WH2020: The spreads latest and tonight’s PB election zoom gathering – politicalbetting.com
WH2020: The spreads latest and tonight’s PB election zoom gathering – politicalbetting.com
The Zoom meeting will start just before midnight and is being hosted by Barnesian. Click this linkhttps://us02web.zoom.us/j/2694321666
Comments
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If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?0
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2nd like Big Don.0
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This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/1 -
No, I'll be here, editing PB until 5ish.FrancisUrquhart said:If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?
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It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/0 -
Evening again all
Unfortunately, I have to work for a living so won't be joining the PB Zoom meeting but have a fantastic and successful night and morning playing the markets.
There's money to be made (and lost as well of course).1 -
Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.FrancisUrquhart said:
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/0 -
All data needs to be posted on here - very hard to take in data verbally on Zoom.2
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One thing I'm quite sure of is that the various vax companies would have released far more and more positive data earlier had the US election not been on.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/1 -
I have to work, too.stodge said:Evening again all
Unfortunately, I have to work for a living so won't be joining the PB Zoom meeting but have a fantastic and successful night and morning playing the markets.
There's money to be made (and lost as well of course).
Haven’t yet decided whether to stay up anyway.
See you on the other side. 0 -
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It's a nice idea but I can't see myself tracking various websites (inc. PB), twitter feeds, watching CNN and zooming all at the same time, so I shall give zoom a miss but have fun!FrancisUrquhart said:If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?
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Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.NerysHughes said:
Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.FrancisUrquhart said:
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/0 -
Can you explain the context?Pulpstar said:0 -
I would guess 5% will refusestodge said:
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.NerysHughes said:
Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.FrancisUrquhart said:
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/1 -
The geographically challenged Americans put the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East along with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles do not like the Cowboys.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can you explain the context?Pulpstar said:0 -
In 1936, the Literary Digest poll famously suggested Alf Landon would win 57-43 in the popular vote and a landslide in the EC.
This led H L Mencken to declare that the Republicans ‘could beat him [Roosevelt] with a Chinaman.’
Perhaps they should have tried. Even given the incredible level of racism of America in the 1930s it could hardly have been a worse thumping than they got - 46 states to 2 and 523-8 in the Electoral College.
I am very much hoping that tonight Trafalgar ends by looking even stupider than the Literary Digest did, and for the same reasons.2 -
Thank you.tlg86 said:
The geographically challenged Americans put the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East along with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles do not like the Cowboys.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can you explain the context?Pulpstar said:0 -
Imagine a plane over Anfield with a banner saying Boris supports the ToffeesTheScreamingEagles said:
Can you explain the context?Pulpstar said:0 -
I hope not. I think most of the serious chat will be on PB. That way everyone will have a say and it will be in writing for the record and to scroll back.FrancisUrquhart said:If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?
The Zoom meeting will probably be a bit chaotic and I may have to mute it occasionally if it gets too out of hand like a noisy nursery.
It will be a chance to put faces to names. Please change your real name to your PB name and mute except when you are speaking. It's a bit of an experiment.
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What reasons do they adduce?stodge said:
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.NerysHughes said:
Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.FrancisUrquhart said:
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/0 -
Like flying a "Boris loves Man U" banner round LiverpoolTheScreamingEagles said:
Can you explain the context?Pulpstar said:0 -
Evening all! Seems like the FL result is going to be illuminating, if Trump hangs on it could be a late one. And some inconsiderate idiot (that will be me) organised a Teams meeting at work tomorrow morning.0
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Two stacks loaded up onto Betfair. Quite where it's heading yet I'm not sure.1
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jamesdoyle said:
Imagine a plane over Anfield with a banner saying Boris supports the ToffeesTheScreamingEagles said:
Can you explain the context?Pulpstar said:
Cheers.Pulpstar said:
Like flying a "Boris loves Man U" banner round LiverpoolTheScreamingEagles said:
Can you explain the context?Pulpstar said:0 -
Tim B could explain it...TheScreamingEagles said:Can you explain the context?
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Sorry to be dense - what does it mean?Pulpstar said:0 -
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Hard to imagine that could make the Scousers hate him more than they already do.Pulpstar said:
Like flying a "Boris loves Man U" banner round LiverpoolTheScreamingEagles said:
Can you explain the context?Pulpstar said:0 -
You haven't invited Donald have you?Barnesian said:
I hope not. I think most of the serious chat will be on PB. That way everyone will have a say and it will be in writing for the record and to scroll back.FrancisUrquhart said:If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?
The Zoom meeting will probably be a bit chaotic and I may have to mute it occasionally if it gets too out of hand like a noisy nursery.
It will be a chance to put faces to names. Please change your real name to your PB name and mute except when you are speaking. It's a bit of an experiment.
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Via Twitter - Congresswoman Gwen Moore (D) of Milwaukee projects turnout in the city will reach 89% as opposed to 61% in 2016.0
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He thought the sign outside said erection?Scott_xP said:0 -
@Sunil_Prasannan you don’t have a vote. You should indulge your practices AWAY from a polling booth anyway...Scott_xP said:1 -
Is Farage in the plane again? Is it going to crash again?Pulpstar said:
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Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
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It would be nice to see a landslide, rcp polls hopefully crap0
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It does indeed.Richard_Tyndall said:
I hadn't heard about that. It seems a surprisingly sensible way to go.Mysticrose said:
On this point, is this not where the 7 'Mass Vaccination Centres' come in? I thought the idea was to vaccinate at those rather than GP surgeries?Richard_Tyndall said:
I may have mentioned this before but a friend of mine is chief pharmacist for one of the health trusts. He has already spoken of the fact that the information he is being given is that the vaccine will be in two or three jabs, with the jabs needing to be prepared in a medium at the point of delivery and being kept at -70 (he actually said -80) degrees. He was very dubious about the ability of our current health care infrastructure to deliver a viable mass vaccination campaign under those circumstances.OldKingCole said:
Minus 70! You sure about that? I’m out of touch now, but I think it highly unlikely that any surgery has the kit to reach that sort of temperature.NerysHughes said:O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare including details of how to store the vaccine at minus 70. Over 85s and front line staff will be first. First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.
I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.
https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/10/07/britain-prepares-to-roll-out-a-covid-19-vaccine0 -
Of course you couldn't do the same with Man U, because all the supporters are in London.jamesdoyle said:
Imagine a plane over Anfield with a banner saying Boris supports the ToffeesTheScreamingEagles said:
Can you explain the context?Pulpstar said:
On another football note, I wonder if the way to get some of the reluctants in Liverpool to volunteer is to give them a saliva test on the way into a home game at Anfield - which they'll be allowed to attend if negative.
Not only would it get them tested, they'd do their very best not to catch it in the week prior.
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There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".Carnyx said:
What reasons do they adduce?stodge said:
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".
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Polls suggest 20-25%NerysHughes said:
I would guess 5% will refusestodge said:
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.NerysHughes said:
Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.FrancisUrquhart said:
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/0 -
I'll be on the site, but not the Zoom.FrancisUrquhart said:If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?
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Maybe he confused the polling station with the sperm bank - we've all done itTheScreamingEagles said:
He thought the sign outside said erection?
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I'd not excuse these historical comments, and condemnation should be the first thought. Sometimes though there was simply an expression of the day that was clearly offensive, but wasn't meaningly so. I'd suggest that this quote is of that sort.ydoethur said:In 1936, the Literary Digest poll famously suggested Alf Landon would win 57-43 in the popular vote and a landslide in the EC.
This led H L Mencken to declare that the Republicans ‘could beat him [Roosevelt] with a Chinaman.’
Perhaps they should have tried. Even given the incredible level of racism of America in the 1930s it could hardly have been a worse thumping than they got - 46 states to 2 and 523-8 in the Electoral College.
I am very much hoping that tonight Trafalgar ends by looking even stupider than the Literary Digest did, and for the same reasons.
All (or nearly all, and of whatever race) of our ancestors were racist. We can't dismiss everything they said because of that.0 -
There may well be two vaccines by December, one which is much easier to storeOldKingCole said:
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.0 -
After a few days of hospital R not following case R the correlation is back which is a relief.0
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‘When I said put it in the slot, sir, that’s not quite what I meant.’stodge said:
Maybe he confused the polling station with the sperm bank - we've all done itTheScreamingEagles said:
He thought the sign outside said erection?0 -
I'll be in the land of nod by midnight. For those staying up, have an enjoyable and profitable night.
Hopefully I'll wake up to be greeted by good news.
New Zealand, BC, Queensland. May the run continue!0 -
The Cowboys are the Dallas American Football team in the NFL and this season they are crap beyond words. Jerry Jones is their owner and reviled in much of US society.Benpointer said:
Sorry to be dense - what does it mean?Pulpstar said:
PS Philadelphia usually has a good football team, the Eagles, but they are also crap this season. The Cowboys and the Eagles are in the same Division and are fierce rivals.0 -
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.0 -
'When I said draw a dick on the ballot paper I didn't mean from life...'Scott_xP said:0 -
You wait until they release the 5G 'update', then we will all be slaves...stodge said:
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".Carnyx said:
What reasons do they adduce?stodge said:
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".0 -
Someone has lost their deposit.Scott_xP said:1 -
I can report that a leader of a major UK political party (Alan "Howling Laud" hope) reckons Trump by a country mile0
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TheScreamingEagles said:
He thought the sign outside said erection?Scott_xP said:
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It causes mass memory loss. We’ll spend our days asking ‘who are we? Who are we?’DennisBets said:
You wait until they release the 5G 'update', then we will all be slaves...stodge said:
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".Carnyx said:
What reasons do they adduce?stodge said:
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".0 -
I'm much the same will be following CNN as well, i much prefer their coverage to the other networks, but I'll keep PB open to see reactions as the results start coming inBenpointer said:
It's a nice idea but I can't see myself tracking various websites (inc. PB), twitter feeds, watching CNN and zooming all at the same time, so I shall give zoom a miss but have fun!FrancisUrquhart said:If everybody is Zooming, does this mean the actual site is likely to be very quiet?
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Not if Trump endorses it.NerysHughes said:
I would guess 5% will refusestodge said:
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.NerysHughes said:
Well the data must be good. I also heard about this from a friend who works at Porton Down who confirmed that the vaccine works.FrancisUrquhart said:
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
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Wait till they find they need to have had it to travel abroad.stodge said:
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".Carnyx said:
What reasons do they adduce?stodge said:
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".0 -
The Cowboys are not last in the division though...TimT said:The Cowboys are the Dallas American Football team in the NFL and this season they are crap beyond words. Jerry Jones is their own and reviled in much of US society.
PS Philadelphia usually has a good football team, the Eagles, but they are also crap this season. The Cowboys and the Eagles are in the same Division and are fierce rivals.
The NFC East is the 2020 of divisions in the NFL.0 -
It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?0
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At least there’s one coming man in this election.SandyRentool said:
Someone has lost their deposit.Scott_xP said:0 -
Given the vaccines apparently seem to make it less serious, but don't stop you catching it, he might be right. Anyway, he's not going to get it soon anyway.stodge said:
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".Carnyx said:
What reasons do they adduce?stodge said:
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".0 -
We'll know within 48 hours of unblinding because it will financially sensitive news that will be need to be released to shareholders.FrancisUrquhart said:
It was revealed last week that the data for the phase 3 both was now being looked at.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/1 -
We don't know any of this yet, because NONE OF THE VACCINE TRIALS HAS BEEN UNBLINDED YET.JohnLilburne said:
Given the vaccines apparently seem to make it less serious, but don't stop you catching it, he might be right. Anyway, he's not going to get it soon anyway.stodge said:
There's a suspicion about the contents of the vaccine and I heard one person argue it would be a way of making people dependent on the Government and effectively "slaves".Carnyx said:
What reasons do they adduce?stodge said:
Listening to people in my local cafe in the Barking Road, there's huge resistance to a vaccine and I just wonder how many people will, for whatever reason, refuse it.
Perhaps more cogently one younger man argued the coronavirus "didn't affect young people so we don't need a vaccine".0 -
I'm staying off the sauce tonight.
I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.
Japes.4 -
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.peter_from_putney said:It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
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Dry ice isn’t very high tech.OldKingCole said:
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
And from what I’ve read the vaccine lasts around a day at room temp ?0 -
Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?peter_from_putney said:It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.0 -
Quick question - Why didn't Trump bring up Biden's opposition to the death penalty in the campaign ?
If you're running on getting your base out that's an obvious fault line to exploit.0 -
The flu jab also needs to be kept very cold, doesn't it? And that doesn't have that many problems.Nigelb said:
Dry ice isn’t very high tech.OldKingCole said:
Agree. However, I can’t see the average surgery having the storage technology. And, as one of the commenters said, there’s got to be a time allowed to get the individual doses....... ?preloaded syringe ..... to get warm enough not to have a deleterious effect on the patient!NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Maintaining the cold chain will be difficult, although not impossible.
Case as stated, not easy, but not impossible, and, of course, very welcome.
And from what I’ve read the vaccine lasts around a day at room temp ?0 -
How long do you hang your pheasant?Casino_Royale said:I'm staying off the sauce tonight.
I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.
Japes.1 -
Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.rcs1000 said:
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.0 -
92% ballot drop off rate is way higher than they'd have got if the election day deadline hadn't been forced on people.Scott_xP said:0
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Why would the UK wait if it has met UK requirements?Chris said:
Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.rcs1000 said:
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.0 -
Looking at the current Pinealls data and assuming
A) GOP and Dem vote 100% in alignment with party registration in both 2016 and 2020
and
2) Trump and Biden get an identical proportion of Unaffilaited and other (36.5% and 40% respectively) then Biden is currently 110 votes ahead.
Trump won by 5500 in 20161 -
That wasn't to me but a good 10 days.TimT said:
How long do you hang your pheasant?Casino_Royale said:I'm staying off the sauce tonight.
I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.
Japes.
And I LOVE the sound of Casino Royale's recipe.1 -
Well I can't speak for Casino, but this time of year I'd give it 4 days and in January (when I think pheasant is at its best) 7TimT said:
How long do you hang your pheasant?Casino_Royale said:I'm staying off the sauce tonight.
I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.
Japes.0 -
No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.TimT said:
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.peter_from_putney said:It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
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Depends on if it’s a hen or a cock.TimT said:
How long do you hang your pheasant?Casino_Royale said:I'm staying off the sauce tonight.
I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.
Japes.0 -
There's a belief that it loses your more than it gains if you're GOPer.Pulpstar said:Quick question - Why didn't Trump bring up Biden's opposition to the death penalty in the campaign ?
If you're running on getting your base out that's an obvious fault line to exploit.
An overwhelming majority of death penalty supporters were voting GOP anyway, but might put off floating voters.
You've gone from over 80% support for the death penalty in the 1990s to barely over 50% now.0 -
From what I can see, the GOP vote in a lot of the mid-sized counties Trump carried comfortably is down quite a bit. Polk the gap seems down a lot. Only 7500* reported to have voted on the day so far. Of course, that may reflect incomplete reporting rather than reality.rcs1000 said:
Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?peter_from_putney said:It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
* 8000 now. With just 3 hours of voting left, the GOP is just 4300 ahead on the party vote, whereas Trump carried Polk by 40k in 20160 -
I thought one of the advantages of the AZ vaccine was that it didn't require very cold storage, but just ordinary cold storage. Maybe I'm thinking of the Pfizer one.0
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I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.rcs1000 said:
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.0 -
I'm with @TimT, President Trump wants high "on the day" voting to win this, and so far we haven't really seen it.peter_from_putney said:
No so ...with Betfair, Trump is currently 4/6 to win Florida, Biden is 6/4 against.TimT said:
From my reading of the numbers, Trump is doing badly in FL.peter_from_putney said:It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
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You are pureeing the celeriac with plenty of butter and cream I trust?Casino_Royale said:I'm staying off the sauce tonight.
I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.
Japes.1 -
The Big Short is the superior wall street movie!Casino_Royale said:I'm staying off the sauce tonight.
I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.
Japes.2 -
The mismatch with the forecasting models is extraordinary. YouGov's MRP forecasts a mean of 382, 95% confidence range 314 to 412.peter_from_putney said:It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
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The rising case load in the UK is great for getting vaccine data!Chris said:
Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.rcs1000 said:
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.0 -
The GOP share in Sumter has been trending DOWNWARDS since about 1500 GMT. At a glacial pace, sure, about 0.01 points per hour, but downward nevertheless.rcs1000 said:
Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?peter_from_putney said:It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
This I cannot get my head around.0 -
I know you're pumping that theory but it's rather esoteric, if I may say.NerysHughes said:
I will be amazed if there is not an announcement on the Oxford Vaccine within 2 weeks. Its why this lockdown suddenly happened.rcs1000 said:
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.
There are plenty of other reasons, whether bona fide or not, why the lockdown happened now. Not least the serious situation in critical care.
I am not aware that Michael Gove once mentioned the issue of vaccine timing.0 -
It's very nice roastedAnabobazina said:
You are pureeing the celeriac with plenty of butter and cream I trust?Casino_Royale said:I'm staying off the sauce tonight.
I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.
Japes.0 -
Yeah, apple/celeriac sounds a good combo with a gamy bird.Mysticrose said:
That wasn't to me but a good 10 days.TimT said:
How long do you hang your pheasant?Casino_Royale said:I'm staying off the sauce tonight.
I am however cooking a pheasant breast with celeriac and apple and may watch Wall Street before midnight to get me in the mood.
Japes.
And I LOVE the sound of Casino Royale's recipe.0 -
TimT said:
From what I can see, the GOP vote in a lot of the mid-sized counties Trump carried comfortably is down quite a bit. Polk the gap seems down a lot. Only 7500* reported to have voted on the day so far. Of course, that may reflect incomplete reporting rather than reality.rcs1000 said:
Has Trump's implied probability of winning Florida moved much?peter_from_putney said:It seems odd to me that the prospect of Trump winning in Florida does not appear to have affected Biden's ECV spread, currently at 310 mid, or am I missing something?
I could be completely wrong, but the relatively low levels of 'on the day' voting in Florida don't bode particularly well for the President.
* 8000 now. With just 3 hours of voting left, the GOP is just 4300 ahead on the party vote, whereas Trump carried Polk by 40k in 20160 -
Quite.TimT said:
Why would the UK wait if it has met UK requirements?Chris said:
Hopefully not a month away from the completion of the British AstraZeneca trial. The implication seems to be that the UK may authorise the Oxford vaccine on the basis of the British trial without waiting for the results of the US trial.rcs1000 said:
None of the vaccine trials have been unblinded yet. This is good news, but until enough people in the placebo group get CV19, there is no official news.NerysHughes said:This magazine would not publish this unless it was correct:
https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Statistically, we're any day now for Pfizer/BioNTech, and probably a month away for AZN/Oxford and Moderna.0 -
Boris has long hated Scousers:ydoethur said:
Hard to imagine that could make the Scousers hate him more than they already do.Pulpstar said:
Like flying a "Boris loves Man U" banner round LiverpoolTheScreamingEagles said:
Can you explain the context?Pulpstar said:
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2004/oct/16/pressandpublishing.conservativeparty0 -
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