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WH2020: The spreads latest and tonight’s PB election zoom gathering – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited November 2020 in General
imageWH2020: The spreads latest and tonight’s PB election zoom gathering – politicalbetting.com

The Zoom meeting will start just before midnight and is being hosted by Barnesian. Click this linkhttps://us02web.zoom.us/j/2694321666

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?
  • 2nd like Big Don.
  • If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?

    No, I'll be here, editing PB until 5ish.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,894
    Evening again all :)

    Unfortunately, I have to work for a living so won't be joining the PB Zoom meeting but have a fantastic and successful night and morning playing the markets.

    There's money to be made (and lost as well of course).
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
    Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    All data needs to be posted on here - very hard to take in data verbally on Zoom.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    One thing I'm quite sure of is that the various vax companies would have released far more and more positive data earlier had the US election not been on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    stodge said:

    Evening again all :)

    Unfortunately, I have to work for a living so won't be joining the PB Zoom meeting but have a fantastic and successful night and morning playing the markets.

    There's money to be made (and lost as well of course).

    I have to work, too.
    Haven’t yet decided whether to stay up anyway.

    See you on the other side. :smile:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685

    If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?

    It's a nice idea but I can't see myself tracking various websites (inc. PB), twitter feeds, watching CNN and zooming all at the same time, so I shall give zoom a miss but have fun!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,894
    edited November 2020

    It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
    Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.
    Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    stodge said:

    It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
    Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.
    Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
    I would guess 5% will refuse
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    The geographically challenged Americans put the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East along with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles do not like the Cowboys.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    In 1936, the Literary Digest poll famously suggested Alf Landon would win 57-43 in the popular vote and a landslide in the EC.

    This led H L Mencken to declare that the Republicans ‘could beat him [Roosevelt] with a Chinaman.’

    Perhaps they should have tried. Even given the incredible level of racism of America in the 1930s it could hardly have been a worse thumping than they got - 46 states to 2 and 523-8 in the Electoral College.

    I am very much hoping that tonight Trafalgar ends by looking even stupider than the Literary Digest did, and for the same reasons.
  • tlg86 said:

    The geographically challenged Americans put the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East along with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles do not like the Cowboys.
    Thank you.
  • Imagine a plane over Anfield with a banner saying Boris supports the Toffees
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,603

    If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?

    I hope not. I think most of the serious chat will be on PB. That way everyone will have a say and it will be in writing for the record and to scroll back.

    The Zoom meeting will probably be a bit chaotic and I may have to mute it occasionally if it gets too out of hand like a noisy nursery.

    It will be a chance to put faces to names. Please change your real name to your PB name and mute except when you are speaking. It's a bit of an experiment.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,883
    stodge said:

    It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
    Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.
    Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
    What reasons do they adduce?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Like flying a "Boris loves Man U" banner round Liverpool
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 257
    Evening all! Seems like the FL result is going to be illuminating, if Trump hangs on it could be a late one. And some inconsiderate idiot (that will be me) organised a Teams meeting at work tomorrow morning.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Two stacks loaded up onto Betfair. Quite where it's heading yet I'm not sure.
  • Imagine a plane over Anfield with a banner saying Boris supports the Toffees
    Pulpstar said:

    Like flying a "Boris loves Man U" banner round Liverpool
    Cheers.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    Can you explain the context?

    Tim B could explain it...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    Pulpstar said:
    Sorry to be dense - what does it mean?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Pulpstar said:

    Like flying a "Boris loves Man U" banner round Liverpool
    Hard to imagine that could make the Scousers hate him more than they already do.
  • Barnesian said:

    If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?

    I hope not. I think most of the serious chat will be on PB. That way everyone will have a say and it will be in writing for the record and to scroll back.

    The Zoom meeting will probably be a bit chaotic and I may have to mute it occasionally if it gets too out of hand like a noisy nursery.

    It will be a chance to put faces to names. Please change your real name to your PB name and mute except when you are speaking. It's a bit of an experiment.
    You haven't invited Donald have you?
  • Scott_xP said:
    He thought the sign outside said erection?
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Via Twitter - Congresswoman Gwen Moore (D) of Milwaukee projects turnout in the city will reach 89% as opposed to 61% in 2016.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Scott_xP said:
    @Sunil_Prasannan you don’t have a vote. You should indulge your practices AWAY from a polling booth anyway...
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Pulpstar said:
    Is Farage in the plane again? Is it going to crash again?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    edited November 2020
    Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!
    Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
    Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
  • It would be nice to see a landslide, rcp polls hopefully crap
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare including details of how to store the vaccine at minus 70. Over 85s and front line staff will be first. First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.

    I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.

    Minus 70! You sure about that? I’m out of touch now, but I think it highly unlikely that any surgery has the kit to reach that sort of temperature.
    I may have mentioned this before but a friend of mine is chief pharmacist for one of the health trusts. He has already spoken of the fact that the information he is being given is that the vaccine will be in two or three jabs, with the jabs needing to be prepared in a medium at the point of delivery and being kept at -70 (he actually said -80) degrees. He was very dubious about the ability of our current health care infrastructure to deliver a viable mass vaccination campaign under those circumstances.
    On this point, is this not where the 7 'Mass Vaccination Centres' come in? I thought the idea was to vaccinate at those rather than GP surgeries?

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/10/07/britain-prepares-to-roll-out-a-covid-19-vaccine
    I hadn't heard about that. It seems a surprisingly sensible way to go.
    It does indeed.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,680

    Imagine a plane over Anfield with a banner saying Boris supports the Toffees
    Of course you couldn't do the same with Man U, because all the supporters are in London.


    On another football note, I wonder if the way to get some of the reluctants in Liverpool to volunteer is to give them a saliva test on the way into a home game at Anfield - which they'll be allowed to attend if negative.

    Not only would it get them tested, they'd do their very best not to catch it in the week prior.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,894
    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:



    Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.

    What reasons do they adduce?
    There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".

    Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".

  • eristdoof said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Is Farage in the plane again? Is it going to crash again?
    Pulpstar said:
    Apart from anything else unless you have a powerful zoom it looks like it says vs not ♥s
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    stodge said:

    It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
    Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.
    Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
    I would guess 5% will refuse
    Polls suggest 20-25%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?

    I'll be on the site, but not the Zoom.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,894


    He thought the sign outside said erection?

    Maybe he confused the polling station with the sperm bank - we've all done it :)

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    ydoethur said:

    In 1936, the Literary Digest poll famously suggested Alf Landon would win 57-43 in the popular vote and a landslide in the EC.

    This led H L Mencken to declare that the Republicans ‘could beat him [Roosevelt] with a Chinaman.’

    Perhaps they should have tried. Even given the incredible level of racism of America in the 1930s it could hardly have been a worse thumping than they got - 46 states to 2 and 523-8 in the Electoral College.

    I am very much hoping that tonight Trafalgar ends by looking even stupider than the Literary Digest did, and for the same reasons.

    I'd not excuse these historical comments, and condemnation should be the first thought. Sometimes though there was simply an expression of the day that was clearly offensive, but wasn't meaningly so. I'd suggest that this quote is of that sort.

    All (or nearly all, and of whatever race) of our ancestors were racist. We can't dismiss everything they said because of that.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!
    Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
    Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
    There may well be two vaccines by December, one which is much easier to store
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    After a few days of hospital R not following case R the correlation is back which is a relief.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    stodge said:


    He thought the sign outside said erection?

    Maybe he confused the polling station with the sperm bank - we've all done it :)

    ‘When I said put it in the slot, sir, that’s not quite what I meant.’
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    I'll be in the land of nod by midnight. For those staying up, have an enjoyable and profitable night.

    Hopefully I'll wake up to be greeted by good news.

    New Zealand, BC, Queensland. May the run continue!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited November 2020

    Pulpstar said:
    Sorry to be dense - what does it mean?
    The Cowboys are the Dallas American Football team in the NFL and this season they are crap beyond words. Jerry Jones is their owner and reviled in much of US society.

    PS Philadelphia usually has a good football team, the Eagles, but they are also crap this season. The Cowboys and the Eagles are in the same Division and are fierce rivals.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

    Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
  • Scott_xP said:
    'When I said draw a dick on the ballot paper I didn't mean from life...'
  • stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:



    Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.

    What reasons do they adduce?
    There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".

    Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".

    You wait until they release the 5G 'update', then we will all be slaves...
  • I can report that a leader of a major UK political party (Alan "Howling Laud" hope) reckons Trump by a country mile
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Scott_xP said:
    He thought the sign outside said erection?
    :smiley:
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?

    It's a nice idea but I can't see myself tracking various websites (inc. PB), twitter feeds, watching CNN and zooming all at the same time, so I shall give zoom a miss but have fun!
    I'm much the same will be following CNN as well, i much prefer their coverage to the other networks, but I'll keep PB open to see reactions as the results start coming in :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:



    Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.

    What reasons do they adduce?
    There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".

    Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".

    You wait until they release the 5G 'update', then we will all be slaves...
    It causes mass memory loss. We’ll spend our days asking ‘who are we? Who are we?’
  • stodge said:

    It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
    Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.
    Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
    I would guess 5% will refuse
    Not if Trump endorses it. :worried:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:



    Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.

    What reasons do they adduce?
    There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".

    Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".

    Wait till they find they need to have had it to travel abroad.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    TimT said:

    The Cowboys are the Dallas American Football team in the NFL and this season they are crap beyond words. Jerry Jones is their own and reviled in much of US society.

    PS Philadelphia usually has a good football team, the Eagles, but they are also crap this season. The Cowboys and the Eagles are in the same Division and are fierce rivals.

    The Cowboys are not last in the division though...

    The NFC East is the 2020 of divisions in the NFL.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited November 2020
    It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    At least there’s one coming man in this election.
  • stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:



    Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.

    What reasons do they adduce?
    There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".

    Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".

    Given the vaccines apparently seem to make it less serious, but don't stop you catching it, he might be right. Anyway, he's not going to get it soon anyway.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.
    We'll know within 48 hours of unblinding because it will financially sensitive news that will be need to be released to shareholders.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    stodge said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:



    Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.

    What reasons do they adduce?
    There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".

    Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".

    Given the vaccines apparently seem to make it less serious, but don't stop you catching it, he might be right. Anyway, he's not going to get it soon anyway.
    We don't know any of this yet, because NONE OF THE VACCINE TRIALS HAS BEEN UNBLINDED YET.
  • I'm staying off the sauce tonight.

    I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.

    Japes.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?

    From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221

    Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!
    Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
    Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
    Dry ice isn’t very high tech.
    And from what I’ve read the vaccine lasts around a day at room temp ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?

    Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?

    I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Quick question - Why didn't Trump bring up Biden's opposition to the death penalty in the campaign ?
    If you're running on getting your base out that's an obvious fault line to exploit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Nigelb said:

    Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!
    Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
    Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
    Dry ice isn’t very high tech.
    And from what I’ve read the vaccine lasts around a day at room temp ?
    The flu jab also needs to be kept very cold, doesn't it? And that doesn't have that many problems.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    I'm staying off the sauce tonight.

    I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.

    Japes.

    How long do you hang your pheasant?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    rcs1000 said:

    None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

    Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
    Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited November 2020
    92% ballot drop off rate is way higher than they'd have got if the election day deadline hadn't been forced on people.
    Scott_xP said:
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

    Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
    Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
    Why would the UK wait if it has met UK requirements?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Looking at the current Pinealls data and assuming
    A) GOP and Dem vote 100% in alignment with party registration in both 2016 and 2020
    and
    2) Trump and Biden get an identical proportion of Unaffilaited and other (36.5% and 40% respectively) then Biden is currently 110 votes ahead.

    Trump won by 5500 in 2016
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    TimT said:

    I'm staying off the sauce tonight.

    I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.

    Japes.

    How long do you hang your pheasant?
    That wasn't to me but a good 10 days.

    And I LOVE the sound of Casino Royale's recipe.
  • TimT said:

    I'm staying off the sauce tonight.

    I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.

    Japes.

    How long do you hang your pheasant?
    Well I can't speak for Casino, but this time of year I'd give it 4 days and in January (when I think pheasant is at its best) 7
  • TimT said:

    It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?

    From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
    No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    TimT said:

    I'm staying off the sauce tonight.

    I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.

    Japes.

    How long do you hang your pheasant?
    Depends on if it’s a hen or a cock.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Quick question - Why didn't Trump bring up Biden's opposition to the death penalty in the campaign ?
    If you're running on getting your base out that's an obvious fault line to exploit.

    There's a belief that it loses your more than it gains if you're GOPer.

    An overwhelming majority of death penalty supporters were voting GOP anyway, but might put off floating voters.

    You've gone from over 80% support for the death penalty in the 1990s to barely over 50% now.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited November 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?

    Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?

    I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
    From what I can see, the GOP vote in a lot of the mid-sized counties Trump carried comfortably is down quite a bit. Polk the gap seems down a lot. Only 7500* reported to have voted on the day so far. Of course, that may reflect incomplete reporting rather than reality.

    * 8000 now. With just 3 hours of voting left, the GOP is just 4300 ahead on the party vote, whereas Trump carried Polk by 40k in 2016
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    I thought one of the advantages of the AZ vaccine was that it didn't require very cold storage, but just ordinary cold storage. Maybe I'm thinking of the Pfizer one.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    rcs1000 said:

    None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

    Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
    I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    TimT said:

    It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?

    From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
    No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.
    I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    I'm staying off the sauce tonight.

    I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.

    Japes.

    You are pureeing the celeriac with plenty of butter and cream I trust?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    I'm staying off the sauce tonight.

    I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.

    Japes.

    The Big Short is the superior wall street movie!
  • It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?

    The mismatch with the forecasting models is extraordinary. YouGov's MRP forecasts a mean of 382, 95% confidence range 314 to 412.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

    Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
    Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
    The rising case load in the UK is great for getting vaccine data!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    rcs1000 said:

    It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?

    Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?

    I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
    The GOP share in Sumter has been trending DOWNWARDS since about 1500 GMT. At a glacial pace, sure, about 0.01 points per hour, but downward nevertheless.

    This I cannot get my head around.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    rcs1000 said:

    None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

    Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
    I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.
    I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.

    There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.

    I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.
  • I'm staying off the sauce tonight.

    I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.

    Japes.

    You are pureeing the celeriac with plenty of butter and cream I trust?
    It's very nice roasted
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    TimT said:

    I'm staying off the sauce tonight.

    I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.

    Japes.

    How long do you hang your pheasant?
    That wasn't to me but a good 10 days.

    And I LOVE the sound of Casino Royale's recipe.
    Yeah, apple/celeriac sounds a good combo with a gamy bird.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited November 2020
    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?

    Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?

    I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
    From what I can see, the GOP vote in a lot of the mid-sized counties Trump carried comfortably is down quite a bit. Polk the gap seems down a lot. Only 7500* reported to have voted on the day so far. Of course, that may reflect incomplete reporting rather than reality.

    * 8000 now. With just 3 hours of voting left, the GOP is just 4300 ahead on the party vote, whereas Trump carried Polk by 40k in 2016
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Pulpstar said:

    92% ballot drop off rate is way higher than they'd have got if the election day deadline hadn't been forced on people.

    Scott_xP said:
    Remarkable - way higher than we manage in the UK.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,480
    TimT said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

    Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
    Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
    Why would the UK wait if it has met UK requirements?
    Quite.
  • ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Like flying a "Boris loves Man U" banner round Liverpool
    Hard to imagine that could make the Scousers hate him more than they already do.
    Boris has long hated Scousers:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2004/oct/16/pressandpublishing.conservativeparty
  • Post deleted
This discussion has been closed.