None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I think it's also targeted at letting us out in December. Infections now seem to be flat * so there's no reason why a lockdown shouldn't suppress it significantly.
* fingers crossed. I remember thinking that about Spain a couple of weeks ago
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?
I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
From what I can see, the GOP vote in a lot of the mid-sized counties Trump carried comfortably is down quite a bit. Polk the gap seems down a lot. Only 7500* reported to have voted on the day so far. Of course, that may reflect incomplete reporting rather than reality.
* 8000 now. With just 3 hours of voting left, the GOP is just 4300 ahead on the party vote, whereas Trump carried Polk by 40k in 2016
If you're right, then Biden available at 6/4 must represent great value!
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?
I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
From what I can see, the GOP vote in a lot of the mid-sized counties Trump carried comfortably is down quite a bit. Polk the gap seems down a lot. Only 7500* reported to have voted on the day so far. Of course, that may reflect incomplete reporting rather than reality.
* 8000 now. With just 3 hours of voting left, the GOP is just 4300 ahead on the party vote, whereas Trump carried Polk by 40k in 2016
Polk County is a bit "Southern Democrat" is it not. There were more registered Dems there than GOP in 2016.
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.
I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.
The numbers so far are neither good not bad or Trump or Biden in Florida but I'd rather be Biden than Trump right now from what I am seeing.
Sure it's great to have your vote up in small counties but they are small.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
Dry ice isn’t very high tech. And from what I’ve read the vaccine lasts around a day at room temp ?
I thought the assumption was that the Pfizer vaccine would have to be given at larger vaccination centres, not local surgeries.
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
We'll know within 48 hours of unblinding because it will financially sensitive news that will be need to be released to shareholders.
Am I misreading this? Does this not include the Phase 3 trial data?
“We confirm the MHRA’s (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine,” an AstraZeneca spokesman said. In rolling reviews, regulators are able to see clinical data in real time and have dialogue with drug makers on manufacturing processes and trials to accelerate the approval process.
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.
I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.
I have been one of the most bearish on Biden on PB.
But I find this increasingly hard to argue with.
Broward has only ~10% on the day.
Sumter has ~8%.
Pin a little higher but still only ~16%.
There is less than three hours until the polls close.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
What reasons do they adduce?
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
Given the vaccines apparently seem to make it less serious, but don't stop you catching it, he might be right. Anyway, he's not going to get it soon anyway.
We don't know any of this yet, because NONE OF THE VACCINE TRIALS HAS BEEN UNBLINDED YET.
Surely in this context you can have a pretty good guess because the rest of the population is unwittingly acting as a control? If your vaccine works your cohort of vaccinees plus controls ought to have detectably better hospitalisation rates than the population at large. You aren't blinded as to who is in the trial at all vs who isn't.
Thanks for that. What's the official PB choice of US Network? Fox, CNN, or another?
Politically I prefer CNN (Fox is relentlessly pro-Trump) but CNN seems to have some buffering issues.
I can easily fill in the buffering....Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad.
CNN have become as bad as Fox in terms of their utter relentless focus on Trump. Literally no other news gets reported some days, if he has tweeted something particular offensive.
Thanks for that. What's the official PB choice of US Network? Fox, CNN, or another?
Politically I prefer CNN (Fox is relentlessly pro-Trump) but CNN seems to have some buffering issues.
I can easily fill in the buffering....Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad.
CNN have become as bad as Fox in terms of their utter relentless focus on Trump. Literally no other news gets reported some days, if he has tweeted something particular offensive.
I don't think Nick was after 'other news' tonight.
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
What reasons do they adduce?
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
Given the vaccines apparently seem to make it less serious, but don't stop you catching it, he might be right. Anyway, he's not going to get it soon anyway.
We don't know any of this yet, because NONE OF THE VACCINE TRIALS HAS BEEN UNBLINDED YET.
Surely in this context you can have a pretty good guess because the rest of the population is unwittingly acting as a control? If your vaccine works your cohort of vaccinees plus controls ought to have detectably better hospitalisation rates than the population at large. You aren't blinded as to who is in the trial at all vs who isn't.
Unfortunately vaccine trial volunteers are nowhere near representative of the population at large. It's clear their infection rates are smaller anyway, or we'd already have results from several of these trials.
CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?
It really seems like a case of 2 + 2 = 5 to me but hey.
Re. the vaccine, the most important thing in terms of bringing this ghastly business to a close is that the public have confidence. Therefore a safe and effective vaccine is essential. Herd immunity will only come about if there is substantial take up.
I don't often side with the FDA but they're absolutely right in my opinion to be stringent. We do not want to see a repeat of the 1976 swine flu disaster.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?
It had seemed to me that we were reaching peak of infections. The government had put so much by their Tier system. It looked like it was beginning to work then out of nowhere a lockdown is announced based on some dodgy graphs. I could not see the logic.
My friend was simply told that the lockdown was to prevent the Country going mad when the vaccine was announced.
CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.
Their exit polls aren't what see as exit polls. No bong of Big Ben and the computer predicts. CNN exit poll is 3hrs of deliberate click-baiting....coming up after the break more info from the exit poll.....how did left handed African American Women who like ice dancing see Biden choice of sports jacket....after this break, fantastic new information from our exit poll...this time, it will be this time, they tell us something useful....oh its how Mexican's see Trump choice of wall placement locations.
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.
I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.
I have been one of the most bearish on Biden on PB.
But I find this increasingly hard to argue with.
Broward has only ~10% on the day.
Sumter has ~8%.
Pin a little higher but still only ~16%.
There is less than three hours until the polls close.
Looking at the Sumpter figures with not much more to come in at all now, If NPA break 60/40 for Biden I estimate that gives him about 34% of the vote, Clinton got 29% in 2016. I don't know NPAs will break that way but it seems a fair estimate.so it does seem Bidens doing fairly well in the County of the Village.
CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.
CNN are liars. What we will get at 10 is some detail of the polling like soccer mums are voting in this way or people with less than 2 legs have voted that way. They keep this up for hours. I am not sure if it is illegal for them to give any kind of forecast when the polls are still open but they don't. It is one of the most annoying channels I have ever come across.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?
It had seemed to me that we were reaching peak of infections. The government had put so much by their Tier system. It looked like it was beginning to work then out of nowhere a lockdown is announced based on some dodgy graphs. I could not see the logic.
My friend was simply told that the lockdown was to prevent the Country going mad when the vaccine was announced.
I think it was announced because of the projection bed capacity would be hit, not because of the deaths/day chart.
Let's hope there is some good news on this front regardless of why the lockdown happened.
Do we set any store by the Betfair state markets....Dems now fav in NC</blockquote
Yes, I've been looking at this. Of the key states, NC has the largest movement from Dem 1.82 to 1.97 from yesterday. NC is my largest state bet and I'm tempted to add to my Biden position.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?
There's a theory going around that the government has to go into heavy lockdown prior to any vaccine announcement, as otherwise everyone would just party like shit and get infected before they get injected.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?
It had seemed to me that we were reaching peak of infections. The government had put so much by their Tier system. It looked like it was beginning to work then out of nowhere a lockdown is announced based on some dodgy graphs. I could not see the logic.
My friend was simply told that the lockdown was to prevent the Country going mad when the vaccine was announced.
I'm sorry but this is nonsense. It's not 'out of the blue.' I can't be bothered to go into this right now because it's election night but please go and read up on the data fed to the Quad group, regardless of whether you agree with it. The sharp increase in hospitalisations was critical. A friend of mine working in ICU says they are now at capacity and those on critical support are in their 40's.
It had far more to do with the NHS than to do with an imminent vaccine announcement creating a stampede of willing volunteers descending on their local GPs from housing estates up and down the land.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?
There's a theory going around that the government has to go into heavy lockdown prior to any vaccine announcement, as otherwise everyone would just party like shit and get infected before they get injected.
Not my view, but it's widely held.
Hm, given vaccination is a multi-month affair, that might happen regardless.
CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.
Their exit polls aren't what see as exit polls. No bong of Big Ben and the computer predicts. CNN exit poll is 3hrs of deliberate click-baiting....coming up after the break more info from the exit poll.....how did left handed African American Women who like ice dancing see Biden choice of sports jacket....after this break, fantastic new information from our exit poll...this time, it will be this time, they tell us something useful....oh its how Mexican's see Trump choice of wall placement locations.
Sorry I hadn't seen this before making the same point. A truly awful channel.
Thanks for that. What's the official PB choice of US Network? Fox, CNN, or another?
Politically I prefer CNN (Fox is relentlessly pro-Trump) but CNN seems to have some buffering issues.
No buffering issues with CNN if watching on TV! (Virgin Channel 607). Apart from the election coverage, I quite like their "30 seconds of calm" slot each advertising break.
CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.
CNN are liars. What we will get at 10 is some detail of the polling like soccer mums are voting in this way or people with less than 2 legs have voted that way. They keep this up for hours. I am not sure if it is illegal for them to give any kind of forecast when the polls are still open but they don't. It is one of the most annoying channels I have ever come across.
The CNN 'exit polls' at 10pm will not provide any detail of how people voted. They may provide detail of what people thought were the big issues, main concerns etc, by demographic.
No solid news until 12 midnight likely projections for Indiana, Kentucky - if these are not made quickly for Trump, he is up the road.
Away from the election, a petition has been started to get the government to publish the details of the PHE model that was used on Saturday to justify National Lockdown 2.0 and which claimed 4,000 dead a day by end of the month.
CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.
Their exit polls aren't what see as exit polls. No bong of Big Ben and the computer predicts. CNN exit poll is 3hrs of deliberate click-baiting....coming up after the break more info from the exit poll.....how did left handed African American Women who like ice dancing see Biden choice of sports jacket....after this break, fantastic new information from our exit poll...this time, it will be this time, they tell us something useful....oh its how Mexican's see Trump choice of wall placement locations.
Sorry I hadn't seen this before making the same point. A truly awful channel.
Can we just have Dimbleby et al. to do a UK version of the US results?
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
We'll know within 48 hours of unblinding because it will financially sensitive news that will be need to be released to shareholders.
Am I misreading this? Does this not include the Phase 3 trial data?
“We confirm the MHRA’s (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine,” an AstraZeneca spokesman said. In rolling reviews, regulators are able to see clinical data in real time and have dialogue with drug makers on manufacturing processes and trials to accelerate the approval process.
CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.
CNN are liars. What we will get at 10 is some detail of the polling like soccer mums are voting in this way or people with less than 2 legs have voted that way. They keep this up for hours. I am not sure if it is illegal for them to give any kind of forecast when the polls are still open but they don't. It is one of the most annoying channels I have ever come across.
If veterans with one leg are voting Biden then it's a landslide frankly.
CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.
Their exit polls aren't what see as exit polls. No bong of Big Ben and the computer predicts. CNN exit poll is 3hrs of deliberate click-baiting....coming up after the break more info from the exit poll.....how did left handed African American Women who like ice dancing see Biden choice of sports jacket....after this break, fantastic new information from our exit poll...this time, it will be this time, they tell us something useful....oh its how Mexican's see Trump choice of wall placement locations.
Sorry I hadn't seen this before making the same point. A truly awful channel.
Can we just have Dimbleby et al. to do a UK version of the US results?
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?
There's a theory going around that the government has to go into heavy lockdown prior to any vaccine announcement, as otherwise everyone would just party like shit and get infected before they get injected.
Not my view, but it's widely held.
Hm, given vaccination is a multi-month affair, that might happen regardless.
A Multi-month affair, sounds like typical lockdown ;-)
Quick question - Why didn't Trump bring up Biden's opposition to the death penalty in the campaign ? If you're running on getting your base out that's an obvious fault line to exploit.
There's a belief that it loses your more than it gains if you're GOPer.
An overwhelming majority of death penalty supporters were voting GOP anyway, but might put off floating voters.
You've gone from over 80% support for the death penalty in the 1990s to barely over 50% now.
It also draws attention to Biden's Catholicism. He isn't a Godless heathen. The death penalty is a huge potential in Trumps "pro-life" voting bloc. So it has been de-emphasised to the point of being erased.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?
There's a theory going around that the government has to go into heavy lockdown prior to any vaccine announcement, as otherwise everyone would just party like shit and get infected before they get injected.
Not my view, but it's widely held.
Hm, given vaccination is a multi-month affair, that might happen regardless.
A Multi-month affair, sounds like typical lockdown ;-)
But only correct that it is the loyal Tory voters get the first batch of vaccines.
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
What reasons do they adduce?
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
Given the vaccines apparently seem to make it less serious, but don't stop you catching it, he might be right. Anyway, he's not going to get it soon anyway.
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
What reasons do they adduce?
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?
It had seemed to me that we were reaching peak of infections. The government had put so much by their Tier system. It looked like it was beginning to work then out of nowhere a lockdown is announced based on some dodgy graphs. I could not see the logic.
My friend was simply told that the lockdown was to prevent the Country going mad when the vaccine was announced.
I'm sorry but this is nonsense. It's not 'out of the blue.' I can't be bothered to go into this right now because it's election night but please go and read up on the data fed to the Quad group, regardless of whether you agree with it. The sharp increase in hospitalisations was critical. A friend of mine working in ICU says they are now at capacity and those on critical support are in their 40's.
It had far more to do with the NHS than to do with an imminent vaccine announcement creating a stampede of willing volunteers descending on their local GPs from housing estates up and down the land.
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.
I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.
I have been one of the most bearish on Biden on PB.
But I find this increasingly hard to argue with.
Broward has only ~10% on the day.
Sumter has ~8%.
Pin a little higher but still only ~16%.
There is less than three hours until the polls close.
Surfing through the medium-sized counties Trump won in 2016, there seems to be a recurring pattern - overall the vote is up some, but based on just party registration votes, Dem-registered voters are out performing Hillary's total 2016 vote (without their share of NPA), whereas GOP-registered voters are underperforming Trump's 2016 tally by 10-20%. And some of the small counties on the Georgia border are set to flip from Trump to Biden.
I am feeling fairly good about Biden's chances in FL.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?
It had seemed to me that we were reaching peak of infections. The government had put so much by their Tier system. It looked like it was beginning to work then out of nowhere a lockdown is announced based on some dodgy graphs. I could not see the logic.
My friend was simply told that the lockdown was to prevent the Country going mad when the vaccine was announced.
I'm sorry but this is nonsense. It's not 'out of the blue.' I can't be bothered to go into this right now because it's election night but please go and read up on the data fed to the Quad group, regardless of whether you agree with it. The sharp increase in hospitalisations was critical. A friend of mine working in ICU says they are now at capacity and those on critical support are in their 40's.
It had far more to do with the NHS than to do with an imminent vaccine announcement creating a stampede of willing volunteers descending on their local GPs from housing estates up and down the land.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?
It had seemed to me that we were reaching peak of infections. The government had put so much by their Tier system. It looked like it was beginning to work then out of nowhere a lockdown is announced based on some dodgy graphs. I could not see the logic.
My friend was simply told that the lockdown was to prevent the Country going mad when the vaccine was announced.
I'm sorry but this is nonsense. It's not 'out of the blue.' I can't be bothered to go into this right now because it's election night but please go and read up on the data fed to the Quad group, regardless of whether you agree with it. The sharp increase in hospitalisations was critical. A friend of mine working in ICU says they are now at capacity and those on critical support are in their 40's.
It had far more to do with the NHS than to do with an imminent vaccine announcement creating a stampede of willing volunteers descending on their local GPs from housing estates up and down the land.
I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.
Japes.
How long do you hang your pheasant?
That wasn't to me but a good 10 days.
And I LOVE the sound of Casino Royale's recipe.
It does sound nice. We'vbe been experimenting with grouse breast braised in a pan with beetroot added near the end, served with red cabbage. Same sort of earthy/sweet quality to go with the game.
Comments
* fingers crossed. I remember thinking that about Spain a couple of weeks ago
Atalanta = Hannibal
https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1323734620547043328
Sure it's great to have your vote up in small counties but they are small.
Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.
“We confirm the MHRA’s (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine,” an AstraZeneca spokesman said. In rolling reviews, regulators are able to see clinical data in real time and have dialogue with drug makers on manufacturing processes and trials to accelerate the approval process.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-vaccin/britain-starts-accelerated-review-for-astrazenecas-potential-covid-19-vaccine-idUKKBN27H1BD
How do I tell him
https://twitter.com/keendawgSSG/status/1323732235158126592
But I find this increasingly hard to argue with.
Broward has only ~10% on the day.
Sumter has ~8%.
Pin a little higher but still only ~16%.
There is less than three hours until the polls close.
CNN have become as bad as Fox in terms of their utter relentless focus on Trump. Literally no other news gets reported some days, if he has tweeted something particular offensive.
Re. the vaccine, the most important thing in terms of bringing this ghastly business to a close is that the public have confidence. Therefore a safe and effective vaccine is essential. Herd immunity will only come about if there is substantial take up.
I don't often side with the FDA but they're absolutely right in my opinion to be stringent. We do not want to see a repeat of the 1976 swine flu disaster.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/long-shadow-1976-swine-flu-vaccine-fiasco-180961994/
My friend was simply told that the lockdown was to prevent the Country going mad when the vaccine was announced.
Half price beer tomorrow so on soft drinks and Coffee tonight for the Zoom
Have I missed anything significant?
Let's hope there is some good news on this front regardless of why the lockdown happened.
Voters will be "Furious"
Not my view, but it's widely held.
It had far more to do with the NHS than to do with an imminent vaccine announcement creating a stampede of willing volunteers descending on their local GPs from housing estates up and down the land.
It's a bit mean of Virgin only to ship it in SD. I put up with it but it's like watching the telly through greaseproof paper.
No solid news until 12 midnight likely projections for Indiana, Kentucky - if these are not made quickly for Trump, he is up the road.
https://www.change.org/p/boris-johnson-publish-the-modelling-which-states-there-will-be-4-000-deaths-a-day-from-covid-19
Before today 40%
Today so far 23%
Running total 63%
The death penalty is a huge potential in Trumps "pro-life" voting bloc. So it has been de-emphasised to the point of being erased.
Trumps winning
That is not the analysis we need
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/dominic-raab-refuses-to-deny-possibility-of-tier-4-covid-restrictions
Within 24 hours a lockdown was announced
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7JX8D1Kb88
I am feeling fairly good about Biden's chances in FL.
Look, no offence but I can't do this right now. Things are warming up across the pond.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8Q-sRdV7SY
That's bad news for Trump?
“By the time this is over, no one will admit to having supported...”
By my reckoning when you allocate Non Dems/GOP he is doing worse than 2016.
Here
https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin
Here
https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=bro
and in almost all the Counties reporting live
What am i missing?
I am about to bet on JB for Florida what are the reasons not to??
Only on PB could such a statement render a man orgasmic.