All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
Back of fag packet on Arizona: Trump needs 57.5/42.5% split to take Arizona.
That's not quite true. (Or at least it's misleading.) Postal ballots recieved Weds (but posted before the election) count, and they're overwhelmingly for Biden.
? I never said they weren`t. I have no idea how these last batches of votes will skew. I was just giving the maths.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
He's right though. Tories *are* desperate for Trump to win.
7-day incidence increased to 125.8 per 100,000. COVID19 patients in intensive care: 2546 (up from 948 from 2 weeks earlier) Estimated 7-day R value: down to 0.92
Tests done (in calendar week 44): 1,567,083 Proportion positive: 7.26% (7 weeks earlier this was below 1%)
Apparently there are currently 7000 intensive care beds free. Now more could be made available, eg by using recovery rooms, but the problem is going to be finding the staff to cover the extra places - especially when we get outbreaks among staff.
There have been a few Belgium patients taken to hospitals here in NRW, but I think the spare capacity will be used up before long.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
Not without a law change extending the length of this Parliament. Next election currently set as May 2024.
Repealing the FTPA was in the Conservative manifesto.
Not guaranteed to happen by all means. The government is current rather busy after all, but there is plenty of time and a large, largely compliant, majority.
I know that but repealing the FTPA doesn't automatically ensure an extension to this Parliament it depends upon how the Act is written.
The Lords may try inserting an amendment for instance saying that it applies after this Parliament and that this next election must still be no later than May 2024.
Not saying it will happen but it requires the law changing still.
Some people still seem sceptical of Biden winning. There are 120,000 Postals in Philadelphia alone still to count and 763,311 state wide In Delaware County (Clinton 59%) the postals were 85% in Biden's favour Philadelphia voted Clinton 82%, the postals from Philly alone will send Biden over the top.
ALSO
Twelve red counties still haven't counted any postals. We know from Trump counties that haven't been slow counting that Biden still wins the postal split at least 60/40 in those counties.
Pennsylvania is in the bag - there is no route for Trump.
If Biden is winning at least 60-40 in postal votes in Republican counties then it really is all over. He needs only a 21-point lead overall.
Also worth bearing in mind he needs only a 10-point lead in Georgia among uncounted votes.
Georgia doesn’t quite get him there though. Would bring him to 269, agonisingly close.
Is PA still counting? I want this thing killed off.
No updates for Pennsylvania for 4 hours according to NYT.
I didn't mean to imply Georgia would be enough by itself.
British democracy is seriously flawed, but I would take it over US democracy.
Indeed.
Imo France has the fairest/best electoral system for choosing the head of state.
Yes, the 2 stage election, weeks apart, is a fine system that minimises the need for tactical voting, and is even better than AV. The final two are clear, and the second stage allows a pause for thought. Do you really want Le Pen?
Eventually, the answer will be yes. Of course, one could argue that by the point that happens Le Pen won't be considered much of an extremist.
That said, they really weren't all that far off Le Pen v Melenchon in 2017, which would have been hilarious.
Which highlights the flaw in the run-off system. Let's say Le Pen and Melenchon were the least acceptable candidates for most voters - the run-off system could easily have meant that the second least acceptable candidate for most voters wins where there are several viable candidates in the first round. Preferential voting or approval voting avoids this and tends to find the candidate that most people find acceptable, even when not most people's first choice. Pros and cons to all systems, but I think finding the candidate that most find acceptable is better, than risking offering people a choice in the second round between 2 extremes that most people really find unacceptable.
Nevertheless credit the Americans for recognising that in a two-party context having at least 50% of the vote does convey legitimacy, and is a requirement in Senate contests. In that respect they are ahead of us, with UK MPs having been "elected" on anything from a quarter of the vote upwards
It is a requirement in Georgia - not sure about other states?
Some people still seem sceptical of Biden winning. There are 120,000 Postals in Philadelphia alone still to count and 763,311 state wide In Delaware County (Clinton 59%) the postals were 85% in Biden's favour Philadelphia voted Clinton 82%, the postals from Philly alone will send Biden over the top.
ALSO
Twelve red counties still haven't counted any postals. We know from Trump counties that haven't been slow counting that Biden still wins the postal split at least 60/40 in those counties.
Pennsylvania is in the bag - there is no route for Trump.
I may take £1100 to £200 with ladbrokes then and celebrate his victory with a few bottles of champagne. Help the eurozone economy at the same time.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
He's right though. Tories *are* desperate for Trump to win.
The smarter Tories were. They were able to hide their rapidly decomposing Brexit beneath his petticoat.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Could Trump resign now? Or if he died before Biden is declared President-Elect would Pence become 46? Or if either happened before Jan 20th? I guess someone must have thought of all these eventualities.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
Some commentators have noted that BoZo's relentless drive for the hardest possible Brexit at any cost has given them an opportunity to advocate for the hardest possible 'rejoin'
The more miserable Brexit becomes, the more compelling that argument
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She’s also a huge Republican asset, for the same reason Corbyn and friends were great Conservative assets at the last UK election.
Just for a change of subject (well revert really).
New record of daily Covid cases in US, 108k and deaths definitely on the up.
Projected deaths having fallen recently back up. 400k by 1/2.
Trump will still own this until late Jan and it is only going in one direction.
New daily death reported record (Worldometer figures) of just over 9000, nearly 4000 of which were in Europe, where the UK reported the highest number.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
He may be a Pelosi but he’s a good Governor and would be a good candidate for a bigger job
ATLANTA — The presidential race in Georgia appeared headed for a photo finish as former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. steadily gained ground on President Trump. The victor will be awarded 16 electoral votes.
Some people still seem sceptical of Biden winning. There are 120,000 Postals in Philadelphia alone still to count and 763,311 state wide In Delaware County (Clinton 59%) the postals were 85% in Biden's favour Philadelphia voted Clinton 82%, the postals from Philly alone will send Biden over the top.
ALSO
Twelve red counties still haven't counted any postals. We know from Trump counties that haven't been slow counting that Biden still wins the postal split at least 60/40 in those counties.
Pennsylvania is in the bag - there is no route for Trump.
If Biden is winning at least 60-40 in postal votes in Republican counties then it really is all over. He needs only a 21-point lead overall.
Also worth bearing in mind he needs only a 10-point lead in Georgia among uncounted votes.
Georgia doesn’t quite get him there though. Would bring him to 269, agonisingly close.
Is PA still counting? I want this thing killed off.
No updates for Pennsylvania for 4 hours according to NYT.
I didn't mean to imply Georgia would be enough by itself.
Ah, not taken that way - sorry I didn’t mean to suggest you did.
British democracy is seriously flawed, but I would take it over US democracy.
Indeed.
Imo France has the fairest/best electoral system for choosing the head of state.
Yes, the 2 stage election, weeks apart, is a fine system that minimises the need for tactical voting, and is even better than AV. The final two are clear, and the second stage allows a pause for thought. Do you really want Le Pen?
Eventually, the answer will be yes. Of course, one could argue that by the point that happens Le Pen won't be considered much of an extremist.
That said, they really weren't all that far off Le Pen v Melenchon in 2017, which would have been hilarious.
Which highlights the flaw in the run-off system. Let's say Le Pen and Melenchon were the least acceptable candidates for most voters - the run-off system could easily have meant that the second least acceptable candidate for most voters wins where there are several viable candidates in the first round. Preferential voting or approval voting avoids this and tends to find the candidate that most people find acceptable, even when not most people's first choice. Pros and cons to all systems, but I think finding the candidate that most find acceptable is better, than risking offering people a choice in the second round between 2 extremes that most people really find unacceptable.
Nevertheless credit the Americans for recognising that in a two-party context having at least 50% of the vote does convey legitimacy, and is a requirement in Senate contests. In that respect they are ahead of us, with UK MPs having been "elected" on anything from a quarter of the vote upwards
Is that a Georgia rule, or all states? I haven't heard of it elsewhere.
Louisiana also has runoff apparently, Maine has ranked-choice voting. Don't know about others
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
Farage would, no doubt about it. Boris would too if he thought it would save him. The key thing is they can’t, it’s too quick. You get a final result before the courts open or the mob wakes up. Politically it’s too late.
Maybe Boris if he could do it without anyone finding out.
If you add "without anyone finding out", then that would change the terms of reference to include a vast number of politicians.
If you could shag the person of your dreams "without anyone finding out", would you do it?
So if @Chris is right, PA will resume counting at 0800 EST. In which case, I’d think we would have a reasonable chance of a call at, say, 1400 EST / 1900 GMT ?
Could Trump resign now? Or if he died before Biden is declared President-Elect would Pence become 46? Or if either happened before Jan 20th? I guess someone must have thought of all these eventualities.
It could be Pence or it could be Kamala Harris if Trump stays but Biden withdraws before the January inauguration.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She’s also a huge Republican asset, for the same reason Corbyn and friends were great Conservative assets at the last UK election.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
Farage would, no doubt about it. Boris would too if he thought it would save him. The key thing is they can’t, it’s too quick. You get a final result before the courts open or the mob wakes up. Politically it’s too late.
Maybe Boris if he could do it without anyone finding out.
If you add "without anyone finding out", then that would change the terms of reference to include a vast number of politicians.
If you could shag the person of your dreams "without anyone finding out", would you do it?
Wouldn’t he/she know?
So it’s a logical impossibility
If he/she doesn't know it is you then that takes it to a very dark place.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
Zzzzzzzzzzzz.
Get over yourself man.
LOL
this time yesterday you were shitting yourself at the result, unable to comprehend why the Dems massively underdelivered.
Against Trump.
Yes that one.
The polls being wrong is not the same as Biden under-delivering.
What we do know is that many Tories inside and outside the government are rooting for a President who is currently seeking to prevent votes being counted and whose gun-toting supporters are engaged are intimidating election officials as they try to do their jobs. No amount of zzzzzzzing changes that.
The Reps are doing what Gore did in 2000, lawyers the lot. Neither party can claim to be guardians of virtue its simply the States has let its politics get out of control. Quite why you imagine anyone is cheerleading this is beyond me.
Gore did not try to stop votes being counted. His armed supporters did not surround centres where votes were being counted. What we are seeing right now has not happened before.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
Not without a law change extending the length of this Parliament. Next election currently set as May 2024.
Repealing the FTPA was in the Conservative manifesto.
Not guaranteed to happen by all means. The government is current rather busy after all, but there is plenty of time and a large, largely compliant, majority.
I know that but repealing the FTPA doesn't automatically ensure an extension to this Parliament it depends upon how the Act is written.
The Lords may try inserting an amendment for instance saying that it applies after this Parliament and that this next election must still be no later than May 2024.
Not saying it will happen but it requires the law changing still.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
His 2am Hail to the Thief press conference has pushed senior GOP stalwarts into condemnation. And Trump is tweeting increasingly wild things the more it becomes clear that he has lost. He is not going to accept the result of the election and that is why I think there will be a putch against him.
Wouldn't the GOP like to be rid of this loser and his circus of family members and sycophants? If they act quickly they can remove them from the table and not have to suffer the lunacy that will follow over the next 4 years where instead of attacking President Biden / Harris they get sidetracked into wild conspiracies about the past.
Invoke the 25th. Remove Trump from office. Install Pence. Get started on the Gilead 2024 narrative now where "former President" Pence sounds much better than "Trump's former Vice-President" Pence.
If both GA senate races go to a runoff the GOP pressure on Trump to STFU and stop tarnishing the party brand will intensify.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
Not without a law change extending the length of this Parliament. Next election currently set as May 2024.
Repealing the FTPA was in the Conservative manifesto.
Not guaranteed to happen by all means. The government is current rather busy after all, but there is plenty of time and a large, largely compliant, majority.
I know that but repealing the FTPA doesn't automatically ensure an extension to this Parliament it depends upon how the Act is written.
The Lords may try inserting an amendment for instance saying that it applies after this Parliament and that this next election must still be no later than May 2024.
Not saying it will happen but it requires the law changing still.
In practice though, May 24 would be the preferred date anyway. Stringing it out to Dec 2024 would only be done if the Tories were nailed on to lose.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
Ha, ha - coming from an apologist for an anti-democratic white supremacist I’ll take that as a compliment.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
IIUC the age restriction is about when you take office and she'd just squeak it.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
Edit: though if a realistic prospect, would get widespread support from LD members.
I think the counting of votes in the U.K. would be A LOT slower if there was the same level of legal scrutiny as there is in the US. Basically the U.K. proceeds on the basis that everything is above board, and there is no potential partisanship in the electoral process (so that even if errors are made they are “equal opportunity” and could just as easily favour either side).
It would all have to change if one or other party actually started making serious attempts at corrupting the voting process. And I doubt the system could cope that well with it. It seems to me that the US system is far more advanced and transparent in order to combat potential fraud. But that is because it needs to me.
The U.K. system is designed to be above board, that’s the difference. There’s national regulations and a national oversight body, the mechanics of the election are run by career civil servants rather than elected officials, and results are delivered swiftly with parties observing.
In the USA, you have every state governor and city mayor micromanaging the actual election process, arguing about opening hours and placement of polling stations, rules on absentee and postal ballots, and voter identification - often on a nakedly partisan basis to reduce the turnout of their opponents’ voters.
There seem to me to be equal problems in the USA Electoral Area process.
And it seems to be everywhere, especially the Senate. Here there are various legal duties, and a practise of reflecting other political boundaries - eg my MP's Constituency is close to being the same as the local Council District.
The US House seat boundary setting is so blantantly partisan they even have a word for it, named after Massachusetts governor Elmbridge Gerry, as far back as 1812 - there’s been more than a 200 year history of it! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering
A big difference in the UK is our party-neutral officials. For example, polling districts are decided by local councillors, and hence by politicians, but on a sensitive subject, officers' recommendations carry a lot of weight. I remember a long time ago a proposal to split a polling district so that some council blocks, where turnout was very low, would be made into a separate district with its own polling station in a room off the lobby of one of the blocks. There was some muttering from Conservative councillors, less than keen to increase turnout there, but none was bold enough to vote against it in public.
Now, I guess in some circumstances a proposal like that might get vetoed by a majority council and never see the like of day - but my judgement is that most councillors would be wary of exposing themselves to the risk of it later coming out that an officer recommendation on an electoral matter had been supressed like that. Technically, our officers would have the right to put the proposal to the committee regardless, although it would be a brave officer who did so in the face of a direction otherwise from a leading councillor.
The US administration is partisan partly because so many key appointments are either elected or political.
But this is in part because most UK politicians still believe in a conventional view of politics - that being "exposed" for trying to interfere with electoral processes will lead to retribution. But this is a very thin thread to hang your coat on. There is always the danger that the penny will drop (and there are increasing signs of this) that the conventional view is not 'correct'. It relies on an electorate who pay attention and value the importance of free and fair elections. An electorate however increasingly defined by tribalism, culture wars, and "fear of the other side" will not care. At which point all that matters in that you do everything possible (within the law, and sometimes without if you can get away with it) to maximise your own vote and suppress the opposition's.
This could be where we are heading if not very careful. In many ways we are already a long way down the path. Not to the extent that our electoral processes are seriously corrupted/affected. That is the last step. But in all other ways politics is increasingly trending that way.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
A bit like Trump did in the US. Ripped the country apart for nothing worthwhile. Ambitious and narcissistic politicians have cost both countries dearly.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
IIUC the age restriction is about when you take office and she'd just squeak it.
You are all forgetting there is a Kennedy waiting in the wings, warming his throat.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
Zzzzzzzzzzzz.
Get over yourself man.
LOL
this time yesterday you were shitting yourself at the result, unable to comprehend why the Dems massively underdelivered.
Against Trump.
Yes that one.
The polls being wrong is not the same as Biden under-delivering.
What we do know is that many Tories inside and outside the government are rooting for a President who is currently seeking to prevent votes being counted and whose gun-toting supporters are engaged are intimidating election officials as they try to do their jobs. No amount of zzzzzzzing changes that.
The Reps are doing what Gore did in 2000, lawyers the lot. Neither party can claim to be guardians of virtue its simply the States has let its politics get out of control. Quite why you imagine anyone is cheerleading this is beyond me.
Gore did not try to stop votes being counted. His armed supporters did not surround centres where votes were being counted. What we are seeing right now has not happened before.
Is there any more pathetic sight than these losers dressed up as soldiers, walking around trying to scare people. They might as well just wear a giant sign saying "I am a virgin and live in my mom's basement."
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
Yes, it also has this metaphorical usage in the domain of political science.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
IIUC the age restriction is about when you take office and she'd just squeak it.
You are all forgetting there is a Kennedy waiting in the wings, warming his throat.
Hasn't God managed to strike them all down yet? They just keep coming back!!!
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
She's smart enough to be more calculating than that, I think. She'll run for a Senate seat first.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
IIUC the age restriction is about when you take office and she'd just squeak it.
I think the counting of votes in the U.K. would be A LOT slower if there was the same level of legal scrutiny as there is in the US. Basically the U.K. proceeds on the basis that everything is above board, and there is no potential partisanship in the electoral process (so that even if errors are made they are “equal opportunity” and could just as easily favour either side).
It would all have to change if one or other party actually started making serious attempts at corrupting the voting process. And I doubt the system could cope that well with it. It seems to me that the US system is far more advanced and transparent in order to combat potential fraud. But that is because it needs to me.
The U.K. system is designed to be above board, that’s the difference. There’s national regulations and a national oversight body, the mechanics of the election are run by career civil servants rather than elected officials, and results are delivered swiftly with parties observing.
In the USA, you have every state governor and city mayor micromanaging the actual election process, arguing about opening hours and placement of polling stations, rules on absentee and postal ballots, and voter identification - often on a nakedly partisan basis to reduce the turnout of their opponents’ voters.
There seem to me to be equal problems in the USA Electoral Area process.
And it seems to be everywhere, especially the Senate. Here there are various legal duties, and a practise of reflecting other political boundaries - eg my MP's Constituency is close to being the same as the local Council District.
The US House seat boundary setting is so blantantly partisan they even have a word for it, named after Massachusetts governor Elmbridge Gerry, as far back as 1812 - there’s been more than a 200 year history of it! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering
A big difference in the UK is our party-neutral officials. For example, polling districts are decided by local councillors, and hence by politicians, but on a sensitive subject, officers' recommendations carry a lot of weight. I remember a long time ago a proposal to split a polling district so that some council blocks, where turnout was very low, would be made into a separate district with its own polling station in a room off the lobby of one of the blocks. There was some muttering from Conservative councillors, less than keen to increase turnout there, but none was bold enough to vote against it in public.
Now, I guess in some circumstances a proposal like that might get vetoed by a majority council and never see the like of day - but my judgement is that most councillors would be wary of exposing themselves to the risk of it later coming out that an officer recommendation on an electoral matter had been supressed like that. Technically, our officers would have the right to put the proposal to the committee regardless, although it would be a brave officer who did so in the face of a direction otherwise from a leading councillor.
The US administration is partisan partly because so many key appointments are either elected or political.
But this is in part because most UK politicians still believe in a conventional view of politics - that being "exposed" for trying to interfere with electoral processes will lead to retribution. But this is a very thin thread to hang your coat on. There is always the danger that the penny will drop (and there are increasing signs of this) that the conventional view is not 'correct'. It relies on an electorate who pay attention and value the importance of free and fair elections. An electorate however increasingly defined by tribalism, culture wars, and "fear of the other side" will not care. At which point all that matters in that you do everything possible (within the law, and sometimes without if you can get away with it) to maximise your own vote and suppress the opposition's.
This could be where we are heading if not very careful. In many ways we are already a long way down the path. Not to the extent that our electoral processes are seriously corrupted/affected. That is the last step. But in all other ways politics is increasingly trending that way.
A really good discussion and also reinforces the need for quality independent media (online, paper or whatever) that holds those in power to account....
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
Zzzzzzzzzzzz.
Get over yourself man.
LOL
this time yesterday you were shitting yourself at the result, unable to comprehend why the Dems massively underdelivered.
Against Trump.
Yes that one.
The polls being wrong is not the same as Biden under-delivering.
What we do know is that many Tories inside and outside the government are rooting for a President who is currently seeking to prevent votes being counted and whose gun-toting supporters are engaged are intimidating election officials as they try to do their jobs. No amount of zzzzzzzing changes that.
The Reps are doing what Gore did in 2000, lawyers the lot. Neither party can claim to be guardians of virtue its simply the States has let its politics get out of control. Quite why you imagine anyone is cheerleading this is beyond me.
Gore did not try to stop votes being counted. His armed supporters did not surround centres where votes were being counted. What we are seeing right now has not happened before.
Is there any more pathetic sight than these losers dressed up as soldiers, walking around trying to scare people. They might as well just wear a giant sign saying "I am a virgin and live in my mom's basement."
In some cases power draining away from those who held it is rather a sad sight - perhaps Mrs Thatcher or Blair when you consider them in their pomp, but in the case of Trump I think we will find enough emotional resilience to cope with the trauma.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
No, in this context she'd also be cockblocking KLOBUCHAR and Tammy Duckworth and a couple of other more electable lady Democrats.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It's a generic term for stopping someone these days.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
Zzzzzzzzzzzz.
Get over yourself man.
LOL
this time yesterday you were shitting yourself at the result, unable to comprehend why the Dems massively underdelivered.
Against Trump.
Yes that one.
The polls being wrong is not the same as Biden under-delivering.
What we do know is that many Tories inside and outside the government are rooting for a President who is currently seeking to prevent votes being counted and whose gun-toting supporters are engaged are intimidating election officials as they try to do their jobs. No amount of zzzzzzzing changes that.
The Reps are doing what Gore did in 2000, lawyers the lot. Neither party can claim to be guardians of virtue its simply the States has let its politics get out of control. Quite why you imagine anyone is cheerleading this is beyond me.
Gore did not try to stop votes being counted. His armed supporters did not surround centres where votes were being counted. What we are seeing right now has not happened before.
Is there any more pathetic sight than these losers dressed up as soldiers, walking around trying to scare people. They might as well just wear a giant sign saying "I am a virgin and live in my mom's basement."
In some cases power draining away from those who held it is rather a sad sight - perhaps Mrs Thatcher or Blair when you consider them in their pomp, but in the case of Trump I think we will find enough emotional resilience to cope with the trauma.
I am such a bleeding heart that I actually started to feel sorry for Trump yesterday. It was at that point that I realised that on an emotional level I knew that he had lost.
Fox News has just gone loopy now. The interviewer asking a question that describes an electoral registration drive as something that "destroys the integrity of our democracy". It's all threats and bluster and futile accusations of corruption. Apparently when Trump carries all the disputed states he is going to "come back bigger than ever"
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
No, in this context she'd also be cockblocking KLOBUCHAR and Tammy Duckworth and a couple of other more electable lady Democrats.
For a long time I hoped that a Tammy Duckworth - John Lewis ticket might be in the offing.
ATLANTA — The presidential race in Georgia appeared headed for a photo finish as former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. steadily gained ground on President Trump. The victor will be awarded 16 electoral votes.
NYT
90K left to count as of 10pm.
If there were only 30k left and Biden is 23k behind why is he favorite?
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
Zzzzzzzzzzzz.
Get over yourself man.
LOL
this time yesterday you were shitting yourself at the result, unable to comprehend why the Dems massively underdelivered.
Against Trump.
Yes that one.
The polls being wrong is not the same as Biden under-delivering.
What we do know is that many Tories inside and outside the government are rooting for a President who is currently seeking to prevent votes being counted and whose gun-toting supporters are engaged are intimidating election officials as they try to do their jobs. No amount of zzzzzzzing changes that.
The Reps are doing what Gore did in 2000, lawyers the lot. Neither party can claim to be guardians of virtue its simply the States has let its politics get out of control. Quite why you imagine anyone is cheerleading this is beyond me.
Gore did not try to stop votes being counted. His armed supporters did not surround centres where votes were being counted. What we are seeing right now has not happened before.
Is there any more pathetic sight than these losers dressed up as soldiers, walking around trying to scare people. They might as well just wear a giant sign saying "I am a virgin and live in my mom's basement."
In some cases power draining away from those who held it is rather a sad sight - perhaps Mrs Thatcher or Blair when you consider them in their pomp, but in the case of Trump I think we will find enough emotional resilience to cope with the trauma.
I keep reading reviews of the book by the ghastly Barbara Amiel (Mrs Conrad Black). Quite sobering about how quickly rats leave sinking ships. Trump could end up looking very friendless and frightened, and reflecting that Epstein looked untouchable until he didn't.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
No, in this context she'd also be cockblocking KLOBUCHAR and Tammy Duckworth and a couple of other more electable lady Democrats.
So even women can be cockblocked?
I'd be grateful for clarity about this, because I don't want to make a faux pas when I am using this word.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
She's smart enough to be more calculating than that, I think. She'll run for a Senate seat first.
Carpe diem, worst case is she sells some books and builds a mailing list, or whatever the kids are using nowadays.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
This is reminiscent of the moment in his final days when Richard Nixon asked 'all the President's men' to kneel in the Oval Office and pray to Almighty God.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
IIUC the age restriction is about when you take office and she'd just squeak it.
You are all forgetting there is a Kennedy waiting in the wings, warming his throat.
There has to be a strong chance of Kamala being incumbent President in 2024. Indeed Biden has stated that he is a bridge to a new generation.
I was rather disappointed in Kamala in the Primaries, and campaigning doesn't seem her strong suit, but it would be interesting to see how she functions in office.
Attempts by the Republicans to depict her as a "Woke" radical are clearly nonsense. If she wasn't Black and female she would be seen as an unremarkable centrist.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
Yes he will get either 290 or 306.
This talk of nail biting is transitory. In 48 hours we will be talking on here about how it was all comfortable in the end.
He's winning Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and probably Arizona.
Anyone thinking it's going to be a tie or similar is deluded.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
Why should Remainers have united around any policy that they rightly deemed to be firmly against the national interest?
The failure was that the Leavers could not rally around any version of Leave that could have been the basis for a national compromise. If, in the aftermath of the vote, the Tories had said "OK it was close, lets formally leave but -as Dan Hannon publically supported- we will stay in Single Market and EEA" then I might have swallowed hard and said, "OK, we lost but we´ll live with that". But the idea that took root amongst the ERG nutters was that any compromise was some kind of betrayal a "BINO" which was and is total garbage.
The Leavers own this shitshow and trying to blame Remainers for their own utter unability to cut a proper deal is only going to keep the referendum wounds open.
TBH it is now more obvious than ever that we can not rely on the US, since even under Biden they are going to go their own way and under Trump NATO will be a dead letter in three or four years. So we have only have two choices: try to construct some third division CANZUK confederation, which right now is not remotely on the agenda in Canberra, Ottawa or Wellington or maintain a close alignment with the EU which is still negotating to acheive this: so the EU choice is a pretty obvious choice really, and is supported in UK popular opinion.
British democracy is seriously flawed, but I would take it over US democracy.
Indeed.
Imo France has the fairest/best electoral system for choosing the head of state.
Yes, the 2 stage election, weeks apart, is a fine system that minimises the need for tactical voting, and is even better than AV. The final two are clear, and the second stage allows a pause for thought. Do you really want Le Pen?
Eventually, the answer will be yes. Of course, one could argue that by the point that happens Le Pen won't be considered much of an extremist.
That said, they really weren't all that far off Le Pen v Melenchon in 2017, which would have been hilarious.
Which highlights the flaw in the run-off system. Let's say Le Pen and Melenchon were the least acceptable candidates for most voters - the run-off system could easily have meant that the second least acceptable candidate for most voters wins where there are several viable candidates in the first round. Preferential voting or approval voting avoids this and tends to find the candidate that most people find acceptable, even when not most people's first choice. Pros and cons to all systems, but I think finding the candidate that most find acceptable is better, than risking offering people a choice in the second round between 2 extremes that most people really find unacceptable.
Nevertheless credit the Americans for recognising that in a two-party context having at least 50% of the vote does convey legitimacy, and is a requirement in Senate contests. In that respect they are ahead of us, with UK MPs having been "elected" on anything from a quarter of the vote upwards
It’s only GA, LA and MS that have that system. Seems to be a Southern thing. I can only assume it’s because the GOP think it helps them there.
Comments
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Nov_2020/2020-11-04-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
7-day incidence increased to 125.8 per 100,000.
COVID19 patients in intensive care: 2546 (up from 948 from 2 weeks earlier)
Estimated 7-day R value: down to 0.92
Tests done (in calendar week 44): 1,567,083
Proportion positive: 7.26% (7 weeks earlier this was below 1%)
Apparently there are currently 7000 intensive care beds free. Now more could be made available, eg by using recovery rooms, but the problem is going to be finding the staff to cover the extra places - especially when we get outbreaks among staff.
There have been a few Belgium patients taken to hospitals here in NRW, but I think the spare capacity will be used up before long.
The Lords may try inserting an amendment for instance saying that it applies after this Parliament and that this next election must still be no later than May 2024.
Not saying it will happen but it requires the law changing still.
I didn't mean to imply Georgia would be enough by itself.
They were able to hide their rapidly decomposing Brexit beneath his petticoat.
Or if he died before Biden is declared President-Elect would Pence become 46?
Or if either happened before Jan 20th?
I guess someone must have thought of all these eventualities.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
The more miserable Brexit becomes, the more compelling that argument
He may be a Pelosi but he’s a good Governor and would be a good candidate for a bigger job
NYT
90K left to count as of 10pm.
So it’s a logical impossibility
Wikipedia:
"Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
Edit: though if a realistic prospect, would get widespread support from LD members.
This could be where we are heading if not very careful. In many ways we are already a long way down the path. Not to the extent that our electoral processes are seriously corrupted/affected. That is the last step. But in all other ways politics is increasingly trending that way.
Wouldn't touch it, the amount of craziness going on.
..an online shopping delivery.
She'll run for a Senate seat first.
Just press 'politics'
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
Or something!
Strange
I had a long Trump position and held it.
You had a long Biden position and shipped it.
But just think of the joy we have brought those punters on the other sides of our bets.
I'd be grateful for clarity about this, because I don't want to make a faux pas when I am using this word.
I was rather disappointed in Kamala in the Primaries, and campaigning doesn't seem her strong suit, but it would be interesting to see how she functions in office.
Attempts by the Republicans to depict her as a "Woke" radical are clearly nonsense. If she wasn't Black and female she would be seen as an unremarkable centrist.
This talk of nail biting is transitory. In 48 hours we will be talking on here about how it was all comfortable in the end.
He's winning Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and probably Arizona.
Anyone thinking it's going to be a tie or similar is deluded.
The failure was that the Leavers could not rally around any version of Leave that could have been the basis for a national compromise. If, in the aftermath of the vote, the Tories had said "OK it was close, lets formally leave but -as Dan Hannon publically supported- we will stay in Single Market and EEA" then I might have swallowed hard and said, "OK, we lost but we´ll live with that". But the idea that took root amongst the ERG nutters was that any compromise was some kind of betrayal a "BINO" which was and is total garbage.
The Leavers own this shitshow and trying to blame Remainers for their own utter unability to cut a proper deal is only going to keep the referendum wounds open.
TBH it is now more obvious than ever that we can not rely on the US, since even under Biden they are going to go their own way and under Trump NATO will be a dead letter in three or four years. So we have only have two choices: try to construct some third division CANZUK confederation, which right now is not remotely on the agenda in Canberra, Ottawa or Wellington or maintain a close alignment with the EU which is still negotating to acheive this: so the EU choice is a pretty obvious choice really, and is supported in UK popular opinion.