbreaks, where new admissions are stopped until the ward is given the all clear.

    When surgery is cancelled due to redeployment of theatres staff and equipment to ICU, the wards usually remain full albeit not with surgical patients.
    Interesting my picture of it was like you see at the theatre, etc with every other bed taped off to increase social distancing.

    Interesting that you aren't seeing it in your Trust.

    A bit more digging is in order.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,288

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Japan have most golds?

    When was the last time they topped an Olympic table? I’m guessing the answer’s ‘never.’

    There seems to be considerable home advantage, even without crowds.
    It is very unlike Premier League football where the players have nearly all had access to excellent coaching from a young age. For the Olympics it is the funding and the buzz created years in advance in the host nation attracting and motivating young athletes that are the bigger drivers of home advantage rather than crowd or climate.
    Plus of course in the case of Japan (and certain other nations) their domestic athletes are conditioned to domestic conditions in the local climate.

    Reports that non-Japanese athletes are struggling with the Japanese climate, especially humidity, but the Japanese athletes would have trained most of their lives in that climate.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,979
    Texas state representative Jake Ellzey won the special election runoff in the 6th congressional district and is set to succeed late representative Ron Wright who died in February after contracting Covid-19.

    The results have dealt a blow to Donald Trump who endorsed rival Susan Wright, widow of the late congressman.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jake-ellzey-gop-trump-wright-b1891860.html
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,965

    One thing the government could have handled better is to publicise the benefits of FFP2/FFP3/N95 masks and explained the difference between the types of masks. I understand not doing so at the start of the pandemic when supply was limited, but you've been able to get them on Amazon now for a while if you choose to do so - so why not educate the public more on what the differences mean?

    As a country we are not even willing to routinely give NHS and care home staff FFP2 masks. Makes it a bit tricky for the govt to say how much better they are than those we provide the nurses.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,482

    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384

    Even for you this one is sad. Where did Keir Starmer get his "100k cases a day" figure from on the 19th? Thats right, from Health Secretary Javid on the 6th

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6

    So what you mean is that Sajid Javid's prediction that we were heading for 10k cases a day hasn't aged well. As you are consistent and not at all myopic you will of course now redirect your ire towards Javid won't you..?
    Health Secretary Javid said that we could see 100k cases a day (as a reasonable worst case scenario).

    Starmer took that, dropped the could, and said we are heading to 100k cases a day.

    Are you really too silly to spot the difference? I mean if you buy a ticket you could win the lottery this week - but if you take that and quit your job because you are heading to winning the jackpot then don't blame me.
    The stated fact in his comment was “ Boris Johnson's recklessness means we're going to have an NHS summer crisis.” So we’ll see. Maybe it is already in a crisis.

    Sir Keir & Labour’s ratings seem pegged to Covid deaths/cases. They’re doing well at the moment, as they did in the winter, because the cases have been going through the roof. But if his prophecies of doom turn out to be hopecasts, their fortunes will probably reverse.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,099
    DougSeal said:

    Fishing said:

    Keir Starmer’s prediction that we were heading for 100,000 cases per day hasn’t dated well so far.

    https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1417185971284496384

    The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations
    Actually hospitalisations have been rising.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
    Deaths lag cases shocker.
    Perhaps a clearer look at the data....

    image
    image
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,822
    edited July 28

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    1000% huh? Or 10x (or 11x if it's an increase of 1000% in addition to the original 100%). Cases in England as a whole went up ~15+ times (1500%, maybe 1400%) the six weeks before the peak.

    I mean that, if schools returning is going to be a problem then Scotland, with earlier return, will give England a bit of a heads up on that.

    Edit: This is the thing though. Those relatively lucky earlier (due to being more remote so lockdowns were very protective if there weren't significant cases already) will likely see bigger rises now compared to equally vaccinated populations as there will be less acquired immunity. If we open up, this will happen. Might be worth targeted campaigns if any of these areas lag on vaccinations due to lack of local experience of the virus being a big threat.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,283
    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    Not following you there David. Surely protecting the Highlands early in the pandemic bought time: time to get more vaccines in more arms. Hindering the progress of the virus has got to be good, and that is where Boris was slow, late and negligent.

    Surely the key message to take from this is: please please please don’t holiday in the Highlands yet!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,965

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Japan have most golds?

    When was the last time they topped an Olympic table? I’m guessing the answer’s ‘never.’

    There seems to be considerable home advantage, even without crowds.
    It is very unlike Premier League football where the players have nearly all had access to excellent coaching from a young age. For the Olympics it is the funding and the buzz created years in advance in the host nation attracting and motivating young athletes that are the bigger drivers of home advantage rather than crowd or climate.
    Plus of course in the case of Japan (and certain other nations) their domestic athletes are conditioned to domestic conditions in the local climate.

    Reports that non-Japanese athletes are struggling with the Japanese climate, especially humidity, but the Japanese athletes would have trained most of their lives in that climate.
    It will be favourable in some events but not sure it is a big factor so far. Golds from Judo x5, Swimming x2, Skateboarding x2, Softball and Table Tennis. Mostly indoors and no endurance sports.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319

    Texas state representative Jake Ellzey won the special election runoff in the 6th congressional district and is set to succeed late representative Ron Wright who died in February after contracting Covid-19.

    The results have dealt a blow to Donald Trump who endorsed rival Susan Wright, widow of the late congressman.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jake-ellzey-gop-trump-wright-b1891860.html

    The Trump endorsement kiss of death again.

    Although it must be said that turnout was absolutely tiny,
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,956
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
    Unless they need to travel at rush hour for some reason, particularly the morning rush hour, the tubes are not crowded and therefore feel safe. If still worried, then changing carriages every couple of stops reduces your chance of prolonged exposure to anyone infected. And as Foxy says London is a good walking city, so they should check how long the walks would take instead.
    I'm not so sure with Delta that you need the x minute exposure that was true of other variants.

    A decent mask and staying in the same carriage is probably a better risk (and less hassle).
    Much higher viral shedding (up to 1000x) by infectious individuals almost certainly accounts for that.

    I was a bit shocked to hear that one of my son's (twenty-something) acquaintances died of COVID this week.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,258

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    Not following you there David. Surely protecting the Highlands early in the pandemic bought time: time to get more vaccines in more arms. Hindering the progress of the virus has got to be good, and that is where Boris was slow, late and negligent.

    Surely the key message to take from this is: please please please don’t holiday in the Highlands yet!
    No it absolutely isn't. One of my friends is going mountain biking near Fort William. As I think I have mentioned before there was not a camp site within 40 miles of Fort William which had a space in the time he wanted to go. The Highlands are going to be chokka for the whole of the summer with staycautoners and it will save thousands of jobs. They could be having one of their best summers ever and boy do they need it.

    I agree that vaccinations were and are important in reducing the seriousness of infections but shutting areas off is not the answer as Australia and NZ are now finding to their cost. We need to get back to business and holidays and fun and life.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,179
    edited July 28

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    Not following you there David. Surely protecting the Highlands early in the pandemic bought time: time to get more vaccines in more arms. Hindering the progress of the virus has got to be good, and that is where Boris was slow, late and negligent.

    Surely the key message to take from this is: please please please don’t holiday in the Highlands yet!
    So what are they supposed to live on for the next year given tourism makes up so much of the Highlands’ economy? Small glasses of whisky and vaccines?

    That’s the downside...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,965
    Alistair said:

    Texas state representative Jake Ellzey won the special election runoff in the 6th congressional district and is set to succeed late representative Ron Wright who died in February after contracting Covid-19.

    The results have dealt a blow to Donald Trump who endorsed rival Susan Wright, widow of the late congressman.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jake-ellzey-gop-trump-wright-b1891860.html

    The Trump endorsement kiss of death again.

    Although it must be said that turnout was absolutely tiny,
    And that the non Trump candidate also "believes" that the election was stolen.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,149

    One thing the government could have handled better is to publicise the benefits of FFP2/FFP3/N95 masks and explained the difference between the types of masks. I understand not doing so at the start of the pandemic when supply was limited, but you've been able to get them on Amazon now for a while if you choose to do so - so why not educate the public more on what the differences mean?

    The Government has for far too long been extolling the benefits of any form of face covering. They cannot now say those face coverings that we told you to wear for the past year are pretty pointless, what you need is a FFP3 mask.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,515
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
    Unless they need to travel at rush hour for some reason, particularly the morning rush hour, the tubes are not crowded and therefore feel safe. If still worried, then changing carriages every couple of stops reduces your chance of prolonged exposure to anyone infected. And as Foxy says London is a good walking city, so they should check how long the walks would take instead.
    I'm not so sure with Delta that you need the x minute exposure that was true of other variants.

    A decent mask and staying in the same carriage is probably a better risk (and less hassle).
    Much higher viral shedding (up to 1000x) by infectious individuals almost certainly accounts for that.

    I was a bit shocked to hear that one of my son's (twenty-something) acquaintances died of COVID this week.
    It might help persuade the youngsters if a bit more was made of young people dying, especially if they were otherwise well.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,182
    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,934
    edited July 28
    NHS CEO Chris Hopson said this:

    The NHS is currently operating with significant capacity constraints. “Long term lost beds” due to infection control measures. But also “temporary void” beds that can’t be used as covid patient numbers rise. EG 2 covid patients in an 8 bed ward takes out 6 other beds…

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1413000350953582592

    @Foxy hasn't seen this in his Trust and doesn't know what "lost beds due to infection control" means.

    Doing some more digging here. Presumably it is happening throughout England because Hopson said 15,000 beds were lost on account of "infection control".

    And if so it makes sense to square the circle between stated bed capacity (120,000), utilisation (approx 80% currently and for some time) and the NHS supposedly being overrun.

    Yesterday, @Malmesbury said that many Trusts were operating at over 100% capacity but this doesn't show up in the figures.

    Wait out.

    Edit: govt infection control measures seem not to include taking beds out of circulation, but of screens between beds in wards.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/990923/20210602_Infection_Prevention_and_Control_Guidance_for_maintaining_services_with_H_and_C_settings__1_.pdf

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,956

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,182
    Nigelb said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
    I do wonder what the downsides for this is - chopped-up fishes and acoustic noise pollution confusing whales and dolphins on porpoise?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,099
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    Not following you there David. Surely protecting the Highlands early in the pandemic bought time: time to get more vaccines in more arms. Hindering the progress of the virus has got to be good, and that is where Boris was slow, late and negligent.

    Surely the key message to take from this is: please please please don’t holiday in the Highlands yet!
    No it absolutely isn't. One of my friends is going mountain biking near Fort William. As I think I have mentioned before there was not a camp site within 40 miles of Fort William which had a space in the time he wanted to go. The Highlands are going to be chokka for the whole of the summer with staycautoners and it will save thousands of jobs. They could be having one of their best summers ever and boy do they need it.

    I agree that vaccinations were and are important in reducing the seriousness of infections but shutting areas off is not the answer as Australia and NZ are now finding to their cost. We need to get back to business and holidays and fun and life.
    Last week I went to Cornwall - instead of wandering around crowded tourists towns, went walking on the Coastal Path. For those who haven't done that, if you like your country walks - its brilliant.

    Ate out at some quiet county pubs off the tourist beat - outside for the glorious weather. Stayed in a cottage.

    Pretty sure I was more isolated than in London.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,822
    Nice. Also great to see the BBC again using the standard SI unit of almost anything, the double decker bus (this time for mass)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,208

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
    Unless they need to travel at rush hour for some reason, particularly the morning rush hour, the tubes are not crowded and therefore feel safe. If still worried, then changing carriages every couple of stops reduces your chance of prolonged exposure to anyone infected. And as Foxy says London is a good walking city, so they should check how long the walks would take instead.
    I'm not so sure with Delta that you need the x minute exposure that was true of other variants.

    A decent mask and staying in the same carriage is probably a better risk (and less hassle).
    Oh definitely wear a mask. Surprisingly few people go for FFP2 or N95 but they are less than £1 each from amazon, hardly see anyone in Foxys recommended FFP3 but would give further protection still.
    Its amazing how many people are voluntarily wearing the blue flimsy masks, very often incorrectly.
    I really don't see any point now in the silly blue masks, or cloth ones.

    Either get a decent FFP2/N95/FFP3 mask, or don't bother wearing a mask at all.

    Personally my choice is the latter, but I respect whatever choice others choose to make for themselves.
    You don’t seem to respect the choice of those who wear pointless ‘silly blue masks, or cloth ones’ very much.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,934
    Oh and on topic. We absolutely are rushing to premature conclusions. But that is human nature for you.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,535

    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
    Unless they need to travel at rush hour for some reason, particularly the morning rush hour, the tubes are not crowded and therefore feel safe. If still worried, then changing carriages every couple of stops reduces your chance of prolonged exposure to anyone infected. And as Foxy says London is a good walking city, so they should check how long the walks would take instead.
    I'm not so sure with Delta that you need the x minute exposure that was true of other variants.

    A decent mask and staying in the same carriage is probably a better risk (and less hassle).
    Much higher viral shedding (up to 1000x) by infectious individuals almost certainly accounts for that.

    I was a bit shocked to hear that one of my son's (twenty-something) acquaintances died of COVID this week.
    It might help persuade the youngsters if a bit more was made of young people dying, especially if they were otherwise well.
    Maybe it is a time for a shock and horror campaign focused on the young? Maybe it is a bad idea and poor psychology to try and scare them into getting the bloody jab. But everything else doesn't seem to work. I suggested last night a TV ad campaign with a young guy on a ventilator being told it is now too late to get the vaccine.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,208
    Alistair said:

    Texas state representative Jake Ellzey won the special election runoff in the 6th congressional district and is set to succeed late representative Ron Wright who died in February after contracting Covid-19.

    The results have dealt a blow to Donald Trump who endorsed rival Susan Wright, widow of the late congressman.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jake-ellzey-gop-trump-wright-b1891860.html

    The Trump endorsement kiss of death again.

    Although it must be said that turnout was absolutely tiny,
    What happened to more motivated Trump supporters?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,099
    Nigelb said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
    The ones that I think have a big future are the completely submerged ones - look like mini wind turbines on the bottom of the sea. The advantage of being completely submerged is being out of the wave action. I would wonder what will happen to this thing in a bad storm.

    When I worked in the oil industry, there was a procession of tidal generation projects. Generally the wave action would pound them to bits over time....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920
    The political challenge for the government is that the people most concerned about covid - quite understandably - are the older demographics who form the Tory voter base. All the polling shows they are the most cautious and most supportive of continued restrictions.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,282
    My late Father in law as far back as the 60's maintained that harnessing the tides in the Pentland Firth would be the energy source of the future

    He used to recount that on many times when returning to his home port of Lossiemouth from fishing in the west of Scotland he would experience times when his fishing boat would actually be going astern even with full engines due to the strength of the tides
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,965
    The special exemptions for pingdemic key workers is still not happening. I wonder if there is even any real attempt by the government to actually implement this when it will be superseded and become redundant in just over 2 weeks anyway. The announcements last Friday seem like they were purely to move the topic off the 24hr news cycles.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57916620
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,210

    To see what will happen here you just need to look at India. The Delta variant has an arrowhead curve. Trying to find a human behaviour explanation for the virus just doing what it does is human nature but is pointless.
    We have no lockdown whatsoever, people are gathering close to each other, sporting events are jam packed yet cases are falling off a cliff. Look at Jakarta, daily cases dropped from 14,619 on Jul 12 to 2,662 on Jul 25. This curve will happen wherever Delta strikes.

    The BBC news was funny last night with the reporter saying that Scientists were confused by what was happening,

    We saw the same in Ireland over Christmas without it being the Delta variant - because there was more social mixing. We had more social mixing for the football, and now we don't.

    Seems reasonable to think we would have more cases again if we had more social mixing again. You can have changes in social mixing rates without there being a change in legal restrictions regulating them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423
    Primoz Roglic - simply stunning
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,822
    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    StuartDickson already made this point, I think, but there will be many people in the Highlands who will still be alive next year thanks to having been vaccinated before their first exposure to Covid.

    In a world without vaccinations, lockdowns buy only some time to improve treatments and prevent health-service collapse. In a world of rapily developed vaccines, they will have saved many lives. A fire rated door doesn't save your life by itself if you're trapped in a burning building, but if the fire service are battling their way in then it could absolutely be the difference between living and dying.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,099

    My late Father in law as far back as the 60's maintained that harnessing the tides in the Pentland Firth would be the energy source of the future

    He used to recount that on many times when returning to his home port of Lossiemouth from fishing in the west of Scotland he would experience times when his fishing boat would actually be going astern even with full engines due to the strength of the tides
    The biggest problem with extracting energy from the sea is that the sea has so much energy in it.

    I recall one tidal experiment, where when told this, the designer started banging on about how it was made of 1/2 inch steel. The engineers from the oil company I worked for showed him some pictures of what the sea would do to 1 inch steel (and beyond)

    His experiment got installed, IIRC. Wave action tore it apart over a couple of months.

    The fully underwater tidal systems are the future, I think - out of the wave action zone.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,488

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Interesting - do the propellers operate in advance of the leading edge or behind the trailing edge? I can't work it out. The latter would be worse for fatigue, as the flow regime would not be uniform, but not as bad as if the outriggers were actually lift-generating wings (just been reading aboiut that very issue in the B-35 bomber of yore): presumably the thing is neutrally buoyant.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 2,628
    Think the most optimistic spin I can put on the TT is he's much smaller so should cope with the heat better. But when there's 4 seconds between 2nd and 5th, but the winner is 61 seconds clear it's pretty hard to feel much confidence in the validity of the performance.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,447
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/28/a-third-of-middle-aged-uk-adults-have-at-least-two-chronic-health-issues-study

    This is a first-order issue in the UK - chronic poor health in middle age is linked to Covid deaths of course but is also a massive health issue in itself, as well as a significant drag on the economy and a source of misery for millions. There is also strong evidence linking it to poverty and poor diet and ill health in childhood. Supporting poor children literally pays for itself many times over, yet the government has to be guilt-tripped into even meagre support by Marcus Rashford. Christ knows what the health of the food bank generation will look like by the time they are my age.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,897
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Foxy thanks for the info about beds taken out of the system for infection control purposes. Squares the circle.

    When did they bring it in and do you think it's a good idea?

    Over 10% of England's hospital beds is quite punchy at this time.
    To be honest, I am not quite sure what the NHS Providers have in mind when they talk of beds taken out for infection control. At my Trust this only happens with ward outbreaks, where new admissions are stopped until the ward is given the all clear.

    When surgery is cancelled due to redeployment of theatres staff and equipment to ICU, the wards usually remain full albeit not with surgical patients.
    I assumed it might be respacing of beds and/or moving departments around to create segregated areas but with a sub-optimal capacity utilisation as a result
  • isamisam Posts: 38,482

    Nigelb said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
    I do wonder what the downsides for this is - chopped-up fishes and acoustic noise pollution confusing whales and dolphins on porpoise?
    Just to say I agreed with some comments you made re the madness of trying to blame governments for Covid decisions as if there were any easy answers. Also that in the row that caused you to stop commenting, I wasn’t taking the mickey out of your real name as it is my Dads name and my middle name as well
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,488

    My late Father in law as far back as the 60's maintained that harnessing the tides in the Pentland Firth would be the energy source of the future

    He used to recount that on many times when returning to his home port of Lossiemouth from fishing in the west of Scotland he would experience times when his fishing boat would actually be going astern even with full engines due to the strength of the tides
    Happy memories of sailing in the Coirebhreacain area and seeing a yacht under full sail going backwards in the Dorus Mor tidal current.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,283
    So pleased to see Primož Roglič winning gold in the ITT. That solidifies the European Union lead in the medal tallies.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,488
    edited July 28

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/28/a-third-of-middle-aged-uk-adults-have-at-least-two-chronic-health-issues-study

    This is a first-order issue in the UK - chronic poor health in middle age is linked to Covid deaths of course but is also a massive health issue in itself, as well as a significant drag on the economy and a source of misery for millions. There is also strong evidence linking it to poverty and poor diet and ill health in childhood. Supporting poor children literally pays for itself many times over, yet the government has to be guilt-tripped into even meagre support by Marcus Rashford. Christ knows what the health of the food bank generation will look like by the time they are my age.

    PE has been talking about those issues in its coverage of the pandemic. To its credit. (Not sure about childhood feeding specifically, but I'm sure that is very much in the same spirit.)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,691
    Pulpstar said:

    Primoz Roglic - simply stunning

    Does it show that Wiggins's double of the TdF and the Olympic time trial gold in 2012 was very impressive? I've always thought that he was a bit fortunate to win the TdF, but he still did it and went on to win the time trial in London.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,934
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Foxy thanks for the info about beds taken out of the system for infection control purposes. Squares the circle.

    When did they bring it in and do you think it's a good idea?

    Over 10% of England's hospital beds is quite punchy at this time.
    To be honest, I am not quite sure what the NHS Providers have in mind when they talk of beds taken out for infection control. At my Trust this only happens with ward outbreaks, where new admissions are stopped until the ward is given the all clear.

    When surgery is cancelled due to redeployment of theatres staff and equipment to ICU, the wards usually remain full albeit not with surgical patients.
    I assumed it might be respacing of beds and/or moving departments around to create segregated areas but with a sub-optimal capacity utilisation as a result
    Yep same here. And that's what Hopson says: "EG 2 covid patients in an 8 bed ward takes out 6 other beds…"

    But the guidance for this doesn't appear to mention just that. And @Foxy hasn't seen it.

    I suppose one swallow, etc.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,288

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    4 of my son's friends went clubbing in London last week as a post school treat. 3 of them are now confirmed as having caught Covid, one quite badly and the fourth is self isolating. Its a pretty small sample but it does suggest that the opening of nightclubs is going to be a challenge to the figures. All of them had had 1 vaccine but in some cases too recently for it to give much protection.

    The original hope was that the vast majority of those who were fully vaxxed would not catch Covid at all. That does not seem to be happening. They do catch it but the symptoms are much less severe and death is almost unheard of. Whilst this is good news it does mean that we are not achieving the level of herd immunity from vaccines that we once hoped. It also means we have a lot of mainly minor cases to come.

    We are probably 2-3 days away from hospital admissions turning negative on a week to week basis too. The question is whether there will be sufficient potential victims left for a fourth wave in the autumn. I think, given the above, there will be, unfortunately.

    Yes, I think that nightclubs are the main potential spreading events. It will be interesting to see if much comes out of Lattitude and other music festivals. Indoor music venues too come the autumn.

    I agree though about vaccinated folk. While obviously it gives major protection against hospitalisation, the effect on spreading seems much more modest.
    Son and girlfriend are going to London on Monday. They won't be going clubbing but they are worried about the tube. Hopefully it continues to be quieter. They are seriously considering using Uber instead given the risks. They are a sensible couple with their heads screwed on but it is going to be a worry.
    Unless they need to travel at rush hour for some reason, particularly the morning rush hour, the tubes are not crowded and therefore feel safe. If still worried, then changing carriages every couple of stops reduces your chance of prolonged exposure to anyone infected. And as Foxy says London is a good walking city, so they should check how long the walks would take instead.
    I'm not so sure with Delta that you need the x minute exposure that was true of other variants.

    A decent mask and staying in the same carriage is probably a better risk (and less hassle).
    Oh definitely wear a mask. Surprisingly few people go for FFP2 or N95 but they are less than £1 each from amazon, hardly see anyone in Foxys recommended FFP3 but would give further protection still.
    Its amazing how many people are voluntarily wearing the blue flimsy masks, very often incorrectly.
    I really don't see any point now in the silly blue masks, or cloth ones.

    Either get a decent FFP2/N95/FFP3 mask, or don't bother wearing a mask at all.

    Personally my choice is the latter, but I respect whatever choice others choose to make for themselves.
    You don’t seem to respect the choice of those who wear pointless ‘silly blue masks, or cloth ones’ very much.
    Wrong, I do.

    I would never go up to them and say "I think your mask choice is silly, I would either go get a better mask or don't bother with one by this stage". I can respect others choices without agreeing with them.

    Showing respect, and agreement, are two completely different concepts. If you only respect those you agree with then you're in for a very narrowminded life.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523

    One thing the government could have handled better is to publicise the benefits of FFP2/FFP3/N95 masks and explained the difference between the types of masks. I understand not doing so at the start of the pandemic when supply was limited, but you've been able to get them on Amazon now for a while if you choose to do so - so why not educate the public more on what the differences mean?

    The Government has for far too long been extolling the benefits of any form of face covering. They cannot now say those face coverings that we told you to wear for the past year are pretty pointless, what you need is a FFP3 mask.
    Of course they can say there is a better option now available. Truth is, early in the pandemic the NHS needed the best quality masks. Can you imagine the stink if itinerant flint-nappers had been strolling around doing their shopping in FFP3 masks - whilst nurses were having to tie a hanky in front of their faces?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,099

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/28/a-third-of-middle-aged-uk-adults-have-at-least-two-chronic-health-issues-study

    This is a first-order issue in the UK - chronic poor health in middle age is linked to Covid deaths of course but is also a massive health issue in itself, as well as a significant drag on the economy and a source of misery for millions. There is also strong evidence linking it to poverty and poor diet and ill health in childhood. Supporting poor children literally pays for itself many times over, yet the government has to be guilt-tripped into even meagre support by Marcus Rashford. Christ knows what the health of the food bank generation will look like by the time they are my age.

    Not entirely - there are quite a few people who "let themselves go" in their 40s & 50s. Not just poor people....

    There are also a very large number of people with chronic medical conditions - due to modern medicine, providing they take their medication, you can meet them and never know.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,210

    Nigelb said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
    I do wonder what the downsides for this is - chopped-up fishes and acoustic noise pollution confusing whales and dolphins on porpoise?
    One of the main stumbling blocks has been surviving the marine environment. They have to work for long enough to earn their keep.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,802
    Pulpstar said:

    Primoz Roglic - simply stunning

    Dopers making it obvious who's doping, though.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,283
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    1000% huh? Or 10x (or 11x if it's an increase of 1000% in addition to the original 100%). Cases in England as a whole went up ~15+ times (1500%, maybe 1400%) the six weeks before the peak.

    I mean that, if schools returning is going to be a problem then Scotland, with earlier return, will give England a bit of a heads up on that.

    Edit: This is the thing though. Those relatively lucky earlier (due to being more remote so lockdowns were very protective if there weren't significant cases already) will likely see bigger rises now compared to equally vaccinated populations as there will be less acquired immunity. If we open up, this will happen. Might be worth targeted campaigns if any of these areas lag on vaccinations due to lack of local experience of the virus being a big threat.
    Agreed that the Herald headline is pure clickbait trash statistics. They have really, really plunged downhill in the last five years. It used to be a quality broadsheet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523
    Labour is not in the business of Covid forecasts.

    Their business is fearcasts.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,288

    One thing the government could have handled better is to publicise the benefits of FFP2/FFP3/N95 masks and explained the difference between the types of masks. I understand not doing so at the start of the pandemic when supply was limited, but you've been able to get them on Amazon now for a while if you choose to do so - so why not educate the public more on what the differences mean?

    The Government has for far too long been extolling the benefits of any form of face covering. They cannot now say those face coverings that we told you to wear for the past year are pretty pointless, what you need is a FFP3 mask.
    Except they weren't pretty pointless. They were massively valuable earlier in the pandemic, when better quality masks weren't available and when vaccines weren't available they were the best option at the time.

    That's no longer the case now, but it was then.

    As the situation evolves, so can and should standards and expectations.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    edited July 28

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Japan have most golds?

    When was the last time they topped an Olympic table? I’m guessing the answer’s ‘never.’

    There seems to be considerable home advantage, even without crowds.
    It is very unlike Premier League football where the players have nearly all had access to excellent coaching from a young age. For the Olympics it is the funding and the buzz created years in advance in the host nation attracting and motivating young athletes that are the bigger drivers of home advantage rather than crowd or climate.
    Plus of course in the case of Japan (and certain other nations) their domestic athletes are conditioned to domestic conditions in the local climate.

    Reports that non-Japanese athletes are struggling with the Japanese climate, especially humidity, but the Japanese athletes would have trained most of their lives in that climate.
    It will be favourable in some events but not sure it is a big factor so far. Golds from Judo x5, Swimming x2, Skateboarding x2, Softball and Table Tennis. Mostly indoors and no endurance sports.
    As well as climate, familiarity with the facilities – tracks, pools and arenas – might be a factor. On that note, the men's golf starts today and Japanese golfer Hideki Matsuyama can be backed at 12 or 14/1. Matsuyama won the US Masters in April so is a leading contender even without home advantage.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hideki_Matsuyama

    (One feature of golf betting these days is that bookmakers offer many places in each-way markets, and Betfair has markets for top 10 and top 20 finishes. I've not used them.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,488
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    StuartDickson already made this point, I think, but there will be many people in the Highlands who will still be alive next year thanks to having been vaccinated before their first exposure to Covid.

    In a world without vaccinations, lockdowns buy only some time to improve treatments and prevent health-service collapse. In a world of rapily developed vaccines, they will have saved many lives. A fire rated door doesn't save your life by itself if you're trapped in a burning building, but if the fire service are battling their way in then it could absolutely be the difference between living and dying.
    There is also a very important issue in the H&Is - the often huge distances (compounded by ferry trips etc) to hospitals. So they are all the more vulnerable. The prevention of serious outbreaks in the first stages was actually a very good thing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,508

    Nigelb said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
    The ones that I think have a big future are the completely submerged ones - look like mini wind turbines on the bottom of the sea. The advantage of being completely submerged is being out of the wave action. I would wonder what will happen to this thing in a bad storm.

    When I worked in the oil industry, there was a procession of tidal generation projects. Generally the wave action would pound them to bits over time....
    The plan to install one off the south coast of the island here is moving ahead again, after the previous consortium collapsed. The NIMBY campaign opposing the project is also up and running.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,869

    The political challenge for the government is that the people most concerned about covid - quite understandably - are the older demographics who form the Tory voter base. All the polling shows they are the most cautious and most supportive of continued restrictions.

    All the polling shows they are the most cautious and most supportive of continued restrictions on other people.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,584

    So pleased to see Primož Roglič winning gold in the ITT. That solidifies the European Union lead in the medal tallies.

    Sorry? The highest EU team is France, who are 8th.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,288
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    StuartDickson already made this point, I think, but there will be many people in the Highlands who will still be alive next year thanks to having been vaccinated before their first exposure to Covid.

    In a world without vaccinations, lockdowns buy only some time to improve treatments and prevent health-service collapse. In a world of rapily developed vaccines, they will have saved many lives. A fire rated door doesn't save your life by itself if you're trapped in a burning building, but if the fire service are battling their way in then it could absolutely be the difference between living and dying.
    Indeed and this is what @NerysHughes fails to understand about facemasks, that is absolutely the same concept.

    The difference is the time for the firedoor/facemask has passed. Now the firefighters (vaccines) have made it to us and we have other options available meaning we don't need masks anymore or can put on better ones. That wasn't the case in the past.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,283
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    Not following you there David. Surely protecting the Highlands early in the pandemic bought time: time to get more vaccines in more arms. Hindering the progress of the virus has got to be good, and that is where Boris was slow, late and negligent.

    Surely the key message to take from this is: please please please don’t holiday in the Highlands yet!
    No it absolutely isn't. One of my friends is going mountain biking near Fort William. As I think I have mentioned before there was not a camp site within 40 miles of Fort William which had a space in the time he wanted to go. The Highlands are going to be chokka for the whole of the summer with staycautoners and it will save thousands of jobs. They could be having one of their best summers ever and boy do they need it.

    I agree that vaccinations were and are important in reducing the seriousness of infections but shutting areas off is not the answer as Australia and NZ are now finding to their cost. We need to get back to business and holidays and fun and life.
    Not much “fun” for the staff and patients in Raigmore, Belford, Caithness General etc.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,488
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
    The ones that I think have a big future are the completely submerged ones - look like mini wind turbines on the bottom of the sea. The advantage of being completely submerged is being out of the wave action. I would wonder what will happen to this thing in a bad storm.

    When I worked in the oil industry, there was a procession of tidal generation projects. Generally the wave action would pound them to bits over time....
    The plan to install one off the south coast of the island here is moving ahead again, after the previous consortium collapsed. The NIMBY campaign opposing the project is also up and running.
    What are the nimbies complaining about? The thing will be uinderwater, the odd warning triangle on a pole on the beach aside.

    It';s not as if Elon Musk wants to reopen the rocket testing site at Scratchells Cliff, is it?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,508
    Selebian said:

    Nice. Also great to see the BBC again using the standard SI unit of almost anything, the double decker bus (this time for mass)
    Well, you can't really weigh Wales.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,283
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    Not following you there David. Surely protecting the Highlands early in the pandemic bought time: time to get more vaccines in more arms. Hindering the progress of the virus has got to be good, and that is where Boris was slow, late and negligent.

    Surely the key message to take from this is: please please please don’t holiday in the Highlands yet!
    So what are they supposed to live on for the next year given tourism makes up so much of the Highlands’ economy? Small glasses of whisky and vaccines?

    That’s the downside...
    That’s what taxation is for. HMG is good at taking but shite at giving.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,099
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
    The ones that I think have a big future are the completely submerged ones - look like mini wind turbines on the bottom of the sea. The advantage of being completely submerged is being out of the wave action. I would wonder what will happen to this thing in a bad storm.

    When I worked in the oil industry, there was a procession of tidal generation projects. Generally the wave action would pound them to bits over time....
    The plan to install one off the south coast of the island here is moving ahead again, after the previous consortium collapsed. The NIMBY campaign opposing the project is also up and running.
    What are the NIMBYs opposing it for?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,288
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Primoz Roglic - simply stunning

    Dopers making it obvious who's doping, though.
    Its irritating that the Russians are being allowed to compete under the title ROC. They're supposed to be banned for being systemic dope cheats.

    If the ultimate sanction of banning them from an entire olympics can be circumvented by just renaming their team from Russia to Russian Olympic Committee then what is the frigging point in the ban? And what message does that send to systemic dope cheats?

    They should have been barred for this games, no ifs or buts.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,822
    edited July 28
    Carnyx said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Interesting - do the propellers operate in advance of the leading edge or behind the trailing edge? I can't work it out. The latter would be worse for fatigue, as the flow regime would not be uniform, but not as bad as if the outriggers were actually lift-generating wings (just been reading aboiut that very issue in the B-35 bomber of yore): presumably the thing is neutrally buoyant.
    If it's fixed in position, then both depending on whether the tide is going in or out? If it's tethered so that it can reorientate downstream of the tethers then it looks like it would stabilise with the turbines behind the trailing edge - and this picture https://orbitalmarine.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/O2-ARRIVAL-ORKNEY-7-700x550.jpg from https://orbitalmarine.com/o2/ also supports that if that's it in-situ (flow seems to be from short to long end, which means trailing edge) not still being towed (the blades would likely be in maintenance position on the surface if towed?).

    Edit: maybe the blades are on the surface and it is under tow. But even then, it would likely tow in the same orientation that water would flow?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,288

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    Not following you there David. Surely protecting the Highlands early in the pandemic bought time: time to get more vaccines in more arms. Hindering the progress of the virus has got to be good, and that is where Boris was slow, late and negligent.

    Surely the key message to take from this is: please please please don’t holiday in the Highlands yet!
    So what are they supposed to live on for the next year given tourism makes up so much of the Highlands’ economy? Small glasses of whisky and vaccines?

    That’s the downside...
    That’s what taxation is for. HMG is good at taking but shite at giving.
    Who would you be taxing if you're shutting down the economy even post-vaccinations? 🙄
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,559
    edited July 28
    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour MP Rosie Duffield is investigated by her party for liking tweet that said trans people were 'mostly heterosexuals cosplaying'

    Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield, 50, is facing a backlash from activists
    LGBT+ Labour pressured Sir Keir Starmer to remove the whip from Ms Duffield"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9832829/Labour-MP-Rosie-Duffield-investigated-party-liking-tweet.html

    The tweet which Rosie liked doesn’t actually mention trans people directly.

    I’m so sick of hearing about how “queer” has been reclaimed. I had that word spit in my face as recently as 2018. And look at WHO is reclaiming it? Mostly heterosexuals cosplaying as the opposite sex and as “gay”.

    It’s possible to read “heterosexuals cosplaying as the opposite sex” as a slur on trans people I suppose, but it’s also possible to read it otherwise.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,210

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    StuartDickson already made this point, I think, but there will be many people in the Highlands who will still be alive next year thanks to having been vaccinated before their first exposure to Covid.

    In a world without vaccinations, lockdowns buy only some time to improve treatments and prevent health-service collapse. In a world of rapily developed vaccines, they will have saved many lives. A fire rated door doesn't save your life by itself if you're trapped in a burning building, but if the fire service are battling their way in then it could absolutely be the difference between living and dying.
    Indeed and this is what @NerysHughes fails to understand about facemasks, that is absolutely the same concept.

    The difference is the time for the firedoor/facemask has passed. Now the firefighters (vaccines) have made it to us and we have other options available meaning we don't need masks anymore or can put on better ones. That wasn't the case in the past.
    On that analogy, have you seen this cartoon?

    https://m.imgur.com/gallery/yjuslPH
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,099
    edited July 28
    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
    The ones that I think have a big future are the completely submerged ones - look like mini wind turbines on the bottom of the sea. The advantage of being completely submerged is being out of the wave action. I would wonder what will happen to this thing in a bad storm.

    When I worked in the oil industry, there was a procession of tidal generation projects. Generally the wave action would pound them to bits over time....
    The plan to install one off the south coast of the island here is moving ahead again, after the previous consortium collapsed. The NIMBY campaign opposing the project is also up and running.
    What are the nimbies complaining about? The thing will be uinderwater, the odd warning triangle on a pole on the beach aside.

    It';s not as if Elon Musk wants to reopen the rocket testing site at Scratchells Cliff, is it?
    I wonder what the ISP of NIMBY/LOX rocket propellant combination is..... Mind you, that would be a hybrid solid and probably a bad idea....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,979
    At age 50 plus, 703 fully vaccinated hospital admissions are from a population of 19.1 million. Meanwhile, 458 unvaccinated are from a population of just 1.0 million.

    https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1420074361965395975?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,288

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    StuartDickson already made this point, I think, but there will be many people in the Highlands who will still be alive next year thanks to having been vaccinated before their first exposure to Covid.

    In a world without vaccinations, lockdowns buy only some time to improve treatments and prevent health-service collapse. In a world of rapily developed vaccines, they will have saved many lives. A fire rated door doesn't save your life by itself if you're trapped in a burning building, but if the fire service are battling their way in then it could absolutely be the difference between living and dying.
    Indeed and this is what @NerysHughes fails to understand about facemasks, that is absolutely the same concept.

    The difference is the time for the firedoor/facemask has passed. Now the firefighters (vaccines) have made it to us and we have other options available meaning we don't need masks anymore or can put on better ones. That wasn't the case in the past.
    On that analogy, have you seen this cartoon?

    https://m.imgur.com/gallery/yjuslPH
    LOL no, that is fantastic! 😂
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,776
    Talking of newspapers, does anyone know how to read die Zeit.

    There's a glorious faceplant of an article by Bettina Schulz (who I thought reputable) starting thusly:

    The pandemic as an excuse for empty supermarket shelves

    Great Britain is in crisis, the new wave of infections is affecting countless industries. The government does not want to admit that many problems are due to Brexit.

    An analysis by Bettina Schulz , London

    For a long time the British supermarkets were able to hide their misery. For months, pasta, canned soups, avocados or honey were pushed onto the shelves so skilfully that it wasn't even noticeable how meager the selection really was. It is no longer possible, because now the employees are also missing. So there is no one who has time to sort the meager range of goods into Potemkin villages in a land of milk and honey.
    ...

    https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-07/grossbritannien-corona-krise-lieferengpaesse-supermaerkte-brexit-delta-personalmangel-pingedemic
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,508
    edited July 28
    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
    The ones that I think have a big future are the completely submerged ones - look like mini wind turbines on the bottom of the sea. The advantage of being completely submerged is being out of the wave action. I would wonder what will happen to this thing in a bad storm.

    When I worked in the oil industry, there was a procession of tidal generation projects. Generally the wave action would pound them to bits over time....
    The plan to install one off the south coast of the island here is moving ahead again, after the previous consortium collapsed. The NIMBY campaign opposing the project is also up and running.
    What are the nimbies complaining about? The thing will be uinderwater, the odd warning triangle on a pole on the beach aside.

    It';s not as if Elon Musk wants to reopen the rocket testing site at Scratchells Cliff, is it?
    The potential damage and disruption that would be caused by the construction is a key motivator. The cables will be buried underground but will have to come onshore and would involve digging through an AONB. There'd be a transformer building constructed adjacent to a meadow next to the park, and people are worried about it buzzing. Then there's the impact on the skyline - you'd see a line of rig type structures above the horizon about two miles out from St Catherine's. Then there are a collection of theories about impact on tidal flows and fishing stocks, based on not very much, that has the fishermen campaigning against (having shot themselves utterly in the foot with Brexit one beings to wonder about their judgement tbh). It doesn't take much to get a campaign against anything going, here.

    https://www.countypress.co.uk/news/19356299.residents-concerns-isle-wights-ptec-tidal-scheme/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,934

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    StuartDickson already made this point, I think, but there will be many people in the Highlands who will still be alive next year thanks to having been vaccinated before their first exposure to Covid.

    In a world without vaccinations, lockdowns buy only some time to improve treatments and prevent health-service collapse. In a world of rapily developed vaccines, they will have saved many lives. A fire rated door doesn't save your life by itself if you're trapped in a burning building, but if the fire service are battling their way in then it could absolutely be the difference between living and dying.
    Indeed and this is what @NerysHughes fails to understand about facemasks, that is absolutely the same concept.

    The difference is the time for the firedoor/facemask has passed. Now the firefighters (vaccines) have made it to us and we have other options available meaning we don't need masks anymore or can put on better ones. That wasn't the case in the past.
    On that analogy, have you seen this cartoon?

    https://m.imgur.com/gallery/yjuslPH
    Naughty. An 18-yr old would be sitting there with a fag stubbed out in an ashtray and a jug of water on the table.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,182

    My late Father in law as far back as the 60's maintained that harnessing the tides in the Pentland Firth would be the energy source of the future

    He used to recount that on many times when returning to his home port of Lossiemouth from fishing in the west of Scotland he would experience times when his fishing boat would actually be going astern even with full engines due to the strength of the tides
    My granddad had a similar story. He was on an old merchantman in a convoy going through the English Channel during the war. There was a storm, and after a day they were further back than they had been before, and they were alone as the convoy had steamed well ahead. I don't know much more about the story, but as he was a gunner in DEMS it must have meant a long shift at the guns - unless the weather was so bad German planes couldn't fly and the submarines couldn't easily attack.

    I wish I'd talked more about it with him whilst he was alive.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,283
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:

    We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more cases.

    Wrong. We have not seen a fall in cases without a lockdown of some description.

    This is key. It suggests non-lockdown ways to deal with future cases, barring some super variant.

    Is it effective herd immunity under the pre-19 July restrictions?

    Is it people self-restricting a bit in response to rising cases?

    Is it closing schools?

    If the first, then we're not that far off herd immunity levels and after perhaps another peak we'll get there.

    If it's the second, that will kick in again likely if cases rise fast (so no more legal restrictions needed)

    If it's the third we've got several weeks for more vaccinations in adults, lowering the possible R and will (in England) get warning from Scotland and can review the under 18 vaccine policy if needed.
    Is this the kind of ”warning from Scotland” you were referring to?

    ‘ Covid Scotland: Tourist hotspot virus fears as Highland cases up 1000% in six weeks’

    “… fears that the easing of restrictions is linked to the surge in infections as tourists flock to the area.

    … The Highlands has generally had lower cases throughout the pandemic but has suffered greatly in recent weeks – with many blaming the easing of lockdown restrictions and the start of the school holidays.

    … At the start of July, cases were so high in the area that the biggest hospital in the Highlands, Raigmore, was placed into a rare “Code Black” status.

    … “Incoming visitors particularly from higher prevalence areas will of course have also contributed.”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19470557.covid-scotland-tourist-hotspot-virus-fears-highland-cases-1000-six-weeks/
    My wife was born in Raigmore.

    This seems to me yet another example of the futility of early and prolonged lockdowns. They protected the Highlands earlier in the pandemic but simply make them more vulnerable now. Since tourism is their largest single industry there is no way that they can escape this. People who criticise Boris for being slow, late, whatever, really need to come to terms with the fact that stopping the virus at one point in time does not make it go away.
    StuartDickson already made this point, I think, but there will be many people in the Highlands who will still be alive next year thanks to having been vaccinated before their first exposure to Covid.

    In a world without vaccinations, lockdowns buy only some time to improve treatments and prevent health-service collapse. In a world of rapily developed vaccines, they will have saved many lives. A fire rated door doesn't save your life by itself if you're trapped in a burning building, but if the fire service are battling their way in then it could absolutely be the difference between living and dying.
    Spot on. I have worked for many years in the safety business (railways and road) and one of the basic principles in saving lives, property and the environment is time, especially buying time. If you can slow processes and routines down you allow other things to happen, eg thinking time, emergency or repair services to get going, the risk going away (eg vehicle or people leaving the track) etc. It is the main reason you reduce the speed of trains or road vehicles in higher risk situations

    Sturgeon and Drakeford bought time. Johnson spaffed time up the wall.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,869
    MattW said:

    Talking of newspapers, does anyone know how to read die Zeit.

    There's a glorious faceplant of an article by Bettina Schulz (who I thought reputable) starting thusly:

    The pandemic as an excuse for empty supermarket shelves

    Great Britain is in crisis, the new wave of infections is affecting countless industries. The government does not want to admit that many problems are due to Brexit.

    An analysis by Bettina Schulz , London

    For a long time the British supermarkets were able to hide their misery. For months, pasta, canned soups, avocados or honey were pushed onto the shelves so skilfully that it wasn't even noticeable how meager the selection really was. It is no longer possible, because now the employees are also missing. So there is no one who has time to sort the meager range of goods into Potemkin villages in a land of milk and honey.
    ...

    https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-07/grossbritannien-corona-krise-lieferengpaesse-supermaerkte-brexit-delta-personalmangel-pingedemic

    The derangement is strong in this one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,956

    Nigelb said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
    I do wonder what the downsides for this is - chopped-up fishes and acoustic noise pollution confusing whales and dolphins on porpoise?
    You'd need to dive into the specifications to be sure.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,199

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Primoz Roglic - simply stunning

    Dopers making it obvious who's doping, though.
    Its irritating that the Russians are being allowed to compete under the title ROC. They're supposed to be banned for being systemic dope cheats.

    If the ultimate sanction of banning them from an entire olympics can be circumvented by just renaming their team from Russia to Russian Olympic Committee then what is the frigging point in the ban? And what message does that send to systemic dope cheats?

    They should have been barred for this games, no ifs or buts.
    Only competitors from those sports which are (relatively, anyway) clean are allowed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,423
    edited July 28
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Primoz Roglic - simply stunning

    Dopers making it obvious who's doping, though.
    Roglic used the road race purely as a warm up and only rode a few days in the tour de France; and crucially rode a far more even paced race than his competitors - clearly his focus was solely this race unlike a fair few of his competitors... He also received slipstream/slingshot assistance from Asgreen a few points into the second lap. He was also ranked #1 rider in the world prior to Pogacar's TdF win.

    There's no more reason to think he's doping than Wout Van Aert, Carapaz, Pogacar or Vinegaard frankly.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,351
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. W, that's appalling. Absolutely appalling. Unforgivable, perhaps.

    It's meagre*. And they spell it the American way! Shameful.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,869

    At age 50 plus, 703 fully vaccinated hospital admissions are from a population of 19.1 million. Meanwhile, 458 unvaccinated are from a population of just 1.0 million.

    https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1420074361965395975?s=20

    About a 95% reduction in hospitalisations.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,794

    MattW said:

    Talking of newspapers, does anyone know how to read die Zeit.

    There's a glorious faceplant of an article by Bettina Schulz (who I thought reputable) starting thusly:

    The pandemic as an excuse for empty supermarket shelves

    Great Britain is in crisis, the new wave of infections is affecting countless industries. The government does not want to admit that many problems are due to Brexit.

    An analysis by Bettina Schulz , London

    For a long time the British supermarkets were able to hide their misery. For months, pasta, canned soups, avocados or honey were pushed onto the shelves so skilfully that it wasn't even noticeable how meager the selection really was. It is no longer possible, because now the employees are also missing. So there is no one who has time to sort the meager range of goods into Potemkin villages in a land of milk and honey.
    ...

    https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-07/grossbritannien-corona-krise-lieferengpaesse-supermaerkte-brexit-delta-personalmangel-pingedemic

    The derangement is strong in this one.
    Yep - sat in London but leading on a photo from Glasgow so there is zero actual context especially as it looks like the shelves are down for other reasons.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour MP Rosie Duffield is investigated by her party for liking tweet that said trans people were 'mostly heterosexuals cosplaying'

    Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield, 50, is facing a backlash from activists
    LGBT+ Labour pressured Sir Keir Starmer to remove the whip from Ms Duffield"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9832829/Labour-MP-Rosie-Duffield-investigated-party-liking-tweet.html

    The tweet which Rosie liked doesn’t actually mention trans people directly.

    I’m so sick of hearing about how “queer” has been reclaimed. I had that word spit in my face as recently as 2018. And look at WHO is reclaiming it? Mostly heterosexuals cosplaying as the opposite sex and as “gay”.

    It’s possible to read “heterosexuals cosplaying as the opposite sex” as a slur on trans people I suppose, but it’s also possible to read it otherwise.
    For the avoidance of doubt


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,182

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour MP Rosie Duffield is investigated by her party for liking tweet that said trans people were 'mostly heterosexuals cosplaying'

    Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield, 50, is facing a backlash from activists
    LGBT+ Labour pressured Sir Keir Starmer to remove the whip from Ms Duffield"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9832829/Labour-MP-Rosie-Duffield-investigated-party-liking-tweet.html

    The tweet which Rosie liked doesn’t actually mention trans people directly.

    I’m so sick of hearing about how “queer” has been reclaimed. I had that word spit in my face as recently as 2018. And look at WHO is reclaiming it? Mostly heterosexuals cosplaying as the opposite sex and as “gay”.

    It’s possible to read “heterosexuals cosplaying as the opposite sex” as a slur on trans people I suppose, but it’s also possible to read it otherwise.
    The problem is that that tweet can be read many ways, and few of them pleasant. Anyone with any political nous would read it and think: "there be dragons", then ignore it rather than like it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,199

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour MP Rosie Duffield is investigated by her party for liking tweet that said trans people were 'mostly heterosexuals cosplaying'

    Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield, 50, is facing a backlash from activists
    LGBT+ Labour pressured Sir Keir Starmer to remove the whip from Ms Duffield"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9832829/Labour-MP-Rosie-Duffield-investigated-party-liking-tweet.html

    The tweet which Rosie liked doesn’t actually mention trans people directly.

    I’m so sick of hearing about how “queer” has been reclaimed. I had that word spit in my face as recently as 2018. And look at WHO is reclaiming it? Mostly heterosexuals cosplaying as the opposite sex and as “gay”.

    It’s possible to read “heterosexuals cosplaying as the opposite sex” as a slur on trans people I suppose, but it’s also possible to read it otherwise.
    Hasn't that, or something like it, been an issue in several places? 'Transgender men' being allowed into women only spaces and so on, and then abusing?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,099

    My late Father in law as far back as the 60's maintained that harnessing the tides in the Pentland Firth would be the energy source of the future

    He used to recount that on many times when returning to his home port of Lossiemouth from fishing in the west of Scotland he would experience times when his fishing boat would actually be going astern even with full engines due to the strength of the tides
    My granddad had a similar story. He was on an old merchantman in a convoy going through the English Channel during the war. There was a storm, and after a day they were further back than they had been before, and they were alone as the convoy had steamed well ahead. I don't know much more about the story, but as he was a gunner in DEMS it must have meant a long shift at the guns - unless the weather was so bad German planes couldn't fly and the submarines couldn't easily attack.

    I wish I'd talked more about it with him whilst he was alive.
    For Operation Sealion, many of the barges the Germans were planning to use had a lower speed than the tide running in the Channel. So the invasion fleet would have spent half a day being pushed around by the tide. With a freeboard measured in inches.....
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,364
    Thank you for the thoughtful comments in the article.

    I think, as often, the current government policy has to be discerned through the fog.

    In the long run its weapons are vaccination, herd immunity (or perhaps 'community resilience'), treatments and getting used to a new disease.

    As long as deaths are not gigantic the only thing the government has to avert at all costs is NHS breakdown by being overwhelmed.

    The current general policy is therefore: continue vaccination, allow the population by this and natural transmission to stabilise with relation to Covid, give legal space for UK/England life to get back to as near normal as the population will tolerate, allow outriders to declare future victory in a deniable manner in the hope that summer and autumn events will allow a winter which, while grim, will be less grim.

    Remaining policies are crossed fingers, luck, ensure that anti vaxxers are marginalised politically, and hope that Labour develops no better ideas.

    Dangerous but interesting times.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720

    So pleased to see Primož Roglič winning gold in the ITT. That solidifies the European Union lead in the medal tallies.

    Ah but the English-Speaking Peoples (© Winston Churchill) have 23 Golds to the EU's 16. Adding together the Commonwealth is left as an exercise for the reader.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,934

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour MP Rosie Duffield is investigated by her party for liking tweet that said trans people were 'mostly heterosexuals cosplaying'

    Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield, 50, is facing a backlash from activists
    LGBT+ Labour pressured Sir Keir Starmer to remove the whip from Ms Duffield"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9832829/Labour-MP-Rosie-Duffield-investigated-party-liking-tweet.html

    The tweet which Rosie liked doesn’t actually mention trans people directly.

    I’m so sick of hearing about how “queer” has been reclaimed. I had that word spit in my face as recently as 2018. And look at WHO is reclaiming it? Mostly heterosexuals cosplaying as the opposite sex and as “gay”.

    It’s possible to read “heterosexuals cosplaying as the opposite sex” as a slur on trans people I suppose, but it’s also possible to read it otherwise.
    Hasn't that, or something like it, been an issue in several places? 'Transgender men' being allowed into women only spaces and so on, and then abusing?
    I have to believe that those instances are vanishingly small and should not be used to derail any sensible debate about trans issues.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,979
    MattW said:

    Talking of newspapers, does anyone know how to read die Zeit.

    There's a glorious faceplant of an article by Bettina Schulz (who I thought reputable) starting thusly:

    The pandemic as an excuse for empty supermarket shelves

    Great Britain is in crisis, the new wave of infections is affecting countless industries. The government does not want to admit that many problems are due to Brexit.

    An analysis by Bettina Schulz , London

    For a long time the British supermarkets were able to hide their misery. For months, pasta, canned soups, avocados or honey were pushed onto the shelves so skilfully that it wasn't even noticeable how meager the selection really was. It is no longer possible, because now the employees are also missing. So there is no one who has time to sort the meager range of goods into Potemkin villages in a land of milk and honey.
    ...

    https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-07/grossbritannien-corona-krise-lieferengpaesse-supermaerkte-brexit-delta-personalmangel-pingedemic

    Looks like they've picked up the baton reluctantly relinquished by the NYT after they wrote about Britons spending their summers "down at the creek"......
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,488

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
    The ones that I think have a big future are the completely submerged ones - look like mini wind turbines on the bottom of the sea. The advantage of being completely submerged is being out of the wave action. I would wonder what will happen to this thing in a bad storm.

    When I worked in the oil industry, there was a procession of tidal generation projects. Generally the wave action would pound them to bits over time....
    The plan to install one off the south coast of the island here is moving ahead again, after the previous consortium collapsed. The NIMBY campaign opposing the project is also up and running.
    What are the nimbies complaining about? The thing will be uinderwater, the odd warning triangle on a pole on the beach aside.

    It';s not as if Elon Musk wants to reopen the rocket testing site at Scratchells Cliff, is it?
    I wonder what the ISP of NIMBY/LOX rocket propellant combination is..... Mind you, that would be a hybrid solid and probably a bad idea....
    The Saro rockets tested there were actually hydrogen peroxide - but full strength.

    Won't comment on the appropriateness of nimbies as rocket fuel, but on the hybrid issue I did find this home made hybrid rocket when checking my memory re the rocket fuel. Not to be tried at home ...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHzsZkh3iWg
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,488
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    That's weird looking, but also kind-of beautiful. It looks more like an aeroplane than a power generator (although that's probably because both have to operate in flows).
    Another thousand of them, and you'd have some serious capacity.
    I do wonder what the downsides for this is - chopped-up fishes and acoustic noise pollution confusing whales and dolphins on porpoise?
    You'd need to dive into the specifications to be sure.
    That's right, to put the seal on the conclusion.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,182

    My late Father in law as far back as the 60's maintained that harnessing the tides in the Pentland Firth would be the energy source of the future

    He used to recount that on many times when returning to his home port of Lossiemouth from fishing in the west of Scotland he would experience times when his fishing boat would actually be going astern even with full engines due to the strength of the tides
    My granddad had a similar story. He was on an old merchantman in a convoy going through the English Channel during the war. There was a storm, and after a day they were further back than they had been before, and they were alone as the convoy had steamed well ahead. I don't know much more about the story, but as he was a gunner in DEMS it must have meant a long shift at the guns - unless the weather was so bad German planes couldn't fly and the submarines couldn't easily attack.

    I wish I'd talked more about it with him whilst he was alive.
    For Operation Sealion, many of the barges the Germans were planning to use had a lower speed than the tide running in the Channel. So the invasion fleet would have spent half a day being pushed around by the tide. With a freeboard measured in inches.....
    Yes, it wasn't the best-planned operation...

    Talking about low freeboard, have you ever seen videos of narrowboats crossing the Wash?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdYmqKjdEns
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,283
    MattW said:

    Talking of newspapers, does anyone know how to read die Zeit.

    There's a glorious faceplant of an article by Bettina Schulz (who I thought reputable) starting thusly:

    The pandemic as an excuse for empty supermarket shelves

    Great Britain is in crisis, the new wave of infections is affecting countless industries. The government does not want to admit that many problems are due to Brexit.

    An analysis by Bettina Schulz , London

    For a long time the British supermarkets were able to hide their misery. For months, pasta, canned soups, avocados or honey were pushed onto the shelves so skilfully that it wasn't even noticeable how meager the selection really was. It is no longer possible, because now the employees are also missing. So there is no one who has time to sort the meager range of goods into Potemkin villages in a land of milk and honey.
    ...

    https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-07/grossbritannien-corona-krise-lieferengpaesse-supermaerkte-brexit-delta-personalmangel-pingedemic

    She’s right. Empty shelves are caused by Brexit.

    If it was caused by Covid we would be having the same problem in the European Union. We aren’t.
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