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Trump down to a 14% chance on Betfair as the post election battles continue – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited November 2020 in General
imageTrump down to a 14% chance on Betfair as the post election battles continue – politicalbetting.com

As had been expected Trump team are not taking their likely defeat with the normal good grace that their predecessors have shown. In a confused statement the 74 year old incumbent is making threats in an effort to do something that will keep him there.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 141
    Can Biden really win enough of the remaining votes to win Pennsylvania. Seems a big ask to me? Anybody know
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    JohnWheatley said:

    Can Biden really win enough of the remaining votes to win Pennsylvania. Seems a big ask to me? Anybody know

    Yes.
  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 141
    Crikey I was 1st. That's a first. RCS1000 please explain what % of remaining to count does Biden have to take in order to win? Biden's people say he'll win by 100k but the Mandy Rice Davis rule applies to that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    JohnWheatley said:

    Can Biden really win enough of the remaining votes to win Pennsylvania. Seems a big ask to me? Anybody know

    https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1324116595795517443
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,096
    China Is Blocking the WHO From Investigating the Origins of the Coronavirus

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/world/who-china-coronavirus.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1324108980403294214
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,096
    Uber, Lyft prevail to keep California workers independent

    https://apnews.com/article/legislature-elections-california-laws-economy-a64c714a9a3d3cc8272ce40c697e9b0f
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited November 2020
    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    kle4 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do.
    "Britain Trump" Donald called him.
    And up until a month ago Conservative MPs were tweeting their love and support for Donald Trump
    What, all of them? I doubt that. And even if they had, I don't see how that proves Boris is a friend of Trump, when the evidence for it seems to based on assumptions about policy and Brexit, and diplomatic nicities every nation engages in. Would Boris prefer Trump in the White House? I have no idea, maybe, some have suggested that, but 'his friend in the world gone' looks like nonsense to me, and an attempt to get more out of this election, in a British context, than is warranted.

    We're able to condemn, or praise, Boris, for his own actions without trying to wipe more of Trump's stain onto him than is justified.
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    kle4 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do.
    "Britain Trump" Donald called him.
    I don't know about you, but I don't trust Donald Trump's view on anything, including his view on Boris. Since I watch him a lot I recalll John Oliver on that specific quote of Trumps, and even as someone who detests Boris as well as Trump, he felt, and I would agree, that they are different in some very significant ways, not least as Boris is more complex.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1324108980403294214

    Perhaps he will now argue counting must stop as it has been officially declared to be won, by a supreme authority (I don't think he has a grasp on executive authority other than someone, Barr or whoever, told him he can do whatever he likes).
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    edited November 2020
    Nevada and Arizona look determined to clear things up tonight. Its a moment to be in the spotlight but you get the feeling that the authorities there don't want to be in that spotlight too long.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    Let's consider Presidents who have lost after one term.
    Hoover: lost 5.6 million votes between elections
    Carter: lost 5.3 million votes
    Bush I: lost 9.7 million votes
    Trump: gained 5.0 million votes (so far) - assuming that he will now lose.

    This election is exceedingly unusual.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    edited November 2020
    There is some serious conflict in the GOP at the moment. I said it last thread, this whole noise is being generated by Trump and the family not by a lot of the advisors and not by much of the wider party.

    PA by the way is far from over.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Maybe Biden will get 301+ after all

    It all appears to be going his way now

    Reverse of 2016 - Trump loses several states very marginally
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,872
    LostPassword said:

    Let's consider Presidents who have lost after one term.
    Hoover: lost 5.6 million votes between elections
    Carter: lost 5.3 million votes
    Bush I: lost 9.7 million votes
    Trump: gained 5.0 million votes (so far) - assuming that he will now lose.

    This election is exceedingly unusual.

    Corbyn gained millions of votes for Labour in 2017, but still lost.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    LostPassword said:

    Let's consider Presidents who have lost after one term.
    Hoover: lost 5.6 million votes between elections
    Carter: lost 5.3 million votes
    Bush I: lost 9.7 million votes
    Trump: gained 5.0 million votes (so far) - assuming that he will now lose.

    This election is exceedingly unusual.

    Donald Trump is an exceedingly unusual,,,,,,(insert)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Yokes said:

    Nevada and Arizona look determined to clear things up tonight. Its a moment to be in the spotlight but you get the feeling that the authorities there don't want to be in that spotlight too long.

    Rather cute.

    I love America, for all the problems.
  • StarryStarry Posts: 111
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1324091014450237440?s=21

    Might be a setback in their lives but it won't kill them. Thousands of deaths, an NHS filled to the rafters and a disease so rife that people cannot work from home due to illness is certainly not good for the economy.

    A political solution to an economic fallout caused to all developed nations by a temporary worldwide disease is much easier than raising the dead.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    JohnWheatley said:

    Can Biden really win enough of the remaining votes to win Pennsylvania. Seems a big ask to me? Anybody know

    By a six figure amount by the looks of it.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1324108980403294214

    Perhaps he will now argue counting must stop as it has been officially declared to be won, by a supreme authority (I don't think he has a grasp on executive authority other than someone, Barr or whoever, told him he can do whatever he likes).
    I think he only listens to his family, judging by the number of Trump family tweets
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1324120931137134592?s=20
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108200141082624

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,096
    The Chancellor is expected to announce the 80 per cent furlough scheme will continue to be on offer in any area of the UK that faces the highest level of Covid restrictions - including Tier 3 areas of England.

    Sources told The Sun that the Bank of England is planning a much bigger programme of quantitative easing than the £100 billion cash injection that it was expected to announce when it gives its latest policy update at 7am tomorrow morning.

    The Sun understands it is likely to be around £150 billion - but could be as high as £200 billion.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13111154/rishi-sunak-furlough-scheme-extension-150bn/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Time_to_Leave said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/8NewsNow/status/1324093130103205888?s=20

    Hang on, so they were planning to sit on them before? I’ll never understand America....
    Yes, no one was interested in the results there before. Weirdos.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,591
    edited November 2020
    Trump was around 1.38 at about 5am UK time on Betfair Exchange IIRC.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Andy_JS said:

    Trump was around 1.38 at about 5am UK time on Betfair Exchange IIRC.

    He hit 1.2
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2020
    Edit - Fake News (bad maths)
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    rottenborough said:

    JohnWheatley said:

    Can Biden really win enough of the remaining votes to win Pennsylvania. Seems a big ask to me? Anybody know

    https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1324116595795517443
    Seems so, Biden was very confident in his speech, 538 have it leaning Biden, and view seems to be Biden will end up somewhere north of +100.000 votes.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    You know Georgia might yet be a tipping point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,697
    https://twitter.com/cnbcpolitics/status/1324112041850884099?s=21
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    Just a note the White House has called a lid, there is infighting.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    CarlottaVance said:

    And in Pennsylvania:

    https://twitter.com/anyabike/status/1324122698260357121?s=20
    https://twitter.com/anyabike/status/1324123341146521602?s=20

    Polling triumph!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Any clue if Biden can comeback in Georgia and North Carolina?

    The Needle doesn't seem to be updating anymore for those states which is a shame.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,591
    LostPassword said:

    Let's consider Presidents who have lost after one term.
    Hoover: lost 5.6 million votes between elections
    Carter: lost 5.3 million votes
    Bush I: lost 9.7 million votes
    Trump: gained 5.0 million votes (so far) - assuming that he will now lose.

    This election is exceedingly unusual.

    It'll be interesting to see if there are any states where Trump's vote went down.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108200141082624

    He's not going to go quietly is he,,,,
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Right I'm turning in. Haven't had a lot of sleep the past 36 hours.

    Glad things stayed civil on here. Some great discussions and a brilliant place for picking up different results and sources.

    Night all.
  • muckduckmuckduck Posts: 4
    Any idea when the bookies pay out on Biden? Will it be when the networks are unanimous or when Trump has exhausted his legal options?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Any clue if Biden can comeback in Georgia and North Carolina?

    The Needle doesn't seem to be updating anymore for those states which is a shame.

    Maybe Arizona and Georgia are both waiting for Nevada to declare. Then mad rush to declare as the state that pushes Biden over the line!
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Any clue if Biden can comeback in Georgia and North Carolina?

    The Needle doesn't seem to be updating anymore for those states which is a shame.

    Georgia looks his best shot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1324114936851800065

    kle4 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    kle4 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do.
    "Britain Trump" Donald called him.
    I don't know about you, but I don't trust Donald Trump's view on anything, including his view on Boris. Since I watch him a lot I recalll John Oliver on that specific quote of Trumps, and even as someone who detests Boris as well as Trump, he felt, and I would agree, that they are different in some very significant ways, not least as Boris is more complex.
    They are very different.

    One has trademark bad hair, was born in in New York, has a poor relationship with women, a massive ego, a reputation for lying, developed a political career after finding fame on TV and actively seeds division in the nation as his key political approach.

    The other is of course Donald Trump.
    Yes, all true, but people take the superficial too far, because ultimately our countries are different, they have different styles (for all the flaws of the UK Covid response, for example, Boris has taken a very different approach), and pretending they are bosom pals I don't think it merited and comes off as trying too hard.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Mal557 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108200141082624

    He's not going to go quietly is he,,,,
    The GOP will ditch him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130
    edited November 2020
    LostPassword said:

    Let's consider Presidents who have lost after one term.
    Hoover: lost 5.6 million votes between elections
    Carter: lost 5.3 million votes
    Bush I: lost 9.7 million votes
    Trump: gained 5.0 million votes (so far) - assuming that he will now lose.

    This election is exceedingly unusual.

    Only George W Bush in 2004 got a higher voteshare than Trump has today of the Republican nominees of the past 30 years
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1324122489816027136?s=20
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Any clue if Biden can comeback in Georgia and North Carolina?

    The Needle doesn't seem to be updating anymore for those states which is a shame.

    Georgia is still very close , some votes due later. still some good areas for Biden but looks very tight. NC less so, think both camps seem to agree its going to be a close trump win.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Uber, Lyft prevail to keep California workers independent

    https://apnews.com/article/legislature-elections-california-laws-economy-a64c714a9a3d3cc8272ce40c697e9b0f

    Its a complex story.

    The law changes threatened to kill jobs all over the California economy - essentially ending a lot of "gig" working. A lot of by-the-piece journalism was threatened, for example.

    The driver for it was, as with many things, in the US, the mixing together of problems. Healthcare is tied to jobs, so jobs without healthcare are a truly horrible and a burden on society.

    Many of the big problems in the US are caused or sustained by this binding together of unrelated issues. For example, in many places the police are massively funded by fines. So going out and catching people for money is good business. This criminalises and aggravates the most vulnerable, who repay the compliment by not being fans of the Blue Line.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The Chancellor is expected to announce the 80 per cent furlough scheme will continue to be on offer in any area of the UK that faces the highest level of Covid restrictions - including Tier 3 areas of England.

    Sources told The Sun that the Bank of England is planning a much bigger programme of quantitative easing than the £100 billion cash injection that it was expected to announce when it gives its latest policy update at 7am tomorrow morning.

    The Sun understands it is likely to be around £150 billion - but could be as high as £200 billion.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13111154/rishi-sunak-furlough-scheme-extension-150bn/

    Will (eventually) push up inflation but better than negative interest rates which will cause cause massive complication in UK financial markets and threaten savers who have worked hard for their money.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    HYUFD said:

    LostPassword said:

    Let's consider Presidents who have lost after one term.
    Hoover: lost 5.6 million votes between elections
    Carter: lost 5.3 million votes
    Bush I: lost 9.7 million votes
    Trump: gained 5.0 million votes (so far) - assuming that he will now lose.

    This election is exceedingly unusual.

    Only George W Bush in 2004 got a higher voteshare than Trump has today of the Republican nominees of the past 30 years
    You don't know what Trump's vote share is yet. Suspect it will will drop at least another couple of % once California gets going.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Mal557 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108200141082624

    He's not going to go quietly is he,,,,
    I look forward to one of his giant rallies in the next week.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1324114936851800065

    kle4 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    kle4 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Johnson will be left deeply exposed now, RIP USA trade deal, it's Brexit capitulation or economic disaster with No Deal on the way. What will he choose?

    His friend in the world gone, populism rejected fairly decisively so far this year, he's a dying breed.

    The pushing of the idea of his friendship with Trump is rather overblown I think. He's said things against Trump in the past, other world leaders have praised or at least feted Trump just as much or more, because he was President of the United States and that's what you do.
    "Britain Trump" Donald called him.
    I don't know about you, but I don't trust Donald Trump's view on anything, including his view on Boris. Since I watch him a lot I recalll John Oliver on that specific quote of Trumps, and even as someone who detests Boris as well as Trump, he felt, and I would agree, that they are different in some very significant ways, not least as Boris is more complex.
    They are very different.

    One has trademark bad hair, was born in in New York, has a poor relationship with women, a massive ego, a reputation for lying, developed a political career after finding fame on TV and actively seeds division in the nation as his key political approach.

    The other is of course Donald Trump.
    Yes, all true, but people take the superficial too far, because ultimately our countries are different, they have different styles (for all the flaws of the UK Covid response, for example, Boris has taken a very different approach), and pretending they are bosom pals I don't think it merited and comes off as trying too hard.
    No one in this country actually believes it do they? It’s something they say because they are lazy and because they think the insult will sting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,872
    edited November 2020
    Just seen that Google/AP have called MI for Biden
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    LostPassword said:

    Let's consider Presidents who have lost after one term.
    Hoover: lost 5.6 million votes between elections
    Carter: lost 5.3 million votes
    Bush I: lost 9.7 million votes
    Trump: gained 5.0 million votes (so far) - assuming that he will now lose.

    This election is exceedingly unusual.

    Corbyn gained millions of votes for Labour in 2017, but still lost.
    He then lost them in 2019, Trump gained more votes today
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    alex_ said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    And in Pennsylvania:

    https://twitter.com/anyabike/status/1324122698260357121?s=20
    https://twitter.com/anyabike/status/1324123341146521602?s=20

    Polling triumph!
    There's a mistake in the tables - the Trump/Biden numbers have been swapped between the first and second table.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Mysticrose said:

    JohnWheatley said:

    Can Biden really win enough of the remaining votes to win Pennsylvania. Seems a big ask to me? Anybody know

    By a six figure amount by the looks of it.
    Biden’ s on the ground team: 100k to 200k. “Whatever figure Giuliani insists on binning, we win by more”

    I would like to have seen one of the east coast targets in the wave too, piling the pressure on WH, unfortunately understand Trump has Georgia now but North Carolina still outside hope for Biden
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,096
    CarlottaVance said:

    twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1324122489816027136?s=20

    Build Back Better is a terrible slogan.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    alex_ said:

    Mal557 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108200141082624

    He's not going to go quietly is he,,,,
    The GOP will ditch him.
    This is correct, there comes a point to leave the circus.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1324122489816027136?s=20

    Why? I mean, I'd already forgotten it was their slogan, but if you cannot borrow slogans from others in your own country you can surely do it from others.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1324122489816027136?s=20

    Why? I mean, I'd already forgotten it was their slogan, but if you cannot borrow slogans from others in your own country you can surely do it from others.
    Plagiarism!
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    FPT:
    Anabobazina said:

    CatMan said:

    rottenborough said:

    Puerto Rico voted for statehood.

    Think of all the flags they're going to have to change now!
    Making Puerto Rico a state could be a great policy for Biden.
    Sure, but having 51 stars on the US flag will just look really weird!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130
    edited November 2020
    If Biden does indeed win and given the Democrats have held the House I think we can also say No Deal Brexit is dead, there is no way Boris can risk no trade deal with the EU as well as the US, our 2 largest trading partners, especially with Covid lockdown on top as well and Biden and Pelosi will not do a deal with the UK unless the government either abandons the internal markets bill or gets an EU FTA to minimise its impact.

    So expect Boris to compromise with the EU on state aid and a FTA to be agreed in outline by Christmas with fishing kicked into the long grass for further discussions next year. A few diehard No Deal, anti lockdown Brexiteers will no doubt join Farage in his latest vehicle, Reform UK but the rest of us will move on
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1324122489816027136?s=20

    Why?

    Boris can have buildbackbetter.co.uk
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,591
    edited November 2020
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Just seen that Google/AP have called MI for Biden

    I really don't think media organisations should have the power of calling elections in the US. It should be the election authorities in each state that do it! Seems pretty basic to me. Problem is people don't have the patience to wait for the final result.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Tough times at the Black Lubyanka:

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Express/status/1324125019488727040?s=20
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,834
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Just seen that Google/AP have called MI for Biden

    I really don't think media organisations should have the power of calling elections in the US. It should be the election authorities in each state that do it! Seems pretty basic to me. Problem is people don't have the patience to wait for the final result.
    The election authorities do have the power! The electoral college is not decided by the tv networks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Pagan2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    If parties in 2024 stand on PR in their manifestos and they are able to form a government then no referendum is needed to deliver it. Just implement it.

    ALL constitutional changes should go through a referendum. It is the peoples political system it doesnt belong to politicians. I would not have supported leaving the eu because a party with it in their manifesto won just because they had a majority either.

    People vote for a party for a lot of reasons and usually dont agree with every policy, To make sweeping changes to our electoral system you absolutely need to have a specific mandate
    In our system defining what would be a constitutional issue would not always be so straightforward I suspect. I don't see what 'the people's political system' has to do with implementing electoral system changes after an election win.

    I'd be in favour of minimum turnout, perhaps a threshold above 50% for the big stuff, as many countries do, but having not had those for Sindy or Brexit I think trying it for future ones would be hard to defend.
    You think our voting system should be changed purely on the whim of a party that wins a majority because it is in their manifesto? I have no doubt if the conservatives and lib dems had both had av in their manifesto's in 2010 the result wouldnt have been much if any different and we saw how the av referendum went
    I think it would be unwise to change it that way, and would prefer a referendum, but I think if a party made it clear that they would do it without a referendum then it would be legal and acceptable, as the people would have the ability to vote in such a way to deny them a majority to take that action they clearly stated they would.

    And it would depend on the exact plan. Would they need a referendum to make local elections decided by AV or PR? Changing how PCCs are elected? Is it just on MPs?
    I don't think it should be permissible without a referendum for either personally. It's not a party political thing for me I just have a strong hatred for pr reinforced by 2010. I voted conservative that election. I would not have voted conservative however on the revised coalition manifesto, Yet my vote was counted as part of their mandate.

    How we elect our politicians is very much a question that the people should be having a say in and not because we voted for party x because we liked their economic, education and policing policies but voting systems were not enough to stop us voting for them
    I totally understand that point of view, and I think it has a lot of merit, but I think that so long as they are very clear on their intention to act in such a way, then acquisition of a majority would be sufficient. That's rather nebulous on what being sufficiently clear is, but I'd agree one cannot assume total endorsement of all manifesto points from a victory, however if it is a central promise and campaign, then people knew what would occur.

    And since I doubt any party will curtail its options by not permitting such a thing, that cautious restriction may be the best principle we can get.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited November 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Just seen that Google/AP have called MI for Biden

    I really don't think media organisations should have the power of calling elections in the US. It should be the election authorities in each state that do it! Seems pretty basic to me. Problem is people don't have the patience to wait for the final result.
    Well it can take weeks in some cases unfortunately. But they aren't calling them officially, surely, so the problem is not the media's reporting that it's called, but politicians pretending a media projection, at what might be an abitrary point in the count, is the official outcome.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851
    Andy_JS said:

    Trump was around 1.38 at about 5am UK time on Betfair Exchange IIRC.

    The most remarkable day in pb history?

    Good night everyone.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2020
    So, in summary, am I right in thinking that the situation is basically as follows:

    Biden has 270 more-or-less in the bag including NV AZ WI MI NE2, There are three scenarios from here:

    1. He misses out on PA -> 270 (not looking likely)
    2. He wins PA but nothing else -> 290, the most likely outcome
    3. He also wins GA, a coin toss -> 306

    Next in line would be NC, taking him to 321, but that's looking very unlikely.

    Is that right?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1324122489816027136?s=20

    Why? I mean, I'd already forgotten it was their slogan, but if you cannot borrow slogans from others in your own country you can surely do it from others.
    Plagiarism!
    Well the Democrats stole the Tory shade of Blue, perhaps they can make it a bilateral trade?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Just seen that Google/AP have called MI for Biden

    I really don't think media organisations should have the power of calling elections in the US. It should be the election authorities in each state that do it! Seems pretty basic to me. Problem is people don't have the patience to wait for the final result.
    Do authorities actually call it in US elections? Seems to me they put the results up, media call it, one of the candidates let opponents know they concede, and they all move on. And disco in the car park
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    Last thread headline: Biden moves to an 84% chance...
    This thread headline: Trump down to a 14% chance on Betfair...

    Net movement between threads, not much.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,238
    Yokes said:

    alex_ said:

    Mal557 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108200141082624

    He's not going to go quietly is he,,,,
    The GOP will ditch him.
    This is correct, there comes a point to leave the circus.
    And, for the first time in a while, the interests of Trump and the GOP have diverged. Even if he were to win, Trump isn't facing the voters again. He's got nothing to lose now. Just imagine. The Republican party have another appointment with the electorate in two years time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,697
    CatMan said:

    FPT:

    Anabobazina said:

    CatMan said:

    rottenborough said:

    Puerto Rico voted for statehood.

    Think of all the flags they're going to have to change now!
    Making Puerto Rico a state could be a great policy for Biden.
    Sure, but having 51 stars on the US flag will just look really weird!
    Merge the Dakotas and they won't have to change the flag.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    HYUFD said:

    If Biden does indeed win and given the Democrats have held the House I think we can also say No Deal Brexit is dead, there is no way Boris can risk no trade deal with the EU as well as the US, our 2 largest trading partners, especially with Covid lockdown on top as well and Biden and Pelosi will not do a deal with the UK unless the government either abandons the internal markets bill or gets an EU FTA to minimise its impact.

    So expect Boris to compromise with the EU on state aid and a FTA to be agreed in outline by Christmas with fishing kicked into the long grass for further discussions next year. A few diehard No Deal, anti lockdown Brexiteers will no doubt join Farage in his latest vehicle, Reform UK but the rest of us will move on

    That’s a brilliant post.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Philip_Thompson said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1324122489816027136?s=20

    Why?

    Boris can have buildbackbetter.co.uk
    It's taken.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Just seen that Google/AP have called MI for Biden

    I really don't think media organisations should have the power of calling elections in the US. It should be the election authorities in each state that do it! Seems pretty basic to me. Problem is people don't have the patience to wait for the final result.
    Calls don't have any official status. You can hardly ban networks, or indeed any random person, of predicting victory for one side or the other.

    And clearly election authorities will only ever report votes cast. So no election would be over until California finished weeks later.

  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,527
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Just seen that Google/AP have called MI for Biden

    I really don't think media organisations should have the power of calling elections in the US. It should be the election authorities in each state that do it! Seems pretty basic to me. Problem is people don't have the patience to wait for the final result.
    The official responsible for elections in Wisconsin said she won't officially declare the result until December 1st, when the EC electors are chosen.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,872
    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1324122489816027136?s=20

    Why? I mean, I'd already forgotten it was their slogan, but if you cannot borrow slogans from others in your own country you can surely do it from others.
    Plagiarism!
    Well the Democrats stole the Tory shade of Blue, perhaps they can make it a bilateral trade?
    "Sunil" means blue :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    So, in summary, am I right in thinking that the situation is basically as follows:

    Biden has 270 more-or-less in the bag including NV AZ MI NE2, There are three scenarios from here:

    1. He misses out on PA -> 270 (not looking likely)
    2. He wins PA but nothing else -> 290, the most likely outcome
    3. He also wins GA, a coin toss -> 306

    Next in line would be NC, taking him to 321, but that's looking very unlikely.

    Is that right?

    Trump should win Georgia, he is on 50% to 48% for Biden currently and Fulton county containing Atlanta, where Biden has got most votes in the state, is 95% in and the state as a whole is only 94% in
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    The_Apocalypse said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Foxy said:

    Gallowgate said:

    This applies to the right as well as the left.
    https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1324112939310264322?s=21

    One of Grandpa Joes best features is his genuine desire for consensus. Perhaps because his formative years predate the current culture war. They were of course forged in an equally divisive time of desegregation and Vietnam War protests.
    Maybe, just maybe, Biden's election is the first rays of the pre-dawn at the end of a dark time.
    Well we've had Jacinda's already, Macron is not far off, 2020s might be the end of populism.
    I wouldn’t put Jacinda and Macron in the same category, tbh.
    I suspect there's a bit of 'the good people won in both, therefore they are the same' going on.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,527
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    So, in summary, am I right in thinking that the situation is basically as follows:

    Biden has 270 more-or-less in the bag including NV AZ WI MI NE2, There are three scenarios from here:

    1. He misses out on PA -> 270 (not looking likely)
    2. He wins PA but nothing else -> 290, the most likely outcome
    3. He also wins GA, a coin toss -> 306

    Next in line would be NC, taking him to 321, but that's looking very unlikely.

    Is that right?

    The numbers are right, but is NV in the bag?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Mal557 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Any clue if Biden can comeback in Georgia and North Carolina?

    The Needle doesn't seem to be updating anymore for those states which is a shame.

    Georgia is still very close , some votes due later. still some good areas for Biden but looks very tight. NC less so, think both camps seem to agree its going to be a close trump win.
    Not saying wrong, but expert on news just had it other way round.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851
    Can I misquote Albert Einstein before signing off.

    Not everything that counts should be counted (D. Trump)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Down to 57k lead in Georgia now
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1324120931137134592?s=20

    Philadelphia just churned out a batch where he received zero votes !
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Starry said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1324091014450237440?s=21

    Might be a setback in their lives but it won't kill them. Thousands of deaths, an NHS filled to the rafters and a disease so rife that people cannot work from home due to illness is certainly not good for the economy.

    A political solution to an economic fallout caused to all developed nations by a temporary worldwide disease is much easier than raising the dead.
    Of course it will kill plenty, just like the last one
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Last thread headline: Biden moves to an 84% chance...
    This thread headline: Trump down to a 14% chance on Betfair...

    Net movement between threads, not much.

    The plan is that this forum becomes 24/7 news network, this is big news. Those headlines will soon be delivered with a whooshing sound.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    How is it these states manage to count millions of votes on election night, but take all day to count the last few hundred thousand?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    So, in summary, am I right in thinking that the situation is basically as follows:

    Biden has 270 more-or-less in the bag including NV AZ WI MI NE2, There are three scenarios from here:

    1. He misses out on PA -> 270 (not looking likely)
    2. He wins PA but nothing else -> 290, the most likely outcome
    3. He also wins GA, a coin toss -> 306

    Next in line would be NC, taking him to 321, but that's looking very unlikely.

    Is that right?

    The numbers are right, but is NV in the bag?
    If I was a betting man, here at twenty passed eleven, I would say 290.
  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 141
    CatMan said:

    FPT:

    Anabobazina said:

    CatMan said:

    rottenborough said:

    Puerto Rico voted for statehood.

    Think of all the flags they're going to have to change now!
    Making Puerto Rico a state could be a great policy for Biden.
    Sure, but having 51 stars on the US flag will just look really weird!
    Add Washington DC then.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    twitter.com/Jack_Blanchard_/status/1324122489816027136?s=20

    Build Back Better is a terrible slogan.
    I prefer Bears Beets Battlestar Galactica (as per the US Office).
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1324120931137134592?s=20

    Philadelphia just churned out a batch where he received zero votes !
    Do you think they are trolling him?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,527
    alex_ said:

    How is it these states manage to count millions of votes on election night, but take all day to count the last few hundred thousand?

    Some states, by law, are not allowed to pre-prepare the postal votes for counting (we would call it verification here) until the polls have closed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    So, in summary, am I right in thinking that the situation is basically as follows:

    Biden has 270 more-or-less in the bag including NV AZ WI MI NE2, There are three scenarios from here:

    1. He misses out on PA -> 270 (not looking likely)
    2. He wins PA but nothing else -> 290, the most likely outcome
    3. He also wins GA, a coin toss -> 306

    Next in line would be NC, taking him to 321, but that's looking very unlikely.

    Is that right?

    Yes, although we need to hang on for AZ and NV a bit I think – it's not 100%
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The UK government's apparent obsession with the idea that somehow the importance of a trade deal with the EU is dependent on a few thousand hanging chads in Nevada and Arizona is another ludicrous pieces of nonsense in the long and sorry history of Brexit self-delusion. Do they really think that Trump, Trump for heaven's sake, is going to ride to the rescue of the UK and somehow instantly produce a tremendous US trade deal (despite a Democratic-dominated House) which will compensate for the chaos of no-deal crash out in eight weeks' time?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,527
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Last thread headline: Biden moves to an 84% chance...
    This thread headline: Trump down to a 14% chance on Betfair...

    Net movement between threads, not much.

    Is OGH applying for a job at CNN?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,697
    The Express gets to the heart of the matter.

    https://twitter.com/daily_express/status/1324071389909929985?s=21
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1324120931137134592?s=20

    Philadelphia just churned out a batch where he received zero votes !
    I haven't seen that, the numbers seem to have been stuck for a while. What site are you using?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1324129928011489283

    I love this guy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,591
    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1324120931137134592?s=20

    Philadelphia just churned out a batch where he received zero votes !
    Difficult to believe if true.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    CatMan said:

    FPT:

    Anabobazina said:

    CatMan said:

    rottenborough said:

    Puerto Rico voted for statehood.

    Think of all the flags they're going to have to change now!
    Making Puerto Rico a state could be a great policy for Biden.
    Sure, but having 51 stars on the US flag will just look really weird!
    The flag has already been designed. It's hard to tell the difference at first glance.


  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    williamglenn said:

    The Express gets to the heart of the matter.

    https://twitter.com/daily_express/status/1324071389909929985?s=21

    Coz it's all been going so well up to this point.
This discussion has been closed.