At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.
There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.
Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.
But they are definitely, brave Minister.
That's not necessarily accurate.
Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.
Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
No I don't think so.
I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
Round and round we go.
Because we aren't going insane.
We are telling people who come home from Italy to self-isolate for 14 days.
Someone was on twitter saying they had been to Alicante should they self isolate and people came back saying yes! There are 22 cases in Alicante province there are more in London, should you self isolate if you have been to London?
If the football season is brought to an early close, how will that work for promotion and relegation?
Asking as a Norwich City fan.
Two options in my opinion:
1) Complete this season whenever is possible - perhaps shortening next season. 2) Cancel it now and decide based on first 19 games (doubt they'd do this).
WHO says risk of infection appears to be high at small gatherings in indoor venues https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/cinemas-and-pubs-in-uk-remain-open-amid-coronavirus-concerns ...“We are operating on the basic assumption that the home is a primary place where transmission has been occurring, but something else we are also really picking up on is that in places where ventilation is poor, or if there is ventilation but a lack of proper filtration, then that can also be seriously bad,” Nabarro told the Guardian on Thursday.
He was speaking before a meeting of the government’s Cobra emergency committee, where ministers are expected to agree to move into the “delay” stage of its coronavirus strategy. This involves social distancing measures, such as restricting public gatherings and issuing more widespread advice to stay at home.
Nabarro stressed that information on how the virus was spreading was more circumstantial, and data was based on the still-evolving situations in countries such as China, South Korea and Iran, but he said that, after the home, transmission appeared to often be taking place indoors where people were gathered around tables.
“We are coming across stories where people, for example, have been sitting around a table in a restaurant or bar, where they are closer than 2 metres, spend quite a bit of time in each other’s company and the amount of time that passes is not clear. That appears to be the next commonest place where infections are taking place.
“That is why restaurants, pubs and churches – churches in particular because of physical closeness – are of interest.”...
(Quite a few schools would meet this description, too.)
And suggests behind doors sporting events would be terrible.
Trump needs to do something to reverse that - and fast.
His resignation would probably add 3000 Pts instantly
This is where we get to see who's really in charge, the president or the lizard people. Now that he's costing rich people real money, do they have the power to get rid of him?
Is he, or is he creating shorting opportunities for them, while the ordinary people with their 401(K)s get clobbered?
Later on, they can buy back in at reduced prices, and stuff the little guy both ways.
At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.
There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.
Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.
But they are definitely, brave Minister.
That's not necessarily accurate.
Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.
Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
No I don't think so.
I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
Round and round we go.
Because we aren't going insane.
We are telling people who come home from Italy to self-isolate for 14 days.
Stopping flights from Italy when they have a massive outbreak of Covid19 is insane? So why did Hancock move to stop them, as he said last night in the Commons?
Can you not see the slight problem with what you are saying there Philip?
You think the government is forever correct in whatever it does. It changes policy at the exactly right moment, it was right before not to stop flights, it was right after to stop flights. All is correct and perfectly timed. Even when the Minister himself says flights from Italy 'was a concern'.
At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.
There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.
Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.
But they are definitely, brave Minister.
That's not necessarily accurate.
Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.
Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
No I don't think so.
I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
We're still allowing flights from China and Korea.....
At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.
There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.
Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.
But they are definitely, brave Minister.
That's not necessarily accurate.
Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.
Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
No I don't think so.
I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
We're still allowing flights from China and Korea.....
What will cause the most Consternation and Uproar?
Shagger announces schools to close in line with everyone else? Shagger announces schools are staying open, stuff upper lip and all that?
This, perhaps, explains his drop in popularity. On the one hand those who think he should ignore the "flu" and carry on as normal. On the other hand those who believe he should have closed down the entire country last Monday. A scientifically informed, cautious response has few supporters, apparently.
Such caricature is unhelpful. I would like the government to have taken some additional, modest and sensible steps to contain the virus.
How are you calculating the cost of those steps on the NHS pressure next winter to consider the whole picture? What models do you have? Based on which previous epidemics? How have you factored in NHS staffing levels?
The team making the decisions has done all those steps and hundreds more.
There are so many unknowns in this that to pretend they have calculated the whole thing precisely is fatuous bullshit.
Ultimately it's a judgement call. There are plenty of other experts, like those advising the South Korean government, who have made a different judgement call.
This isn't like me advocating absurd unscientific nonsense. Bearing in mind that the WHO are still advocating a containment strategy, rather than the UK government approach. It's perfectly acceptable to question the "risk disaster now to avoid possible disaster later" strategy. I'm not being thick and unable to understand the nuances.
At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.
There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.
Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.
But they are definitely, brave Minister.
That's not necessarily accurate.
Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.
Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
No I don't think so.
I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
Round and round we go.
Because we aren't going insane.
We are telling people who come home from Italy to self-isolate for 14 days.
Someone was on twitter saying they had been to Alicante should they self isolate and people came back saying yes! There are 22 cases in Alicante province there are more in London, should you self isolate if you have been to London?
If you've been to Alicante you've been through airports touching surfaces touched by travelers from around the world, sat with them in cafes etc, sat on a plane and breathed the recycled air of other passengers at both ends. I appreciate that you could make a similar argument for use of the tube but travel itself is clearly a risk factor which justifies self isolation. We really need to stop it for the time being.
The Dutch Health Minister has said that all public events with more than 100 people have been cancelled. However, schools are not being closed because of "low infection rates".
This schools things seems very important, but unclear. The researchers don't seem to understand to what extent they're carriers, if I've understood it right.
Mark Jit, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who also works with Public Health England, told the Guardian that at this stage of the outbreak, the government’s plan appeared to be a sensible approach.
"The whole world is at the situation now where we don’t expect to contain the virus. There might have been a window early on, but that has now passed … This virus is going to spread … A certain number of people are going to be infected in the UK, and the challenge is that they are not all infected at once. If it all happens at once then that is going to be a really big challenge for the NHS.
“You have to appraise the policies based on the timing. Early on when it looked like it was mainly concentrated in Wuhan countries were trying to prevent cases from entering and to detect the few cases that we had … Now there are countries which are closing schools and are having travel restrictions, but I think the motivation behind that is to really delay the epidemic … I don’t think countries are really expecting to prevent the epidemic.
“I’m not privy to the exact thinking of ministers, but the general thrust of it seems sound. There is no way to really prevent the virus spreading across the UK so the task is really to delay it."
What will cause the most Consternation and Uproar?
Shagger announces schools to close in line with everyone else? Shagger announces schools are staying open, stuff upper lip and all that?
This, perhaps, explains his drop in popularity. On the one hand those who think he should ignore the "flu" and carry on as normal. On the other hand those who believe he should have closed down the entire country last Monday. A scientifically informed, cautious response has few supporters, apparently.
Such caricature is unhelpful. I would like the government to have taken some additional, modest and sensible steps to contain the virus.
How are you calculating the cost of those steps on the NHS pressure next winter to consider the whole picture? What models do you have? Based on which previous epidemics? How have you factored in NHS staffing levels?
The team making the decisions has done all those steps and hundreds more.
There are so many unknowns in this that to pretend they have calculated the whole thing precisely is fatuous bullshit.
Ultimately it's a judgement call. There are plenty of other experts, like those advising the South Korean government, who have made a different judgement call.
This isn't like me advocating absurd unscientific nonsense. Bearing in mind that the WHO are still advocating a containment strategy, rather than the UK government approach. It's perfectly acceptable to question the "risk disaster now to avoid possible disaster later" strategy. I'm not being thick and unable to understand the nuances.
Of course they havent calculated an exact answer but they have definitely calculated probability ranges for these outcomes.
I am not saying your approach is right or wrong, better or worse than the govts.
What I am saying is that why should everyone else take your view over the govts when the govt team has more up to data, more data, more experts, working together full time with the full resources of HMG behind them?
Their view is just more likely to be right, even if we dont know if you are right or they are right (or neither).
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
When Italy was at a similar number, were they much more concentrated in the North of the country? Our's seem to be spread around a lot more.
It will be interesting to see if we get a surge around Merseyside after last night's football match. It's a privilege to hold such a large epidemiological experiment in controlled conditions.
What will cause the most Consternation and Uproar?
Shagger announces schools to close in line with everyone else? Shagger announces schools are staying open, stuff upper lip and all that?
This, perhaps, explains his drop in popularity. On the one hand those who think he should ignore the "flu" and carry on as normal. On the other hand those who believe he should have closed down the entire country last Monday. A scientifically informed, cautious response has few supporters, apparently.
Such caricature is unhelpful. I would like the government to have taken some additional, modest and sensible steps to contain the virus.
How are you calculating the cost of those steps on the NHS pressure next winter to consider the whole picture? What models do you have? Based on which previous epidemics? How have you factored in NHS staffing levels?
The team making the decisions has done all those steps and hundreds more.
There are so many unknowns in this that to pretend they have calculated the whole thing precisely is fatuous bullshit.
Ultimately it's a judgement call. There are plenty of other experts, like those advising the South Korean government, who have made a different judgement call.
This isn't like me advocating absurd unscientific nonsense. Bearing in mind that the WHO are still advocating a containment strategy, rather than the UK government approach. It's perfectly acceptable to question the "risk disaster now to avoid possible disaster later" strategy. I'm not being thick and unable to understand the nuances.
You do know that you are in the same boat as Nigel Farage.
There is some uncertainty, sure. But the way forward is to model it, and make your decisions based on the modelling. That is what the Chief Medical Officer is doing. Different countries have somewhat different strategies because they are facing somewhat different problems.
Or, I suppose we could create a Committee of Eadric, GideonWise, LostPassword and Nigel Farage to take the decisions.
That would be not based on the modelling, but on ... err ... "sensible people taking a common sense approach" -- or some populist rubbish like that.
At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.
There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.
Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.
But they are definitely, brave Minister.
That's not necessarily accurate.
Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.
Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
No I don't think so.
I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
We're still allowing flights from China and Korea.....
And from the USA, where they do not test hardly anybody.....
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Trump needs to do something to reverse that - and fast.
His resignation would probably add 3000 Pts instantly
This is where we get to see who's really in charge, the president or the lizard people. Now that he's costing rich people real money, do they have the power to get rid of him?
Is he, or is he creating shorting opportunities for them, while the ordinary people with their 401(K)s get clobbered?
Later on, they can buy back in at reduced prices, and stuff the little guy both ways.
Believers in Lizard People would presumably be inclined to measure this by the performance of the Rothschild family investment trust?
In which case, they've lost 17% since the peak earlier this year. Less than the headline equity indices, but then I presume they're not 100% equity long-only.
At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.
There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.
Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.
But they are definitely, brave Minister.
That's not necessarily accurate.
Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.
Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
No I don't think so.
I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
We're still allowing flights from China and Korea.....
And from the USA, where they do not test hardly anybody.....
And Italy. There's one setting off from Milan to Edinburgh soon.
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.
There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.
Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.
But they are definitely, brave Minister.
That's not necessarily accurate.
Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.
Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
No I don't think so.
I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
We're still allowing flights from China and Korea.....
And from the USA, where they do not test hardly anybody.....
And Italy. There's one setting off from Milan to Edinburgh soon.
I think we are under an obligation to repatriate our citizens, like Barnesian, who went out to Italy.
If they follow the advice and self-isolate on return, I think that is OK.
The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.
How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.
How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
Surely if we are on different exponential paths the absolute difference is likely to increase every day?
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
Surely if we are on different exponential paths the absolute difference is likely to increase every day?
It's never going to be a smooth curve is it? It (the rate of increase) is bound to fluctuate.
The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.
How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
If those 10 would have died from flu anyway, likely as they were elderly and ill, is that a sign we might all be over worrying, and the media attention on Coronavirus is hiding the possibilty that in terms of deaths, there is no change on a normal year if you combine flu deaths and CV deaths?
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
The majority of coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to show symptoms, scientists have found.
An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.
The finding has dismayed infectious disease researchers as it means that isolating people once they start to feel ill will be far less effective at slowing the pandemic than had been hoped.
What will cause the most Consternation and Uproar?
Shagger announces schools to close in line with everyone else? Shagger announces schools are staying open, stuff upper lip and all that?
This, perhaps, explains his drop in popularity. On the one hand those who think he should ignore the "flu" and carry on as normal. On the other hand those who believe he should have closed down the entire country last Monday. A scientifically informed, cautious response has few supporters, apparently.
Such caricature is unhelpful. I would like the government to have taken some additional, modest and sensible steps to contain the virus.
How are you calculating the cost of those steps on the NHS pressure next winter to consider the whole picture? What models do you have? Based on which previous epidemics? How have you factored in NHS staffing levels?
The team making the decisions has done all those steps and hundreds more.
There are so many unknowns in this that to pretend they have calculated the whole thing precisely is fatuous bullshit.
Ultimately it's a judgement call. There are plenty of other experts, like those advising the South Korean government, who have made a different judgement call.
This isn't like me advocating absurd unscientific nonsense. Bearing in mind that the WHO are still advocating a containment strategy, rather than the UK government approach. It's perfectly acceptable to question the "risk disaster now to avoid possible disaster later" strategy. I'm not being thick and unable to understand the nuances.
You do know that you are in the same boat as Nigel Farage.
There is some uncertainty, sure. But the way forward is to model it, and make your decisions based on the modelling. That is what the Chief Medical Officer is doing. Different countries have somewhat different strategies because they are facing somewhat different problems.
Or, I suppose we could create a Committee of Eadric, GideonWise, LostPassword and Nigel Farage to take the decisions.
That would be not based on the modelling, but on ... err ... "sensible people taking a common sense approach" -- or some populist rubbish like that.
At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.
There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.
Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.
But they are definitely, brave Minister.
That's not necessarily accurate.
Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.
Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
No I don't think so.
I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
We're still allowing flights from China and Korea.....
And from the USA, where they do not test hardly anybody.....
And Italy. There's one setting off from Milan to Edinburgh soon.
I think we are under an obligation to repatriate our citizens, like Barnesian, who went out to Italy.
If they follow the advice and self-isolate on return, I think that is OK.
I think one of the things that we have to think about is whether we trust them to do that or force them to do that. Compulsory quarantine would also bring it home to people how reckless they were going to the likes of Italy in the first place and discourage others from going to similar locations where flights are still available.
The majority of coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to show symptoms, scientists have found.
An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.
The finding has dismayed infectious disease researchers as it means that isolating people once they start to feel ill will be far less effective at slowing the pandemic than had been hoped.
What will cause the most Consternation and Uproar?
Shagger announces schools to close in line with everyone else? Shagger announces schools are staying open, stuff upper lip and all that?
This, perhaps, explains his drop in popularity. On the one hand those who think he should ignore the "flu" and carry on as normal. On the other hand those who believe he should have closed down the entire country last Monday. A scientifically informed, cautious response has few supporters, apparently.
Such caricature is unhelpful. I would like the government to have taken some additional, modest and sensible steps to contain the virus.
How are you calculating the cost of those steps on the NHS pressure next winter to consider the whole picture? What models do you have? Based on which previous epidemics? How have you factored in NHS staffing levels?
The team making the decisions has done all those steps and hundreds more.
There are so many unknowns in this that to pretend they have calculated the whole thing precisely is fatuous bullshit.
Ultimately it's a judgement call. There are plenty of other experts, like those advising the South Korean government, who have made a different judgement call.
This isn't like me advocating absurd unscientific nonsense. Bearing in mind that the WHO are still advocating a containment strategy, rather than the UK government approach. It's perfectly acceptable to question the "risk disaster now to avoid possible disaster later" strategy. I'm not being thick and unable to understand the nuances.
You do know that you are in the same boat as Nigel Farage.
There is some uncertainty, sure. But the way forward is to model it, and make your decisions based on the modelling. That is what the Chief Medical Officer is doing. Different countries have somewhat different strategies because they are facing somewhat different problems.
Or, I suppose we could create a Committee of Eadric, GideonWise, LostPassword and Nigel Farage to take the decisions.
That would be not based on the modelling, but on ... err ... "sensible people taking a common sense approach" -- or some populist rubbish like that.
The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.
How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
If those 10 would have died from flu anyway, likely as they were elderly and ill, is that a sign we might all be over worrying, and the media attention on Coronavirus is hiding the possibilty that in terms of deaths, there is no change on a normal year if you combine flu deaths and CV deaths?
The problem that Italy are seeing at the moment is that people are not getting operations and other treatment because there are so many Covid-19 cases. These are people who need to be in hospital, a large proportion of whom will survive, rather than people who can be left to "die peacefully in their sleep".
The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.
How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
Hong Kong - 2 Covid-19 deaths - Aren't they doing well! Quick, copy what they're doing!
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
Surely if we are on different exponential paths the absolute difference is likely to increase every day?
It's never going to be a smooth curve is it? It (the rate of increase) is bound to fluctuate.
There will certainly be noise but the point of exponential growth is that the differences multiply much faster than linear growth. There have been some suggestions, from @AndreaParma_82 I think, that Italy's growth is now linear rather than exponential which would be a start.
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
Surely if we are on different exponential paths the absolute difference is likely to increase every day?
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
We're not on the curve. Its a meaningless comparison and today's data shows that as has prior data.
Trying to force us onto their data just introduces rounding errors. Facts show nearly a hundred fewer cases and you're claiming no divergence, its absurd.
The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.
How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
Hong Kong - 2 Covid-19 deaths - Aren't they doing well! Quick, copy what they're doing!
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
Surely if we are on different exponential paths the absolute difference is likely to increase every day?
It's never going to be a smooth curve is it? It (the rate of increase) is bound to fluctuate.
There will certainly be noise but the point of exponential growth is that the differences multiply much faster than linear growth. There have been some suggestions, from @AndreaParma_82 I think, that Italy's growth is now linear rather than exponential which would be a start.
Something like a Gaussian Process is what is required here, as it will provide a fit to the data including the levels of uncertainty.
I could actually do the modelling, but I don't know if I want to think about it that carefully for my own mental wellbeing.
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.
How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
If those 10 would have died from flu anyway, likely as they were elderly and ill, is that a sign we might all be over worrying, and the media attention on Coronavirus is hiding the possibilty that in terms of deaths, there is no change on a normal year if you combine flu deaths and CV deaths?
The problem that Italy are seeing at the moment is that people are not getting operations and other treatment because there are so many Covid-19 cases. These are people who need to be in hospital, a large proportion of whom will survive, rather than people who can be left to "die peacefully in their sleep".
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
Surely if we are on different exponential paths the absolute difference is likely to increase every day?
Yes that's my point. We're on different paths and the data is showing that with exponentially growing divergences.
At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.
There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.
Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.
But they are definitely, brave Minister.
That's not necessarily accurate.
Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.
Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
No I don't think so.
I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
We're still allowing flights from China and Korea.....
And from the USA, where they do not test hardly anybody.....
And Italy. There's one setting off from Milan to Edinburgh soon.
I think we are under an obligation to repatriate our citizens, like Barnesian, who went out to Italy.
If they follow the advice and self-isolate on return, I think that is OK.
I think one of the things that we have to think about is whether we trust them to do that or force them to do that. Compulsory quarantine would also bring it home to people how reckless they were going to the likes of Italy in the first place and discourage others from going to similar locations where flights are still available.
Reckless? Simon Calder was actively encouraging it two weeks ago! To old people! I was literally pulling my hair out listening to it.
No-one was on the phone from PHE ringing up 5Live to tell him stfu.
When all this is analysed in years to come they will think we were *mad*.
What will cause the most Consternation and Uproar?
Shagger announces schools to close in line with everyone else? Shagger announces schools are staying open, stuff upper lip and all that?
This, perhaps, explains his drop in popularity. On the one hand those who think he should ignore the "flu" and carry on as normal. On the other hand those who believe he should have closed down the entire country last Monday. A scientifically informed, cautious response has few supporters, apparently.
Such caricature is unhelpful. I would like the government to have taken some additional, modest and sensible steps to contain the virus.
How are you calculating the cost of those steps on the NHS pressure next winter to consider the whole picture? What models do you have? Based on which previous epidemics? How have you factored in NHS staffing levels?
The team making the decisions has done all those steps and hundreds more.
There are so many unknowns in this that to pretend they have calculated the whole thing precisely is fatuous bullshit.
Ultimately it's a judgement call. There are plenty of other experts, like those advising the South Korean government, who have made a different judgement call.
This isn't like me advocating absurd unscientific nonsense. Bearing in mind that the WHO are still advocating a containment strategy, rather than the UK government approach. It's perfectly acceptable to question the "risk disaster now to avoid possible disaster later" strategy. I'm not being thick and unable to understand the nuances.
You do know that you are in the same boat as Nigel Farage.
There is some uncertainty, sure. But the way forward is to model it, and make your decisions based on the modelling. That is what the Chief Medical Officer is doing. Different countries have somewhat different strategies because they are facing somewhat different problems.
Or, I suppose we could create a Committee of Eadric, GideonWise, LostPassword and Nigel Farage to take the decisions.
That would be not based on the modelling, but on ... err ... "sensible people taking a common sense approach" -- or some populist rubbish like that.
Sounds like a fun committee.
Yes, I think it would be a lot of fun
There is the danger that Eadric would attend in full protective costume & ask the other committee members to sheep-dip in disinfectant.
So we should get the updated stats on how many cases there are in the UK soon.
For those who claim we're tracking Italy "days behind" we should see ~671 cases in today's update. I don't think we will.
UK yesterday 460 Italy 26/2 445 Italy 27/2 650
Highly unlikely if we are still only testing a couple of thousand people a day. That would imply 30% of tests coming back positive.
It's a bit like Trump's strategy - the numbers can't escalate too much if you aren't testing people. Anecdotaly lots of people with symptoms are being told to self-isolate without any testing.
The strategy may be correct but I doubt that simply looking at the daily numbers tells us the whole story.
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
Surely if we are on different exponential paths the absolute difference is likely to increase every day?
What’s happening to death rates and is anyone tracking hospitalisation (or even ICU) figures?
One question of course is whether confirmed tests or extrapolation from deaths are better indications of overall numbers.
So we should get the updated stats on how many cases there are in the UK soon.
For those who claim we're tracking Italy "days behind" we should see ~671 cases in today's update. I don't think we will.
UK yesterday 460 Italy 26/2 445 Italy 27/2 650
Highly unlikely if we are still only testing a couple of thousand people a day. That would imply 30% of tests coming back positive.
It's a bit like Trump's strategy - the numbers can't escalate too much if you aren't testing people. Anecdotaly lots of people with symptoms are being told to self-isolate without any testing.
The strategy may be correct but I doubt that simply looking at the daily numbers tells us the whole story.
The testing levels seem similar to Italy's at the time, though, if I'm not wrong. We're also testing more widely geographically than Italy was at the same point in the process, I think, although I'd need that confirmed.
What will cause the most Consternation and Uproar?
Shagger announces schools to close in line with everyone else? Shagger announces schools are staying open, stuff upper lip and all that?
This, perhaps, explains his drop in popularity. On the one hand those who think he should ignore the "flu" and carry on as normal. On the other hand those who believe he should have closed down the entire country last Monday. A scientifically informed, cautious response has few supporters, apparently.
Such caricature is unhelpful. I would like the government to have taken some additional, modest and sensible steps to contain the virus.
How are you calculating the cost of those steps on the NHS pressure next winter to consider the whole picture? What models do you have? Based on which previous epidemics? How have you factored in NHS staffing levels?
The team making the decisions has done all those steps and hundreds more.
There are so many unknowns in this that to pretend they have calculated the whole thing precisely is fatuous bullshit.
Ultimately it's a judgement call. There are plenty of other experts, like those advising the South Korean government, who have made a different judgement call.
This isn't like me advocating absurd unscientific nonsense. Bearing in mind that the WHO are still advocating a containment strategy, rather than the UK government approach. It's perfectly acceptable to question the "risk disaster now to avoid possible disaster later" strategy. I'm not being thick and unable to understand the nuances.
You do know that you are in the same boat as Nigel Farage.
There is some uncertainty, sure. But the way forward is to model it, and make your decisions based on the modelling. That is what the Chief Medical Officer is doing. Different countries have somewhat different strategies because they are facing somewhat different problems.
Or, I suppose we could create a Committee of Eadric, GideonWise, LostPassword and Nigel Farage to take the decisions.
That would be not based on the modelling, but on ... err ... "sensible people taking a common sense approach" -- or some populist rubbish like that.
Sounds like a fun committee.
Yes, I think it would be a lot of fun
There is the danger that Eadric would attend in full protective costume & ask the other committee members to sheep-dip in disinfectant.
If anyone so much as sniffs they will drop through the floor never to be seen again.
At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.
There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.
Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.
But they are definitely, brave Minister.
That's not necessarily accurate.
Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.
Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
No I don't think so.
I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
We're still allowing flights from China and Korea.....
And from the USA, where they do not test hardly anybody.....
And Italy. There's one setting off from Milan to Edinburgh soon.
I think we are under an obligation to repatriate our citizens, like Barnesian, who went out to Italy.
If they follow the advice and self-isolate on return, I think that is OK.
I think one of the things that we have to think about is whether we trust them to do that or force them to do that. Compulsory quarantine would also bring it home to people how reckless they were going to the likes of Italy in the first place and discourage others from going to similar locations where flights are still available.
Reckless? Simon Calder was actively encouraging it two weeks ago! To old people! I was literally pulling my hair out listening to it.
No-one was on the phone from PHE ringing up 5Live to tell him stfu.
When all this is analysed in years to come they will think we were *mad*.
The 2 new deaths, an 89 year old and a lady in 60s, both that had been unwell with significant other health conditions.
How many people have died in the Coronavirus era of regular flu? How many have died of Coronavirus that wouldn't have died of normal flu?
How many people are now being saved from death by normal flu by additional social distancing and hand washing? Might be more than Covid19 deaths at the moment?
Death toll now up to 10 vs ~10,000 dying from flu in a normal year (confirmed by CMO in a press conference recently since some people have claimed wildly differing figures for that).
If those 10 would have died from flu anyway, likely as they were elderly and ill, is that a sign we might all be over worrying, and the media attention on Coronavirus is hiding the possibilty that in terms of deaths, there is no change on a normal year if you combine flu deaths and CV deaths?
The problem that Italy are seeing at the moment is that people are not getting operations and other treatment because there are so many Covid-19 cases. These are people who need to be in hospital, a large proportion of whom will survive, rather than people who can be left to "die peacefully in their sleep".
I think that is is not "overworrying"
"die peacefully in their sleep"
Who are you quoting there?
My understanding is that a lot of these poor souls are effectively dying of asphyxiation as they can't get oxygen into their lungs. The luckier ones have coronary incidents brought on by the stress of that. This really doesn't sound pleasant, not at all.
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
Surely if we are on different exponential paths the absolute difference is likely to increase every day?
It's never going to be a smooth curve is it? It (the rate of increase) is bound to fluctuate.
There will certainly be noise but the point of exponential growth is that the differences multiply much faster than linear growth. There have been some suggestions, from @AndreaParma_82 I think, that Italy's growth is now linear rather than exponential which would be a start.
Something like a Gaussian Process is what is required here, as it will provide a fit to the data including the levels of uncertainty.
The total number of counts for epidemics will usually follow a cumulative Gaussian curve or a logistic/sigmoid curve. The difference between the two is not worth discussing here.
This means that the number of new cases will be like a Gaussian bell curve. The new cases (counts) will be much more variable around the idealised curve than for the cumulative counts.
The problem is we are at the start of the curve and so fitting a Gaussian curve to the new cases or a logistic curve to the total cases and extrapolating into the future has exactly the same problems as Henrietta's models from last week.
At least a few things are clearer today than they were yesterday.
There are range of strategies. Different experts have different views. Those citing experts and denigrating individuals on here taking a different view because they don't align with the experts were clearly wrong.
Now the question is who are the best experts? Well our experts are taking quite a different strategy to the East Asians and now to many of our Western neighbours. They might be right, they might be wrong.
But they are definitely, brave Minister.
That's not necessarily accurate.
Our experts have said there will be a time when they need to make decisions that other nations have made, but its not yet.
Given the UK is testing more than other nations are and having thus fewer "wild" cases than nations are it is entirely possible the time has come for other nations but not us yet.
No I don't think so.
I think what is clear now is there are two fundamentally different approaches. The first approach is to stomp this out at source. The second approach is to accept it is inevitable and manage it. We are going for the latter. Others are going for the former.
I disagree. With all our testing we're doing more than other countries in Europe to stomp this out at source.
So why have we allowed flights in from Italy (just a few days ago) and Spain (ongoing).
We're still allowing flights from China and Korea.....
And from the USA, where they do not test hardly anybody.....
And Italy. There's one setting off from Milan to Edinburgh soon.
I think we are under an obligation to repatriate our citizens, like Barnesian, who went out to Italy.
If they follow the advice and self-isolate on return, I think that is OK.
I think one of the things that we have to think about is whether we trust them to do that or force them to do that. Compulsory quarantine would also bring it home to people how reckless they were going to the likes of Italy in the first place and discourage others from going to similar locations where flights are still available.
Reckless? Simon Calder was actively encouraging it two weeks ago! To old people! I was literally pulling my hair out listening to it.
No-one was on the phone from PHE ringing up 5Live to tell him stfu.
When all this is analysed in years to come they will think we were *mad*.
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
Indeed. We're not "14 days behind Italy" because we're not growing now at the same rate Italy grew 14 days ago.
You can't just track numbers you need to track velocity too. If velocity is not the same then you are not going to go to the same place.
Its like there is a roundabout for getting on/off a motorway. One car uses the roundabout gets on a clear motorway and drives at 90mph [Italy]. After an hour car A has travelled 90 miles.
An hour later car B uses the roundabout, enters a city with a 30mph speed limit and repeated traffic lights. In an hour's time will the second vehicle have travelled 90 miles just because car A did from the same point an hour before?
3 Leicester players join Van Dijk in self imposed isolation.
What a shame if Liverpool don't win the league ;-)
If the season ends surely Liverpool have won it. Be farcical not to recognise that.
The PL is won by the team that has most points after playing the other 19 teams home and away. Those are the rules. They can't be bent for Liverpool's convenience. Let the candlelit vigil begin.
We really aren't running that much behind Italy now.
Yes we really are, and we are diverging faster and faster.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
I said it had slipped by two days since Sunday compared to Italy(which could easily be 1 and a half). At best that is diverging. That is not diverging faster and faster.
Yes it is, its diverging faster and faster because of the exponential growth of the divergence.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
But the UK is still 14 days behind Italy on the curve. And look what has happened to Italy. You really cannot look at the current UK statistics and think things are getting better.
I think Philip's point is that they are getting worse but more slowly than Italy did. If you go for the "ideal time" approach that is clearly important.
Indeed. We're not "14 days behind Italy" because we're not growing now at the same rate Italy grew 14 days ago.
You can't just track numbers you need to track velocity too. If velocity is not the same then you are not going to go to the same place.
Its like there is a roundabout for getting on/off a motorway. One car uses the roundabout gets on a clear motorway and drives at 90mph [Italy]. After an hour car A has travelled 90 miles.
An hour later car B uses the roundabout, enters a city with a 30mph speed limit and repeated traffic lights. In an hour's time will the second vehicle have travelled 90 miles just because car A did from the same point an hour before?
You surely need to take a rolling average of a few days' figures rather than take one day in isolation?
Comments
They are not closing the school.
1) Complete this season whenever is possible - perhaps shortening next season.
2) Cancel it now and decide based on first 19 games (doubt they'd do this).
Either way, I don't fancy your chances.
Later on, they can buy back in at reduced prices, and stuff the little guy both ways.
Can you not see the slight problem with what you are saying there Philip?
You think the government is forever correct in whatever it does. It changes policy at the exactly right moment, it was right before not to stop flights, it was right after to stop flights. All is correct and perfectly timed. Even when the Minister himself says flights from Italy 'was a concern'.
It's sweet if a little embarrassing.
Worth remembering coronavirus arrived in the UK and in Italy on the very same day.
Japan adding almost exactly +50 new cases for the third day running, hopefully that's not just the number of test kits they're giving out...
Ultimately it's a judgement call. There are plenty of other experts, like those advising the South Korean government, who have made a different judgement call.
This isn't like me advocating absurd unscientific nonsense. Bearing in mind that the WHO are still advocating a containment strategy, rather than the UK government approach. It's perfectly acceptable to question the "risk disaster now to avoid possible disaster later" strategy. I'm not being thick and unable to understand the nuances.
However, schools are not being closed because of "low infection rates".
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/uk-coronavirus-updates-live-delay-phase-a4385196.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584023796
Herd immunity?
"The whole world is at the situation now where we don’t expect to contain the virus. There might have been a window early on, but that has now passed … This virus is going to spread … A certain number of people are going to be infected in the UK, and the challenge is that they are not all infected at once. If it all happens at once then that is going to be a really big challenge for the NHS.
“You have to appraise the policies based on the timing. Early on when it looked like it was mainly concentrated in Wuhan countries were trying to prevent cases from entering and to detect the few cases that we had … Now there are countries which are closing schools and are having travel restrictions, but I think the motivation behind that is to really delay the epidemic … I don’t think countries are really expecting to prevent the epidemic.
“I’m not privy to the exact thinking of ministers, but the general thrust of it seems sound. There is no way to really prevent the virus spreading across the UK so the task is really to delay it."
I am not saying your approach is right or wrong, better or worse than the govts.
What I am saying is that why should everyone else take your view over the govts when the govt team has more up to data, more data, more experts, working together full time with the full resources of HMG behind them?
Their view is just more likely to be right, even if we dont know if you are right or they are right (or neither).
There is some uncertainty, sure. But the way forward is to model it, and make your decisions based on the modelling. That is what the Chief Medical Officer is doing. Different countries have somewhat different strategies because they are facing somewhat different problems.
Or, I suppose we could create a Committee of Eadric, GideonWise, LostPassword and Nigel Farage to take the decisions.
That would be not based on the modelling, but on ... err ... "sensible people taking a common sense approach" -- or some populist rubbish like that.
Wards have been shut at Wycombe and Stoke Mandeville Hospitals, in Buckinghamshire, after 'a number' of patients were diagnosed with Covid-19.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11158986/uk-coronavirus-stoke-mandeville-wycombe-hospital/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-51856312
In which case, they've lost 17% since the peak earlier this year. Less than the headline equity indices, but then I presume they're not 100% equity long-only.
Today our cases grew by 130 vs 211 if we were tracking Italy but weeks behind, a divergence of 81.
Diverging by 81 now is much faster than we'd diverged in the past in a single day.
If they follow the advice and self-isolate on return, I think that is OK.
However, if worried talk to a medic/ nurse
Thanks all
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/28890040/ipl-2020-likely-take-place-closed-doors
I'm guessing The Hundred is going to be screwed. At least the England team are already in Sri Lanka!
Probably win it next year if there is any justice in the world.
Which there isn't.
By reopening it, you introduce a highly probable method for community infection.
On the other hand, closing the school causes terrible problems for the families with two working parents.
There are no easy answers.
The majority of coronavirus infections may be spread by people who have recently caught the virus and have not yet begun to show symptoms, scientists have found.
An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.
The finding has dismayed infectious disease researchers as it means that isolating people once they start to feel ill will be far less effective at slowing the pandemic than had been hoped.
I think that is is not "overworrying"
PLUS 100 Flu deaths......
Trying to force us onto their data just introduces rounding errors. Facts show nearly a hundred fewer cases and you're claiming no divergence, its absurd.
I could actually do the modelling, but I don't know if I want to think about it that carefully for my own mental wellbeing.
Who are you quoting there?
No-one was on the phone from PHE ringing up 5Live to tell him stfu.
When all this is analysed in years to come they will think we were *mad*.
There is the danger that Eadric would attend in full protective costume & ask the other committee members to sheep-dip in disinfectant.
It's a bit like Trump's strategy - the numbers can't escalate too much if you aren't testing people. Anecdotaly lots of people with symptoms are being told to self-isolate without any testing.
The strategy may be correct but I doubt that simply looking at the daily numbers tells us the whole story.
One question of course is whether confirmed tests or extrapolation from deaths are better indications of overall numbers.
This means that the number of new cases will be like a Gaussian bell curve. The new cases (counts) will be much more variable around the idealised curve than for the cumulative counts.
The problem is we are at the start of the curve and so fitting a Gaussian curve to the new cases or a logistic curve to the total cases and extrapolating into the future has exactly the same problems as Henrietta's models from last week.
You can't just track numbers you need to track velocity too. If velocity is not the same then you are not going to go to the same place.
Its like there is a roundabout for getting on/off a motorway. One car uses the roundabout gets on a clear motorway and drives at 90mph [Italy]. After an hour car A has travelled 90 miles.
An hour later car B uses the roundabout, enters a city with a 30mph speed limit and repeated traffic lights. In an hour's time will the second vehicle have travelled 90 miles just because car A did from the same point an hour before?
The PL is won by the team that has most points after playing the other 19 teams home and away. Those are the rules. They can't be bent for Liverpool's convenience. Let the candlelit vigil begin.