And once again, in Georgia the Republican Senate candidate (50.1%) is outperforming the President (49.65%), a pattern which we have seen elsewhere. It's very unusual.
This calls a lie to the nonsense (HYUFD) that Donald Trump would be the GOP candidate in 2024. He's a liability and the knives are sharpening in the Republican party.
Here's a comment by Sarah Frostenson on 538 a couple of hours ago: "Meanwhile, Georgia, which has turned out to be a really competitive race (less than a percentage point separates Trump and Biden), is still at 95 percent of the expected vote reporting, but almost all of Georgia’s counties where the vote is outstanding are blue counties, like Fulton (Atlanta). However, according to a Georgia elections official, as of 8:30 p.m. ET, Biden needs to win 64 percent of the outstanding vote to overtake Trump. That might prove a tall order, but this is definitely the closest toss-up state we’ve seen in this presidential race — compared to, say, Ohio and Iowa."
Also an earlier comment from Nate Silver in which he was far less positive about Biden's chances in Arizona than last night. Previously he thought it was "likely Biden" but shouldn't have been called. Now he just says it would be Biden if he was forced to choose, but he thinls the calls should be retracted.
Also on 538 Geoffrey Skelley a couple of hours ago trying to evaluate the balance of outstanding mail ballots in Pennsylvania. At that time he said about 763,000 were to come. Some from Republican areas. But a quarter from the Philadelphia area, including 120,000 from Philadelphia proper. Also 85,000 from Democratic-leaning Allegheny and Lehigh counties.
This all seems a bit more up in the air than I thought it would when I went to bed last night.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
Potential nightmare for an incoming President Biden, if the Republicans hold the Senate and can block his appointments.
The Senate race is not quite over. It looks like the two January Georgia run offs (Perdue likely to drop below 50%) may decide it. I'm assuming Tillis holds off Cunningham in NC.
And once again, in Georgia the Republican Senate candidate (50.1%) is outperforming the President (49.65%), a pattern which we have seen elsewhere. It's very unusual.
This calls a lie to the nonsense (HYUFD) that Donald Trump would be the GOP candidate in 2024. He's a liability and the knives are sharpening in the Republican party.
I think you can make a good case that even where he's underperforming his party, he's driven turnout for the party that a duller candidate wouldn't have managed.
That said, letting him lose angrily seems pretty great for the GOP: - GOP base think they woz robbed, fired up for mid-terms - Biden can't really get anything done, Dem base will be miffed - Good chance of holding Senate, regaining House, holding/gaining statehouses - 2024 to be either a decrepid Biden, loony left or a Californian centre-left VP who isn't very good
And once again, in Georgia the Republican Senate candidate (50.1%) is outperforming the President (49.65%), a pattern which we have seen elsewhere. It's very unusual.
This calls a lie to the nonsense (HYUFD) that Donald Trump would be the GOP candidate in 2024. He's a liability and the knives are sharpening in the Republican party.
I think you can make a good case that even where he's underperforming his party, he's driven turnout for the party that a duller candidate wouldn't have managed.
That said, letting him lose angrily seems pretty great for the GOP: - Base think they woz robbed, fired up for mid-terms - Biden can't really do anything, base will be miffed - Good chance of holding Senate, regaining House, holding/gaining statehouses - 2024 to be either a decrepid Biden, loony left or a Californian centre-left VP who isn't very good
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
So, if Biden just pulls off GA from the remaining, it's 269:269
I've got £25 at 26/1 with Betfair Sports on that outcome. £25 was the maximum bet allowed.
For the good of humanity, I hope you lose the bet.
I'd prefer my prediction to be right.
The only way for Trump to win is to have an amazing series of results in nearly all the remaining states. The only time that sort of thing happened before was in 2016. 😊
Biden needs to lead by about 55-45 in the remaining votes.
If (per 538) they come from predominantly Republican areas, that wouldn't be expected for overall voting, but a 10-point lead in postal votes doesn't seem out of the question even in mainly Republican areas.
It depends on how strongly Democrats in Georgia preferred postal voting. I can't see any figures. Does anyone know?
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
Biden needs to lead by about 55-45 in the remaining votes.
If (per 538) they come from predominantly Republican areas, that wouldn't be expected for overall voting, but a 10-point lead in postal votes doesn't seem out of the question even in mainly Republican areas.
It depends on how strongly Democrats in Georgia preferred postal voting. I can't see any figures. Does anyone know?
Yeah it's breaking 4 to 1 at the moment for Biden (roughly).
A lot of Atlanta votes still to come esp Fulton County.
Trump supporters are un-ironically calling for every vote to be counted in Nevada and Arizona while demanding that vote counting should stop elsewhere.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
Farage would, no doubt about it. Boris would too if he thought it would save him. The key thing is they can’t, it’s too quick. You get a final result before the courts open or the mob wakes up. Politically it’s too late.
Trump supporters are un-ironically calling for every vote to be counted in Nevada and Arizona while demanding that vote counting should stop elsewhere.
And once again, in Georgia the Republican Senate candidate (50.1%) is outperforming the President (49.65%), a pattern which we have seen elsewhere. It's very unusual.
This calls a lie to the nonsense (HYUFD) that Donald Trump would be the GOP candidate in 2024. He's a liability and the knives are sharpening in the Republican party.
I think you can make a good case that even where he's underperforming his party, he's driven turnout for the party that a duller candidate wouldn't have managed.
That said, letting him lose angrily seems pretty great for the GOP: - Base think they woz robbed, fired up for mid-terms - Biden can't really do anything, base will be miffed - Good chance of holding Senate, regaining House, holding/gaining statehouses - 2024 to be either a decrepid Biden, loony left or a Californian centre-left VP who isn't very good
A lot of wishful thinking in there
I don't wish for any of that to be right (except to the extent that it incentivizes right-wing judges to cut Trump off) but that's how I'd see it.
Slightly different picture if the Dems win the GA runoff, but I expect the GOP will be more motivated.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
Where Britain does need to sharpen up its act on intimidation is inside polling stations -- no groups; no cameras.
Trump supporters are un-ironically calling for every vote to be counted in Nevada and Arizona while demanding that vote counting should stop elsewhere.
Another reason why it’s preferable to have all the votes counted within a few hours, it much reduces the window of opportunity for people to cry foul on some technicality - and for a bunch of partisan idiots to look like partisan idiots.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
I would expect attempts here to be much less overt and much more in advance of a vote because of the speed we get a result once the election happens. It would be much more focused on voter suppression and nobbling the Electoral Commission and any role for the courts. Each move on its own might be relatively inconsequential and defensible. Combined, they’d add up. Then let FPTP do the rest.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
Farage would, no doubt about it. Boris would too if he thought it would save him. The key thing is they can’t, it’s too quick. You get a final result before the courts open or the mob wakes up. Politically it’s too late.
Maybe Boris if he could do it without anyone finding out.
I do hope it goes to a runoff and Perdue loses. Not just because Perdue is a vile human being who is unfit to be a parish councillor, but because Osoff duffing up McConnell in the Senate would be hilarious.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
I can certainly imagine a British Prime Minister breaking the spending rules to stop Farage winning a seat, because that is what happened.
So if my reckoning is correct, at the end of today (ish) the Senate race will be 50-48. That's with Dan Sullivan winning in Alaska which looks likely (50% counted and he's 2:1 ahead) and Tillis holding off Cunningham which is probable but not certain (93% votes counted and a 1.8% lead).
That will leave the two Georgia Senate races in January to decide the Senate.
Leaving the Daily Mail's breathless rush to diss President Biden's hopes more a case of party politicking. They're clearly miffed that their boy Boris is about to be sent to Coventry.
If (per 538) they come from predominantly Republican areas,
I don't think Nate has had his best 24 hours to be honest
It was definitely odd to tell people they wouldn't know anything until the polls closed and then to post those tweets about Florida turnout figures looking good for Biden.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
It appears that steps were taken to prevent the mail-in ballots from being counted beforehand, which is exacerbating the problem.
I do hope it goes to a runoff and Perdue loses. Not just because Perdue is a vile human being who is unfit to be a parish councillor, but because Osoff duffing up McConnell in the Senate would be hilarious.
That might be worth a fiver on the incumbent, I fear there’s still some way to go until we get a final result.
I’m on Biden since before the results @1.5 for a fair chunk.
Holding firm.
It was a piss poor bet though. One of the worst value (winning?) bets in the history of political betting.
No, 1.5 was good value based on the polls and models giving Biden a 90 per cent or greater chance.
It was still a bad bet because it was foreseeable that the price would drift to create an even better value bet, but not bad value in itself. (Yeah, me too.)
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
I can certainly imagine a British Prime Minister breaking the spending rules to stop Farage winning a seat, because that is what happened.
I was talking about trying to interfere with the counting of votes really. I know politicians of all parties will do whatever they can get away with on spending rules.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
British democracy is seriously flawed, but I would take it over US democracy.
Indeed.
Imo France has the fairest/best electoral system for choosing the head of state.
Yes, the 2 stage election, weeks apart, is a fine system that minimises the need for tactical voting, and is even better than AV. The final two are clear, and the second stage allows a pause for thought. Do you really want Le Pen?
Trump supporters are un-ironically calling for every vote to be counted in Nevada and Arizona while demanding that vote counting should stop elsewhere.
Another reason why it’s preferable to have all the votes counted within a few hours, it much reduces the window of opportunity for people to cry foul on some technicality - and for a bunch of partisan idiots to look like partisan idiots.
Analogous to the bizarre decades-on-death-row thing. Just get on with it, in both cases.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
British democracy is seriously flawed, but I would take it over US democracy.
Indeed.
Imo France has the fairest/best electoral system for choosing the head of state.
Yes, the 2 stage election, weeks apart, is a fine system that minimises the need for tactical voting, and is even better than AV. The final two are clear, and the second stage allows a pause for thought. Do you really want Le Pen?
Eventually, the answer will be yes. Of course, one could argue that by the point that happens Le Pen won't be considered much of an extremist.
That said, they really weren't all that far off Le Pen v Melenchon in 2017, which would have been hilarious.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
British democracy is seriously flawed, but I would take it over US democracy.
Indeed.
Imo France has the fairest/best electoral system for choosing the head of state.
Alongside a really accurate exit poll, that allows for great value betting as the votes are counted.
Hmm. No so sure tbh
Strictly from a political betting standpoint, the more complicated/ridiculous the electoral system, the greater the advantage to us psephopunting geeks.
We’re able to spot the value while the mug punters and partisans get misled.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
I think that’s right. If Biden wins we’ll obviously see a very different kind of presidency and Republicans will not be thanked if they fail to recognise that and carry on in full Trump mode.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. I think America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and I think the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. I think we're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Biden is not Trump but the GOP is, and has been for some time, hardline and hyperpartisan. It was Mitch McConnell in the Senate, and not President Trump who blocked Obama administration appointments and stacked the courts. It was the GOP that repeatedly shut down government under Clinton and Obama. If the putative President Biden thinks he will earn any concessions by appointing Republicans to his administration, he is a braver man than I.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
Farage conceded a vote he won didnt he?
Not technically conceded more sayiing he felt leave had just fallen short (well its Farage and he needs to be on the telly with something to say of course!) Farage though is more willing to make calls (even wrong ones) partly becasue of his personality but mainly because he has no baggage of a real party machine or boss behind him controlling him
I think the counting of votes in the U.K. would be A LOT slower if there was the same level of legal scrutiny as there is in the US. Basically the U.K. proceeds on the basis that everything is above board, and there is no potential partisanship in the electoral process (so that even if errors are made they are “equal opportunity” and could just as easily favour either side).
It would all have to change if one or other party actually started making serious attempts at corrupting the voting process. And I doubt the system could cope that well with it. It seems to me that the US system is far more advanced and transparent in order to combat potential fraud. But that is because it needs to me.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
Farage conceded a vote he won didnt he?
Farage said that Remain had won the Brexit referendum. (Cynics later accused him of deliberately misleading the markets but that seems far-fetched.)
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
Farage would, no doubt about it. Boris would too if he thought it would save him. The key thing is they can’t, it’s too quick. You get a final result before the courts open or the mob wakes up. Politically it’s too late.
Maybe Boris if he could do it without anyone finding out.
If you add "without anyone finding out", then that would change the terms of reference to include a vast number of politicians.
If you could shag the person of your dreams "without anyone finding out", would you do it?
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
Farage conceded a vote he won didnt he?
Farage said that Remain had won the Brexit referendum. (Cynics later accused him of deliberately misleading the markets but that seems far-fetched.)
I do hope it goes to a runoff and Perdue loses. Not just because Perdue is a vile human being who is unfit to be a parish councillor, but because Osoff duffing up McConnell in the Senate would be hilarious.
The run off elections are bound to be easy for GOP aren’t they? With the anti-Trump factor out of the way?
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
We can’t call this election, let alone the next one. Incumbency counts for a lot let see how it goes. In terms of the old GOP, I am sure Donald has many enemies within the GOP who would welcome the opportunity to escape his control.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
Farage would, no doubt about it. Boris would too if he thought it would save him. The key thing is they can’t, it’s too quick. You get a final result before the courts open or the mob wakes up. Politically it’s too late.
Maybe Boris if he could do it without anyone finding out.
If you add "without anyone finding out", then that would change the terms of reference to include a vast number of politicians.
If you could shag the person of your dreams "without anyone finding out", would you do it?
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
The Republican Party is three different parties, though, held together by a fear of the Democratic agenda. There are religious Conservatives whose biggest concern is abortion. There's the protectionist / isolationists, and there are the people who want a low regulation, low tax economy.
If Tom Cotton takes the lead in 2024 (and he may well do), then it's the protectionist / isolationist wing that take the Presidency (I'm pencilling 2024 as a Republican gain). If it's Marco Rubio, Ducey or Walker, then it's the low regulation guys (who are pretty free trade led). And if it's a Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee figure (although probably not one of those guys), then it's the Religious Conservatives.
I don't think it's clear which faction has the lead yet.
And if the Supreme Court defangs Roe vs Wade, then can the Religious Conservatives hold together? If abortion were to become a state issue, it might fundamentally change American politics.
Then there's Obamacare. The low regulation / low tax guys hate it. But most of the protectionist / isolationists like it, if not the name.
In other words, we don't know what the Republican Party will choose to be. Because those three factions are only really united by a common enemy. (Not that the Dems are any better.)
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
I think the counting of votes in the U.K. would be A LOT slower if there was the same level of legal scrutiny as there is in the US. Basically the U.K. proceeds on the basis that everything is above board, and there is no potential partisanship in the electoral process (so that even if errors are made they are “equal opportunity” and could just as easily favour either side).
It would all have to change if one or other party actually started making serious attempts at corrupting the voting process. And I doubt the system could cope that well with it. It seems to me that the US system is far more advanced and transparent in order to combat potential fraud. But that is because it needs to me.
The U.K. system is designed to be above board, that’s the difference. There’s national regulations and a national oversight body, the mechanics of the election are run by career civil servants rather than elected officials, and results are delivered swiftly with parties observing.
In the USA, you have every state governor and city mayor micromanaging the actual election process, arguing about opening hours and placement of polling stations, rules on absentee and postal ballots, and voter identification - often on a nakedly partisan basis to reduce the turnout of their opponents’ voters.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Farage is good at innovative media despite (His recent Dover patrols etc) being seen as a fuddy duddy in other ways
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
We can’t call this election, let alone the next one. Incumbency counts for a lot let see how it goes. In terms of the old GOP, I am sure Donald has many enemies within the GOP who would welcome the opportunity to escape his control.
Im sure they would, but likewise if they could maintain his platform they dont have that many people to convert to win a majority. Returning Rep female voters alone could tip them over in to the White House There's all to play for and frankly none of the US pundits appears to understand whats happening as they let their partisan views get in the way of analysis,
I do hope it goes to a runoff and Perdue loses. Not just because Perdue is a vile human being who is unfit to be a parish councillor, but because Osoff duffing up McConnell in the Senate would be hilarious.
The run off elections are bound to be easy for GOP aren’t they? With the anti-Trump factor out of the way?
I think they will be easier if Biden wins the Presidency. The Americans do love having split tickets. The voters of Georgia are not exactly radicals, and they won’t want Biden to have untrammelled power in case he does something weird with it. A Rep Senate to balance a Dem House and Presidency would probably appeal to a large chunk of voters.
But Perdue still seems to me to be exactly the sort of scumbag who shouldn’t be in politics. So I hope whatever happens, he loses.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
The Republican Party is three different parties, though, held together by a fear of the Democratic agenda. There are religious Conservatives whose biggest concern is abortion. There's the protectionist / isolationists, and there are the people who want a low regulation, low tax economy.
If Tom Cotton takes the lead in 2024 (and he may well do), then it's the protectionist / isolationist wing that take the Presidency (I'm pencilling 2024 as a Republican gain). If it's Marco Rubio, Ducey or Walker, then it's the low regulation guys (who are pretty free trade led). And if it's a Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee figure (although probably not one of those guys), then it's the Religious Conservatives.
I don't think it's clear which faction has the lead yet.
And if the Supreme Court defangs Roe vs Wade, then can the Religious Conservatives hold together? If abortion were to become a state issue, it might fundamentally change American politics.
Then there's Obamacare. The low regulation / low tax guys hate it. But most of the protectionist / isolationists like it, if not the name.
In other words, we don't know what the Republican Party will choose to be. Because those three factions are only really united by a common enemy. (Not that the Dems are any better.)
Fortuitously or not, I think the US got the best possible result on Tuesday. Trump is gone, but the Republicans held the Senate and made gains in the House, so the left wing of the Democratic Party will be kept in check.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
We can’t call this election, let alone the next one. Incumbency counts for a lot let see how it goes. In terms of the old GOP, I am sure Donald has many enemies within the GOP who would welcome the opportunity to escape his control.
Im sure they would, but likewise if they could maintain his platform they dont have that many people to convert to win a majority. Returning Rep female voters alone could tip them over in to the White House There's all to play for and frankly none of the US pundits appears to understand whats happening as they let their partisan views get in the way of analysis,
I am sure there were those in the UK that saw the 2010 coalition as a weak, temporary anomaly and that Labour stood a strong chance of coming back. No one predicted what unfolded next. Let’s see how it goes.
I think the counting of votes in the U.K. would be A LOT slower if there was the same level of legal scrutiny as there is in the US. Basically the U.K. proceeds on the basis that everything is above board, and there is no potential partisanship in the electoral process (so that even if errors are made they are “equal opportunity” and could just as easily favour either side).
It would all have to change if one or other party actually started making serious attempts at corrupting the voting process. And I doubt the system could cope that well with it. It seems to me that the US system is far more advanced and transparent in order to combat potential fraud. But that is because it needs to me.
The U.K. system is designed to be above board, that’s the difference. There’s national regulations and a national oversight body, the mechanics of the election are run by career civil servants rather than elected officials, and results are delivered swiftly with parties observing.
In the USA, you have every state governor and city mayor micromanaging the actual election process, arguing about opening hours and placement of polling stations, rules on absentee and postal ballots, and voter identification - often on a nakedly partisan basis to reduce the turnout of their opponents’ voters.
Yes I know. But that’s my point. We trade off on the risk of “errors” in the counting process by satisfying ourselves that any errors are “honest mistakes” by neutral/impartial administrators trying their best and which could benefit either side.
Now if there started being suspicions that the “career civil servants” started being replaced by people with questionable claims to neutrality... Seen much evidence of that in the U.K. recently?
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
The Republican Party is three different parties, though, held together by a fear of the Democratic agenda. There are religious Conservatives whose biggest concern is abortion. There's the protectionist / isolationists, and there are the people who want a low regulation, low tax economy.
If Tom Cotton takes the lead in 2024 (and he may well do), then it's the protectionist / isolationist wing that take the Presidency (I'm pencilling 2024 as a Republican gain). If it's Marco Rubio, Ducey or Walker, then it's the low regulation guys (who are pretty free trade led). And if it's a Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee figure (although probably not one of those guys), then it's the Religious Conservatives.
I don't think it's clear which faction has the lead yet.
And if the Supreme Court defangs Roe vs Wade, then can the Religious Conservatives hold together? If abortion were to become a state issue, it might fundamentally change American politics.
Then there's Obamacare. The low regulation / low tax guys hate it. But most of the protectionist / isolationists like it, if not the name.
In other words, we don't know what the Republican Party will choose to be. Because those three factions are only really united by a common enemy. (Not that the Dems are any better.)
And is it any different with the Dems ? They are just as factional and united only by hating the Reps.
Biden is about to become president and frankly his only platform was he isnt Trump. I havent the faintest idea what policies he has ( probably none ) except he's not Donald.
It is really incredible how little movement there was on the decision desk results page yesterday. Over about 24 hours the US have managed to count 3 or 4m votes. Absolutely pathetic. 2 states were called, not because the counting was completely over of course, but because the result was pretty certain. It's really pathetic.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
Zzzzzzzzzzzz.
Get over yourself man.
LOL
this time yesterday you were shitting yourself at the result, unable to comprehend why the Dems massively underdelivered.
I think the counting of votes in the U.K. would be A LOT slower if there was the same level of legal scrutiny as there is in the US. Basically the U.K. proceeds on the basis that everything is above board, and there is no potential partisanship in the electoral process (so that even if errors are made they are “equal opportunity” and could just as easily favour either side).
It would all have to change if one or other party actually started making serious attempts at corrupting the voting process. And I doubt the system could cope that well with it. It seems to me that the US system is far more advanced and transparent in order to combat potential fraud. But that is because it needs to me.
The U.K. system is designed to be above board, that’s the difference. There’s national regulations and a national oversight body, the mechanics of the election are run by career civil servants rather than elected officials, and results are delivered swiftly with parties observing.
In the USA, you have every state governor and city mayor micromanaging the actual election process, arguing about opening hours and placement of polling stations, rules on absentee and postal ballots, and voter identification - often on a nakedly partisan basis to reduce the turnout of their opponents’ voters.
There seem to me to be equal problems in the USA Electoral Area process.
And it seems to be everywhere, especially the Senate. Here there are various legal duties, and a practise of reflecting other political boundaries - eg my MP's Constituency is close to being the same as the local Council District.
It is really incredible how little movement there was on the decision desk results page yesterday. Over about 24 hours the US have managed to count 3 or 4m votes. Absolutely pathetic. 2 states were called, not because the counting was completely over of course, but because the result was pretty certain. It's really pathetic.
Yes, I agree. And I wasted an entire day on it. The last day before lockdown too.
The GOP primaries in 2024 could be a circus that could easily see an extreme, unelectable candidate emerge. The trick for the GOP is that Trump had something special that will be hard to reproduce.
Comments
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324222303576723456?s=20
He's on track to win Georgia.
Latest report 4,500 - 1,300
This calls a lie to the nonsense (HYUFD) that Donald Trump would be the GOP candidate in 2024. He's a liability and the knives are sharpening in the Republican party.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1324063213080793090
"Meanwhile, Georgia, which has turned out to be a really competitive race (less than a percentage point separates Trump and Biden), is still at 95 percent of the expected vote reporting, but almost all of Georgia’s counties where the vote is outstanding are blue counties, like Fulton (Atlanta). However, according to a Georgia elections official, as of 8:30 p.m. ET, Biden needs to win 64 percent of the outstanding vote to overtake Trump. That might prove a tall order, but this is definitely the closest toss-up state we’ve seen in this presidential race — compared to, say, Ohio and Iowa."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8913935/Democrats-face-tough-questions-predictions-come-short-House-Senate-races.html
Potential nightmare for an incoming President Biden, if the Republicans hold the Senate and can block his appointments.
This all seems a bit more up in the air than I thought it would when I went to bed last night.
And that report was from Maricopa. Biden has to hope it wasn't typical of Maricopa - ie it was more rural and less Phoenix.
But it was a bit puzzling as it wasn't Election day vote and the remaining vote isn't Election day either.
Last batch again approx 3:1
Biden 1.17
Trump 6.8
Recent reports have been pretty consistently about 3:1- but caution needed as some will come from less Biden friendly counties.
(14,000 still to process - possibility some more have been processed but result not yet on website)
That said, letting him lose angrily seems pretty great for the GOP:
- GOP base think they woz robbed, fired up for mid-terms
- Biden can't really get anything done, Dem base will be miffed
- Good chance of holding Senate, regaining House, holding/gaining statehouses
- 2024 to be either a decrepid Biden, loony left or a Californian centre-left VP who isn't very good
The only way for Trump to win is to have an amazing series of results in nearly all the remaining states. The only time that sort of thing happened before was in 2016. 😊
I'm looking at Fox website which is ahead of CNN. Decision Desk is between the two!
If (per 538) they come from predominantly Republican areas, that wouldn't be expected for overall voting, but a 10-point lead in postal votes doesn't seem out of the question even in mainly Republican areas.
It depends on how strongly Democrats in Georgia preferred postal voting. I can't see any figures. Does anyone know?
Trump - 2,430,156
Biden - 2,407,589
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324235174641651712?s=20
A lot of Atlanta votes still to come esp Fulton County.
Biden will win Georgia
Slightly different picture if the Dems win the GA runoff, but I expect the GOP will be more motivated.
Holding firm.
It was a piss poor bet though. One of the worst value (winning?) bets in the history of political betting.
Imo France has the fairest/best electoral system for choosing the head of state.
That will leave the two Georgia Senate races in January to decide the Senate.
Leaving the Daily Mail's breathless rush to diss President Biden's hopes more a case of party politicking. They're clearly miffed that their boy Boris is about to be sent to Coventry.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/04/politics/why-mail-in-ballots-were-counted-late-in-states-like-pennsylvania-and-michigan/index.html
His viral take-down of Perdue was glorious.
It was still a bad bet because it was foreseeable that the price would drift to create an even better value bet, but not bad value in itself. (Yeah, me too.)
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
That said, they really weren't all that far off Le Pen v Melenchon in 2017, which would have been hilarious.
Strictly from a political betting standpoint, the more complicated/ridiculous the electoral system, the greater the advantage to us psephopunting geeks.
We’re able to spot the value while the mug punters and partisans get misled.
Gap now down to 153,000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Puerto_Rico
It would all have to change if one or other party actually started making serious attempts at corrupting the voting process. And I doubt the system could cope that well with it. It seems to me that the US system is far more advanced and transparent in order to combat potential fraud. But that is because it needs to me.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5883293/Farage-denies-misleading-UK-conceding-Brexit-defeat-help-hedge-funds-make-money.html
If you could shag the person of your dreams "without anyone finding out", would you do it?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54818615
The meat goes into things like .. er .. Animal Feed.
The top 4 countries are Denmark, China, the Netherlands, and Poland.
So much for "The EU is the only way to be sure we have high farming standards."
If Tom Cotton takes the lead in 2024 (and he may well do), then it's the protectionist / isolationist wing that take the Presidency (I'm pencilling 2024 as a Republican gain). If it's Marco Rubio, Ducey or Walker, then it's the low regulation guys (who are pretty free trade led). And if it's a Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee figure (although probably not one of those guys), then it's the Religious Conservatives.
I don't think it's clear which faction has the lead yet.
And if the Supreme Court defangs Roe vs Wade, then can the Religious Conservatives hold together? If abortion were to become a state issue, it might fundamentally change American politics.
Then there's Obamacare. The low regulation / low tax guys hate it. But most of the protectionist / isolationists like it, if not the name.
In other words, we don't know what the Republican Party will choose to be. Because those three factions are only really united by a common enemy. (Not that the Dems are any better.)
https://twitter.com/SacnessEverdeen/status/1318759058862735361
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
In the USA, you have every state governor and city mayor micromanaging the actual election process, arguing about opening hours and placement of polling stations, rules on absentee and postal ballots, and voter identification - often on a nakedly partisan basis to reduce the turnout of their opponents’ voters.
But Perdue still seems to me to be exactly the sort of scumbag who shouldn’t be in politics. So I hope whatever happens, he loses.
Then, when the Primaries happen for the midterms we see how much further QAnon, or the next evolution of extremism, has spread.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=KkjxSKrcbOg
Now if there started being suspicions that the “career civil servants” started being replaced by people with questionable claims to neutrality... Seen much evidence of that in the U.K. recently?
Get over yourself man.
Biden is about to become president and frankly his only platform was he isnt Trump. I havent the faintest idea what policies he has ( probably none ) except he's not Donald.
What about this story implies a lack of high farming standards?
this time yesterday you were shitting yourself at the result, unable to comprehend why the Dems massively underdelivered.
Against Trump.
Yes that one.
And it seems to be everywhere, especially the Senate. Here there are various legal duties, and a practise of reflecting other political boundaries - eg my MP's Constituency is close to being the same as the local Council District.