I won't be able to join the zoom - not sure whether I'll stay up at all, actually, as I suddenly have a rat infestation (caught the bastards on camera last night) which has been causing severely sleepless nights...
Best of luck to those with significant money on the line!
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.
I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.
I have been one of the most bearish on Biden on PB.
But I find this increasingly hard to argue with.
Broward has only ~10% on the day.
Sumter has ~8%.
Pin a little higher but still only ~16%.
There is less than three hours until the polls close.
Surfing through the medium-sized counties Trump won in 2016, there seems to be a recurring pattern - overall the vote is up some, but based on just party registration votes, Dem-registered voters are out performing Hillary's total 2016 vote (without their share of NPA), whereas GOP-registered voters are underperforming Trump's 2016 tally by 10-20%. And some of the small counties on the Georgia border are set to flip from Trump to Biden.
I am feeling fairly good about Biden's chances in FL.
Let’s have that photo of Trump and his team up again. Everything you need to know about an asteroid hitting Trumpland, no survivors, is there on their faces.
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.
I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.
I have been one of the most bearish on Biden on PB.
But I find this increasingly hard to argue with.
Broward has only ~10% on the day.
Sumter has ~8%.
Pin a little higher but still only ~16%.
There is less than three hours until the polls close.
Surfing through the medium-sized counties Trump won in 2016, there seems to be a recurring pattern - overall the vote is up some, but based on just party registration votes, Dem-registered voters are out performing Hillary's total 2016 vote (without their share of NPA), whereas GOP-registered voters are underperforming Trump's 2016 tally by 10-20%. And some of the small counties on the Georgia border are set to flip from Trump to Biden.
I am feeling fairly good about Biden's chances in FL.
Me too
I think that, given who didn't turn up to vote in key states in 2016, higher turnout in general is good for Biden.
Away from the election, a petition has been started to get the government to publish the details of the PHE model that was used on Saturday to justify National Lockdown 2.0 and which claimed 4,000 dead a day by end of the month.
Yes. Sure. There was only one forecast, it was the largest one (of the only one it was), and that was the entire reason for the lockdown. Nothing to do with hospitalisation rates. Or high levels of viral spread, still rocketing in the North West. Or the trajectory of spread, hospitalisations, and deaths all over the continent.
Is this a displacement activity? Or a version of what Kahnemann and Twersky called “answering another question?” (That is, when the answer to the appropriate or actual question is too hard or unwelcome (like “is a lockdown justified on existing deaths, hospitalisations, hospital overloads, and all the similar events from neighbouring countries?” you focus on one possibly all-but-irrelevant question you CAN answer to your satisfaction).
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.
No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.
I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.
I have been one of the most bearish on Biden on PB.
But I find this increasingly hard to argue with.
Broward has only ~10% on the day.
Sumter has ~8%.
Pin a little higher but still only ~16%.
There is less than three hours until the polls close.
Surfing through the medium-sized counties Trump won in 2016, there seems to be a recurring pattern - overall the vote is up some, but based on just party registration votes, Dem-registered voters are out performing Hillary's total 2016 vote (without their share of NPA), whereas GOP-registered voters are underperforming Trump's 2016 tally by 10-20%. And some of the small counties on the Georgia border are set to flip from Trump to Biden.
I am feeling fairly good about Biden's chances in FL.
Me too
I think that, given who didn't turn up to vote in key states in 2016, higher turnout in general is good for Biden.
Hillary really put off a significant number of natural supporters. I have friends who were almost willing Trump because they, frankly, loathed her.
Feels like it will all be a bit of anti-climax. Polls correct, Biden wins easily, done and dusted within a few hours....well California will still be counting for the next 3 weeks, but other than that.
CNN are doing a good job so far. Can't see why it should be suffering opprobrium from a few on here.
John King is talking sense. Wolf Blitzer is a heavyweight.
Apart from the really annoying ads and general razzmatazz, I find the political analysis far, far better than we get in our elections on the BBC, for example.
Feels like it will all be a bit of anti-climax. Polls correct, Biden wins easily, done and dusted within a few hours....well California will still be counting for the next 3 weeks, but other than that.
That's what I've been suggesting. Biden wins Florida and it's all over.
How can Wales possibly justify coming out of their lockdown in 6 days given what's happened to the numbers since it started? If people are suggesting that England's might be extended after a month (despite numbers already stabilising now) the only justification for Wales coming out would be if they thought the lockdown had actually made things worse?
Away from the election, a petition has been started to get the government to publish the details of the PHE model that was used on Saturday to justify National Lockdown 2.0 and which claimed 4,000 dead a day by end of the month.
Yes. Sure. There was only one forecast, it was the largest one (of the only one it was), and that was the entire reason for the lockdown. Nothing to do with hospitalisation rates. Or high levels of viral spread, still rocketing in the North West. Or the trajectory of spread, hospitalisations, and deaths all over the continent.
Is this a displacement activity? Or a version of what Kahnemann and Twersky called “answering another question?” (That is, when the answer to the appropriate or actual question is too hard or unwelcome (like “is a lockdown justified on existing deaths, hospitalisations, hospital overloads, and all the similar events from neighbouring countries?” you focus on one possibly all-but-irrelevant question you CAN answer to your satisfaction).
It is perfectly reasonable to ask for all the models and all the data to be publicly available
It is a basic principle of science that it is open and accessible
Feels like it will all be a bit of anti-climax. Polls correct, Biden wins easily, done and dusted within a few hours....well California will still be counting for the next 3 weeks, but other than that.
What leads you to this view Francis? The FL numbers?
Feels like it will all be a bit of anti-climax. Polls correct, Biden wins easily, done and dusted within a few hours....well California will still be counting for the next 3 weeks, but other than that.
It won't be done and dusted - literally everyone in the White House will be fighting to get something out of the 3 months left - it's not as if there are prime jobs waiting for the D team that Trump surrounded himself with
Away from the election, a petition has been started to get the government to publish the details of the PHE model that was used on Saturday to justify National Lockdown 2.0 and which claimed 4,000 dead a day by end of the month.
Yes. Sure. There was only one forecast, it was the largest one (of the only one it was), and that was the entire reason for the lockdown. Nothing to do with hospitalisation rates. Or high levels of viral spread, still rocketing in the North West. Or the trajectory of spread, hospitalisations, and deaths all over the continent.
Is this a displacement activity? Or a version of what Kahnemann and Twersky called “answering another question?” (That is, when the answer to the appropriate or actual question is too hard or unwelcome (like “is a lockdown justified on existing deaths, hospitalisations, hospital overloads, and all the similar events from neighbouring countries?” you focus on one possibly all-but-irrelevant question you CAN answer to your satisfaction).
That's not a reason to hide the models and data away from public scrutiny. The deaths projection from the 28th from the PHE model is well below a quarter of the one in the government graph. That the government presented data from a model it knew was outdated is wrong, however you want to cut it and they should be called out over it.
The whole government strategy has been wrong from day one and this is part of why, their secrecy and hiding behind executive privilege is why we are where we are. It allows unsuitable people like Harding to be appointed, it allows Dom to prattle on cluelessly about data science behind the scenes and it allows politicians to justify measures without presenting the public with supporting evidence.
CNN are doing a good job so far. Can't see why it should be suffering opprobrium from a few on here.
John King is talking sense. Wolf Blitzer is a heavyweight.
Apart from the really annoying ads and general razzmatazz, I find the political analysis far, far better than we get in our elections on the BBC, for example.
This post hasn't aged well. The exit poll is a piece of nonsense.
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
Away from the election, a petition has been started to get the government to publish the details of the PHE model that was used on Saturday to justify National Lockdown 2.0 and which claimed 4,000 dead a day by end of the month.
Yes. Sure. There was only one forecast, it was the largest one (of the only one it was), and that was the entire reason for the lockdown. Nothing to do with hospitalisation rates. Or high levels of viral spread, still rocketing in the North West. Or the trajectory of spread, hospitalisations, and deaths all over the continent.
Is this a displacement activity? Or a version of what Kahnemann and Twersky called “answering another question?” (That is, when the answer to the appropriate or actual question is too hard or unwelcome (like “is a lockdown justified on existing deaths, hospitalisations, hospital overloads, and all the similar events from neighbouring countries?” you focus on one possibly all-but-irrelevant question you CAN answer to your satisfaction).
That's not a reason to hide the models and data away from public scrutiny. The deaths projection from the 28th from the PHE model is well below a quarter of the one in the government graph. That the government presented data from a model it knew was outdated is wrong, however you want to cut it and they should be called out over it.
The whole government strategy has been wrong from day one and this is part of why, their secrecy and hiding behind executive privilege is why we are where we are. It allows unsuitable people like Harding to be appointed, it allows Dom to prattle on cluelessly about data science behind the scenes and it allows politicians to justify measures without presenting the public with supporting evidence.
And if the Government measures are justified, it also massively undermines public buy-in and trust to the idea that they should follow them. At every stage of this virus the Government has said that the current rules are sufficient - if most people follow them. The corollary is that when they haven't been sufficient is that people haven't been following them. And a large part of that is that people don't understand the justification for many of the restrictions. It's too easy for sceptics to fill the space.
Remember that the exit poll only gets ON THE DAY VOTERS, who will skew Republican.
True
First thing i thought when i saw the low Covid number was , most people who rank their concern on that higher would vote by mail. And we know the % of EV by mail, so I take that poll with a large cup of salt, in addition to the reason Robert just gave
I am about to bet on JB for Florida what are the reasons not to??
I'm with you. Not looking good for Trump.
Ok, let's take Orange.
Clinton won it by 144K in 2016.
The current D-R gap is just under 105K
The Republicans are winning on the day.
To assume that the Ds win the state by the same amount, you have to assume (a) a large amount of crossover and / or (b) Independents break heavily for the Ds.
We have no clue about the NFA vote but we can see they are voting like Republicans i.e. less VBM, more IPEV / in -day
To get to the 2016 lead of Orange, based on the current vote (and assuming crossovers cancel each other) you would have to assume the NFAs split 61.8% for Biden, 39.2% for Trump so over a 20% gap.
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
Can confirm that this news about vaccine is circulation widely officially within the NHS. Although you presumably need some pretty powerful fridges to store a vaccine at -70 degrees.
The Cowboys are the Dallas American Football team in the NFL and this season they are crap beyond words. Jerry Jones is their owner and reviled in much of US society.
PS Philadelphia usually has a good football team, the Eagles, but they are also crap this season. The Cowboys and the Eagles are in the same Division and are fierce rivals.
Although I’m told he’s a surprisingly nice guy (we have some mutual friends although I’ve never met him)
Wolf Blitzer just said some states will be faster or slower...
That is not the analysis we need
Will some states be red, and some blue?
With 2+ hours until the first polls actually close and no exit polling what else can you do to fill the time.
Start the show two hours later?
that would make sense but this is 24hour rolling news
I prefer 24 hour trolling news.
Been out to friends for a final pre-lockdown supper. Has Trump conceded yet? Any news? Gossip?
Trump has got the inside information from PA,NC,GA and FL. He was seen leaving the whitehouse in a helicopter and Pence has given a presser saying that he has been sworn in as president of the USA. So, no not that much news.
I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.
Japes.
How long do you hang your pheasant?
That wasn't to me but a good 10 days.
And I LOVE the sound of Casino Royale's recipe.
Cooked, eaten and finished.
One of the most delicious meals I've had for weeks.
And I failed to stay off the sauce: I succumbed to a small glass of rioja to go with it.
Sounds amazing!
I'd done so well not drinking too much this year. Saturday's announcement really put the kybosh on that. Californian Pinot as a hat tip to the American cousins. Come on Biden!
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
Tell us what you know. At least a hint.
Did we buy fridges? Or did we buy a promise of some fridges?
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
What reasons do they adduce?
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
Given the vaccines apparently seem to make it less serious, but don't stop you catching it, he might be right. Anyway, he's not going to get it soon anyway.
We don't know any of this yet, because NONE OF THE VACCINE TRIALS HAS BEEN UNBLINDED YET.
The Astra trial is single blinded, not double blinded, though so they know who got the vaccine and who got placebo
We also know that it is safe and tolerable which is the most important thing in a vaccine
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient! Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible. Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
Can confirm that this news about vaccine is circulation widely officially within the NHS. Although you presumably need some pretty powerful fridges to store a vaccine at -70 degrees.
Standard -80 at any uni biology/ pharmacology dept.
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.
They are the same trial, but I guess you could close early if you had hit sufficient patients to get statistical significance
Wolf Blitzer just said some states will be faster or slower...
That is not the analysis we need
Will some states be red, and some blue?
With 2+ hours until the first polls actually close and no exit polling what else can you do to fill the time.
Start the show two hours later?
that would make sense but this is 24hour rolling news
I prefer 24 hour trolling news.
Been out to friends for a final pre-lockdown supper. Has Trump conceded yet? Any news? Gossip?
Trump has got the inside information from PA,NC,GA and FL. He was seen leaving the whitehouse in a helicopter and Pence has given a presser saying that he has been sworn in as president of the USA. So, no not that much news.
Thanks, glad not to have missed Trump launching the nukes.....
Comments
John King is talking sense. Wolf Blitzer is a heavyweight.
https://twitter.com/michaeljknowles/status/1009533497738870785
Best of luck to those with significant money on the line!
--AS
BUT!
Compared to 2016, Trump's margin of victory is narrower. He was from -2 to -5 in Dixville Notch, and +16 to +15 in Millfield.
In total, he's gone from a 14 vote lead from the two earliest voting "towns" to a 10 vote lead.
Will probs also open LA Times and Washington Post.
I'm not sure I'm going to bother with twitter. I might.
One of the most delicious meals I've had for weeks.
And I failed to stay off the sauce: I succumbed to a small glass of rioja to go with it.
Nothing to do with hospitalisation rates. Or high levels of viral spread, still rocketing in the North West. Or the trajectory of spread, hospitalisations, and deaths all over the continent.
Is this a displacement activity? Or a version of what Kahnemann and Twersky called “answering another question?” (That is, when the answer to the appropriate or actual question is too hard or unwelcome (like “is a lockdown justified on existing deaths, hospitalisations, hospital overloads, and all the similar events from neighbouring countries?” you focus on one possibly all-but-irrelevant question you CAN answer to your satisfaction).
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1323720441186451457?s=19
I didn't think we were expecting anything until 1.30 our time at the earliest?
That doesn't sound like a man who thinks he is in with a shout of winning, given how Trump is normally so forthright with what he is thinking.
Trump: Presidency has been ‘mean’ and filled with ‘horrible people’
He also said he found the U.S. to be the “most difficult country to deal with” in the world.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/03/trump-presidency-mean-horrible-people-433917
Boss Hogg doing his best.
http://www.newsmutiny.com/pages/Alligator-Ballot-Box.html
Bless.
It is a basic principle of science that it is open and accessible
It was 47% apiece to Clinton and Trump in 2020.
Biden is nice
Trump is nasty
Santa is only visiting one of them
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323747789122228230
Oh well its only money
Besides i believe he is looking good because of the non party registered
Been out to friends for a final pre-lockdown supper. Has Trump conceded yet? Any news? Gossip?
https://twitter.com/btharris93/status/1323748134263074816
https://twitter.com/btharris93/status/1323748244879478785
What a waste of time that CNN exit poll was.
The whole government strategy has been wrong from day one and this is part of why, their secrecy and hiding behind executive privilege is why we are where we are. It allows unsuitable people like Harding to be appointed, it allows Dom to prattle on cluelessly about data science behind the scenes and it allows politicians to justify measures without presenting the public with supporting evidence.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/02/politics/exit-polls-2020-pandemic/index.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAKksqKR3pI
Clinton won it by 144K in 2016.
The current D-R gap is just under 105K
The Republicans are winning on the day.
To assume that the Ds win the state by the same amount, you have to assume (a) a large amount of crossover and / or (b) Independents break heavily for the Ds.
We have no clue about the NFA vote but we can see they are voting like Republicans i.e. less VBM, more IPEV / in -day
To get to the 2016 lead of Orange, based on the current vote (and assuming crossovers cancel each other) you would have to assume the NFAs split 61.8% for Biden, 39.2% for Trump so over a 20% gap.
Possible? Yes. Likely? No
It's a waiting game.
I'd done so well not drinking too much this year. Saturday's announcement really put the kybosh on that. Californian Pinot as a hat tip to the American cousins. Come on Biden!
We also know that it is safe and tolerable which is the most important thing in a vaccine
My love-in didn't last long
Looking very red
Its a Covid map though
Trump would want to see Economy or Crime and Safety which comes to 45%
Biden surely wins on Racial inequality, COVID and Healthcare which is 50%
For Biden's issues to be in the lead with on the day voters seems good for Biden.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/02/politics/exit-polls-2020-pandemic/index.html
Edit: Already been posted.