ATLANTA — The presidential race in Georgia appeared headed for a photo finish as former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. steadily gained ground on President Trump. The victor will be awarded 16 electoral votes.
NYT
90K left to count as of 10pm.
If there were only 30k left and Biden is 23k behind why is he favorite?
This is reminiscent of the moment in his final days when Richard Nixon asked 'all the President's men' to kneel in the Oval Office and pray to Almighty God.
I bet Kissinger would have just loved that.
Indeed!
An extraordinary finale to an extraordinary presidency, which is how we will come to view 'that' speech by Donald Trump.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
She's smart enough to be more calculating than that, I think. She'll run for a Senate seat first.
Capitol Hill politicians should be banned from running for President. They should all be drawn from the Gubernatorial group. People who actually have experience of running things and having to work with competing political forces in state legislatures.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
No, in this context she'd also be cockblocking KLOBUCHAR and Tammy Duckworth and a couple of other more electable lady Democrats.
So even women can be cockblocked?
I'd be grateful for clarity about this, because I don't want to make a faux pas when I am using this word.
Yes, but to avoid embarassment be careful not to use the term in this way outside the context of political science or psephology.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
IIUC the age restriction is about when you take office and she'd just squeak it.
You are all forgetting there is a Kennedy waiting in the wings, warming his throat.
There has to be a strong chance of Kamala being incumbent President in 2024. Indeed Biden has stated that he is a bridge to a new generation.
I was rather disappointed in Kamala in the Primaries, and campaigning doesn't seem her strong suit, but it would be interesting to see how she functions in office.
Attempts by the Republicans to depict her as a "Woke" radical are clearly nonsense. If she wasn't Black and female she would be seen as an unremarkable centrist.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
Ignoring your “sore winner” snipe at Remainers, the “join EFTA (or something that looks very much like EFTA)” campaign effectively starts 1 January.
However it will take place in think tanks and the bowels of Whitehall rather than being an overtly public campaign.
By 2024 it will be considered simple common sense. I don’t expect “Brexit” to dominate those elections.
Ugh, I am clearly still very tired. Philly alone doesn't have enough votes to get Biden PA. But it does get him. With 50k with 500k votes left to count.
Just for a change of subject (well revert really).
New record of daily Covid cases in US, 108k and deaths definitely on the up.
Projected deaths having fallen recently back up. 400k by 1/2.
Trump will still own this until late Jan and it is only going in one direction.
New daily death reported record (Worldometer figures) of just over 9000, nearly 4000 of which were in Europe, where the UK reported the highest number.
Yes I guess I lied and I wasn't really changing the subject - still focusing on Trump really wasn't I.
For all the criticism of the USA numbers it is a case of throwing stones in a greenhouse on my part.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
He's right though. Tories *are* desperate for Trump to win.
That’s not true at all.
Most Tories want a Biden victory.
There is perhaps a cabal around Number 10 who perhaps crave a Trump win so they continue fighting their pathetic culture wars, but they are a tiny minority of nutters.
ATLANTA — The presidential race in Georgia appeared headed for a photo finish as former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. steadily gained ground on President Trump. The victor will be awarded 16 electoral votes.
NYT
90K left to count as of 10pm.
If there were only 30k left and Biden is 23k behind why is he favorite?
Strange
Currently the NYT says only 95% reported, which would imply 250k+ still to come.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
She's smart enough to be more calculating than that, I think. She'll run for a Senate seat first.
Capitol Hill politicians should be banned from running for President. They should all be drawn from the Gubernatorial group. People who actually have experience of running things and having to work with competing political forces in state legislatures.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
Nope. It gets him to 269 WITHOUT AZ.
Thanks for the correction.
What's happened to NE2 - it was showing for Biden yesterday, has it flipped?
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
306 was my forecast so I would love that.
Whose in the running to win the PB prediction competition? Certainly you are, but with the wrong mix of states I think?
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
He's right though. Tories *are* desperate for Trump to win.
That’s not true at all.
Most Tories want a Biden victory.
There is perhaps a cabal around Number 10 who perhaps crave a Trump win so they continue fighting their pathetic culture wars, but they are a tiny minority of nutters.
As a right-leaning voter (though very much on the fence right now when it comes to future support) I am very much hoping against a Trump reelection. He is not good for world politics and is an incredibly objectionable human being.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
Nope. It gets him to 269 WITHOUT AZ.
Thanks for the correction.
What's happened to NE2 - it was showing for Biden yesterday, has it flipped?
With NE2 and GA Biden would be on 270
Per Nate Silver, Biden has a 6.6% lead in Nebraska 2.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
IIUC the age restriction is about when you take office and she'd just squeak it.
You are all forgetting there is a Kennedy waiting in the wings, warming his throat.
There has to be a strong chance of Kamala being incumbent President in 2024. Indeed Biden has stated that he is a bridge to a new generation.
I was rather disappointed in Kamala in the Primaries, and campaigning doesn't seem her strong suit, but it would be interesting to see how she functions in office.
Attempts by the Republicans to depict her as a "Woke" radical are clearly nonsense. If she wasn't Black and female she would be seen as an unremarkable centrist.
In fairness to that depiction she also tried to run further to the left during the primaries, then got scared and backed off, losing both left and centre in the process. I'd say she's *careerist* more than centrist. But whatever she is, she probably wouldn't have a good general election if the Dems were unwise enough to nominate her.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
No, in this context she'd also be cockblocking KLOBUCHAR and Tammy Duckworth and a couple of other more electable lady Democrats.
So even women can be cockblocked?
I'd be grateful for clarity about this, because I don't want to make a faux pas when I am using this word.
Yes, but to avoid embarassment be careful not to use the term in this way outside the context of political science or psephology.
Hmm. I'm still not sure whether I want to use it at all. The word "blocked" seems to serve much the same purpose, without having to worry about the genders of the people involved, or other sensibilities.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
Nope. It gets him to 269 WITHOUT AZ.
Thanks for the correction.
What's happened to NE2 - it was showing for Biden yesterday, has it flipped?
With NE2 and GA Biden would be on 270
Per Nate Silver, Biden has a 6.6% lead in Nebraska 2.
But possibly Trump is claiming it as a win.
I think NE2 is Biden's, NYT calling it.
Has Trump claimed NY, '...because I'm a HUGE player in New York', yet?
This is reminiscent of the moment in his final days when Richard Nixon asked 'all the President's men' to kneel in the Oval Office and pray to Almighty God.
I bet Kissinger would have just loved that.
Indeed!
An extraordinary finale to an extraordinary presidency, which is how we will come to view 'that' speech by Donald Trump.
I was more inclined to resist viewing that speech at all.
I'm sure that is the course of wisdom in this instance.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
No, in this context she'd also be cockblocking KLOBUCHAR and Tammy Duckworth and a couple of other more electable lady Democrats.
So even women can be cockblocked?
I'd be grateful for clarity about this, because I don't want to make a faux pas when I am using this word.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
Nope. It gets him to 269 WITHOUT AZ.
Thanks for the correction.
What's happened to NE2 - it was showing for Biden yesterday, has it flipped?
This is reminiscent of the moment in his final days when Richard Nixon asked 'all the President's men' to kneel in the Oval Office and pray to Almighty God.
I bet Kissinger would have just loved that.
Indeed!
An extraordinary finale to an extraordinary presidency, which is how we will come to view 'that' speech by Donald Trump.
A quick thought on Nevada. Is it possible that Fox News might be leaning into them heavily not to release their votes? Because if Nevada declares for Biden the Fox will have to declare for Trump. Because they’ve called Arizona. This could be very embarrassing for them if Arizona call is shown to be premature.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
Nope. It gets him to 269 WITHOUT AZ.
Thanks for the correction.
What's happened to NE2 - it was showing for Biden yesterday, has it flipped?
With NE2 and GA Biden would be on 270
Per Nate Silver, Biden has a 6.6% lead in Nebraska 2.
But possibly Trump is claiming it as a win.
I think NE2 is Biden's, NYT calling it.
Has Trump claimed NY, '...because I'm a HUGE player in New York', yet?
I believe he did claim victory in New York and several other states, but because one of them was Narnia his advisers managed to restrain him before he could hit "Enter".
Their case numbers look to still be rising, or at least can't see much of a decline from their firebreak... and they have about as many people in hospital as at the peak back in April...
Maybe I'm missing something - but planning to reopen on 9th November doesn't seem wise...
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
306 was my forecast so I would love that.
Whose in the running to win the PB prediction competition? Certainly you are, but with the wrong mix of states I think?
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
Yes he will get either 290 or 306.
This talk of nail biting is transitory. In 48 hours we will be talking on here about how it was all comfortable in the end.
He's winning Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and probably Arizona.
Anyone thinking it's going to be a tie or similar is deluded.
The method of vote counting has had a big impact on how this election will be viewed. In "normal" circumstances the mid-west states would have been called at 10-11pm on the night and we would have bene talking about a comfortable albeit slightly sub-par victory for Biden that was never really in doubt.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
Nope. It gets him to 269 WITHOUT AZ.
Thanks for the correction.
What's happened to NE2 - it was showing for Biden yesterday, has it flipped?
With NE2 and GA Biden would be on 270
Nope. 269.
Yes, apols. I am missing the point that MI is Biden's and NV and AZ are still counting.
You are right, though fortunately Trump is not going to win all of NV, AZ, PA and NC.
A quick thought on Nevada. Is it possible that Fox News might be leaning into them heavily not to release their votes? Because if Nevada declares for Biden the Fox will have to declare for Trump. Because they’ve called Arizona. This could be very embarrassing for them if Arizona call is shown to be premature.
Nate Silver was implying something along these lines. If NV calls Biden then AP and Fox have to call the election.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
She was born October 13, 1989, so she'd be 35 by polling day. Does that not count ?
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
Not without a law change extending the length of this Parliament. Next election currently set as May 2024.
Repealing the FTPA was in the Conservative manifesto.
Not guaranteed to happen by all means. The government is current rather busy after all, but there is plenty of time and a large, largely compliant, majority.
I know that but repealing the FTPA doesn't automatically ensure an extension to this Parliament it depends upon how the Act is written.
The Lords may try inserting an amendment for instance saying that it applies after this Parliament and that this next election must still be no later than May 2024.
Not saying it will happen but it requires the law changing still.
The biggest problem with the repeal of the FTPA, is how to deal with the Royal Perogative and the Septennial Acts that the FTPA repealed. It’s legally impossible to revert to the status quo ante so the drafters of the new legislation are going to have to find a new route to those powers, primarily the role of the PM in being able to call an election at any time on his or her preferred date.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
Nope. It gets him to 269 WITHOUT AZ.
Thanks for the correction.
What's happened to NE2 - it was showing for Biden yesterday, has it flipped?
With NE2 and GA Biden would be on 270
Decision Desk has the figures, just below and to the right of Florida on the map.
Their case numbers look to still be rising, or at least can't see much of a decline from their firebreak... and they have about as many people in hospital as at the peak back in April...
Maybe I'm missing something - but planning to reopen on 9th November doesn't seem wise...
They’ve got a big problem and are also in danger of seriously undermining Starmer’s position on England.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
She was born October 13, 1989, so she'd be 35 by polling day. Does that not count ?
I know. I’m wrong. I thought the age limit was 40! Apologies.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
No, in this context she'd also be cockblocking KLOBUCHAR and Tammy Duckworth and a couple of other more electable lady Democrats.
So even women can be cockblocked?
I'd be grateful for clarity about this, because I don't want to make a faux pas when I am using this word.
Can we find a better expression? Cockblocking does have a whiff of misogyny about it. The term seems to imply the right to sexually penetrate, rather than a consensual act.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
Nope. It gets him to 269 WITHOUT AZ.
Thanks for the correction.
What's happened to NE2 - it was showing for Biden yesterday, has it flipped?
With NE2 and GA Biden would be on 270
Nope. 269.
You're saying that there can be a tie if Biden has won NE2?
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
She's smart enough to be more calculating than that, I think. She'll run for a Senate seat first.
Capitol Hill politicians should be banned from running for President. They should all be drawn from the Gubernatorial group. People who actually have experience of running things and having to work with competing political forces in state legislatures.
ATLANTA — The presidential race in Georgia appeared headed for a photo finish as former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. steadily gained ground on President Trump. The victor will be awarded 16 electoral votes.
NYT
90K left to count as of 10pm.
If there were only 30k left and Biden is 23k behind why is he favorite?
Strange
There’s more than 30k left...
One of the reasons credibility is given to these ballot fixing stories is that provisional ballot totals get reported without emphasising the provisional qualification, and get treated as though they have some kind of official status.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
She's smart enough to be more calculating than that, I think. She'll run for a Senate seat first.
Capitol Hill politicians should be banned from running for President. They should all be drawn from the Gubernatorial group. People who actually have experience of running things and having to work with competing political forces in state legislatures.
Even sensible constitutional amendments have very little chance of being implemented. One as eccentric as that, none.
A quick thought on Nevada. Is it possible that Fox News might be leaning into them heavily not to release their votes? Because if Nevada declares for Biden the Fox will have to declare for Trump. Because they’ve called Arizona. This could be very embarrassing for them if Arizona call is shown to be premature.
A genuine mistake on calling Arizona too early could become a large component of the stolen election myth.
If Trump takes the lead in Arizona before Biden catches up in PA or GA, then Trump would be ahead on the basis of current counts on 285.
He wouldn't be able to freeze the counts at that point would he?
A quick thought on Nevada. Is it possible that Fox News might be leaning into them heavily not to release their votes? Because if Nevada declares for Biden the Fox will have to declare for Trump. Because they’ve called Arizona. This could be very embarrassing for them if Arizona call is shown to be premature.
A genuine mistake on calling Arizona too early could become a large component of the stolen election myth.
If Trump takes the lead in Arizona before Biden catches up in PA or GA, then Trump would be ahead on the basis of current counts on 285.
He wouldn't be able to freeze the counts at that point would he?
lol
It's a bit sad to see the way right-leaners are desperately trying to cling on to some normalcy.
Fox calling Arizona was a mistake. Biden's lead has fallen from 130,000, there. That said, I'm sure he's carried Pennsylvania, so he has won.
Well it won’t be a mistake if they are proved right ;-)
I think the point is that there was (and still is) too much uncertainty to be making a call at that point. Of course, Fox may end up being proven right anyway.
It is a big deal if the Dems win GA. Their first presidential win in a properly Southern state since 1996.
Yes, the iconic significance of winning Georgia is huge. It would need a bunch of late afternoon newspaper columns to be rewritten for a start.
The speed with which States can change allegiance in the US is striking. Bill Clinton carried West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky, which would seem absurd now.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
It is a big deal if the Dems win GA. Their first presidential win in a properly Southern state since 1996.
Yes, the iconic significance of winning Georgia is huge. It would need a bunch of late afternoon newspaper columns to be rewritten for a start.
The speed with which States can change allegiance in the US is striking. Bill Clinton carried West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky, which would seem absurd now.
Yes, and the GOP used to regularly win California until 1992.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
It was a smart move, and why it's taken someone this long to so it I don't know,, when the average gamer is in their 30s so even politicians will know about games now.
A quick thought on Nevada. Is it possible that Fox News might be leaning into them heavily not to release their votes? Because if Nevada declares for Biden the Fox will have to declare for Trump. Because they’ve called Arizona. This could be very embarrassing for them if Arizona call is shown to be premature.
A genuine mistake on calling Arizona too early could become a large component of the stolen election myth.
If Trump takes the lead in Arizona before Biden catches up in PA or GA, then Trump would be ahead on the basis of current counts on 285.
He wouldn't be able to freeze the counts at that point would he?
lol
It's a bit sad to see the way right-leaners are desperately trying to cling on to some normalcy.
It's gone folks. The Trump era is over.
I'm not a right-leaner.
I lack the consistent over-confidence that you exhibit, though. Perhaps I take my catastrophising too far at times, but I'm certainly of the Left.
Their case numbers look to still be rising, or at least can't see much of a decline from their firebreak... and they have about as many people in hospital as at the peak back in April...
Maybe I'm missing something - but planning to reopen on 9th November doesn't seem wise...
They’ve got a big problem and are also in danger of seriously undermining Starmer’s position on England.
The most probable outcome is that Wales follows the England restrictions* - particularly since the furlough money is now there.
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
No, in this context she'd also be cockblocking KLOBUCHAR and Tammy Duckworth and a couple of other more electable lady Democrats.
So even women can be cockblocked?
I'd be grateful for clarity about this, because I don't want to make a faux pas when I am using this word.
Can we find a better expression? Cockblocking does have a whiff of misogyny about it. The term seems to imply the right to sexually penetrate, rather than a consensual act.
When a person *governs* another person that is not a consensual act.
It is a big deal if the Dems win GA. Their first presidential win in a properly Southern state since 1996.
Yes, the iconic significance of winning Georgia is huge. It would need a bunch of late afternoon newspaper columns to be rewritten for a start.
The speed with which States can change allegiance in the US is striking. Bill Clinton carried West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky, which would seem absurd now.
Yes, and the GOP used to regularly win California until 1992.
This was what NBC were talking about wrf to Georgia. Cobb County which is still to report was Newt Gingrich's birthplace. It's switched 20% in the last 8 years.
It means that the two run-offs, assuming Perdue slips below 50% are not a shoo-in for the GOP. I would favour them in both but that's by no means certain, especially with Trump leaving office.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
Nope. It gets him to 269 WITHOUT AZ.
Thanks for the correction.
What's happened to NE2 - it was showing for Biden yesterday, has it flipped?
With NE2 and GA Biden would be on 270
Nope. 269.
You're saying that there can be a tie if Biden has won NE2?
Hmm. I think you're right. I had thought there was no route to a tie if Biden had taken NE2.
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
As I said the other day if in another universe the Rust Belt had been declared on the night and the Southern states the following day we would have gone to bed happy in the knowledge of a landslide (anticipating Texas and Florida to be added to the Biden total).
A quick thought on Nevada. Is it possible that Fox News might be leaning into them heavily not to release their votes? Because if Nevada declares for Biden the Fox will have to declare for Trump. Because they’ve called Arizona. This could be very embarrassing for them if Arizona call is shown to be premature.
A genuine mistake on calling Arizona too early could become a large component of the stolen election myth.
If Trump takes the lead in Arizona before Biden catches up in PA or GA, then Trump would be ahead on the basis of current counts on 285.
He wouldn't be able to freeze the counts at that point would he?
lol
It's a bit sad to see the way right-leaners are desperately trying to cling on to some normalcy.
It's gone folks. The Trump era is over.
I'm not a right-leaner.
I lack the consistent over-confidence that you exhibit, though. Perhaps I take my catastrophising too far at times, but I'm certainly of the Left.
It is a big deal if the Dems win GA. Their first presidential win in a properly Southern state since 1996.
Yes, the iconic significance of winning Georgia is huge. It would need a bunch of late afternoon newspaper columns to be rewritten for a start.
The speed with which States can change allegiance in the US is striking. Bill Clinton carried West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky, which would seem absurd now.
Yes, and the GOP used to regularly win California until 1992.
Far more change than we see, with blue shires and red cities, unchanged for decades.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Rory could do it.
AOC is a huge Dem asset.
She's their best shot for 2024, assuming Biden wins this time. Biden would have a hard time motivating his base unless Trump obliges with another run, and Kamala is too weak a candidate to win against a capable Republican but not weak enough to lose the primary to a better candidate on the centre-left.
Slight flaw in your plan.
She won’t be old enough to run for president!
IIUC the age restriction is about when you take office and she'd just squeak it.
You are all forgetting there is a Kennedy waiting in the wings, warming his throat.
There has to be a strong chance of Kamala being incumbent President in 2024. Indeed Biden has stated that he is a bridge to a new generation.
I was rather disappointed in Kamala in the Primaries, and campaigning doesn't seem her strong suit, but it would be interesting to see how she functions in office.
Attempts by the Republicans to depict her as a "Woke" radical are clearly nonsense. If she wasn't Black and female she would be seen as an unremarkable centrist.
It's a good point. And when was a VP pick ever really viewed as a strong candidate for next President, rather than a minor electoral advantage or disadvantage for the candidate themselves ? (With the negative exception of Cheney, of course.)
Even someone like LBJ, who was a remarkable consequential President (and arguably a great one), and won an electoral landslide in his own right, wasn't really regarded as a serious contender when he was picked. Truman similarly wasn't thought much of when picked for VP.
That's not to say that Harris won't prove a weak candidate; rather that it's too early to tell.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
The Democrats did really well in the Senate in 2012, but fell short this time around.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
Nope. It gets him to 269 WITHOUT AZ.
And without Nevada. 269 is not going to happen
No indeed. This is a footnote discussion whilst we wile away the time. Biden is going to sail past 270.
It is a big deal if the Dems win GA. Their first presidential win in a properly Southern state since 1996.
Yes, the iconic significance of winning Georgia is huge. It would need a bunch of late afternoon newspaper columns to be rewritten for a start.
The speed with which States can change allegiance in the US is striking. Bill Clinton carried West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky, which would seem absurd now.
Yes, and the GOP used to regularly win California until 1992.
Bill Clinton came from that region so it's not that surprising - being local can often add 5-10% to your vote (after all he knows the area and may send federal money that way)/
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
Yes, either he will pardon himself or do a resignation, followed by a Pence pardon.
The simplest would be ignore him federally. New York is going after Trump in n number of ways already, for one.
Biden could simply shrug his shoulders and say that is a States Rights matter.....
With Nixon - it is indicative of a different age, that no-one raised (as far as I am aware) the possibility of a non-federal prosecution.
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
Biden can't pardon Trump from State level charges (only Federal ones) - and it is at the State level that Trump will have real problems
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
As I said the other day if in another universe the Rust Belt had been declared on the night and the Southern states the following day we would have gone to bed happy in the knowledge of a landslide (anticipating Texas and Florida to be added to the Biden total).
I don't think you would expect a landslide. The swings in the rustbelt States were not big. You'd expect Texas to be a hold, and Florida to be very tight.
My instinct says it will be a strong showing for the GOP - it is absolutely classic for Dem voters to stay at home in mid terms. But...
As the wise sage @HYUFD says "Trump will not be on the ballot". Maybe that will matter in this mid-term. If you believe Trump has forged a unique coalition of voters then without Trump what happens to that coalition?
I think on balance it will be a horror show for the Dems but I do have an inkling of doubt now.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
As I said the other day if in another universe the Rust Belt had been declared on the night and the Southern states the following day we would have gone to bed happy in the knowledge of a landslide (anticipating Texas and Florida to be added to the Biden total).
I don't think you would expect a landslide. The swings in the rustbelt States were not big. You'd expect Texas to be a hold, and Florida to be very tight.
Agreed. It’s not a landslide. It’s going to turn out to be an win on the slim side but OK. It’s comparative with other slim wins like Kennedy’s in 1960 or Nixon’s in 1972.
Edit: someone might have already corrected me but I meant 68 not 72. 72 was the blowout!
And re. this War Game scenario that the Mail want, I don't think that's going to be the way of it. America is about to change tack. Joe Biden is going to be conciliar and the GOP will be altering once they've stuck the knife into Trump.
I think we may return to some proper politics: where the President and Congress have to work off each other to get things done. Yes, if the GOP control the Senate by 1 or 2 seats (likely) they will sometimes stymie the President but a lot of the time I think pragmatism will take over. Biden is not Trump. He will be much more conciliar and there will be big attempts to pull the nation together especially through the pandemic.
I might myself be accused of wishful thinking, but that's my reading of it. We're going to see a big change in how politics looks and sounds in the US.
Cant really see that until they ditch Pelosi
Yes, a return to conciliatory politics requires all the hyper-partisans on both sides to stand aside. Pelosi and McConnell are both part of the problem and feed off each other.
The US needs a good clear out of its ageing politicians. If it gets lucky this will be the last of the Zimmerframe elections for a while.
The biggest problem with Biden winning is it means that Harris will cockblock Newsome from 2024.
I am starting to feel very old.
Wikipedia: "Cockblock (or cock block) is a slang term for an action, intentional or not, that prevents someone from having sex. Such behavior is said to be motivated by jealousy or competitiveness, although it is sometimes accidental or inadvertent."
Does it now apply to preventing someone from running for Presient too?
It refers to a woman having the temerity to run for high office, denying a man his rightful position. (Checks calendar, yes this is the twenty first century).
No, in this context she'd also be cockblocking KLOBUCHAR and Tammy Duckworth and a couple of other more electable lady Democrats.
So even women can be cockblocked?
I'd be grateful for clarity about this, because I don't want to make a faux pas when I am using this word.
Can we find a better expression? Cockblocking does have a whiff of misogyny about it. The term seems to imply the right to sexually penetrate, rather than a consensual act.
The alternative using the female anatomical expression sounds even ruder
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
Ignoring your “sore winner” snipe at Remainers, the “join EFTA (or something that looks very much like EFTA)” campaign effectively starts 1 January.
However it will take place in think tanks and the bowels of Whitehall rather than being an overtly public campaign.
By 2024 it will be considered simple common sense. I don’t expect “Brexit” to dominate those elections.
Expect whatever deal is done to have another decision to make about six months to a year after the 2024 election, purely to make it an election issue.
No either to 269 or lower if you don’t put AZ in the Dem column. But highly highly unlikely Trump able to build a route through remaining states.
Also if the Dems win AZ and NV but not PA it helps to avoid the “faithless elector” scenario of 270/268 (which thank goodness because we don’t need to read 20 articles a day on it).
Nope. It gets him to 269 WITHOUT AZ.
And without Nevada. 269 is not going to happen
No indeed. This is a footnote discussion whilst we wile away the time. Biden is going to sail past 270.
We don't know yet. There's still a 10% chance Trump will win. Sorry to be a party pooper.
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
Can Trump pardon himself (or President Pence pardon Trump) ahead of a conviction? Besides which, the State Justices can chase him without fear of hinderance.
He hasn't lost yet, but should that come to pass Biden should not intervene and let justice run its course. Trump wouldn't thank Biden for clemency, he would take it before throwing the gesture back at him.
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
A pardon would infuriate his base, especially since Trump couldn't be trusted to stop demagoguing. I think he does what he says he'll do and leaves it to the DOJ.
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
Biden can't pardon Trump from State level charges (only Federal ones) - and it is at the State level that Trump will have real problems
No reason for Biden to pardon Trump.
He can however say that he does not want the DoJ to be weaponised like Trump attempted to do and that he will not interfere in the judicial process. If the states or FBI or anyone else bring charges without his involvement then that is justice, if they don't then that is too. He shouldn't be involved.
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
Biden can't pardon Trump from State level charges (only Federal ones) - and it is at the State level that Trump will have real problems
No reason for Biden to pardon Trump.
He can however say that he does not want the DoJ to be weaponised like Trump attempted to do and that he will not interfere in the judicial process. If the states or FBI or anyone else bring charges without his involvement then that is justice, if they don't then that is too. He shouldn't be involved.
That's the sensible course. Stay as far away as possible.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
The Republican Party is three different parties, though, held together by a fear of the Democratic agenda. There are religious Conservatives whose biggest concern is abortion. There's the protectionist / isolationists, and there are the people who want a low regulation, low tax economy.
If Tom Cotton takes the lead in 2024 (and he may well do), then it's the protectionist / isolationist wing that take the Presidency (I'm pencilling 2024 as a Republican gain). If it's Marco Rubio, Ducey or Walker, then it's the low regulation guys (who are pretty free trade led). And if it's a Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee figure (although probably not one of those guys), then it's the Religious Conservatives.
I don't think it's clear which faction has the lead yet.
And if the Supreme Court defangs Roe vs Wade, then can the Religious Conservatives hold together? If abortion were to become a state issue, it might fundamentally change American politics.
Then there's Obamacare. The low regulation / low tax guys hate it. But most of the protectionist / isolationists like it, if not the name.
In other words, we don't know what the Republican Party will choose to be. Because those three factions are only really united by a common enemy. (Not that the Dems are any better.)
And is it any different with the Dems ? They are just as factional and united only by hating the Reps.
Biden is about to become president and frankly his only platform was he isnt Trump. I havent the faintest idea what policies he has ( probably none ) except he's not Donald.
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
We will see if Biden is more conciliatory. Pretty much every modern President who's been forced to work across the aisle (Clinton, Bush and Obama) has been better for it, because it forced pragmatism over intellectual purity. I think he will. But he'll also be a one term President, because he's not the youngest of chickens, and this isn't exactly the best of times to take over.
Trump certainly enjoys upsetting the apple cast. But in reality while he has given a few people a scare he jasnt fundamentally changed the system. It has survived him.
If you believed that before today, that's one thing.
But if you still believe that today, with the tweeting of fake videos of Trump ballots being burnt, then you are a fool or a knave.
So youre forecasting Trump for president then ?
That hes not successfully manages relection, it seems, doesn't mean he hasn't attempted shady things or that the system may not have been damaged. That's like saying firing a gun into someone isn't a crime if they live.
One immediate problem for President Biden will be what to do about the dubious legal behaviour of one Donald J. Trump. Does he do a Gerald Ford and issue a pardon in the name of unity? Or will the left push him into setting the full might of the DOJ on Trump and his family?
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
Just leave it to the various state authorities. Which sidesteps both of the above problems.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Comments
An extraordinary finale to an extraordinary presidency, which is how we will come to view 'that' speech by Donald Trump.
However it will take place in think tanks and the bowels of Whitehall rather than being an overtly public campaign.
By 2024 it will be considered simple common sense. I don’t expect “Brexit” to dominate those elections.
For all the criticism of the USA numbers it is a case of throwing stones in a greenhouse on my part.
1200 dead in the USA yesterday.
Most Tories want a Biden victory.
There is perhaps a cabal around Number 10 who perhaps crave a Trump win so they continue fighting their pathetic culture wars, but they are a tiny minority of nutters.
With NE2 and GA Biden would be on 270
But possibly Trump is claiming it as a win.
Has Trump claimed NY, '...because I'm a HUGE player in New York', yet?
I'm sure that is the course of wisdom in this instance.
https://uk.video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&p=parker+pen+ad+with+penelope+keith#id=2&vid=3a288a0ebe2e992b8a134f578e79691b&action=click
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
Their case numbers look to still be rising, or at least can't see much of a decline from their firebreak... and they have about as many people in hospital as at the peak back in April...
Maybe I'm missing something - but planning to reopen on 9th November doesn't seem wise...
He is now at 253.
GA gets him to 269.
He then needs any state remaining to win.
You are right, though fortunately Trump is not going to win all of NV, AZ, PA and NC.
Does that not count ?
https://results.decisiondeskhq.com
Apologies.
A decision for Primary voters surely?
Biden will win Georgia by c. 5,000 to 7,500 votes. Very close. Might be even closer than that but Biden is favourite. Just.
Arizona looks safe for Biden now. Good counties still to report.
Pennsylvania is definitely Biden. Won't even be that close. 100,000 to 200,000 win.
If Trump takes the lead in Arizona before Biden catches up in PA or GA, then Trump would be ahead on the basis of current counts on 285.
He wouldn't be able to freeze the counts at that point would he?
It's a bit sad to see the way right-leaners are desperately trying to cling on to some normalcy.
It's gone folks. The Trump era is over.
I lack the consistent over-confidence that you exhibit, though. Perhaps I take my catastrophising too far at times, but I'm certainly of the Left.
*Calling them a lockdown seems ridiculous
It means that the two run-offs, assuming Perdue slips below 50% are not a shoo-in for the GOP. I would favour them in both but that's by no means certain, especially with Trump leaving office.
Trump may also try to pardon himself before he leaves office.
And when was a VP pick ever really viewed as a strong candidate for next President, rather than a minor electoral advantage or disadvantage for the candidate themselves ?
(With the negative exception of Cheney, of course.)
Even someone like LBJ, who was a remarkable consequential President (and arguably a great one), and won an electoral landslide in his own right, wasn't really regarded as a serious contender when he was picked.
Truman similarly wasn't thought much of when picked for VP.
That's not to say that Harris won't prove a weak candidate; rather that it's too early to tell.
The simplest would be ignore him federally. New York is going after Trump in n number of ways already, for one.
Biden could simply shrug his shoulders and say that is a States Rights matter.....
With Nixon - it is indicative of a different age, that no-one raised (as far as I am aware) the possibility of a non-federal prosecution.
My instinct says it will be a strong showing for the GOP - it is absolutely classic for Dem voters to stay at home in mid terms. But...
As the wise sage @HYUFD says "Trump will not be on the ballot". Maybe that will matter in this mid-term. If you believe Trump has forged a unique coalition of voters then without Trump what happens to that coalition?
I think on balance it will be a horror show for the Dems but I do have an inkling of doubt now.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324215065063550976?s=20
Ralston clearly thinks Biden is going to be home and dry. Results from 9:00 PST (17:00 GMT).
I do find it amazing that the US is not set up to count and report 27/7 in the battleground states.
Edit: someone might have already corrected me but I meant 68 not 72. 72 was the blowout!
He hasn't lost yet, but should that come to pass Biden should not intervene and let justice run its course. Trump wouldn't thank Biden for clemency, he would take it before throwing the gesture back at him.
He can however say that he does not want the DoJ to be weaponised like Trump attempted to do and that he will not interfere in the judicial process. If the states or FBI or anyone else bring charges without his involvement then that is justice, if they don't then that is too. He shouldn't be involved.
Arizona
Nevada
Colorado
FLorda
Georgia
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Ohio
Iowa
The majority of those states are red incumbents.
Which sidesteps both of the above problems.
Just went on to twitter.com to see what crap the orange idiot is spouting and... zilch.
Now it could be because I am a twitter incompetent but normally that approach lets me find his latest nonsense.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/us2020/results
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).