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WH2020: The spreads latest and tonight’s PB election zoom gathering – politicalbetting.com

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  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    Whites down a lot
    Non-college down a lot
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    LOL. CNN saying that pre-Trump the Republican party was making great attempts to reach into non-white voters.

    The party of Romney, McCain etc made absolutely no efforts whatsoever...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CNN Breaking News: "53% of voters are female..."

    If that's an "on the day number", then it's disastrous for Trump. If it's "all in", then it's amazing.
    I think it's all voters, not just those on the day.
    The thing is, that requires them to have sampled a representative sample of people who have already voted, and I don't see how they can guarantee they achieve that.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Charles said:

    Chris said:

    Charles said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

    Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
    Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
    They are the same trial, but I guess you could close early if you had hit sufficient patients to get statistical significance
    Why do you think they're the same trial?
    Because that’s the standard approach between the US and Europe these days. Single trial with recruitment from 3 geographies.
    Thanks for explaining.

    But they're not the same trial. The UK trial started in May, planned to have 12390 participants, details here:
    https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04400838?cond=Covid19&intr=Vaccine&phase=2&draw=3

    The US trial started three months later, planned to have 30,000 participants, protocol here:
    https://s3.amazonaws.com/ctr-med-7111/D8110C00001/52bec400-80f6-4c1b-8791-0483923d0867/c8070a4e-6a9d-46f9-8c32-cece903592b9/D8110C00001_CSP-v2.pdf

  • Biden is back in his basement....
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390
    So, everything I've read on here and elsewhere tonight persuades me that Trump is going to lose, bigly.

    It's not really Trump vs. Biden/Democrats/the Left. It's Trump vs. Not Trump. And Not Trump is going to win handsomely, just because enough Americans have come to their senses. They don't necessarily want Biden, or the Democrats, or the left. They just want Not Trump. A bland alternative is fine.
  • MikeL said:

    Whites down a lot
    Non-college down a lot

    Trump down and out.
  • MikeL said:

    Whites down a lot
    Non-college down a lot

    Not good for Trump at all.

    Is this over the whole US?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Have to say the demographics shown in the CNN exit poll do look good for Biden.

    They look even better in the Fox ones
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    MikeL said:

    Whites down a lot
    Non-college down a lot

    Bad for the Donald...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,700

    Have to say the demographics shown in the CNN exit poll do look good for Biden.

    Some of the demographic numbers seem hard to believe but they look very good for Biden.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    CNN Breaking News: "53% of voters are female..."

    So same as 2016 then
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    kyf_100 said:

    What channel should I be watching. Can somebody link a good one?

    Not Fox, unless you like endless ads for prescription drugs and the talking heads sharing animal videos.
    The ads aren’t an advert for the intelligence of the audience, for sure.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,481
    Night folks, have fun. As we should all make some sort of prediction, I'll say narrow Trump victory.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Seemed to me that Biden was getting a bit too close to crowds today...?
  • alex_ said:

    Charles said:

    Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!
    Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
    Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
    The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
    Can confirm that this news about vaccine is circulation widely officially within the NHS. Although you presumably need some pretty powerful fridges to store a vaccine at -70 degrees.
    Standard -80 at any uni biology/ pharmacology dept.
    Liquid nitrogen dewars go down to -190 degrees!
    We got to play with the liquid nitrogen in second year experiments.
    Having used it for 25 years the novelty wears off. Still like making snow in summer (ice formed on transfer hoses) though...
    Did you ever play "how long can I stick my finger in the liquid nitrogen"?
    Probably just as well we aren't allowed to use it in schools...
    Nope but very well aware of what you can and can’t get away with...
    Colleague of mine was a fluorine chemist in a previous life: that is a substance where the list of things you can get away with is essentially blank.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    edited November 2020
    Dems finishing fast in FL.

    Broward +800 in last 20 mins

    Now Palm Beach - Reps + 17,000 today but Dems won the last 20 mins by 300
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    I am paying exactly zero attention to the exits and awaiting the first REAL data from Indiana and Kentucky.

    I reckon we're 32 or 33 minutes out from getting something.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Trump doesn't look like a man who thinks he is even with a chance. He looked totally defeated when he did his media piece at campaign HQ.

    He’s known that for a while, but hoped something would turn up. It didn’t
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited November 2020
    Fox news "exit poll" wasn't quite an exit poll, it was 120k interviews.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    North Carolina:

    Trump 1.93 / 2.06
    Biden 1.96 / 1.97

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170366129
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    I will be surprised if this comes down to Florida.
  • What channel should I be watching. Can somebody link a good one?

    https://edition.cnn.com/specials/live-cnni-uk
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    Mal557 said:

    CNN Breaking News: "53% of voters are female..."

    So same as 2016 then
    Though females tilting more Biden as I recall
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Over 30% of US voters aren’t confident that the votes will be counted accurately
  • kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Change to government run healthcare, is something like 70% for.

    Looking at Fox News exit poll numbers, seems like America wants radical change, not just get rid of Trump.

    It's the start of a 2020s leftist wave, starting I hope in the USA and ending here in 2024. We're coming back!
    Biden is leftist?
    He's got some leftist policies in there and compared to Trump he's a leftist absolutely.
    If politicians like Biden were elected in European countries I don't think people would be calling it a leftist wave.
    He is the rejection of right wing populism. I am under no doubt if he wins this starts leftism returning in Europe.
    Politics in different countries don't impact one another like that. A shift leftwards in the UK or other places in Europe will happen due to trends closer to home, I am sure.

    I mean, the Spanish socialists had a big increase in the first of the 2019 elections, so why does leftism have to wait for Biden to return?
    If Biden wins the biggest impact here will be on Brexit and Boris Johnson especially, including the Good Friday Agreement. For the UK, this time is massive.
    Nah. It will make no difference at all. Biden has little or no influence over a trade agreement which is about the only thing that might sway Johnson. And the House has already made clear its view on threatening the GFA, both Democrats and Republicans. They are the ones who hold the power on trade. In this particular instance the President is neither here nor there.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    rcs1000 said:

    In an hour, watch for St Joseph County, Indiana.

    It was 47% apiece to Clinton and Trump in 2020.

    Any update on this?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    alex_ said:

    Charles said:

    Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!
    Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
    Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
    The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
    Can confirm that this news about vaccine is circulation widely officially within the NHS. Although you presumably need some pretty powerful fridges to store a vaccine at -70 degrees.
    Standard -80 at any uni biology/ pharmacology dept.
    Liquid nitrogen dewars go down to -190 degrees!
    We got to play with the liquid nitrogen in second year experiments.
    Having used it for 25 years the novelty wears off. Still like making snow in summer (ice formed on transfer hoses) though...
    Did you ever play "how long can I stick my finger in the liquid nitrogen"?
    Probably just as well we aren't allowed to use it in schools...
    Nope but very well aware of what you can and can’t get away with...
    Colleague of mine was a fluorine chemist in a previous life: that is a substance where the list of things you can get away with is essentially blank.
    I didn't realise Buddhists could actually find out about previous incarnations.
  • Fox and CNN poll both consistent that basically everybody made their mind up ages ago, small number change during campaign, basically nobody in the past week.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    On the day in Bro was 5k up for Dems now more than doubled

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=bro
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Change to government run healthcare, is something like 70% for.

    Looking at Fox News exit poll numbers, seems like America wants radical change, not just get rid of Trump.

    It's the start of a 2020s leftist wave, starting I hope in the USA and ending here in 2024. We're coming back!
    Biden is leftist?
    He's got some leftist policies in there and compared to Trump he's a leftist absolutely.
    If politicians like Biden were elected in European countries I don't think people would be calling it a leftist wave.
    He is the rejection of right wing populism. I am under no doubt if he wins this starts leftism returning in Europe.
    Politics in different countries don't impact one another like that. A shift leftwards in the UK or other places in Europe will happen due to trends closer to home, I am sure.

    I mean, the Spanish socialists had a big increase in the first of the 2019 elections, so why does leftism have to wait for Biden to return?
    If Biden wins the biggest impact here will be on Brexit and Boris Johnson especially, including the Good Friday Agreement. For the UK, this time is massive.
    Nah. It will make no difference at all. Biden has little or no influence over a trade agreement which is about the only thing that might sway Johnson. And the House has already made clear its view on threatening the GFA, both Democrats and Republicans. They are the ones who hold the power on trade. In this particular instance the President is neither here nor there.
    Sorry but that's rubbish but I'll leave it for another day to explain. Will return to this.

    Johnson though will be more than ever isolated on the world stage.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    edited November 2020
    Cuyahoga at 66.4% with 50 mins to go - should end just above 68% maybe touch more.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dems in Georgia @2.46 looks a good bet I think
  • RobD said:

    Change to government run healthcare, is something like 70% for.

    Looking at Fox News exit poll numbers, seems like America wants radical change, not just get rid of Trump.

    It's the start of a 2020s leftist wave, starting I hope in the USA and ending here in 2024. We're coming back!
    Biden is leftist?
    He's got some leftist policies in there and compared to Trump he's a leftist absolutely.
    Genghis Khan is a leftist copmpared with Trump...
    According to Wiki:
    "There were tax exemptions for religious figures and, to some extent, teachers and doctors."
    Sounds like a good guy to me!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    FIRST NUMBERS ARE OUT FROM INDIANA!

    Attorney General (R) Rokita currently leads his challenger Weinzapfel (D) 73-27

  • weird how its still about 1.5/3 on betfair to win...the mood music seems pretty bad for trump
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited November 2020

    So, everything I've read on here and elsewhere tonight persuades me that Trump is going to lose, bigly.

    It's not really Trump vs. Biden/Democrats/the Left. It's Trump vs. Not Trump. And Not Trump is going to win handsomely, just because enough Americans have come to their senses. They don't necessarily want Biden, or the Democrats, or the left. They just want Not Trump. A bland alternative is fine.

    Pretty much.

    However I do find claims by others on here that a centrist (by US standards) and right wing by global standards getting elected signals a left wing resurgence.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    IanB2 said:

    Trump doesn't look like a man who thinks he is even with a chance. He looked totally defeated when he did his media piece at campaign HQ.

    He’s known that for a while, but hoped something would turn up. It didn’t
    Trump thought he had lost in 2016 on the night. Not exactly a great predictor....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    eristdoof said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In an hour, watch for St Joseph County, Indiana.

    It was 47% apiece to Clinton and Trump in 2020.

    Any update on this?
    Not yet... we'll get the first number at 35-40 past the hour
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Chameleon said:

    So, everything I've read on here and elsewhere tonight persuades me that Trump is going to lose, bigly.

    It's not really Trump vs. Biden/Democrats/the Left. It's Trump vs. Not Trump. And Not Trump is going to win handsomely, just because enough Americans have come to their senses. They don't necessarily want Biden, or the Democrats, or the left. They just want Not Trump. A bland alternative is fine.

    Pretty much.
    As I put it, this election is no longer about policies, it's about the future of democracy and democratic institutions in the US. It's about decency and who Americans want to be. And it about how civic life is conducted.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    weird how its still about 1.5/3 on betfair to win...the mood music seems pretty bad for trump

    That's because there is no real data (except for Dixville Notch and Millsfield yet)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited November 2020
    Note, early reporting will be massively biased towards all the mail-in and early voting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Sounds like FL is going to be an absolute nail-biter.
    2.8 was pretty good odds.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Greene County
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Green County Indiana in. Trump down 5% so far but very early.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Note, early reporting will be massively biased towards all the mail-in and early voting.

    So the opposite of what we were expecting? Might show Biden well ahead on the night with Trump clawing back a little later.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    Looks like Betfair Sports have completely removed their market on a tie. Maybe too many people were placing bets on it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    edited November 2020
    6% swing to Biden in the first KY county
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    FIRST NUMBERS ARE OUT FROM INDIANA!

    Attorney General (R) Rokita currently leads his challenger Weinzapfel (D) 73-27

    AG election in 2016 was Republican 62 - Democrat 38
  • Chris said:

    Charles said:

    Chris said:

    Charles said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

    Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
    Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
    They are the same trial, but I guess you could close early if you had hit sufficient patients to get statistical significance
    Why do you think they're the same trial?
    Because that’s the standard approach between the US and Europe these days. Single trial with recruitment from 3 geographies.
    Thanks for explaining.

    But they're not the same trial. The UK trial started in May, planned to have 12390 participants, details here:
    https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04400838?cond=Covid19&intr=Vaccine&phase=2&draw=3

    The US trial started three months later, planned to have 30,000 participants, protocol here:
    https://s3.amazonaws.com/ctr-med-7111/D8110C00001/52bec400-80f6-4c1b-8791-0483923d0867/c8070a4e-6a9d-46f9-8c32-cece903592b9/D8110C00001_CSP-v2.pdf

    Are participants in trials sworn to secrecy?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    Note, early reporting will be massively biased towards all the mail-in and early voting.

    Not true.

    Some states report mail in first, others report on the day first.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    And still kind of tempted by Texas at 4.
  • Correct for the CNN bloke to highlight Vigo County, Indiana as a place to watch. Closes midnight UK. Possible Biden win here?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Dems really on move in Broward and Melanas County.

    I RECKON SHE SPOILT HER BALLOT
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited November 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    Note, early reporting will be massively biased towards all the mail-in and early voting.

    Not true.

    Some states report mail in first, others report on the day first.
    Only going on what the news channel are saying.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    Current votes:

    Trump 5,460
    Biden 2,371

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Note, early reporting will be massively biased towards all the mail-in and early voting.

    It's much more muddled than that. Some will favour blue others red. There are links on CNN etc.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Nigelb said:

    Sounds like FL is going to be an absolute nail-biter.
    2.8 was pretty good odds.
    I had a nibble. It would have been rude not to at those odds.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Something I don’t understand. Why are you all pretending like you don’t know what the result is? Are your tenter hooks genuine?
    Is the excitement building to some sort of pretend explosion and happiness some sort of game?

    It’s actually a cold sober business turning pledges into successful policy, landslide victory into a lasting and significant change. The next 24 hours rather ephemeral in the struggle. Like the Pomp of Edward Elgar played at the graduation, it means nothing without the circumstance of battle to come.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    rcs1000 said:

    Note, early reporting will be massively biased towards all the mail-in and early voting.

    Not true.

    Some states report mail in first, others report on the day first.
    Only going on what the news channel are saying.
    No rcs1000 is correct
  • Trump matching his 2016 in a county in KT.
  • kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Change to government run healthcare, is something like 70% for.

    Looking at Fox News exit poll numbers, seems like America wants radical change, not just get rid of Trump.

    It's the start of a 2020s leftist wave, starting I hope in the USA and ending here in 2024. We're coming back!
    Biden is leftist?
    He's got some leftist policies in there and compared to Trump he's a leftist absolutely.
    If politicians like Biden were elected in European countries I don't think people would be calling it a leftist wave.
    He is the rejection of right wing populism. I am under no doubt if he wins this starts leftism returning in Europe.
    Politics in different countries don't impact one another like that. A shift leftwards in the UK or other places in Europe will happen due to trends closer to home, I am sure.

    I mean, the Spanish socialists had a big increase in the first of the 2019 elections, so why does leftism have to wait for Biden to return?
    If Biden wins the biggest impact here will be on Brexit and Boris Johnson especially, including the Good Friday Agreement. For the UK, this time is massive.
    Nah. It will make no difference at all. Biden has little or no influence over a trade agreement which is about the only thing that might sway Johnson. And the House has already made clear its view on threatening the GFA, both Democrats and Republicans. They are the ones who hold the power on trade. In this particular instance the President is neither here nor there.
    Sorry but that's rubbish but I'll leave it for another day to explain. Will return to this.

    Johnson though will be more than ever isolated on the world stage.
    The world sees Johnson as a joke. A silly hopeless man trying so hard to be Winston Churchill and failing badly, but managing a pale imitation of Donald Trump.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Greene County is 52% reported, implying turnout of 15,400, up about 10% on 2016.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    Andy_JS said:
    in that one county clinton got a total of 2929 votes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    gealbhan said:

    Something I don’t understand. Why are you all pretending like you don’t know what the result is? Are your tenter hooks genuine?
    Is the excitement building to some sort of pretend explosion and happiness some sort of game?

    It’s actually a cold sober business turning pledges into successful policy, landslide victory into a lasting and significant change. The next 24 hours rather ephemeral in the struggle. Like the Pomp of Edward Elgar played at the graduation, it means nothing without the circumstance of battle to come.

    My tenterhooks are always genuine, and of course it is game. It's also still very serious.
  • I like beer
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459

    alex_ said:

    Charles said:

    Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!
    Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
    Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
    The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
    Can confirm that this news about vaccine is circulation widely officially within the NHS. Although you presumably need some pretty powerful fridges to store a vaccine at -70 degrees.
    Standard -80 at any uni biology/ pharmacology dept.
    Liquid nitrogen dewars go down to -190 degrees!
    We got to play with the liquid nitrogen in second year experiments.
    Having used it for 25 years the novelty wears off. Still like making snow in summer (ice formed on transfer hoses) though...
    Did you ever play "how long can I stick my finger in the liquid nitrogen"?
    Probably just as well we aren't allowed to use it in schools...
    Nope but very well aware of what you can and can’t get away with...
    Colleague of mine was a fluorine chemist in a previous life: that is a substance where the list of things you can get away with is essentially blank.
    I know my limits and HF is beyond them. Previous colleague used to use it in reactions at high pressure and temperature in sealed vessels. I made myself very scarce...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Rural turnout in Indiana appears to be up about 10-13%.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    gealbhan said:

    Something I don’t understand. Why are you all pretending like you don’t know what the result is? Are your tenter hooks genuine?
    Is the excitement building to some sort of pretend explosion and happiness some sort of game?

    It’s actually a cold sober business turning pledges into successful policy, landslide victory into a lasting and significant change. The next 24 hours rather ephemeral in the struggle. Like the Pomp of Edward Elgar played at the graduation, it means nothing without the circumstance of battle to come.

    Because we bet on these things. The clue is in the site name.
  • kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Change to government run healthcare, is something like 70% for.

    Looking at Fox News exit poll numbers, seems like America wants radical change, not just get rid of Trump.

    It's the start of a 2020s leftist wave, starting I hope in the USA and ending here in 2024. We're coming back!
    Biden is leftist?
    He's got some leftist policies in there and compared to Trump he's a leftist absolutely.
    If politicians like Biden were elected in European countries I don't think people would be calling it a leftist wave.
    He is the rejection of right wing populism. I am under no doubt if he wins this starts leftism returning in Europe.
    Politics in different countries don't impact one another like that. A shift leftwards in the UK or other places in Europe will happen due to trends closer to home, I am sure.

    I mean, the Spanish socialists had a big increase in the first of the 2019 elections, so why does leftism have to wait for Biden to return?
    If Biden wins the biggest impact here will be on Brexit and Boris Johnson especially, including the Good Friday Agreement. For the UK, this time is massive.
    Nah. It will make no difference at all. Biden has little or no influence over a trade agreement which is about the only thing that might sway Johnson. And the House has already made clear its view on threatening the GFA, both Democrats and Republicans. They are the ones who hold the power on trade. In this particular instance the President is neither here nor there.
    Sorry but that's rubbish but I'll leave it for another day to explain. Will return to this.

    Johnson though will be more than ever isolated on the world stage.
    Its not rubbish at all. Tell me where it is wrong. Congress is already firmly opposed to anything that threatens the GFA and that is a bi-partizan position. It is Congress who has the power when it comes to trade deals. Whether it is Biden or Trump in office makes no difference to that. This is just wishful thinking on your part.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    gealbhan said:

    Something I don’t understand. Why are you all pretending like you don’t know what the result is? Are your tenter hooks genuine?
    Is the excitement building to some sort of pretend explosion and happiness some sort of game?

    Because the betting markets. If those were aligned with the polls there wouldn't be any drama.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    rcs1000 said:

    Rural turnout in Indiana appears to be up about 10-13%.

    Isnt turnout overall expected to be up 18%? ie 160m
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Change to government run healthcare, is something like 70% for.

    Looking at Fox News exit poll numbers, seems like America wants radical change, not just get rid of Trump.

    It's the start of a 2020s leftist wave, starting I hope in the USA and ending here in 2024. We're coming back!
    Biden is leftist?
    He's got some leftist policies in there and compared to Trump he's a leftist absolutely.
    If politicians like Biden were elected in European countries I don't think people would be calling it a leftist wave.
    He is the rejection of right wing populism. I am under no doubt if he wins this starts leftism returning in Europe.
    Politics in different countries don't impact one another like that. A shift leftwards in the UK or other places in Europe will happen due to trends closer to home, I am sure.

    I mean, the Spanish socialists had a big increase in the first of the 2019 elections, so why does leftism have to wait for Biden to return?
    If Biden wins the biggest impact here will be on Brexit and Boris Johnson especially, including the Good Friday Agreement. For the UK, this time is massive.
    Nah. It will make no difference at all. Biden has little or no influence over a trade agreement which is about the only thing that might sway Johnson. And the House has already made clear its view on threatening the GFA, both Democrats and Republicans. They are the ones who hold the power on trade. In this particular instance the President is neither here nor there.
    Sorry but that's rubbish but I'll leave it for another day to explain. Will return to this.

    Johnson though will be more than ever isolated on the world stage.
    Its not rubbish at all. Tell me where it is wrong.
    Not now. Focused on the results and markets.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Is that a U-turn? They didn't change anything from what was initially announced.
  • IN - one county, but Trump down 10 points on 2016.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    The DeKalb and Greene numbers are "OK" for the President. He's got big leads, but they're down on 2016, and rural turnout is simply not up that much compared to what we'd expect.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Bidens latest senior moment is quite a moment.....
  • CNN exit poll gender split of 53 women to 47% men good for Biden. Latest Quinnipiac Florida poll has Trump with 11% lead amongst men but trailing 20% amongst women
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Biden leading in Anderson County, Kentucky. Trump previously won that county. (Disclaimer: 19% in.)
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    They seem pretty confident that there will actually be a winner when they wake up!
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Why hate Trump? The guy roped decent conservative standards and philosophy to himself, and jumped into a dark ocean. Democrats and liberals should erect statues to remember him by.
  • alex_ said:

    Charles said:

    Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!
    Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
    Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
    The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
    Can confirm that this news about vaccine is circulation widely officially within the NHS. Although you presumably need some pretty powerful fridges to store a vaccine at -70 degrees.
    Standard -80 at any uni biology/ pharmacology dept.
    Liquid nitrogen dewars go down to -190 degrees!
    We got to play with the liquid nitrogen in second year experiments.
    Having used it for 25 years the novelty wears off. Still like making snow in summer (ice formed on transfer hoses) though...
    Did you ever play "how long can I stick my finger in the liquid nitrogen"?
    Probably just as well we aren't allowed to use it in schools...
    Nope but very well aware of what you can and can’t get away with...
    Colleague of mine was a fluorine chemist in a previous life: that is a substance where the list of things you can get away with is essentially blank.
    I know my limits and HF is beyond them. Previous colleague used to use it in reactions at high pressure and temperature in sealed vessels. I made myself very scarce...
    There was a brief discussion of chlorine trifluoride the other day on one of the threads, a substance that makes fluorine itself look tame.
  • Floater said:

    Bidens latest senior moment is quite a moment.....

    Going to have 4 years of it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    rcs1000 said:

    Rural turnout in Indiana appears to be up about 10-13%.

    Isnt turnout overall expected to be up 18%? ie 160m
    Yes. So these rural numbers are NOT good for the President.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    Greene County is next door to Monroe County which voted for Clinton in 2016. Not sure how useful that information is.

    https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Anderson County Kentucky a huge swing to Biden so far but I can't tell if that's the early voting
  • On the one hand I’m a bit jealous of the granular data, but on the other hand I feel the yanks miss out on returning officer theatre.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Is that like in "We're looking really good all over the country for votes, but not finding enough of them"?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Jay and Stueben Counties now coming in in Indiana. Bot showing good Trump leads.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    Andrew said:

    gealbhan said:

    Something I don’t understand. Why are you all pretending like you don’t know what the result is? Are your tenter hooks genuine?
    Is the excitement building to some sort of pretend explosion and happiness some sort of game?

    Because the betting markets. If those were aligned with the polls there wouldn't be any drama.
    Both the polls and the betting markets have been known to be wrong at the same time in recent history.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Rural turnout in Indiana appears to be up about 10-13%.

    Isnt turnout overall expected to be up 18%? ie 160m
    Yes. So these rural numbers are NOT good for the President.
    It's very very very early but I think we could be looking at a landslide
  • Anything happening?
  • CNN reporting partial results from first three deep red counties in Indiana/Kentucky. In each case with a majority of the vote counted, Trump's margin over Biden has fallen quite noticeably compared with that over Clinton in 2016. However, given the disparity between postal/early in person voting/ election day voting, if one part of that is being counted more than the rest that pattern might be misleading.
This discussion has been closed.