WH2020: The spreads latest and tonight’s PB election zoom gathering – politicalbetting.com

NerysHughes said:

rcs1000 said:

NerysHughes said:

This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/

None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.

I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.

I think it's also targeted at letting us out in December. Infections now seem to be flat * so there's no reason why a lockdown shouldn't suppress it significantly.

* fingers crossed. I remember thinking that about Spain a couple of weeks ago

The Fox News link running smoothly https://ustv247.tv/foxnewslive/

Liverpool = Scipio

Atalanta = Hannibal

NickPalmer said:

The Fox News link running smoothly https://ustv247.tv/foxnewslive/

Thanks for that. What's the official PB choice of US Network? Fox, CNN, or another?

TimT said:

Mysticrose said:

TimT said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm staying off the sauce tonight.

I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.

Japes.

How long do you hang your pheasant?

That wasn't to me but a good 10 days.

And I LOVE the sound of Casino Royale's recipe.

Yeah, apple/celeriac sounds a good combo with a gamy bird.

Roasted a duck with plums and a ground star anise/coriander seed/muscavado sugar/sea salt seasoning last night. Was delicious.

rcs1000 said:

peter_from_putney said:

TimT said:

peter_from_putney said:

It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?

From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.

No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.

I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.

The numbers so far are neither good not bad or Trump or Biden in Florida but I'd rather be Biden than Trump right now from what I am seeing.

Sure it's great to have your vote up in small counties but they are small.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1323735193602187272

Do we set any store by the Betfair state markets....Dems now fav in NC

NickPalmer said:

The Fox News link running smoothly https://ustv247.tv/foxnewslive/

I'd rather have a pineapple pizza. With extra marshmallows.

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

NerysHughes said:

This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/

It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.

We'll know within 48 hours of unblinding because it will financially sensitive news that will be need to be released to shareholders.

Am I misreading this? Does this not include the Phase 3 trial data?

“We confirm the MHRA’s (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine,” an AstraZeneca spokesman said. In rolling reviews, regulators are able to see clinical data in real time and have dialogue with drug makers on manufacturing processes and trials to accelerate the approval process.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-vaccin/britain-starts-accelerated-review-for-astrazenecas-potential-covid-19-vaccine-idUKKBN27H1BD

rcs1000 said:

peter_from_putney said:

TimT said:

peter_from_putney said:

It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?

From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.

No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.

I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.

I have been one of the most bearish on Biden on PB.

But I find this increasingly hard to argue with.

Broward has only ~10% on the day.

Sumter has ~8%.

Pin a little higher but still only ~16%.

There is less than three hours until the polls close.

guybrush said:

NickPalmer said:

The Fox News link running smoothly https://ustv247.tv/foxnewslive/

Thanks for that. What's the official PB choice of US Network? Fox, CNN, or another?

Politically I prefer CNN (Fox is relentlessly pro-Trump) but CNN seems to have some buffering issues.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big call from Paddy.

twitter.com/paddypower/status/1323734620547043328

Now if it was Spurs 5 up, totally different matter.

NickPalmer said:

guybrush said:

NickPalmer said:

The Fox News link running smoothly https://ustv247.tv/foxnewslive/

Thanks for that. What's the official PB choice of US Network? Fox, CNN, or another?

Politically I prefer CNN (Fox is relentlessly pro-Trump) but CNN seems to have some buffering issues.

I can easily fill in the buffering....Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad.

CNN have become as bad as Fox in terms of their utter relentless focus on Trump. Literally no other news gets reported some days, if he has tweeted something particular offensive.

NickPalmer said:

guybrush said:

NickPalmer said:

The Fox News link running smoothly https://ustv247.tv/foxnewslive/

Thanks for that. What's the official PB choice of US Network? Fox, CNN, or another?

Politically I prefer CNN (Fox is relentlessly pro-Trump) but CNN seems to have some buffering issues.

If you have access to Sky, CNN is available on Channel 506.

https://twitter.com/paulheintz/status/1323732725250088960

FrancisUrquhart said:

NickPalmer said:

guybrush said:

NickPalmer said:

The Fox News link running smoothly https://ustv247.tv/foxnewslive/

Thanks for that. What's the official PB choice of US Network? Fox, CNN, or another?

Politically I prefer CNN (Fox is relentlessly pro-Trump) but CNN seems to have some buffering issues.

I can easily fill in the buffering....Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad.

CNN have become as bad as Fox in terms of their utter relentless focus on Trump. Literally no other news gets reported some days, if he has tweeted something particular offensive.

I don't think Nick was after 'other news' tonight.

https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1323734365600296960

CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.

https://twitter.com/sarfrazmanzoor/status/1323737612394389505

Anabobazina said:

rcs1000 said:

peter_from_putney said:

TimT said:

peter_from_putney said:

It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?

From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.

No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.

I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.

I have been one of the most bearish on Biden on PB.

But I find this increasingly hard to argue with.

Broward has only ~10% on the day.

Sumter has ~8%.

Pin a little higher but still only ~16%.

There is less than three hours until the polls close.

Looking at the Sumpter figures with not much more to come in at all now, If NPA break 60/40 for Biden I estimate that gives him about 34% of the vote, Clinton got 29% in 2016. I don't know NPAs will break that way but it seems a fair estimate.so it does seem Bidens doing fairly well in the County of the Village.

guybrush said:

NickPalmer said:

The Fox News link running smoothly https://ustv247.tv/foxnewslive/

Thanks for that. What's the official PB choice of US Network? Fox, CNN, or another?

MSNBC for me.

NickPalmer said:

CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.

CNN are liars. What we will get at 10 is some detail of the polling like soccer mums are voting in this way or people with less than 2 legs have voted that way. They keep this up for hours. I am not sure if it is illegal for them to give any kind of forecast when the polls are still open but they don't. It is one of the most annoying channels I have ever come across.

NerysHughes said:

RobD said:

NerysHughes said:

Mysticrose said:

NerysHughes said:

rcs1000 said:

NerysHughes said:

This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/

None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.

I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.

I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.

There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.

I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.

My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.

Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.

I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?

It had seemed to me that we were reaching peak of infections. The government had put so much by their Tier system. It looked like it was beginning to work then out of nowhere a lockdown is announced based on some dodgy graphs. I could not see the logic.

My friend was simply told that the lockdown was to prevent the Country going mad when the vaccine was announced.

I think it was announced because of the projection bed capacity would be hit, not because of the deaths/day chart.

Let's hope there is some good news on this front regardless of why the lockdown happened.

mwjfrome17 said:

Do we set any store by the Betfair state markets....Dems now fav in NC</blockquote

Yes, I've been looking at this. Of the key states, NC has the largest movement from Dem 1.82 to 1.97 from yesterday. NC is my largest state bet and I'm tempted to add to my Biden position.

NerysHughes said:

RobD said:

NerysHughes said:

Mysticrose said:

NerysHughes said:

rcs1000 said:

NerysHughes said:

This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/

None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.

I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.

I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.

There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.

I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.

My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.

Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.

I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?

It had seemed to me that we were reaching peak of infections. The government had put so much by their Tier system. It looked like it was beginning to work then out of nowhere a lockdown is announced based on some dodgy graphs. I could not see the logic.

My friend was simply told that the lockdown was to prevent the Country going mad when the vaccine was announced.

I'm sorry but this is nonsense. It's not 'out of the blue.' I can't be bothered to go into this right now because it's election night but please go and read up on the data fed to the Quad group, regardless of whether you agree with it. The sharp increase in hospitalisations was critical. A friend of mine working in ICU says they are now at capacity and those on critical support are in their 40's.

It had far more to do with the NHS than to do with an imminent vaccine announcement creating a stampede of willing volunteers descending on their local GPs from housing estates up and down the land.

FrancisUrquhart said:

NickPalmer said:

CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.

Their exit polls aren't what see as exit polls. No bong of Big Ben and the computer predicts. CNN exit poll is 3hrs of deliberate click-baiting....coming up after the break more info from the exit poll.....how did left handed African American Women who like ice dancing see Biden choice of sports jacket....after this break, fantastic new information from our exit poll...this time, it will be this time, they tell us something useful....oh its how Mexican's see Trump choice of wall placement locations.

Sorry I hadn't seen this before making the same point. A truly awful channel.

NickPalmer said:

guybrush said:

NickPalmer said:

The Fox News link running smoothly https://ustv247.tv/foxnewslive/

Thanks for that. What's the official PB choice of US Network? Fox, CNN, or another?

Politically I prefer CNN (Fox is relentlessly pro-Trump) but CNN seems to have some buffering issues.

No buffering issues with CNN if watching on TV! (Virgin Channel 607). Apart from the election coverage, I quite like their "30 seconds of calm" slot each advertising break.

Away from the election, a petition has been started to get the government to publish the details of the PHE model that was used on Saturday to justify National Lockdown 2.0 and which claimed 4,000 dead a day by end of the month.

https://www.change.org/p/boris-johnson-publish-the-modelling-which-states-there-will-be-4-000-deaths-a-day-from-covid-19

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

NickPalmer said:

CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.

Their exit polls aren't what see as exit polls. No bong of Big Ben and the computer predicts. CNN exit poll is 3hrs of deliberate click-baiting....coming up after the break more info from the exit poll.....how did left handed African American Women who like ice dancing see Biden choice of sports jacket....after this break, fantastic new information from our exit poll...this time, it will be this time, they tell us something useful....oh its how Mexican's see Trump choice of wall placement locations.

Sorry I hadn't seen this before making the same point. A truly awful channel.

Can we just have Dimbleby et al. to do a UK version of the US results?

DavidL said:

NickPalmer said:

CNN has settled down now. They're saying the first exit polls will be in 35 minutes (10pm our time). Biden currently chatting about integration in pleasant but slightly rambling way.

CNN are liars. What we will get at 10 is some detail of the polling like soccer mums are voting in this way or people with less than 2 legs have voted that way. They keep this up for hours. I am not sure if it is illegal for them to give any kind of forecast when the polls are still open but they don't. It is one of the most annoying channels I have ever come across.

If veterans with one leg are voting Biden then it's a landslide frankly.

RobD said:

Anabobazina said:

RobD said:

NerysHughes said:

Mysticrose said:

NerysHughes said:

rcs1000 said:

NerysHughes said:

This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/

None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.

I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.

I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.

There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.

I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.

My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.

Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.

I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?

There's a theory going around that the government has to go into heavy lockdown prior to any vaccine announcement, as otherwise everyone would just party like shit and get infected before they get injected.

Not my view, but it's widely held.

Hm, given vaccination is a multi-month affair, that might happen regardless.

A Multi-month affair, sounds like typical lockdown ;-)

Cuyahoga turnout now rising rapidly.

Before today 40%
Today so far 23%
Running total 63%

https://eu.heraldtribune.com/elections/results/2020-11-03/

Trumps winning

MikeL said:

Cuyahoga turnout now rising rapidly.

Before today 40%
Today so far 23%
Running total 63%

Ohhhhhh Yes.

TheScreamingEagles said:

America needs a Sir John Curtice (pbuh).

Wolf Blitzer just said some states will be faster or slower...

That is not the analysis we need

Scott_xP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

America needs a Sir John Curtice (pbuh).

Wolf Blitzer just said some states will be faster or slower...

That is not the analysis we need

Will some states be red, and some blue?

stodge said:

Carnyx said:

stodge said:

Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.

What reasons do they adduce?

There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".

Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".

Thank you!

Scott_xP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

America needs a Sir John Curtice (pbuh).

Wolf Blitzer just said some states will be faster or slower...

That is not the analysis we need

Never in the field of human onomastics has a more exciting name been carried by a less dynamic man...

RobD said:

Scott_xP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

America needs a Sir John Curtice (pbuh).

Wolf Blitzer just said some states will be faster or slower...

That is not the analysis we need

Will some states be red, and some blue?

With 2+ hours until the first polls actually close and no exit polling what else can you do to fill the time.

NerysHughes said:

Mysticrose said:

NerysHughes said:

RobD said:

NerysHughes said:

Mysticrose said:

NerysHughes said:

rcs1000 said:

NerysHughes said:

This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/

None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.

I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.

I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.

There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.

I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.

My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.

Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.

I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?

It had seemed to me that we were reaching peak of infections. The government had put so much by their Tier system. It looked like it was beginning to work then out of nowhere a lockdown is announced based on some dodgy graphs. I could not see the logic.

My friend was simply told that the lockdown was to prevent the Country going mad when the vaccine was announced.

I'm sorry but this is nonsense. It's not 'out of the blue.' I can't be bothered to go into this right now because it's election night but please go and read up on the data fed to the Quad group, regardless of whether you agree with it. The sharp increase in hospitalisations was critical. A friend of mine working in ICU says they are now at capacity and those on critical support are in their 40's.

It had far more to do with the NHS than to do with an imminent vaccine announcement creating a stampede of willing volunteers descending on their local GPs from housing estates up and down the land.

Look at this interview with Raab on Friday

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/dominic-raab-refuses-to-deny-possibility-of-tier-4-covid-restrictions

Within 24 hours a lockdown was announced

Argh. This is just how conspiracy theories flourish.

Look, no offence but I can't do this right now. Things are warming up across the pond.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1323734365600296960

FAKE NEWS

Mysticrose said:

NerysHughes said:

Mysticrose said:

NerysHughes said:

RobD said:

NerysHughes said:

Mysticrose said:

NerysHughes said:

rcs1000 said:

NerysHughes said:

This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/

None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.

Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.

I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.

I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.

There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.

I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.

My friend who works at Porton Down told me this on Saturday. I did not put it on here straight away as I had some doubts, but now the nursing magazine is stating that the vaccine is imminent I have no reason to doubt him as the timeline stated is exactly what he told me.

Boris did look happy when he said things will be much better by the Spring today.

I'm curious, why did you/they think it was linked to the lockdown announcement?

It had seemed to me that we were reaching peak of infections. The government had put so much by their Tier system. It looked like it was beginning to work then out of nowhere a lockdown is announced based on some dodgy graphs. I could not see the logic.

My friend was simply told that the lockdown was to prevent the Country going mad when the vaccine was announced.

I'm sorry but this is nonsense. It's not 'out of the blue.' I can't be bothered to go into this right now because it's election night but please go and read up on the data fed to the Quad group, regardless of whether you agree with it. The sharp increase in hospitalisations was critical. A friend of mine working in ICU says they are now at capacity and those on critical support are in their 40's.

It had far more to do with the NHS than to do with an imminent vaccine announcement creating a stampede of willing volunteers descending on their local GPs from housing estates up and down the land.

Look at this interview with Raab on Friday

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/dominic-raab-refuses-to-deny-possibility-of-tier-4-covid-restrictions

Within 24 hours a lockdown was announced

Argh. This is just how conspiracy theories flourish.

Look, no offence but I can't do this right now. Things are warming up across the pond.

Raab is likely nowhere near the decision making process. So that interview is not at all surprising.

spudgfsh said:

RobD said:

spudgfsh said:

RobD said:

Scott_xP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

America needs a Sir John Curtice (pbuh).

Wolf Blitzer just said some states will be faster or slower...

That is not the analysis we need

Will some states be red, and some blue?

With 2+ hours until the first polls actually close and no exit polling what else can you do to fill the time.

Start the show two hours later?

that would make sense but this is 24hour rolling news

BBC manages

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/bjoewolf/status/1323726374264340485

Young voters coming out to vote?

That's bad news for Trump?

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/paulheintz/status/1323732725250088960

Bit late in the day to make that public - has he just realised Trump’s about to lose ?

“By the time this is over, no one will admit to having supported...”

Artist said:

Dems out to 2.66 in Florida on Betfair.

Any obvious reason?

By my reckoning when you allocate Non Dems/GOP he is doing worse than 2016.

Here

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

Here

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=bro

and in almost all the Counties reporting live


What am i missing?

I am about to bet on JB for Florida what are the reasons not to??

Mysticrose said:

TimT said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm staying off the sauce tonight.

I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.

Japes.

How long do you hang your pheasant?

That wasn't to me but a good 10 days.

And I LOVE the sound of Casino Royale's recipe.

It does sound nice. We'vbe been experimenting with grouse breast braised in a pan with beetroot added near the end, served with red cabbage. Same sort of earthy/sweet quality to go with the game.