We're being ruled by those who can't be bothered to isolate and do what is necessary. I really can't believe what I'm hearing.
These guys are trying to model the behaviour of millions of people.
What do they know? They only have a staff of dozens/hundreds and a budget of millions. I'm sure @ukpaul has the same resources at his fingertips.
So you're happy to run the risk of serious illness just because a bunch of people think it's just a bit of the flu and the kids won't take any notice anyway?
I think Johnson's first words were "this is not flu".
Ah, I'm not referring to the government, I'm referring to the mass of people who are dismissing the whole thing as being 'hyped'. Government by the slowest to catch on. It's not exactly Churchillian is it?
In your original comment you were talking about who we were being ruled by. Aren't we ruled by the government?
Yes, but they are making decisions based on when the population will listen to them. Seriously, other countries must be getting very unnerved about that whole approach.
That seems sensible to me. The last thing you want is people starting to ignore the advice at the peak of the outbreak.
I'm pretty damn certain now that the CMO and CSO do not believe the Chinese figures.
Last question exactly on that point.
Kinda ducked. But they do not believe that you can stop the widespread infection indefinitely.
They've said that for every case found in the UK there are probably 10 that haven't been found. Is it remotely plausible that China is doing perfect identification of cases? No, so there must be many more cases in China, maybe even hundreds of thousands. We will know if that is the case over the coming months.
We're being ruled by those who can't be bothered to isolate and do what is necessary. I really can't believe what I'm hearing.
These guys are trying to model the behaviour of millions of people.
What do they know? They only have a staff of dozens/hundreds and a budget of millions. I'm sure @ukpaul has the same resources at his fingertips.
So you're happy to run the risk of serious illness just because a bunch of people think it's just a bit of the flu and the kids won't take any notice anyway?
I think Johnson's first words were "this is not flu".
Ah, I'm not referring to the government, I'm referring to the mass of people who are dismissing the whole thing as being 'hyped'. Government by the slowest to catch on. It's not exactly Churchillian is it?
In your original comment you were talking about who we were being ruled by. Aren't we ruled by the government?
Yes, but they are making decisions based on when the population will listen to them. Seriously, other countries must be getting very unnerved about that whole approach.
That seems sensible to me. The last thing you want is people starting to ignore the advice at the peak of the outbreak.
Enforce it, they seem to think that they are too weak to impose their will.
I'm pretty damn certain now that the CMO and CSO do not believe the Chinese figures.
Last question exactly on that point.
Kinda ducked. But they do not believe that you can stop the widespread infection indefinitely.
I think that is key. It seems their view is not necessarily that they don't believe the current figures but that they believe that once the restrictions that are allowing those producing those figures are lifted there will be a sharp rise yet again in cases.
I don't know if they are right on this but it makes sense that if there is no immunity then in reality the only way the lockdown system can work is to have it in place permanently and of such rigour that ever single case is captured. As soon as you remove the lockdown, if any cases ay all have survived, then you are straight back where you were again.
Mother-in-law has taken a turn for the worse. The NHS response has been extraordinary. We had an ambulance crew out last night, a doctor’s visit today, tomorrow we will get a hospital bed installed in our house for her and access to 24 hour emergency care. Absolutely fantastic.
So the Government are quite happy for me to get out and about and catch it.
Why the feck don't they even advise people to WFH if they can?
Maybe not everyone feels the need for the government to tell them what they should do? If you are worried about catching it whilst out and about, stay indoors! It is allowed, even if the PM hasn't ordered it
It's far harder to square that away with your work when the government hasn't even recommended it.
What are you supposed to do if you are an elevated risk group but you have dependents? Goverbent says you should just carry and change nothing. So many people are going to get sick because their work and or child's school won't co-operate with them
We're being ruled by those who can't be bothered to isolate and do what is necessary. I really can't believe what I'm hearing.
These guys are trying to model the behaviour of millions of people.
What do they know? They only have a staff of dozens/hundreds and a budget of millions. I'm sure @ukpaul has the same resources at his fingertips.
So you're happy to run the risk of serious illness just because a bunch of people think it's just a bit of the flu and the kids won't take any notice anyway?
I think Johnson's first words were "this is not flu".
Ah, I'm not referring to the government, I'm referring to the mass of people who are dismissing the whole thing as being 'hyped'. Government by the slowest to catch on. It's not exactly Churchillian is it?
In your original comment you were talking about who we were being ruled by. Aren't we ruled by the government?
Yes, but they are making decisions based on when the population will listen to them. Seriously, other countries must be getting very unnerved about that whole approach.
That seems sensible to me. The last thing you want is people starting to ignore the advice at the peak of the outbreak.
Enforce it, they seem to think that they are too weak to impose their will.
Enforce it? lol... with a population of 70 million?
I think the one thing they're not addressing is that actually, yes, even if we get v things right now, release the lockdown at the right time not to have an immediate uptick, then we still go through this again next winter.
It may be a message for another day, but I'm not sure it will go down well.
I don't like the pessimism that it isn't possible to hide away the elderly. Unlike kids or working age adults, they don't need to go to school or work.
I am 100% certain oldies can manage 3 months inside.
I know grand-parents look after kids, but surely schools can do after-school clubs (if you scrap the requirements of adult / kids ratios).
There is a tension between the public advice they dole out based on what they think most people can do (or behaviourally, what they will do when given instructions) versus the scientific advice that a self-interested risk-minimiser would like to receive to pull off their strategy as safely as possible, if they felt confident they were sufficiently determined and wouldn't get lazy later. Someone who really wants to dodge the disease, or has loved ones they want to protect, is going to have to listen to something other than the official advice and work some stuff out for themselves. I think that's just how it is. Figuring out last week that they ought to avoid cruises wasn't too hard. Figuring out what reasonable next steps to take might be a bit trickier. I hope more detailed official advice on "cocooning" comes out later.
Ahh, by the sound of it, that more detailed advice to high-risk groups is only going to come out later. Not convinced going and chatting to the GP is the best use of the GP's time (and probably not a good place for me to be going!).
CMO also calmly explaining why timing is critical. Emphasising that this is "for the long haul".
The UK's scientists are explaining shutdowns will be for months. Other nations are saying we're shutting down for 2 weeks.
I know who I think is more realistic.
This is a remarkably honest presentation, along the lines of our discussion this morning. He even admitted at the beginning that more infections, prior to a lockdown, are desirable.
That latter admission was surprisingly transparent given how damaging it might be to public trust (at least among a small but vocal section of the public), particularly compared to some of the other subjects that were deliberately skirted around!
I haven’t got even a smidgeon of a doubt about Johnson’s sincerity or that he is deferring to scientific advice. I don’t know if the government’s approach is right. No-one does. I trust absolutely that the decisions it is taking and the recommendations it is making are all about doing what is best for the country and the people in it. Sturgeon is the same, as is just about every political leader in every democracy everywhere. There is just one glaring exception to this rule that I can see.
Us departing from what other nations are doing will cost or save tens of thousands of lives in this country. I'm leaning towards save.
Also, if we are four weeks behind Italy (according to the CSO/CMO) where does that put them w.r.t. the peak? It would suggest their peak will be in about 4 weeks I think? Is that correct?
I'm not sure what their peak is supposed to be, as the outcomes on their graph are moving strikingly in the opposite direction, so far, from their increase in cases.
Why do people not understand that constantly offering comparisons on positive tests is grossly misleading when so dependent on variable factors unlinked to spread of the illness. Such as availability of test and testing criteria thresholds. What really matters (as far as numbers are concerned) are hospitalisation, requirements for ICU spaces (perhaps normalised for capacity) and deaths.
Those are figures which will be far more revealing about how we or others are managing, and in comparison to each other, and which approaches are more successful (whilst accounting for variable differences between countries’ circumstances)
Also, if we are four weeks behind Italy (according to the CSO/CMO) where does that put them w.r.t. the peak? It would suggest their peak will be in about 4 weeks I think? Is that correct?
Also, if we are four weeks behind Italy (according to the CSO/CMO) where does that put them w.r.t. the peak? It would suggest their peak will be in about 4 weeks I think? Is that correct?
As we discussed this morning the key to the government approach is the belief that the spread of this virus cannot be stopped. If it can't everything they are doing to smooth the curve and delay the peak until summer makes perfect sense.
But if the east Asia countries show that belief is wrong we are facing an unnecessary tragedy. Their worst case scenario is 520k dead (65m x 0.8 x 1%). I mean, fuck.
China is currently just over 3k deaths. Are they really saying on the same basis that ultimately 9.6m Chinese may die of this despite all their efforts? It's mindblowing and not supported by the current evidence.
Its a massive call. But the scientists are impressive and measured, there is no denying that. If they are right then China's numbers are likely to start increasing again at some point as they try to return to anything like normal. We shall see.
I haven’t got even a smidgeon of a doubt about Johnson’s sincerity or that he is deferring to scientific advice. I don’t know if the government’s approach is right. No-one does. I trust absolutely that the decisions it is taking and the recommendations it is making are all about doing what is best for the country and the people in it. Sturgeon is the same, as is just about every political leader in every democracy everywhere. There is just one glaring exception to this rule that I can see.
Us departing from what other nations are doing will cost or save tens of thousands of lives in this country. I'm leaning towards save.
I honestly don't know. But I do understand the underlying logic of what they are trying to do and from a position of relative ignorance all I can do is hope that they are right and take personal actions to protect my family.
Also, if we are four weeks behind Italy (according to the CSO/CMO) where does that put them w.r.t. the peak? It would suggest their peak will be in about 4 weeks I think? Is that correct?
Actually, I think that must make a fourfold increase in those healed per day in Italy, a reduction in new intensive care cases, and a reduction in deaths per day.
The number of cases is increasing but the prognosis seems to be going in the opposite direction and getting better.
The exponential growth in Italy does seem to have stopped. The number of cases are still increasing though.
As we discussed this morning the key to the government approach is the belief that the spread of this virus cannot be stopped. If it can't everything they are doing to smooth the curve and delay the peak until summer makes perfect sense.
But if the east Asia countries show that belief is wrong we are facing an unnecessary tragedy. Their worst case scenario is 520k dead (65m x 0.8 x 1%). I mean, fuck.
China is currently just over 3k deaths. Are they really saying on the same basis that ultimately 9.6m Chinese may die of this despite all their efforts? It's mindblowing and not supported by the current evidence.
Its a massive call. But the scientists are impressive and measured, there is no denying that. If they are right then China's numbers are likely to start increasing again at some point as they try to return to anything like normal. We shall see.
Yes, this is the central issue. It definitely feels like a big gamble but I can't be sure whether it's the UK or China that is taking the gamble.
That still leaves the lying cheating thick bell end leading us.
Johnson is a chancer and a charlatan, but he is not Trump. Johnson wants to save lives and will defer to expertise. Trump doesn’t care about anyone or anything but himself.
I haven’t got even a smidgeon of a doubt about Johnson’s sincerity or that he is deferring to scientific advice. I don’t know if the government’s approach is right. No-one does. I trust absolutely that the decisions it is taking and the recommendations it is making are all about doing what is best for the country and the people in it. Sturgeon is the same, as is just about every political leader in every democracy everywhere. There is just one glaring exception to this rule that I can see.
Well said. I agree, about both Sturgeon and Johnson.
And to be fair, I think the same would be true if Labour were in charge. And I even think the same would be true if Corbyn's Labour were in charge.
I should also say that the scientific expertise in the UK or Germany or France is much higher than in many of the countries that have gone into complete lockdown.
There are not large-scale school closures in the UK or Germany or France (though some schools in the hotspots are shut).
I think that shows that the advice Boris is getting is similar to the advice that Macron or Merkel are getting. That is reassuring.
Have they explained what kind of numbers they think the peak will be? Are we looking at significant growth from here or is the peak going to be lowwwww and sustained?
Actually, I think that must make a fourfold increase in those healed per day in Italy, a reduction in new intensive care cases, and a reduction in deaths per day.
The number of cases is increasing but the prognosis seems to be going in the opposite direction and getting better.
The exponential growth in Italy does seem to have stopped. The number of cases are still increasing though.
Thought we had a graph posted here which showed Italy cases still progressing on a straight line against a logarithmic scale, thus exponentially?
Actually, I think that must make a fourfold increase in those healed per day in Italy, a reduction in new intensive care cases, and a reduction in deaths per day.
The number of cases is increasing but the prognosis seems to be going in the opposite direction and getting better.
The exponential growth in Italy does seem to have stopped. The number of cases are still increasing though.
Thought we had a graph posted here which showed Italy cases still progressing on a straight line against a logarithmic scale, thus exponentially?
I think the last few points showed a slight leveling off. Perhaps that is what they are referring to?
That still leaves the lying cheating thick bell end leading us.
Johnson is a chancer and a charlatan, but he is not Trump. Johnson wants to save lives and will defer to expertise. Trump doesn’t care about anyone or anything but himself.
A lot of us, myself included, thought that Trump might at least try to grow up, if he got the job. At least Johnson is trying.
Have they explained what kind of numbers they think the peak will be? Are we looking at significant growth from here or is the peak going to be lowwwww and sustained?
I think it depends on how effective the timing of the delay measures is. So no, they haven't explained what they think the numbers will be except to outline what the worse case would be with no intervention. As per @DavidL's earlier post that's 1% (deaths) of 80% (infected) of 69m.
I haven’t got even a smidgeon of a doubt about Johnson’s sincerity or that he is deferring to scientific advice. I don’t know if the government’s approach is right. No-one does. I trust absolutely that the decisions it is taking and the recommendations it is making are all about doing what is best for the country and the people in it. Sturgeon is the same, as is just about every political leader in every democracy everywhere. There is just one glaring exception to this rule that I can see.
Us departing from what other nations are doing will cost or save tens of thousands of lives in this country. I'm leaning towards save.
I honestly don't know. But I do understand the underlying logic of what they are trying to do and from a position of relative ignorance all I can do is hope that they are right and take personal actions to protect my family.
When we all have herd immunity, Brits will be able to travel the world with impunity. (Of course, outside the herd we will have to have got ill first)
Who said Brexit couldn’t bring back the days of Empire.
Actually, I think that must make a fourfold increase in those healed per day in Italy, a reduction in new intensive care cases, and a reduction in deaths per day.
The number of cases is increasing but the prognosis seems to be going in the opposite direction and getting better.
The exponential growth in Italy does seem to have stopped. The number of cases are still increasing though.
Thought we had a graph posted here which showed Italy cases still progressing on a straight line against a logarithmic scale, thus exponentially?
I haven’t got even a smidgeon of a doubt about Johnson’s sincerity or that he is deferring to scientific advice. I don’t know if the government’s approach is right. No-one does. I trust absolutely that the decisions it is taking and the recommendations it is making are all about doing what is best for the country and the people in it. Sturgeon is the same, as is just about every political leader in every democracy everywhere. There is just one glaring exception to this rule that I can see.
Well said. I agree, about both Sturgeon and Johnson.
And to be fair, I think the same would be true if Labour were in charge. And I even think the same would be true if Corbyn's Labour were in charge.
I should also say that the scientific expertise in the UK or Germany or France is much higher than in many of the countries that have gone into complete lockdown.
There are not large-scale school closures in the UK or Germany or France (though some schools in the hotspots are shut).
I think that shows that the advice Boris is getting is similar to the advice that Macron or Merkel are getting. That is reassuring.
My son, who does a lot of business with China, reports that 'things' are opening up again. Even in Wuhan factories are starting up again shortly.
I emailed UK HR today about air conditioning. He got in touch with the Head of Health and Safety and they sent me a scan of the official advice concerning air con. I have to say, although it emphasised that so far they don't believe CV is airborne, it was definitely not a ringing endorsement of air conditioning. At all. Switch it off I say.
That still leaves the lying cheating thick bell end leading us.
Johnson is a chancer and a charlatan, but he is not Trump. Johnson wants to save lives and will defer to expertise. Trump doesn’t care about anyone or anything but himself.
As we discussed this morning the key to the government approach is the belief that the spread of this virus cannot be stopped. If it can't everything they are doing to smooth the curve and delay the peak until summer makes perfect sense.
But if the east Asia countries show that belief is wrong we are facing an unnecessary tragedy. Their worst case scenario is 520k dead (65m x 0.8 x 1%). I mean, fuck.
China is currently just over 3k deaths. Are they really saying on the same basis that ultimately 9.6m Chinese may die of this despite all their efforts? It's mindblowing and not supported by the current evidence.
Its a massive call. But the scientists are impressive and measured, there is no denying that. If they are right then China's numbers are likely to start increasing again at some point as they try to return to anything like normal. We shall see.
Id expect it is a mix of both, China will face more waves, and they are not expecting anything like the worse case scenario to happen in the UK. Far more likely something of the level of the 1989 flu.
Sounds like Farage is calling for big state intervention, I am surprised at him. Surely the governments role is to offer advice, but ultimately it is down to individuals to look after themselves? If someone were to catch the virus at a football match or Cheltenham, I think it would be on them for going rather a politician for not banning the public from attending sporting events
That still leaves the lying cheating thick bell end leading us.
Johnson is a chancer and a charlatan, but he is not Trump. Johnson wants to save lives and will defer to expertise. Trump doesn’t care about anyone or anything but himself.
A lot of us, myself included, thought that Trump might at least try to grow up, if he got the job. At least Johnson is trying.
Johnson is showing that he is a fully functioning, intelligent human being capable of seeing beyond himself. We’ll be back to the point scoring and the back and forth soon enough, but on this I trust him and the government to do what they feel is best for the country.
As we discussed this morning the key to the government approach is the belief that the spread of this virus cannot be stopped. If it can't everything they are doing to smooth the curve and delay the peak until summer makes perfect sense.
But if the east Asia countries show that belief is wrong we are facing an unnecessary tragedy. Their worst case scenario is 520k dead (65m x 0.8 x 1%). I mean, fuck.
China is currently just over 3k deaths. Are they really saying on the same basis that ultimately 9.6m Chinese may die of this despite all their efforts? It's mindblowing and not supported by the current evidence.
Its a massive call. But the scientists are impressive and measured, there is no denying that. If they are right then China's numbers are likely to start increasing again at some point as they try to return to anything like normal. We shall see.
However efficient the Asian response, and all the disinfectant being emptied from drones over the Chinese population, it only takes ONE CASE and the whole thing starts all over again. That case doesn’t even have to come from inside China.
That’s why trying to ‘defeat’ the virus by locking the population indoors and dousing their homes with chemicals will ultimately prove futile.
Actually, I think that must make a fourfold increase in those healed per day in Italy, a reduction in new intensive care cases, and a reduction in deaths per day.
The number of cases is increasing but the prognosis seems to be going in the opposite direction and getting better.
The exponential growth in Italy does seem to have stopped. The number of cases are still increasing though.
Thought we had a graph posted here which showed Italy cases still progressing on a straight line against a logarithmic scale, thus exponentially?
Have they explained what kind of numbers they think the peak will be? Are we looking at significant growth from here or is the peak going to be lowwwww and sustained?
I think it depends on how effective the timing of the delay measures is. So no, they haven't explained what they think the numbers will be except to outline what the worse case would be with no intervention. As per @DavidL's earlier post that's 1% (deaths) of 80% (infected) of 69m.
Whilst I am not doubting them I am struggling to understand how the peak is approx 3 months away.
I have a family member with chronic (as in long term) respiratory issues and a school age child. It feels like they are saying that there is fuck all we can do.
Just checked my travel insurance policy doc for our planned (and paid for) trip to NY in May. Had to laugh, they will pay if if I have to cancel because...
"the Foreign and Commonwealth Office issue a directive advising against all, or all but essential travel to your trip destination because of an earthquake, fire, flood, or hurricane."
Just checked my travel insurance policy do for our planned (and paid for) trip to NY in May. Had to laugh, they will pay if if I have to cancel because...
"the Foreign and Commonwealth Office issue a directive advising against all, or all but essential travel to your trip destination because of an earthquake, fire, flood, or hurricane."
As we discussed this morning the key to the government approach is the belief that the spread of this virus cannot be stopped. If it can't everything they are doing to smooth the curve and delay the peak until summer makes perfect sense.
But if the east Asia countries show that belief is wrong we are facing an unnecessary tragedy. Their worst case scenario is 520k dead (65m x 0.8 x 1%). I mean, fuck.
China is currently just over 3k deaths. Are they really saying on the same basis that ultimately 9.6m Chinese may die of this despite all their efforts? It's mindblowing and not supported by the current evidence.
Its a massive call. But the scientists are impressive and measured, there is no denying that. If they are right then China's numbers are likely to start increasing again at some point as they try to return to anything like normal. We shall see.
However efficient the Asian response, and all the disinfectant being emptied from drones over the Chinese population, it only takes ONE CASE and the whole thing starts all over again. That case doesn’t even have to come from inside China.
That’s why trying to ‘defeat’ the virus by locking the population indoors and dousing their homes with chemicals will ultimately prove futile.
And in a western democracy you are not going to be able to lock people indoors under threat of the Party taking away your social credit otherwise.
Sounds like Farage is calling for big state intervention, I am surprised at him. Surely the governments role is to offer advice, but ultimately it is down to individuals to look after themselves? If someone were to catch the virus at a football match or Cheltenham, I think it would be on them for going rather a politician for not banning the public from attending sporting events
Farage can't see a populist bandwagon pass by him without jumping on it. He knows the tabloids will start screaming 'do something' shortly and he wants to be part of the action.
As we discussed this morning the key to the government approach is the belief that the spread of this virus cannot be stopped. If it can't everything they are doing to smooth the curve and delay the peak until summer makes perfect sense.
But if the east Asia countries show that belief is wrong we are facing an unnecessary tragedy. Their worst case scenario is 520k dead (65m x 0.8 x 1%). I mean, fuck.
China is currently just over 3k deaths. Are they really saying on the same basis that ultimately 9.6m Chinese may die of this despite all their efforts? It's mindblowing and not supported by the current evidence.
Its a massive call. But the scientists are impressive and measured, there is no denying that. If they are right then China's numbers are likely to start increasing again at some point as they try to return to anything like normal. We shall see.
Id expect it is a mix of both, China will face more waves, and they are not expecting anything like the worse case scenario to happen in the UK. Far more likely something of the level of the 1989 flu.
I'd agree - tens of thousands of deaths is probably the most likely (also the inclination of Foxy in a thread we had this morning)
I’m assuming you are not suggesting equivalent dangerousness, just that the enhanced measures taken to combat this will make the end result comparable?
Trump must have it then? Weren’t they at a conference together.
Likely scenario... Trump has it, gets top medical care, survives relatively unscathed, tells America it's nothing to worry about and to continue as normal.
As we discussed this morning the key to the government approach is the belief that the spread of this virus cannot be stopped. If it can't everything they are doing to smooth the curve and delay the peak until summer makes perfect sense.
But if the east Asia countries show that belief is wrong we are facing an unnecessary tragedy. Their worst case scenario is 520k dead (65m x 0.8 x 1%). I mean, fuck.
China is currently just over 3k deaths. Are they really saying on the same basis that ultimately 9.6m Chinese may die of this despite all their efforts? It's mindblowing and not supported by the current evidence.
Its a massive call. But the scientists are impressive and measured, there is no denying that. If they are right then China's numbers are likely to start increasing again at some point as they try to return to anything like normal. We shall see.
Id expect it is a mix of both, China will face more waves, and they are not expecting anything like the worse case scenario to happen in the UK. Far more likely something of the level of the 1989 flu.
I'd agree - tens of thousands of deaths is probably the most likely (also the inclination of Foxy in a thread we had this morning)
The CMO under questioning appears to buy into the high infection rate, low mortality view. But based on the numbers he gave, we’re looking at low hundreds of thousands, at least. I think Johnson knows this when he interrupted his comment about ‘many’ families facing the early departure of a loved one to say ‘very many’.
One thing not much commented on when discussing U.K. versus other countries. I have seen very few other major countries with such a single command and control function across the country. Or in England certainly - the situation in Scotland/wales is complicated because the levers to pull are shared.
That puts us in a much better position to follow a plan and act quickly, consistently and decisively in reaction (or pro action) to changing circumstances. Other countries seem far more mixed in having local leaders taking decisions and potentially undermining national strategy. Although in the US I think they are doing it out of desperation.
Have they explained what kind of numbers they think the peak will be? Are we looking at significant growth from here or is the peak going to be lowwwww and sustained?
I think it depends on how effective the timing of the delay measures is. So no, they haven't explained what they think the numbers will be except to outline what the worse case would be with no intervention. As per @DavidL's earlier post that's 1% (deaths) of 80% (infected) of 69m.
Whilst I am not doubting them I am struggling to understand how the peak is approx 3 months away.
I have a family member with chronic (as in long term) respiratory issues and a school age child. It feels like they are saying that there is fuck all we can do.
Not good if we are reliant on Boris and that bunch of donkeys in the cabinet for sure, you can only hope someone else is running the show.
Have they explained what kind of numbers they think the peak will be? Are we looking at significant growth from here or is the peak going to be lowwwww and sustained?
I think it depends on how effective the timing of the delay measures is. So no, they haven't explained what they think the numbers will be except to outline what the worse case would be with no intervention. As per @DavidL's earlier post that's 1% (deaths) of 80% (infected) of 69m.
Whilst I am not doubting them I am struggling to understand how the peak is approx 3 months away.
I have a family member with chronic (as in long term) respiratory issues and a school age child. It feels like they are saying that there is fuck all we can do.
Because we will probably have to go through the lockdown - epidemic cycle more than once. Which needs time.
Your child is probably OK, the odds are well in his or her favour.
Your relative will have to endeavour to stay out of risk for much of this year, waiting for the end state that so many people are immune that the chances of coming into contact with a carrier become low again. Just like normal flu.
As we discussed this morning the key to the government approach is the belief that the spread of this virus cannot be stopped. If it can't everything they are doing to smooth the curve and delay the peak until summer makes perfect sense.
But if the east Asia countries show that belief is wrong we are facing an unnecessary tragedy. Their worst case scenario is 520k dead (65m x 0.8 x 1%). I mean, fuck.
China is currently just over 3k deaths. Are they really saying on the same basis that ultimately 9.6m Chinese may die of this despite all their efforts? It's mindblowing and not supported by the current evidence.
Its a massive call. But the scientists are impressive and measured, there is no denying that. If they are right then China's numbers are likely to start increasing again at some point as they try to return to anything like normal. We shall see.
Id expect it is a mix of both, China will face more waves, and they are not expecting anything like the worse case scenario to happen in the UK. Far more likely something of the level of the 1989 flu.
I'd agree - tens of thousands of deaths is probably the most likely (also the inclination of Foxy in a thread we had this morning)
The CMO under questioning appears to buy into the high infection rate, low mortality view. But based on the numbers he gave, we’re looking at low hundreds of thousands, at least. I think Johnson knows this when he interrupted his comment about ‘many’ families facing the early departure of a loved one to say ‘very many’.
If we were to the use the current progression of figures in Italy as our model, it doesn't appear as it may be that bad, but ofcourse the disease may develop differently in different places.
One thing not much commented on when discussing U.K. versus other countries. I have seen very few other major countries with such a single command and control function across the country. Or in England certainly - the situation in Scotland/wales is complicated because the levers to pull are shared.
That puts us in a much better position to follow a plan and act quickly, consistently and decisively in reaction (or pro action) to changing circumstances. Other countries seem far more mixed in having local leaders taking decisions and potentially undermining national strategy. Although in the US I think they are doing it out of desperation.
I have been making this point comparing the UK and Germany for weeks. The UK system is very centralised and the German system very devolved. The German system is better for treating individuals but not so effective for dealing with public health at the national level.
That still leaves the lying cheating thick bell end leading us.
"Us"... I knew there'd be silver linings! Countries do pull together in times like these
Merely an acknowledgment of constitutional reality. However if you want to turn 'Iet's all get behind the lying cheating thick bell end' as a clarion call for unity, go for it.
As we discussed this morning the key to the government approach is the belief that the spread of this virus cannot be stopped. If it can't everything they are doing to smooth the curve and delay the peak until summer makes perfect sense.
But if the east Asia countries show that belief is wrong we are facing an unnecessary tragedy. Their worst case scenario is 520k dead (65m x 0.8 x 1%). I mean, fuck.
China is currently just over 3k deaths. Are they really saying on the same basis that ultimately 9.6m Chinese may die of this despite all their efforts? It's mindblowing and not supported by the current evidence.
Its a massive call. But the scientists are impressive and measured, there is no denying that. If they are right then China's numbers are likely to start increasing again at some point as they try to return to anything like normal. We shall see.
Id expect it is a mix of both, China will face more waves, and they are not expecting anything like the worse case scenario to happen in the UK. Far more likely something of the level of the 1989 flu.
I'd agree - tens of thousands of deaths is probably the most likely (also the inclination of Foxy in a thread we had this morning)
The CMO under questioning appears to buy into the high infection rate, low mortality view. But based on the numbers he gave, we’re looking at low hundreds of thousands, at least. I think Johnson knows this when he interrupted his comment about ‘many’ families facing the early departure of a loved one to say ‘very many’.
If we were to the use the current progression of figures in Italy as our model, it doesn't appear as it may be that bad, but ofcourse the disease may develop differently in different places.
Italy seems to be taking a harder, earlier intervention approach.
If I understand the counter-argument properly, Italy's approach may slow things down now but it is not sustainable and as soon as they relax the restrictions case numbers will soar again.
I'd like to know what the average age is in these small towns in northern Italy. I'm guessing it's much higher than the Italian average, which is already very high.
Have they explained what kind of numbers they think the peak will be? Are we looking at significant growth from here or is the peak going to be lowwwww and sustained?
I think it depends on how effective the timing of the delay measures is. So no, they haven't explained what they think the numbers will be except to outline what the worse case would be with no intervention. As per @DavidL's earlier post that's 1% (deaths) of 80% (infected) of 69m.
Whilst I am not doubting them I am struggling to understand how the peak is approx 3 months away.
I have a family member with chronic (as in long term) respiratory issues and a school age child. It feels like they are saying that there is fuck all we can do.
Because we will probably have to go through the lockdown - epidemic cycle more than once. Which needs time.
Your child is probably OK, the odds are well in his or her favour.
Your relative will have to endeavour to stay out of risk for much of this year, waiting for the end state that so many people are immune that the chances of coming into contact with a carrier become low again. Just like normal flu.
The family member is my wife. Continuing on with life as normal would make it impossible for her to avoid risk, for one she'd be in contact with me and my child every day! Then there are the days she does the school runs, after school activities etc.
< Italy seems to be taking a harder, earlier intervention approach.
If I understand the counter-argument properly, Italy's approach may slow things down now but it is not sustainable and as soon as they relax the restrictions case numbers will soar again. >
The thing that interests me is that case numbers are still rising pretty substantially, though - it's the outcomes that seem to be getting better.
Have they explained what kind of numbers they think the peak will be? Are we looking at significant growth from here or is the peak going to be lowwwww and sustained?
I think it depends on how effective the timing of the delay measures is. So no, they haven't explained what they think the numbers will be except to outline what the worse case would be with no intervention. As per @DavidL's earlier post that's 1% (deaths) of 80% (infected) of 69m.
Whilst I am not doubting them I am struggling to understand how the peak is approx 3 months away.
I have a family member with chronic (as in long term) respiratory issues and a school age child. It feels like they are saying that there is fuck all we can do.
Because we will probably have to go through the lockdown - epidemic cycle more than once. Which needs time.
Your child is probably OK, the odds are well in his or her favour.
Your relative will have to endeavour to stay out of risk for much of this year, waiting for the end state that so many people are immune that the chances of coming into contact with a carrier become low again. Just like normal flu.
The family member is my wife. Continuing on with life as normal would make it impossible for her to avoid risk, for one she'd be in contact with me and my child every day! Then there are the days she does the school runs, after school activities etc.
You will have to decide to what extent you are able or willing to change your living arrangements to reduce the chances of infection. Beyond that, there is nothing anyone else can do.
Comments
I don't know if they are right on this but it makes sense that if there is no immunity then in reality the only way the lockdown system can work is to have it in place permanently and of such rigour that ever single case is captured. As soon as you remove the lockdown, if any cases ay all have survived, then you are straight back where you were again.
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/our-views-and-research/our-letters/letter-coronovirus-and-its-impact-may-polls
What are you supposed to do if you are an elevated risk group but you have dependents? Goverbent says you should just carry and change nothing. So many people are going to get sick because their work and or child's school won't co-operate with them
It may be a message for another day, but I'm not sure it will go down well.
NB Paul Masterton was a Conservative MP up to the last election.
Those are figures which will be far more revealing about how we or others are managing, and in comparison to each other, and which approaches are more successful (whilst accounting for variable differences between countries’ circumstances)
Do we have any of a statistical meaningful size?
But if the east Asia countries show that belief is wrong we are facing an unnecessary tragedy. Their worst case scenario is 520k dead (65m x 0.8 x 1%). I mean, fuck.
China is currently just over 3k deaths. Are they really saying on the same basis that ultimately 9.6m Chinese may die of this despite all their efforts? It's mindblowing and not supported by the current evidence.
Its a massive call. But the scientists are impressive and measured, there is no denying that. If they are right then China's numbers are likely to start increasing again at some point as they try to return to anything like normal. We shall see.
I guess when they turn out like that, we'll know things are really critical.
And to be fair, I think the same would be true if Labour were in charge. And I even think the same would be true if Corbyn's Labour were in charge.
I should also say that the scientific expertise in the UK or Germany or France is much higher than in many of the countries that have gone into complete lockdown.
There are not large-scale school closures in the UK or Germany or France (though some schools in the hotspots are shut).
I think that shows that the advice Boris is getting is similar to the advice that Macron or Merkel are getting. That is reassuring.
Who said Brexit couldn’t bring back the days of Empire.
https://twitter.com/politicususa/status/1238157624874618880?s=21
And the one element he missed was age. A lot more Republicans could die than Democrats. Equally for Conservatives in the UK.
That’s why trying to ‘defeat’ the virus by locking the population indoors and dousing their homes with chemicals will ultimately prove futile.
What would be insane would be to carry out a series of measures and ignore what people would do in response
I have a family member with chronic (as in long term) respiratory issues and a school age child. It feels like they are saying that there is fuck all we can do.
"the Foreign and Commonwealth Office issue a directive advising against all, or all but essential travel to your trip destination because of an earthquake, fire, flood, or hurricane."
... so not Pandemic. Why am I not surprised?
And that was mainly me.
People keep trying to justify her price in the market.
There is no justification. She’s a big name and an ex First Lady. And she’s arrogant enough to occasionally tweet “what if?”.
That’s it.
That puts us in a much better position to follow a plan and act quickly, consistently and decisively in reaction (or pro action) to changing circumstances. Other countries seem far more mixed in having local leaders taking decisions and potentially undermining national strategy. Although in the US I think they are doing it out of desperation.
Coherent, measured and presidential. He’s like a different guy.
Excellent.
Your child is probably OK, the odds are well in his or her favour.
Your relative will have to endeavour to stay out of risk for much of this year, waiting for the end state that so many people are immune that the chances of coming into contact with a carrier become low again. Just like normal flu.
Italy seems to be taking a harder, earlier intervention approach.
If I understand the counter-argument properly, Italy's approach may slow things down now but it is not sustainable and as soon as they relax the restrictions case numbers will soar again.
If I understand the counter-argument properly, Italy's approach may slow things down now but it is not sustainable and as soon as they relax the restrictions case numbers will soar again. >
The thing that interests me is that case numbers are still rising pretty substantially, though - it's the outcomes that seem to be getting better.