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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Send for the adults.


    Biden, Seeking Contrast With Trump, Will Speak Today on Coronavirus
    The former vice president’s allies believe his remarks will project an image of steady leadership in a crisis.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/us/politics/joe-biden-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    Surely if we are on different exponential paths the absolute difference is likely to increase every day?
    It's never going to be a smooth curve is it? It (the rate of increase) is bound to fluctuate.
    There will certainly be noise but the point of exponential growth is that the differences multiply much faster than linear growth. There have been some suggestions, from @AndreaParma_82 I think, that Italy's growth is now linear rather than exponential which would be a start.
    Something like a Gaussian Process is what is required here, as it will provide a fit to the data including the levels of uncertainty.
    The total number of counts for epidemics will usually follow a cumulative Gaussian curve or a logistic/sigmoid curve. The difference between the two is not worth discussing here.

    This means that the number of new cases will be like a Gaussian bell curve. The new cases (counts) will be much more variable around the idealised curve than for the cumulative counts.

    The problem is we are at the start of the curve and so fitting a Gaussian curve to the new cases or a logistic curve to the total cases and extrapolating into the future has exactly the same problems as Henrietta's models from last week.
    A Gaussian Process doesn't (have to) fit a gaussian curve to the data...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited March 2020

    From Guardian...

    The majority of coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to show symptoms, scientists have found.

    An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.

    The finding has dismayed infectious disease researchers as it means that isolating people once they start to feel ill will be far less effective at slowing the pandemic than had been hoped.

    According to the Times before even a cough or high temperature the very first symptom is fatigue, so self isolating people who just feel tired may become necessary
  • kinabalu said:
    He's in dreadful health, by the look of him, chances are very high.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    OllyT said:

    DavidL said:

    Is this season coming to an end? https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51856906

    3 Leicester players join Van Dijk in self imposed isolation.

    What a shame if Liverpool don't win the league ;-)
    If the season ends surely Liverpool have won it. Be farcical not to recognise that.

    The PL is won by the team that has most points after playing the other 19 teams home and away. Those are the rules. They can't be bent for Liverpool's convenience. Let the candlelit vigil begin.
    At least TSE will be rightly able to claim he called first it as a possibility.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    alex_ said:

    TimT said:


    South Korea and the UK are being held up by medical critics of the Trump Administration as the way it should have been done here.

    The first of those two is correct.
    Do you apply the same level of contempt to other Govt responses in Europe as you do to the UK?
    Yes.

    I'm just finding it hard to believe that eastern Asian countries seem have worked out how to keep the spread of this thing under control and their economies working at the same time, without coercion, much of it with simple, common-sense leadership, and the US and Europe have completed ignored what they've been doing for weeks, followed inevitably by huge, disruptive lock-downs when the numbers get to where the numbers were always projected to get to.

    "Please consider cancelling events and large gatherings unless they are essential. Please work from home if practical". Why is this hard?

    So dumb. So, so dumb.
    Something that puzzles me about the UK response is that it's pretty obvious (and there's modelling studies to back this up) that contact tracing is a more effective way to control an outbreak if the number of transmissions caused by each case is nice and low. Contact tracing is quite resource-intensive and can be overwhelmed if community transmission is high. To give it the best chance of working, you want to reduce transmission. And we have ways of doing that. So why was no package of transmission-reduction measures (e.g. at least some of the low-cost forms of social distancing) incorporated into the Contain stage of the response, to give it the best chance of working? Only introducing them at the point where you've de-emphasised contact-tracing as part of your response seems to miss out on the potential synergy of the two approaches.

    There must be reasons behind this decision - it wasn't a call made by idiots - and I'm genuinely curious what it was.
    Comment of the night above, cruelly cut off at the end of thread.

    Even as I try to get across that what we already know gives an upper bound well below much of the catastrophising, the holding off on ready options to make the Contain phase easier confuses me and I wish they were implementing social distancing measures faster.
    I expect the answer to MBE's question is that the social distancing and the rest is seen as a strategy with a time-limited utility - i.e. after a while people will get fed up with it - and they didn't want to "waste" it during the contain phase when it will be critical during the "delay" phase to avoid the NHS becoming overwhelmed.
    If I was to put money on it, I'd rate that as most likely. Having said that, is there really not a single transmission reduction measure, however mildly beneficial its effects might have been, that's relatively low-cost and is not time-limited? I understand that people's willingness to comply with things may degrade over time and isn't likely to be as strong here as in certain Asian countries, but HMG does have some key advantages: it can ban stuff and it can render stuff uninsurable. It seems they concluded there were no worthwhile options. Not saying they were wrong - I'm in no position to know - but I still find it odd, bearing in mind it's well-established that contact-tracing is more effective for containment if you can reduce transmission and you'd want to give that a decent shot.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited March 2020
    All this argument of on the curve not on the curve is meaningless for pan national figures because looking at Italy and Spain it was only when a hot spot developed did it start to take off. Watch London and other possible hotspots to see how things are progressing. Yes Madrid is dire with mass closures but as yet we on the coast are seeing sensible actions closing large scale events, schools remain open but universities are quick to shut down when a number of cases appear. Just looking for a sensible approach to Easter parades and travel restrictions out of Madrid to the costas .and continued good weather.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Donald Trump has said he could not consult with European officials before implementing his travel ban because he had to act quickly.
    He added that the UK was excluded from the ban because they were doing a god job on managing the coronavirus.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/uk-coronavirus-updates-live-delay-phase-a4385196.html
  • kinabalu said:
    Disgusting comment.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited March 2020

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    alex_ said:

    TimT said:


    South Korea and the UK are being held up by medical critics of the Trump Administration as the way it should have been done here.

    The first of those two is correct.
    Do you apply the same level of contempt to other Govt responses in Europe as you do to the UK?
    Yes.

    I'm just finding it hard to believe that eastern Asian countries seem have worked out how to keep the spread of this thing under control and their economies working at the same time, without coercion, much of it with simple, common-sense leadership, and the US and Europe have completed ignored what they've been doing for weeks, followed inevitably by huge, disruptive lock-downs when the numbers get to where the numbers were always projected to get to.

    "Please consider cancelling events and large gatherings unless they are essential. Please work from home if practical". Why is this hard?

    So dumb. So, so dumb.
    Something that puzzles me about the UK response is that it's pretty obvious (and there's modelling studies to back this up) that contact tracing is a more effective way to control an outbreak if the number of transmissions caused by each case is nice and low. Contact tracing is quite resource-intensive and can be overwhelmed if community transmission is high. To give it the best chance of working, you want to reduce transmission. And we have ways of doing that. So why was no package of transmission-reduction measures (e.g. at least some of the low-cost forms of social distancing) incorporated into the Contain stage of the response, to give it the best chance of working? Only introducing them at the point where you've de-emphasised contact-tracing as part of your response seems to miss out on the potential synergy of the two approaches.

    There must be reasons behind this decision - it wasn't a call made by idiots - and I'm genuinely curious what it was.
    Comment of the night above, cruelly cut off at the end of thread.

    Even as I try to get across that what we already know gives an upper bound well below much of the catastrophising, the holding off on ready options to make the Contain phase easier confuses me and I wish they were implementing social distancing measures faster.
    I expect the answer to MBE's question is that the social distancing and the rest is seen as a strategy with a time-limited utility - i.e. after a while people will get fed up with it - and they didn't want to "waste" it during the contain phase when it will be critical during the "delay" phase to avoid the NHS becoming overwhelmed.
    If I was to put money on it, I'd rate that as most likely. Having said that, is there really not a single transmission reduction measure, however mildly beneficial its effects might have been, that's relatively low-cost and is not time-limited? I understand that people's willingness to comply with things may degrade over time and isn't likely to be as strong here as in certain Asian countries, but HMG does have some key advantages: it can ban stuff and it can render stuff uninsurable. It seems they concluded there were no worthwhile options. Not saying they were wrong - I'm in no position to know - but I still find it odd, bearing in mind it's well-established that contact-tracing is more effective for containment if you can reduce transmission and you'd want to give that a decent shot.
    This is the playbook the Government is working from https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu

    And annex c of https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/225869/Pandemic_Influenza_LRF_Guidance.pdf covers school closures and why you can't rush them
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    HYUFD said:

    From Guardian...

    The majority of coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to show symptoms, scientists have found.

    An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.

    The finding has dismayed infectious disease researchers as it means that isolating people once they start to feel ill will be far less effective at slowing the pandemic than had been hoped.

    According to the Times before even a gough or high temperature the very first symptom is fatigue, so self isolating people who just feel tired may become necessary
    I'd be self-isolating every evening.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    kinabalu said:
    He can't it's Democrat hoax, spread by the MSM.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    kinabalu said:
    Disgusting comment.
    Yes, but only saying what a lot of people (not me) were thinking
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    isam said:

    eristdoof said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    .

    The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.

    How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
    How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
    Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
    If those 10 would have died from flu anyway, likely as they were elderly and ill, is that a sign we might all be over worrying, and the media attention on Coronavirus is hiding the possibilty that in terms of deaths, there is no change on a normal year if you combine flu deaths and CV deaths?
    The problem that Italy are seeing at the moment is that people are not getting operations and other treatment because there are so many Covid-19 cases. These are people who need to be in hospital, a large proportion of whom will survive, rather than people who can be left to "die peacefully in their sleep".

    I think that is is not "overworrying"
    "die peacefully in their sleep"

    Who are you quoting there?
    That is the epithet you often hear for elderly people when they sleep. The implication from the previous post was that we should not worry about people who die from Covid-19, because the numbers are so small. But that is not the problem. The problem is the hospitalisation of too many people. People who will survive if they are treated in hospital and die an unpleasant death if not.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,557

    FTSE below 1998 levels

    And FTSE high for 1999 was 6958
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757

    Donald Trump has said he could not consult with European officials before implementing his travel ban because he had to act quickly.
    He added that the UK was excluded from the ban because they were doing a god job on managing the coronavirus.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/uk-coronavirus-updates-live-delay-phase-a4385196.html

    He'll have to rethink that given the plan going forward. Although, I don't think managed exposure is too bad an idea, given a vaccine is coming....when? I'll get my coat.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Send for the adults.


    Biden, Seeking Contrast With Trump, Will Speak Today on Coronavirus
    The former vice president’s allies believe his remarks will project an image of steady leadership in a crisis.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/us/politics/joe-biden-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    The 22nd Amendment has a lot to answer for - without it, Obama could have been sorting this out for the US.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    kinabalu said:
    Disgusting comment.
    Yup, totally out of order. I have a bit-coin on him making it to the end of his term. (Not sure if it'll be worth anything by then though.)

    Just another 10 months, *then* he can get it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    edited March 2020
    From Guido, but mildly joyous.

    I wonder if it is electric.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26-Ko0y3V48
  • US suspends Major League Soccer. Not to be reinstated until they learn to call it football, like every other country in the world, I hope.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited March 2020

    kinabalu said:
    Disgusting comment.
    I'm totally in agreement. Has the coronavirus really done enough evil yet to deserve that?

    It's worth noting that Trump last night was wheezing quite a lot.
  • kinabalu said:
    Disgusting comment.
    How so? If Trump got it, thousands of lives might then be saved by the consequent serious effort to mitigate contagion.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    kinabalu said:
    Disgusting comment.
    Yup, totally out of order. I have a bit-coin on him making it to the end of his term. (Not sure if it'll be worth anything by then though.)

    Just another 10 months, *then* he can get it.
    Don't worry that bet is worth a 1/3 less than it was yesterday..
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2020
    eristdoof said:

    isam said:

    eristdoof said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    .

    The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.

    How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
    How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
    Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
    If those 10 would have died from flu anyway, likely as they were elderly and ill, is that a sign we might all be over worrying, and the media attention on Coronavirus is hiding the possibilty that in terms of deaths, there is no change on a normal year if you combine flu deaths and CV deaths?
    The problem that Italy are seeing at the moment is that people are not getting operations and other treatment because there are so many Covid-19 cases. These are people who need to be in hospital, a large proportion of whom will survive, rather than people who can be left to "die peacefully in their sleep".

    I think that is is not "overworrying"
    "die peacefully in their sleep"

    Who are you quoting there?
    That is the epithet you often hear for elderly people when they sleep. The implication from the previous post was that we should not worry about people who die from Covid-19, because the numbers are so small. But that is not the problem. The problem is the hospitalisation of too many people. People who will survive if they are treated in hospital and die an unpleasant death if not.
    You shouldn't really use quotation marks like that, as it gives the impression the person you are replying to said it, especially when you have quoted them elsewhere

    Back to the debate, is influenza a pleasant way to die then?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Posted without comment:

    Cross examining for the defence, Gordon Jackson asks if Alex Salmond was being “playful” when he was alleged to have smacked Woman G’s bottom. She replies “I think it was extremely inappropriate”
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
    I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
    This shows Italy and UK infections on a log scale up to 10 March.

    It appears to me that the exponential growth is slowing down in both countries.



    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1238122280863043586

    He's right, but the problem for the Government is that BoZo is not a credible spokesman.

    He is a habitual liar who has consistently contradicted experts to advance his career.

    When he stand at the despatch box and says "we are following the experts" it's not credible.
  • Let's see what happens later today from Cobra
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    edited March 2020

    Pulpstar said:

    If your blood pressure is 132/83 would you get classified as "underlying condition" statistic ?

    By the time you get to 65 you are more than likely to have at least two underlying health conditions.
    If your blood pressure is normal, but you are taking 5mg of say amlodopine per day, is that an underlying condition. I guess it is...
  • Boris will speak unto the nation at 5pm.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    FTSE below 1998 levels

    This is getting unbelievable. The markets now are assuming a crash in international trade and business like nothing seen since the early 1930s. They may be right but jeez, that's at the deep end.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2020
    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
    I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
    This shows Italy and UK infections on a log scale up to 10 March.

    It appears to me that the exponential growth is slowing down in both countries.



    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

    Very interesting, I had some sort of 'hunch' of the disease slowing in both countries a couple of days ago, when the weather was abruptly warmer and balmier in the UK.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    Boris will speak unto the nation at 5pm.

    Hopefully in a lot more coherent fashion than the Donald.
  • Trump couldn't be handling this pandemic any worse. Politically the GOP have long decided to give him a very long leash. However, COVID-19 threatens to kill large numbers of GOP voters...

    Would take balls for Pence to pull the 25th Amendment. But if he fancies a crack at being a National Hero now is the time...
  • Sturgeon announces decision has been taken to move to delay stage
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited March 2020
    Even now it is difficult to overstate just how much trouble we are in
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Sturgeon stealing Johnson's thunder. :p
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    On Wednesday 11th March the US announced a 30-day ban on travellers arriving from the Schengen countries which would take effect tomorrow, Friday 13th March.

    According to OAG flight schedules, the ban will passengers arriving on nearly 7,000 flights over the next 4 weeks. If those flights were cancelled due to lack of demand that would remove close to 2 million seats each way from the market.

    Of the 26 Schengen countries in Europe, Germany, France and the Netherlands will be most affected as they make up 57% of all flights between the Schengen Area and the United States.

    The most affected airlines will be Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, which, together are scheduled to fly 31% of all flights between the United States and the Schengen Area in this period. Lufthansa is the most affected European airline, flying 13% of flights between the two areas.


    https://www.oag.com/blog/the-scale-of-the-schengen-us-travel-ban
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    kinabalu said:
    Trump to leave before end of first term is 1.1 on Betfair i.e. 10% chance.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
    I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
    This shows Italy and UK infections on a log scale up to 10 March.

    It appears to me that the exponential growth is slowing down in both countries.



    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

    Very interesting, I had some sort of 'hunch' of the disease slowing in both countries a couple of days ago, when the weather was abruptly warmer and balmier in the UK.
    Are you even paying attention to the latest figures?!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2020

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
    I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
    This shows Italy and UK infections on a log scale up to 10 March.

    It appears to me that the exponential growth is slowing down in both countries.



    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

    Very interesting, I had some sort of 'hunch' of the disease slowing in both countries a couple of days ago, when the weather was abruptly warmer and balmier in the UK.
    Are you even paying attention to the latest figures?!
    Yup - see the discussion below.

    I've no idea if the current apparent slowdown will continue, though.

    Let's hope tonight's figures from Italy aren't too much at the grim end of expectations.
  • isam said:

    kinabalu said:
    Disgusting comment.
    Yes, but only saying what a lot of people (not me) were thinking
    At least they are identifying themselves in this thread. Now i know which houses will be easy targets for supplies in the apocalypse.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Thermometers online are selling like crazy. Just found one for under a tenner incl delivery, not easy mind.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1238122280863043586

    He's right, but the problem for the Government is that BoZo is not a credible spokesman.

    He is a habitual liar who has consistently contradicted experts to advance his career.

    When he stand at the despatch box and says "we are following the experts" it's not credible.

    He tends to be standing next to said expert at the time. This helps, a bit.

    Unless you think our experts are all cowards, or have been bought off somehow?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    kinabalu said:
    Disgusting comment.
    Surely as it's just a hoax by the Democrats he has nothing to worry about.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    Surely if we are on different exponential paths the absolute difference is likely to increase every day?
    It's never going to be a smooth curve is it? It (the rate of increase) is bound to fluctuate.
    There will certainly be noise but the point of exponential growth is that the differences multiply much faster than linear growth. There have been some suggestions, from @AndreaParma_82 I think, that Italy's growth is now linear rather than exponential which would be a start.
    Something like a Gaussian Process is what is required here, as it will provide a fit to the data including the levels of uncertainty.
    The total number of counts for epidemics will usually follow a cumulative Gaussian curve or a logistic/sigmoid curve. The difference between the two is not worth discussing here.

    This means that the number of new cases will be like a Gaussian bell curve. The new cases (counts) will be much more variable around the idealised curve than for the cumulative counts.

    The problem is we are at the start of the curve and so fitting a Gaussian curve to the new cases or a logistic curve to the total cases and extrapolating into the future has exactly the same problems as Henrietta's models from last week.
    A Gaussian Process doesn't (have to) fit a gaussian curve to the data...
    OK Mea Culpa in the sense that I saw you used the word Gaussian 'process' but I had not expected you to be using the word in the probabilistic sense of a "Random Process". Sorry.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1238125341912203266

    This isn't the time for petty partisan politics. Some people clearly haven't got the memo.
  • Overseas school trips to stop, no school closures but under review
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    Surely if we are on different exponential paths the absolute difference is likely to increase every day?
    It's never going to be a smooth curve is it? It (the rate of increase) is bound to fluctuate.
    There will certainly be noise but the point of exponential growth is that the differences multiply much faster than linear growth. There have been some suggestions, from @AndreaParma_82 I think, that Italy's growth is now linear rather than exponential which would be a start.
    Something like a Gaussian Process is what is required here, as it will provide a fit to the data including the levels of uncertainty.
    The total number of counts for epidemics will usually follow a cumulative Gaussian curve or a logistic/sigmoid curve. The difference between the two is not worth discussing here.

    This means that the number of new cases will be like a Gaussian bell curve. The new cases (counts) will be much more variable around the idealised curve than for the cumulative counts.

    The problem is we are at the start of the curve and so fitting a Gaussian curve to the new cases or a logistic curve to the total cases and extrapolating into the future has exactly the same problems as Henrietta's models from last week.
    A Gaussian Process doesn't (have to) fit a gaussian curve to the data...
    OK Mea Culpa in the sense that I saw you used the word Gaussian 'process' but I had not expected you to be using the word in the probabilistic sense of a "Random Process". Sorry.

    No problem, its a bit of a niche field :-) But it would be the approach I would be using to model the public data, as would give a fit with co-variance and you can built it such that you take in the different countries data with the differing sample rates etc.

    Just fitting exponential or sigmoid curves through stuff isn't the way to do it.

    However, the egg-heads have a load of private data about location, the network effect being presented between cases etc.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1238125341912203266

    This isn't the time for petty partisan politics. Some people clearly haven't got the memo.
    It's the SNP. What do you expect? :D
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited March 2020
    DavidL said:

    FTSE below 1998 levels

    This is getting unbelievable. The markets now are assuming a crash in international trade and business like nothing seen since the early 1930s. They may be right but jeez, that's at the deep end.
    As I posted this morning, I estimate we will see between 25% and 75% off last night's levels. That 25% figure is looking fanciful.

    When you consider that, ultimately, the stock markets reflect the global economy you can see why we're in such trouble. The world is hitting the buffers from 500mph and there isn't any further track in sight right now.

    Businesses all over the globe will be going bust. A very very few will profit and a mid-section of sufficiently large companies won't be recovering to last year's profitability for years to come.

    It's an absolute disaster.
  • Scottish government position will advise against mass gatherings of over 500 people
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Scott_xP said:

    twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1238125341912203266

    This isn't the time for petty partisan politics. Some people clearly haven't got the memo.
    Rory Stewart seems to be the main offender, somewhat to my disappointment.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    Pulpstar said:

    Thermometers online are selling like crazy. Just found one for under a tenner incl delivery, not easy mind.

    I just picked the last standard one up out of my local pharmacy. Boots had one left too, but for fifty pounds or something. I might just need my temperature taken, I won't need it uploaded to Alexa and a running average given alongside the local news and the weather report.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    alex_ said:

    TimT said:


    South Korea and the UK are being held up by medical critics of the Trump Administration as the way it should have been done here.

    The first of those two is correct.
    Do you apply the same level of contempt to other Govt responses in Europe as you do to the UK?
    Yes.

    I'm just finding it hard to believe that eastern Asian countries seem have worked out how to keep the spread of this thing under control and their economies working at the same time, without coercion, much of it with simple, common-sense leadership, and the US and Europe have completed ignored what they've been doing for weeks, followed inevitably by huge, disruptive lock-downs when the numbers get to where the numbers were always projected to get to.

    "Please consider cancelling events and large gatherings unless they are essential. Please work from home if practical". Why is this hard?

    So dumb. So, so dumb.
    Something that puzzles me about the UK response is that it's pretty obvious (and there's modelling studies to back this up) that contact tracing is a more effective way to control an outbreak if the number of transmissions caused by each case is nice and low. Contact tracing is quite resource-intensive and can be overwhelmed if community transmission is high. To give it the best chance of working, you want to reduce transmission. And we have ways of doing that. So why was no package of transmission-reduction measures (e.g. at least some of the low-cost forms of social distancing) incorporated into the Contain stage of the response, to give it the best chance of working? Only introducing them at the point where you've de-emphasised contact-tracing as part of your response seems to miss out on the potential synergy of the two approaches.

    There must be reasons behind this decision - it wasn't a call made by idiots - and I'm genuinely curious what it was.
    Comment of the night above, cruelly cut off at the end of thread.

    Even as I try to get across that what we already know gives an upper bound well below much of the catastrophising, the holding off on ready options to make the Contain phase easier confuses me and I wish they were implementing social distancing measures faster.
    I expect the answer to MBE's question is that the social distancing and the rest is seen as a strategy with a time-limited utility - i.e. after a while people will get fed up with it - and they didn't want to "waste" it during the contain phase when it will be critical during the "delay" phase to avoid the NHS becoming overwhelmed.
    If I was to put money on it, I'd rate that as most likely. Having said that, is there really not a single transmission reduction measure, however mildly beneficial its effects might have been, that's relatively low-cost and is not time-limited? I understand that people's willingness to comply with things may degrade over time and isn't likely to be as strong here as in certain Asian countries, but HMG does have some key advantages: it can ban stuff and it can render stuff uninsurable. It seems they concluded there were no worthwhile options. Not saying they were wrong - I'm in no position to know - but I still find it odd, bearing in mind it's well-established that contact-tracing is more effective for containment if you can reduce transmission and you'd want to give that a decent shot.
    This is the playbook the Government is working from https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu

    And annex c of https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/225869/Pandemic_Influenza_LRF_Guidance.pdf covers school closures and why you can't rush them
    It's not exactly their playbook because this isn't pandemic flu, but a lot of the preparedness across government will be based on that document. Children seem to be affected by COVID-19 very differently to flu, so no doubt this will be something they'll be modelling very carefully. (In fact they'd be modelling it carefully even with flu! But a trickier task this time around as children's role in the epidemic remains murky.) I wasn't talking about anything as drastic as school closures, apologies if my post was insufficiently clear. It was the complete absence of even low-impact social-distancing measures during the Contain phase that had caught my curiosity.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    RobD said:

    Sturgeon stealing Johnson's thunder. :p

    She's asking to be excluded from COBR frankly. It's unwise.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898

    Overseas school trips to stop, no school closures but under review

    The argument for closing schools is finely balanced - the infection rates among children seem quite low but among the parents and teachers it's a different story. IF enough teachers are forced to self isolate the school will close whatever.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
    I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
    This shows Italy and UK infections on a log scale up to 10 March.

    It appears to me that the exponential growth is slowing down in both countries.



    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

    The y-axis is on the log scale. That means that a straight line on that graph is exponential growth!!!
  • DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Sturgeon stealing Johnson's thunder. :p

    She's asking to be excluded from COBR frankly. It's unwise.
    I thought that
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Today's increase of confirmed cases by 134 - 29% - is the largest day-on-day increase since the outbreak began in late December in Wuhan, central China.

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-coronavirus-cases-reach-590-an-increase-of-134-in-24-hours-11956223

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    stodge said:

    Overseas school trips to stop, no school closures but under review

    The argument for closing schools is finely balanced - the infection rates among children seem quite low but among the parents and teachers it's a different story. IF enough teachers are forced to self isolate the school will close whatever.
    I would have thought the argument was to be selective. In "hot spot" areas the schools should close now, the SW for example. In other areas the matter can be kept under review at the moment.

    My son's Highers are due to start next month and he is working extremely hard for them. I really feel for him and his cohort.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,755
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In Coronavirus news, at my sister's daughter's school in Croydon, one of the pupils has tested positive.

    They are not closing the school.

    Should be closed for a deep clean then reopened.
    The risk, I think, is that if one student has it, then another might do as well.

    By reopening it, you introduce a highly probable method for community infection.

    On the other hand, closing the school causes terrible problems for the families with two working parents.

    There are no easy answers.
    My sister in law's sister's kid's school was closed a couple of weeks back as a TA tested positive and the child was isolated (in family home) for two weeks (just back at school now, I think).

    Odd that this one would be different - unless the pupil has not been in school since infection? In that case you can see that merely restricting the contacts could make sense.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited March 2020
    Testing, testing:

    For what it's worth:
    USA Tests: 8,554 Positive cases: 1,374 Ratio: 16.1%
    UK Tests: 29,764 Positive cases: 491 Ratio: 1.6%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Sturgeon stealing Johnson's thunder. :p

    She's asking to be excluded from COBR frankly. It's unwise.
    Its absolutely shameful. What does she think she achieves, look at me, I take more decisive action than Boris because I do a presser 90mins before him?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Testing, testing:

    For what it's worth:
    USA Tests: 8,554 Positive cases: 1,374 Ratio: 16.1%
    UK Tests: 29,764 Positive cases: 491 Ratio: 1.6%

    It is clearly rampant in the US, in the way it was in Italy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Sturgeon stealing Johnson's thunder. :p

    She's asking to be excluded from COBR frankly. It's unwise.
    Its absolutely shameful. What does she think she achieves, look at me, I take more decisive action than Boris because I do a presser 90mins before him?
    Didn't Arlene do exactly the same after the previous COBR?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited March 2020

    DavidL said:

    FTSE below 1998 levels

    This is getting unbelievable. The markets now are assuming a crash in international trade and business like nothing seen since the early 1930s. They may be right but jeez, that's at the deep end.
    As I posted this morning, I estimate we will see between 25% and 75% off last night's levels. That 25% figure is looking fanciful.

    When you consider that, ultimately, the stock markets reflect the global economy you can see why we're in such trouble. The world is hitting the buffers from 500mph and there isn't any further track in sight right now.

    Businesses all over the globe will be going bust. A very very few will profit and a mid-section of sufficiently large companies won't be recovering to last year's profitability for years to come.

    It's an absolute disaster.
    What is a share's fair value when there are too many unknowns. At the moment the only thing people have to go on is guess work as the fundamental assumptions that existed last month may no longer be valid.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    FTSE below 1998 levels

    This is getting unbelievable. The markets now are assuming a crash in international trade and business like nothing seen since the early 1930s. They may be right but jeez, that's at the deep end.
    As I posted this morning, I estimate we will see between 25% and 75% off last night's levels. That 25% figure is looking fanciful.

    When you consider that, ultimately, the stock markets reflect the global economy you can see why we're in such trouble. The world is hitting the buffers from 500mph and there isn't any further track in sight right now.

    Businesses all over the globe will be going bust. A very very few will profit and a mid-section of sufficiently large companies won't be recovering to last year's profitability for years to come.

    It's an absolute disaster.
    The view in January was that this was a Q1 thing. Now its looking more like a 2020 thing. And 2021 isn't looking brilliant either.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709

    Testing, testing:

    For what it's worth:
    USA Tests: 8,554 Positive cases: 1,374 Ratio: 16.1%
    UK Tests: 29,764 Positive cases: 491 Ratio: 1.6%

    The US deaths to recoveries ratio is even more shocking.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000
    kinabalu said:
    Trump's burnt so many boats, but don't rule out the awful prospect of a wave of sympathy in that event. Bedside vigil with minute by minute updates, a nation mourns, state funeral with a weeping Melania & Baron, VP inaugurated followed by winning the election on a modest landslide; the septics' appetite for soap opera is bottomless.

    Of course if the the at-least-as-ghastly Pence catches it too, doesn't Nancy get in? Not the worst outcome by a long chalk.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Must be coordinated. Gives Sturgeon some kudos and distances Boris from the nitty gritty. He doesn't need to acquire a perception of gravitas, has not been his style.

    Only (very big) problem is that is the Sturge speaking for the UK or for North Britain? Leaves us punters confused.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    I suspect the private education sector would struggle to survive a prolonged closure period; plenty of savvy parents will be wanting fee refunds.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Trump couldn't be handling this pandemic any worse. Politically the GOP have long decided to give him a very long leash. However, COVID-19 threatens to kill large numbers of GOP voters...

    It is much the same over here given voter demographics. It is like watching turkeys vote for Xmas....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Barnesian said:

    kinabalu said:
    Trump to leave before end of first term is 1.1 on Betfair i.e. 10% chance.
    Trump definitely didn't look that well giving last night's address so I've laid up 30 odd quid of my green on him for GOP nominee. Probably nothing but you can imagine how that market would flip if he had it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    TOPPING said:

    Must be coordinated. Gives Sturgeon some kudos and distances Boris from the nitty gritty. He doesn't need to acquire a perception of gravitas, has not been his style.

    Only (very big) problem is that is the Sturge speaking for the UK or for North Britain? Leaves us punters confused.

    Dribbling news out bit by bit makes sense at the moment -
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Sturgeon stealing Johnson's thunder. :p

    She's asking to be excluded from COBR frankly. It's unwise.
    Its absolutely shameful. What does she think she achieves, look at me, I take more decisive action than Boris because I do a presser 90mins before him?
    Didn't Arlene do exactly the same after the previous COBR?
    I can't remember, but any politician doing this crap is disgraceful. This is a worldwide emergency and some politicians and media are playing at this as if it is game where the worst that happens is somebody gets embarrassed.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I was talked out of selling EasyJet shares at £11 and now they're 806p
  • Great news that the Coro will hold off until a full set of football fixtures has been completed over the weekend.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898

    Scottish government position will advise against mass gatherings of over 500 people

    Good news for all weather race meetings !!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    I suspect the private education sector would struggle to survive a prolonged closure period; plenty of savvy parents will be wanting fee refunds.

    I imagine they will do what Universities are planning.

    Videoconferencing and online content.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    eristdoof said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.

    Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.

    Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
    I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
    Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.

    Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.

    Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
    But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
    I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
    This shows Italy and UK infections on a log scale up to 10 March.

    It appears to me that the exponential growth is slowing down in both countries.



    Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

    The y-axis is on the log scale. That means that a straight line on that graph is exponential growth!!!
    Correct. As you can see, the line is not straight but slowly curving downwards implying the exponential growth rate is declining. (The second differential is negative).
  • DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Sturgeon stealing Johnson's thunder. :p

    She's asking to be excluded from COBR frankly. It's unwise.
    Its absolutely shameful. What does she think she achieves, look at me, I take more decisive action than Boris because I do a presser 90mins before him?
    Didn't Arlene do exactly the same after the previous COBR?
    Sky and BBC both pulled away when questions started

    However, she has made herself look untrustworthy
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    Testing, testing:

    For what it's worth:
    USA Tests: 8,554 Positive cases: 1,374 Ratio: 16.1%
    UK Tests: 29,764 Positive cases: 491 Ratio: 1.6%

    The US deaths to recoveries ratio is even more shocking.
    Both are overwhelming evidence that the US has not found 10% of those infected meaning that there is no control over subsequent transmission.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    I suspect the private education sector would struggle to survive a prolonged closure period; plenty of savvy parents will be wanting fee refunds.

    Doesn't a significant percentage of students at private school come from China?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TOPPING said:

    Must be coordinated. Gives Sturgeon some kudos and distances Boris from the nitty gritty. He doesn't need to acquire a perception of gravitas, has not been his style.

    My thoughts too - nice example of the United Kingdom working together - Arlene next week? May be a canny move by Number 10.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    SECOND worker at Liverpool hospital has coronavirus at unit where infected cancer surgeon returned to work from Italian skiing break

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8105047/Now-SECOND-worker-Liverpool-hospital-coronavirus.html
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    I just built a model by holding a ruler up to my computer screen against some graphs, and now I am panicking. Please send help.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Sturgeon stealing Johnson's thunder. :p

    She's asking to be excluded from COBR frankly. It's unwise.
    Its absolutely shameful. What does she think she achieves, look at me, I take more decisive action than Boris because I do a presser 90mins before him?
    Didn't Arlene do exactly the same after the previous COBR?
    Sky and BBC both pulled away when questions started

    However, she has made herself look untrustworthy
    Aye, a shocking contrast to irreproachable BJ.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Sturgeon’s mask slipping. Nationalism before health.

    The Eck trial is exploding today - bombshells ahoy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Testing, testing:

    For what it's worth:
    USA Tests: 8,554 Positive cases: 1,374 Ratio: 16.1%
    UK Tests: 29,764 Positive cases: 491 Ratio: 1.6%

    The US deaths to recoveries ratio is even more shocking.
    Not as grim as France's (USA 38 dead - 15 recovered; France 48d. - 12r.) But I suggest it's a meaningless figure at the moment due to variable definitions of 'recovered'.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Endillion said:

    I just built a model by holding a ruler up to my computer screen against some graphs, and now I am panicking. Please send help.

    First thing to do is disinfect the ruler.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited March 2020
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Must be coordinated. Gives Sturgeon some kudos and distances Boris from the nitty gritty. He doesn't need to acquire a perception of gravitas, has not been his style.

    Only (very big) problem is that is the Sturge speaking for the UK or for North Britain? Leaves us punters confused.

    Dribbling news out bit by bit makes sense at the moment -
    I think we need one single voice. We need an Ian McDonald.

    I think the DCMO was pretty impressive (as indeed I have to say was the Q&A itself) with BoJo.
This discussion has been closed.