If that's an "on the day number", then it's disastrous for Trump. If it's "all in", then it's amazing.
I think it's all voters, not just those on the day.
The thing is, that requires them to have sampled a representative sample of people who have already voted, and I don't see how they can guarantee they achieve that.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
They are the same trial, but I guess you could close early if you had hit sufficient patients to get statistical significance
Why do you think they're the same trial?
Because that’s the standard approach between the US and Europe these days. Single trial with recruitment from 3 geographies.
So, everything I've read on here and elsewhere tonight persuades me that Trump is going to lose, bigly.
It's not really Trump vs. Biden/Democrats/the Left. It's Trump vs. Not Trump. And Not Trump is going to win handsomely, just because enough Americans have come to their senses. They don't necessarily want Biden, or the Democrats, or the left. They just want Not Trump. A bland alternative is fine.
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
Can confirm that this news about vaccine is circulation widely officially within the NHS. Although you presumably need some pretty powerful fridges to store a vaccine at -70 degrees.
Standard -80 at any uni biology/ pharmacology dept.
Liquid nitrogen dewars go down to -190 degrees!
We got to play with the liquid nitrogen in second year experiments.
Having used it for 25 years the novelty wears off. Still like making snow in summer (ice formed on transfer hoses) though...
Did you ever play "how long can I stick my finger in the liquid nitrogen"? Probably just as well we aren't allowed to use it in schools...
Nope but very well aware of what you can and can’t get away with...
Colleague of mine was a fluorine chemist in a previous life: that is a substance where the list of things you can get away with is essentially blank.
Change to government run healthcare, is something like 70% for.
Looking at Fox News exit poll numbers, seems like America wants radical change, not just get rid of Trump.
It's the start of a 2020s leftist wave, starting I hope in the USA and ending here in 2024. We're coming back!
Biden is leftist?
He's got some leftist policies in there and compared to Trump he's a leftist absolutely.
If politicians like Biden were elected in European countries I don't think people would be calling it a leftist wave.
He is the rejection of right wing populism. I am under no doubt if he wins this starts leftism returning in Europe.
Politics in different countries don't impact one another like that. A shift leftwards in the UK or other places in Europe will happen due to trends closer to home, I am sure.
I mean, the Spanish socialists had a big increase in the first of the 2019 elections, so why does leftism have to wait for Biden to return?
If Biden wins the biggest impact here will be on Brexit and Boris Johnson especially, including the Good Friday Agreement. For the UK, this time is massive.
Nah. It will make no difference at all. Biden has little or no influence over a trade agreement which is about the only thing that might sway Johnson. And the House has already made clear its view on threatening the GFA, both Democrats and Republicans. They are the ones who hold the power on trade. In this particular instance the President is neither here nor there.
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
Can confirm that this news about vaccine is circulation widely officially within the NHS. Although you presumably need some pretty powerful fridges to store a vaccine at -70 degrees.
Standard -80 at any uni biology/ pharmacology dept.
Liquid nitrogen dewars go down to -190 degrees!
We got to play with the liquid nitrogen in second year experiments.
Having used it for 25 years the novelty wears off. Still like making snow in summer (ice formed on transfer hoses) though...
Did you ever play "how long can I stick my finger in the liquid nitrogen"? Probably just as well we aren't allowed to use it in schools...
Nope but very well aware of what you can and can’t get away with...
Colleague of mine was a fluorine chemist in a previous life: that is a substance where the list of things you can get away with is essentially blank.
I didn't realise Buddhists could actually find out about previous incarnations.
Fox and CNN poll both consistent that basically everybody made their mind up ages ago, small number change during campaign, basically nobody in the past week.
Change to government run healthcare, is something like 70% for.
Looking at Fox News exit poll numbers, seems like America wants radical change, not just get rid of Trump.
It's the start of a 2020s leftist wave, starting I hope in the USA and ending here in 2024. We're coming back!
Biden is leftist?
He's got some leftist policies in there and compared to Trump he's a leftist absolutely.
If politicians like Biden were elected in European countries I don't think people would be calling it a leftist wave.
He is the rejection of right wing populism. I am under no doubt if he wins this starts leftism returning in Europe.
Politics in different countries don't impact one another like that. A shift leftwards in the UK or other places in Europe will happen due to trends closer to home, I am sure.
I mean, the Spanish socialists had a big increase in the first of the 2019 elections, so why does leftism have to wait for Biden to return?
If Biden wins the biggest impact here will be on Brexit and Boris Johnson especially, including the Good Friday Agreement. For the UK, this time is massive.
Nah. It will make no difference at all. Biden has little or no influence over a trade agreement which is about the only thing that might sway Johnson. And the House has already made clear its view on threatening the GFA, both Democrats and Republicans. They are the ones who hold the power on trade. In this particular instance the President is neither here nor there.
Sorry but that's rubbish but I'll leave it for another day to explain. Will return to this.
Johnson though will be more than ever isolated on the world stage.
So, everything I've read on here and elsewhere tonight persuades me that Trump is going to lose, bigly.
It's not really Trump vs. Biden/Democrats/the Left. It's Trump vs. Not Trump. And Not Trump is going to win handsomely, just because enough Americans have come to their senses. They don't necessarily want Biden, or the Democrats, or the left. They just want Not Trump. A bland alternative is fine.
Pretty much.
However I do find claims by others on here that a centrist (by US standards) and right wing by global standards getting elected signals a left wing resurgence.
So, everything I've read on here and elsewhere tonight persuades me that Trump is going to lose, bigly.
It's not really Trump vs. Biden/Democrats/the Left. It's Trump vs. Not Trump. And Not Trump is going to win handsomely, just because enough Americans have come to their senses. They don't necessarily want Biden, or the Democrats, or the left. They just want Not Trump. A bland alternative is fine.
Pretty much.
As I put it, this election is no longer about policies, it's about the future of democracy and democratic institutions in the US. It's about decency and who Americans want to be. And it about how civic life is conducted.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
They are the same trial, but I guess you could close early if you had hit sufficient patients to get statistical significance
Why do you think they're the same trial?
Because that’s the standard approach between the US and Europe these days. Single trial with recruitment from 3 geographies.
Something I don’t understand. Why are you all pretending like you don’t know what the result is? Are your tenter hooks genuine? Is the excitement building to some sort of pretend explosion and happiness some sort of game?
It’s actually a cold sober business turning pledges into successful policy, landslide victory into a lasting and significant change. The next 24 hours rather ephemeral in the struggle. Like the Pomp of Edward Elgar played at the graduation, it means nothing without the circumstance of battle to come.
Change to government run healthcare, is something like 70% for.
Looking at Fox News exit poll numbers, seems like America wants radical change, not just get rid of Trump.
It's the start of a 2020s leftist wave, starting I hope in the USA and ending here in 2024. We're coming back!
Biden is leftist?
He's got some leftist policies in there and compared to Trump he's a leftist absolutely.
If politicians like Biden were elected in European countries I don't think people would be calling it a leftist wave.
He is the rejection of right wing populism. I am under no doubt if he wins this starts leftism returning in Europe.
Politics in different countries don't impact one another like that. A shift leftwards in the UK or other places in Europe will happen due to trends closer to home, I am sure.
I mean, the Spanish socialists had a big increase in the first of the 2019 elections, so why does leftism have to wait for Biden to return?
If Biden wins the biggest impact here will be on Brexit and Boris Johnson especially, including the Good Friday Agreement. For the UK, this time is massive.
Nah. It will make no difference at all. Biden has little or no influence over a trade agreement which is about the only thing that might sway Johnson. And the House has already made clear its view on threatening the GFA, both Democrats and Republicans. They are the ones who hold the power on trade. In this particular instance the President is neither here nor there.
Sorry but that's rubbish but I'll leave it for another day to explain. Will return to this.
Johnson though will be more than ever isolated on the world stage.
The world sees Johnson as a joke. A silly hopeless man trying so hard to be Winston Churchill and failing badly, but managing a pale imitation of Donald Trump.
Something I don’t understand. Why are you all pretending like you don’t know what the result is? Are your tenter hooks genuine? Is the excitement building to some sort of pretend explosion and happiness some sort of game?
It’s actually a cold sober business turning pledges into successful policy, landslide victory into a lasting and significant change. The next 24 hours rather ephemeral in the struggle. Like the Pomp of Edward Elgar played at the graduation, it means nothing without the circumstance of battle to come.
My tenterhooks are always genuine, and of course it is game. It's also still very serious.
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
Can confirm that this news about vaccine is circulation widely officially within the NHS. Although you presumably need some pretty powerful fridges to store a vaccine at -70 degrees.
Standard -80 at any uni biology/ pharmacology dept.
Liquid nitrogen dewars go down to -190 degrees!
We got to play with the liquid nitrogen in second year experiments.
Having used it for 25 years the novelty wears off. Still like making snow in summer (ice formed on transfer hoses) though...
Did you ever play "how long can I stick my finger in the liquid nitrogen"? Probably just as well we aren't allowed to use it in schools...
Nope but very well aware of what you can and can’t get away with...
Colleague of mine was a fluorine chemist in a previous life: that is a substance where the list of things you can get away with is essentially blank.
I know my limits and HF is beyond them. Previous colleague used to use it in reactions at high pressure and temperature in sealed vessels. I made myself very scarce...
Something I don’t understand. Why are you all pretending like you don’t know what the result is? Are your tenter hooks genuine? Is the excitement building to some sort of pretend explosion and happiness some sort of game?
It’s actually a cold sober business turning pledges into successful policy, landslide victory into a lasting and significant change. The next 24 hours rather ephemeral in the struggle. Like the Pomp of Edward Elgar played at the graduation, it means nothing without the circumstance of battle to come.
Because we bet on these things. The clue is in the site name.
Change to government run healthcare, is something like 70% for.
Looking at Fox News exit poll numbers, seems like America wants radical change, not just get rid of Trump.
It's the start of a 2020s leftist wave, starting I hope in the USA and ending here in 2024. We're coming back!
Biden is leftist?
He's got some leftist policies in there and compared to Trump he's a leftist absolutely.
If politicians like Biden were elected in European countries I don't think people would be calling it a leftist wave.
He is the rejection of right wing populism. I am under no doubt if he wins this starts leftism returning in Europe.
Politics in different countries don't impact one another like that. A shift leftwards in the UK or other places in Europe will happen due to trends closer to home, I am sure.
I mean, the Spanish socialists had a big increase in the first of the 2019 elections, so why does leftism have to wait for Biden to return?
If Biden wins the biggest impact here will be on Brexit and Boris Johnson especially, including the Good Friday Agreement. For the UK, this time is massive.
Nah. It will make no difference at all. Biden has little or no influence over a trade agreement which is about the only thing that might sway Johnson. And the House has already made clear its view on threatening the GFA, both Democrats and Republicans. They are the ones who hold the power on trade. In this particular instance the President is neither here nor there.
Sorry but that's rubbish but I'll leave it for another day to explain. Will return to this.
Johnson though will be more than ever isolated on the world stage.
Its not rubbish at all. Tell me where it is wrong. Congress is already firmly opposed to anything that threatens the GFA and that is a bi-partizan position. It is Congress who has the power when it comes to trade deals. Whether it is Biden or Trump in office makes no difference to that. This is just wishful thinking on your part.
Something I don’t understand. Why are you all pretending like you don’t know what the result is? Are your tenter hooks genuine? Is the excitement building to some sort of pretend explosion and happiness some sort of game?
Because the betting markets. If those were aligned with the polls there wouldn't be any drama.
Change to government run healthcare, is something like 70% for.
Looking at Fox News exit poll numbers, seems like America wants radical change, not just get rid of Trump.
It's the start of a 2020s leftist wave, starting I hope in the USA and ending here in 2024. We're coming back!
Biden is leftist?
He's got some leftist policies in there and compared to Trump he's a leftist absolutely.
If politicians like Biden were elected in European countries I don't think people would be calling it a leftist wave.
He is the rejection of right wing populism. I am under no doubt if he wins this starts leftism returning in Europe.
Politics in different countries don't impact one another like that. A shift leftwards in the UK or other places in Europe will happen due to trends closer to home, I am sure.
I mean, the Spanish socialists had a big increase in the first of the 2019 elections, so why does leftism have to wait for Biden to return?
If Biden wins the biggest impact here will be on Brexit and Boris Johnson especially, including the Good Friday Agreement. For the UK, this time is massive.
Nah. It will make no difference at all. Biden has little or no influence over a trade agreement which is about the only thing that might sway Johnson. And the House has already made clear its view on threatening the GFA, both Democrats and Republicans. They are the ones who hold the power on trade. In this particular instance the President is neither here nor there.
Sorry but that's rubbish but I'll leave it for another day to explain. Will return to this.
Johnson though will be more than ever isolated on the world stage.
Its not rubbish at all. Tell me where it is wrong.
The DeKalb and Greene numbers are "OK" for the President. He's got big leads, but they're down on 2016, and rural turnout is simply not up that much compared to what we'd expect.
CNN exit poll gender split of 53 women to 47% men good for Biden. Latest Quinnipiac Florida poll has Trump with 11% lead amongst men but trailing 20% amongst women
Why hate Trump? The guy roped decent conservative standards and philosophy to himself, and jumped into a dark ocean. Democrats and liberals should erect statues to remember him by.
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
Can confirm that this news about vaccine is circulation widely officially within the NHS. Although you presumably need some pretty powerful fridges to store a vaccine at -70 degrees.
Standard -80 at any uni biology/ pharmacology dept.
Liquid nitrogen dewars go down to -190 degrees!
We got to play with the liquid nitrogen in second year experiments.
Having used it for 25 years the novelty wears off. Still like making snow in summer (ice formed on transfer hoses) though...
Did you ever play "how long can I stick my finger in the liquid nitrogen"? Probably just as well we aren't allowed to use it in schools...
Nope but very well aware of what you can and can’t get away with...
Colleague of mine was a fluorine chemist in a previous life: that is a substance where the list of things you can get away with is essentially blank.
I know my limits and HF is beyond them. Previous colleague used to use it in reactions at high pressure and temperature in sealed vessels. I made myself very scarce...
There was a brief discussion of chlorine trifluoride the other day on one of the threads, a substance that makes fluorine itself look tame.
Something I don’t understand. Why are you all pretending like you don’t know what the result is? Are your tenter hooks genuine? Is the excitement building to some sort of pretend explosion and happiness some sort of game?
Because the betting markets. If those were aligned with the polls there wouldn't be any drama.
Both the polls and the betting markets have been known to be wrong at the same time in recent history.
CNN reporting partial results from first three deep red counties in Indiana/Kentucky. In each case with a majority of the vote counted, Trump's margin over Biden has fallen quite noticeably compared with that over Clinton in 2016. However, given the disparity between postal/early in person voting/ election day voting, if one part of that is being counted more than the rest that pattern might be misleading.
Comments
Non-college down a lot
The party of Romney, McCain etc made absolutely no efforts whatsoever...
But they're not the same trial. The UK trial started in May, planned to have 12390 participants, details here:
https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04400838?cond=Covid19&intr=Vaccine&phase=2&draw=3
The US trial started three months later, planned to have 30,000 participants, protocol here:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/ctr-med-7111/D8110C00001/52bec400-80f6-4c1b-8791-0483923d0867/c8070a4e-6a9d-46f9-8c32-cece903592b9/D8110C00001_CSP-v2.pdf
It's not really Trump vs. Biden/Democrats/the Left. It's Trump vs. Not Trump. And Not Trump is going to win handsomely, just because enough Americans have come to their senses. They don't necessarily want Biden, or the Democrats, or the left. They just want Not Trump. A bland alternative is fine.
Is this over the whole US?
Broward +800 in last 20 mins
Now Palm Beach - Reps + 17,000 today but Dems won the last 20 mins by 300
I reckon we're 32 or 33 minutes out from getting something.
Trump 1.93 / 2.06
Biden 1.96 / 1.97
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170366129
https://twitter.com/mollygiles2015/status/1323759287861202944?s=21
https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=bro
Johnson though will be more than ever isolated on the world stage.
"There were tax exemptions for religious figures and, to some extent, teachers and doctors."
Sounds like a good guy to me!
Attorney General (R) Rokita currently leads his challenger Weinzapfel (D) 73-27
However I do find claims by others on here that a centrist (by US standards) and right wing by global standards getting elected signals a left wing resurgence.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1323764426697330691?s=20
Some states report mail in first, others report on the day first.
I RECKON SHE SPOILT HER BALLOT
Trump 5,460
Biden 2,371
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
Is the excitement building to some sort of pretend explosion and happiness some sort of game?
It’s actually a cold sober business turning pledges into successful policy, landslide victory into a lasting and significant change. The next 24 hours rather ephemeral in the struggle. Like the Pomp of Edward Elgar played at the graduation, it means nothing without the circumstance of battle to come.
https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1323766600802197511?s=20
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html