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WH2020: The spreads latest and tonight’s PB election zoom gathering – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244
    Does anyone have any recommendations in the current Laithwaite's sale?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    edited November 2020
    gealbhan said:

    Something I don’t understand. Why are you all pretending like you don’t know what the result is? Are your tenter hooks genuine?
    Is the excitement building to some sort of pretend explosion and happiness some sort of game?

    It’s actually a cold sober business turning pledges into successful policy, landslide victory into a lasting and significant change. The next 24 hours rather ephemeral in the struggle. Like the Pomp of Edward Elgar played at the graduation, it means nothing without the circumstance of battle to come.

    I find election nights exciting in and of themselves. In fact I'm more interested in them than I am in politics per se.
  • Anything happening?

    I AM DRUNK
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    gealbhan said:

    Why hate Trump? The guy roped decent conservative standards and philosophy to himself, and jumped into a dark ocean. Democrats and liberals should erect statues to remember him by.

    You're new here, right? Can you save the trolling until after results?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    The DeKalb and Greene numbers are "OK" for the President. He's got big leads, but they're down on 2016, and rural turnout is simply not up that much compared to what we'd expect.

    Yup, not much different from 2016.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366

    alex_ said:

    Charles said:

    Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!
    Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
    Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
    The U.K. government was the largest global buyer of fridges earlier in the year
    Can confirm that this news about vaccine is circulation widely officially within the NHS. Although you presumably need some pretty powerful fridges to store a vaccine at -70 degrees.
    Standard -80 at any uni biology/ pharmacology dept.
    Liquid nitrogen dewars go down to -190 degrees!
    We got to play with the liquid nitrogen in second year experiments.
    Having used it for 25 years the novelty wears off. Still like making snow in summer (ice formed on transfer hoses) though...
    Did you ever play "how long can I stick my finger in the liquid nitrogen"?
    Probably just as well we aren't allowed to use it in schools...
    Nope but very well aware of what you can and can’t get away with...
    Colleague of mine was a fluorine chemist in a previous life: that is a substance where the list of things you can get away with is essentially blank.
    Well, on the upside - he got another life. I'll get my coat....
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Interesting point on CNN from Indiana - most of the early vote reports are mail-in ballots
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851
    I have been in my current job for four years. I started a couple of weeks after the 2016 US election. Looking back on that evening I remember going to bed with all the predictions that Hillary would win. RCS and others on here were convinced. So I'm not taking anything for granted. So far it seems as if turnout is up but not much else of note.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    CNN: Almost all early in Indiana, half and half in KY.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,603
    rcs1000 said:

    Jay and Stueben Counties now coming in in Indiana. Bot showing good Trump leads.

    Bloody bots.....
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    CNN is much improved now that actual results are emerging
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    Caution - Of votes reported so far, a lot is early vote - so skews Biden
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    CNN reporting partial results from first three deep red counties in Indiana/Kentucky. In each case with a majority of the vote counted, Trump's margin over Biden has fallen quite noticeably compared with that over Clinton in 2016. However, given the disparity between postal/early in person voting/ election day voting, if one part of that is being counted more than the rest that pattern might be misleading.

    CNN sating in Indiana most of the votes reported early are mail in ballot votes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    On the one hand I’m a bit jealous of the granular data, but on the other hand I feel the yanks miss out on returning officer theatre.

    Do they even make the candidates at various races stand on a stage with a guy in an elmo costume and another with a bucket on his head? Is it even really democracy at that point?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    rcs1000 said:

    Jay and Stueben Counties now coming in in Indiana. Bot showing good Trump leads.

    Which county in IN was it to watch?

    I love the CNN map. Great live reporting
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    ITV just showed a live video of a counting centre in Philadelphia and it looked surprisingly similar to a British election counting centre in a places like Sunderland. I don't think I've ever seen that before on an American election night. They don't usually bother showing them.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    spudgfsh said:

    Andy_JS said:
    in that one county clinton got a total of 2929 votes.
    Just looked at Jessamine County there and with only 2/3 votes in Bidens already got 1000 more votes than Clinton did , she got 28% of the vote last time, hes on 38%, , wonder if those sort of numbers will be repeated across KY
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    TimT said:

    Is that like in "We're looking really good all over the country for votes, but not finding enough of them"?
    Surely he would have said "goodly" if that was what he meant?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    If you want value for the Democrats in a close race look to Georgia.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    MattW said:

    Does anyone have any recommendations in the current Laithwaite's sale?

    Is the Julian Bouchard white burgundy in the sale? (I doubt it, but buy it anyway)
  • kle4 said:

    On the one hand I’m a bit jealous of the granular data, but on the other hand I feel the yanks miss out on returning officer theatre.

    Do they even make the candidates at various races stand on a stage with a guy in an elmo costume and another with a bucket on his head? Is it even really democracy at that point?
    You’re not a real world leader unless you’ve had to treat Lord Bucket Head as an equal.
  • Anything happening?

    We have a new troll ...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    I wish they'd just stay on that map all night.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited November 2020
    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sounds like FL is going to be an absolute nail-biter.
    2.8 was pretty good odds.
    I had a nibble. It would have been rude not to at those odds.
    Take Georgia at 2.6 BF. Roughly same odds as Florida but Dems have better chance their IMO.
  • Good news.

    Hopefully Miss Cyclefree can be happy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    MattW said:

    Does anyone have any recommendations in the current Laithwaite's sale?

    No idea what your budget is but Waitrose has a decent quaffing Saumur down from £9-odd to £7.50.

    Might be finishing today that said!
  • RobD said:

    Is that a U-turn? They didn't change anything from what was initially announced.
    They initially announced no alcohol sales - they’ve changed that to allowing pre-ordered (phone/online) because of all the beer that would have been binned.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    The rural Indiana Counties are showing 9 to 12% increases in turnout.
  • I think people will overly interpret the result tonight if it is a landslide for Biden.

    People were fed up with Trump's divisive rhetoric and bullshit, and coronavirus has totally killed him, but Biden is a moderate candidate and many will have lent him their vote.

    He and Kamala need to tread lightly. If they use it as a mandate for very radical Leftward change the Republicans will be back, possibly as early as 2024.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    If you're brave there may be a lag from what we may be starting to see and the spreads. It has happened before e.g. the Brexit vote.

    But I'm not going to be held responsible :wink:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Shouldn’t have started the “brisk” and “steady” turnout drinking game.

    I was just thinking about that. A shame she didn't say it was brisk ;)
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    rcs1000 said:

    The rural Indiana Counties are showing 9 to 12% increases in turnout.

    rural means good for Trump then?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jay and Stueben Counties now coming in in Indiana. Bot showing good Trump leads.

    Which county in IN was it to watch?

    I love the CNN map. Great live reporting
    Dubois in IN - Trump with same % of vote, Biden adding share but from 3rd parties
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Mal557 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The rural Indiana Counties are showing 9 to 12% increases in turnout.

    rural means good for Trump then?
    Yes but Turnout is up 18% overall
  • Floater said:

    Bidens latest senior moment is quite a moment.....

    Going to have 4 years of it.
    2 years and 1 day of it in office might be perfect for Harris.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    Mal557 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Andy_JS said:
    in that one county clinton got a total of 2929 votes.
    Just looked at Jessamine County there and with only 2/3 votes in Bidens already got 1000 more votes than Clinton did , she got 28% of the vote last time, hes on 38%, , wonder if those sort of numbers will be repeated across KY
    I've been looking at a number of the early counties and Biden has more votes (and by enough to account to greater turnout) than clinton did in 2016. too early to read anything into it though
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    MrEd said:
    Whats he supposed to say?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    edited November 2020
    And now to upset people...

    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    So the voters are less white than 2016....

    So the voters are less white than 2016....

    Climate change.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The rural Indiana Counties are showing 9 to 12% increases in turnout.

    Can someone talk me out of my view that rural red state results are meaningless? Only, if Biden is up appreciably, you have two narratives which could easily be true, but are contradictory:

    1) Biden is up even in red states, this is great news for his chances in the electoral college and the easier states.
    2) Biden's national poll lead is an electoral college mirage - he's building up useless votes, and will lose narrowly in all the states that matter.
  • Mal557 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The rural Indiana Counties are showing 9 to 12% increases in turnout.

    rural means good for Trump then?
    Well... Indiana once elected Pence as Governor. And I think Roy Neary lived there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    I think people will overly interpret the result tonight if it is a landslide for Biden.

    People were fed up with Trump's divisive rhetoric and bullshit, and coronavirus has totally killed him, but Biden is a moderate candidate and many will have lent him their vote.

    He and Kamala need to tread lightly. If they use it as a mandate for very radical Leftward change the Republicans will be back, possibly as early as 2024.

    It would be very easy for the more radical types to give in to the temptation to go too far, particularly in acting punitively or on extreme matters. That Biden probably is not that way inclined is presumably why the more excitable ones are not huge fans of his, and it will be interesting to see how much he can set the agenda vs being pressured by others, in the event of a landslide.
  • GIN1138 said:
    More chance of LDs winning in USA than here!

    Thanks for coming Ed!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Remarkable that neither Democrats nor Republicans think the pandemic is the most important issue.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    UK case by specimen date, and scaled to 100K population

    image
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    Does anyone have any recommendations in the current Laithwaite's sale?

    No idea what your budget is but Waitrose has a decent quaffing Saumur down from £9-odd to £7.50.

    Might be finishing today that said!
    A rather nice Cote Du Rhone Villages for me tonight from Majestic, but only a half bottle, and some cheese to mop it up. I have the morning off, but busy afternoon
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    UK R

    image
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    And now to upset people...

    UK cases by specimen date

    image

    Ok come on, not now pleeease. This is US election night.
  • Ooooo I f

    If you're brave there may be a lag from what we may be starting to see and the spreads. It has happened before e.g. the Brexit vote.

    But I'm not going to be held responsible :wink:

    Yeah it’s stating to look like if there’s money to be made it’s on people underestimating a landslide after it’s looking likely. A bit like 2015 and the stupid odds on a Tory majority late on. I get so nervous with foreign counties though and being sure I have good data.
  • Just finished Wall Street. Pumped.

    Where can I buy Anacott Steel?
  • And now to upset people...

    UK cases by specimen date

    image

    Those numbers look smaller to me.
    microscopic.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    UK case summary

    image
    image
    image
  • Biden ahead in Kentucky currently wut
  • Biden ahead in Kentucky currently wut

    Mail in votes counted first.
  • Remarkable that neither Democrats nor Republicans think the pandemic is the most important issue.

    Economy is probably a proxy, at least in part.
  • MrEd said:
    Whats he supposed to say?
    He could try saying nothing. Just an idea.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    edited November 2020
    Busy night when one is reading the comments and not catching up but falling further behind.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Remarkable that neither Democrats nor Republicans think the pandemic is the most important issue.

    Is it? I think the obsession with it in this country irrational tbh.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Biden slightly ahead in Kentucky. EARLY VOTE
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    UK hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Just finished Wall Street. Pumped.

    Where can I buy Anacott Steel?

    Why? What do you know?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    rcs1000 said:

    Note, early reporting will be massively biased towards all the mail-in and early voting.

    Not true.

    Some states report mail in first, others report on the day first.
    Only going on what the news channel are saying.
    538 has an excellent state-by-state guide as to which sort of votes will be released first. It's under the heading "When to expect election results in every state".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    edited November 2020
    Indiana.

    2020 vs 2016 (so far)
    These numbers are Trump's share by county.
            2016    2020
    DeKalb 71% 69%
    Dubois 67% 68%
    Greene 74% 70%
    Jay 71% 71%
    Steuben 70% 62%
    Wabash 73% 72%
    Whitley 73% 67%
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    UK Deaths

    image
    image
    image

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Just finished Wall Street. Pumped.

    Where can I buy Anacott Steel?

    One of my favourite things about Billions is the frequent movie references. Blue Horseshoe makes an appearance!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Ooooo I f

    If you're brave there may be a lag from what we may be starting to see and the spreads. It has happened before e.g. the Brexit vote.

    But I'm not going to be held responsible :wink:

    Yeah it’s stating to look like if there’s money to be made it’s on people underestimating a landslide after it’s looking likely. A bit like 2015 and the stupid odds on a Tory majority late on. I get so nervous with foreign counties though and being sure I have good data.
    Yep

    Still 310 Buy on Biden's ECV Spreadex
  • Aargh, CNN, is such garbage, WHY IS THERE NO SWINGOMETER
  • if you think CNN's exit polls are annoying, wait until you see the "key race alerts".
  • TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    Does anyone have any recommendations in the current Laithwaite's sale?

    No idea what your budget is but Waitrose has a decent quaffing Saumur down from £9-odd to £7.50.

    Might be finishing today that said!
    Laithwaites!!! Thank you for reminding me that I need to get my Xmas cases of wine ordered up.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    UK R from cases and from hospitalisation

    image
    image
    image
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    As I understand it they are counting the EVs in KY first so I expect that gap to drop a lot once they get to the on day votes
  • I think CNN is ok
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    To be fair, judged on KT, Biden seems to be doing well in the suburbs
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    Does anyone have any recommendations in the current Laithwaite's sale?

    No idea what your budget is but Waitrose has a decent quaffing Saumur down from £9-odd to £7.50.

    Might be finishing today that said!
    A rather nice Cote Du Rhone Villages for me tonight from Majestic, but only a half bottle, and some cheese to mop it up. I have the morning off, but busy afternoon
    I'm actually not a midweek drinker so totally sober for me right now but I had a bottle at the weekend and it was very easy to drink!
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Betfair
    Biden 1.47
    Trump 3.05
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    rcs1000 said:

    Indiana.

    2020 vs 2016 (so far)
    These numbers are Trump's share by county.


            2016    2020
    DeKalb 71% 69%
    Dubois 67% 68%
    Greene 74% 70%
    Jay 71% 71%
    Steuben 70% 62%
    Wabash 73% 72%
    Whitley 73% 67%
    Did someone say IN were largely reporting early voting?
  • Just realised Freeview doesn't have any US channels on it. Please tell me BBC coverage won't be complete shite?

    'Sake.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Just finished Wall Street. Pumped.

    Where can I buy Anacott Steel?

    Moneyball for me. Superior sports film I'll put it down to Aaron Sorkin.
  • Anything happening?

    I AM DRUNK
    Amateur lightweight. I will have a beer. When my pizza arrives in a bit...
  • Just realised Freeview doesn't have any US channels on it. Please tell me BBC coverage won't be complete shite?

    'Sake.

    https://ustv247.tv/foxnewslive/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indiana.

    2020 vs 2016 (so far)
    These numbers are Trump's share by county.


            2016    2020
    DeKalb 71% 69%
    Dubois 67% 68%
    Greene 74% 70%
    Jay 71% 71%
    Steuben 70% 62%
    Wabash 73% 72%
    Whitley 73% 67%
    Did someone say IN were largely reporting early voting?
    I believe so, but it depends on the county commissionar.

    Big issue for Trump here is that turnout is not up that much.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Malmesbury please please please drop it tonight. This is the US election. Once in every 4 years. I don't want to see flipping charts about CV.

    Trump's about to lose because of the coronavirus, and we're going into national lockdown over it in 24 hours, so it's a hard 'post whatever you like' to Malmesbury from me!
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    Officially the most annoying US TV announcement is 'too close to call' brought in with a whooshing sound on screen.. Then its repeated every 2 mins, we are calling Nevada ' TOO CLOSE TO CALL'.

    About as much use as a chocolate teapot.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Judging from both camps, it doesn't seem both camps are particularly bullish.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Anything happening?

    I AM DRUNK
    Amateur lightweight. I will have a beer. When my pizza arrives in a bit...
    Pineapple?
  • Anything happening?

    I AM DRUNK
    Amateur lightweight. I will have a beer. When my pizza arrives in a bit...
    I like pizza!!!!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Mal557 said:

    As I understand it they are counting the EVs in KY first so I expect that gap to drop a lot once they get to the on day votes
    CNN tells you by county what % is EV (GENERALLY ABOUT 70%)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    Does anyone have any recommendations in the current Laithwaite's sale?

    No idea what your budget is but Waitrose has a decent quaffing Saumur down from £9-odd to £7.50.

    Might be finishing today that said!
    A rather nice Cote Du Rhone Villages for me tonight from Majestic, but only a half bottle, and some cheese to mop it up. I have the morning off, but busy afternoon
    I'm actually not a midweek drinker so totally sober for me right now but I had a bottle at the weekend and it was very easy to drink!
    Nor me usually, but special occasion....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    I think people will overly interpret the result tonight if it is a landslide for Biden.

    People were fed up with Trump's divisive rhetoric and bullshit, and coronavirus has totally killed him, but Biden is a moderate candidate and many will have lent him their vote.

    He and Kamala need to tread lightly. If they use it as a mandate for very radical Leftward change the Republicans will be back, possibly as early as 2024.

    Possibly.
    Depends if the Reps tack back to the centre or go fuĺl on QAnon crazy.
    So too early to tell.
  • I am DrunkHorseBattery!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    MrEd said:

    To be fair, judged on KT, Biden seems to be doing well in the suburbs

    Yes agreed.

    But because of this early voting vs on the day, it's still hard to see the wood for the trees. Anyone able to dissect this?
  • I think CNN is ok

    Mr at the data board is good, it is when they go to the talking heads it just becomes so partisan. Fox News is surprisingly straight shooting on reporting.
  • Just realised Freeview doesn't have any US channels on it. Please tell me BBC coverage won't be complete shite?

    'Sake.

    Sometimes Freeview 232 show C-SPAN, not sure they will tonight though.
This discussion has been closed.