Is Arizona still in play then? It's a lot closer with more than 10% of votes remaining.
I think it will go Biden in the end (narrowly) as I think there are still dem-leaning votes to come, but probably the one where Trump has the greatest chance. I don’t expect it to change the overall result.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
Not quite as dull as your continuing apologies for Trump and his mob.
The defence of the opioid guys was worse. Completely irrelevantly bringing up artistic donations when the company was so guilty they even admitted it on top of paying billions. Shameful attempt to confuse the situation under the guise of asking, again irrelevantly, about how well the fine would be spent.
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
Just leave it to the various state authorities. Which sidesteps both of the above problems.
Agreed. Just treat him like a fart in a lift. Ignore it.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
No, in this context she'd also be cockblocking KLOBUCHAR and Tammy Duckworth and a couple of other more electable lady Democrats.
So even women can be cockblocked?
I'd be grateful for clarity about this, because I don't want to make a faux pas when I am using this word.
Can we find a better expression? Cockblocking does have a whiff of misogyny about it. The term seems to imply the right to sexually penetrate, rather than a consensual act.
The alternative using the female anatomical expression sounds even ruder
How about taking anatomy out of it and just use the word "block"?
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
I noted last night they still haven’t put WI in the Biden column and to see it still like that this morning is shocking. Unfortunately they are not good at covering US elections. They are too cautious and never really seem to have a grasp of the process.
Ralston clearly thinks Biden is going to be home and dry. Results from 9:00 PST (17:00 GMT).
I do find it amazing that the US is not set up to count and report 27/7 in the battleground states.
He does, it seems there are a lot of Clark votes in there incl some postals from prior to Eday, all of which is good for Biden. I am expecting Trump to deploy his lawyers there too (if he hasnt already of course) The newly appt SCJ is going to be busy!
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
He's right though. Tories *are* desperate for Trump to win.
Some. I see plenty of Tories who are not. It's very overplayed. As noted yesterday there's footage of Boris and other world leaders having a laugh about Trump together, hes not some love sick puppy about the man, and even if he was desperate for Trump to win for policy reasons well hes probably mistaken, but that also wouldn't mean much to plenty of Tories who hate Trump.
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
The prospect of Eric in USP Victorville trying to learn the Spanish for, "Please stop, it's hurting." should be compelling.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
No, in this context she'd also be cockblocking KLOBUCHAR and Tammy Duckworth and a couple of other more electable lady Democrats.
So even women can be cockblocked?
I'd be grateful for clarity about this, because I don't want to make a faux pas when I am using this word.
Can we find a better expression? Cockblocking does have a whiff of misogyny about it. The term seems to imply the right to sexually penetrate, rather than a consensual act.
The alternative using the female anatomical expression sounds even ruder
How about taking anatomy out of it and just use the word "block"?
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
I'm a BBC supporter and like the Today programme and Politics Live, but the reporting on both the day after was hours behind the facts and boy did the facts change making the reporting useless.
My instinct says it will be a strong showing for the GOP - it is absolutely classic for Dem voters to stay at home in mid terms. But...
As the wise sage @HYUFD says "Trump will not be on the ballot". Maybe that will matter in this mid-term. If you believe Trump has forged a unique coalition of voters then without Trump what happens to that coalition?
I think on balance it will be a horror show for the Dems but I do have an inkling of doubt now.
That surely isn't yet determined ? Much depends on how Biden governs.
Politico has a good article up, which concludes like this: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/04/democrats-trump-voters-434100 ...For four years, Democrats have been caught in what might be thought of as the contempt conundrum. The only principled response to Trump’s shredding of norms and defiance of accountability is steadfast opposition. This, at times, can goad them into the same politics of insult and indignation in which Trump thrives. It was no accident that the opportunity to register a verdict on the Trump years inspired surges of new voting on both sides of the question.
The conditions that created Trump will end only when one party or the other achieves a decisive advantage with voters that carries them to unchallenged majority status across Washington and deep into the states. Democrats thought this might be the year that happened. Some 67 million Trump voters—several million less than Biden won but several million more than Trump got four years ago—said not so fast.
When Democrats ask Trump voters “What is your problem?” it is another way of asking themselves, “What is our problem?”
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
I would look at the people who run the BBC World Service - they seem to have a much better ethos on news. They seem to understand the difference between news and the opinions of expensive talking heads....
Yes, the streaming revolution was an incredible missed opportunity. Instead of back slapping themselves on managing to block channel encryption on broadcast digital, they could have gone for it... Yes, there were rights issues for older programs. But the prize was that the paying audience, worldwide for BBC content would be larger than the license fee....
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
Nope. It gets him to 269 WITHOUT AZ.
And without Nevada. 269 is not going to happen
No indeed. This is a footnote discussion whilst we wile away the time. Biden is going to sail past 270.
We don't know yet. There's still a 10% chance Trump will win. Sorry to be a party pooper.
How do you work that out? Do you mean on the betting markets?
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
IIUC the age restriction is about when you take office and she'd just squeak it.
You are all forgetting there is a Kennedy waiting in the wings, warming his throat.
There has to be a strong chance of Kamala being incumbent President in 2024. Indeed Biden has stated that he is a bridge to a new generation.
I was rather disappointed in Kamala in the Primaries, and campaigning doesn't seem her strong suit, but it would be interesting to see how she functions in office.
Attempts by the Republicans to depict her as a "Woke" radical are clearly nonsense. If she wasn't Black and female she would be seen as an unremarkable centrist.
Be interesting if anyone dare challenge her in the primaries. I can't see any credible Male figure trying to unseat the first female president as she might be at that point.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
Don't forget the full extent of Hillary's PV win took a few weeks to shake down.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
He's right though. Tories *are* desperate for Trump to win.
Some. I see plenty of Tories who are not. It's very overplayed. As noted yesterday there's footage of Boris and other world leaders having a laugh about Trump together, hes not some love sick puppy about the man, and even if he was desperate for Trump to win for policy reasons well hes probably mistaken, but that also wouldn't mean much to plenty of Tories who hate Trump.
There's certainly a lot of very angry and upset Trump supporters on the Daily Mail website at the moment. There's an intersection between a certain number of Brexit and Trump supporters, which was indeed reflected at the highest levels of the Brexit campaign, but the Tory party itself, rather than some its supporters and leaders, is a slightly different question, I think.
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
Post presidency Trump will be an interesting thing to track. The best outcome would be that his criminality and corruption is exposed so clearly and publicly that all but the most deluded of his base drift away from their adoration. Whether he actually goes to jail or not is secondary to this imo.
My instinct says it will be a strong showing for the GOP - it is absolutely classic for Dem voters to stay at home in mid terms. But...
As the wise sage @HYUFD says "Trump will not be on the ballot". Maybe that will matter in this mid-term. If you believe Trump has forged a unique coalition of voters then without Trump what happens to that coalition?
I think on balance it will be a horror show for the Dems but I do have an inkling of doubt now.
The Democrats are in a similar position to the Republicans in 2000, who held the Senate on a tie-break, and the House by a very slim margin. Ordinarily, you would expect the House to flip comfortably to the other side, and for them to make gains in the Senate. And, across the board in State legislatures. Especially, as the Democrats have failed to make the gains in State legislatures this time that would give them control of redistricting.
But, if there were a war, the reverse might happen, as in 2002.
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
If it ends up as a 4pp lead as I think I have seen forecast then it's about a normal error margin from the 7-8pp average in the polls. Some of the state polls out by much more of course, although some pretty accurate. I suspect we have not seen a knock out blow for the polling industry.
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
Don't forget the full extent of Hillary's PV win took a few weeks to shake down.
I always forget about how inept CA is at counting, sorry.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
IIUC the age restriction is about when you take office and she'd just squeak it.
You are all forgetting there is a Kennedy waiting in the wings, warming his throat.
There has to be a strong chance of Kamala being incumbent President in 2024. Indeed Biden has stated that he is a bridge to a new generation.
I was rather disappointed in Kamala in the Primaries, and campaigning doesn't seem her strong suit, but it would be interesting to see how she functions in office.
Attempts by the Republicans to depict her as a "Woke" radical are clearly nonsense. If she wasn't Black and female she would be seen as an unremarkable centrist.
Be interesting if anyone dare challenge her in the primaries. I can't see any credible Male figure trying to unseat the first female president as she might be at that point.
When was the last time an incumbent was seriously challenged in the primaries? LBJ in 1968?
And once again, in Georgia the Republican Senate candidate (50.1%) is outperforming the President (49.65%), a pattern which we have seen elsewhere. It's very unusual.
This calls a lie to the nonsense (HYUFD) that Donald Trump would be the GOP candidate in 2024. He's a liability and the knives are sharpening in the Republican party.
If that is so why has Trump got the second highest voteshare in the popular vote of any Republican presidential nominee of the last 30 years bar George W Bush? If he loses and ran again in 2024 the base of the GOP might well vote for him again.
The fact the Republican Senate candidate in Georgia is outperforming Trump is mainly a result of Trump voters combining with establishment Republicans, a few of the latter will have voted for Biden, in 2018 Trump voters did not turn out. Georgia whatever its final result has also never been a great state for Trump, Hillary did OK there in 2016 and Biden has a chance of victory there fore the first time since Bill Clinton in 1992, Ohio and Florida and Iowa by contrast, all states won by Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, have given Trump a bigger victory margin than even Bush got in 2004
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
Just leave it to the various state authorities. Which sidesteps both of the above problems.
Agreed. Just treat him like a fart in a lift. Ignore it.
I don't think he, nor several members of his family should be ignored. They should be hit for every law they have broken so as to stop any crook or potential dictator doing the damage they have done again. But I agree Biden should be arms length from this as should the Democratic party. It should be left to the appropriate authorities.
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
When all is said and done I think this has “shy Trump” written all over it. People didn’t want to admit for voting for him but felt he was more attuned to their sensibilities. A fear of a culture war (this well-meaning but overplayed liberal identity politics from the left is becoming a severe vote loser) and a perception of economic self interest (I trust him not to raise my taxes and get the economy booming again but I don’t trust the liberal) might have driven it.
And once again, in Georgia the Republican Senate candidate (50.1%) is outperforming the President (49.65%), a pattern which we have seen elsewhere. It's very unusual.
This calls a lie to the nonsense (HYUFD) that Donald Trump would be the GOP candidate in 2024. He's a liability and the knives are sharpening in the Republican party.
If that is so why has Trump got the second highest voteshare in the popular vote of any Republican presidential nominee of the last 30 years bar George W Bush?
If you can't work that out from facts in the public domain, given past history it would be pointless to try to explain it to you.
Come to think of it, given past history it would be pointless to try to explain anything to you. Ever.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
As I said the other day if in another universe the Rust Belt had been declared on the night and the Southern states the following day we would have gone to bed happy in the knowledge of a landslide (anticipating Texas and Florida to be added to the Biden total).
I don't think you would expect a landslide. The swings in the rustbelt States were not big. You'd expect Texas to be a hold, and Florida to be very tight.
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
Indeed they were , except for good old Rasmussen. I think IBD also had some polls with Biden around 3% or so up. There are still quite a few votes to come in of course so the current number may go up over 3? Not sure. Personally I expected 4 maybe even 5% , it was never going to be 8 or 9. But yes the NV will be quite a long way out again.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
The Republican Party is three different parties, though, held together by a fear of the Democratic agenda. There are religious Conservatives whose biggest concern is abortion. There's the protectionist / isolationists, and there are the people who want a low regulation, low tax economy.
If Tom Cotton takes the lead in 2024 (and he may well do), then it's the protectionist / isolationist wing that take the Presidency (I'm pencilling 2024 as a Republican gain). If it's Marco Rubio, Ducey or Walker, then it's the low regulation guys (who are pretty free trade led). And if it's a Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee figure (although probably not one of those guys), then it's the Religious Conservatives.
I don't think it's clear which faction has the lead yet.
And if the Supreme Court defangs Roe vs Wade, then can the Religious Conservatives hold together? If abortion were to become a state issue, it might fundamentally change American politics.
Then there's Obamacare. The low regulation / low tax guys hate it. But most of the protectionist / isolationists like it, if not the name.
In other words, we don't know what the Republican Party will choose to be. Because those three factions are only really united by a common enemy. (Not that the Dems are any better.)
VP Pence will also likely run in 2024 whether Trump is re elected or more likely now he loses and combines support in the religious conservative and fiscal conservative wings
Their case numbers look to still be rising, or at least can't see much of a decline from their firebreak... and they have about as many people in hospital as at the peak back in April...
Maybe I'm missing something - but planning to reopen on 9th November doesn't seem wise...
They’ve got a big problem and are also in danger of seriously undermining Starmer’s position on England.
The most probable outcome is that Wales follows the England restrictions* - particularly since the furlough money is now there.
*Calling them a lockdown seems ridiculous
When you can leave to house to go to work or exercise, it’s definitely not a lockdown by any definition.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
The Democrats did really well in the Senate in 2012, but fell short this time around.
Yes, in practical terms this is the disappointment. Trump out was the main thing. Tick. But a Rep senate leaves his enablers unpunished.
And once again, in Georgia the Republican Senate candidate (50.1%) is outperforming the President (49.65%), a pattern which we have seen elsewhere. It's very unusual.
This calls a lie to the nonsense (HYUFD) that Donald Trump would be the GOP candidate in 2024. He's a liability and the knives are sharpening in the Republican party.
If that is so why has Trump got the second highest voteshare in the popular vote of any Republican presidential nominee of the last 30 years bar George W Bush? If he loses and ran again in 2024 the base of the GOP might well vote for him again.
The fact the Republican Senate candidate in Georgia is outperforming Trump is mainly a result of Trump voters combining with establishment Republicans, a few of the latter will have voted for Biden, in 2018 Trump voters did not turn out. Georgia whatever its final result has also never been a great state for Trump, Hillary did OK there in 2016 and Biden has a chance of victory there fore the first time since Bill Clinton in 1992, Ohio and Florida and Iowa by contrast, all states won by Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, have given Trump a bigger victory margin than even Bush got in 2004
To support what Rose is saying, all the down ticket splitting GOP out performs Trump. Whilst Biden won the WH, Dems went the wrong way in the HoR, to the extent that Pelosi is finished by the failure. So there is clearly splitting and writing in by conservatives.
The Old GOP, dominated by WASPs from New England is long gone, and it had gone thirty years ago.
As Alanbrooke says, parties are always adding to, and losing voters from, their coalitions. Georgia is now a swing State, Virginia and Colorado are lost for good, but Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are now solid Red.
Indeed, until 1992 the GOP had never lost New Hampshire or Maine at a postwar presidential election except 1964, since 1992 they have never won either state except in 2000 when Bush narrowly won New Hampshire.
Before 2004 the Democrats had also normally won Iowa and West Virginia even if they lost, as Dukakis did in 1988 for instance, now both states will vote for Trump even as is likely he loses the presidential election
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
IIUC the age restriction is about when you take office and she'd just squeak it.
You are all forgetting there is a Kennedy waiting in the wings, warming his throat.
There has to be a strong chance of Kamala being incumbent President in 2024. Indeed Biden has stated that he is a bridge to a new generation.
I was rather disappointed in Kamala in the Primaries, and campaigning doesn't seem her strong suit, but it would be interesting to see how she functions in office.
Attempts by the Republicans to depict her as a "Woke" radical are clearly nonsense. If she wasn't Black and female she would be seen as an unremarkable centrist.
Be interesting if anyone dare challenge her in the primaries. I can't see any credible Male figure trying to unseat the first female president as she might be at that point.
When was the last time an incumbent was seriously challenged in the primaries? LBJ in 1968?
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
When all is said and done I think this has “shy Trump” written all over it. People didn’t want to admit for voting for him but felt he was more attuned to their sensibilities. A fear of a culture war (this well-meaning but overplayed liberal identity politics from the left is becoming a severe vote loser) and a perception of economic self interest (I trust him not to raise my taxes and get the economy booming again but I don’t trust the liberal) might have driven it.
The shy Trumper aspect may not be as significant as you think. Trump has cleaned up in rural areas and I suspect that pollsters have mainly been surveying more populace areas and so missed or under-weighted rural voters. Secondly, even in the metropolitan areas I strongly believe that liberals and left-wing individuals are far more amenable to responding to surveys than many Trump voters would be. I think these two aspects weigh much more heavily than shy Trumpers.
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
Self pardoning is crazy but I bet the court says that's legal. though I note from the hilarious Ford pardon of Nixon part of its weaselly justification was that hed already been punished by voluntarily leaving the presidency, Iirc. Voluntarily. It isn't punishment if you've already been voted out.
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
They seem to have failed on GOP turnout, Biden after all does have the largest vote in US presidential election history which in normal circs would imply a big pv lead.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
No, in this context she'd also be cockblocking KLOBUCHAR and Tammy Duckworth and a couple of other more electable lady Democrats.
So even women can be cockblocked?
I'd be grateful for clarity about this, because I don't want to make a faux pas when I am using this word.
Can we find a better expression? Cockblocking does have a whiff of misogyny about it. The term seems to imply the right to sexually penetrate, rather than a consensual act.
The alternative using the female anatomical expression sounds even ruder
How about taking anatomy out of it and just use the word "block"?
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
I said last night that they are utterly useless at US elections, and have been for years.
When Obama won in 2008 they refused to call it for him because “then we would be assuming he will win California”.
I switched over at that exact point, and have never gone back.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
As I said the other day if in another universe the Rust Belt had been declared on the night and the Southern states the following day we would have gone to bed happy in the knowledge of a landslide (anticipating Texas and Florida to be added to the Biden total).
I'd anticipated Florida staying red (it was my chunkiest hedge bet) but I was a bit disappointed by Texas. Not so much that it didn't flip, always a stretch, but that it wasn't even particularly close.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
AOC is a female Corbyn in US terms, if Biden wins and does not run again in 2024 you could see the reverse from the Republicans next term, picking an establishment former VP like Pence to be their Biden to beat AOC if she is the Democratic candidate as she would be the most far left Democratic candidate since McGovern, who Nixon trounced in 1972.
AOC even more than Trump would mainly be a candidate for the base
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
He's right though. Tories *are* desperate for Trump to win.
Some. I see plenty of Tories who are not. It's very overplayed. As noted yesterday there's footage of Boris and other world leaders having a laugh about Trump together, hes not some love sick puppy about the man, and even if he was desperate for Trump to win for policy reasons well hes probably mistaken, but that also wouldn't mean much to plenty of Tories who hate Trump.
There's certainly a lot of very angry and upset Trump supporters on the Daily Mail website at the moment. There's an intersection between a certain number of Brexit and Trump supporters, which was indeed reflected at the highest levels of the Brexit campaign, but the Tory party itself, rather than some its supporters and leaders, is a slightly different question, I think.
Their case numbers look to still be rising, or at least can't see much of a decline from their firebreak... and they have about as many people in hospital as at the peak back in April...
Maybe I'm missing something - but planning to reopen on 9th November doesn't seem wise...
They’ve got a big problem and are also in danger of seriously undermining Starmer’s position on England.
The most probable outcome is that Wales follows the England restrictions* - particularly since the furlough money is now there.
*Calling them a lockdown seems ridiculous
When you can leave to house to go to work or exercise, it’s definitely not a lockdown by any definition.
The firebreak in Wales is only for 17 days, which is just about the time for the incubation period, so we aren't going to see any drop until next week at least. As in England and Scotland, the present deaths are from people mixing at the start of October, we can't do anything about those, we can't go back in time.
Ralston clearly thinks Biden is going to be home and dry. Results from 9:00 PST (17:00 GMT).
I do find it amazing that the US is not set up to count and report 27/7 in the battleground states.
27/7 ?
The whole world is watching, so it’s reputational damage, the markets watching a major economy, arguably brexit talks paused and go two different ways on outcome, also window bangers with guns gathering at counts, how difficult to arrange teams in 8 hour shifts for 24/7 counting?
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
When all is said and done I think this has “shy Trump” written all over it. People didn’t want to admit for voting for him but felt he was more attuned to their sensibilities. A fear of a culture war (this well-meaning but overplayed liberal identity politics from the left is becoming a severe vote loser) and a perception of economic self interest (I trust him not to raise my taxes and get the economy booming again but I don’t trust the liberal) might have driven it.
The shy Trumper aspect may not be as significant as you think. Trump has cleaned up in rural areas and I suspect that pollsters have mainly been surveying more populace areas and so missed or under-weighted rural voters. Secondly, even in the metropolitan areas I strongly believe that liberals and left-wing individuals are far more amenable to responding to surveys than many Trump voters would be. I think these two aspects weigh much more heavily than shy Trumpers.
The shy Trumper theory looks very strong when you look at the rise in support he seems to have had from various minority groups.
The Old GOP, dominated by WASPs from New England is long gone, and it had gone thirty years ago.
As Alanbrooke says, parties are always adding to, and losing voters from, their coalitions. Georgia is now a swing State, Virginia and Colorado are lost for good, but Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are now solid Red.
Indeed, until 1992 the GOP had never lost New Hampshire or Maine at a postwar presidential election except 1964, since 1992 they have never won either state except in 2000 when Bush narrowly won New Hampshire.
Before 2004 the Democrats had also normally won Iowa and West Virginia even if they lost, as Dukakis did in 1988 for instance, now both states will vote for Trump even as is likely he loses the presidential election
And Vermont used to be one of the safest states for the GOP.
"But Pericles built the Parthenon, not the Emirates Cable Car."
Seriously worth reading. Johnson as Egil Skallagrimsson rather than Pericles.
Don't forget that Rory himself, as a former President of the Arnold & Brackenbury, has had years of training in the art of delivering witty nonsense on any conceivable subject at a moment's notice...
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
Ignoring your “sore winner” snipe at Remainers, the “join EFTA (or something that looks very much like EFTA)” campaign effectively starts 1 January.
However it will take place in think tanks and the bowels of Whitehall rather than being an overtly public campaign.
By 2024 it will be considered simple common sense. I don’t expect “Brexit” to dominate those elections.
A Biden win certainly makes it far more likely Boris will compromise with the EU to get a FTA with no US deal in the offing from Biden unless he does so
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
If anything the converse is true. Why should the British taxpayer be paying for up to the minute reports on an election result in another country? Go to CNN or something for that.
Yes, he's highlighting he's a loser as far as we're concerned. Maybe he's going to spend 4 years saying his loss was owed to fraudulence, and then have another shot in 2024!
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
Yes. Predicted 8, going to be 3 point something. A big miss.
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
If it ends up as a 4pp lead as I think I have seen forecast then it's about a normal error margin from the 7-8pp average in the polls. Some of the state polls out by much more of course, although some pretty accurate. I suspect we have not seen a knock out blow for the polling industry.
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
Indeed they were , except for good old Rasmussen. I think IBD also had some polls with Biden around 3% or so up. There are still quite a few votes to come in of course so the current number may go up over 3? Not sure. Personally I expected 4 maybe even 5% , it was never going to be 8 or 9. But yes the NV will be quite a long way out again.
They got Biden's share of 50% about right, however they underestimated the shy Trump's, putting Trump on about 43% when he has actually got about 48% so far
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
When all is said and done I think this has “shy Trump” written all over it. People didn’t want to admit for voting for him but felt he was more attuned to their sensibilities. A fear of a culture war (this well-meaning but overplayed liberal identity politics from the left is becoming a severe vote loser) and a perception of economic self interest (I trust him not to raise my taxes and get the economy booming again but I don’t trust the liberal) might have driven it.
The shy Trumper aspect may not be as significant as you think. Trump has cleaned up in rural areas and I suspect that pollsters have mainly been surveying more populace areas and so missed or under-weighted rural voters. Secondly, even in the metropolitan areas I strongly believe that liberals and left-wing individuals are far more amenable to responding to surveys than many Trump voters would be. I think these two aspects weigh much more heavily than shy Trumpers.
The shy Trumper theory looks very strong when you look at the rise in support he seems to have had from various minority groups.
I remember the thought of that was scoffed at quite frequently. It is funny when people don't behave the way you expect/want.
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
Don't forget the full extent of Hillary's PV win took a few weeks to shake down.
I always forget about how inept CA is at counting, sorry.
Well why would the state spend millions in fast voting when the result is never in doubt there?
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
When all is said and done I think this has “shy Trump” written all over it. People didn’t want to admit for voting for him but felt he was more attuned to their sensibilities. A fear of a culture war (this well-meaning but overplayed liberal identity politics from the left is becoming a severe vote loser) and a perception of economic self interest (I trust him not to raise my taxes and get the economy booming again but I don’t trust the liberal) might have driven it.
The shy Trumper aspect may not be as significant as you think. Trump has cleaned up in rural areas and I suspect that pollsters have mainly been surveying more populace areas and so missed or under-weighted rural voters. Secondly, even in the metropolitan areas I strongly believe that liberals and left-wing individuals are far more amenable to responding to surveys than many Trump voters would be. I think these two aspects weigh much more heavily than shy Trumpers.
The shy Trumper theory looks very strong when you look at the rise in support he seems to have had from various minority groups.
Yes, that`s a good point - may be true. However, it could also be true that minority groups are less likely to be polled in the first place.
"Shy Trumper" by definition refers to individuals who didn`t want to admit they supported Trump (or outright lied and claimed to be voting for Biden). It does not cover cohorts which are simply missed by the posters.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
Ignoring your “sore winner” snipe at Remainers, the “join EFTA (or something that looks very much like EFTA)” campaign effectively starts 1 January.
However it will take place in think tanks and the bowels of Whitehall rather than being an overtly public campaign.
By 2024 it will be considered simple common sense. I don’t expect “Brexit” to dominate those elections.
A Biden win certainly makes it far more likely Boris will compromise with the EU to get a FTA with no US deal in the offing from Biden unless he does so
No, we will compromise because No Deal is impossible for us to implement on New Year's Day. So we have to have a deal. And the deal on offer is the current deal in a pretty dress and a new name.
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
When all is said and done I think this has “shy Trump” written all over it. People didn’t want to admit for voting for him but felt he was more attuned to their sensibilities. A fear of a culture war (this well-meaning but overplayed liberal identity politics from the left is becoming a severe vote loser) and a perception of economic self interest (I trust him not to raise my taxes and get the economy booming again but I don’t trust the liberal) might have driven it.
The shy Trumper aspect may not be as significant as you think. Trump has cleaned up in rural areas and I suspect that pollsters have mainly been surveying more populace areas and so missed or under-weighted rural voters. Secondly, even in the metropolitan areas I strongly believe that liberals and left-wing individuals are far more amenable to responding to surveys than many Trump voters would be. I think these two aspects weigh much more heavily than shy Trumpers.
I think Stocky is generally right, the failure is more that the polling companies did not / could not get sufficient samples of people in certain categories vs people who didn't want to admit voting for Trump or outright lied. In some ways, that is more problematic for the industry because it is a more fundamental issue than a one-off Trump-related point.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
Says the man who called women pundits on TV “screeching harpies”.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
Yes, it is. HY ramped Trump relentlessly, and as others have said, the PV margin against him will probably finish up being fairly clear. A couple of the Trafalgar guesses landed close but most of them were no better than the predictions from ChrisChris the squirrel.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
I'll give them credit for sticking around, unlike a couple of told-you-so merchants who stuck their angry wee heads up yesterday morning only to disappear as the so that they told turned up not to be so.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
Ignoring your “sore winner” snipe at Remainers, the “join EFTA (or something that looks very much like EFTA)” campaign effectively starts 1 January.
However it will take place in think tanks and the bowels of Whitehall rather than being an overtly public campaign.
By 2024 it will be considered simple common sense. I don’t expect “Brexit” to dominate those elections.
A Biden win certainly makes it far more likely Boris will compromise with the EU to get a FTA with no US deal in the offing from Biden unless he does so
No, we will compromise because No Deal is impossible for us to implement on New Year's Day. So we have to have a deal. And the deal on offer is the current deal in a pretty dress and a new name.
That looks suspiciously like we don't have all the cards
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
If anything the converse is true. Why should the British taxpayer be paying for up to the minute reports on an election result in another country? Go to CNN or something for that.
Yes, isn’t this what they pay John Sopel for? He can update every few hours, based on watching CNN and Fox.
Ralston clearly thinks Biden is going to be home and dry. Results from 9:00 PST (17:00 GMT).
I do find it amazing that the US is not set up to count and report 27/7 in the battleground states.
27/7 ?
The whole world is watching, so it’s reputational damage, the markets watching a major economy, arguably brexit talks paused and go two different ways on outcome, also window bangers with guns gathering at counts, how difficult to arrange teams in 8 hour shifts for 24/7 counting?
I think you overlooked the typo.
But more seriously, given that scrutiny of the process is as important, if not more so, than speed, given the contested nature of the count, a 24/7 hour process simply isn't possible.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
For me the thing is it can be very close and not close at the same time. As we know from Trump a few thousand in the right place and you win comfortably. So it could both be closer than many thought as potential swing states like Florida formed up for Trump and the winning margin in other key states was much closer than expected, but not close in EC terms. In that situation someones EC guess being out by a couple of dozen might mean they called 2 states wrong by 0.5%, which is not bad.
Comments
The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come.
As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
Much depends on how Biden governs.
Politico has a good article up, which concludes like this:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/04/democrats-trump-voters-434100
...For four years, Democrats have been caught in what might be thought of as the contempt conundrum. The only principled response to Trump’s shredding of norms and defiance of accountability is steadfast opposition. This, at times, can goad them into the same politics of insult and indignation in which Trump thrives. It was no accident that the opportunity to register a verdict on the Trump years inspired surges of new voting on both sides of the question.
The conditions that created Trump will end only when one party or the other achieves a decisive advantage with voters that carries them to unchallenged majority status across Washington and deep into the states. Democrats thought this might be the year that happened. Some 67 million Trump voters—several million less than Biden won but several million more than Trump got four years ago—said not so fast.
When Democrats ask Trump voters “What is your problem?” it is another way of asking themselves, “What is our problem?”
Yes, the streaming revolution was an incredible missed opportunity. Instead of back slapping themselves on managing to block channel encryption on broadcast digital, they could have gone for it... Yes, there were rights issues for older programs. But the prize was that the paying audience, worldwide for BBC content would be larger than the license fee....
But, if there were a war, the reverse might happen, as in 2002.
The fact the Republican Senate candidate in Georgia is outperforming Trump is mainly a result of Trump voters combining with establishment Republicans, a few of the latter will have voted for Biden, in 2018 Trump voters did not turn out. Georgia whatever its final result has also never been a great state for Trump, Hillary did OK there in 2016 and Biden has a chance of victory there fore the first time since Bill Clinton in 1992, Ohio and Florida and Iowa by contrast, all states won by Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, have given Trump a bigger victory margin than even Bush got in 2004
Come to think of it, given past history it would be pointless to try to explain anything to you. Ever.
Anyone who needs 1% guaranteed return on their money could do worse than invest in that.
Seriously worth reading. Johnson as Egil Skallagrimsson rather than Pericles.
Before 2004 the Democrats had also normally won Iowa and West Virginia even if they lost, as Dukakis did in 1988 for instance, now both states will vote for Trump even as is likely he loses the presidential election
https://twitter.com/MatthewKeysLive/status/1324101334140792832
When Obama won in 2008 they refused to call it for him because “then we would be assuming he will win California”.
I switched over at that exact point, and have never gone back.
AOC even more than Trump would mainly be a candidate for the base
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
https://procartoonists.org/portfolios/stevebell/album/picture/3829/
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cartoon/2014/sep/10/steve-bell-cartoon-scottish-independence-john-major-referendum
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
Trump is 2.6% behind in Arizona with 86% in.
PA Timing of results:The remaining mail ballots are expected to favor Democrats. PA
AZ Timing of results:Officials in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, said they would release another results update after 9 p.m. Eastern.
Arizona's remaining results are unlikely to be as skewed as Pennsylvania given the greater propensity for mail in voting in Arizona by both sides ?
"Shy Trumper" by definition refers to individuals who didn`t want to admit they supported Trump (or outright lied and claimed to be voting for Biden). It does not cover cohorts which are simply missed by the posters.
But more seriously, given that scrutiny of the process is as important, if not more so, than speed, given the contested nature of the count, a 24/7 hour process simply isn't possible.