Kenton County Kentucky 29% est reporting, CNN say it's all early voting
Currently Biden almost 16k, Trump 8k
2016 final tally was Clinton 24k, Trump 42k
Now OK, it's all early voting, so a pretty distorted sample which is going to overstate things for the Democrats. Nonetheless, the fact that Biden has already got 2/3rds of Clinton's total 2016 vote when Trump has got under 20% of his own in 2016 seems to me to be much more than a shift than could be explained away JUST by early voting distorting things.
I think that's some extremely encouraging early tea leaves for the Biden camp.
I think people will overly interpret the result tonight if it is a landslide for Biden.
People were fed up with Trump's divisive rhetoric and bullshit, and coronavirus has totally killed him, but Biden is a moderate candidate and many will have lent him their vote.
He and Kamala need to tread lightly. If they use it as a mandate for very radical Leftward change the Republicans will be back, possibly as early as 2024.
Possibly. Depends if the Reps tack back to the centre or go fuĺl on QAnon crazy. So too early to tell.
Does anyone have any recommendations in the current Laithwaite's sale?
No idea what your budget is but Waitrose has a decent quaffing Saumur down from £9-odd to £7.50.
Might be finishing today that said!
A rather nice Cote Du Rhone Villages for me tonight from Majestic, but only a half bottle, and some cheese to mop it up. I have the morning off, but busy afternoon
I'm actually not a midweek drinker so totally sober for me right now but I had a bottle at the weekend and it was very easy to drink!
I had to finish off the last glass of a slightly disappointing Aussie char earlier before it turned to vinegar, otherwise rooibos tea throughout.
Officially the most annoying US TV announcement is 'too close to call' brought in with a whooshing sound on screen.. Then its repeated every 2 mins, we are calling Nevada ' TOO CLOSE TO CALL'.
About as much use as a chocolate teapot.
You can actually EAT a chocolate teapot, so it does have some use.
Exit poll, only 5% of Trump voters consider Covid their main concern. 23% Dems. Doesn't suggest many R to D switchers due to the virus I guess
It’s a classic polling question problem though isn’t it? If our election was today I don’t know if I’d say Covid was the number one issue for the election, given that we’re talking four years hence. Can mean something and nothing.
This is the stage in the night in 2016 when everyone was convinced Hillary was going to win.
Especially when the exit poll came out showing that 54% of voters had a negative view of Trump.
It looked so predictable and boring I fell asleep on the couch watching it. Woke up just in time to see it getting called for Trump which took me a moment to be convinced it wasn't some weird dream.
Keep an eye on Kenton county in KY on that CNN map. Biden doing well with about 30% in in a state Trump won 2-1 in 2016. As its a suburbs county, might give an idea of those in more important states, like OH,NC , so if Biden is doing really well in Kenton (he wont win there though) might suggest good news in more important states
I think people will overly interpret the result tonight if it is a landslide for Biden.
People were fed up with Trump's divisive rhetoric and bullshit, and coronavirus has totally killed him, but Biden is a moderate candidate and many will have lent him their vote.
He and Kamala need to tread lightly. If they use it as a mandate for very radical Leftward change the Republicans will be back, possibly as early as 2024.
It would be very easy for the more radical types to give in to the temptation to go too far, particularly in acting punitively or on extreme matters. That Biden probably is not that way inclined is presumably why the more excitable ones are not huge fans of his, and it will be interesting to see how much he can set the agenda vs being pressured by others, in the event of a landslide.
It depends what you call radical. I just heard a female republican on radio saying a Biden win would be a disaster because we would end up with Kamala and she'd take our guns off us!
I'm off to bed and as you will have seen from my posts I am not super engaged with the process so will wake up to it all tomorrow.
I maintain my position that Trump could win (have backed accordingly) for reasons previously stated but then what with my Chisora tip the other day I'd ignore everything I say on the betting front, frankly.
I'm off to bed and as you will have seen from my posts I am not super engaged with the process so will wake up to it all tomorrow.
I maintain my position that Trump could win (have backed accordingly) for reasons previously stated but then what with my Chisora tip the other day I'd ignore everything I say on the betting front, frankly.
I have to say that CNN's coverage is really excellent, in terms of drilling deep to try and find out what the early numbers might portend, in appropriate context.
In the UK I find following general elections on the internet much more informative than the TV channels. CNN are in a different league.
A bit like watching golf on Sky compared to the BBC (on the rare occasions it's on the latter).
Only got one stick left to play with (drained my current, and now credits banned) so up for state tips to dribble in some table stakes in the next few hours..
Only got one stick left to play with (drained my current, and now credits banned) so up for state tips to dribble in some table stakes in the next few hours..
Comments
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323772788549836801?s=20
29% est reporting, CNN say it's all early voting
Currently Biden almost 16k, Trump 8k
2016 final tally was Clinton 24k, Trump 42k
Now OK, it's all early voting, so a pretty distorted sample which is going to overstate things for the Democrats. Nonetheless, the fact that Biden has already got 2/3rds of Clinton's total 2016 vote when Trump has got under 20% of his own in 2016 seems to me to be much more than a shift than could be explained away JUST by early voting distorting things.
I think that's some extremely encouraging early tea leaves for the Biden camp.
I think that really helps him.
Wooosh!!! (The sound of me getting my coat)
BBC currently doing the US electoral system for dummies thing. They managed to drag Brillo back in though.
Especially when the exit poll came out showing that 54% of voters had a negative view of Trump.
Than both Heineken and Andrew Neil.
My takeaways from the very limited amount of data we have are:
(1) rural turnout is only up 9-12%
(2) Biden is outperforming in the suburbs
(3) Trump is probably holding his vote share in rural areas
Plus I'd get too distracted/shocked by how people look/sound in reality.
If the Dems had selected Warren this would be a real fight.
I'm off to bed and as you will have seen from my posts I am not super engaged with the process so will wake up to it all tomorrow.
I maintain my position that Trump could win (have backed accordingly) for reasons previously stated but then what with my Chisora tip the other day I'd ignore everything I say on the betting front, frankly.
If you puke, I'll give you an "off topic".
In the UK I find following general elections on the internet much more informative than the TV channels. CNN are in a different league.
A bit like watching golf on Sky compared to the BBC (on the rare occasions it's on the latter).
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html
Republican bullishness tempered by actuality of 2020. They have nothing to be bullish about.
MARQUEEMARK calls the election for BIDEN
"CNN now projects President Trump will win"
"...Indiana"