Trend of late vote incorporation in my Pennsylvania model is broadly holding, though it's the second derivative of a fairly hacked together model. Currently forecasts Biden by 70k on that basis.
The UK government's apparent obsession with the idea that somehow the importance of a trade deal with the EU is dependent on a few thousand hanging chads in Nevada and Arizona is another ludicrous pieces of nonsense in the long and sorry history of Brexit self-delusion. Do they really think that Trump, Trump for heaven's sake, is going to ride to the rescue of the UK and somehow instantly produce a tremendous US trade deal (despite a Democratic-dominated House) which will compensate for the chaos of no-deal crash out in eight weeks' time?
Boris would certainly only risk No Deal with a FTA from Trump still in the offing, with Biden there will be no FTA with the US without a FTA with the EU or a scrapping of the internal markets bill so Boris will almost certainly chicken out now and cave in on state aid in the next few weeks for a trade deal with the EU, agree to keep talking on fishing and No Deal will be averted, leaving Farage crying 'betrayal' as usual while everyone else moves on
The UK government's apparent obsession with the idea that somehow the importance of a trade deal with the EU is dependent on a few thousand hanging chads in Nevada and Arizona is another ludicrous pieces of nonsense in the long and sorry history of Brexit self-delusion. Do they really think that Trump, Trump for heaven's sake, is going to ride to the rescue of the UK and somehow instantly produce a tremendous US trade deal (despite a Democratic-dominated House) which will compensate for the chaos of no-deal crash out in eight weeks' time?
Boris would only risk No Deal with a FTA from Trump still in the offing, with Biden there will be no FTA with the US without a FTA with the EU so Boris will almost certainly chicken out and cave in on state aid in the next few weeks for a trade deal with the EU, agree to keep talking on fishing and No Deal will be averted
Exactly. Completely barmy. There chances of a trade deal with the US anytime soon are zero whoever is president, and even if some loose deal could be agreed - which under either president would require the NI protocol to be implemented in full, and would require much easier US access to the UK healthcare market and us accepting their food standards, since those are the only two things they are interested in - it would be of virtually zero economic benefit to the UK for several years. They can't seriously think otherwise, can they?
What a day! Strangely, after all that roller coaster, not much has changed in the USA, apart from the President. He was too incompetent to steal an election may be his epitaph...
I'm knackered. I've been staring at the numbers wondering whether to cash out in case Trump pulls it out of the fire, or press up on a near-certain Biden victory at 1/8, but the old neurons aren't firing and all that has happened is Biden's moved into 1/10. 538 says no news is expected for another couple of hours. Time for a nap, or at least a break to scan tomorrow's racing cards.
ETA: I once worked 72 hours straight but that was 20 years ago. Now 24 hours staring at election results is too much.
The UK government's apparent obsession with the idea that somehow the importance of a trade deal with the EU is dependent on a few thousand hanging chads in Nevada and Arizona is another ludicrous pieces of nonsense in the long and sorry history of Brexit self-delusion. Do they really think that Trump, Trump for heaven's sake, is going to ride to the rescue of the UK and somehow instantly produce a tremendous US trade deal (despite a Democratic-dominated House) which will compensate for the chaos of no-deal crash out in eight weeks' time?
Boris would only risk No Deal with a FTA from Trump still in the offing, with Biden there will be no FTA with the US without a FTA with the EU so Boris will almost certainly chicken out and cave in on state aid in the next few weeks for a trade deal with the EU, agree to keep talking on fishing and No Deal will be averted
Exactly. Completely barmy. There chances of a trade deal with the US anytime soon are zero whoever is president, and even if some loose deal could be agreed - which under either president would require the NI protocol to be implemented in full, and would require much easier US access to the UK healthcare market and us accepting their food standards, since those are the only two things they are interested in - it would be of virtually zero economic benefit to the UK for several years. They can't seriously think otherwise, can they?
It is only HYUFD that seems to think this comes down to a US trade deal. HYUFD doesn't speak for the government (thankfully) if he did I wouldn't support it.
The UK government's apparent obsession with the idea that somehow the importance of a trade deal with the EU is dependent on a few thousand hanging chads in Nevada and Arizona is another ludicrous pieces of nonsense in the long and sorry history of Brexit self-delusion. Do they really think that Trump, Trump for heaven's sake, is going to ride to the rescue of the UK and somehow instantly produce a tremendous US trade deal (despite a Democratic-dominated House) which will compensate for the chaos of no-deal crash out in eight weeks' time?
Boris would only risk No Deal with a FTA from Trump still in the offing, with Biden there will be no FTA with the US without a FTA with the EU so Boris will almost certainly chicken out and cave in on state aid in the next few weeks for a trade deal with the EU, agree to keep talking on fishing and No Deal will be averted
Exactly. Completely barmy. There chances of a trade deal with the US anytime soon are zero whoever is president, and even if some loose deal could be agreed - which under either president would require the NI protocol to be implemented in full, and would require much easier US access to the UK healthcare market and us accepting their food standards, since those are the only two things they are interested in - it would be of virtually zero economic benefit to the UK for several years. They can't seriously think otherwise, can they?
It is only HYUFD that seems to think this comes down to a US trade deal. HYUFD doesn't speak for the government (thankfully) if he did I wouldn't support it.
The UK government's apparent obsession with the idea that somehow the importance of a trade deal with the EU is dependent on a few thousand hanging chads in Nevada and Arizona is another ludicrous pieces of nonsense in the long and sorry history of Brexit self-delusion. Do they really think that Trump, Trump for heaven's sake, is going to ride to the rescue of the UK and somehow instantly produce a tremendous US trade deal (despite a Democratic-dominated House) which will compensate for the chaos of no-deal crash out in eight weeks' time?
Boris would only risk No Deal with a FTA from Trump still in the offing, with Biden there will be no FTA with the US without a FTA with the EU so Boris will almost certainly chicken out and cave in on state aid in the next few weeks for a trade deal with the EU, agree to keep talking on fishing and No Deal will be averted
Exactly. Completely barmy. There chances of a trade deal with the US anytime soon are zero whoever is president, and even if some loose deal could be agreed - which under either president would require the NI protocol to be implemented in full, and would require much easier US access to the UK healthcare market and us accepting their food standards, since those are the only two things they are interested in - it would be of virtually zero economic benefit to the UK for several years. They can't seriously think otherwise, can they?
It is only HYUFD that seems to think this comes down to a US trade deal. HYUFD doesn't speak for the government (thankfully) if he did I wouldn't support it.
What HYUFD does get, that other fans of the government don't generally get is that its all about presentation and politics for this govt. It doesn't matter at all that a US trade deal might not even happen and if it did, it wouldn't help UK plc. What matters is no deal is easier for the govt to sell with the promise of a US trade deal.
They know the public has little idea if any trade deal is good or bad, and many prefer a US one to and EU one for cultural reasons, or just because they have had enough of the EU.
HYUFD is remarkably honest and transparent on how our government thinks.
Sadly looks like we won't get the joy of Donny's disgraceful treatment of McCain costing him a decisive squeaker in Arizona. But you can't have it all.
The UK government's apparent obsession with the idea that somehow the importance of a trade deal with the EU is dependent on a few thousand hanging chads in Nevada and Arizona is another ludicrous pieces of nonsense in the long and sorry history of Brexit self-delusion. Do they really think that Trump, Trump for heaven's sake, is going to ride to the rescue of the UK and somehow instantly produce a tremendous US trade deal (despite a Democratic-dominated House) which will compensate for the chaos of no-deal crash out in eight weeks' time?
Boris would only risk No Deal with a FTA from Trump still in the offing, with Biden there will be no FTA with the US without a FTA with the EU so Boris will almost certainly chicken out and cave in on state aid in the next few weeks for a trade deal with the EU, agree to keep talking on fishing and No Deal will be averted
Exactly. Completely barmy. There chances of a trade deal with the US anytime soon are zero whoever is president, and even if some loose deal could be agreed - which under either president would require the NI protocol to be implemented in full, and would require much easier US access to the UK healthcare market and us accepting their food standards, since those are the only two things they are interested in - it would be of virtually zero economic benefit to the UK for several years. They can't seriously think otherwise, can they?
It is only HYUFD that seems to think this comes down to a US trade deal. HYUFD doesn't speak for the government (thankfully) if he did I wouldn't support it.
Give up Philip, No Deal is dead, Boris will compromise on state aid in the next few weeks, the noises from government have all been that without a FTA from Trump they cannot risk No Deal and Boris will have to get a trade deal from the EU to minimise the internal markets bill impact and then move to a trade deal with Biden.
So if you then wish to throw your toys out the pram once the inevitable concessions are made you can go back and vote for Farage in his latest vehicle as you did last May when you voted Brexit Party, bye!
The UK government's apparent obsession with the idea that somehow the importance of a trade deal with the EU is dependent on a few thousand hanging chads in Nevada and Arizona is another ludicrous pieces of nonsense in the long and sorry history of Brexit self-delusion. Do they really think that Trump, Trump for heaven's sake, is going to ride to the rescue of the UK and somehow instantly produce a tremendous US trade deal (despite a Democratic-dominated House) which will compensate for the chaos of no-deal crash out in eight weeks' time?
The UK government's apparent obsession with the idea that somehow the importance of a trade deal with the EU is dependent on a few thousand hanging chads in Nevada and Arizona is another ludicrous pieces of nonsense in the long and sorry history of Brexit self-delusion. Do they really think that Trump, Trump for heaven's sake, is going to ride to the rescue of the UK and somehow instantly produce a tremendous US trade deal (despite a Democratic-dominated House) which will compensate for the chaos of no-deal crash out in eight weeks' time?
Boris would only risk No Deal with a FTA from Trump still in the offing, with Biden there will be no FTA with the US without a FTA with the EU so Boris will almost certainly chicken out and cave in on state aid in the next few weeks for a trade deal with the EU, agree to keep talking on fishing and No Deal will be averted
Exactly. Completely barmy. There chances of a trade deal with the US anytime soon are zero whoever is president, and even if some loose deal could be agreed - which under either president would require the NI protocol to be implemented in full, and would require much easier US access to the UK healthcare market and us accepting their food standards, since those are the only two things they are interested in - it would be of virtually zero economic benefit to the UK for several years. They can't seriously think otherwise, can they?
I think it's more about the preserving the mythology of Brexit rather than any practicalities. The Brexit romantics harped on about sailing the Seven Seas and reviving lost alliances with our English-speaking brethren. Admit that was a fairy tale and Brexit is reduced to Nigel Farage and sour-faced measures to keep out foreigners. Trump, in their minds, kept the heroic adventure alive somehow.
The UK government's apparent obsession with the idea that somehow the importance of a trade deal with the EU is dependent on a few thousand hanging chads in Nevada and Arizona is another ludicrous pieces of nonsense in the long and sorry history of Brexit self-delusion. Do they really think that Trump, Trump for heaven's sake, is going to ride to the rescue of the UK and somehow instantly produce a tremendous US trade deal (despite a Democratic-dominated House) which will compensate for the chaos of no-deal crash out in eight weeks' time?
Boris would only risk No Deal with a FTA from Trump still in the offing, with Biden there will be no FTA with the US without a FTA with the EU so Boris will almost certainly chicken out and cave in on state aid in the next few weeks for a trade deal with the EU, agree to keep talking on fishing and No Deal will be averted
Exactly. Completely barmy. There chances of a trade deal with the US anytime soon are zero whoever is president, and even if some loose deal could be agreed - which under either president would require the NI protocol to be implemented in full, and would require much easier US access to the UK healthcare market and us accepting their food standards, since those are the only two things they are interested in - it would be of virtually zero economic benefit to the UK for several years. They can't seriously think otherwise, can they?
I think it's more about the preserving the mythology of Brexit rather than any practicalities. The Brexit romantics harped on about sailing the Seven Seas and reviving lost alliances with our English-speaking brethren. Admit that was a fairy tale and Brexit is reduced to Nigel Farage and sour-faced measures to keep out foreigners. Trump, in their minds, kept the heroic adventure alive somehow.
The UK government's apparent obsession with the idea that somehow the importance of a trade deal with the EU is dependent on a few thousand hanging chads in Nevada and Arizona is another ludicrous pieces of nonsense in the long and sorry history of Brexit self-delusion. Do they really think that Trump, Trump for heaven's sake, is going to ride to the rescue of the UK and somehow instantly produce a tremendous US trade deal (despite a Democratic-dominated House) which will compensate for the chaos of no-deal crash out in eight weeks' time?
Boris would only risk No Deal with a FTA from Trump still in the offing, with Biden there will be no FTA with the US without a FTA with the EU so Boris will almost certainly chicken out and cave in on state aid in the next few weeks for a trade deal with the EU, agree to keep talking on fishing and No Deal will be averted
Exactly. Completely barmy. There chances of a trade deal with the US anytime soon are zero whoever is president, and even if some loose deal could be agreed - which under either president would require the NI protocol to be implemented in full, and would require much easier US access to the UK healthcare market and us accepting their food standards, since those are the only two things they are interested in - it would be of virtually zero economic benefit to the UK for several years. They can't seriously think otherwise, can they?
It is only HYUFD that seems to think this comes down to a US trade deal. HYUFD doesn't speak for the government (thankfully) if he did I wouldn't support it.
It doesn't come down to a US trade deal. That's just a convenient excuse for making the concessions that they were going to make anyway, with the added virtue of being something they can blame on liberal foreigners.
What news on what's been happening in state legislature races?
Masses of uncontested seats for a start! But I don't think much has been reported in all the excitement, but for some upsets or notable individual events, like the first trans state senator etc.
I think it’s been a very disappointing night for the Democrats in terms of the upcoming redistricting. They simply haven’t made the advances they hoped for.
That's a good point. Places like TX, where the talk was of the Ds controlling the lower House, were disappointing.
I suspect this is going to be Obama 2012 redux (assuming Biden wins). Not much done and an energised Republican opposition.
I don’t think it will be quite the same. Irrespective of the statehouse disappointments from last night, there seems to be a general recognition of the mistakes Obama and the party made in not helping build local organisations - over two terms in power. In contrast, just look, for example, at the work Abrams is doing in Georgia. She didn’t run for the Senate seat, but I’m reasonably sure she’ll run for governor next time and win.
But yes, the next two years will be very interesting.
Why? I mean, I'd already forgotten it was their slogan, but if you cannot borrow slogans from others in your own country you can surely do it from others.
Plagiarism!
Well the Democrats stole the Tory shade of Blue, perhaps they can make it a bilateral trade?
What news on what's been happening in state legislature races?
Masses of uncontested seats for a start! But I don't think much has been reported in all the excitement, but for some upsets or notable individual events, like the first trans state senator etc.
I think it’s been a very disappointing night for the Democrats in terms of the upcoming redistricting. They simply haven’t made the advances they hoped for.
That's a good point. Places like TX, where the talk was of the Ds controlling the lower House, were disappointing.
I suspect this is going to be Obama 2012 redux (assuming Biden wins). Not much done and an energised Republican opposition.
I don’t think it will be quite the same. Irrespective of the statehouse disappointments from last night, there seems to be a general recognition of the mistakes Obama and the party made in not helping build local organisations - over two terms in power. In contrast, just look, for example, at the work Abrams is doing in Georgia. She didn’t run for the Senate seat, but I’m reasonably sure she’ll run for governor next time and win.
But yes, the next two years will be very interesting.
I think that is right re the need to organise at the local level so there will be more efforts there. However, that might hampered if there is more infighting in the Democratic side - many of the House candidates won on moderate platforms and the AOC etc agenda goes down like a bucket of sick in their areas.
I think the one permanent positive step up here for the Republicans is that they have realised they can win Hispanic votes and that, in many areas, the Republican agenda fits in quite nicely with that community (socially conservative, American dream etc).
Apparently, the Rs are on track to pick up 10+ House seats so this will be a different House than last time, especially as there is talk of Pelosi being challenged. The Rs did quite well at the state level as well.
I think, for the Ds, winning the election might be somewhat of a poisoned chalice (if they do win)
What news on what's been happening in state legislature races?
Masses of uncontested seats for a start! But I don't think much has been reported in all the excitement, but for some upsets or notable individual events, like the first trans state senator etc.
I think it’s been a very disappointing night for the Democrats in terms of the upcoming redistricting. They simply haven’t made the advances they hoped for.
That's a good point. Places like TX, where the talk was of the Ds controlling the lower House, were disappointing.
I suspect this is going to be Obama 2012 redux (assuming Biden wins). Not much done and an energised Republican opposition.
I don’t think it will be quite the same. Irrespective of the statehouse disappointments from last night, there seems to be a general recognition of the mistakes Obama and the party made in not helping build local organisations - over two terms in power. In contrast, just look, for example, at the work Abrams is doing in Georgia. She didn’t run for the Senate seat, but I’m reasonably sure she’ll run for governor next time and win.
But yes, the next two years will be very interesting.
+1.
And although, in some respects, TX must have been disappointing for Dems, perhaps this has instilled a sense of belief that it will soon be within their grasp, and hence help with actual organizing on the ground and GOTV in future elections at both State and Federal level.
- I think a lot of what pans out in the next few weeks will depend - bizarrely - on AZ. If Trump wins there (and especially if he wins NV), then I think that will persuade him to challenge what has happened on the voting front. Assuming GA and NC go for him (which I think they will), AZ would get him to 258 so one of PA or MI from the Presidency - and MI has a state Republican court - Just totalled up my bets: assuming Trump can get to 250+ EVs and be above 45% of the vote, I reckon I am £2000 up
If Biden does indeed win and given the Democrats have held the House I think we can also say No Deal Brexit is dead, there is no way Boris can risk no trade deal with the EU as well as the US, our 2 largest trading partners, especially with Covid lockdown on top as well and Biden and Pelosi will not do a deal with the UK unless the government either abandons the internal markets bill or gets an EU FTA to minimise its impact.
So expect Boris to compromise with the EU on state aid and a FTA to be agreed in outline by Christmas with fishing kicked into the long grass for further discussions next year. A few diehard No Deal, anti lockdown Brexiteers will no doubt join Farage in his latest vehicle, Reform UK but the rest of us will move on
I wonder what it would have looked like if we hadn't held all the cards?
What news on what's been happening in state legislature races?
Masses of uncontested seats for a start! But I don't think much has been reported in all the excitement, but for some upsets or notable individual events, like the first trans state senator etc.
I think it’s been a very disappointing night for the Democrats in terms of the upcoming redistricting. They simply haven’t made the advances they hoped for.
That's a good point. Places like TX, where the talk was of the Ds controlling the lower House, were disappointing.
I suspect this is going to be Obama 2012 redux (assuming Biden wins). Not much done and an energised Republican opposition.
I don’t think it will be quite the same. Irrespective of the statehouse disappointments from last night, there seems to be a general recognition of the mistakes Obama and the party made in not helping build local organisations - over two terms in power. In contrast, just look, for example, at the work Abrams is doing in Georgia. She didn’t run for the Senate seat, but I’m reasonably sure she’ll run for governor next time and win.
But yes, the next two years will be very interesting.
+1.
And although, in some respects, TX must have been disappointing for Dems, perhaps this has instilled a sense of belief that it will soon be within their grasp, and hence help with actual organizing on the ground and GOTV in future elections at both State and Federal level.
The issue with TX is not so much the GOTV issue but that it is clear that Trump's agenda has appeal for certain segments of the Hispanic population.
It is one of the reasons why I don't think the Rs will get rid of Trump so quickly. On a certain level, he is working from him. If the polls are right, he has upped the Rs share of non-white votes by 5% to its highest share. I suspect the calculation that will be made is that, Trump will be gone at some point but, if he can cement these votes, they are likely to be permanent gains for the R camp.
What news on what's been happening in state legislature races?
Masses of uncontested seats for a start! But I don't think much has been reported in all the excitement, but for some upsets or notable individual events, like the first trans state senator etc.
I think it’s been a very disappointing night for the Democrats in terms of the upcoming redistricting. They simply haven’t made the advances they hoped for.
That's a good point. Places like TX, where the talk was of the Ds controlling the lower House, were disappointing.
I suspect this is going to be Obama 2012 redux (assuming Biden wins). Not much done and an energised Republican opposition.
I don’t think it will be quite the same. Irrespective of the statehouse disappointments from last night, there seems to be a general recognition of the mistakes Obama and the party made in not helping build local organisations - over two terms in power. In contrast, just look, for example, at the work Abrams is doing in Georgia. She didn’t run for the Senate seat, but I’m reasonably sure she’ll run for governor next time and win.
But yes, the next two years will be very interesting.
The organisational lesson comes from Arizona. 10 years ago this was the State of Sheriff Arpaio and a Rep lock on the whole place.
I really don't think media organisations should have the power of calling elections in the US. It should be the election authorities in each state that do it! Seems pretty basic to me. Problem is people don't have the patience to wait for the final result.
Do authorities actually call it in US elections? Seems to me they put the results up, media call it, one of the candidates let opponents know they concede, and they all move on. And disco in the car park
Yes, at some point the state Secretary of State or equivalent will certify the final tally, but that could literally be weeks later depending on what state law says for deadlines etc.
What news on what's been happening in state legislature races?
Masses of uncontested seats for a start! But I don't think much has been reported in all the excitement, but for some upsets or notable individual events, like the first trans state senator etc.
I think it’s been a very disappointing night for the Democrats in terms of the upcoming redistricting. They simply haven’t made the advances they hoped for.
That's a good point. Places like TX, where the talk was of the Ds controlling the lower House, were disappointing.
I suspect this is going to be Obama 2012 redux (assuming Biden wins). Not much done and an energised Republican opposition.
I don’t think it will be quite the same. Irrespective of the statehouse disappointments from last night, there seems to be a general recognition of the mistakes Obama and the party made in not helping build local organisations - over two terms in power. In contrast, just look, for example, at the work Abrams is doing in Georgia. She didn’t run for the Senate seat, but I’m reasonably sure she’ll run for governor next time and win.
But yes, the next two years will be very interesting.
+1.
And although, in some respects, TX must have been disappointing for Dems, perhaps this has instilled a sense of belief that it will soon be within their grasp, and hence help with actual organizing on the ground and GOTV in future elections at both State and Federal level.
The issue with TX is not so much the GOTV issue but that it is clear that Trump's agenda has appeal for certain segments of the Hispanic population.
It is one of the reasons why I don't think the Rs will get rid of Trump so quickly. On a certain level, he is working from him. If the polls are right, he has upped the Rs share of non-white votes by 5% to its highest share. I suspect the calculation that will be made is that, Trump will be gone at some point but, if he can cement these votes, they are likely to be permanent gains for the R camp.
The Latino vote is clearly more complex than most political analysts take into consideration. But there are other demos in TX helping the state become more purple - the tech sector is booming and bring with it new out of state young, educated, dem-leaning blood. Healthcare and education are also booming. And TX is actively trying to poach more tech companies from CA.
So point taken on the Latino vote, but that is not the only factor.
Looks like the Trump campaign has gone legal to halt the count in Georgia, a state that he still has a 50-50 chance in. Maybe they know something we don't
Looks like the Trump campaign has gone legal to halt the count in Georgia, a state that he still has a 50-50 chance in. Maybe they know something we don't
They are claiming 53 ballots which arrived late have been added to the count.
Looks like the Trump campaign has gone legal to halt the count in Georgia, a state that he still has a 50-50 chance in. Maybe they know something we don't
They are claiming 53 ballots which arrived late have been added to the count.
Yes, 53. Not 53,000.
If they shouldn't be included fair enough, though given it would make no difference seems like the point would be, if they are right, Trump can shout about attempted fraud, without mentioning how few it was, to make it seem a bigger issue.
From wikipedia....now sure they will be writing this kind of stuff about Trump in 30 years.
Richard Rose described Bush as a "guardian" president, and many other historians and political scientists have similarly described Bush as a passive, hands-off president who was "largely content with things as they were".[319] Professor Steven Knott writes that "[g]enerally the Bush presidency is viewed as successful in foreign affairs but a disappointment in domestic affairs."[320]
Biographer Jon Meacham writes that, after he left office, many Americans viewed Bush as "a gracious and underappreciated man who had many virtues but who had failed to project enough of a distinctive identity and vision to overcome the economic challenges of 1991–92 and to win a second term."[321] Bush himself noted that his legacy was "lost between the glory of Reagan ... and the trials and tribulations of my sons."[322] In the 2010s, Bush was fondly remembered for his willingness to compromise, which contrasted with the intensely partisan era that followed his presidency.[323]
In 2018, Vox highlighted Bush for his "pragmatism" as a moderate Republican president by working across the isle.
As many as 17 million minks are to be culled in Denmark after a mutated version of the coronavirus that can spread to humans was detected on mink farms.
She cited a government report which said the mutated virus had been found to weaken the body's ability to form antibodies, potentially making the current vaccines under development for Covid-19 ineffective.
As many as 17 million minks are to be culled in Denmark after a mutated version of the coronavirus that can spread to humans was detected on mink farms.
She cited a government report which said the mutated virus had been found to weaken the body's ability to form antibodies, potentially making the current vaccines under development for Covid-19 ineffective.
How will culling the mink help if the mutation is already in the human population and has spread enough for them to have made conclusions about people’s immune response?
"Nurse arrested for trying to take mother with dementia out of care home for lockdown
Ylenia Angeli wanted to look after her 97-year-old mother at home after not being able to see her for nine months. By Laura Bundock, health correspondent"
So, if Biden just pulls off GA from the remaining, it's 269:269
And Trump would win both the Presidency and the Vice Presidency in that circumstance, due to the Senate... although with two Senate seats going to runoff... who the hell knows?
So, if Biden just pulls off GA from the remaining, it's 269:269
And Trump would win both the Presidency and the Vice Presidency in that circumstance, due to the Senate... although with two Senate seats going to runoff... who the hell knows?
Dems should offer Romney the Vice Presidency. If he went for it, it would be 49-48
Well that's been a roller-coaster of a market in the last 24 hours, both candidates priced at 4 at one point or another.
I still don't understand why the States don't put in the resources to have the count certified within 24 hours though.
Why would you take money from schools or policing to pay to make something happen slightly faster for a the benefit of a bunch of people who mostly don't live in your state? They're stuck with a ridiculous 3-month transition because of the constitution, another couple of days won't hurt anyone.
Well that's been a roller-coaster of a market in the last 24 hours, both candidates priced at 4 at one point or another.
I still don't understand why the States don't put in the resources to have the count certified within 24 hours though.
Why would you take money from schools or policing to pay to make something happen slightly faster for a the benefit of a bunch of people who mostly don't live in your state? They're stuck with a ridiculous 3-month transition because of the constitution, another couple of days won't hurt anyone.
To avoid your state looking like a laughing stock in front of the eyes of the world? It’s another purely American issue, pretty much everywhere else in the developed world can get an election counted in a day.
If it’s going to take a thousand man-days’ work on the count, why not do it with 1000 people in one day instead of 100 people for 10 days?
Well that's been a roller-coaster of a market in the last 24 hours, both candidates priced at 4 at one point or another.
I still don't understand why the States don't put in the resources to have the count certified within 24 hours though.
Why would you take money from schools or policing to pay to make something happen slightly faster for a the benefit of a bunch of people who mostly don't live in your state? They're stuck with a ridiculous 3-month transition because of the constitution, another couple of days won't hurt anyone.
To avoid your state looking like a laughing stock in front of the eyes of the world? It’s another purely American issue, pretty much everywhere else in the developed world can get an election counted in a day.
If it’s going to take a thousand man-days’ work on the count, why not do it with 1000 people in one day instead of 100 people for 10 days?
There are machines involved as well, and the people supervising the thing require a certain level of training, so they can't be scaled up at no extra cost.
No state is looking like a laughing stock for taking a few days to count. If anything the attention is good for them. The whole process makes the *USA* looks slightly ridiculous to parts of the world that run elections with a lot less confusion and drama, but I'm sure they can survive that, and the ridiculousness of their process isn't at all confined to the counting speed.
Well that's been a roller-coaster of a market in the last 24 hours, both candidates priced at 4 at one point or another.
And like a complete mug I just sat here thinking it was interesting that Biden was drifting badly when it had been forecast that Trump would lead in on-the-day voting. I did wise up in time to get a few quid on at around 3 on his way back down but this was a massive missed opportunity. I blame sleep deprivation but really it was terminal stupidity and lack of planning.
This is reminiscent of the moment in his final days when Richard Nixon asked 'all the President's men' to kneel in the Oval Office and pray to Almighty God.
Anyhow, having had a decent, albeit short, sleep I awake to find not a lot has altered.
However, it's fairly clear that Biden is going to win Pennsylvania. He's putting in a very strong 'finish' in Georgia, which I think favours him to win (so does the New York Times).
I expect him to hold on in Arizona but it could be a toss up. I expect Trump will hold on in North Carolina although that's not a given. And he will take Alaska. Nevada should still favour Biden. So ...
I think it's really good that the Republicans have performed well in the Congressional elections. It means that over the next 48-72 hours they will abandon Trump and focus on 2022 mid-terms and the 2024 Presidential elections when they will hope to recapture the White House.
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Then again they used the Confederate flag centuries after the Civil War.
Strangely, after all that roller coaster, not much has changed in the USA, apart from the President.
He was too incompetent to steal an election may be his epitaph...
Any more votes expected soon or is it time to get some sleep?
ETA: I once worked 72 hours straight but that was 20 years ago. Now 24 hours staring at election results is too much.
A trade deal with the US is a chimera....
They know the public has little idea if any trade deal is good or bad, and many prefer a US one to and EU one for cultural reasons, or just because they have had enough of the EU.
HYUFD is remarkably honest and transparent on how our government thinks.
But you can't have it all.
So if you then wish to throw your toys out the pram once the inevitable concessions are made you can go back and vote for Farage in his latest vehicle as you did last May when you voted Brexit Party, bye!
Looks like they've stopped getting creative with the star pattern though. In fairness, it;s a strong brand.
Lockdown is here
That means no posting here for 4 weeks
Irrespective of the statehouse disappointments from last night, there seems to be a general recognition of the mistakes Obama and the party made in not helping build local organisations - over two terms in power.
In contrast, just look, for example, at the work Abrams is doing in Georgia. She didn’t run for the Senate seat, but I’m reasonably sure she’ll run for governor next time and win.
But yes, the next two years will be very interesting.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/susan-collins-won-maine.html
The equivalent would be spending about 9 billion fighting a UK general election.
I think the one permanent positive step up here for the Republicans is that they have realised they can win Hispanic votes and that, in many areas, the Republican agenda fits in quite nicely with that community (socially conservative, American dream etc).
Apparently, the Rs are on track to pick up 10+ House seats so this will be a different House than last time, especially as there is talk of Pelosi being challenged. The Rs did quite well at the state level as well.
I think, for the Ds, winning the election might be somewhat of a poisoned chalice (if they do win)
And although, in some respects, TX must have been disappointing for Dems, perhaps this has instilled a sense of belief that it will soon be within their grasp, and hence help with actual organizing on the ground and GOTV in future elections at both State and Federal level.
- I think a lot of what pans out in the next few weeks will depend - bizarrely - on AZ. If Trump wins there (and especially if he wins NV), then I think that will persuade him to challenge what has happened on the voting front. Assuming GA and NC go for him (which I think they will), AZ would get him to 258 so one of PA or MI from the Presidency - and MI has a state Republican court
- Just totalled up my bets: assuming Trump can get to 250+ EVs and be above 45% of the vote, I reckon I am £2000 up
It is one of the reasons why I don't think the Rs will get rid of Trump so quickly. On a certain level, he is working from him. If the polls are right, he has upped the Rs share of non-white votes by 5% to its highest share. I suspect the calculation that will be made is that, Trump will be gone at some point but, if he can cement these votes, they are likely to be permanent gains for the R camp.
Jaime Harrison $105,502,730.37
Amy McGrath $75,280,930.25
Sara Gideon $68,577,474
Cal Cunningham $46,795,495
So point taken on the Latino vote, but that is not the only factor.
47k now, with 5%, or 240k votes to count Biden needs that to split 145/95 or better to win, i.e, a tad better than 60/40
Yes, 53. Not 53,000.
Fulton (72%)
Chatham (57%)
Macon (61%)
Presumably, Biden's share of the mail-in ballots is higher than his overall score in each of those counties, so it's looking very close.
Richard Rose described Bush as a "guardian" president, and many other historians and political scientists have similarly described Bush as a passive, hands-off president who was "largely content with things as they were".[319] Professor Steven Knott writes that "[g]enerally the Bush presidency is viewed as successful in foreign affairs but a disappointment in domestic affairs."[320]
Biographer Jon Meacham writes that, after he left office, many Americans viewed Bush as "a gracious and underappreciated man who had many virtues but who had failed to project enough of a distinctive identity and vision to overcome the economic challenges of 1991–92 and to win a second term."[321] Bush himself noted that his legacy was "lost between the glory of Reagan ... and the trials and tribulations of my sons."[322] In the 2010s, Bush was fondly remembered for his willingness to compromise, which contrasted with the intensely partisan era that followed his presidency.[323]
In 2018, Vox highlighted Bush for his "pragmatism" as a moderate Republican president by working across the isle.
https://twitter.com/BrodyLogan/status/1324099928667291648
149k still to count - and they are all mail ballots.
9,000 Biden, 3,000 Trump
Gap now 39,000
NB. Above figures edited - Trump numbers added later on website
122,000 still to count - of which 60,000 are in Metro Atlanta area
If this comes out as the state with the smallest winning margin, it rounds off a great POTUS cycle.
As many as 17 million minks are to be culled in Denmark after a mutated version of the coronavirus that can spread to humans was detected on mink farms.
She cited a government report which said the mutated virus had been found to weaken the body's ability to form antibodies, potentially making the current vaccines under development for Covid-19 ineffective.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54818615
Trump 44,000, Biden 30,000 just added
Still 500,000+ votes to come in AZ.
However none were Election day - so it's possible that update came from rural part of Maricopa.
The vast majority of remaining vote comes from Maricopa or Pima or Coconino which are counties where Biden leads.
So big picture may still be OK for Biden and update just done may have been unusually Trump friendly.
2020 latest: 113,781
2016: 108,748
https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/ResultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
"Nurse arrested for trying to take mother with dementia out of care home for lockdown
Ylenia Angeli wanted to look after her 97-year-old mother at home after not being able to see her for nine months.
By Laura Bundock, health correspondent"
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nurse-arrested-for-trying-to-take-mother-with-dementia-out-of-care-home-for-lockdown-12123863
Arizona, where are the promised updates?
21,000 Biden, 7,000 Trump
Trump lead now 170,000
I still don't understand why the States don't put in the resources to have the count certified within 24 hours though.
https://twitter.com/rightwingwatch/status/1324175651515949056?s=21
If it’s going to take a thousand man-days’ work on the count, why not do it with 1000 people in one day instead of 100 people for 10 days?
No state is looking like a laughing stock for taking a few days to count. If anything the attention is good for them. The whole process makes the *USA* looks slightly ridiculous to parts of the world that run elections with a lot less confusion and drama, but I'm sure they can survive that, and the ridiculousness of their process isn't at all confined to the counting speed.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/when-will-we-finally-get-results-in-unprojected-states/
This is reminiscent of the moment in his final days when Richard Nixon asked 'all the President's men' to kneel in the Oval Office and pray to Almighty God.
However, it's fairly clear that Biden is going to win Pennsylvania. He's putting in a very strong 'finish' in Georgia, which I think favours him to win (so does the New York Times).
I expect him to hold on in Arizona but it could be a toss up. I expect Trump will hold on in North Carolina although that's not a given. And he will take Alaska. Nevada should still favour Biden. So ...
Trump:
214 + 15 + 3 = 232
Biden
253 + 16 + 20 + 11 + 6 = 306