Unfortunately, I have to work for a living so won't be joining the PB Zoom meeting but have a fantastic and successful night and morning playing the markets.
There's money to be made (and lost as well of course).
One thing I'm quite sure of is that the various vax companies would have released far more and more positive data earlier had the US election not been on.
Unfortunately, I have to work for a living so won't be joining the PB Zoom meeting but have a fantastic and successful night and morning playing the markets.
There's money to be made (and lost as well of course).
I have to work, too. Haven’t yet decided whether to stay up anyway.
If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?
It's a nice idea but I can't see myself tracking various websites (inc. PB), twitter feeds, watching CNN and zooming all at the same time, so I shall give zoom a miss but have fun!
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
In 1936, the Literary Digest poll famously suggested Alf Landon would win 57-43 in the popular vote and a landslide in the EC.
This led H L Mencken to declare that the Republicans ‘could beat him [Roosevelt] with a Chinaman.’
Perhaps they should have tried. Even given the incredible level of racism of America in the 1930s it could hardly have been a worse thumping than they got - 46 states to 2 and 523-8 in the Electoral College.
I am very much hoping that tonight Trafalgar ends by looking even stupider than the Literary Digest did, and for the same reasons.
If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?
I hope not. I think most of the serious chat will be on PB. That way everyone will have a say and it will be in writing for the record and to scroll back.
The Zoom meeting will probably be a bit chaotic and I may have to mute it occasionally if it gets too out of hand like a noisy nursery.
It will be a chance to put faces to names. Please change your real name to your PB name and mute except when you are speaking. It's a bit of an experiment.
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
Evening all! Seems like the FL result is going to be illuminating, if Trump hangs on it could be a late one. And some inconsiderate idiot (that will be me) organised a Teams meeting at work tomorrow morning.
If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?
I hope not. I think most of the serious chat will be on PB. That way everyone will have a say and it will be in writing for the record and to scroll back.
The Zoom meeting will probably be a bit chaotic and I may have to mute it occasionally if it gets too out of hand like a noisy nursery.
It will be a chance to put faces to names. Please change your real name to your PB name and mute except when you are speaking. It's a bit of an experiment.
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare including details of how to store the vaccine at minus 70. Over 85s and front line staff will be first. First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.
I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.
Minus 70! You sure about that? I’m out of touch now, but I think it highly unlikely that any surgery has the kit to reach that sort of temperature.
I may have mentioned this before but a friend of mine is chief pharmacist for one of the health trusts. He has already spoken of the fact that the information he is being given is that the vaccine will be in two or three jabs, with the jabs needing to be prepared in a medium at the point of delivery and being kept at -70 (he actually said -80) degrees. He was very dubious about the ability of our current health care infrastructure to deliver a viable mass vaccination campaign under those circumstances.
On this point, is this not where the 7 'Mass Vaccination Centres' come in? I thought the idea was to vaccinate at those rather than GP surgeries?
Imagine a plane over Anfield with a banner saying Boris supports the Toffees
Of course you couldn't do the same with Man U, because all the supporters are in London.
On another football note, I wonder if the way to get some of the reluctants in Liverpool to volunteer is to give them a saliva test on the way into a home game at Anfield - which they'll be allowed to attend if negative.
Not only would it get them tested, they'd do their very best not to catch it in the week prior.
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
What reasons do they adduce?
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
In 1936, the Literary Digest poll famously suggested Alf Landon would win 57-43 in the popular vote and a landslide in the EC.
This led H L Mencken to declare that the Republicans ‘could beat him [Roosevelt] with a Chinaman.’
Perhaps they should have tried. Even given the incredible level of racism of America in the 1930s it could hardly have been a worse thumping than they got - 46 states to 2 and 523-8 in the Electoral College.
I am very much hoping that tonight Trafalgar ends by looking even stupider than the Literary Digest did, and for the same reasons.
I'd not excuse these historical comments, and condemnation should be the first thought. Sometimes though there was simply an expression of the day that was clearly offensive, but wasn't meaningly so. I'd suggest that this quote is of that sort.
All (or nearly all, and of whatever race) of our ancestors were racist. We can't dismiss everything they said because of that.
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
There may well be two vaccines by December, one which is much easier to store
The Cowboys are the Dallas American Football team in the NFL and this season they are crap beyond words. Jerry Jones is their owner and reviled in much of US society.
PS Philadelphia usually has a good football team, the Eagles, but they are also crap this season. The Cowboys and the Eagles are in the same Division and are fierce rivals.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
What reasons do they adduce?
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
You wait until they release the 5G 'update', then we will all be slaves...
If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?
It's a nice idea but I can't see myself tracking various websites (inc. PB), twitter feeds, watching CNN and zooming all at the same time, so I shall give zoom a miss but have fun!
I'm much the same will be following CNN as well, i much prefer their coverage to the other networks, but I'll keep PB open to see reactions as the results start coming in
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
What reasons do they adduce?
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
You wait until they release the 5G 'update', then we will all be slaves...
It causes mass memory loss. We’ll spend our days asking ‘who are we? Who are we?’
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
What reasons do they adduce?
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
Wait till they find they need to have had it to travel abroad.
The Cowboys are the Dallas American Football team in the NFL and this season they are crap beyond words. Jerry Jones is their own and reviled in much of US society.
PS Philadelphia usually has a good football team, the Eagles, but they are also crap this season. The Cowboys and the Eagles are in the same Division and are fierce rivals.
The Cowboys are not last in the division though...
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
What reasons do they adduce?
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
Given the vaccines apparently seem to make it less serious, but don't stop you catching it, he might be right. Anyway, he's not going to get it soon anyway.
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
What reasons do they adduce?
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
Given the vaccines apparently seem to make it less serious, but don't stop you catching it, he might be right. Anyway, he's not going to get it soon anyway.
We don't know any of this yet, because NONE OF THE VACCINE TRIALS HAS BEEN UNBLINDED YET.
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
Dry ice isn’t very high tech. And from what I’ve read the vaccine lasts around a day at room temp ?
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?
I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
Quick question - Why didn't Trump bring up Biden's opposition to the death penalty in the campaign ? If you're running on getting your base out that's an obvious fault line to exploit.
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
Dry ice isn’t very high tech. And from what I’ve read the vaccine lasts around a day at room temp ?
The flu jab also needs to be kept very cold, doesn't it? And that doesn't have that many problems.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
Why would the UK wait if it has met UK requirements?
Looking at the current Pinealls data and assuming A) GOP and Dem vote 100% in alignment with party registration in both 2016 and 2020 and 2) Trump and Biden get an identical proportion of Unaffilaited and other (36.5% and 40% respectively) then Biden is currently 110 votes ahead.
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.
Quick question - Why didn't Trump bring up Biden's opposition to the death penalty in the campaign ? If you're running on getting your base out that's an obvious fault line to exploit.
There's a belief that it loses your more than it gains if you're GOPer.
An overwhelming majority of death penalty supporters were voting GOP anyway, but might put off floating voters.
You've gone from over 80% support for the death penalty in the 1990s to barely over 50% now.
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?
I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
From what I can see, the GOP vote in a lot of the mid-sized counties Trump carried comfortably is down quite a bit. Polk the gap seems down a lot. Only 7500* reported to have voted on the day so far. Of course, that may reflect incomplete reporting rather than reality.
* 8000 now. With just 3 hours of voting left, the GOP is just 4300 ahead on the party vote, whereas Trump carried Polk by 40k in 2016
I thought one of the advantages of the AZ vaccine was that it didn't require very cold storage, but just ordinary cold storage. Maybe I'm thinking of the Pfizer one.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.
I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
The mismatch with the forecasting models is extraordinary. YouGov's MRP forecasts a mean of 382, 95% confidence range 314 to 412.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
The rising case load in the UK is great for getting vaccine data!
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?
I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
The GOP share in Sumter has been trending DOWNWARDS since about 1500 GMT. At a glacial pace, sure, about 0.01 points per hour, but downward nevertheless.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?
I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
From what I can see, the GOP vote in a lot of the mid-sized counties Trump carried comfortably is down quite a bit. Polk the gap seems down a lot. Only 7500* reported to have voted on the day so far. Of course, that may reflect incomplete reporting rather than reality.
* 8000 now. With just 3 hours of voting left, the GOP is just 4300 ahead on the party vote, whereas Trump carried Polk by 40k in 2016
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
Why would the UK wait if it has met UK requirements?
Comments
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Unfortunately, I have to work for a living so won't be joining the PB Zoom meeting but have a fantastic and successful night and morning playing the markets.
There's money to be made (and lost as well of course).
Haven’t yet decided whether to stay up anyway.
See you on the other side.
Arf
This led H L Mencken to declare that the Republicans ‘could beat him [Roosevelt] with a Chinaman.’
Perhaps they should have tried. Even given the incredible level of racism of America in the 1930s it could hardly have been a worse thumping than they got - 46 states to 2 and 523-8 in the Electoral College.
I am very much hoping that tonight Trafalgar ends by looking even stupider than the Literary Digest did, and for the same reasons.
The Zoom meeting will probably be a bit chaotic and I may have to mute it occasionally if it gets too out of hand like a noisy nursery.
It will be a chance to put faces to names. Please change your real name to your PB name and mute except when you are speaking. It's a bit of an experiment.
Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
On another football note, I wonder if the way to get some of the reluctants in Liverpool to volunteer is to give them a saliva test on the way into a home game at Anfield - which they'll be allowed to attend if negative.
Not only would it get them tested, they'd do their very best not to catch it in the week prior.
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
All (or nearly all, and of whatever race) of our ancestors were racist. We can't dismiss everything they said because of that.
Hopefully I'll wake up to be greeted by good news.
New Zealand, BC, Queensland. May the run continue!
PS Philadelphia usually has a good football team, the Eagles, but they are also crap this season. The Cowboys and the Eagles are in the same Division and are fierce rivals.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
The NFC East is the 2020 of divisions in the NFL.
I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.
Japes.
And from what I’ve read the vaccine lasts around a day at room temp ?
I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
If you're running on getting your base out that's an obvious fault line to exploit.
A) GOP and Dem vote 100% in alignment with party registration in both 2016 and 2020
and
2) Trump and Biden get an identical proportion of Unaffilaited and other (36.5% and 40% respectively) then Biden is currently 110 votes ahead.
Trump won by 5500 in 2016
And I LOVE the sound of Casino Royale's recipe.
An overwhelming majority of death penalty supporters were voting GOP anyway, but might put off floating voters.
You've gone from over 80% support for the death penalty in the 1990s to barely over 50% now.
* 8000 now. With just 3 hours of voting left, the GOP is just 4300 ahead on the party vote, whereas Trump carried Polk by 40k in 2016
This I cannot get my head around.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2004/oct/16/pressandpublishing.conservativeparty