The Old GOP, dominated by WASPs from New England is long gone, and it had gone thirty years ago.
As Alanbrooke says, parties are always adding to, and losing voters from, their coalitions. Georgia is now a swing State, Virginia and Colorado are lost for good, but Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are now solid Red.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
Zzzzzzzzzzzz.
Get over yourself man.
LOL
this time yesterday you were shitting yourself at the result, unable to comprehend why the Dems massively underdelivered.
I think the counting of votes in the U.K. would be A LOT slower if there was the same level of legal scrutiny as there is in the US. Basically the U.K. proceeds on the basis that everything is above board, and there is no potential partisanship in the electoral process (so that even if errors are made they are “equal opportunity” and could just as easily favour either side).
It would all have to change if one or other party actually started making serious attempts at corrupting the voting process. And I doubt the system could cope that well with it. It seems to me that the US system is far more advanced and transparent in order to combat potential fraud. But that is because it needs to me.
The U.K. system is designed to be above board, that’s the difference. There’s national regulations and a national oversight body, the mechanics of the election are run by career civil servants rather than elected officials, and results are delivered swiftly with parties observing.
In the USA, you have every state governor and city mayor micromanaging the actual election process, arguing about opening hours and placement of polling stations, rules on absentee and postal ballots, and voter identification - often on a nakedly partisan basis to reduce the turnout of their opponents’ voters.
There seem to me to be equal problems in the USA Electoral Area process.
And it seems to be everywhere, especially the Senate. Here there are various legal duties, and a practise of reflecting other political boundaries - eg my MP's Constituency is close to being the same as the local Council District.
The US House seat boundary setting is so blantantly partisan they even have a word for it, named after Massachusetts governor Elmbridge Gerry, as far back as 1812 - there’s been more than a 200 year history of it! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering
The Old GOP, dominated by WASPs from New England is long gone, and it had gone thirty years ago.
As Alanbrooke says, parties are always adding to, and losing voters from, their coalitions. Georgia is now a swing State, Virginia and Colorado are lost for good, but Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are now solid Red.
In the same way the Dems struggles without Obama, can the GOP do well without Trump? He has a certain something. A charisma and connection that is rare, Trump wannabes could come up very short.
For all of HYUFD's praise of Trump, it's not easy to lose as incumbent President. It's only happened three times before today.
Mmmm, there are a lot of Republicans - and not Trump lovers - who believe there are shenanigans going on around VBM.
As the NYT put it "Biden’s narrow win in Michigan was the product of extremely high turnout in Detroit, where an underwhelming performance with Black voters in 2016 helped doom Hillary Clinton" Which is funny because Wayne County, up until the last few days, had been running below the state average for mail-in ballots requested.
From what I hear, the Trump campaign is already using the 130K - zero mail in ballots as a piece of evidence that the election was rigged.
Also bear in mind the Michigan Supreme Court is Republican-dominated.
Dont known if you heard but there was an election recently and the GOP lost it's majority on the Michigan Supreme Court.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
Zzzzzzzzzzzz.
Get over yourself man.
LOL
this time yesterday you were shitting yourself at the result, unable to comprehend why the Dems massively underdelivered.
Against Trump.
Yes that one.
The polls being wrong is not the same as Biden under-delivering.
What we do know is that many Tories inside and outside the government are rooting for a President who is currently seeking to prevent votes being counted and whose gun-toting supporters are engaged are intimidating election officials as they try to do their jobs. No amount of zzzzzzzing changes that.
The Old GOP, dominated by WASPs from New England is long gone, and it had gone thirty years ago.
As Alanbrooke says, parties are always adding to, and losing voters from, their coalitions. Georgia is now a swing State, Virginia and Colorado are lost for good, but Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are now solid Red.
Although having said that you still get Republicans or Democrats winning things like Gubernatorial or even Senate races in the most unlikely places. So there’s often at least the potential for candidates to emerge who represent dramatic shifts in Party outlook.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
The Republican Party is three different parties, though, held together by a fear of the Democratic agenda. There are religious Conservatives whose biggest concern is abortion. There's the protectionist / isolationists, and there are the people who want a low regulation, low tax economy.
If Tom Cotton takes the lead in 2024 (and he may well do), then it's the protectionist / isolationist wing that take the Presidency (I'm pencilling 2024 as a Republican gain). If it's Marco Rubio, Ducey or Walker, then it's the low regulation guys (who are pretty free trade led). And if it's a Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee figure (although probably not one of those guys), then it's the Religious Conservatives.
I don't think it's clear which faction has the lead yet.
And if the Supreme Court defangs Roe vs Wade, then can the Religious Conservatives hold together? If abortion were to become a state issue, it might fundamentally change American politics.
Then there's Obamacare. The low regulation / low tax guys hate it. But most of the protectionist / isolationists like it, if not the name.
In other words, we don't know what the Republican Party will choose to be. Because those three factions are only really united by a common enemy. (Not that the Dems are any better.)
And is it any different with the Dems ? They are just as factional and united only by hating the Reps.
Biden is about to become president and frankly his only platform was he isnt Trump. I havent the faintest idea what policies he has ( probably none ) except he's not Donald.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
The Republican Party is three different parties, though, held together by a fear of the Democratic agenda. There are religious Conservatives whose biggest concern is abortion. There's the protectionist / isolationists, and there are the people who want a low regulation, low tax economy.
If Tom Cotton takes the lead in 2024 (and he may well do), then it's the protectionist / isolationist wing that take the Presidency (I'm pencilling 2024 as a Republican gain). If it's Marco Rubio, Ducey or Walker, then it's the low regulation guys (who are pretty free trade led). And if it's a Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee figure (although probably not one of those guys), then it's the Religious Conservatives.
I don't think it's clear which faction has the lead yet.
And if the Supreme Court defangs Roe vs Wade, then can the Religious Conservatives hold together? If abortion were to become a state issue, it might fundamentally change American politics.
Then there's Obamacare. The low regulation / low tax guys hate it. But most of the protectionist / isolationists like it, if not the name.
In other words, we don't know what the Republican Party will choose to be. Because those three factions are only really united by a common enemy. (Not that the Dems are any better.)
And is it any different with the Dems ? They are just as factional and united only by hating the Reps.
Biden is about to become president and frankly his only platform was he isnt Trump. I havent the faintest idea what policies he has ( probably none ) except he's not Donald.
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
We will see if Biden is more conciliatory. Pretty much every modern President who's been forced to work across the aisle (Clinton, Bush and Obama) has been better for it, because it forced pragmatism over intellectual purity. I think he will. But he'll also be a one term President, because he's not the youngest of chickens, and this isn't exactly the best of times to take over.
The Old GOP, dominated by WASPs from New England is long gone, and it had gone thirty years ago.
As Alanbrooke says, parties are always adding to, and losing voters from, their coalitions. Georgia is now a swing State, Virginia and Colorado are lost for good, but Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are now solid Red.
Although having said that you still get Republicans or Democrats winning things like Gubernatorial or even Senate races in the most unlikely places. So there’s often at least the potential for candidates to emerge who represent dramatic shifts in Party outlook.
Yes, I think Governors' races are the ones where a candidate for the other party is most likely to win in enemy territory, so to speak.
Philadelphia just churned out a batch where he received zero votes !
Difficult to believe if true.
If I told you a batch of Liverpool Walton postals, in an election where most Con voters had voted on the day and most Lab voters had went postal, has no Conservative votes in it you wouldn't find that weird.
Well that's been a roller-coaster of a market in the last 24 hours, both candidates priced at 4 at one point or another.
And like a complete mug I just sat here thinking it was interesting that Biden was drifting badly when it had been forecast that Trump would lead in on-the-day voting. I did wise up in time to get a few quid on at around 3 on his way back down but this was a massive missed opportunity. I blame sleep deprivation but really it was terminal stupidity and lack of planning.
I don't think many people were immune. Certainly not me. To summarise yesterday
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
Surely Boris has done all those things? Elected by people who convinced themselves that while Boris might be AIDS, Jeremy Corbyn was, well, I don't know, ask @Foxy for a worse disease.
I suspect the culture warriors will be very disappointed by a Biden presidency.
Hard to see who won't be disappointed by a Biden presidency, "But at least he's not Trump" will wear thin after about a fortnight. Especially with the near half of the country who never wanted him in the first place - and are inclinded to see him as the Election Thief in Chief.
Recent reports have been pretty consistently about 3:1- but caution needed as some will come from less Biden friendly counties.
Even in GOP counties mail n ballots favour Biden.
If only someone had done extensive analysis studying the reported mail in ballot splits on a county by county basis and then published that advice on this very website!
It is really incredible how little movement there was on the decision desk results page yesterday. Over about 24 hours the US have managed to count 3 or 4m votes. Absolutely pathetic. 2 states were called, not because the counting was completely over of course, but because the result was pretty certain. It's really pathetic.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
The GOP of McConnell will be ascendant. That's not a particularly bipartisan GOP to put it mildly.
Then, when the Primaries happen for the midterms we see how much further QAnon, or the next evolution of extremism, has spread.
That's the question for me. Where goes QAnon now. It will either fizzle out in 6 months or 2022 will see a raft of QAnon candidates for Congress and local races.
I suspect the culture warriors will be very disappointed by a Biden presidency.
Because Biden will want to distance himself from those who call millions of swing voters racist, and have spent the summer smashing up their own cities?
The Old GOP, dominated by WASPs from New England is long gone, and it had gone thirty years ago.
As Alanbrooke says, parties are always adding to, and losing voters from, their coalitions. Georgia is now a swing State, Virginia and Colorado are lost for good, but Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are now solid Red.
In the same way the Dems struggles without Obama, can the GOP do well without Trump? He has a certain something. A charisma and connection that is rare, Trump wannabes could come up very short.
Trump is a boorish, selfish narcissist, unable to distinguish between his own interest and the country's interest.
However he has charisma and star quality, honed by years of reality TV. That blue collar rural Americans think he speaks for them, despite being a New York Real Estate hustler, serial adulterer, and unable to name a single Bible verse, is quite a phenomenon. He is the most successful con artist of all time, and one marker of his skill is leaving the conned wanting to be conned again.
His ostentatious greed and vulgarity are not an electoral problem with his voters, indeed Trump legitimises their own selfish behaviours. There need be no pretence of looking after fellow Americans if you are a Trump supporter.
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
Surely Boris has done all those things? Elected by people who convinced themselves that while Boris might be AIDS, Jeremy Corbyn was, well, I don't know, ask @Foxy for a worse disease.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
That’s true, it it also underlines one way in which the British system is superior. We count fast. It’s done and dusted by morning, before anyone can interfere. The US is slooooooow.
But can anyone imagine a British prime minister even trying to interfere? It's difficult to imagine even of Farage.
Farage would, no doubt about it. Boris would too if he thought it would save him. The key thing is they can’t, it’s too quick. You get a final result before the courts open or the mob wakes up. Politically it’s too late.
Maybe Boris if he could do it without anyone finding out.
If you add "without anyone finding out", then that would change the terms of reference to include a vast number of politicians.
If you could shag the person of your dreams "without anyone finding out", would you do it?
I'd hope the person of my dreams would at least be aware of it.
British democracy is seriously flawed, but I would take it over US democracy.
Indeed.
Imo France has the fairest/best electoral system for choosing the head of state.
Yes, the 2 stage election, weeks apart, is a fine system that minimises the need for tactical voting, and is even better than AV. The final two are clear, and the second stage allows a pause for thought. Do you really want Le Pen?
Eventually, the answer will be yes. Of course, one could argue that by the point that happens Le Pen won't be considered much of an extremist.
That said, they really weren't all that far off Le Pen v Melenchon in 2017, which would have been hilarious.
Which highlights the flaw in the run-off system. Let's say Le Pen and Melenchon were the least acceptable candidates for most voters - the run-off system could easily have meant that the second least acceptable candidate for most voters wins where there are several viable candidates in the first round. Preferential voting or approval voting avoids this and tends to find the candidate that most people find acceptable, even when not most people's first choice. Pros and cons to all systems, but I think finding the candidate that most find acceptable is better, than risking offering people a choice in the second round between 2 extremes that most people really find unacceptable.
The Old GOP, dominated by WASPs from New England is long gone, and it had gone thirty years ago.
As Alanbrooke says, parties are always adding to, and losing voters from, their coalitions. Georgia is now a swing State, Virginia and Colorado are lost for good, but Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are now solid Red.
In the same way the Dems struggles without Obama, can the GOP do well without Trump? He has a certain something. A charisma and connection that is rare, Trump wannabes could come up very short.
Trump is a boorish, selfish narcissist, unable to distinguish between his own interest and the country's interest.
However he has charisma and star quality, honed by years of reality TV. That blue collar rural Americans think he speaks for them, despite being a New York Real Estate hustler, serial adulterer, and unable to name a single Bible verse, is quite a phenomenon. He is the most successful con artist of all time, and one marker of his skill is leaving the conned wanting to be conned again.
His ostentatious greed and vulgarity are not an electoral problem with his voters, indeed Trump legitimises their own selfish behaviours. There need be no pretence of looking after fellow Americans if you are a Trump supporter.
It is really incredible how little movement there was on the decision desk results page yesterday. Over about 24 hours the US have managed to count 3 or 4m votes. Absolutely pathetic. 2 states were called, not because the counting was completely over of course, but because the result was pretty certain. It's really pathetic.
And feck knows what Nevada was playing at.
Waiting on The Families to meet, to decide who they want as President?
Apparently it seems that if people make technical mistakes filling out postal votes (unmatched signatures etc) then in some states they can correct them after the election. So the election authorities can delay counts whilst literally contacting these voters and asking them to rectify the errors! Crazy! No wonder it’s taking so long.
I think the counting of votes in the U.K. would be A LOT slower if there was the same level of legal scrutiny as there is in the US. Basically the U.K. proceeds on the basis that everything is above board, and there is no potential partisanship in the electoral process (so that even if errors are made they are “equal opportunity” and could just as easily favour either side).
It would all have to change if one or other party actually started making serious attempts at corrupting the voting process. And I doubt the system could cope that well with it. It seems to me that the US system is far more advanced and transparent in order to combat potential fraud. But that is because it needs to me.
The U.K. system is designed to be above board, that’s the difference. There’s national regulations and a national oversight body, the mechanics of the election are run by career civil servants rather than elected officials, and results are delivered swiftly with parties observing.
In the USA, you have every state governor and city mayor micromanaging the actual election process, arguing about opening hours and placement of polling stations, rules on absentee and postal ballots, and voter identification - often on a nakedly partisan basis to reduce the turnout of their opponents’ voters.
There seem to me to be equal problems in the USA Electoral Area process.
And it seems to be everywhere, especially the Senate. Here there are various legal duties, and a practise of reflecting other political boundaries - eg my MP's Constituency is close to being the same as the local Council District.
The US House seat boundary setting is so blantantly partisan they even have a word for it, named after Massachusetts governor Elmbridge Gerry, as far back as 1812 - there’s been more than a 200 year history of it! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering
A big difference in the UK is our party-neutral officials. For example, polling districts are decided by local councillors, and hence by politicians, but on a sensitive subject, officers' recommendations carry a lot of weight. I remember a long time ago a proposal to split a polling district so that some council blocks, where turnout was very low, would be made into a separate district with its own polling station in a room off the lobby of one of the blocks. There was some muttering from Conservative councillors, less than keen to increase turnout there, but none was bold enough to vote against it in public.
Now, I guess in some circumstances a proposal like that might get vetoed by a majority council and never see the like of day - but my judgement is that most councillors would be wary of exposing themselves to the risk of it later coming out that an officer recommendation on an electoral matter had been supressed like that. Technically, our officers would have the right to put the proposal to the committee regardless, although it would be a brave officer who did so in the face of a direction otherwise from a leading councillor.
The US administration is partisan partly because so many key appointments are either elected or political.
Morning all! A long sleep and feeling entertained by the growing shitshow that is America. The lunatics that voted Republican really will do whatever they are told won't they. "Count the vote" and "Stop the count" protests held simultaneously by the same supporters in different places? Don't they understand how stupid that is?
Perhaps they do - that one side in America no longer cares about democracy or American values as long as they get Gilead. Biden has won this and happily the 270 - 268 wafer thin scenario looks to be unlikely now as well. Trump won't be happy, and that means Hitler in the bunker barking orders at his dwindling resources. He's already incited the protesters to stop the vote / keep counting. He'd like to get the Supreme Court involved but it looks like he'll struggle.
At which point do the people around the Trump family decide that this is turning into damage against the GOP? Mike Pence as 46th President for a few weeks has to be an option for them. Followed in quick succession by Biden 47th and Harris 48th.
The DNC have to ask themselves hard questions though. Half of America responded to their campaign wanting equality and justice and fairness by voting for Gilead. Just like NSDAP voters in Germany there are an ocean of people who *want* an end to a democracy which threatens their interests - guns, right to life, "Christianity", tradition (slavery, misogyny). How you square that particular circle God alone knows.
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
Surely Boris has done all those things? Elected by people who convinced themselves that while Boris might be AIDS, Jeremy Corbyn was, well, I don't know, ask @Foxy for a worse disease.
Try Necrotizing fasciitis (NF), also known as flesh-eating disease - an infection that results in the death of parts of the body's soft tissue. It is a severe disease of sudden onset that spreads rapidly. Symptoms usually include red or purple skin in the affected area, severe pain, fever, and vomiting.
Politically, Corbyn was Labour's Necrotizing fasciitis at the ballot box.
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
Surely Boris has done all those things? Elected by people who convinced themselves that while Boris might be AIDS, Jeremy Corbyn was, well, I don't know, ask @Foxy for a worse disease.
AIDS is not a bad disease any more. As long as you keep taking the pills it is almost normal life and life expectancy. AIDS is now a chronic disease like diabetes or blood pressure.
If you are looking for a parallel for Corbyn, I would go for a non infectious disease. Perhaps an addiction? Something with short term appeal as a way of escaping reality, but fundamentally destructive of self and others.
Looks like the Washington Post's final poll in Wisconsin was out by 16 percentage points. That's quite an error.
But did they call it right? That's the only thing the matters for pollster accuracy.
I know you're joking, but they will get away with being 16 points out because Biden won. Just like the pollsters got Macron-Le Pen way wrong, but nobody talks about it as a massive polling failure (much bigger than the ones people do talk about), because Macron still won.
Apparently it seems that if people make technical mistakes filling out postal votes (unmatched signatures etc) then in some states they can correct them after the election. So the election authorities can delay counts whilst literally contacting these voters and asking them to rectify the errors! Crazy! No wonder it’s taking so long.
Yes, in Nevada the deadline for doing what is called "curing" a signature is next Tuesday
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
Surely Boris has done all those things? Elected by people who convinced themselves that while Boris might be AIDS, Jeremy Corbyn was, well, I don't know, ask @Foxy for a worse disease.
Try Necrotizing fasciitis (NF), also known as flesh-eating disease - an infection that results in the death of parts of the body's soft tissue. It is a severe disease of sudden onset that spreads rapidly. Symptoms usually include red or purple skin in the affected area, severe pain, fever, and vomiting.
Politically, Corbyn was Labour's Necrotizing fasciitis at the ballot box.
Not a bad choice. Aggressive surgical debridement is the only way to beat it.
I think the counting of votes in the U.K. would be A LOT slower if there was the same level of legal scrutiny as there is in the US. Basically the U.K. proceeds on the basis that everything is above board, and there is no potential partisanship in the electoral process (so that even if errors are made they are “equal opportunity” and could just as easily favour either side).
It would all have to change if one or other party actually started making serious attempts at corrupting the voting process. And I doubt the system could cope that well with it. It seems to me that the US system is far more advanced and transparent in order to combat potential fraud. But that is because it needs to me.
The U.K. system is designed to be above board, that’s the difference. There’s national regulations and a national oversight body, the mechanics of the election are run by career civil servants rather than elected officials, and results are delivered swiftly with parties observing.
In the USA, you have every state governor and city mayor micromanaging the actual election process, arguing about opening hours and placement of polling stations, rules on absentee and postal ballots, and voter identification - often on a nakedly partisan basis to reduce the turnout of their opponents’ voters.
Very true, Mr S. Voting on the same ballot paper for everything from President to town Dog-catcher doesn't help. either.
British democracy is seriously flawed, but I would take it over US democracy.
Indeed.
Imo France has the fairest/best electoral system for choosing the head of state.
Yes, the 2 stage election, weeks apart, is a fine system that minimises the need for tactical voting, and is even better than AV. The final two are clear, and the second stage allows a pause for thought. Do you really want Le Pen?
Eventually, the answer will be yes. Of course, one could argue that by the point that happens Le Pen won't be considered much of an extremist.
That said, they really weren't all that far off Le Pen v Melenchon in 2017, which would have been hilarious.
Which highlights the flaw in the run-off system. Let's say Le Pen and Melenchon were the least acceptable candidates for most voters - the run-off system could easily have meant that the second least acceptable candidate for most voters wins where there are several viable candidates in the first round. Preferential voting or approval voting avoids this and tends to find the candidate that most people find acceptable, even when not most people's first choice. Pros and cons to all systems, but I think finding the candidate that most find acceptable is better, than risking offering people a choice in the second round between 2 extremes that most people really find unacceptable.
Nevertheless credit the Americans for recognising that in a two-party context having at least 50% of the vote does convey legitimacy, and is a requirement in Senate contests. In that respect they are ahead of us, with UK MPs having been "elected" on anything from a quarter of the vote upwards
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
Surely Boris has done all those things? Elected by people who convinced themselves that while Boris might be AIDS, Jeremy Corbyn was, well, I don't know, ask @Foxy for a worse disease.
AIDS is not a bad disease any more. As long as you keep taking the pills it is almost normal life and life expectancy. AIDS is now a chronic disease like diabetes or blood pressure.
If you are looking for a parallel for Corbyn, I would go for a non infectious disease. Perhaps an addiction? Something with short term appeal as a way of escaping reality, but fundamentally destructive of self and others.
Yup, the question is - is that representative or skewed by voting methods type.
Anyone got any idea what is outstanding and how all the current methods have voted?
Unverified but some appear to be saying that batch released was always thought to favour Trump and the remainder should be more friendly Democratic, but DYOR
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
The GOP of McConnell will be ascendant. That's not a particularly bipartisan GOP to put it mildly.
Then, when the Primaries happen for the midterms we see how much further QAnon, or the next evolution of extremism, has spread.
That's the question for me. Where goes QAnon now. It will either fizzle out in 6 months or 2022 will see a raft of QAnon candidates for Congress and local races.
I don't think Trump will be carrying on a secret war against the Deep State from Trump TV, or wherever he ends up (assuming he loses). But I think a new conspiracy theory of the extreme right will emerge if QAnon fails to adapt.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Probably more like that thing when you wake up and your throat feels very dry and you wonder whether you're getting a cold but it turns out to be nothing.
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
Surely Boris has done all those things? Elected by people who convinced themselves that while Boris might be AIDS, Jeremy Corbyn was, well, I don't know, ask @Foxy for a worse disease.
Try Necrotizing fasciitis (NF), also known as flesh-eating disease - an infection that results in the death of parts of the body's soft tissue. It is a severe disease of sudden onset that spreads rapidly. Symptoms usually include red or purple skin in the affected area, severe pain, fever, and vomiting.
Politically, Corbyn was Labour's Necrotizing fasciitis at the ballot box.
Not a bad choice. Aggressive surgical debridement is the only way to beat it.
It might not be nice to amputate a limb but if it is the only way to save the patient then do it.
Some people still seem sceptical of Biden winning. There are 120,000 Postals in Philadelphia alone still to count and 763,311 state wide In Delaware County (Clinton 59%) the postals were 85% in Biden's favour Philadelphia voted Clinton 82%, the postals from Philly alone will send Biden over the top.
ALSO
Twelve red counties still haven't counted any postals. We know from Trump counties that haven't been slow counting that Biden still wins the postal split at least 60/40 in those counties.
Pennsylvania is in the bag - there is no route for Trump.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
The GOP of McConnell will be ascendant. That's not a particularly bipartisan GOP to put it mildly.
Then, when the Primaries happen for the midterms we see how much further QAnon, or the next evolution of extremism, has spread.
That's the question for me. Where goes QAnon now. It will either fizzle out in 6 months or 2022 will see a raft of QAnon candidates for Congress and local races.
I don't think Trump will be carrying on a secret war against the Deep State from Trump TV, or wherever he ends up (assuming he loses). But I think a new conspiracy theory of the extreme right will emerge if QAnon fails to adapt.
As he'll quite likely be either in the nick or fighting to keep out of it, he won't.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
Zzzzzzzzzzzz.
Get over yourself man.
LOL
this time yesterday you were shitting yourself at the result, unable to comprehend why the Dems massively underdelivered.
Against Trump.
Yes that one.
The polls being wrong is not the same as Biden under-delivering.
What we do know is that many Tories inside and outside the government are rooting for a President who is currently seeking to prevent votes being counted and whose gun-toting supporters are engaged are intimidating election officials as they try to do their jobs. No amount of zzzzzzzing changes that.
The Reps are doing what Gore did in 2000, lawyers the lot. Neither party can claim to be guardians of virtue its simply the States has let its politics get out of control. Quite why you imagine anyone is cheerleading this is beyond me.
AOC got 400,000 people on her Among US stream for 3 hours. I wonder who will be the first UK politician to work out how important streaming on twitch is going to be in the next election. I can't think of any who could do it authentically except perhaps Steve "Brexit Hardman" Baker playing something like Snowrunners.
Some people still seem sceptical of Biden winning. There are 120,000 Postals in Philadelphia alone still to count and 763,311 state wide In Delaware County (Clinton 59%) the postals were 85% in Biden's favour Philadelphia voted Clinton 82%, the postals from Philly alone will send Biden over the top.
ALSO
Twelve red counties still haven't counted any postals. We know from Trump counties that haven't been slow counting that Biden still wins the postal split at least 60/40 in those counties.
Pennsylvania is in the bag - there is no route for Trump.
Absolutely ludicrous that North Carolina won't be updating its total for more than a week.
Not finalising it until final ballots arrive I understand but not updating it at all with many ballots still outstanding is just weird.
They are not projecting the confidence of winners. I strongly suspect they know they have lost PA and with it any chance of a comeback through AZ and/or NV.
GA is interesting - looks to slightly favour Biden at this point? But wafer thin. Will definitely go to recount regardless.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
The Old GOP, dominated by WASPs from New England is long gone, and it had gone thirty years ago.
As Alanbrooke says, parties are always adding to, and losing voters from, their coalitions. Georgia is now a swing State, Virginia and Colorado are lost for good, but Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are now solid Red.
In the same way the Dems struggles without Obama, can the GOP do well without Trump? He has a certain something. A charisma and connection that is rare, Trump wannabes could come up very short.
Trump is a boorish, selfish narcissist, unable to distinguish between his own interest and the country's interest.
However he has charisma and star quality, honed by years of reality TV. That blue collar rural Americans think he speaks for them, despite being a New York Real Estate hustler, serial adulterer, and unable to name a single Bible verse, is quite a phenomenon. He is the most successful con artist of all time, and one marker of his skill is leaving the conned wanting to be conned again.
His ostentatious greed and vulgarity are not an electoral problem with his voters, indeed Trump legitimises their own selfish behaviours. There need be no pretence of looking after fellow Americans if you are a Trump supporter.
To be fair to Americans, rich and poor, they do tend to be very generous to "good causes" by our standards, motivated by religion and tax concessions. Mrs Thatcher was said to be surprised and disappointed the same did not happen here and that newly-minted millionaires did not put their hands in their pockets; remember she used to talk about the Good Samaritan being rich.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
The Republican Party is three different parties, though, held together by a fear of the Democratic agenda. There are religious Conservatives whose biggest concern is abortion. There's the protectionist / isolationists, and there are the people who want a low regulation, low tax economy.
If Tom Cotton takes the lead in 2024 (and he may well do), then it's the protectionist / isolationist wing that take the Presidency (I'm pencilling 2024 as a Republican gain). If it's Marco Rubio, Ducey or Walker, then it's the low regulation guys (who are pretty free trade led). And if it's a Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee figure (although probably not one of those guys), then it's the Religious Conservatives.
I don't think it's clear which faction has the lead yet.
And if the Supreme Court defangs Roe vs Wade, then can the Religious Conservatives hold together? If abortion were to become a state issue, it might fundamentally change American politics.
Then there's Obamacare. The low regulation / low tax guys hate it. But most of the protectionist / isolationists like it, if not the name.
In other words, we don't know what the Republican Party will choose to be. Because those three factions are only really united by a common enemy. (Not that the Dems are any better.)
And is it any different with the Dems ? They are just as factional and united only by hating the Reps.
Biden is about to become president and frankly his only platform was he isnt Trump. I havent the faintest idea what policies he has ( probably none ) except he's not Donald.
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
We will see if Biden is more conciliatory. Pretty much every modern President who's been forced to work across the aisle (Clinton, Bush and Obama) has been better for it, because it forced pragmatism over intellectual purity. I think he will. But he'll also be a one term President, because he's not the youngest of chickens, and this isn't exactly the best of times to take over.
Trump certainly enjoys upsetting the apple cast. But in reality while he has given a few people a scare he jasnt fundamentally changed the system. It has survived him.
Some people still seem sceptical of Biden winning. There are 120,000 Postals in Philadelphia alone still to count and 763,311 state wide In Delaware County (Clinton 59%) the postals were 85% in Biden's favour Philadelphia voted Clinton 82%, the postals from Philly alone will send Biden over the top.
ALSO
Twelve red counties still haven't counted any postals. We know from Trump counties that haven't been slow counting that Biden still wins the postal split at least 60/40 in those counties.
Pennsylvania is in the bag - there is no route for Trump.
If Biden is winning at least 60-40 in postal votes in Republican counties then it really is all over. He needs only a 21-point lead overall.
Also worth bearing in mind he needs only a 10-point lead in Georgia among uncounted votes.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
Not without a law change extending the length of this Parliament. Next election currently set as May 2024.
Some people still seem sceptical of Biden winning. There are 120,000 Postals in Philadelphia alone still to count and 763,311 state wide In Delaware County (Clinton 59%) the postals were 85% in Biden's favour Philadelphia voted Clinton 82%, the postals from Philly alone will send Biden over the top.
ALSO
Twelve red counties still haven't counted any postals. We know from Trump counties that haven't been slow counting that Biden still wins the postal split at least 60/40 in those counties.
Pennsylvania is in the bag - there is no route for Trump.
Glad to wake up and log in to read this news.
It's basically no change from when I first posted this 24 hours ago. All that's happened is the gap and number of outstanding ballots is halved a and the gap is almost gone.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
The Republican Party is three different parties, though, held together by a fear of the Democratic agenda. There are religious Conservatives whose biggest concern is abortion. There's the protectionist / isolationists, and there are the people who want a low regulation, low tax economy.
If Tom Cotton takes the lead in 2024 (and he may well do), then it's the protectionist / isolationist wing that take the Presidency (I'm pencilling 2024 as a Republican gain). If it's Marco Rubio, Ducey or Walker, then it's the low regulation guys (who are pretty free trade led). And if it's a Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee figure (although probably not one of those guys), then it's the Religious Conservatives.
I don't think it's clear which faction has the lead yet.
And if the Supreme Court defangs Roe vs Wade, then can the Religious Conservatives hold together? If abortion were to become a state issue, it might fundamentally change American politics.
Then there's Obamacare. The low regulation / low tax guys hate it. But most of the protectionist / isolationists like it, if not the name.
In other words, we don't know what the Republican Party will choose to be. Because those three factions are only really united by a common enemy. (Not that the Dems are any better.)
And is it any different with the Dems ? They are just as factional and united only by hating the Reps.
Biden is about to become president and frankly his only platform was he isnt Trump. I havent the faintest idea what policies he has ( probably none ) except he's not Donald.
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
We will see if Biden is more conciliatory. Pretty much every modern President who's been forced to work across the aisle (Clinton, Bush and Obama) has been better for it, because it forced pragmatism over intellectual purity. I think he will. But he'll also be a one term President, because he's not the youngest of chickens, and this isn't exactly the best of times to take over.
Trump certainly enjoys upsetting the apple cast. But in reality while he has given a few people a scare he jasnt fundamentally changed the system. It has survived him.
If you believed that before today, that's one thing.
But if you still believe that today, with the tweeting of fake videos of Trump ballots being burnt, then you are a fool or a knave.
Back of fag packet on Arizona: Trump needs 57.5/42.5% split to take Arizona.
That's not quite true. (Or at least it's misleading.) Postal ballots recieved Weds (but posted before the election) count, and they're overwhelmingly for Biden.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
His 2am Hail to the Thief press conference has pushed senior GOP stalwarts into condemnation. And Trump is tweeting increasingly wild things the more it becomes clear that he has lost. He is not going to accept the result of the election and that is why I think there will be a putch against him.
Wouldn't the GOP like to be rid of this loser and his circus of family members and sycophants? If they act quickly they can remove them from the table and not have to suffer the lunacy that will follow over the next 4 years where instead of attacking President Biden / Harris they get sidetracked into wild conspiracies about the past.
Invoke the 25th. Remove Trump from office. Install Pence. Get started on the Gilead 2024 narrative now where "former President" Pence sounds much better than "Trump's former Vice-President" Pence.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
Not without a law change extending the length of this Parliament. Next election currently set as May 2024.
Repealing the FTPA was in the Conservative manifesto.
Not guaranteed to happen by all means. The government is current rather busy after all, but there is plenty of time and a large, largely compliant, majority.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
The Republican Party is three different parties, though, held together by a fear of the Democratic agenda. There are religious Conservatives whose biggest concern is abortion. There's the protectionist / isolationists, and there are the people who want a low regulation, low tax economy.
If Tom Cotton takes the lead in 2024 (and he may well do), then it's the protectionist / isolationist wing that take the Presidency (I'm pencilling 2024 as a Republican gain). If it's Marco Rubio, Ducey or Walker, then it's the low regulation guys (who are pretty free trade led). And if it's a Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee figure (although probably not one of those guys), then it's the Religious Conservatives.
I don't think it's clear which faction has the lead yet.
And if the Supreme Court defangs Roe vs Wade, then can the Religious Conservatives hold together? If abortion were to become a state issue, it might fundamentally change American politics.
Then there's Obamacare. The low regulation / low tax guys hate it. But most of the protectionist / isolationists like it, if not the name.
In other words, we don't know what the Republican Party will choose to be. Because those three factions are only really united by a common enemy. (Not that the Dems are any better.)
And is it any different with the Dems ? They are just as factional and united only by hating the Reps.
Biden is about to become president and frankly his only platform was he isnt Trump. I havent the faintest idea what policies he has ( probably none ) except he's not Donald.
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
We will see if Biden is more conciliatory. Pretty much every modern President who's been forced to work across the aisle (Clinton, Bush and Obama) has been better for it, because it forced pragmatism over intellectual purity. I think he will. But he'll also be a one term President, because he's not the youngest of chickens, and this isn't exactly the best of times to take over.
Trump certainly enjoys upsetting the apple cast. But in reality while he has given a few people a scare he jasnt fundamentally changed the system. It has survived him.
If you believed that before today, that's one thing.
But if you still believe that today, with the tweeting of fake videos of Trump ballots being burnt, then you are a fool or a knave.
And just a few hours ago. Astonishing. I went to bed at 3.30am thinking it was uncomfortably close but my gut was saying "Trump by a whisker". This grew when I awoke at 7:30 and I sent my children to school telling them that Trump had probably won.
British democracy is seriously flawed, but I would take it over US democracy.
Indeed.
Imo France has the fairest/best electoral system for choosing the head of state.
Yes, the 2 stage election, weeks apart, is a fine system that minimises the need for tactical voting, and is even better than AV. The final two are clear, and the second stage allows a pause for thought. Do you really want Le Pen?
Eventually, the answer will be yes. Of course, one could argue that by the point that happens Le Pen won't be considered much of an extremist.
That said, they really weren't all that far off Le Pen v Melenchon in 2017, which would have been hilarious.
Which highlights the flaw in the run-off system. Let's say Le Pen and Melenchon were the least acceptable candidates for most voters - the run-off system could easily have meant that the second least acceptable candidate for most voters wins where there are several viable candidates in the first round. Preferential voting or approval voting avoids this and tends to find the candidate that most people find acceptable, even when not most people's first choice. Pros and cons to all systems, but I think finding the candidate that most find acceptable is better, than risking offering people a choice in the second round between 2 extremes that most people really find unacceptable.
Nevertheless credit the Americans for recognising that in a two-party context having at least 50% of the vote does convey legitimacy, and is a requirement in Senate contests. In that respect they are ahead of us, with UK MPs having been "elected" on anything from a quarter of the vote upwards
Is that a Georgia rule, or all states? I haven't heard of it elsewhere.
The. If question for me is if Trump loses will the GOP remain united or will the old GOP reassert itself?
Where's this old GOP ? Politics in the States is shifting and same as here parties are swapping voters . The failure of the DEMs to hammer Trump in to the ground means with a half decent candidate the Reps start with a reasonable platform in 2024. Biden I suspect will be a one term president so the next election could be as close as this one.
Zzzzzzzzzzzz.
Get over yourself man.
LOL
this time yesterday you were shitting yourself at the result, unable to comprehend why the Dems massively underdelivered.
Against Trump.
Yes that one.
The polls being wrong is not the same as Biden under-delivering.
What we do know is that many Tories inside and outside the government are rooting for a President who is currently seeking to prevent votes being counted and whose gun-toting supporters are engaged are intimidating election officials as they try to do their jobs. No amount of zzzzzzzing changes that.
The Reps are doing what Gore did in 2000, lawyers the lot. Neither party can claim to be guardians of virtue its simply the States has let its politics get out of control. Quite why you imagine anyone is cheerleading this is beyond me.
You mean what the GOP did to Gore in 2000? Democrats accused Gore of being naive about GOP tactics and conceding defeat too early.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
Some people still seem sceptical of Biden winning. There are 120,000 Postals in Philadelphia alone still to count and 763,311 state wide In Delaware County (Clinton 59%) the postals were 85% in Biden's favour Philadelphia voted Clinton 82%, the postals from Philly alone will send Biden over the top.
ALSO
Twelve red counties still haven't counted any postals. We know from Trump counties that haven't been slow counting that Biden still wins the postal split at least 60/40 in those counties.
Pennsylvania is in the bag - there is no route for Trump.
If Biden is winning at least 60-40 in postal votes in Republican counties then it really is all over. He needs only a 21-point lead overall.
Also worth bearing in mind he needs only a 10-point lead in Georgia among uncounted votes.
Georgia doesn’t quite get him there though. Would bring him to 269, agonisingly close.
Is PA still counting? I want this thing killed off.
President Trump was (and is) an existential threat to the US system.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis. Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
Surely Boris has done all those things? Elected by people who convinced themselves that while Boris might be AIDS, Jeremy Corbyn was, well, I don't know, ask @Foxy for a worse disease.
Try Necrotizing fasciitis (NF), also known as flesh-eating disease - an infection that results in the death of parts of the body's soft tissue. It is a severe disease of sudden onset that spreads rapidly. Symptoms usually include red or purple skin in the affected area, severe pain, fever, and vomiting.
Politically, Corbyn was Labour's Necrotizing fasciitis at the ballot box.
Not a bad choice. Aggressive surgical debridement is the only way to beat it.
Excellent analogy, but is Starmer a sufficiently determined and skilful surgeon ?
(Trump, I'd say, is more like an aggressive cancer - a threat to the entire system, and you've got one fairly uncertain shot at curing it.)
The Old GOP, dominated by WASPs from New England is long gone, and it had gone thirty years ago.
As Alanbrooke says, parties are always adding to, and losing voters from, their coalitions. Georgia is now a swing State, Virginia and Colorado are lost for good, but Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are now solid Red.
In the same way the Dems struggles without Obama, can the GOP do well without Trump? He has a certain something. A charisma and connection that is rare, Trump wannabes could come up very short.
Trump is a boorish, selfish narcissist, unable to distinguish between his own interest and the country's interest.
However he has charisma and star quality, honed by years of reality TV. That blue collar rural Americans think he speaks for them, despite being a New York Real Estate hustler, serial adulterer, and unable to name a single Bible verse, is quite a phenomenon.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
Not quite as dull as your continuing apologies for Trump and his mob.
Comments
As Alanbrooke says, parties are always adding to, and losing voters from, their coalitions. Georgia is now a swing State, Virginia and Colorado are lost for good, but Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are now solid Red.
Looks like I might be wrong.
But we’ll see.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering
Dont known if you heard but there was an election recently and the GOP lost it's majority on the Michigan Supreme Court.
What we do know is that many Tories inside and outside the government are rooting for a President who is currently seeking to prevent votes being counted and whose gun-toting supporters are engaged are intimidating election officials as they try to do their jobs. No amount of zzzzzzzing changes that.
He weakened (and continues to) weaken democracy. Whether it is through he crony capitalism. Or his use of the a government agency to carry out a vendetta against Jeff Bezos. Or his use of Executive Orders he knew to be unconstutitional and in direct contradiction to existing law. Or his assaults on the independent judiciary or the press.
It's like this. You have to choose an STD.
You don't want an STD, but the fairy has insisted you must have one because of your prior misdemeanours.
Biden is syphilis.
Trump is AIDS.
You don't want either, but it's not a hard choice at the end of the day.
We will see if Biden is more conciliatory. Pretty much every modern President who's been forced to work across the aisle (Clinton, Bush and Obama) has been better for it, because it forced pragmatism over intellectual purity. I think he will. But he'll also be a one term President, because he's not the youngest of chickens, and this isn't exactly the best of times to take over.
Philly is Liverpool Walton.
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/1324114729653182465
Biden 25,128
Trump 35,911
41:59
IF ONLY!!!
So that batch he just exceeded target
However he has charisma and star quality, honed by years of reality TV. That blue collar rural Americans think he speaks for them, despite being a New York Real Estate hustler, serial adulterer, and unable to name a single Bible verse, is quite a phenomenon. He is the most successful con artist of all time, and one marker of his skill is leaving the conned wanting to be conned again.
His ostentatious greed and vulgarity are not an electoral problem with his voters, indeed Trump legitimises their own selfish behaviours. There need be no pretence of looking after fellow Americans if you are a Trump supporter.
Drop-off believed to be more Biden friendly.
So CNN pundit still favours Biden to win.
I have no idea how reliable that analysis is.
Anyone got any idea what is outstanding and how all the current methods have voted?
Now, I guess in some circumstances a proposal like that might get vetoed by a majority council and never see the like of day - but my judgement is that most councillors would be wary of exposing themselves to the risk of it later coming out that an officer recommendation on an electoral matter had been supressed like that. Technically, our officers would have the right to put the proposal to the committee regardless, although it would be a brave officer who did so in the face of a direction otherwise from a leading councillor.
The US administration is partisan partly because so many key appointments are either elected or political.
Perhaps they do - that one side in America no longer cares about democracy or American values as long as they get Gilead. Biden has won this and happily the 270 - 268 wafer thin scenario looks to be unlikely now as well. Trump won't be happy, and that means Hitler in the bunker barking orders at his dwindling resources. He's already incited the protesters to stop the vote / keep counting. He'd like to get the Supreme Court involved but it looks like he'll struggle.
At which point do the people around the Trump family decide that this is turning into damage against the GOP? Mike Pence as 46th President for a few weeks has to be an option for them. Followed in quick succession by Biden 47th and Harris 48th.
The DNC have to ask themselves hard questions though. Half of America responded to their campaign wanting equality and justice and fairness by voting for Gilead. Just like NSDAP voters in Germany there are an ocean of people who *want* an end to a democracy which threatens their interests - guns, right to life, "Christianity", tradition (slavery, misogyny). How you square that particular circle God alone knows.
Politically, Corbyn was Labour's Necrotizing fasciitis at the ballot box.
If you are looking for a parallel for Corbyn, I would go for a non infectious disease. Perhaps an addiction? Something with short term appeal as a way of escaping reality, but fundamentally destructive of self and others.
Just like the pollsters got Macron-Le Pen way wrong, but nobody talks about it as a massive polling failure (much bigger than the ones people do talk about), because Macron still won.
Shall we have to wait until tomorrow to know for sure?
Sorry to break it to you.
And Good Morning one and all!
Some people still seem sceptical of Biden winning.
There are 120,000 Postals in Philadelphia alone still to count and 763,311 state wide
In Delaware County (Clinton 59%) the postals were 85% in Biden's favour
Philadelphia voted Clinton 82%, the postals from Philly alone will send Biden over the top.
ALSO
Twelve red counties still haven't counted any postals. We know from Trump counties that haven't been slow counting that Biden still wins the postal split at least 60/40 in those counties.
Pennsylvania is in the bag - there is no route for Trump.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
Not finalising it until final ballots arrive I understand but not updating it at all with many ballots still outstanding is just weird.
GA is interesting - looks to slightly favour Biden at this point? But wafer thin. Will definitely go to recount regardless.
Or is it a special bet?
Trump needs 57.5/42.5% split to take Arizona.
Also worth bearing in mind he needs only a 10-point lead in Georgia among uncounted votes.
New record of daily Covid cases in US, 108k and deaths definitely on the up.
Projected deaths having fallen recently back up. 400k by 1/2.
Trump will still own this until late Jan and it is only going in one direction.
But if you still believe that today, with the tweeting of fake videos of Trump ballots being burnt, then you are a fool or a knave.
Wouldn't the GOP like to be rid of this loser and his circus of family members and sycophants? If they act quickly they can remove them from the table and not have to suffer the lunacy that will follow over the next 4 years where instead of attacking President Biden / Harris they get sidetracked into wild conspiracies about the past.
Invoke the 25th. Remove Trump from office. Install Pence. Get started on the Gilead 2024 narrative now where "former President" Pence sounds much better than "Trump's former Vice-President" Pence.
Not guaranteed to happen by all means. The government is current rather busy after all, but there is plenty of time and a large, largely compliant, majority.
I went to bed at 3.30am thinking it was uncomfortably close but my gut was saying "Trump by a whisker". This grew when I awoke at 7:30 and I sent my children to school telling them that Trump had probably won.
Is PA still counting? I want this thing killed off.
(Trump, I'd say, is more like an aggressive cancer - a threat to the entire system, and you've got one fairly uncertain shot at curing it.)
That comes to mind quite a lot at the moment.