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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    The Cleveland Clinic has developed a coronavirus test that will be able to deliver results in just eight hours.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8104803/Top-hospital-Cleveland-Clinic-develops-coronavirus-test-deliver-results-EIGHT-HOURS.html

    An instant or near instant test is a big way we beat this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708

    Italy asked for help from the EU.

    twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1238128960388677641?s=20

    I think every country is going to need similar from China.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited March 2020
    Only banning public gatherings of more than 500 is good news for us County Cricket members, as we will remain unaffected.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,054
    edited March 2020
    FTSE getting close to 11% down. Dow 9.5% down.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,596

    TOPPING said:

    Must be coordinated. Gives Sturgeon some kudos and distances Boris from the nitty gritty. He doesn't need to acquire a perception of gravitas, has not been his style.

    My thoughts too - nice example of the United Kingdom working together - Arlene next week? May be a canny move by Number 10.
    Arlene was blabbing on Monday:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51796305
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,571
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    kinabalu said:
    Trump to leave before end of first term is 1.1 on Betfair i.e. 10% chance.
    Trump definitely didn't look that well giving last night's address so I've laid up 30 odd quid of my green on him for GOP nominee. Probably nothing but you can imagine how that market would flip if he had it.
    I've followed your lead at 1.1. Not matched yet.
  • DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Sturgeon stealing Johnson's thunder. :p

    She's asking to be excluded from COBR frankly. It's unwise.
    Its absolutely shameful. What does she think she achieves, look at me, I take more decisive action than Boris because I do a presser 90mins before him?
    Didn't Arlene do exactly the same after the previous COBR?
    Sky and BBC both pulled away when questions started

    However, she has made herself look untrustworthy
    Aye, a shocking contrast to irreproachable BJ.
    This is a UK wide crisis and she is playing politics with it

    I expect she will receive widescale criticsm

    She could have coordinated it with Boris. It is not a good look
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,095
    edited March 2020
    CatMan said:

    FTSE getting close to 11% down. Dow 9.5% down.

    Apocalyptic stuff, if it closes there for the day.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,741
    Were the ECB not supposed to be acting today? No cut in interest rates. "Stimulus" measures. Not enough.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,426
    Pulpstar said:

    Thermometers online are selling like crazy. Just found one for under a tenner incl delivery, not easy mind.

    I bought mine a while back, when Foxy suggested what we needed for our own home coronavirus-monitoring kit.....
  • eekeek Posts: 28,136
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Must be coordinated. Gives Sturgeon some kudos and distances Boris from the nitty gritty. He doesn't need to acquire a perception of gravitas, has not been his style.

    Only (very big) problem is that is the Sturge speaking for the UK or for North Britain? Leaves us punters confused.

    Dribbling news out bit by bit makes sense at the moment -
    I think we need one single voice. We need an Ian McDonald.

    I think the DCMO was pretty impressive (as indeed I have to say was the Q&A itself) with BoJo.
    For facts yes, for bans on things (such as this ban) it makes sense that the bits get announced over time
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    If the COBR meeting comes to a decision I don't see a problem with the responsible people making the announcement of that decision for their area at an appropriate time for them. Personally I think COBR could do with more openness in the decisions made and the rationale for them and the problem of staggered announcements would go away. But that's not Sturgeon's or Foster's problem.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,741
    CatMan said:

    FTSE getting close to 11% down. Dow 9.5% down.

    FTSE 100 9.7% down.

    Which is bad enough.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    Why is the FTSE down more than the Dow, do punters have some intangible faith in the USA ?

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,809
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Must be coordinated. Gives Sturgeon some kudos and distances Boris from the nitty gritty. He doesn't need to acquire a perception of gravitas, has not been his style.

    Only (very big) problem is that is the Sturge speaking for the UK or for North Britain? Leaves us punters confused.

    Dribbling news out bit by bit makes sense at the moment -
    I think we need one single voice. We need an Ian McDonald.

    I think the DCMO was pretty impressive (as indeed I have to say was the Q&A itself) with BoJo.
    For facts yes, for bans on things (such as this ban) it makes sense that the bits get announced over time
    Maybe but people (like me) will hear snippets from Nicola Sturgeon and dismiss it as being for Scotland only. Indeed is it for Scotland only?

    Not a huge point, that said.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    FF43 said:

    If the COBR meeting comes to a decision I don't see a problem with the responsible people making the announcement of that decision for their area at an appropriate time for them. Personally I think COBR could do with more openness in the decisions made and the rationale for them and the problem of staggered announcements would go away. But that's not Sturgeon's or Foster's problem.

    Perhaps would could televise it and have a phone in vote on the crucial issues? Or maybe a Twitter poll, that seems to be full of experts.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    isam said:

    isam said:

    .

    The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.

    How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
    How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
    Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
    If those 10 would have died from flu anyway, likely as they were elderly and ill, is that a sign we might all be over worrying, and the media attention on Coronavirus is hiding the possibilty that in terms of deaths, there is no change on a normal year if you combine flu deaths and CV deaths?
    Can you get flu and corona simultaneously or does having one preclude having the other (at any given time)?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,136
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Must be coordinated. Gives Sturgeon some kudos and distances Boris from the nitty gritty. He doesn't need to acquire a perception of gravitas, has not been his style.

    Only (very big) problem is that is the Sturge speaking for the UK or for North Britain? Leaves us punters confused.

    Dribbling news out bit by bit makes sense at the moment -
    I think we need one single voice. We need an Ian McDonald.

    I think the DCMO was pretty impressive (as indeed I have to say was the Q&A itself) with BoJo.
    For facts yes, for bans on things (such as this ban) it makes sense that the bits get announced over time
    Maybe but people (like me) will hear snippets from Nicola Sturgeon and dismiss it as being for Scotland only. Indeed is it for Scotland only?

    Not a huge point, that said.
    It's now in your head - when Boris announces it later it won't be a shock. I suspect there will be something else there that is a shock as well but half the news is already out there being circulated.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,851

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Sturgeon stealing Johnson's thunder. :p

    She's asking to be excluded from COBR frankly. It's unwise.
    Its absolutely shameful. What does she think she achieves, look at me, I take more decisive action than Boris because I do a presser 90mins before him?
    Didn't Arlene do exactly the same after the previous COBR?
    Sky and BBC both pulled away when questions started

    However, she has made herself look untrustworthy
    Aye, a shocking contrast to irreproachable BJ.
    This is a UK wide crisis and she is playing politics with it

    I expect she will receive widescale criticsm

    She could have coordinated it with Boris. It is not a good look
    It's virtually lèse-majesté!

    The PM and party (& obviously their breathless fangirls) that stages collective walkouts when the SNP ask a HoC question expected better from the ghastly Scottish Nationalist Party.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited March 2020
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    ClippP said:

    At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.

    There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.

    Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.

    But they are definitely, brave Minister.

    That's not necessarily accurate.

    Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.

    Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
    No I don't think so.

    I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
    I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
    So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
    We're still allowing flights from China and Korea.....
    And from the USA, where they do not test hardly anybody.....
    And Italy. There's one setting off from Milan to Edinburgh soon.

    I think we are under an obligation to repatriate our citizens, like Barnesian, who went out to Italy.

    If they follow the advice and self-isolate on return, I think that is OK.
    I think one of the things that we have to think about is whether we trust them to do that or force them to do that. Compulsory quarantine would also bring it home to people how reckless they were going to the likes of Italy in the first place and discourage others from going to similar locations where flights are still available.
    Reckless? Simon Calder was actively encouraging it two weeks ago! To old people! I was literally pulling my hair out listening to it.

    No-one was on the phone from PHE ringing up 5Live to tell him stfu.

    When all this is analysed in years to come they will think we were *mad*.
    Even worse, innumerate.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ47glxcxr0
  • eekeek Posts: 28,136
    Pulpstar said:

    Why is the FTSE down more than the Dow, do punters have some intangible faith in the USA ?

    Or americans don't fully understand the full scale / size of the issue yet
  • TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Must be coordinated. Gives Sturgeon some kudos and distances Boris from the nitty gritty. He doesn't need to acquire a perception of gravitas, has not been his style.

    Only (very big) problem is that is the Sturge speaking for the UK or for North Britain? Leaves us punters confused.

    Dribbling news out bit by bit makes sense at the moment -
    I think we need one single voice. We need an Ian McDonald.

    I think the DCMO was pretty impressive (as indeed I have to say was the Q&A itself) with BoJo.
    For facts yes, for bans on things (such as this ban) it makes sense that the bits get announced over time
    Maybe but people (like me) will hear snippets from Nicola Sturgeon and dismiss it as being for Scotland only. Indeed is it for Scotland only?

    Not a huge point, that said.
    Scotland First. She can't have a second referendum right now but she can run Scotland like it has already declared UDI...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,571
    isam said:

    I was talked out of selling EasyJet shares at £11 and now they're 806p

    I bought Go Ahead (GOG) a bus company, for £21.32 on 21 Jan in anticipation of a big boost from infrastructure spending up North. We all know how Boris loves buses. They went up a couple of quid then corona came along and I baled out at £19.69 on 2 March - ten days ago for a loss of £2K. They are now trading at £10.85.
  • DavidL said:

    Were the ECB not supposed to be acting today? No cut in interest rates. "Stimulus" measures. Not enough.
    Markets unhappy with ECB response.

    Not a surprise with Christine Lagarde in charge
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,700
    Pulpstar said:

    Why is the FTSE down more than the Dow, do punters have some intangible faith in the USA ?

    Americans mentally about a week behind Europe in terms of understanding the impacts? And some incorrectly thinking the US is better protected than Europe?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    .

    The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.

    How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
    How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
    Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
    If those 10 would have died from flu anyway, likely as they were elderly and ill, is that a sign we might all be over worrying, and the media attention on Coronavirus is hiding the possibilty that in terms of deaths, there is no change on a normal year if you combine flu deaths and CV deaths?
    Can you get flu and corona simultaneously or does having one preclude having the other (at any given time)?
    I really wouldn't know. It's probably too difficult to find out, but I'd like to know if the death/infection rate of flu was up or down this winter
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Testing, testing:

    For what it's worth:
    USA Tests: 8,554 Positive cases: 1,374 Ratio: 16.1%
    UK Tests: 29,764 Positive cases: 491 Ratio: 1.6%

    Where do you get the USA Tests number from?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,809
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Must be coordinated. Gives Sturgeon some kudos and distances Boris from the nitty gritty. He doesn't need to acquire a perception of gravitas, has not been his style.

    Only (very big) problem is that is the Sturge speaking for the UK or for North Britain? Leaves us punters confused.

    Dribbling news out bit by bit makes sense at the moment -
    I think we need one single voice. We need an Ian McDonald.

    I think the DCMO was pretty impressive (as indeed I have to say was the Q&A itself) with BoJo.
    For facts yes, for bans on things (such as this ban) it makes sense that the bits get announced over time
    Maybe but people (like me) will hear snippets from Nicola Sturgeon and dismiss it as being for Scotland only. Indeed is it for Scotland only?

    Not a huge point, that said.
    It's now in your head - when Boris announces it later it won't be a shock. I suspect there will be something else there that is a shock as well but half the news is already out there being circulated.
    I've no idea what she has been saying - I've been too busy occupied with discussing why and on whose behalf she is saying it!

    Something about free owls?
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    DavidL said:

    Were the ECB not supposed to be acting today? No cut in interest rates. "Stimulus" measures. Not enough.
    I think they are hoping it’ll all be over before the peak of the cricket season. Oh sorry, you meant the second most important ECB.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Why is the FTSE down more than the Dow, do punters have some intangible faith in the USA ?

    I think its simply that, from America, it all feels further away, and there is still faith in their government's dubious assurances.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2020
    Self isolating as a black man won't get him out of those fancy dress gaffes
  • Varadkar and Trump holding press conference at White House

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,826
    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:

    FTSE getting close to 11% down. Dow 9.5% down.

    FTSE 100 9.7% down.

    Which is bad enough.
    The second S&P limit-down at 13% has never been triggered....
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why is the FTSE down more than the Dow, do punters have some intangible faith in the USA ?

    Or americans don't fully understand the full scale / size of the issue yet
    It's about timing, time differences and "like with like" considerations, e.g. FTSE100 has many heavily USA/ US$ influenced stocks, others less so. Basically, if USA sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,741
    Posted without comment:

    Gordon Jackson says these were things that were “thought of as nothing at the time”, which years later have become a “criminal thing”. Woman G says they were serious enough so staffing arrangements were changed so women were not allowed to work alone with Alex Salmond.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,007

    Disgusting comment.

    I know!

    Trump brings out the worst in everybody - supporters and opponents alike.

    It's a very special talent.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,138

    Varadkar and Trump holding press conference at White House

    Varadkar should self-isolate on his return to Ireland.
  • CatMan said:
    And where will Sturgeon get all the extra finance from to deal with this crisis

    The Westminster government of course
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,809
    alterego said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why is the FTSE down more than the Dow, do punters have some intangible faith in the USA ?

    Or americans don't fully understand the full scale / size of the issue yet
    It's about timing, time differences and "like with like" considerations, e.g. FTSE100 has many heavily USA/ US$ influenced stocks, others less so. Basically, if USA sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold.
    Yes, plus relatively we have far fewer tools to do something about it. Whether you would want those tools in the hands of Donald Trump or Joe Biden or Jerome Powell is another discussion.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,741

    DavidL said:

    Were the ECB not supposed to be acting today? No cut in interest rates. "Stimulus" measures. Not enough.
    I think they are hoping it’ll all be over before the peak of the cricket season. Oh sorry, you meant the second most important ECB.
    Excellent.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,596

    Testing, testing:

    For what it's worth:
    USA Tests: 8,554 Positive cases: 1,374 Ratio: 16.1%
    UK Tests: 29,764 Positive cases: 491 Ratio: 1.6%

    Where do you get the USA Tests number from?
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

    ...although I notice the CDC are reporting a total of 11079 tests now.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,313

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Sturgeon stealing Johnson's thunder. :p

    She's asking to be excluded from COBR frankly. It's unwise.
    Its absolutely shameful. What does she think she achieves, look at me, I take more decisive action than Boris because I do a presser 90mins before him?
    Didn't Arlene do exactly the same after the previous COBR?
    If Boris is truly trying to make sure that this is a team effort rather than just playing lip service to it then making sure he doesn't hog the limelight and allows others to make important announcements seems to me an eminently sensible decision.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,700
    The US stopping flights with Schengen will make it much easier for the Schengen group to reverse the favour if the US situation spirals out of control whilst science led Europe recovers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,426

    Varadkar and Trump holding press conference at White House

    Is Varadkar still a thing?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    The London School of Economics has said it will switch to online-only classes and lectures for all undergraduate and taught postgraduate courses from 23 March, while summer exams will be replaced by online assessments.
  • Varadkar and Trump holding press conference at White House

    Is Varadkar still a thing?
    He thinks he is
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,854
    edited March 2020
    Worst trading day since Oct 1987

    3rd worst fall in history
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,700

    The London School of Economics has said it will switch to online-only classes and lectures for all undergraduate and taught postgraduate courses from 23 March, while summer exams will be replaced by online assessments.

    Students may start to ask why bother with universities when they realise the amount of high quality online courses available for a fraction of the cost. They are paying for status and the experience, rarely the knowledge.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891

    The US stopping flights with Schengen will make it much easier for the Schengen group to reverse the favour if the US situation spirals out of control whilst science led Europe recovers.

    Hasn't the US banned flights in both directions already?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,095
    edited March 2020
    What is Trump going to do.

    The appearance of not being in charge, for him, is worse than anything else remotely possible to imagine.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,054
    edited March 2020
    BBC saying Australian GP called off!
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51849163

    "This weekend's season-opening Australian Grand Prix has been called off over coronavirus concerns, two senior F1 sources have told BBC Sport.

    There has been no official confirmation as yet from F1 or governing body the FIA but the news follows a McLaren team member testing positive for the virus."
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,871
    edited March 2020
    Barnesian said:

    eristdoof said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
    I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
    This shows Italy and UK infections on a log scale up to 10 March.

    It appears to me that the exponential growth is slowing down in both countries.



    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

    The y-axis is on the log scale. That means that a straight line on that graph is exponential growth!!!
    Correct. As you can see, the line is not straight but slowly curving downwards implying the exponential growth rate is declining. (The second differential is negative).
    I think you'll find the lines are NOT curving downwards. They are still going up but with less of a gradient.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Worst trading day since Oct 1987

    3rd worst fall in history

    Buying opportunity
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,700
    RobD said:

    The US stopping flights with Schengen will make it much easier for the Schengen group to reverse the favour if the US situation spirals out of control whilst science led Europe recovers.

    Hasn't the US banned flights in both directions already?
    Im thinking more about in the summer when the threat will imo be travellers from the US heading to the EU.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,168

    isam said:

    isam said:

    .

    The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.

    How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
    How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
    Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
    If those 10 would have died from flu anyway, likely as they were elderly and ill, is that a sign we might all be over worrying, and the media attention on Coronavirus is hiding the possibilty that in terms of deaths, there is no change on a normal year if you combine flu deaths and CV deaths?
    Can you get flu and corona simultaneously or does having one preclude having the other (at any given time)?
    That's a good question - I think I read somewhere that people don't get flu and a cold at the same time, but I can't remember why.

    If the health service is ovewhelmed in winter, then surely it is likely that flu deaths will be higher than otherwise?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Thermometers online are selling like crazy. Just found one for under a tenner incl delivery, not easy mind.

    I have one of those oven ones for telling whether the turkey is done; presumably that would work? I just need to decide where to stick it.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    edited March 2020

    Pulpstar said:

    If your blood pressure is 132/83 would you get classified as "underlying condition" statistic ?

    By the time you get to 65 you are more than likely to have at least two underlying health conditions.
    If your blood pressure is normal, but you are taking 5mg of say amlodopine per day, is that an underlying condition. I guess it is...
    If you have to take medication to reduce your blood pressure you have hypertension. All it means is that it is controlled by drugs. There is something about ACE inhibitors (to treat it) and ACE2 (which is the pathway that the virus uses) but I haven't got my head around what that means yet.

    I take way more than that, with two different medications. Without them it would be running at 160+.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    What is Trump going to do.

    The appearance of not being in charge, for him, is worse than anything else remotely possible to imagine.

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/all-the-covid-monitored-people-who-have-met-trump-in-the-past-week
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,871
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thermometers online are selling like crazy. Just found one for under a tenner incl delivery, not easy mind.

    I have one of those oven ones for telling whether the turkey is done; presumably that would work? I just need to decide where to stick it.
    Very good...:)

    Another medical use for a turkey baster?.....
  • IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thermometers online are selling like crazy. Just found one for under a tenner incl delivery, not easy mind.

    I have one of those oven ones for telling whether the turkey is done; presumably that would work? I just need to decide where to stick it.
    I have a relative who is undergoing chemotherapy and who needs to keep close track of her temperature. She thought she'd lost her thermometer, and I was trying to buy a new one this afternoon. They can't be had for love nor money! Luckily, though, she found hers again.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
    I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
    Indeed. We're not "14 days behind Italy" because we're not growing now at the same rate Italy grew 14 days ago.

    You can't just track numbers you need to track velocity too. If velocity is not the same then you are not going to go to the same place.

    Its like there is a roundabout for getting on/off a motorway. One car uses the roundabout gets on a clear motorway and drives at 90mph [Italy]. After an hour car A has travelled 90 miles.

    An hour later car B uses the roundabout, enters a city with a 30mph speed limit and repeated traffic lights. In an hour's time will the second vehicle have travelled 90 miles just because car A did from the same point an hour before?
    You surely need to take a rolling average of a few days' figures rather than take one day in isolation?
    Its the same however many days you look at. From when the UK and Italy both had their first case (on the same day coincidentally) until today the path, change and quantity has never been the same.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    The bizarre thing about all events being called off is it seems to be based off of 1 or more of the players/participants being tested positive whilst the far greater chance of someone in a crowd being +ve and then spreading the virus is ignored ?

    I'm thinking of Oz GP/Cheltenham here.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,741

    DavidL said:

    Were the ECB not supposed to be acting today? No cut in interest rates. "Stimulus" measures. Not enough.
    Markets unhappy with ECB response.

    Not a surprise with Christine Lagarde in charge
    Madrid down 13.7%. I mean, cataclysmic.
  • Barnesian said:

    eristdoof said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
    I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
    This shows Italy and UK infections on a log scale up to 10 March.

    It appears to me that the exponential growth is slowing down in both countries.



    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

    The y-axis is on the log scale. That means that a straight line on that graph is exponential growth!!!
    Correct. As you can see, the line is not straight but slowly curving downwards implying the exponential growth rate is declining. (The second differential is negative).
    I think you'll find the lines are NOT curving downwards. They are still going up but with less of a gradient.
    They have a positive first derivative but a negative second derivative.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,809

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thermometers online are selling like crazy. Just found one for under a tenner incl delivery, not easy mind.

    I have one of those oven ones for telling whether the turkey is done; presumably that would work? I just need to decide where to stick it.
    I have a relative who is undergoing chemotherapy and who needs to keep close track of her temperature. She thought she'd lost her thermometer, and I was trying to buy a new one this afternoon. They can't be had for love nor money! Luckily, though, she found hers again.
    Yes this is sadly a consequence of panicking. Now, with the US shutting down EU flights, the UK about to move to the "delay" phase, and the markets limit down you might ask whether this is ample reason to panic.

    But nevertheless, on a day to day basis and, importantly, as the DCMO has said, on an individual basis the risks are still very small.
  • Turkish schools and universities to close.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,871

    Barnesian said:

    eristdoof said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
    I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
    This shows Italy and UK infections on a log scale up to 10 March.

    It appears to me that the exponential growth is slowing down in both countries.



    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

    The y-axis is on the log scale. That means that a straight line on that graph is exponential growth!!!
    Correct. As you can see, the line is not straight but slowly curving downwards implying the exponential growth rate is declining. (The second differential is negative).
    I think you'll find the lines are NOT curving downwards. They are still going up but with less of a gradient.
    They have a positive first derivative but a negative second derivative.
    Yes
  • Also no trains on the Birmingham cross city line today. It's all going to pieces!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    edited March 2020
    CatMan said:

    Jesus christ...
    twitter.com/aravosis/status/1238132638650695681?s=20

    I don't think he has a clue what is going on, other than it is very very bad.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,518
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1238130027272851457

    By my v rough calculation we could be looking at 3m cases by early May (2x every 4 days)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Varadkar and Trump holding press conference at White House

    Is Varadkar still a thing?
    Not for long...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,851
    CatMan said:
    Perhaps he's been listening to to those Brexiteer freaks endlessly predicting ROI would be begging to rejoin the UK, and thinks it's already happened.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    edited March 2020

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1238130027272851457

    By my v rough calculation we could be looking at 3m cases by early May (2x every 4 days)

    I don't think this is new news, from the outset they talked about month for community spread, 9 weeks of which 3 in the middle will be 50% of the cases and then cool down of a month.

    So there are hoping make it through another week or so, then April / May / June is when the bombs are going off.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    Barnesian said:

    eristdoof said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
    I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
    This shows Italy and UK infections on a log scale up to 10 March.

    It appears to me that the exponential growth is slowing down in both countries.



    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

    The y-axis is on the log scale. That means that a straight line on that graph is exponential growth!!!
    Correct. As you can see, the line is not straight but slowly curving downwards implying the exponential growth rate is declining. (The second differential is negative).
    I think you'll find the lines are NOT curving downwards. They are still going up but with less of a gradient.
    They have a positive first derivative but a negative second derivative.
    A negative second derivative on a log graph is well, it's good news eventually :p
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,007
    Just back from Waitrose. People wandering around there in a kind of daze. Normal for me, but odd to see so many in that state. Only loo roll left was a VERY high end camomile scented offering (with pictures on it) in packs of 4. Grabbed a couple, so my arse will be smelling extra sweet for the foreseeable. Every cloud.
  • https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1238130027272851457

    By my v rough calculation we could be looking at 3m cases by early May (2x every 4 days)

    A very rough calculation! Exponential rises never go on forever. At some point some other effect starts to limit the increase.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    DavidL said:

    Were the ECB not supposed to be acting today? No cut in interest rates. "Stimulus" measures. Not enough.
    Every assistance short of actual help.....

    The Italians asked for medical supplies. No one in the EU offered.....then China did.....
  • glwglw Posts: 9,887

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1238130027272851457

    By my v rough calculation we could be looking at 3m cases by early May (2x every 4 days)

    I don't think this is new news, from the outset they talked about month for community spread, 9 weeks of which 3 in the middle will be 50% of the cases and then cool down of a month.

    So there are hoping make it through another week or so, then April / May / June is when the bombs are going off.
    How the hell is the government going to explain that if China is on roughly 100,000 cases?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    kinabalu said:

    Just back from Waitrose. People wandering around there in a kind of daze. Normal for me, but odd to see so many in that state. Only loo roll left was a VERY high end camomile scented offering (with pictures on it) in packs of 4. Grabbed a couple, so my arse will be smelling extra sweet for the foreseeable. Every cloud.

    Wait until they find out they won't be getting any artisan sun dried tomatoes or hand crafted pasta for the next 6 months....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,741
    CatMan said:
    You being to wonder which will be the more senile candidate.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    glw said:


    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1238130027272851457

    By my v rough calculation we could be looking at 3m cases by early May (2x every 4 days)

    I don't think this is new news, from the outset they talked about month for community spread, 9 weeks of which 3 in the middle will be 50% of the cases and then cool down of a month.

    So there are hoping make it through another week or so, then April / May / June is when the bombs are going off.
    How the hell is the government going to explain that if China is on roughly 100,000 cases?
    Perhaps that we don't believe it was only 100k cases.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RobD said:

    The US stopping flights with Schengen will make it much easier for the Schengen group to reverse the favour if the US situation spirals out of control whilst science led Europe recovers.

    Hasn't the US banned flights in both directions already?

    No - not flights - non-US passport holders on flights. Though how many flights remain is to be established...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,424

    I suspect the private education sector would struggle to survive a prolonged closure period; plenty of savvy parents will be wanting fee refunds.

    In the sandpit, the (mostly private) schools have been ordered closed for a month. They're all deploying technology for virtual classes and indent to keep learning going. No fee refunds, the teachers still need to be paid and the costs of running the building don't change much whether it's occupied or not.
  • CatMan said:
    Of course. And the special conference is cancelled says McDonnell. And RLB has already pre-recorded her victory speech...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    DavidL said:

    CatMan said:
    You being to wonder which will be the more senile candidate.
    Biden vs Pence incoming lol
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Also no trains on the Birmingham cross city line today. It's all going to pieces!

    BREXIT!!!!.....COVID!!!!! fallen tree.....

    https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/live-updates-cross-city-rail-17909749
  • glwglw Posts: 9,887

    glw said:


    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1238130027272851457

    By my v rough calculation we could be looking at 3m cases by early May (2x every 4 days)

    I don't think this is new news, from the outset they talked about month for community spread, 9 weeks of which 3 in the middle will be 50% of the cases and then cool down of a month.

    So there are hoping make it through another week or so, then April / May / June is when the bombs are going off.
    How the hell is the government going to explain that if China is on roughly 100,000 cases?
    Perhaps that we don't believe it was only 100k cases.
    If we have appear to have 30 times as many cases as China I don't give the government much chance of persuading the public that China's numbers are wrong.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,741
    The world economy has just had a serious myocardial infarction. It is not immediately obvious where the CPR is going to come from. Normally we would look to the Fed but with a delusional imbecile in the White House there is no one to do the compressions.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Final quote for the day from the Salmond trial:

    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1238137240783642625?s=20
This discussion has been closed.